Ryan Casselman is an Academy Awards enthusiast who spends a good chunk of the year wondering who will win Best Picture. This KZread channel is dedicated to following the awards season leading up to Oscar night by looking closely at previous years, precursors, stats, and current momentum.
In addition to being following the Oscar race, he is also a freelance filmmaker from San Diego, CA. He now lives in Los Angeles area as the co-founder of the production company, Focus Group Media.
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I’m picking Emma Stone.
Is there any lesbian scenes?
Well I saw the audience score for kinds of kindness 😬😬😬😬🙃🙃
I lost respect for Emma Stone. I will not watch anymore of her films. She’s typecasted now.
Samoan here. The word fafaine is not only supposed to describe the masculinity and femininity of a person, it’s also used to describe someone that’s gay or lesbian or whatever the person may be in that sexual orientation
Just saw it yesterday in NC. Knew almost nothing about it before going in. It blew me away. Keith Klupferer should be nominated for an Academy Award. Best movie of 2024 to date!
I enjoyed your review thanks. I just saw this film and it felt quite authentic. Nice to have normal looking actors who seemed like real people. (I thought it was fantastic casting until I learned the parents and daughter are in fact as such!) This movie was deeply touching.
You need to watch Buffy.
instead of disliking I'll just share this. I haven't seen world fair, nor do I plan on it. I was hoping to get an idea of what this movie would be like, nonetheless.
This movie could have been a masterpiece. At the end, I thought WTF did I just watch? Having been to Australia as a tourist it didn't capture the full depth of character of the outback.
I watched both movies and although the atmosphere was nice for a moment, it just felt empty and pretentious unless you can relate to the queerness of what the director/writer is trying to convey.
This film MOVED me. Something that films don’t do very often. At least not in the way Ghostlight did. I was at the opening screening at Sundance, and I couldn’t have asked for a better way to start the festival.
I think you might be a little off this year. Not a lot of obvious big contenders that jump out to me.
Its a direct ripoff of the creepypasta Candle Cove. Syfy channel put it in their Channel Zero series.
It's not even close to a ripoff of Candlecove
Here’s my predictions for best animated feature film Inside out 2 Moana 2 Kung fu panda 4 Despicable me 4 Ryans world the movie titan universe adventure
Really Kung Fu Panda 4, Moana 2 and Despicable Me? And no Wild Robot
@@teamrainbow7674 well these are predictions
Fitting description as I find the lead actor unsettling, must have the greatest manager ever though I won’t see any movie that casts him
Killer flick. Prob the best film of the year thus far.
I understand Wicked kinda looking bad, but I don’t think that fully discounts it? Globe nom is likely, maybe PGA - directors previous film In the Heights was very well received Potential actress nom for Erivo, and craft noms Yes The Color Purple failed to land with the Oscars, but Wicked has way more clout than TCP and West Side Story still landed in 2021 so the academy certainly aren’t anti-musicals
This movie to me was perfect. Idk if it was just me and my friends but Owen was definite trans having her real self being a woman. Owen at the end of the movie was given multiple chances to see who they are but kept running and I think many can relate to that.
