In this video, I explain how the emerging liquidity condition in 2024 is eerily similar to the emergence of severely tight liquidity conditions in the US financial system back in 2019. I also endeavor to explain in this video how the RRP facility has so far provided liquidity support to the US financial system and prevented 2019-like tight liquidity conditions from materializing. But the balance in the RRP is now down to less than 20% of its original balance, and once the RRP is fully exhausted, there is a very real risk that we could see severely tight liquidity conditions actually materializing in the US financial system, and that can only mean a heightened risk of a sell-off in equity markets.

@sureshsaboo7310

2 ай бұрын

Don't you think there is too much emphasis on FII inflows. As per my understanding FII have been selling for most part of the last Financial year. Domestic Institutions & Retailers have done bulk of the buying.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Great point Sir... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 19,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. But we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is a growing feeling, I believe amongst analysts in India that the scale of domestic flows are now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus. I do agree that thanks to our strong domestic flows, selling by FIIs will NOT cause the sort of drawdowns in Indian markets anymore that we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling just about 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said, I don't think our domestic flows are so material that Indian markets would be insulated from the adverse impacts as and when, let's say the US economy goes into a recession and there is a large correction US markets as a result of that. I have delved into this to some extent in an earlier Q&A video, which is available at: kzread.info/dash/bejne/q5Vhxpqkg6ngdKg.html (watch from 08:11) I will try to record and post a dedicated video on this topic in the near future explaining the nuances in greater details

@Pratim51

2 ай бұрын

​@@sureshsaboo7310great point sir

@gauriblomeyer1835

2 ай бұрын

The economy of a country is difficult to analyze because one has to know the situation how the country developed in the past 50 years and how the country’s firms are situated in comparison to competitors in other countries. That is a task which invites prophecy.

@bhushymistry

2 ай бұрын

Though liquidity will get tightened in USA, won't decreasing interest rates help in bringing in more liquidity into system and balance the tightening?

I rarely take the time to leave comments on KZread videos, but your meticulous analysis of the liquidity situation has compelled me to express my gratitude. Your thorough examination of the topic, combined with the clarity and depth of your insights, truly sets your content apart. It’s evident that you’ve invested significant effort in researching and presenting this valuable information. Thank you for sharing your expertise. Looking forward to more insightful content from you

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled! Glad you like the video

I've learned so much today...my entire 20 years of education feels nothing infront of this vidoe.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled! Very happy to know that you liked the video

@rage4465

2 ай бұрын

So what to do exactly. Book complete profit and wait for fresh entry or book partial profits?

I have no words to express my thanks to you for taking the time out to explain such complex subject in a very simple and concise manner. I've never come across any youtube video from FA's explaining the implication of US Fed decisions on our markets. Looking forward to you next video 🙏

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!

I have shared this lecture (yes i would call this a lecture and not just a youtube video)… in all my investment discord groups…. One of the best i have ever heard on this subject… thank you sir 🙏

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Gaurav, many thanks for the kind words and for sharing the video with your friends and family... really glad you found the content to be useful

I have been in the market for a long time and first time I heard such clarity on a complex topic. Great work and thanks.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many many thanks...glad you liked the video

Great help for retail investors like me. GOD bless!!!!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

Every thing is clear with examples on the charts. Thanx for the dideo.

Thank you is such a small word for the kind of quality of content you provided. Hats off to you for educating the laymen in a fairly easy manner.

@IndraanilGuha

8 күн бұрын

Many Thanks... Glad you liked the content

While I knew all of these individually, you connected the dots. Thanks!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video

Amazing video sir .. thankyou so much for sharing such in-depth knowledge

kudos to the YT algo for recommending this video ..Dear @Indraanil many congratulations to you for making this awesome content and breaking down QE , QT is such a simple language .. now will watch all other videos posted by you ..cant wait for another one ..thx

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your support... glad you liked the video

You have hit the nail on the Head....Kudos!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks for the super kind words... glad you liked the video

Have never heard such a nice talk which could be understood by a layman like me

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful!

You are a god send sir ji . Though we were fed info on QE, QT etc., we were never told in such clarity about liquidity , repo rate , debt ceiling, fed balance sheet in one canvas . 💐🙏

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

I usually look for buffet indicator, but this is much better and adding more value in context to nifty

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for the kind words.... truly humbled!

