Professor who correctly predicted 9 presidential elections weighs in on Biden vs. Trump

Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University who has accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections, tells CNN’s Laura Coates why he thinks President Joe Biden has an advantage in 2024 despite polling that shows him trailing former president Donald Trump.
#CNN #News

Пікірлер: 8 400

  • @weskarcher483
    @weskarcher48319 күн бұрын

    Not to brag but I have predicted North Korea's election and have been right every time.

  • @mathildewesendonck7225

    @mathildewesendonck7225

    17 күн бұрын

    I have predicted Russia‘s election outcome for 20 years

  • @ConsiderIt

    @ConsiderIt

    17 күн бұрын

    😂

  • @jimwright2795

    @jimwright2795

    16 күн бұрын

    That comment was Delicious! What's for dessert?

  • @guybrulotte670

    @guybrulotte670

    16 күн бұрын

    You have a very good sense of humor. En français, vous êtes un bon prédicateur. de Québec-Canada.

  • @jimwright2795

    @jimwright2795

    16 күн бұрын

    @@guybrulotte670 I am humbled. Thank you.

  • @angelusmortis3150
    @angelusmortis315019 күн бұрын

    Only poll that matters is election day.

  • @JohnnyVetter

    @JohnnyVetter

    19 күн бұрын

    Independent Voter Absolutely voting Blue 🇺🇸

  • @crispinfornoff206

    @crispinfornoff206

    19 күн бұрын

    @@JohnnyVetter You’re not an independent if you’re voting for a color. That’s not what independent thinkers do.

  • @dougdownunder5622

    @dougdownunder5622

    19 күн бұрын

    The rigged election weeks you mean.

  • @vintagepyro3692

    @vintagepyro3692

    19 күн бұрын

    Democrats and Republicans have p1ss3d off the 110 MILLION AMERICANS left in this country. They better prepare to be held accountable and prepare for a lesson that history will never forget!

  • @GenghisWanghis

    @GenghisWanghis

    19 күн бұрын

    ​@@crispinfornoff206this year they do 😂 anyone who can think at all, Independently or otherwise, knows "blue" is better than the other "option" which is "fake red"

  • @DEichenberg
    @DEichenberg11 күн бұрын

    He isn't wrong. The polls are often way off. Just a general pulse.

  • @chris42690

    @chris42690

    6 күн бұрын

    Always, polls had Biden winning Texas in 2020.

  • @mattbosco2178

    @mattbosco2178

    2 күн бұрын

    He's clearly wrong. Biden could win. But Trump is clearly more likely to win at this point in time. Immigration, inflation, RFK's high polling, and widespread incompetence and senility are destroying Biden's odds. If Trump is convicted of a felony, which seems likely, it will likely pull down his numbers. It's easy to sit on the sidelines with your magic system and pretend you know something that everyone else doesn't when you actually know less. Then if you happen to be right, like any child could be, you claim your magic system works, and a bunch of retards on social media will believe you are a guru because they don't understand that successfully betting on an outcome when you already have information is neither random nor difficult. Biden's economy is like Jimmy Carter's...people are unlikely to reward that.

  • @LBM01028

    @LBM01028

    10 сағат бұрын

    @@chris42690Polls had Biden winning in 2020 and he did. The polls are more often right than wrong by a long shot.

  • @user-su9fs1bn3v
    @user-su9fs1bn3v13 күн бұрын

    This is the first guy I've seen in the last year who predicted Trump's victory and I never wait long enough till the end to see who they choose for 2024 because it scares the holy f****** s*** out of me

  • @rebeccaking3514

    @rebeccaking3514

    12 күн бұрын

    Yes, if Biden wins, we are all screwed big time!

  • @tribefanjames

    @tribefanjames

    10 күн бұрын

    Need help packing

  • @ryantay9642

    @ryantay9642

    10 күн бұрын

    Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

  • @danielholland792

    @danielholland792

    8 күн бұрын

    Bye, you wont be missed. Take that professor with you.

