Very well explained !! Thank you so much for your content

Thank so very much for sharing your knowledge with us

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video

Excellent presentation. Thank you !

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Glad you enjoyed it!

no doubt great content thanks for clarification

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video

Very apt and logical view

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the content

Great content and very well explained!

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

You are fantastic

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... hope you liked the video

We can see you counting months between the Fed starting rate cuts and the market correction. Is it possible to make any judgement base on the fact as to after how many rate cuts the market is said to make it's peaks in Indian scenario.

Absolutely fantastic content

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video

Thank you for explaining Dr. Ankit Shah's predictions.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video

Superb insights sir! Very grateful ❤

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks... glad you liked the video

How do we assume that FFR has peaked at current level of 5.4 %? By this Logic it already peaked in Jan 23 at 2.5% ; but still kept increasing. So in future it may increase even more. If we assume fed-cut formula , it has reversed in Dec-23 onwards: Mar 20, 2024 (Q1) 23:30 4.6% Dec 14, 2023 (Q4) 00:30 5.4% Sep 20, 2023 (Q3) 23:30 5.6% I appreciate you efforts in making us understand it !

Nice presentation and informative.....

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

Very well explained sir👍

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the content

Excellant. Profound thanks.

@IndraanilGuha

2 күн бұрын

Many Thanks... Glad You liked the content

I never missed your videos..keep up the good work ❤

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

Great content!!!! Got to know the market situation and the logic behind it. Thanks Sir...keep making such videos and provide us deep market knowledge

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

good session....thank u

@IndraanilGuhaClips

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the content

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

Sir, I have a question, isn't this time a different situation due to covid pandemic, so the impact of liquidity infused by the fed could cause this rate lowering not so impactful. If you could understood my question , pls respond

Thank you soo much sir

@IndraanilGuha

8 күн бұрын

Many Thanks... Glad you liked the video

you are one of the best analysist i have seen on youtube. Please keep sharing your knowledge and market views. Thanks a lot

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks Navneet ji for such generous appreciation... glad you liked the video

Thanks Indraanil for the wonderful analysis and interpretation. In these times of greed and exuberance, it's indeed is good to see someone talk about the need for fear and caution.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for these super kind words... glad you liked the video

Thanks for very informative video. I was aware about grossly 1 year after rate hike market crash but thanks for new knowledge of starting from fed rate cut. Looks like ur analysis will hold true this cycle also as gold is broke out, indian election results are in june that wil cause rally for few months, probably fed rate cut expecting in june. Thanks for knowledge.

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

Well explained. Really enjoyed the content❤

@IndraanilGuhaClips

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the content

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

Great content, keep going

@IndraanilGuhaClips

3 ай бұрын

Glad you liked the content

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

Informative video

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video

Very good content, pls keep enlightening us sir 😊

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video

You are doing great job... Truly respect ur honest n logical perspective... I m in the same mindset unlike many others thinking it as a bull run..

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... glad you liked the video

Very efucative

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... really glad you liked the video

So nice ❤❤❤

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Glad you liked the content

I truly realised you r talking practicality in this video....Thanks for sharing your cautionary insights.... With Interest at its Peak now & Funding Russia-Ukraine, Red Sea Crisis & an Election in the next 5/6 months.....what could be the outcome & reaction of the Equity Markets ?????

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

Great,time for caution soon may be July ,August

@samarthhanda

Ай бұрын

2-3 months after fed starts cutting rates

how to check FED funds rated started cutting?

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

You can find it here: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

Thanks sir, Please explain what is the relationship between QE and Fed fund rate? in the phase of 2003 to 2005, the Fed fund rate was high but the stock markets were also high even though the supply of money is less

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

QE and Fed Funds Rate (FFR) are complimentary... Till 2008, FFR was the primary tool through which Fed responded during recessions... i.e. during recessions, Fed would cut FFR and as the economy would normalize, the Fed would start to hike FFR. In 2008, the intensity of the recession was so severe that even after the Fed had cut rates down to zero, beyond which further rates cuts were NOT possible, the economy and equity markets continued to slide down. So something over and above FFR cuts were needed and that when the then Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke decided to resort to QE. Since then rates cuts and QE have served as the twin tools of the Fed toolkit for intervention at the time of recessions

Tremendous logic

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video

Cash balance reverse repo market is now near 500 billion. Plenty of access liquidity in the markets and GS states that buy backs begin now until mid June so that will keep market up right? About a sixth of the $934 billion in estimated share repurchases this year are expected get executed in May and June. M2 is still rising so how can anyone state inflation is coming down?