As a trans woman, there were so many parts that resonated with me as someone that transitioned later in life. The fact that no one else ever sees Maddy, or interacts with Maddy ( reminds me of "The Sixth Sense in this ), makes me wonder if she is just Owen's inner self bursting to come out... He never tells the mother or father about Maddy,... we never see Maddy's parents. "Running away" to me seems Like a metaphor for coming out and transitioning even if it means cutting off contact with family. As someone that never came out til after my parents passed,.... Owen's life seems to be VERY spot on. She keeps telling him he needs to bury himself before he suffocates and dies, and before I transitioned, that was exactly how I was feeling,... I needed to put deadname in the grave.... before I died, to live. It also seems interesting to me that Maddy at one point in the film tells Owen..." My name's not Maddy!!!" That's because in my opinion Maddy is Owen's inner self. We also see Owen in a dress,... and in femme presentation in the grave... The Pink Opaque is a McGuffin. It's an excuse to get the movie going. It is a Horror film because the increasing dread of life passing without living is something even cis-gender people experience,... I sincerely think for any movie-goers struggling with this film look up who Jane is. They are Transgender and clearly this film came from their experience dealing with the struggles leading to their egg cracking, ....and after. From a trans woman that experienced it,... and has finally buried her deadname, and found her own heart,... Living the rest of their life, as deadname, to me is utterly horrifying. I know I will probably get some comments from people that on the one hand may say I am seeing things that are not there,... or on the other say " I didn't get it." I do find it interesting that this movie was recommended to me Three separate times, by three trans women that I saw with zero spoilers, or expectations.... and I came away with it, to discuss it with them,....and they were like " OMG right???" For the cis,... it can simply be an allegory about existing in fear, afraid to really live, ... and what happens when you let life pass without exploring a life. To those of us in the queer community,... chances are we see a different story, and it has a different theme. I sincerely hope others are not quick to discount this film because it does not follow the same ol' same ol' that conservative ( meaning afraid to take risks,... Kinda Like Owen ... hmmmm ) filmmakers prefer to put out....
@@clarissanavarro2762Me and my friend (I'm cis she's trans) see Maddy as more of an actual character. A friend that realizes it's impossible for her to fit in and experiments with her life, by both literally and metaphorically leaving her old life behind. She comes back to attempt to help Owen, no aware of who she is and what she feels. I think interpreting pink opaque as a McGuffin is a little dismissive tbh. The show represents fantasy and escapism, much like how real shows work. From what I understand, a lot of trans people specially really found solace and a way to live their true selves in media, when they couldn't even admit to themselves they weren't being authentic to themselves. I think that's more-so what the show means, which is why Isabelle takes on a different skin color in Owen's memories than in the actual show, and why Owen literally walks in Isabelle's shoes towards the beginning of the film.
@@radiofloyd2359 Interesting thought, and you are right it was dismissive. I guess I did not see it as " seeking to escape in media". At the time I sought to escape almost entirely in books. I would always be carrying a few with me, and spent all my time reading. I did not see "Pink Opaque" beyond the surface level.... my mind is too literal minded, blaming it on my Tism Brain. Thank you so much for your comment it opens up the movie even more for me now.
@@clarissanavarro2762 I'm glad my interpretation brought even more meaning out of the film for you ❤️
The film succeeds in provoking conversation. However, it feels like a college project with a budget. There are too many weaknesses in character development, dialogue, and a lack of coherence to justify how much this film is getting praised.
The lack of character development is the point. Owen does not grow, they just get old. The dialogue is intended to feel somewhat broken, as the entire film is framed as unreliable memories that are being reexperienced after the fact. The film is entirely coherent, it's just very unapologetic with its queer themes, to the point where if someone doesn't have a minimum understanding of what gender dysphoria is often described as by trans people, a lot of the decisions in the film will feel entirely arbitrary.
This movie was shit. The acting was shit. It just felt pretentious and made specifically to be shown at Sundance
It was so insanely boring
Maybe for you
@@malination884 na. It was crazy boring. Multiple ppl fell asleep
Sounds like you're bad at watching movies
@thedudewhoeatspianos nope, that's exactly why the movie was trash. I watched it and literally nothing happened. Candy for babies
@@DashMcdash-gz4qq I'm sorry that your favorite superhero didn't show up and have a big fight with a CGI villain, but when adults watch movies we don't need to see an explosion every few minutes. You'll see when you're bigger.
I'm surprised I didn't walk out of this movie.
I had that feeling as well with about 20 minutes to go. The film was frustrating in that I thought there was potential for an outstanding story but it never truly came together.
@@jamescook4116 It came together perfectly,... you simply probably lacked the life experiences that make a Lot of this allegory make sense.
@@clarissanavarro2762 So basically, if you didn't go through a crisis of gender identity the film won't make sense? C'mon, that is cheap and lazy. The film has major holes in character development and dialogue. More like a college film project with a budget.
