The best non-aeronautical presentation that you've Ever Given....

@bendeleted9155

3 жыл бұрын

Good thing you didn't say "ever gave". You would never live down the missed opportunity. 😉 Nice one! 👍

@osumbuckeyenut

3 жыл бұрын

Ha!!! I read this twice before I caught what you said. Well played

@Gingerharry2011

3 жыл бұрын

Ba dum tish

@motioncompensation1544

3 жыл бұрын

I'm sure it will remain evergreen.

@ljfinger

3 жыл бұрын

Don't make me come over there.

Hello Juan, I watch your video posts daily. As the retired holder of an "Unlimited International License to operate any size ship in the world, a member of the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers, and a PHD in Engineering and Applied Science from the University of New Orleans I would like to comment. These very large container ships are subject to wind that is applied to the Freeboard or Air Draft portion of the ship that is facing the direction of the wind and are easily overcome by the cross wind. There is also another cause for this type of grounding. It is called "Bank Suction". Bank Suction occurs when a large ship gets closer to one side of the channel bank than the other. This causes the water that the ship is passing through to accelerate on the side of the ship's hull closest to the bank and a cushion effect pushes the ship off the bank toward the opposite bank. To overcome this phenomenon the rudder must be placed hard over to direct the bow back toward the bank on the opposite side. This type of action happens regularly in narrow ship channels. They will need to get a dredge there to suck the sand from under both ends of the ship to get it moving. I may have damage to the rudder or propeller which will cause further delay. I spent 32 years operating large ships and I know from experience that this situation could have a combination of causes.

@peterferrydriver

3 жыл бұрын

I would think that a ship with such a high profile to the wind and a beam that leaves little room in the channel to manoeuvre should not be permitted to operate in the given channel. Hoping that the two uncontrollable conditions will not happen is not a reasonable safety assumption. Either a towing arrangement, either by land or sea, that will guarantee 100% safe passage has to be implemented, or vessels of this size have to be excluded from using the channel.

@gcd123

3 жыл бұрын

Ground effect for ships

@peterhewitt2252

3 жыл бұрын

sweet info

@ginvr

3 жыл бұрын

Is this a similar effect (bank suction)to overtaking in a canal as shown here? kzread.info/dash/bejne/lqVsp7OPnJqtd5M.html

@easternwoods4378

3 жыл бұрын

@@gcd123Side drafting

I've had a hard time wrapping my head around the size of this ship until the Lego tugboat visual aid came out. I now understand that thing is an absolute behemoth.

You are a fantastic communicator, and you pinpoint the critical facts better than many Master Mariners would do. Bank suction as explained by Buster Brown here below is another critical point in this case. Congratulations

(1:12) "Contrary to some of the news reports . . . " -- this is why you have 235,000 followers. Your mission is to explain, illuminate and share insights in clear facts. Thank you from all of us.

@littlemopete931

3 жыл бұрын

Truth!

@jacobcastro1885

3 жыл бұрын

"Contrary to some news reports"... I'm listening.

@cementer7665

3 жыл бұрын

When the FACTS are NOT sensationalist enough, the MEDIA will always resort to manufacturing said 'facts'. Sensationalism sells, the truth does NOT.

@nicklambing9268

3 жыл бұрын

Juan is becoming world renowned for is phenomenal gift and his presentations as you so nicely indicate, to help us understand happenings such as this. I greatly appreciate this channel and thank you Juan for your time and this video! Nick, North West Farmer

@andyfpt

3 жыл бұрын

Great work. It's nice to be able to listen to a quality 10 min presentation on the topic. Whereas if you're not that interested you can just listen to the 30-60 second news report.

I've been following this Ever Given incident, and was very pleasantly surprised to see you covering it. Blancolirio is always a fantastic source of solid information.

Best props ever! Even the tub boat was the proper size. So nice to hear clear, honest discussion of this from a trusted source.

THANKS blancolirio, for the refreshing "engineering view" of the MV Ever Given grounding. Also, do appreciate the metric measurements. To add some points: 1) The Suez Canal may be bi-directional but shipping traffic is limited to one-way traffic at a time. 2) That one small earth mover is not going to have much of an effect. Take a second look at the profile of the canal depths. The MV Even Givens is will embedded on the western embankment. And it is likely the stern prop & rudder dug into the eastern embankment. 3) Lightening the load would be a very long process. Both literally & figuratively, there are few floating long reach cranes able to reach across the ~60m vessel. And who knows how long it would take to bring in the equipment. 3) Much of the ground the Suez Canal is built through is loose so a suction dredge would best be used to free the grounded ship. Once on site the process should go rather quickly, say days. This does assume the hull integrity is sound.

@gordonrichardson2972

3 жыл бұрын

A floating dredger is already onsite.

My son is the Chief Mate for the Maersk Chicago, and is currently transiting from the Atlantic into the Mediterranean. He may have to go around the Horn of Africa or Cape Town. They have some padding built into their schedules for storms or hurricanes; so we'll see. I'll ask him when we email him tonight.

@user936

3 жыл бұрын

You're comment might get lost here but update reply us anyway 🙂

@dx5018

3 жыл бұрын

Your sons input will be very interesting

@xyzlne

3 жыл бұрын

Delayed crew change !

@eftimaz

3 жыл бұрын

Why do you need to go around Cape Town to reach Mediterranean from the Atlantic

@Silverhks

3 жыл бұрын

@@eftimaz probably because the Med isn't their destination. My assumption is he's headed for the Suez Canal and then to SE Asia

Thanks, Pete, for the loan of your demonstration model... hope your Dad gave you the standard use fee!

@GodmanchesterGoblin

3 жыл бұрын

Maybe a few extra Lego bricks for another tug boat and a digger would be good too... :)

@mynewestusername1

3 жыл бұрын

How's tony evers.. everlast - what it's like Is a good song... Ever given? Nah not yet huh?