  • @danielholland792

    @danielholland792

    8 күн бұрын

    ​@@j.d.v.bye

  • @bozzab369
    @bozzab36918 күн бұрын

    The rest of the world is wondering how it could even be close..

  • @pejbartolo2365

    @pejbartolo2365

    18 күн бұрын

    Wondering? This is a country that has the highest number of flat earthers, people who believe that one day zombies will rise and in order to prepare for it, you need to build fortified fortress. A country that has more mass shootings per year than the days in calendar and the only wondering you can come up is what did those kindergarten do to piss off someone to go to his armory and started spraying children with bullets. That is the dumbest country..

  • @suites.74

    @suites.74

    16 күн бұрын

    Israel and Ukraine. Both wars very few people support funding for. So Biden voters don't even want to answer the question. Meanwhile Trump supporters are always active

  • @brenrenn8306

    @brenrenn8306

    16 күн бұрын

    Every person I know in Canada, which is many, says exactly that to me, they wonder what in the world are people thinking in the United States who would vote for Trump.

  • @dealerdude

    @dealerdude

    16 күн бұрын

    And why would they vote for Biden ​@@brenrenn8306. Considering under Trump, no wars , no inflation, no border crisis, safer country. Yeah I dunno. FJB. Trump 2024

  • @meisievannancy

    @meisievannancy

    16 күн бұрын

    RFKjr will win the vote if either Biden or Trump pull out of the race.

  • @user-ho1yn6ms7y
    @user-ho1yn6ms7y16 күн бұрын

    Great quote:”Polls are snapshots that are abused as predictors.”

  • @3dguy839

    @3dguy839

    15 күн бұрын

    We need to go back to planet of the apes society No tech or information 😕 🤔 😢 😐 😪 😞

  • @EtsySpellcaster-fy3sl

    @EtsySpellcaster-fy3sl

    15 күн бұрын

    They’re also incredibly inaccurate because of the demographics likely to answer them, and as well as people trolling the polls saying they’re pro trump even if they aren’t

  • @gaittec

    @gaittec

    15 күн бұрын

    Polls are snapshots that form a trend over time.

  • @JimDandy-rn4vd

    @JimDandy-rn4vd

    14 күн бұрын

    As true today as they were in 2016

  • @rgncal4872

    @rgncal4872

    14 күн бұрын

    Biden is failing short term economy /long term economy/ incumbent charisma/ social unrest/ foreign/military failure/ and foreign military success that’s 6 right there and RFK might be in the polls that’s 7/ the man and himself is a scandal and his family as well so is trump, what keys does he have success with party mandate ? Given.contest . Given incumbency . Given and no policy change cause he doesn’t have a policy to begin with. I’m and independent voter leaning RFK or not voting , I see a lot of bad keys for Biden than Trump and that’s simply a man that at pro Israel and pro palistinian rally’s both saying F Joe Biden.. both sides of the protesters are chanting it.. just like everyone else wants a better economy less inflation less spending , ppl want what we had in 2016-2020 over what they have now and you don’t have to be a republican to think that. My 2 cents .

  • @joeb6947
    @joeb69477 күн бұрын

    I predict the real winner is his Chandler Bing hairpiece

  • @SeanVanGorden
    @SeanVanGorden10 күн бұрын

    The problem isn’t lack of money, food, land or water. The problem is you’ve given control of these things to a group of psychopaths and their families who care more about maintaining there power than helping mankind- Bill Hicks 1961-1994 There are a lot more of us than there are of them. Don’t forget who the people of this country are. Us. The truth is going to come out this year. I promise.

  • @lindamannix1247

    @lindamannix1247

    9 күн бұрын

    I can only keep praying that you are right, Mr Van Gorden. How can anyone in their right mind vote for that feeble brained old fool ?

