Пікірлер

• 
  @srks30823 сағат бұрын

  God evening, One correction at time stamp 20:47 : Along with QT of 95 billion $ per month, there is US debt ceiling agreement reached i.e. Bond issue since June 2023 (which you explained in earlier videos) also which is contributing 100 billion $ per month.(whether it continued till date not mentioned).........so total out flow 195 billion $. Due to RRP inflow approximately 159 billion $..... accordingly liquidity out flow very little 40 billion $ per month. Is my understanding correct?

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  @srks30825 сағат бұрын

  Thanks Mr. Guha..... Hope can able to utilize this strategy and execute.....🌳🌳🍀🍀🌿🌿🌾🌾💐💐

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  @srks30823 сағат бұрын

  @IndraanilGuha Good evening, I raised one correction in RRP videoat time stamp 20:47, just now as comment. Can you review please.

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  @MahalingamJ-zi7fe8 сағат бұрын

  Excellant. Profound thanks.

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  @IndraanilGuha3 сағат бұрын

  Many Thanks... Glad You liked the content

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  @user-yg3lw3jg6x9 сағат бұрын

  Great video. Can you suggest historic trend / impact on real estate of the rate cuts?

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  @srks308214 сағат бұрын

  Excellent Mr. Guha...... it's like listening to a story teller......👍👍🤝🤝

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  @IndraanilGuha3 сағат бұрын

  Many Thanks... Glad You liked the video

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  @srks30823 сағат бұрын

  @@IndraanilGuha Good evening, I raised one correction in RRP videoat time stamp 20:47, just now as comment. Can you review please.

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  @ajayparui890616 сағат бұрын

  Where to get these charts of yeild and balance in Rrp which u showed

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  @sadanandnayak2382Күн бұрын

  Very w

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  @user-ui2uy6yb5rКүн бұрын

  Please zmake more videos i feel like we are in a very bug bubble now and i need some information from an actual wealth manager please make more videos !

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  @user-ui2uy6yb5rКүн бұрын

  Every minute and every word you say is important to us , please do continue and support with some data. Can you also show a chart of how gold responds when there is recession? My question here is , can i waitfor a period of 3 months post fed rate cut, move fully from equity to gold and then buy back at the dip?

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  @mehtavishalk2 күн бұрын

  Great video Indranil. Insighful and easy to understand. I have subscribed to your channel and looking forward to hear more from you. Good luck!!!

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  @IndraanilGuhaКүн бұрын

  Many Thanks... Glad You liked the video

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  @sandipdalal48112 күн бұрын

  अगर यह वीडियो आपने हिंदी में बताया होता बनाया होता तो ज्यादा लोगों को यूजफुल रहता

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  @sandipdalal48112 күн бұрын

  भाई भारत में कितने लोग अंग्रेजी जानते हैं अंग्रेजी भाषा का प्रयोग करते हैं

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  @rohitchandra5762 күн бұрын

  Very nice

• 
  @MahalingamJ-zi7fe2 күн бұрын

  Excellant analysis God Bless You.

• 
  @georgeearling9052 күн бұрын

  Every month I try to allocate a portion of my income into high yield investments. But I’m curious, how feasible is it to make my yearly salary in just one month without jeopardizing my portfolio.

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  @V.stones2 күн бұрын

  It’s definitely possible but extremely risky. You’d have to dive into high risk, high reward investments like cryptocurrencies or penny stocks. The current state of the US economy, with its volatility makes it even riskier.

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  @rodgertim28812 күн бұрын

  I tried something similar last year and ended up losing a significant amount of my portfolio. With inflation and market fluctuations it’s better to stick with more stable investment unless you have a solid backup plan and can afford potential losses.

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  @sebastiaanthijn79822 күн бұрын

  My portfolio took a hit when I attempted aggressive trading strategies. Now I’m more conservative, focusing on long term growth and capital preservation

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  @AliciaCrone2 күн бұрын

  You’re not doing anything wrong, the problem is that you don’t have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only high qualified professionals who had experienced the 2008 financial crisis could help to earn a high in these challenging conditions

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  @cherylhills32272 күн бұрын

  Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful

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  @neov97213 күн бұрын

  Dude, dont worry to speak your mind and let people term you Negative and s****. What you saying is true and those who do not wish to listen n course correct, let them.