@mynewestusername1

3 жыл бұрын

@Peter Mortensen faster faster faster seance faster all statement no question faster faster

@mynewestusername1

3 жыл бұрын

@Peter Mortensen 😁 I'm a.m. elamite ... Faster faster faster .. no one's conspiring!!! All statements full steam ahead.. dont ask questions 🤣

@1STGeneral

3 жыл бұрын

Maybe the new Draco model airplane would be a good trade 🤔 or a ktm dirt bike I'm trying Pete

My father is a retired Master (unlimited tonnage, unlimited waters), 60 years as a Merchant Marine. In his last 20 years he was a pilot on the Mississippi River and Tampa Bay harbor (MUCH easier than the Mississippi). I let him hear your assessment and these were his thoughts. Bridge Management has been around as long as he was a MM, just doesn't use those words or perhaps the level of sophistication now. Whenever there's a maritime accident there is an assessment board to ascertain just what happened. Admiralty law is a very specialized form of Jurisprudence, and it has all the science that a FAA disaster team does when understanding a plane incident. And the first thing they do, is they piece together what was happening on the bridge, PLUS all commands given to the deck, engineering, and operations. Dad said that every captain's first job is to understand his ship. This means understanding how it will act in all conditions, even if the conditions haven't existed yet. In a court of law, the captain isn't going to get away with "this is a new ship and it does things other ships don't". The captain's responsibility is to know how it will react no matter what. As for the size, Dad has believed for years that we're getting to the bitter edge of a vessel's capabilities in hostile conditions, that too much size becomes a liability that you can't recover from. Now, how does that reconcile with the previous paragraph? Capt. Shows says "the worst problem ship's handlers get in is getting in a hurry". In other words, they won't wait to size up the conditions. Tugs? Tugs can come at any time in the movement of a vessel regardless whether they are docking, undocking, or simply moving through a waterway. But the CAPTAIN must REQUEST THEM. It is against the international Rules of the Sea to turn down a request for assistance. Too much work? What has happened in the last year is that shipping companies have been RETIRING their smaller, less profitable vessels and CUTTING THEM UP. It is expensive to dock a ship and let it sit. Crews have to stay on them to maintain them, from problems like theft, rot, and intrusion by rats and other pests. So shipping companies have been selling them for scrap and playing a waiting game that will allow them to build new ships. With the remaining ships they have been keeping crews on and, yes, overworking them. That's why this gargantuan ship is still plying the seas with an exhausted crew. Finally, when asked what's the one main problem, Capt. Shows said the general lack of seamanship. As ships become more automated, the art of piloting a vessel takes a backseat. For airline pilots, I've heard of this, especially on Airbus planes where it seems pilots are more "cockpit managers". The U.S. Navy has recognized this over the last decade and puts this as a reason for several of their disastrous collisions. Dad remembers the time there were no bow and stern thrusters, the way you made hard turns was to either let the current catch your stern or bow, or use your tugs. The fact the ship had no tugs in conditions with limited sight and winds sufficient to reduce ship's control and the captain had no requests for help in the form of tugs makes him feel either he was not informed by the Suez Canal control of conditions, or he knew but ignored them. Either way, it's a very expensive mistake. There are other possible explanations, these are just his thoughts.

@blancolirio

3 жыл бұрын

Thanks David!

@StoutProper

3 жыл бұрын

Top comment. I'm pretty sure captain and crew incompetence were to blame, there may well have been communication issues with the port authority pilot too. When they crew a ship this size with Indians they're definitely not doing it with their seamanship as the primary motivation. Imagine spending all the money on a ship and cargo then crewing it with the cheapest option available. This is what happens when you let bean counters run businesses

@Sailor376also

3 жыл бұрын

@@StoutProper Incompetence. Certainly possible. However,, the sea is the sea, and she may take you places you have never seen nor will ever see again. The sea will beat you over the head with a 2X4 and then kill you. There is zero, tech, ability, or competence that will defeat the sea always. The perfect vessel, the perfect crew have never,, I repeat, never had the upper hand.

@StoutProper

3 жыл бұрын

@@Sailor376also I agree, however they were in the suez canal not the sea, and there are a bunch of other ships in the canal at the time that had no issues. The conditions were clearly too much for the capabilities of the captain and the crew of that vessel, and they should have waited them out

@jahdawg321zieman4

3 жыл бұрын

Did you see the GPS track of this ship prior to entry?

I've watched several news stories about this and none have explained it better than you have.

Excellent report! I find the multinational component of the story interesting. A Japanese owned ship, operated by a Taiwanese shipping company, with an all Indian crew, an Egyptian Suez Canal Pilot, carrying Chinese goods to European markets. 👍🏼

@harlandanderson4586

3 жыл бұрын

@Gwiyomi Kim Ain't the world wonderful to make this all work... most of the time?

@mannyfernandez6860

3 жыл бұрын

you forgot her nationality is Panamanian.

@StoutProper

3 жыл бұрын

Aha they had an Indian crew, and I presume an Indian captain. It all makes sense now

@HoosierRallyMaster

3 жыл бұрын

And that Indian crew actually works for a German company.

@jenniferm8759

3 жыл бұрын

makes perfect sense why this happened lol.

There are two or three pilots on board for the long transit through the canal. Ships have cabins specifically for the Egyptian pilots to allow for rest and pilot crew changes. On observation of pilots during a transit in 2014, I got the impression it was more of a sinecure position than one based on piloting skills, but that may be a result of prejudice on my part. Another interesting bit is that a number of people selling souvenirs and trinkets are allowed on deck for the transit. The area of the canal where the ship is stuck is a one-way street, so to speak. There are two lakes in the canal where ships going one direction come to rest to allow the flow north or south bound boats to pass. Passage through the canal is a highly choreographed movement.

I don't know why an aviation channel has produced the best information I have found on a maritime accident. But you have. Thank you.

Thanks yet again, Juan. This was a clear, no-nonsense, very informative presentation about a marine event just as clear and no-nonsense as your videos on aviation events (haven't seen or heard of any videos by the seafaring folks). I'd bet Pete is proud of you!

We were on the Holland America cruise ship Volendam when it went aground on the Amazon River in 2019. It took about 9 hours of maneuvering, removing and changing ballast water in order to free ourselves with no tug assist. To be a passenger through that experience was interesting to say the least.

@JoeLinux2000

3 жыл бұрын

I think that's one solution, offloading fuel and water.

