The Liquidity Tap Fuelling The On-Going Rally In Stocks Is Now 75% Empty! Indian Stock Market Rally

HOW LONG WILL THIS ON-GOING RALLY LAST? [ENGLISH Version]
There has been a dramatic improvement in market liquidity, especially since June 2023, which in turn has helped drive one of the strongest rallies of recent times in equity markets around the world. The NIFTY-50 in India rallied almost 20% during the course of 2023, and this raging bull run in equity markets is showing no signs of slowing down in 2024 either.
However the source of liquidity that’s driving this on-going rally is not the same this time as what they traditionally have been. Equity markets have historically witnessed liquidity-driven bull runs typically during times when global central banks, especially the Fed, are in “money-printing” mode. However that’s NOT the case right now... Fed has in fact been conducting Quantitative Tightening (QT) and cutting liquidity since June 2022! Then where are equity markets deriving liquidity from right now?
This is exactly what I discuss in this video. It’s critical to understand the source of liquidity that’s fueling the on-going rally, because only then can we make an objective assessment as to how long this new source of liquidity will last, and by when the on-going rally can potentially run out of steam!
If you wish to watch this video in Hindi, click on the link below:
• 75% Liquidity Pool Exh...
Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
00:13 Ongoing Rally from 2023 to 2024
01:53 Fed Balance Sheet - Liquidity and Nifty 50
10:25 What is US Debt Ceiling?
19:05 What is Repo Market Blowup?
35:17 Fed's Reverse Repo Facility- Interest Rate and Balance in RRP
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Liquidity Tap & Indian Stock Market Rally 2023 to 2024
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Пікірлер: 58

  • @sahilkaundal6770
    @sahilkaundal67704 ай бұрын

    Wait for first rate cut announcement, I will visit this video again. Saving it. :)

  • @Ravi-Singh-001
    @Ravi-Singh-0012 ай бұрын

    I was missing one piece of the puzzle when market started ralling in 2023 despite looking at fed balance sheet and TGA. It was the mechanism of RRP that fueling the rally. It started to make sense now. Thank you Paaji 🙏

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    2 ай бұрын

    Many thanks... glad you found the video useful

  • @ankiindi2886
    @ankiindi28864 ай бұрын

    Invaluable video!! Thanks for sharing.

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    4 ай бұрын

    Glad you liked the content

  • @Bp.singh132
    @Bp.singh1322 ай бұрын

    Very valuable contents 🙏

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    2 ай бұрын

    Many many thanks for the kind words... really glad you liked the video

  • @GabbbarSingh-
    @GabbbarSingh-4 ай бұрын

    cleared many of my doubts.... thank u sir...

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    4 ай бұрын

    Glad you liked the content

  • @angrybruce4770
    @angrybruce47704 ай бұрын

    wonderful insights.

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    4 ай бұрын

    Glad you liked the content

  • @mentor3447
    @mentor34473 ай бұрын

    Wonderful content, cleared lot of doubts. Pl keep it up

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    3 ай бұрын

    Many thanks... glad you liked the content

  • @RamKumar-xm8by
    @RamKumar-xm8by4 ай бұрын

    Well explained. Learned a lot which i thought never able to understand.

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    4 ай бұрын

    Glad you liked the content

  • @finasks
    @finasks23 күн бұрын

    Sooper content… Now three months almost completed, RRP outflow stopped?

  • @shwetakoshija565
    @shwetakoshija5653 ай бұрын

    Absolutely loved the video!

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    3 ай бұрын

    Many thanks... glad you liked the content

  • @sivasubramanianmanickam2646
    @sivasubramanianmanickam26462 ай бұрын

    Thanks a lot.. I am not a finance professional..But .so glad that I understood all the concepts you explained clearly 🎉

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    Ай бұрын

    Many many thanks...glad you liked the video

  • @rahul27668
    @rahul276684 ай бұрын

    Very well explained!

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    4 ай бұрын

    Glad you liked the content

  • @vishalnangare31
    @vishalnangare312 ай бұрын

    Thank you sir for sharing this invaluable knowledge 🙏🙏.