Gratitude becomes of you. The content on yield curve inversion was a big informative experience to me. I thought I was aware of yield curve . But the clarity opened my eyes to my deficit in the all important morsel of knowledge. Your painstaking approach and the charts were commendable. I was already informed of yield curve inversion in US and the lead lag effect . Yet I was unaware completely about the duration and extent of yield curve inversion. It was truly scary . That , sir , is a tribute to your sterling efforts

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled! Very happy to know that you liked the video

A good analysis indeed! But best of the experts worldwide could never predict market crashes and hence this time also if it happens so is not going to be an exception. Thus, no body should either predict a crash or a boom irrespective of data and statistics as these data are only indicative in nature but not decisive. In the history of Independent India, India has witnessed 6 market cashes, 1982, 1992 (12.77%), 2008 (15%), 2015 (5.9%), 2016 (6%), 2020 (13.5%) but nobody could predict any of the crashes. This time yes Inflation is a major factor worldwide but the story in India is positively biased, the commodity cycle has started moving up benefitting commodity stocks, India's forex reserves standing at $6,42,631 million a record high, a robust growth rate outlook of 7.6 to 7.8% escalating to $3.6 trillion dollar and becoming fifth largest economy from 8th position, a robust capex push of government spending to 11 lakh crores, RBI’s smart management economics over inflation, rising consumption patterns, major push to defence production in India and rising GST collections (Rs.1.78 lakh crore in April, 2024), surplus liquidity condition in banking system and record inflow into mutual funds industry (AUM has grown from ₹ 23.80 trillion as on March 31, 2019 to ₹53.40 trillion as on March 31, 2024, more than 2 fold increase in a span of 5 years), ever highest exports of $776.3 billion in 2022-23, average agricultural growth of 4.6% in past 5 years and efficient government management over agriculture, are some of the factors which shall fuel the markets in India. Although short term corrections cannot be ruled out but those corrections shall not change the trend in the near term and thus every correction shall prove to be a buying opportunity rather than market crash.

@rsubhasify

2 ай бұрын

India will correct anyway after elections irrespective of which party comes to power...it is going to correct deeply if Congress comes to power since it is going to be a change in power

@chddhn7410

2 ай бұрын

Only HOW is being explained. But WHEN is/was nobody's guess.

@user-bn1bc1fs5n

2 ай бұрын

@@rsubhasify congress will not come to the power

@jesusite69

Ай бұрын

​@@rsubhasify Congress will not come to power in the first place, if they come it won't be correction but an death of indian Market. 😂

@priyesh350

Ай бұрын

​@@user-bn1bc1fs5nstill market will correct after election...

Thanks a lot, good content.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge. Appreciated!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks... really glad you liked the video

Brilliant! Too good for a free content. Feeling privileged to subscribe to your channel.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful

amazing video very helpful, thank you sir.

Excellentt presentation! Have to keep watching your videos!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

Don’t sell any thing just hold. They try to trick you to sell all ur holding so that big fish could buy them for short time profit.

@aryanaryan9282

Ай бұрын

No matter what you say, they'll sell anyway😂

@gautamghosh1615

Ай бұрын

Portfolio crashed I am selling

@Aceinvesto

Ай бұрын

Ase hi bol bol ke Retailers ko Faste hain ... don't sell don't sell. . are bhai Jiska Target achieved ho gaya hai .. market se bahar niklo

@akkinana

Ай бұрын

​@@gautamghosh1615 hope you did not sell

@priyesh350

Ай бұрын

​@@gautamghosh1615ok dada

Was familiar with the various terms, but the clarity with which you have put them together to explain the situation we are in - is commendable. Kudos to your great effort.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

Actual video starts after 5:45. Nearly 6 minutes of fluff almost made me leave, respecting the comments before mine that are singing praises of this video and knowledge. Willing to give it a chance.

@Jaihokarma

2 ай бұрын

Starting mein Bohot e gas dete hain 😅😅😅

Excellent class, no words to describe. Even a MBA student will get benefitted. Thanks

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!

Thanks for the sincere efforts, clear, simple, crisp,logical

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks.... glad you liked the video

One of the most eye opening session I have seen. Pls educate us as yu are very good sir

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video And thanks more so for subscribing to my channel

You are amazingly articulate..thank you

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video

I just came across your channel today. I listened the content and subscribed the channel. I would say that the insights you share are exceptionally great and is uncommon and not available in other channels. This is “USP” of the channel i believe.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks.... glad you liked the video And thanks more so for subscribing to the channel

One of the truly educational KZread channels I have came across. The simplicity in your explanation is quite amazing. Keep up the good work sir for retail investors.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... really glad you liked the video...