@scomo532

3 жыл бұрын

Getting a vessel that is stuck in mud is always very challenging. Mud sucks the vessel in and the va dear Waals forces between the clay and the metal of the hull can be quite strong and are directly dependent on the exposed underwater surface area of the hull

@StoutProper

3 жыл бұрын

@@scomo532 is that like the bank effect?

A ship is generally moved bodily by the wind requiring the ship to be steered "up" into the wind in order the travel along the intended course line. This is called leeway. The more windage (area of the ship on which the wind can push, as Juan explained so well), the more leeway. When the ship is longer than the canal is wide, there is only so much leeway available before the bow finds the bank.

@gordonrichardson2972

3 жыл бұрын

You mean the ship has to steer sideways, like an aircraft crabbing onto a runway?

@StickandGlider

3 жыл бұрын

@@gordonrichardson2972 sounds like it. 😎

@jsea0101

3 жыл бұрын

@@gordonrichardson2972 Exactly!

@larrybe2900

3 жыл бұрын

So the ship becoming its own sail needs to change position?

@18robsmith

3 жыл бұрын

@@larrybe2900 And ever has it been so

Always love learning from non-aviation situations and applying those lessons to my flying, thanks!!

This is a man I would buy a used car from without fear of being cheated. Cheers from Sweden.

I absolutely loved this episode. You made it easy to understand and explained more than I have have gotten from other individual sources. Thanks to your son for the use of his pirate ship as a stand-in for the tanker. It was really a helpful visual aid. I am delighted that other Patreon members asked you to look into this tanker event and that you have now added maritime issues to your portfolio of transportation related reporting. Thanks again Juan. Home run!!!

Impressive and comprehensive assessment from the Aviator !!! And far better than any other sources so far.. Cheers..

@cybervigilante

3 жыл бұрын

Yeah. I thought of the square footage of the sides in a crosswind, but no one in the MSM even thought of calculating it.

@lettersandnumbersuc

3 жыл бұрын

Everything he stated is void due to the photograph of one tiny excavator.... Hmmm.

@SteamCrane

3 жыл бұрын

@@lettersandnumbersuc It is very small by excavator standards.

I can confirm from personal experience that a 40-knot side wind with that much "sail" is going to push it, willy nilly. The bow thrusters can only do so much work and 40 knots on that much sail will overcome them. Brilliant analysis!!

You deserve an award for caring enough........ to execute a wonderfully helpful, informative and engaging presentation on the drama of this stuck vessel. I know absolutely nothing paramount of shipping / ships - i'm more interested in hip hop freestyle ! However,.... you're demeanor, tone, passion...... shined through and CAPTIVATED me to your presentation . YOU absolutely seem like the type of guy - friends would listen to talking..... about ANYTHING you desired to share . Thank you Sir - for the skillful way you spoke/shared this to an anonymous audience. : )

Love the presentation about what happened to this cargo ship. Your presentations are much better than the MSM. Thanks, Juan! 👍👏😁🤗😊

"Just like aviation, hours and hours and hours of boredom, with moments of panic, and sheer terror." Juan Brown.

@rodeo11

3 жыл бұрын

I don’t like to think about the pilot of my plane experiencing these moments of panic and sheer terror very often.

@grantjohnston5817

3 жыл бұрын

It s an old maxim!

@carlwilliams6977

3 жыл бұрын

@@rodeo11 I think it's pretty much the pilot's comical retort to the public's image of the glamorous pilot 's job. In reality, think Sully. In the vast majority of aircraft mishaps I've studied (in fact, there aren't many) his matter of fact, problem solving style is more than norm. They realize that if they don't solve the problem, they'll be first on the scene of the accident! Panic never solved a problem. They train accordingly!

@Don.Challenger

3 жыл бұрын

Hmm, isn't that what Minecraft is for, idling boredom away while keeping attention crisp? (I understand using Flight Simulator is frowned on while the pilots are actually flying to reduce flight crew confusion, so mostly Farming Simulator to keep their boots metaphorically firmly on the ground).

@paulmcknight4137

3 жыл бұрын

@@carlwilliams6977 Yep. Check out Tom Wolfe's accounts of Chuck Yeager in "The Right Stuff."

I'll bet Evergreen wishes their name on the side of the ship was much smaller.

@mariekrolly5249

3 жыл бұрын

HRC CODE NAME EVERGREEN THIS J HAND OF GOD

@jimwnek9098

3 жыл бұрын

@@mariekrolly5249 exactly this was no accident Hrc Cargo of corruption.

I am a 35 year retired merchant marine officer. The surface area of the freeboard plus the surface area of the containers and house structures is called windage and not sail area. Ships can crab and do crab into the wind or a cross current in order to maintain a course over ground (COG). Visibility is most likely not a factor because it has multiple radars for short and long distances plus it has electronic charts which shows position down to 2-3 meters, predictors which show where the ship will be in a short time at a given course and speed and a multitude of other navigational features too numerous to list It's possible a very strong wind could have blown it aground but I do not know the specific handling ability of this ship. The effectiveness of a bow thruster is reduced dramatically with speed. This ship has two bow thrusters. The ship had to maintain speed in order to maintain its track line, especially in 40 knots of cross wind. Another possibility is that it had a rudder or propulsion failure. Like modern passenger airplanes, large modern ships have ship data recorders and bridge voice recorders which will be used to help determine the cause of the grounding. Removing containers from the ends of the ship in order for the ship to draw less water cannot be done because it could cause the ship to sag, "called breaking her back", splitting the ship somewhere near her center of buoyancy.

Juan , You are an awesome person. I don’t fly or have any professional credentials. I’m just a regular joe. I watch your channel a lot and I think it’s because you are a strong, authoritative man who understands troubling situations and wants to help. God bless your soul and may heaven rain down many blessings on your family for lifetimes to come. I wish for you the very best in life. I have tremendous gratitude 🙏🏽 for all you do and for the opportunity to learn so many important things from you.

Juan, You amaze me on a constant basis how thorough you are with your reporting. In a time where so many new outlets be it amatuer or profession, are falling on their faces with clickbait and complete lack of information. You continually bring solid useable information to the masses at a level that really seems to surpass many other outlets for information. Thank you so much for the service you do.