  • @TraciDoering-hw8hu

    @TraciDoering-hw8hu

    4 күн бұрын

    I agree with you and Bill Hicks. Can you point me to a general source or idea of what gives you reason to be confident it will be this year? I understand if you’d rather not. This year sounds good to me!

  • @selohcin

    @selohcin

    2 күн бұрын

    This is absurd. You're talking like one of those ever-delusional Q-Anon believers. "THIS year will be different! I promise!!" 😆🤣

  • @Hadeto_AngelRust

    @Hadeto_AngelRust

    2 күн бұрын

    who are you voting though?

  • @SeanVanGorden

    @SeanVanGorden

    2 күн бұрын

    @@Hadeto_AngelRust Read that question back and reiterate your words please.

  • @i.ehrenfest349
    @i.ehrenfest34914 күн бұрын

    This doesn’t make sense. He says he was right in 2000 because Gore won the popular vote, but then he was also right in predicting trump in 2016 - when of course Clinton won the popular vote

  • @mandoy2080

    @mandoy2080

    13 күн бұрын

    After 2000 he switched to just electoral.

  • @dogpatch8266

    @dogpatch8266

    13 күн бұрын

    by vote is one thing , but when all was said and done gore would have won the electoral college.

  • @kingjoseph5901

    @kingjoseph5901

    13 күн бұрын

    The guy is a fuggin con

  • @i.ehrenfest349

    @i.ehrenfest349

    13 күн бұрын

    @@dogpatch8266 ah yes, you’re right

  • @WilliamOfficeSupply9832

    @WilliamOfficeSupply9832

    13 күн бұрын

    Madam President Hillary Clinton Won The Popular Votes by Landslides in 2008 and 2016.

  • @lisaahmari7199
    @lisaahmari719916 күн бұрын

    Just vote. Everyone PLEASE, DO NOT SIT THIS ONE OUT!!!

  • @clintbronson5

    @clintbronson5

    16 күн бұрын

    And no MAILING

  • @sacrebleu1371

    @sacrebleu1371

    16 күн бұрын

    ​​@@clintbronson5 What's your reason? Mine... I don't trust deJoy. He continues to make a mess of the post office. Our state is only vote by mail, in emergency we can get ballot at voting office, like when post office had to be addressed for not delivering some... we have no issues, except since deJoy hot involved, with decades of the process, and most of us return our ballots to the drop box instead of mailing them back.

  • @lavarwalker6999

    @lavarwalker6999

    16 күн бұрын

    Trump 2024

  • @detective0532

    @detective0532

    16 күн бұрын

    Trump 2024

  • @chesterholland5909

    @chesterholland5909

    16 күн бұрын

    If trump loses don't complain like punk ass jerks. It cause you didn't vote and it be your FAULT

  • @TheJoeschmoe777
    @TheJoeschmoe7777 күн бұрын

    I think an important thing to note about this election is how unique it is. This is the first time in 130 years where two US Presidents have run against each other, meaning we know how both candidates would govern. Lichtmans model has an impressive track record but as the 2000 election shows, it ain't perfect. This is an election i wouldnt be surprised for him to be wrong on.

  • @highvibrational

    @highvibrational

    6 күн бұрын

    Well he was right about the 2000 election. Gore should have won but Bush’s Brother was governor of Florida.

  • @TheJoeschmoe777

    @TheJoeschmoe777

    6 күн бұрын

    @@highvibrational There is no conclusive evidence that Gore would have won had the recount continued. Pretending that there is to make Lichtman look good is just dumb.

  • @highvibrational

    @highvibrational

    6 күн бұрын

    @@TheJoeschmoe777 It was the closest election in modern American history. If any election was ‘stolen’ it was the 2000 election. The Florida Secretary of state was Republican, the Supreme Court was controlled by Republicans, and the governor of the state was Jeb Bush. Gore lost because of voting machine errors and the fact that Florida had a time limit on recounts and failed to establish statewide uniform criteria for hand recounts.