Excellent explanation. It also answers the questions I had in the previous video. Ty

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks once again for taking the time to show your appreciation once again... really glad you liked the video

Such an underrated gem of a channel

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video

Very deep and amazing content for Investors ! ❤

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... very happy that you liked the video

Very informative video sir. THANKS.MUCH APPRECIATED

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful

Very educative. Very simply explained. Very useful. Thanks!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks for these kind words Sir... glad you liked the video My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content

Thank you Indraanil

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Welcome..... Hope you liked the video

Thank you!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... hope you liked the video

Thank you ❤

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video

Fantastic! Very indepth, deep dive into the looming liquidity crisis. Insights were Very impressive. Thanks.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for these kind words... glad you liked the video

excellent demonstration!! tremendous knowledge truely. i am honest admirer of you.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... glad you liked the video

This is an excellent educational video on financial systems for us non-finance background folks. Worth saving in playlist for future reference as well. Subscribed!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... glad you found the content useful

Many thanks to you sir for explaining such complex topics in such an easy manner.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!

Thanks you have described very very deeply Very useful for taking investment decisions

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many many thanks.... glad you liked the video

Absolutely fantastic

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... really glad you liked the video

Amazing explanation of the market workings. I am sure a lot of work has gone into making this video. Thank you!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks... glad you liked the video

Thank you sir for the video. It was very informative. Instead wasting my time watching useless videos, I have learned something important.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks.... glad you liked the video

Another XLNT video with clear and useful information. Thank you, Mr, Guha. Many greetings from Denmark

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... very happy to know that you found the content to be useful

Your painstaking efforts are highly appreciated Complex topics presented with such detailed analysis and explained in simple ways My key takeaway is the learning, nevermind the stock market returns.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content

Invaluable discussion.,,, lovely….thanks!

@IndraanilGuha

28 күн бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video

@chanakyachinna4317

23 күн бұрын

@@IndraanilGuha absolutely

Indranil Sir you are brilliant, in all your videos you have served the most complex concepts in the ever most simplest way with strong basics. Fortunate to find & connect you in You Tube!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

Excellent content and it's eye opening... No words for your valuable content. Thank you and pls keep us searching for your contents.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

SUPERB! Thanks, Sir.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad that you liked the video

@whealth.bharat

Ай бұрын

@@IndraanilGuha Please do keep enlightening us. No one else in the public domain really shares the kind of evidence and analysis that you do. Thanks again, regards, owais.

Great analysis, information and really worth the time, thanks for sharing such indepth analysis, as of now no one sharing such high quality stuff and it really needs high level of economic background to understand.... No ordinary person can understand that! Blessed to have this higher order knowledge

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video And thanks again for subscribing to the channel

Excellent explanation.. Thank you . Eagerly waiting for next video...

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks... really glad you liked the video

Superb presentation.Thank you

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many many thanks...glad you liked the video

Very nice, elaborate but simple explanation of the situation. Thank You for all your efforts 🙏

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many Thanks.... Glad you liked the video

Learned a lot today. Thank you so much

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content

You are an amazing teacher .. I have subscribed !

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video Thanks more so for subscribing to my channel

Good explanations in video…learnt a lot…thanks for putting it together!!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

Super

thanks for best knowledge sir .....

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... really glad you liked the video

Thanks for understanding complex things with simple examples😊

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks... glad you liked the video

As Always, Great Content !! Thank you :

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks once again for taking time to show your appreciation once again... really glad you liked the video

That's very deep sir.. thanx for the valuable info...

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video

Thank you sir for an honest effort..

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Thanks and welcome

In nutshell, a great comprehensive analysis and teaching

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... very happy that you liked the video

Crazy crazy video. Epitome of the KISS strategy - keep it short and simple! Such clarity over complex issue of liquidity in the markets. Amazing. Loved it. Subscribed.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for these kind words... glad you liked the video And yes, my key motivation behind creating these videos is to explain the underlying concepts without making them sound like rocket science

I am unable to adequately express my appreciation for the exceptional manner in which you elucidated the subject matter. Although I have not yet joined any channels, my intuition strongly suggests that I should do so in your case. Your profound knowledge is truly awe-inspiring.

@shahfareed

6 күн бұрын

I am pleased to have discovered your channel when it had only 20,000 subscribers. Within a few years, this channel has the potential to reach millions of subscribers, and I would be honored to have joined at an early stage.