Having worked as an investigator/naval architect on ship casualties for 20yrs, I can offer some relevant points to this matter and one particular question that you asked about wind side forces. When a ship is moving ahead at a speed above around 5kts, a sudden gust of wind from the side will first heel the ship like this container ship away from the wind direction upto 3-4deg. If the wind gust continues the next event will be to start pushing the ship laterally sideways. This will start to turn the ship's bow away from the wind. On a ship with as much exposed side area above the waterline as this one this rate of turn could be as much as 10deg/minute, or more. Hence a ship could be easily overwhelmed by a strong and continuous gust of wind, I understand around 40kts from reports in this case, and deviate enough from her course to run aground in a narrow channel, as happened here. Action from the rudder, if applied quickly, will start to have an affect after 30-40seconds, but to take full effect you have to turn the ship's hull first by a 2-3deg for the water pressure to start pushing the hull in the direction that you want it to travel. With a big ship like this at around 10kts this could take 60seconds or more to start to see any significant change in direction. From these processes, this is how they lost control of this ship.

@StoutProper

3 жыл бұрын

The effectiveness of the rudder will be determined by the volume of water the screws propel past it, correct? So in order to increase the force they would have needed to increase the speed of the screws? Also, if they were in a sandstorm and in zero visibility, they would have had to rely on their instruments right? Like flying ifr? Seems like incompetence on the part of the captain and crew to me. Or possibly pilot error

@Juan The Legend. This is perhaps one of the best, comprehensive & lucid explanation on Suez Canal Blockage incident. Greetings from India 👍👏

Love your model ! The tug boat was an added laugh . Always enjoy your videos. I’m an old Air Force Crew Chief ....

As always Juan, you provided the facts, science, and other possible influencing factors without the unnecessary drama and BS. It's been my observation for decades that "airplane people are also boat people" and you have just reinforced that belief. Well done sir!

A dredge could cut a 20 m deep trench alongside the vessel. The material under the vessel will slump into the trench. Alternatively air lift pumps could be used from the land side to excavate a trench or pit. Blocking drainage from this canal section could provide an increase in water level which could help float her. It will be interesting to see what the great minds come up with!!

This video and the comments from very well informed and experienced people is providing a better understanding of this grounding than anywhere else I have found. Thank you.

Juan spares no expense for the prop department...

@betteker1

3 жыл бұрын

I was hoping that he would mention what a cross wind does to a bow mounted canon.

@naysmith5272

3 жыл бұрын

@@betteker1 ha-ha

@robertalexander5422

3 жыл бұрын

Did you see the incredible detail on the bow thruster on Pete's pirate ship?

@njjeff201

3 жыл бұрын

Time for explosives!!

In this world of fake news and celebrity gossip led news, your channel is a breath of fresh air! 😁👍

@Wallyworld30

3 жыл бұрын

@@BrainScramblies America is sadly suffering from a pandemic of Conspiracy Theories. I'd love to never hear the word "Fake News" ever uttered again. If we see a case of poor reporting then call it out but let's stop with the brain rot conspiracy talk.

@Wallyworld30

3 жыл бұрын

@@BrainScramblies It doesn't have to be a conspiracy brother. Just find reporters you trust and watch them. Then to be safe fact check them and if you find them making mistakes STOP watching them. Of course main stream news needs the views and clicks that's been true since local TV stations became a thing. Remember the phrase "If it bleeds it leads"? I admit I don't watch network news I stick to guys like Juan and about 20 other independent journalists that I trust. I still fact check those that I do watch and if they make mistakes/lie I quickly cross them off my list of acceptable news sources.

@markmaki4460

3 жыл бұрын

@@Wallyworld30 *Rolls eyes*

@CMDRSweeper

3 жыл бұрын

@@Wallyworld30 Well here at Blancolirio you get Fact News! With all the details you could ever wish for and technical explanations... We need to clone Juan so we can always have a reporter of such in the future as it is clearly needed!

@Wallyworld30

3 жыл бұрын

@@CMDRSweeper Agreed.

Very good good job Juan.....I been watching this situation and MSMedia just dont understand anything, like they cant research...

Much appreciate your work, Juan! Great break down of the incident

Very well explained for an aviator! Thank you. As a professional mariner I can appreciate that. Personally I have been through the Suez Canal numerous times, although with a much smaller container ship, 240 meters in length, approx. 2400 TEU, about 30 years ago.. Ships in general will turn into the wind, due to the pivot point being forward of amidship going ahead. Besides the bank suction, as mentioned in the other comments, this needs to be compensated with the rudder. Bow and stern trusters have a limit of effectiveness. Above a certain speed, in general about 5 knots, they are not effective. I am not sure what the limitations of this particular vessel are. This is why, after the ExxonMobil Valdez accident, vessels above a certain tonnage and or length, need tug assists in certain parts of the world, to transit narrow channels, leaving and arriving. I do not know if the Suez Canal has such requirements. Also the ship's Captain is ultimately responsible, regardless of having a ship's pilot on board (exception the Panama Canal). I know that Smit Group, the Dutch salvage company, is hired to free the ship. Fuel needs to be pumped out first. Ship is fully laden, so minimum ballast on board. That hopefully will be enough to free her. The little excavator is a joke. As a last note, the pilot probably went full astern ounce he saw the ship going to starboard. This will cause a right handed prop vessel to move even further to starboard. This just my thinking of course I do not know what exactly happened. Thanks again for great video. We have to wait and see what further develops.

I'm pro truck driver going on 48 years experience, remember directional air force should be viewed with a fluid dynamics point of view, just like rip tide (aka undertow), especially on a vessel of this size there definitely can be more force in 1 area and less in another as the ship and gust collide into each other depending on the gusting nature at any given moment ..only way to escape it is to pass thru it but the narrow channel is just as bad as a downdraft at takeoff and landing, theres simply insufficient space to work a solution in time.

Thank you very much for this briefing on the incident, it shows how well you look into scenarios and describe what the important parts are. Even though there are many good journalists out and about, I somehow doubt that they would have given such an accurate analysis of the situation. Very well done. Thank you again.