  • @alpbridges3553

    @alpbridges3553

    3 күн бұрын

    @@TheJoeschmoe777 Before 2000 he only predicted who would win the popular vote, which before 2000 only twice had the candidate won without winning the popular vote. After 2000 this disparity has largely shifted as to democrats normally have the majority in popular vote, which is why after 2000 he only decided who would win electoral college.

  • @yotamtwersky8980
    @yotamtwersky898011 күн бұрын

    I think there is a flaw in the assumption that all keys should be weighted equally

  • @goideneaglet

    @goideneaglet

    10 күн бұрын

    does he weight them equally?

  • @jacksonhawkins2775

    @jacksonhawkins2775

    9 күн бұрын

    Yeah he does

  • @rockybalboa4593

    @rockybalboa4593

    9 күн бұрын

    oh suddenly you have a Ph.D. now and know better than him?

  • @TheJoeschmoe777

    @TheJoeschmoe777

    7 күн бұрын

    ​@@rockybalboa4593Having a degree doesn't mean you're always right, my guy.

  • @alpbridges3553

    @alpbridges3553

    3 күн бұрын

    While they are all weighted equally, he has said in the past that the 2nd key is the most important one which is that the incumbent party has no primary contest, which biden has. 23 out 28 when this key was true (which it is) they won

  • @Daniel_Capital
    @Daniel_Capital13 күн бұрын

    He says he was really correct about 2000 because of the popular vote. Yet doesn’t use the popular vote in other cases like 2016 to say he was wrong. Pure nonsense

  • @ivdg46e

    @ivdg46e

    13 күн бұрын

    Pure CNN

  • @David-bh1rn

    @David-bh1rn

    13 күн бұрын

    Apparently he says that after 2000 he changed his election model to reflect the electoral college not the popular vote but I don't buy it. Sounds like an excuse for getting 2000 wrong

  • @mandoy2080

    @mandoy2080

    13 күн бұрын

    He was initially only predicting the populatar vote, after 2000 he changed to electoral.

  • @stringtheoryx

    @stringtheoryx

    13 күн бұрын

    Exactly. And if anyone had to explain to him that popular vote has only indirect bearing (unless you get 100%), then he should not be making predictions.

  • @mandoy2080

    @mandoy2080

    13 күн бұрын

    @stringtheoryx after 2000 he switched to only electoral.

  • @Schlemiel-Team-Six
    @Schlemiel-Team-Six19 күн бұрын

    Polls are the people home in the middle of the day who answer the phone for someone to talk to. I mean, WTF even answers the phone from "unknown caller" in the 21st century?

  • @elmosweed4985

    @elmosweed4985

    19 күн бұрын

    100% agreed

  • @gastondeveaux3783

    @gastondeveaux3783

    19 күн бұрын

    I never thought of that. Excellent point. ❤

  • @gibbygoddamngibsonofficial

    @gibbygoddamngibsonofficial

    19 күн бұрын

    Exactly.

  • @chrismorgan9153

    @chrismorgan9153

    19 күн бұрын

    They only call landlines, too. I haven't gotten a call like that since I shut off my landline. So, they're calling retired Boomers because they're pretty much the only ones with landlines these days.

  • @zzzT.

    @zzzT.

    19 күн бұрын

    Trump has underperformed his polls all year because of this reason. 🤠

  • @GOODYGOODGOOD789
    @GOODYGOODGOOD7899 күн бұрын

    0:34 I'm willing to cut him a little slack on the 2000 election since that is the third closest Presidential election in U.S. history (only behind 1876 and 1824), and he did give Al Gore the maximum number of false keys that a presidential candidate could have while still losing the election, so it really isn't that big of a failure. 1:22 And remember Dewey beat Truman. Okay, that may be a false equivalency because polling now isn't the same as it was in 1948 but it's still something to note.

  • @Raymond-zz5pi
    @Raymond-zz5pi10 күн бұрын

    It's my understanding that polls are conducted via landline. Who uses landlines? Pretty much makes any poll completely irrelevant.