@IndraanilGuha

6 күн бұрын

Many thanks @shahfareed for these extraordinarily kind words Glad you liked my content

This channel would soon be one of the credible and popular one. Wish you all the best for making quality content.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

Seems like I’ve found the Mozart of finance and economics. It was music to the ears! What an explanation

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many many thanks... glad you liked the video

Excellent

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... really glad you liked the video

Master piece ... great explanation... Lot of love and support

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for love and support.... glad you liked the video

Exceptionally well demonstrated lecture with in depth analysis and artifacts... THANKS! a lot for presenting such valuable learning videos on free platform like youtube.

@IndraanilGuha

25 күн бұрын

Many thanks for these beautiful and kind words… very happy that you found the content useful! Many thanks once again for taking time to leave behind this super strong note of support and appreciation! Greatly appreciated!

Hi. I am a new listener from Hong Kong. Thank you for making your videos in English. Pertinent information.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for love and support.... glad you liked the video

Brilliant explanation on monetary policy, liquidity management and Fiscal policy in the USA. I hold a CFA charter and much appreciate the thoroughness of the analysis!

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks for those super kind words Sir... Coming from someone with your kind of background makes it that much more special! Glad you liked the content

I have never seen any youtuber explain with so much clarity the most complex topics like quantitative tightening/easing, liquidity crunch and impact of fed decision on financial markets. You have such good grip on such complex topics! Its simply amazing. Where were you so many days sir?😂

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks for the super kind words... glad you liked the video My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content And thanks more so for subscribing to my channel

@narendranath2647

2 ай бұрын

Superbly presented Sir, Highly appreciated your efforts. Very informative 😊

@narendranath2647

2 ай бұрын

Am a veterinary doctor and really I learned something new in this video 🙏😊

Thank you for your extremely valuable content . Now I have been able to understand the complex financial market with clarity . Excellent presentation . Please keep up. !

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!

Thanks

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Hi, many thanks for this expression of support... Really appreciate the spirit behind the contribution, but to be honest, this was not needed. I'll be just as grateful for your love and support, even if not accompanied by a monetary contribution! But I am truly touched and humbled by this kind of show of support and appreciation!

Brilliantly presented and summarised. 👏👏👏 Eagerly looking forward to your next episode. I expected the crash in 2019. Lost out on the rally exactly like how you explained. For once here's someone whose analytical skills makes a lot of sense. This research must have taken a tremendous amount of effort for which you need to be applauded. Thank you for sharing with us lay people.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for these super kind words... glad you liked the video

Amazing vide sir. You have superb knowledge 👍 I have rarely seen such deep analysis of these subjects on KZread

@IndraanilGuha

10 күн бұрын

Many thanks.... Glad you liked the content

Sir , excellent video.. this video is enough to learn US finance system and its impact in equity markets

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... glad you liked the video

Very very valuable information. Thanks.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video

FED was printing all along when markets went up by 28% YTD and inflation was high too, and they will print more if needed, In US, debt ceiling is something that is meant to be raised until Armageddon comes and this is not that time…but the 3 pointers you mentioned are spot on.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video

soo grateful to youtube algorithm that I found this gem.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... very happy that you liked the video

Brilliant

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video

What a fantastic class sir. EVen a non-finance person like me could understand it pretty clearly. Hats off to you. I just completed Stress Test book by Timothy Giethner on the 2008 collpase. This video helped me explain many things I couldn't understand in the book.You have an amazing gift of teaching.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

You are most welcome

You and your efforts are just excellent. ..deeply educative carry on..❤❤

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

Excellent explanation of complicated economics I was hungry about

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... really glad you liked the video

Sir great educational video

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!

Thanks sir for a very informative video backed by factual data.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks.... glad you liked the video

commendable effort sir.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video

Awesome❤

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... very happy that you liked the video

Guha sir fabulous wisdom you shared today i have watched your three videos regarding corelation between liquidity , market growth , fef fund rate and inflation corelation ....fabulous content sir best wishes for u sir

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

What an absolutely fantastic education. Hats off to the time and effort you put in and the patience with which you explain. I have subscribed and am really looking forward to your future videos.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for such generous praise.... truly humbled! Glad you liked the video

Thank god for today I happened to watch this channel. Sir no words the knowledge of economics you're giving and the edge of your analysis are amazig.All the very best to you and I am pretty sure this channel going to be darling of Indian investors. Subscribed.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

Thanks ! Great video !

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful

Amazing insights Sir ! Thank you for enlightening us with your expertise. Looking forward to such content.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks... glad you liked the video

Thanks for being so honest in the first half of the video !Loved it dada !! You have my like and subscription.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Raj, many thanks for the kind words... really glad you found the content to be useful