Absolutely loved this mate! Nice and clear explaination :) And covered all the main points i thought - Id love to have a chat with you somtime

Would be really cool to get this sort of analysis on the proposed fast track bill!

GB grid is planning to double pumped storage hydro capacity to 7GW despite not having much suitable terrain for that. Battery capacity has grown phenomenally and is now 3.5GW, with another 3.7GW under construction, and 24GW approved. 80% of GB nuclear capacity is scheduled for closure in the next four years.

@mineralswestcoast7581

16 күн бұрын

Time will tell. Forecasting is also for imports to increase to as high as 50TWh and I've also read news of plans to increase nuclear capacity to reduce exposure to Europe's reliance on Russian sourced gas.

@Tim_Small

11 күн бұрын

​@@mineralswestcoast7581 Whilst it's not impossible, I don't see Britain increasing nuclear much (if at all). The only plant under construction is Hinkley Point C, after 8 years of planning and negotiations, the contract was signed in Sept 2016 (initial supporting construction had already started at that point) - with it to start delivering power to the grid in 2025. Fortunately, all construction (and commercial risk) is carried out by EDF (Électricité de France). Current projections are for first power in "2028 to 2031", and costs have risen from £18bn to £35bn (both in 2016 £s i.e. cost rise excludes inflation). The one year (2022) that GB was a net exporter in the recent past was when a large proportion of EDF's French nuclear fleet was out of action due to urgent unplanned safety-related maintenance which impacted a lot of reactors simultaneously (generation was down about 25% over the year). This lack of French nuclear capacity accounted for the majority of this temporary import/export reversal (with additional impacts from Russia's invasion of Ukraine). In 2022 EDF was re-nationalised by the French government (they had to make up existing firm power delivery contracts with expensive gas generation, and this bankrupted the company). Britain doesn't have any domestic modern reactor designs, the French govt won't build any more reactors at a loss, so we'll see if the UK govt finally signs off on Sizewell C (agreeing to build it with EDF at taxpayers expense+risk, despite the massive cost and schedule overruns of the near identical project at Hinkley) The only other serious existing proposals are by China General Nuclear Power Group (state owned), which I don't see happening. Taken together Hinkley and Sizewell (6.5 GW total) just about replace the existing plants which are due to close in the next 4 years, but with a 10+ year gap before both are online. Around 6 GW of pumped hydro is likely to come online during that timescale. 12 GW of offshore wind are planned to come online before 2030, with an additional 50GW in early planning.

Mate, any chance on a chat about getting into the industry with yas?

Would it make sense to increase the power capacity of hydro without building new dams (ie putting in new generator units and penstocks on existing dams), while also building more wind and solar capacity? As I understand it, wind and solar can reduce the amount of electricity (GWh) that hydro needs to produce, and the expanded hydro capacity can meet demand when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. It might be cheaper to keep gas capacity in standby mode but the fact is that some day in the next decade or two, that industry is going to end whereas the hydro industry is going to be there for the forseeable future.

@mineralswestcoast7581

16 күн бұрын

This can be true in some circumstances, especially when dams have large storage capacity. Unfortunately, in NZ, our dams are largely run of river, and while they can store enough for load shifting on a day-to-day level, at any time more than say, six weeks' capacity can be held. This isn't enough to deal with seasonal variations in demand. Solar isn't something that fits into NZ's existing so system well (generates in the middle of summer and the middle of the day when needed the least, and saturates market at that time with electricity that can't be stored) and wind, while great, is volatile, and the more the grid is exposed, the greater the risk. People will continue to make decisions both as consumers and investors and keep toddling along, and I would guess gas and coal will over time play a diminishing but nonetheless vital role if security of supply continues to be something people value.

@SocialDownclimber

16 күн бұрын

@@mineralswestcoast7581 Ah, I was unaware of NZ's proportion of run of the river hydro. That makes a lot more sense, thank you!

Nz can do hydro, coal and renewables because of a small population, however, big companies and government dont want this as this is not profitable, shame really. I havent seen any new power schemes since the Clyde dam, all electrical infrastructure is getting towards the end of its useful life

Nuclear power is the future

UK has nuclear

Because of Rio Tinto's irresponsible behaviour, I think renewables, were held back from being implemented because of the fear of Manipouri supplying NZs grid and forcing prices down, which neither the Govt or the Electricity industry wants. At the moment we have hardly scratched the surface of what could be achieved with renewables in NZ. Also with so much small hydro, we have the unique ability to use those lakes as big storage batteries

@mineralswestcoast7581

16 күн бұрын

Tiwai Point and Manapouri have certainly been a source of uncertainty for many involved. Having said that, it's still only (in relative terms) 13.5% or thereabouts of national generation, with a huge question mark over how that output would be distributed (in terms of necessary investments in transmission and distribution) elsewhere in NZ, especially the North Island. This doesn't allow for the need for increased supply if talk of electrifying transport and industry ever comes to fruition, plus general increase in supply for population growth. Many unknowns, really.

Interesting stuff