If you want to see a bank manager squirm then ask to see the original note .

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

True..

Hi mate, remember I gave u the heads up on GC about 6 months ago. Thanks for following up.

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Indeed, thanks, been following it since... its looking ugly...

As a frequent visitor on the GC I am absolutely astounded at the home prices around Burleigh and Robina topping at around 800K, you cant justify the price tag of these houses compared to Syd or Melb in accordance to jobs and income. I see a bleak future for the GC in the coming year or so now that the hype of the com games has dissolved. side note: The Gold Coast's biggest issue in my eyes is youth unemployment keep up the Good work DFA

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Thanks, yes a bubble.

I expect the gold coast to resemble a ghost town in future as investors realise what they are on the hook for. Values drop but the debt remains the same... welcome to negative equity hell.

@bobbytecer7888

6 жыл бұрын

microteche hello Please elaborate further on your statement as to why you expect the Gold Coast to be a ghost town in the future and about the values dropping Thank you Martin what would be your future prediction for the Gold Coast

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

My suspicion is the high rise prices will drop (and new construction slow). But the debt overhang will last a generation.

@microteche

6 жыл бұрын

Traditionally the coast has been the home of speculation along with varying capital cities however unlike the capital cities the GC relies heavily on tourists to show up and use the beaches and theme parks, the capitals have an underpinning manufacturing and business sector to support them. That might be different this time as China has taken over much more of the production of goods since we had out last true downturn in the early 90s. Based on the number years of our median wage to an average house prices are overcooked and unsustainable. Wage growth is the size of a spec of dust so all you have left is cheap money and the Central Banks have signaled they will be tightening at some stage. But who knows,.... investing is just speculation that paid off.

@damien2198

6 жыл бұрын

She ll be fine, properties are cheap on the GC and if AUD drops nicely, GC will boom.

@beaubeau6498

6 жыл бұрын

Damien you know nothing m8

Was having a chat to a couple of blokes from Sydney about the market there. One told me about his brother going through a divorce, they had their property valued in December at 995k , and as divorces can drag out it was revalued at 795k this month. I asked if he was sure of the numbers as that's about a 20 percent drop. He assured me it was correct. 20 percent in 7 months... My jaw dropped. If this is even half accurate than it's twice as bad as the official reports of a 5 percent drop in about nine months. As the great interest only roller over gathers pace, alot of recent buyers will be sitting on negative equity. Australia's version of the adjustable rate reset in the US. The real kicker is the fact these are full recourse loans. Home owners holding these loans and the economy as a whole are in for a world of pain. My bet is the RBA will be forced to cut, then recapitalise the banks as the loans head south. If 5 percent of CBA's loan book defaults their 45 b capital buffer is zero.

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Yes in places valuations are down significantly.

Very, very astute and useful analyses, Martin, lets hope they'll listen to your wisdom. By the by, folks, all the huge resi towers you see at Surfers have been in the hands of receivers for yonks...... almost like Dubai or Miami or Ireland, Iceland or Spain..... HE HE HE

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Thanks

Australian bank have been selling toxic or junk mortgage back securities for more then a decade since the GFC, foreign investor are nuts to purchase them. If i was them i would be selling now before its to late, history has taught investors a valuable lesson credit agency rate aren't worth much e.g lehman brothers...

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Yes securitiation is a tool often used... but the rules now require the exposure to be included in the capital calculations.

@alexkelton7747

6 жыл бұрын

Walk The World capital calculation = saving accounts?

For some, talking to the bank would be too late, as a result of liar loan and/or interest only.

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

True, but grinding debt is not going away.

Martin, could you do a spill on the difference between currency & wealth, basically what "is" money ??

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Yes our next Martin/John video will be on "What is Money"...

@ianpennack

6 жыл бұрын

Real Money is not paper, or created on a computer. It is physical Gold, Silver and other natural resources. Property is real, but flogged to the limit. It may fall but if you buy the right property it will help to support you during a depression.

@hounddog7256

6 жыл бұрын

@ Ian... how many Australians know about Part IV of the Banking Act 1959 regarding gold...?

If you are handy on excel build a sheet that forcasts all future debits and credits so you roughly know what you're worth on any particular date. You'll be surprised how accurate you can get it. Just annoying it prevents you from impulse buying.

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Good point and there are some apps to do this. We will discuss further.

I'm currently on Sunshine Coast and this place is going mad with development. Illogical real estate developments are continuously approved against the locals resistance. The banks are behind development at any cost, creating debt by the billions.

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Correct, but some of these may not be completed if demand falls...

Martin well researched and accurate. I pay monkeys well for this information, yet never SO accurate! Could you please do a segment on the NEW credit scoring that is now in effect my concern is in regards to so many will not understand how and what the difference is, but most of all how this can really COST many larger % or no credit. I really do feel for our youth for this scoring will effect many.Has anyone ever thought how this will effect them? Why the change and the future of credit? Just also wanted to say Brokers are going gang busters writing over 1.6 Billion last month alone, with many new franchises opening POST ROYAL COMMISSION makes one wonder what loan types? OH there Aussie by the way ,the R.C. fried eggs with some? Trail back in excess of 60BILLION?