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    Ай бұрын

    Many many thanks ... glad you liked the video

  • @arvind88
    @arvind884 ай бұрын

    Thank you sir for sharing valuable content! Please do more such interesting content

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    4 ай бұрын

    You're welcome! Stay tuned for more valuable and interesting content.

  • @sugreev1986
    @sugreev19863 ай бұрын

    Thank you for such a nice Video.

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    3 ай бұрын

    Many Thanks... Glad you liked the content

  • @mattyzacharia
    @mattyzacharia3 ай бұрын

    Amazing wisdom

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    3 ай бұрын

    Many thanks... glad you liked the content

  • @manojsaxena4164
    @manojsaxena41643 ай бұрын

    Nicely explained informative video

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    3 ай бұрын

    Many thanks... glad you liked the content

  • @sayansaha821
    @sayansaha8214 ай бұрын

    Keep creating such informative videos Dada !!!🎉🎉❤❤

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    4 ай бұрын

    Glad you liked the content

  • @chetankandpal1550
    @chetankandpal15504 ай бұрын

    Subscribed

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    4 ай бұрын

    Thank You

  • @amitkhawas
    @amitkhawas2 ай бұрын

    Loved it

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    2 ай бұрын

    Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

  • @RiddhimanArya
    @RiddhimanArya3 ай бұрын

    Amazing ! But Complicated and Long. Can you make one short summary of this video plz ?

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    3 ай бұрын

    Please, consider going through this video, where I have also included a 2-minute summary right at the beginning: kzread.info/dash/bejne/Zpylrc9wma_JdNY.html

  • @sagarmitkari1514
    @sagarmitkari15144 ай бұрын

    brilliant video! thanks! a question. you said Money is overflowing from RRP to bond market then how equity market are getting liquidity? thanks in advance

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    3 ай бұрын

    Many thanks... glad you liked the content! We have featured this question and my response to the same in a dedicated Q&A video that we just finished recording as a follow-up to this video. The Q&A video is now available at: kzread.info/dash/bejne/q5Vhxpqkg6ngdKg.html Many thanks once again for this really incisive question!

  • @srpai6647
    @srpai66474 ай бұрын

    Brilliant video and my time Well spent on this. Well, net Fii flows have been negative over the last 12 months+ so the inflows had anyway dried up. Secondly, it will be interesting to see how the composition of fii, dii, promoters and retail has changed in the last 1 year. Let me check that. Finally, the last few min of ur vid indicates an upcoming pivotal change so thanks for raising caution as it really helps retailers. ❤

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    4 ай бұрын

    Glad you liked the content

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    3 ай бұрын

    Mr. Pai, many thanks... glad you liked to video, and many thanks for sharing your observations... I have provided a limited take from my side on the issue of inflows from FIIs v/s DIIs in a dedicated Q&A video that we just finished recording as a follow-up to this video. The Q&A video is now available at: kzread.info/dash/bejne/q5Vhxpqkg6ngdKg.html Many thanks once again for your really incisive observations and feedback!

  • @aaaddyant
    @aaaddyantАй бұрын

    Make a video about metacaps thought process objective, working & performance compare to existing smallcases/benchmarks reffering to market conditions. I visited website but not getting clear idea

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    Ай бұрын

    I refrain from talking too much about what we do at metacaps.ai because I don't want to come across as trying to sell anything on my channel, but since you asked, at metacaps.ai, we offer a bunch of proprietary investment strategies to our paying customers, which involve continuously moving the portfolio between equity and debt funds, based on our market outlook. We tend to have a high equity exposure in our client portfolios when liquidity conditions are easy and reduce equity exposure in our client portfolios as and when liquidity conditions start to tighten. This approach has helped us reliably sidestep large equity market corrections in the past! However, when such rebalancing is carried out at frequent intervals using mutual funds and/or ETFs and/or direct stocks, the resulting gains attract taxation basis the rates applicable for “short term capital gains”, which are significantly higher than the tax rates applicable in case of “long term capital gains”. Hence we do NOT use mutual funds and/or ETFs and/or direct stocks for executing our investment strategies. Instead we use a new breed of very low-cost ULIPs called “Zero-Allocation Charge ULIPs”, which have an expense ratio that is lower than that of mutual funds for executing our proprietary investment strategies. If you are interested to know more about these strategies and about the low-cost ULIPs we use for executing the strategies then you can email / WhatsApp us on the email address / WhatsApp number provided in the description of the video.