  • @nsr60ster85

    @nsr60ster85

    7 күн бұрын

    Who used landlines in 1936? Demographics skewed toward the wealthy. That's how the Literary Digest picked Alf Landon, and went out of business not long after.

  • @J-dizzle2021
    @J-dizzle202119 күн бұрын

    Polls don't mean anything these days, in my opinion. I agree 100% with this guy.

  • @glennmandigo6069

    @glennmandigo6069

    19 күн бұрын

    Yet he was was wrong in his prediction that Biden would win 2020

  • @HairHoFla

    @HairHoFla

    19 күн бұрын

    They can reflect trends ..thats about it

  • @rollntrollnrollnrawhide9143

    @rollntrollnrollnrawhide9143

    19 күн бұрын

    CNN Polls suck ass tbh.

  • @elmosweed4985

    @elmosweed4985

    19 күн бұрын

    I personally have never taken one.

  • @fibber2u

    @fibber2u

    19 күн бұрын

    Polls do have meaning and value and usually at least one gets it right. Which one? Well your guess is as good as mine; though ones where no human contact is present are more reliable if people are voting on something with a political stigma. I mean would you want to admit to a stranger that you support Trump? Candidates have to adapt in relation to polling activity to ignore would be to court failure for sure.

  • @HamptonGuitars
    @HamptonGuitars19 күн бұрын

    NOBODY participates in these polls. Do YOU answer calls you don't recognize? Me neither.

  • @jamesrowden303

    @jamesrowden303

    19 күн бұрын

    Yep. I avoid people with clipboards in the street too. Like the plague. People who answer polls are eager or just insane, IMHO.

  • @buckmurdock2500

    @buckmurdock2500

    19 күн бұрын

    Yes! and I tell them I'm voting for painfully slow FJB. Even though there is no way in hell I'd ever vote for him. And democrats think the race is close . . . lol.

  • @azul8811

    @azul8811

    18 күн бұрын

    @@buckmurdock2500And Republicans think that Trump won the last time…

  • @jessieball6195

    @jessieball6195

    18 күн бұрын

    @@azul8811 some of the really lunatic ones think he's still President.

  • @kittiepride7772

    @kittiepride7772

    18 күн бұрын

    @@azul8811 As an independent as much as Trump gets on my nerves if Biden wins we are in DEEP trouble, the 44.6% capital gains tax thats will be the highest in 100 years is enough to make large business owner pack up and move their company and their jobs to another country, people will not be able to leave their homes to their family members anymore, any money that is made in the stock market even on 401k investments the government will get half, in some states as high as 57%, people are so caught up in Trumps drama because the media talks about it 24/7 because they need you to vote for the party that is going to make them even wealthier which is Biden, it will make the rich even richer and the poor even poorer creating dependency on the government.

  • @GregorSamsa000
    @GregorSamsa0005 сағат бұрын

    "Tell me everything, pretend it's just you and me" My dirty mind: 😏

  • @FelixFederov-ud4lk
    @FelixFederov-ud4lk10 күн бұрын

    Everything is too expensive 😭

  • @DrDavidL

    @DrDavidL

    6 күн бұрын

    And prices are only going UP so start saving some money!

  • @iluvmoney6767

    @iluvmoney6767

    Күн бұрын

    Not for me.

  • @truthbsaid1600
    @truthbsaid160018 күн бұрын

    I agree with other commentators here: the only poll that matters is on November 5th. Period.

  • @themaverickfiles2020

    @themaverickfiles2020

    16 күн бұрын

    WRONG! Elections have been rigged since the beginning. We only have the illusion of choice. If elections were free and fair the senile pedo dotard puppet we have now wouldn't be in office.