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  @sugathasagar3 күн бұрын

  #Armageddon #Minus60percent #Recession ❤

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  @sanchitgera80743 күн бұрын

  Amazing video sir .. thankyou so much for sharing such in-depth knowledge

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  @RoyalRajwadaPhotography3 күн бұрын

  amazing video very helpful, thank you sir.

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  @rajs53973 күн бұрын

  Peter Lynch - 'Bearish argument sounds intellectual' reality is nobody knows whether we are headed for Japan like markets or if we are headed for crash

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  @zhedge57914 күн бұрын

  On your recommendation of exit , tming the market is almost impossible. Fed usually cuts the rate when the economy slows. Since the data fed gets is a lagged one, when fed realises there is a sluggishness, it would be already in a recession. So you dont want to get out when the economy is going to get a boost from a rate cut. You might want to get out, if you realise there is a fundamental issue somewhere. If you are good enough to identify that- go ahead and exit. Otherwise it is foolish exercise.

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  @bharathkrishna67764 күн бұрын

  Hi @IndraanilGuha. Is there a reason for even long term investors (10-15 years) to exit their portfolio? How else can one benefit from compounding, averaging, dividends & bonuses? Would greatly appreciate if you can respond

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  @IndraanilGuha4 күн бұрын

  The short answer to your question is that - NO, there's no need to take any action or disturb your SIPs if indeed you are a long term investor! But the nuanced answer is that - most real world investors are humans after all and it's but natural that humans do get impacted by basic human emotions of greed and fear, and it's NOT easy to manage these two emotions when things go to the extremes. For e.g. when NIFTY crashed by 38% in March 2020 at the time of the onset of the pandemic, your SIP returns, even if you were doing a SIP for the last 10 years would have gone down to close to 0%, in some cases even negative! Can you imagine - doing a SIP for not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4, not 5, but 10 long years, and then getting to see zero or negative returns! Believe me - its's NOT easy to manage emotions during such times! And I say this because I am (and was in March 2020 as well) in the business of managing money for my own family and that of my clients, and I saw how emotions ran in case of my cleints back then, and even in my own case back then! Yes, today with the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to sermonize that those who had the steel to NOT react and stop their SIPs back in March 2020 are today sitting on high double digits returns once again.... but most such Prophets either weren't there in markets themselves back in March 2020, or if they were, then they didn't quite act with as steely resolve!

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  @bharathkrishna67764 күн бұрын

  @@IndraanilGuha Thanks! Really appreciate! These insights can’t be found googling or even by asking Chat GPT. I shall go back to the drawing board & figure out the math if booking partial profits (over & above the capital), parking the money until the tide settles & reinvesting back again when the overall sentiments are in extreme fear. 🪴

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  @IndraanilGuha4 күн бұрын

  But don't book profit, even partially right now... that would be premature.. As I have stressed in this video, the most violent part of the melt-up is arguably ahead of us and likely to be triggered once the Fed starts cutting rates

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  @ashishunplugged244 күн бұрын

  very well explained

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  @IndraanilGuha4 күн бұрын

  Many thanks, glad you liked my video

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  @buchananfrensky14044 күн бұрын

  Guha Jake guh kha

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  @NGHK1234 күн бұрын

  In the 2020 crash the nifty pe made a bottom at 19. So even if a crash comes we cannot go below 19 PE. Therefore nifty cannot fall more than 20%.

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  @suprobhosantra4 күн бұрын

  Why the fed rate cut is prerequisite for recession? It may so happen that as the fed is delaying the cuts, the economy will slip into recession even before the rate is actually cut.

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  @IndraanilGuha4 күн бұрын

  Entirely possible... But hasn't happened so far! Recessions have so far started only after the start of rate cuts! But I agree, there is no reason that this historical precedence has to necessarily hold in future too

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  @shahfareed4 күн бұрын

  I am unable to adequately express my appreciation for the exceptional manner in which you elucidated the subject matter. Although I have not yet joined any channels, my intuition strongly suggests that I should do so in your case. Your profound knowledge is truly awe-inspiring.

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  @shahfareed4 күн бұрын

  I am pleased to have discovered your channel when it had only 20,000 subscribers. Within a few years, this channel has the potential to reach millions of subscribers, and I would be honored to have joined at an early stage.