USA 2year/10year yield inversion roughly coincides with FFR peak and a reversal of this inversion marks the high of equity markets. Hence till the 2 year yield is higher than the 10 year yield nobody shall be in a hurry to sell.

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

Agree... Also inversion / uninversion of 2Y/10Y and 3M/10Y usually happen not very far apart from each other

Sir your expert video and views on BMW INDUSTRIES LTD

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Sorry, but I don't analyze individual stocks

Worth it

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks for the kind words... glad you liked the video

I video was well presented and well explained. Just that can't we argue that recessions were mainly due to Housing crisis and Covid? And this time, there are no major warning signs.

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

You don't necessarily need a big bang event such as COVID in 2020 or the housing crisis in 2008 to trigger a recession... every business cycle has to ultimately come to an end, and usually the most common reason is that the Fed hikes interest rates so much that at some point they become completely unviable for a large segment of consumers and businesses... this triggers a spike in delinquencies and bankruptcies, and the ultimately unemployment rises to a level that the economy slips into a recession. Of course, a big bang event like COVID can accelerate the end of the cycle, but it's NOT as if that we won't get recessions if there are no more COVID and housing crisis like big bang events.

Great content. Will like to avail your services , Pl suggest the way forward 🙏

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video! You can ping us on the Whatsapp number mentioned in the description of the video

Sir you would have lakhs if followers after this crash. Please recommend me the books or any other source to understand the market including yours

I am just spellbound - the way you explained the deepest fundamental secret of Economy is simply unparalleled. No word is enough to show my gratitude....... Kudos. One thing I want to know from you - sir when, Fed starts rate cut - still euphoric behaviour of traders goes on and index reaches it's top - is that rally likely to be lead by Financial sectors ( or, beaten down sectors, like Chemicals, financials etc.)?

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you found the video to be useful! With regards to markets being euphoric because of improving chances of Fed starting to cut rates - well, this is a common misconception... market participants invariably assume markets / liquidity conditions will get a boost once Fed starts to cut rates! And indeed, basic common sense dictates that Fed cutting rates would lower the cost of capital and hence should ultimately be simulative for equity markets… in fact, once Fed starts cutting rates, equity markets indeed tend to cheer initially with an acceleration in the rally! However such exuberance is almost always quite short lived, because the real reason the Fed has to start cutting rates is because by then the economy and aggregate demand situation is in such a dismal state that the Fed has no option left but to cut rates to salvage the economy. And yet, history shows us that by the time the Fed realizes how bad things are and starts cutting rates in response, it’s already too late, and the US economy descends into the next recession anyways, despite the rate cuts by the Fed. Will this time be different? Possible, but very unlikely... the emerging data on the demand situation clearly shows that demand destruction, especially amongst lower income families in US is now at fairly advanced stages: www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/starbucks-mcdonalds-yum-earnings-show-consumers-pulling-back.html

@navneetmukherjee9592

Ай бұрын

@@IndraanilGuha I am really really grateful to you Sir ..... means a lot for me to get replies from an expert of your calibre.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Always welcome Navneet Bhalo theko!

@navneetmukherjee9592

Ай бұрын

@@IndraanilGuha ধন্যবাদ স্যার।।

Money is getting printed left right and center. No way there is going to be fall any time soon

Bengali bhai, when will the correction start?

India is growing little correction may happen suppose 5% correction but ll go ATH 20%

Stock market is more correlated to fed's balance sheet .....explain that too....

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Yes very much so... We have done a dedicated video explaining how closely stock market performance is linked to Fed's balance sheet size. You can check it out at: kzread.info/dash/bejne/YqGYqch9dtS5haQ.html

❤ loved the view.