I was researching this incident and was thrilled to see you did a video! As soon as I heard the intro music it took me back to all of the Oroville videos. Happy to see you're doing well and still making high-quality informational videos. Great work Juan

"Math, science, physics, economics/human factors." Never a truer word spoken @ 0:21 Edited to include the timestamp and quotation marks

@furmanodell

3 жыл бұрын

And weather. Don't forget weather.

@robbarton7972

3 жыл бұрын

You also are up against the fact that the force goes up with the velocity of the wind squared. Looks like they were in a no win situation they should have never started the trip.

@roderickcampbell2105

3 жыл бұрын

​@@furmanodell Agreed. But weather itself is mathematics, physics and more. I dreaded continuum mechanics. I suspect they didn't have a chance. But I don't think anyone got hurt. I guess a tonne of money has been lost :O Where's my wallet?

@steveholton4130

3 жыл бұрын

I think that if anyone on earth had any idea of the possibility of that wind and sand storm, that particular ship should have been prevented from entering the canal until the storm had passed by.

@movingpicutres99

3 жыл бұрын

Add Weather

OMG! In 38 years in law enforcement, I had often heard it described as hours and hours of routine interspersed with moments of sheer terror. Fallible human beings called upon to perform perfectly all the time and then having to make life or death decisions in seconds or tenths of a second. The parallels are amazing. Your comments about human factors are spot on. Thank you for covering this and showing a side that the mainstream media completely missed.

Awesome video as usual, thanks Pete for helping dad do his report

I love your explanation of flight issues and this problem. Thank you so much for doing what you do.

...an important reminder in less than ideal conditions: Marinate, Navigate, and Communicate.

@niklaspilot

3 жыл бұрын

Marinate 😂👍🏻

@stevet8121

3 жыл бұрын

Comment of the week. Well done.

@mooorecowbell4222

3 жыл бұрын

@@stevet8121 Thank you for this honor inspired by Sir Juan Brown himself. ✈️

@phillee2814

3 жыл бұрын

Marinate is probably what the pilot and captain are doing right now - they are certainly in a pickle!

@reformCopyright

3 жыл бұрын

I sea what you did there.

Retired Merchant Marine Officer: Pilots "advise" the Captain except in either a Panama Canal transit or entering drydock. In these two cases the Pilots have full control and responsibility. Not sure how much help a bow thruster is if a ship has "way-on", but a powerful tug, yes. Might be a requirement there from now on. The Suez Canal banks are sloped so bank cushion/suction is less effective. Because of this , I believe the Suez Canal has either a North Bound only then South Bound only convoys. Unlike the Houston Ship Chanel in which the banks are vertical and here bank cushion and suction is used for "meeting" traffic. This is Egypt so I am not surprised to see only one toy excavator and no dredges yet. De-ballasting and de-bunkering would tricky for stability reasons unlike a tanker.

@Harzhopper

3 жыл бұрын

Does Ever Given havbe such ballast bunkers ?

Thank you for exposing data in metrics as well. Your demonstration is clear. Thanks for this sharing!

I've driven a 90 foot yacht and in a high cross-wind it was a bear to navigate it straight when coming into a channel I was moving about 20 degrees off center to keep from running aground on oyster beds. It had a bow thruster for docking, but it couldn't hold up to that wind and was not very helpful.

@jkaugust3586

3 жыл бұрын

Speaks the voice of experience

@MountainFisher

3 жыл бұрын

@@jkaugust3586 Ordinarily I drove my dad's 47 foot fishing boat and acquired a "Master's" license with the Coast Guard in the '70s to take out fishing charters. During the winter we mostly commercial fished on the weekends. It is how I worked my way through college.

Which way the ship pivots depends on the relationship between the center of effort of the wind (center of sail area) and the center of lateral resistance of the hull in the water. This can change with load distribution above the gunnels. If the vessel has sufficient way (forward speed) the rudder can counteract the turning moment. The problem here was the heading into the wind the ship had to steer to stay on course. With such a narrow channel, a high wind will result in a high enough difference between heading and course made good that grounding becomes inevitable. The question then becomes what grounds first, the bow or the stern. If the stern grounds first, the bow will swing downwind and grounds on the same side as the stern. If the bow grounds first, the vessels momentum will push it down the channel rotating it further until the stern grounds on the opposite side from the bow, blocking the channel. It's possible that the pilot was trying to avoid grounding the stern to avoid damage to the rudder and screws. It's also possible that the wind lightened significantly and there was then too much upwind heading, sending the bow onto ground. Probably some combination of both.

@mannyfernandez6860

3 жыл бұрын

so who messed up?

@davenunyabusiness4893

3 жыл бұрын

@@mannyfernandez6860 it idiot that cleared the transit, the engineers that designed the ships, the reg agency that cleared that type of ship for the suez canal and of course the crew for not saying f that I'll wait.

@StoutProper

3 жыл бұрын

Don't forget the bank effect too

@StoutProper

3 жыл бұрын

@@davenunyabusiness4893 clearly high cross winds and low visibility in a narrow channel are sub optimal for a ship this size and they should have waited

Very good. You did all the calculations like your a pro. Oh that’s right, you do these types of calculations all the time. Thanks for explaining in a language I understand.

Awesome videos, thank you for taking your time and making them.

noticing the cargo: mostly coffee and toilet paper at least they are well prepared. shipping agent: hey, we are seeing a huge difference in the manifest compared to the load out! master: we spent some time in the sand, don't ask.

Having done this work for almost 40 years, I fail to understand how the pilot onboard didn't request or advise the master to have an assist tug for the possibility that this very thing could happen. Unless this wind event was not forecast, and caught everyone by surprise, someone is going to get the blame here. Modern tractor boats have extraordinary power and can absolutely have held her on course. It's up to the pilot to advise the Master in this situation. When the pilot comes aboard, he assumes full command of the vessel's maneuvering. However if the poop hits the fan, ultimately the fault falls on the ships master! Interesting? I've investigated several incidents where a large ship was aground and the pilot just hands the master a business card with a law firm name and left the vessel.

@eftimaz

3 жыл бұрын

You are wrong here. Except in Panama Canal, the pilot never assumes the comand of the vessel. He operates as advisor to the Master and the Officer of the watch.