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  @IndraanilGuha4 күн бұрын

  Many thanks @shahfareed for these extraordinarily kind words Glad you liked my content

• 
  @logesh99084 күн бұрын

  Your analysis makes sense...

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  @IndraanilGuha4 күн бұрын

  Many thanks Glad you liked my content

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  @Aljadhaniya4 күн бұрын

  increase price of rice. wheat for export. get money from foreign and invest

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  @shahfareed4 күн бұрын

  Wow, what an explanation. Hats off sir

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  @vikassamarth4 күн бұрын

  Fed should think of cutting rates twice,

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  @IndraanilGuha4 күн бұрын

  To be honest, I am NOT trying to second guess how many rate cuts we will get this year! I think it is pointless trying to speculate on these things... instead I am trying to focus on identifying indicators / parameters that can reliably help us prepare for the onset of a recession / market crash before one actually kicks in, and the start of rate cuts, whenever that happens, will surely be an important development in this regard!

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  @user-wq1rk6fk6r5 күн бұрын

  8 crores indian investorse are active in purchase/ sale of equity shares in indian stock market.

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  @lakshyajindal10345 күн бұрын

  What if fed don’t cut interest rates for another couple of months? Or maybe in 2024 itself due to higher than 2% inflation which is their target.

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  @IndraanilGuha4 күн бұрын

  To be honest, I am NOT trying to second guess how many rate cuts we will get this year! I think it is pointless trying to speculate on these things... instead I am trying to focus on identifying indicators / parameters that can reliably help us prepare for the onset of a recession / market crash before one actually kicks in, and the start of rate cuts, whenever that happens, will surely be an important development in this regard!

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  @seanvieira62315 күн бұрын

  looks like some of your well wishers, arent really well wishers...

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  @papiyapaul79825 күн бұрын

  I love your analysis sir

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Many thanks Glad you liked my content

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  @SamirDas-qf2us5 күн бұрын

  Don't think for uncalled for criticism.your analysis of the situation with respect to past happening is very convincing.Please continue with your article

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Many thanks for those very kind words! Glad you liked my content

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  @shreesh80595 күн бұрын

  👍👌

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Thanks

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  @ARISEHOMES5 күн бұрын

  Nifty touched 24k today. ❤

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  @sushmaprasad29185 күн бұрын

  Also monthly nifty rsi overbrought now

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  @sushmaprasad29185 күн бұрын

  Thankyou so much sir for giving the insight

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Many thanks! Glad you liked my content

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  @shreyassharma31945 күн бұрын

  Thank You Sir,I'll be subscribing today......we've all seen retail participation and valuations shoot up to euphoric levels and old investors are certainly wary as we realise the economics behind this just doesn't add up.....certainly in the US(a much mature market) we find people atleast discussing inflation and the Dollar Crisis and the mathematics behind increased Gold and Commodity Purchases,that too in physical delivery form not just for maintaining the books..........and here we are in India where people just believe that Stock Markets are bound to go up.......well they surely do in the long run but when today I deal with people,the maximum time they'll hold is 2 years.......such investors must be cautioned against the upcoming crunch and when somebody tries to warn them.....they'll shrug their shoulders calling us the pessimists......well in another business cycle I guess we'll realise the markers and then the pessimists will become genius prophets who foretold the upcoming deep cuts.......but as for us.....what is the benefit to judge early when simply people won't listen 🤦🏽

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Many thanks! Glad you liked my content

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  @SK-wp8ms6 күн бұрын

  Indians,, enjoy this free vedio which is not supposed to be given at free of cost. Brilliant and crisp analysis. Channel needs minimum a million subscribers.

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Many thanks for such extraordinarily kind words! Glad you liked my content

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  @tamalchaudhuri6 күн бұрын

  Recently I was watching a podcast. Link below, kzread.info/dash/bejne/ipOGmruPZNueoqw.htmlsi=Zwlt2pA4fjxOSMlL In this economist Ed Yerdini was quite confident of the US economy. At one point he was saying that credit card delinquency does not necessarily invoke recession and he is not bothered about the delinquency until the job data is strong. Now, I know there are different school of thoughts. Having said that, can you please put some light on his bullish opinion?