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks... glad you liked the video!

I think his points are quite a-bit flawed ones. He is looking at situations in single viewpoint/perspective whereas markets/recession depends on many many situations at play internationally. Situation in 2008 and now is very very different. Interest rates cuts in 2019 were due to COVID and markets had to shutdown abruptly and temporarily, which ofcourse demands low cost of capital for recovery. If covid had not happened, I think interests rates would have stayed stable around 2% or 2.5% mark for long long time which had made cost of capital fairly moderate as per market needs. I can put many more points but I need to analyse more to put things in simple and easy to understand manner.

Dada, the contents are superb. Can u suggest me some books on these subject for in dept study? Jewel Saha. Kolkata.

@IndraanilGuha

3 ай бұрын

Many thanks Jewel... Glad you like the video! You can consider going through the podcasts and interviews shared on the following KZread channels: 1. www.youtube.com/@BlockworksHQ 2. www.youtube.com/@adam.taggart 3. www.youtube.com/@macrovoices7508 I personally find the content on these channels far more useful to keep myself abreast than books

@stock-market-is-my-passion

3 ай бұрын

@@IndraanilGuha Thank you ❤️. Nifty 24,030 Max as per Elliott wave.

Content and subject is excellent. But presentation is repetitive, which causes diversion of focus. Kindly avoid repeating things if possible.

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Really glad you liked the video, and many thanks for the exhaustive feedback Sir. Sir, I have got this feedback from a few viewers earlier too… I know I have been quite verbose at times, and that these videos can easily be cut down by 10-15 mins if I cut down on repeating the same points so many times… but you know what… this kind of frustration comes more often than not from those who are relatively more finance/economics savvy… for them, it’s like attending a high school class, after having completed their graduation! But if you look at most of those who leave their feedback on my videos by way of comments, you would realize that vast majority of my audience arguably composed of those who probably have never heard of things like Yield Curve, Reverse Repo and/or Fed Funds Rate before. And to be honest, even at the cost of sounding a lil verbose to those who might have some familiarity with the concepts I discuss in my video, my greater priority is that my videos should be relatable and understandable to that last guy in the queue as long as he/she is prepared to put in the effort to go through the entire video, even if he/she has no background in finance… the more finance savvy folks can always go to CNBC and Bloomberg and follow what’s happening with respect to Yield Curve, Reverse Repo and/or Fed Funds Rate. But the vast majority of the rest, who have never heard of these concepts before have nowhere else to go, and I sincerely want to be the go-to learning resource for them. Having said that, I sincerely thank you for the feedback, and believe me, I strive very hard in every video to strike a balance between NOT being too verbose, and yet be relatable to those who may not be savviest in finance and economics

Please do it in hindi, subscribers will be much higher

@IndraanilGuha

2 ай бұрын

It's in the pipeline Sir... I will soon be launching a Hindi channel too, post which most of my videos will be available in Hindi too

🕒🕒

Please take into effect of USA Presidential elections in November 2024 as fed funds rate cut is concerned

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

If you are trying to imply that markets can't correct materially because we are in an election year in US then it may be instructive to note that 2020 and 2008 - the last two times the US economy slipped into severe recessions - were both election years!

But I am operator and have seen your video now will do the opposite 😂

How do you factor in a strong labor market based on 20 million illegal immigrants into the USA as this changes the equation of recession indicators?

@IndraanilGuha

Ай бұрын

Not sure why illegal immigrants would change the dynamics around onset of recession in US... is presence of illegal immigrants in US a new phenomenon? Is it that illegal immigrants did NOT exist before the recessions of 2020 and 2008 and pretty much every recession prior to that?

@tombox2759

Ай бұрын

@@IndraanilGuha Yes there have been many many more with Biden's open border policy and many are working multiple jobs distorting BLM stats. Can you have a recession when employment numbers are strong unlike previous recessions that showed a weak labor market.

U seem to be overconfident that Fed has done hiking See 1970-1980 period . Even if they cut it can again be raised due to Inflation getting out of control

@badhwarankur27

23 күн бұрын

Fed Fund rate may cross more than 10% this time in time to come just wait and watch Pure analysis