@Kromaatikse

3 жыл бұрын

I'm told that the Suez pilot only rides on the first ship in a convoy, and the rest follow in line astern. I've seen some tracking data now, which seems to indicate the ship was blown off course to the left, turned right to compensate, and thereby drove into the right bank very hard. I'm not sure a pilot being on board would have helped much.

@johnnieguitar5724

3 жыл бұрын

Exactly my thoughts. Youd think the captain and owners would have knowledge of the sail effect , and anchor in the ocean until the Suez winds dropped. There are many KZread videos of huge ships pushed into danger by wind!

@orchidorio

3 жыл бұрын

Thank you for this insight. Fascinating. (3/26/21)

@harborcbs

3 жыл бұрын

@@eftimaz In almost every port, A foreign flagged ship must take a pilot. The pilot assumes complete control of maneuvering of the vessel. This being the Suez canal, I may not be 100% sure in this situation. I am retired almost 20 years now and rules have changed. However, In most instances if you know the international rules, there is a conflict here as the pilot does have complete say in steerage of the vessel, unless the master feels that there is imminent danger to his vessel. At that point there is a grey area as to who is liable. If the Master takes control from the pilot and the ship crashes, the Master is at fault because the pilot has the local knowledge and should be commanding the vessel. If the master does not assume control from the pilot and the ship crashes, the master is still at fault because that is his ship and he should have overridden the pilot to save his vessel. In any case, why no assist tug? If that was my vessel I would have wanted the extra security knowing that I had that available should I need it. I'm sure Evergreen can't be that cheap!

Now were into ships and waterways wow you do not miss much thank you for your time. You did great getting this info together in such a short time.

I love this guy! Ever since his coverage of the dam. Thank you, Juan, for your generosity and clarity. Love your theme song too.

There’s a huge amount of containers on that ship. WOW 😯

I grew up in southeastern Pennsylvania. Next door neighbor's job was piloting ships through the Delaware Bay and up the Delaware River into Philadelphia. He was always on call and often had to go to work in the middle of the night. And yes, it is a fascinating job.

@Scarletgirl33

3 жыл бұрын

Yes!!!! I’m from Marcus Hook and I know EXACTLY how tight this space is...

@martharetallick204

3 жыл бұрын

@@Scarletgirl33 My father worked in Marcus Hook!

I've learned so much watching his analysis over the years

Looked it up and this ship is 90% the length of the longest ship ever built the oil tanker Seawise Giant. So couple that with the amount of freeboard and it's a massive sail.

Thank you so much Juan, for this brilliant explanation 👌. And special thanks to Pete for letting you use his pirate ship 😊.

Former Merchant Officer, couple of points: 1) when a ship is moving forward with more than a few knots of headway, the pivot point of the ship moves to about 1/3 of the way back from the bow. This means that more sail area - that is the correct term - is aft of the pivot point so it would be significantly easier to blow the stern over than the bow. 2) above not withstanding, if the stern grounded first, momentum would more likely pull the bow over to the same side, whereas a bow grounding first would create the correct momentum to pivot the stern over. 3) In a narrow channel, there is bank and squat effects (kinda like ground-effects when a plane floats down the runway) which could have an impact on both of the above. 4) Bow thrusters were most likely useless in this scenario and probably weren't even ready to use. they are only effective at really slow speeds, couple of knots at most. 5) Also, rudder effectiveness on ships is more controlled by the amount of water the screw is pushing past it than of water moving past it by ship's motion, so it is entirely possible that the rudder was overpowered by those winds. I have been in a situation where wind has exerted so much force on my ship - with less than 1/2 the sail area - that I had to use almost hard rudder (35*) while at sea speed (15kt) to get back on course. 6) It sounds like the crew relief crisis is now mostly over, but some people were out there for almost a year! Its not so much an acute fatigue issue, its a more chronic mental health issue. 7) Removing said ship is going to require a significant effort, because its not just the hull weight they have to free, but also a suction effect the canal bottom has on the ship's hull.

@TD_YT066

3 жыл бұрын

The front end of that ship is nearly at the waterline level of an empty ship, that means as much as 1/2 of the weight of the ship's payload is stuck in the dirt at the bow, the back end of the ship is also lifted , only a little, but it's got to be a good fraction of the payload weight. There is a lot of water not being displaced right now. Empty ship : kzread.info/dash/bejne/hGuCyc6gc7bNdNY.html , full ship : kzread.info/dash/bejne/jHWM2quMZbu5o5M.html IMO, they're going to have to undercut dirt under the hull of the ship with high pressure water , ie hydraulic mining, and then dredge the canal back after they refloat it. They can't just pull on the front with that much force, it'll tear out unless they put some sort of load spreader on it. They will need to lower that front back to close to the fully loaded (- some ballast and fuel) waterline to move it.

@JoeLinux2000

3 жыл бұрын

Interesting points based on extensive knowledge and experience.

@JoeLinux2000

3 жыл бұрын

@@TD_YT066 I agree the bow seems high for sure.

@javaguru7141

3 жыл бұрын

This comment section is a gold mine. Thank you for your explanations.

@StoutProper

3 жыл бұрын

It ain't moving anywhere fast for a while, can't understand why those ships haven't gone around, they're gonna be waiting for longer than ten days for sure.

Very cool. The Little Excavator was very funny.

Thank you, thank you!!!!! For the metric conversion. It made it all more enjoyable and worth watching because I can register the info without "brain crash"

Great job explaining the situation and possible goings on out there. Lots of great information and easily understood.

The incident could also be caused by the “bank effect”. Basically, during navigation into a channel, a low pressure is being generated between the side of the vessel and the closest bank, the result is the stern being “sucked” in the direction of the bank. Size and in particular speed of the vessel have strong relevance in generating this phenomenon. Also bank effect has some similarities to the aviation sector. Look for “bank effect” on YT for some quite good explanations.

@Greenketch1

3 жыл бұрын

This is very much correct. Bank effect causes challenges and if you get drawn in it is very difficult to resist. In addition to the mentioned effect drawing the stern toward the bank when parallel to the bank if one gets sideways, like the Ever Given did, whichever end got close to the bank would then be drawn closer quickly by the higher velocity of the water trying to get out of the way. Over all it would be a rough time to recover from.