  • @Economics70

    @Economics70

    16 күн бұрын

    Trump is going to win LMAO

  • @marciamariethompson6463

    @marciamariethompson6463

    16 күн бұрын

    ​@Economics70 😂😂I agree with you. Win the trip to orange county 😂😂

  • @davidzittel5725

    @davidzittel5725

    15 күн бұрын

    @@Economics70doubt it he doesn’t have the numbers in his favor at all and rfk jr is going to pull votes away from trump also

  • @craiglist187

    @craiglist187

    15 күн бұрын

    @@marciamariethompson6463 Trumps going to be president again, get your blue hair dye ready and a fresh dose of hormone blockers

  • @MrMuharbi
    @MrMuharbi19 күн бұрын

    Im from Europe, so i might not fully understand, but the fact trump has so many votere baffles me..

  • @fenderblue9485

    @fenderblue9485

    19 күн бұрын

    Don't believe the polls, believe the election results.

  • @GenghisWanghis

    @GenghisWanghis

    19 күн бұрын

    There's a lot of stupid people in the US, three men alone have been in the news lately for taking ammunition to foreign countries saying they "forgot" and are getting detained by those foreign authorities

  • @niemi5858

    @niemi5858

    19 күн бұрын

    Old Canadian guy here. I can't understand it either.

  • @pignonMZ6

    @pignonMZ6

    19 күн бұрын

    @@fenderblue9485 That's the thing, Trump won the presidency once, which is still a complete mystery to many of us in the EU, and the fact that so many of you guys are planning to vote on a twice impeached, draft dodger, cheater, porn star fucker and let's be honest, coup plotter is truly incredible.

  • @user-vo2cw5yu9w

    @user-vo2cw5yu9w

    19 күн бұрын

    @@niemi5858 American... and I don't fully understand it. Republican propaganda is strong and American conservatives have soft skulls.

  • @aaroneeee
    @aaroneeee13 күн бұрын

    Anyone who doesn’t have a landline doesn’t get polled.

  • @dandeliondreamer3365
    @dandeliondreamer33655 күн бұрын

    Seems like a smart guy. I like how he’s just sticking to facts…I would imagine he’s got a better chance of an accurate prediction than everyone else trying to guess how people feel about the candidates.

  • @marlinweekley51
    @marlinweekley5118 күн бұрын

    If we should have learned anything from the polls the last many years is that the polls are often very wrong.

  • @SafetySpooon

    @SafetySpooon

    15 күн бұрын

    THANK YOU!

  • @fultonbenjamin9022

    @fultonbenjamin9022

    15 күн бұрын

    The problem is, were Trump is concerned, the polls usually run 2 or 3 points low! That's scary!

  • @KentVigilante

    @KentVigilante

    15 күн бұрын

    @@fultonbenjamin9022 He was never ahead in the polls in 2016 or 2020 so that's all you need and it's leftwing news doing the polls so they're actively looking for Biden supporters, so it might be more like 65% for Trump

  • @marlinweekley51

    @marlinweekley51

    13 күн бұрын

    @@andrewpeters5145 for sure, but like I said often,not always. Also it’s important to know who’s doing the polling and reporting on it and why. Very often the “news” media that caters to a given demographic designs and conducts polls that are basically an echo chamber if you will that provide the “news” they want. Mom used to say, “liars figure and figures lie”🤪

  • @StevefrankReinhold
    @StevefrankReinhold19 күн бұрын

    Reagan said 3 strikes and your out. Yet Trump has 91. WTF??

  • @davidjones6389

    @davidjones6389

    19 күн бұрын

    This GOP's 2 votes for Trump were double taps to the Reagan legacy.

  • @dopechef228

    @dopechef228

    19 күн бұрын

    Trying everything to not elected trump ..😂😂.. while the world is in inflation ,wars and illegal immigrants, any day a terrorist attack can happen...that biden is overseeing 😂😂.. come to reality trump is the best hope for america to run good

  • @Inferno45

    @Inferno45

    19 күн бұрын

    Keep coping harder liberal. Biden has committed more crimes and admitted he was corput on camera and he hasn’t been touched. Its all a planned game.