  • @deveshmaheshwari6598
    @deveshmaheshwari65982 ай бұрын

    Hi Mr Guha 2 questions - 1) This vdo explains why FIIs have been net sellers for last few months . Indian mkts have been riding on local participation. Now even if RRP depletes how will that result in markets going down . 2) What could be the impact of int reducton by FED sometime in July or is this already discounted by markets. Thx

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    2 ай бұрын

    1) Great point... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 19,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. But we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is a growing feeling, I believe amongst analysts in India that the scale of domestic flows are now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus. I do agree that thanks to our strong domestic flows, selling by FIIs will NOT cause the sort of drawdowns in Indian markets anymore that we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling just about 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said, I don't think our domestic flows are so material that Indian markets would be insulated from the adverse impacts as and when, let's say the US economy goes into a recession and there is a large correction US markets as a result of that. I have delved into this to some extent in an earlier Q&A video, which is available at: kzread.info/dash/bejne/q5Vhxpqkg6ngdKg.html (watch from 08:11) I will try to record and post a dedicated video on this topic in the near future explaining the nuances in greater details 2) I have already recorded and shared a dedicated video on the possible impact on markets as and when Fed starts to cut rates. The same is available at: kzread.info/dash/bejne/mJaFwZakkbbLfdI.html

  • @mumbaihero6856
    @mumbaihero68563 ай бұрын

    Very informative video. Currently at 4% up yield of US 10 y Bonds, why liquidity is not shifting from equity to debt ?

  • @pepsi744

    @pepsi744

    2 ай бұрын

    Not attractive enough

  • @kshitijgupta6976
    @kshitijgupta69764 ай бұрын

    Indian stock market also has inflows from DII (mutual fund house, retail investor). Whats your view on them? can they keep the rally going

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    3 ай бұрын

    Mr. Gupta, many thanks for asking this question... we have featured this question and my response to the same in a dedicated Q&A video that we just finished recording as a follow-up to this video. The Q&A video is now available at: kzread.info/dash/bejne/q5Vhxpqkg6ngdKg.html Many thanks once again for this really incisive question!

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    3 ай бұрын

    @IndraanilGuha 4 minutes ago Mr. Gupta, many thanks for asking this question... we have featured this question and my response to the same in a dedicated Q&A video that we just finished recording as a follow-up to this video. The Q&A video is now available at: kzread.info/dash/bejne/q5Vhxpqkg6ngdKg.html Many thanks once again for this really incisive question!

  • @siddharthbahl4286
    @siddharthbahl42864 ай бұрын

    Do you think ending of BTFP on 11th march will end the rally ?

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    3 ай бұрын

    Mr. Bahl, many thanks for asking this question... we have featured this question and my response to the same in a dedicated Q&A video that we just finished recording as a follow-up to this video. The Q&A video is now available at: kzread.info/dash/bejne/q5Vhxpqkg6ngdKg.html Many thanks once again for this really incisive question!

  • @geedee7675
    @geedee767512 күн бұрын

    Sir .. if the liquidity is staying in the markets in some form or the other then whats causing the US infkation to come down .. aftet all the money supply got cut from one side and then enhanced from another

  • @IndraanilGuha

    @IndraanilGuha

    8 күн бұрын

    Two reasons: 1. Aggregate demand is slowing down rapidly... one important reason for that is all the stimulus money that US government put into the accounts of those who were adversely impacted by COVID as a relief measure has now been spent 2. Supply side constraints (especially supplies from China) have almost entirely normalised

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