@harlandanderson4586

3 жыл бұрын

@@Greenketch1 It is Bernoulli's principle all over again.

@sonidamara5018

3 жыл бұрын

Any vessel bigger than this ship? 400 meter is bigger than aircraft carrier...

@jenniferwhitewolf3784

3 жыл бұрын

In shallow water, higher velocity will also pull a ship lower into the water. One ship builder in Scandinavia depends on this to get out of port where built, under a bridge that a few meters too low. They speed up, get sucked lower into the water over the shallow sea floor, and pass just below the bridge.

@leadie3430

3 жыл бұрын

@@jenniferwhitewolf3784 It also appears as if the ship was traveling about 13 kts which would increase the bank cushion and bank suction effect

In a strong wind, a Box Boat (Or, for that matter, those Floating Mountain cruise ships) become sailboats - without keels.

@JoeLinux2000

3 жыл бұрын

Good description.

@scomo532

3 жыл бұрын

Not quite true, they most certainly have keels and their ballast is very large. The problem is that in high wind, their center of effort vastly exceeds their center of resistance and unlike a sailboat, the “sails” cannot be luffed in the wind, so the vessel will not turn upwind, but will move sideways. Hence the pickle that Ever Given finds herself.

Juan you go to the heart of things so efficiently. The engineering is so important. I really welcome your comments about crew change in the maritime industry.

Two Dutch tugboats are on there way. This week High tides are looking promising, she be out there soon. If not... ooh boy.

Thanks for this update Juan, love your professional analysis on these videos!

Juan, keep spreading your wings please (pardon the pun). An analytical and honest approach gives valuable insight to any issue. Thanks for the reporting.

Thank you Jaun, always enjoy your presentation

Hey Juan. You can report about painting the fence and i still will love to watch it. Great report as always. Thank you 😊

The ship will tend to rotate around the rudder, so the 'front' of the ship (bow) will act like a wind sock.. Yea, think wind sock.. the pole being the rudder. Love the pirate ship visual aid too!!!

@18robsmith

3 жыл бұрын

Not always true - the pivot point of a ship can be some way forward, and is often about at about the 80% of length from the bow. Over years of handling narrow boats, which have a similar set of ratios as the "Ever Giant" has, it can be a long way forward of that - the worst I had was running light where the pivot point was about 20% in from the bow - which is really weird.... But that said, in a high wind the wind wins almost every time, and one enters the tender embrace of the bank and or the silt.....

Thanks for the Metric for Canadians as well!

@TheBeingReal

3 жыл бұрын

Most of us engineers prefer metric too!

@Kromaatikse

3 жыл бұрын

Fun fact: 400m is also roughly the length of a full-size Shinkansen or Eurostar set, and is the length of train that most German railway sidings are designed around. It's basically a quarter of a mile.

@larrybe2900

3 жыл бұрын

@@Kromaatikse To get real scientific, over four US football fields long.

@petehoskins1267

3 жыл бұрын

And Australians and our neighbours in New Zealand. 👍

@pulaski1

3 жыл бұрын

Given that we're just talking about something "really big", and for general understanding, are people who were only taught the metric system too daft to understand that, for general understaning purposes, one metre is roughly 3ft? FWIW I was only ever taught the metric system (which is great for science), but I have had no problems picking up pounds and ounces for cooking and yards, feet and inches for projects around the house and garden. Imperial measurements _really_ aren't that difficult!

Bigger is better, until it's too big to manage. This guy supplies the most concise information, in his back yard, with a toy boat, and some leggo.

Thanks Juan for the explanation and factual report. You do .much better than the national news. Pete did a good job too.

In 1991 I was invited by my brother-in-law on a "Tiger Cruise" aboard the USS Acadia from Pearl Harbor to San Diego as it returned from Desert Storm. During the trip, I was allowed to officially man the helm (drive the ship) for two 45 minute stints. The first time was during flat seas and calm wind. After a while, I was able to get the feel of the delayed effect of the rudder on the ship, and steer it OK. As i recall, I was instructed to maintain heading within 2 degrees using no more than 5 degrees rudder. I would later joke to my friends that that after a rudder correction I could smoke a cigarette waiting for the bow to start to come around. These big ships react that slowly. My second time "driving" was during a medium crosswind and about 8-10 foot seas. It was a real bitch trying to maintain heading, so I can understand what this ship was going through in that crosswind. I can't believe someone would attempt to navigate a narrow canal with a ship that size during those weather conditions. I would think the canal would be closed to traffic during those times.

@Kromaatikse

3 жыл бұрын

The largest ship (probably a boat, technically) I've ever steered was a lot smaller than that, but it was big enough to require forward planning of helm movements to stay on course. It only took a few minutes of instruction to learn how to "meet" the ship so that she settled on course instead of overshooting it.

@peterferrydriver

3 жыл бұрын

Agree 100%. The canal should not permit vessels of this size when the wind is above a given speed. There should also be a mechanical arrangement to keep such vessels mid channel.

@michaelimbesi2314

3 жыл бұрын

Well, the Suez Canal pilots are very experienced. Navigating the canal is literally the only thing they do. They have to know every twist and turn by heart. Also, the Suez Canal is such an important shipping route that it can’t really shut down for stuff like that. And normally, they can sail through it just fine. Someone just screwed up this time.

@operator0

3 жыл бұрын

@@peterferrydriver I'm sure the Canal Authority will have a long hard look at their SOPs. Keep in mind that this canal makes a lot of money for the country, and economic concerns are looked at just as judiciously. It's up to the canal to decide if it's worth it, financially speaking, to have the canal blocked for a week every ten or so years, vs stopping the flow of traffic every time the forecast shows high winds.

@peterferrydriver

3 жыл бұрын

@@operator0 I agree that there is a risk assessment at play. It may depend on what the final insurance/ commerce interruption bills will be. The stopping of traffic in high winds may just be applied to the Ultra Large Container ships.