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Ed has been a very eminent and long time bull! For now, I am in the same camp as him at least in terms of my market outlook (though not in terms of my outlook of the US economy). I agree and I have stressed this many many times that I expect the market rally to accelerate, especially once the Fed starts cutting rates. But I disagree with Ed that the economy continues to be in a sweet spot. Job data is indeed strong for now... but job data is always the last to roll over, and it will, in my view, once the ongoing slowdown in the US economy gains further momentum... in fact, it would be contradictory to believe that the Fed would be cutting rates, and yet the economy is doing just fine! Let's see how this plays out.... I can always be wrong! And we will know for sure if I am in the next 6-12 months!

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  @tamalchaudhuri4 күн бұрын

  Many thanks for your lucid response

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  @kishorerao79746 күн бұрын

  Mr Indranil. Please do not feel disenchanted. You are brilliantly lucid, razor sharp in your analysis and very consistent in your message. It's truly a treat to listen and learn from your videos. Yes, you've always maintained what you've reiterated in this video. There's absolutely no inconsistency anywhere. So, very good going...

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Many thanks Mr Rao for such extraordinarily kind words! Glad you liked my content

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  @utsavchester59636 күн бұрын

  Hi Indranil, thank you for the video. I've been eagerly awaiting your new content, and I find it extremely informative rather than demotivating. I have a quick question: given our bullish outlook on the Indian market, supported by the Nifty50 rally and Sensex growth, why do you think the Nifty Midcap 100 is experiencing a brief decline? Many Thanks looking forward for your timely updates on the three main factors you highlighted in the previous videos.

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Many thanks Utsav for those extraordinarily kind words! Glad you liked my content I have NOT a sectoral expert, or the best person to check about which segment of the market (in terms of marketcap) has the best value / upside potential at the moment... having said that, my best guess is that what is happening to midcaps/smallcaps in general is probably part of a long-awaited rotation in favor large-caps after the mid-boggling run up we hahve seen in mid and smallcaps since the onset of the pandemic. Having said that, I don't foresee any largescale reversal in midcaps just yet... my thesis continues to be that this rally will accelarate further once the Fed starts cutting rates, and once that happens, I beleieve midcaps will rally harder than lagecaps in the last phase of the melt-up!

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  @utsavchester59635 күн бұрын

  @@IndraanilGuha Many thanks for your time and reply. It's quite reassuring, fingers crossed!😎

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  @Rukshan-qr5oh6 күн бұрын

  Just a thought and would appreciate your comments: If together with a cut in FFR, the Fed also does another QE, do you still think that a crash is imminent?

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Of course not... there cannot be any crash if the Fed is conducting QE! But that won't happen... rate cuts typically start once the economy starts to show signs of a slowdown, but before the onset of a recession... QE typically starts post the onset of the recession, once it becomes clear to Fed that rate cuts are NOT enough to address the recession

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  @MathJee16 күн бұрын

  yeah till now after your video NIFTY has given 12%

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  So? Have you even seen the video? Or are you just leaving behind this comment based on your assumptions about the content based on merely what you see in the thumbnail?

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  @ricky1234476866 күн бұрын

  U do Very good analysis & dont need to bother about trolling bcoz ppl troll the PM, all the celebrities and every famous person 😃

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Many thanks for those extraordinarily kind words! Glad you liked my content

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  @sushmaprasad29186 күн бұрын

  Thankyou sir for a highly knowledgeable vedio 🙏

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  @IndraanilGuha6 күн бұрын

  Many Thanks... Glad you liked the video

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  @dgogate076 күн бұрын

  Looks like RRP again started rising.

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  @IndraanilGuha5 күн бұрын

  Yes indeed! it's linked to how much fresh bonds the US government issues... US government issued bond feverishly all the way till the first quarter of 2024, and all that was getting funded by outflows from RRP... since then, fresh bond issuance has slowed significantly, and therefore drawdown from the RRP has also stopped for now! But it's a temporary pause in my view!

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  @IB5686 күн бұрын

  Till your subscribers dont point finger at your bias, they are precious subscriber. The moment your inherent bias is called out, the same subscriber becomes a troll. Clearly, you carry wrong attitude. Knowledge is of no use, without right attitude. Unsubscribing you.