@@jamescook4116 I find it interesring that you invalidate my understanding of the film that resonated with me, a lot of my queer friends, the stated interviews of the cast that i saw after I saw the film, and the process the director admitted they went through, in making this movie. But hey, big surprise... some cis-het guy didn't get it, therefore, the movie sucks. look, I get that you are used to films being about you, and hate when a few aren't. This time it's not about you. Some movies are linear and Hollywood cookie cutter intended for you. This one wasn't. It is sad that you could have come away with a different experience that may have awakened a new understanding about queerness,as the director intended, but instead you felt challenged by material that came from a perspective, not cis-het, and you chose instead to reject what it was, because you did not like the unfamiliar. No worries. 80% of movies are all about you. Not all need to be, though. I'm fine with that.
@@jamescook4116 PS. I saw it as gender identity, but Any queer experience that involves a struggle about whether or not to come out of the closet works. It's just that trans works better.
Not my movie happy the actors. got work I did not understand the story on screen and would have to watch the movie 3 times to get it
Me personally I love weird movies one of my favorite movies last was Beau is Afraid and I really Dug Dream scenario too so I'd Definitely give this a watch I'm sure probably makes more sense then watching a buch of photo realistic Apes act human in another Planet movie or watching Chris Pine try to recapture the brilliance of the Dude in the Poolman 🙄 this sounds better than that 😉
Shoot. I just saw it and was very confused and bored. I felt like the movie ended right when it was starting to get interesting.
Okay but where's the best actress I said June Squibb for Thelma
Why do you have the yogos film at number 1 be for real for a minute it’s not happening
Bird is getting in. Period
Stay tune for Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez
I just got home from the theater and I LOVE this movie. The symbolism and the message is so well done. Maddy's monologue and the final scene really brought the movie home for me. A lot of the movie's message comes through in imagery and metaphors, which reminded me of Sorry To Bother You, and it can be interpreted in different ways, but my ultimate take away from this movie was: We're all dying. Grow some balls and live life on your own terms. Grow through your death and rebirth. Grow into someone who has courage and takes risks or you might regret it.
agreed
Excellent job with your video. I think some other international films at this years Cannes that could be in contention for the so called “international slot” are Paolo Sorrentino’s Parthenope, Jia Zhang-ke’s Caught By the Tides, and Magnus Von Horn’s The Girl With the Needle
Horizon: An American Saga not on the list? I have it at number 1. The trailer sold me as well crafted Oscar bait, has a populist message, gets at the feels, big production with chances for lots of noms, could make a dent at the box office. I know it's been a while since Dances with Wolves but that did win Best Picture and sweep the Oscars with almost the same pitch. It'll probably be a little controversial and it isn't loaded with talent but it's one of the only contenders with actual footage and I think it's solidly in.
Fair enough. I just get vibes that it's a general audience push and not made for awards. And then you have the logistics of having to nominate one part and having a consensus on what part is better. We'll see. I'm actually looking forward to seeing it though. Costner hasn't been in the directing saddle in a very long time and love that he's releasing in two parts in the same year. Cheers! 🙃
@@RyanCasselman The release date does suggest it's an audience push but if it turns out to be a crowdpleaser that should help it. And I'm definitely curious how the two part aspect will play out. I think they'll just award the second for both and Joker 2 might have more difficulty as a sequel. We should have a good sense after the Cannes debut.
Cate winslet ...lee They release trailer of film The film piopic aboout lee miller... I think will make some thing in next seasion of film
I was at TIFF when the film premiered. The buzz was very soft unfortunately. 😢
kinds of kindness is not getting in, every sign is off; why would you out it at #1 if its so unsure even in your opinion? makes no sense? over Dune 2? Sing Sing?
Joker 2 lets gooo
What about ‘The Wild Robot’? I think it could win animated feature and possibly get a few nominees including Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay. I mean, come on, it’s made by Chris Sanders who made Lilo & Stitch and How to Train Your Dragon.
I really really want to see The Wild Robot in Best Picture, but the Academy hasn't nominated an animated film in Best Picture since Toy Story 3 almost 15 years ago. All 3 of the animated films to be nominated for Best Picture in the past have been Disney or Pixar films. Not to mention, last year both The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Verse couldn't get any nominations outside of Animated Feature. I'm not saying it's impossible for The Wild Robot to hit, but the odds are not in its favour. Hopefully, I'm wrong though.