From aeronautical to nautical....it's a natural progression 😁😁😁😁 Even without your nautical knowledge, and just with your general knowledge and I'm sure some good investigative research, you've provided a better report than any of the news posts I've watched. You're have true straight to the point honest and the best channel on YT bar none....always enjoy watching no matter the subject you cover. Cheers from Aus!!!!!

Wow, Juan gets out both wheelhouses (Am. slang). He goes nautical AND metric! 👍👍👍 Imperial units can be found in only 6 territories remaining. One of these is the notorious Myanmar. And the rest are some Caribbean islands…

Next Hollywood movie; Tom Hanks as the captain of a tugboat to move that ship out. He always play the captain in crises. LOL..

@blancolirio

3 жыл бұрын

In his Forrest Gump character...lol

@victoriaflood5698

3 жыл бұрын

Dude. Tom Hanks has been executed for crimes against humanity. He was a pea dough and a hit man for the Hollywood mafia. He was a sorcerer and a Rockefeller. Forget his movies. Forget him. Forget his wicked and fake life. Please wake up and realize there is a very real international child trafficking multi billion dollar business going on in the buying and selling of children for sacrifice to their cruel gods.

@emergencylowmaneuvering7350

3 жыл бұрын

@@victoriaflood5698 You mean the Democrats enticing Mexican Mafia to toss kiss over the fence?? And biden put them on hotels??

JB, you show up to explain multiple scenarios, land, sea or air, I'm all ears👂 I'm always greatful for your intervention and delivering the news as it always makes me think. Thanks, take care and fly safe. 🖖🏽🤟🏽

Dont care what ya report on....we....your audience just like hearin ya talk as you mostly talk facts and some mild speculation....nothing ridiculous. Thanks as always

The Ever Given does have two bow thrusters, but no stern thruster. However, ship thrusters are meant to be used for slow speed docking maneuvers and become ineffective above about 2 to 5 knots (depending on design). And while the Suez Canal has a speed limit of about 8 knots, ships need to maintain speed to maintain steerage (ie water passing over the rudder). So they were probably transiting at a speed that makes the thrusters of little or no value for maneuvering.

Thanks for covering this Juan!

Rates right up there with Oroville dam coverage! Great stuff, Juan.

Now you are in my wheelhouse. The maritime industry has borrowed from aviation's Cockpit Resource Management (CRM) heavily although it is usually called something else, it's the same concept and the same issues exist.

@andy_in_colorado7060

3 жыл бұрын

That's fascinating (but it makes obvious sense, after a couple moments' thought). Hasn't much of the aviation industry terminology been adapted from centuries' worth of maritime experience? (Just noticed I used 2 plural possessive apostrophes in 2 sentences, but I think I got it right).

@Argosh

3 жыл бұрын

@@andy_in_colorado7060 I actually use my training from my time as an ATCO Trainee very productively in my current job ;) The problems change, the solution (teamwork) stays the same.

@mannyfernandez6860

3 жыл бұрын

ships came before planes .

@jkaugust3586

3 жыл бұрын

Don't kid yourselves. "CRM" existed in the USN way back in the 1970s when I served, and it wasn't new then. Just under another name.

@Argosh

3 жыл бұрын

@@jkaugust3586 certainly. CRM and all other forms of formalized teamwork have their roots far back into the study of human psychology. I'd say the military have had a large jump start due to the world wars and the enormous psychological effects on service members. It's just the background of this channel that naturally draws people with an aviation focus. It should however be noted that outside of small unit training true development has been in the civilian sector starting in the 90ies. I'd actually point to things like the agile manifesto as another example of the general concept of teamwork being formalized.

Egyptian authorities are ignoring the situation and are in De Nile.

Thanks for the update skipper

You showed the cross section of the canal with Ever Given. Considering Ever Given's draft she doesn't have much maneuvering room before grounding. The Suez Canal is basically a sandy ditch once the bow grounds the ships momentum (200,000+ tons!) will drive the bow in hard and the stern will swing around and ground on the opposite side.

@billbowden8047

3 жыл бұрын

@Andrew Dean The ship's name is 'Ever Given', she is owned by Evergreen Shipping

@thelastshallbefirst6531

3 жыл бұрын

@Andrew Dean Evergreen is the owning company, Ever Given is the name of the ship. Awesome explanation about the cross winds.

@garywheeler7039

3 жыл бұрын

Engineers call it the "angle of repose", that is why the sides are angled. Its just not possible for wet sand to be piled at a sharper angle. It slumps.

@JamesThompson-ol3eu

3 жыл бұрын

@@billbowden8047 Thanks that has been driving me crazy!

@StoutProper

3 жыл бұрын

They'd have been better grounding the stern first, then the bow would have grounded on the same side

While its some time ago - and its a different ship entering Port in a Hurricane - there is at least one precedent for a ship being blown off course. In the Case of the Union Shipping Co RoRO Ferry "Wahine" in 1968 (about 12,000tons) it was driven onto a reef and soon sank. Of course it had a much smaller sail area, but the wind gusts were ferocious. Maybe this Suez incident (like so many accidents) could have been anticipated - but one good thing, I am sure that this will lead to changes in navigation and control procedures in the canal.

This guy is one the most informative channels on situations like this

So clear and helpful in giving an understanding of the situation.

Blessings all, nailed it, thanks again for being you ❤🙏

Those dust storms that come out of the desert are something to see. I've been in at least three, one when I was working offshore Doha, Qatar, in the Persian Gulf, one when I was working in the Mediterranean, out of Port Said, Egypt (the north entrance to the Suez Canal, and the most dramatic was the one that blew up out of a clear blue sky, when I was working in eastern Niger, on the border with Chad. (That one obscured the sky just like the pictures you have seen of the black skies associated with the American Dust Bowl).

Thank you for the crisp and articulate explanation.

I worked in Port Byron IL along the Mississippi River and watched a tow attempt to negotiate the bend to the south for a few hours during a very, very windy morning. It kept getting pushed to the east bank at the bend. The tow would back up stream, and made a couple more attempts. It finally just backed up stream and tied onto the bank and waited for the wind to die down. It was a full tow with 15 barges tied together. Doesn't surprise me that this happened with such an outstandingly tall vessel as the Evergreen.