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Thanks, appreciated and great suggestions for more studies...

What is your opinion on Credit Default Swaps, and could / should they be viewed as a potential hedge against rising mortgage stress?

@davidlazarus67

6 жыл бұрын

SomethingRedundant The big problem with credit default swaps is will they be honoured? During the Greek write downs the banks who would have had to pay out deemed it not a loss even though they had been written down significantly. So you could buy them and it may just be another banking scam. So it is as much of a gamble as buying a house right now as the fire sales are about to start.

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

David is spot on. Thanks to both.

@davidlazarus67

6 жыл бұрын

Walk The World Thank you.

Great video! can you please make a video on Bitcoin?

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Thanks, See my post on BC. kzread.info/dash/bejne/fIWTr8iBlbWxoJM.html

@MrCharaa

6 жыл бұрын

daniel sofoulis that’s a scam they say 1 btc will be worth 1 to 5 millions my question is who is the idiot going to pay 1 million for 1 btc not me I would rather buy few houses for that

@danielsofoulis9567

6 жыл бұрын

x y it could one day make it to that price. The fundamentals are solid and it's characteristics make it a better store of value than gold.

Off topic but... There is talk on the net re a "currency re-boot" to normalise the world / national economy, possibly initiated by Germany, UK, world bank or USA - what does it mean and how would such a re-boot affect an average Joe like me in Oz?

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Thanks, will add it to the [long] list...

@davidlazarus67

6 жыл бұрын

Breaker 1 The real problem is private debt. Until they address that then the problems will continue ad infinitum. A reset that does not wipe out trillions of debt and effectively revalues assets at a fraction big today’s prices will just be a bandaid on a gaping wound. It is more kicking of the can down the road. Next you need to be aware of who is telling you that a reset is coming. Many have links to gold dealers and brokers. They say that gold will be the beneficiary of any reset. The same is said by the bit coin enthusiasts. Both are looking like Ponzi schemes to me because they are relying on a greater fool to buy their gold or bitcoin. They are all predicting the demise of the dollar and its replacement by the Yuan. Now China has surpassed the USA in GDP depending on the measure but the UK was still the reserve currency for 70 years after the USA overtook the UK as the top economy. The Chinese do not have the depth in financial markets to replace the dollar and I also think it would be a mistake to become the reserve currency as it becomes increasingly difficult to obtain a trade balance as you need to maintain a supply of the reserve currency to maintain the global economy. As to how it can be prepared for depends significantly on the local domestic economic policies and I have no faith in their ability to understand the problem. It will be muddle through.

@damien2198

6 жыл бұрын

We are now in moral hazard world, busts will not be allowed anymore, Central Banks Governments are expected to do whatever it take, betting against them is suicidal IMO, properties/equities are safe ;-)

@davidlazarus67

6 жыл бұрын

Damien That is a significant problem until the market actually just collapses. The numbers of individuals involved in the stock markets are small and falling continuously, so the wealth effect so being minuscule to start with is shrinking. Just look at Japan where they now dominate every sector of the markets and could be said to have taken over the entire market. This then becomes a rigged market which you would be a fool to be involved in. Remember that the insiders are trying to sucker in greater fools to offload any shares that they can. Insiders are net sellers of stocks and only companies and institutions that have to be fully allocated are buying. As for property if they keep rising and wages are stagnant how can that continue? Either wages have to start rising in line with property prices or interest rates have to become negative. If that does not happened then all that happens is that money is drained from every other discretionary expenditure to pay rent or interest, that will collapse the economy. As for negative interest rates. Who would then deposit money in a bank if they had it shrink every single day? If your rainy day find shrank from $1000 to $900 over a year would you keep it in the bank? So all you do is show that a run on the banks becomes inevitable. When that happens leverage in the banks rises rapidly and it only takes a small mistake and the bank is insolvent. How long do you think they can maintain this charade?

@breaker1685

6 жыл бұрын

Interesting insights - thanks

How do these numbers compare to 2 years ago .

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Significantly higher in stress, the rise in young affluent stress in particular.

I have travelled Australia extensively for work and the rentals are insane everywhere. It's killing the middle and poor class. Also when you factor in the level of service for the cost we truly are getting ripped off. People have forgotten you must sow to reap. In a true capitalist environment, prices should be going down with better quality. Also oil could go above $100 very shortly which will put even more strain on the middle class.

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Yes, I see risks in Oil ahead...

4226 Ooops, still plenty of new german cars at school pick up

@WalkTheWorldDFA

6 жыл бұрын

Expenditure, often based on yet more debt...

@hounddog7256

6 жыл бұрын

ask the drivers if they paid cash for their rides... lol

@latitudetwentyfive

6 жыл бұрын

@ Damien.... Equals plenty try to keep up with the Jones' but swimming in debt.

@steveclayton4249

6 жыл бұрын

Good call Damian, middle class people trying to keep up with the neighbours, that's the biggest issue out there. Whats the point?