No challengers? Challengers movie of the year
how come no Challengrs on your list??
Even with so many films delayed this year due to the strikes, it still looks like it could be a decent year of good films! I don't understand so many people predicting The Apprentice. Who is the audience for this? People feel VERY strongly about Trump one way or the other. People who love Trump will be really angry if there anything negative about him in the film. People who loathe Trump will be angry unless it leans in to the negatives. And completely non-political people (like those that never vote) are already tired of hearing about him since it's a Presidential election year. Add to that Trump is currently on trial in a criminal case. That only leaves "film" focused apolitical people. Looking forward to Sing Sing - all the reviews are stellar. Really hoping Joker pulls it off - I'm hopeful based on the first film. Big fan of Barry Keoghan so I will see Bird, but not feeling like it will be a contender.
7/10 last year- impressive
I just don’t have faith in an anthology at the Oscars. Don’t see Kinds of Kindness hitting
You might be right. June release date too. That should have probably told me what I needed to know right there.
No Challengers?!!! Not even in the top 20???
Yeah? Challengers is not the type of film that will get nominated. There are at least 20 that are more likely
@@MrGoat-cd8lt and EEAAO was? Enough with this argument... The Academy is evolving and embracing new genres and types of films. Challengers is incredible and it's a film people are passionate about. I don't see why it can't get nominated.
it's not even oscar worthy
If voting were next week, Challengers would likely crack the 10. But I'm planning for the end of the year, so I'd rather push my chips on unknown films. I didn't rank Challengers high for the same reason I didn't rank Air incredibly high last year. Just keeping those spots open for the Fall films.
@@MrGoat-cd8lt If I could, I'd suggest an new Oscar: BestScreen Duo for the two actors with the best chemistry. They can be a couple (like Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet in Titanic), siblings (like Dan Aykroyd and John Belushi in Blues Brothers), a parent and their kid (like Shirley MacLaine and Debra Winger in Terms of Endearment), friends (like Tim Robbins and Morgan Freeman in The Shawshank Redemption) or even enemies (like Charlton Heston and Yul Brynner in The Ten Commandments). If that was an actual award, I think Zendaya could get nominated with one of the guys.
If emma stone is nominated for best actress, how is she going to present best actress at next year's ceremony?
She may present best actor then.
Amy adam better not win her oscar for a movie named night bitch.
No "Challengers"? A Trump movie? I don't know about your 10. The Mad Max predecessor didn't have great CGI, but serviceable for the crazy adrenaline inducing film.
Queer is more likely to get in over Challengers for Guadagnino, more of an Oscar bait
@@theprime6439 I don’t know. It could be possible that they’d push Queer for 2025 or Challengers getting in over Queer or vise versa with both having chances at possible acting nods 🤷♂️
@@nitsugazemag yeah that’s true tbf either all I think both will deserve some credit when it comes to the awards
"A Trump movie" You make it sound like Trump directed it. It's an Ali Abbasi movie.
@@FrakkinToasterLuvva I feel there are better/more deserving movies to mention over one about a polarizing figure during an election year of all times. The more attention we give him, the more he’s emboldened whether it’s good/bad publicity in his favor. Whether it’s good, that is yet to be determined, but to predict it in a top 10 this early is giving more credence to a movie about Trump. Just my opinion, I guess.
*If I Nominated for Best Picture 2024 Today Without Giving an F:* (ordered alphabetically out of 30+ new releases seen) - _Cabrini_ _Challengers_ _Civil War_ _Dune: Part Two_ _Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire_ _Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire_ _Love Lies Bleeding_ _Miller’s Girl_ _Problemista_ _Sasquatch Sunset_
I still can’t believe Widows was completely shut out that year. One of my favorite performances by Viola Davis
Dogshit movie
I know, huh! I actually re-watched it a few months ago. Holds up pretty well.
Interesting. Good picks!
Love your videos! Rooting for Joker Folie a Deux this year, excited for another Gaga press tour😂
Thanks! I can't wait either!