  • @AllForDemocracy

    @AllForDemocracy

    19 күн бұрын

    He said "3 strikes and you're out".

  • @BizarreIoveTriangle

    @BizarreIoveTriangle

    19 күн бұрын

    only 88 currently, to be fair, thanks to a horny DA in Georgia but yes you have the right idea. The GOP is dead, it's the MAGA party at least for now

  • @HandyMattCreations
    @HandyMattCreations12 күн бұрын

    You can't say a poll sample size from every state doesn't matter as long as it's over the minimum threshold. It's statistically improbable to be incorrect from a reliable source.

  • @BakingAndGhibli
    @BakingAndGhibliКүн бұрын

    This is exactly the kind of interaction where my friends would turn to me and go “do you realize she was hitting on you?”

  • @7n154
    @7n15418 күн бұрын

    Polls don't mean anything. Most responsible voters don't participate in them.

  • @suziecue3027

    @suziecue3027

    17 күн бұрын

    True.i don't even know where the polls are that they are voting for...

  • @7n154

    @7n154

    17 күн бұрын

    @@suziecue3027 Also I don't trust polls because just like there are troll farms meant to influence social media, there are troll farms designed to influence polling data as well. Actual Elections are the only REAL polling that counts.

  • @user-hj4wr6ec3r

    @user-hj4wr6ec3r

    17 күн бұрын

    Actually they do…you only need a small sample the get an idea of how trends are going and the mood of the people

  • @7n154

    @7n154

    17 күн бұрын

    @@user-hj4wr6ec3r But since 2016, polls have become big busine$$ and just another way to spread disinformation. If there are troll farms wreaking havoc on social media, what makes you think troll farms aren't also corrupting poll data?! And even without trolls, polling data is way to easy to bend to a narrative. I.E.: '75% of voters who are in the top 2% of early voting and rank 5% of the northeast region of so and so . .' - which is why many poll results have very fine print at the bottom of their published data. And we all know what fine print means.

  • @7n154

    @7n154

    17 күн бұрын

    @@user-hj4wr6ec3r I don't debate with troll farm accounts.

  • @paigemalloy4276
    @paigemalloy427615 күн бұрын

    Dude, I stopped trusting polls after 2016

  • @Knightransport

    @Knightransport

    14 күн бұрын

    its all a fucking sham!!

  • @bellaluv1070

    @bellaluv1070

    13 күн бұрын

    Even more after 2020.. I think the 45 million blue fakes they found last week gives O'Biden 50%? 😂 Choking on my tea..😂

  • @claudeheinrich3613

    @claudeheinrich3613

    13 күн бұрын

    why?

  • @valyrias1625

    @valyrias1625

    13 күн бұрын

    ​@@claudeheinrich3613 probably because Hillary was winning big according to the polls

  • @seanclaudevandamnit

    @seanclaudevandamnit

    13 күн бұрын

    ​@@claudeheinrich3613The answer to your question is one minute and twenty seconds into the video

  • @StephenMargaret-8080
    @StephenMargaret-80808 күн бұрын

    From $37K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.

  • @RichardMartins-4260

    @RichardMartins-4260

    8 күн бұрын

    I would really love to know how much work you did put in to get to this stage

  • @RuthMartin-xl5vq

    @RuthMartin-xl5vq

    8 күн бұрын

    With the help of Ms Angela, I bought a new House and a car her in State and also paid for my son's surgery (Kelvin) all Glory to God almighty.

  • @JackMelissa

    @JackMelissa

    8 күн бұрын

    I'm supprised that this name is being mention here, I stumbled across one of her client testimony on CNBC just last week​@@RuthMartin-xl5vq

  • @ValentineScott-pf5gg

    @ValentineScott-pf5gg

    8 күн бұрын

    Yee! She works with people all over the world and she's the best you can ever come across with.​@@JackMelissa

  • @RoseLittle-jn1gq

    @RoseLittle-jn1gq

    8 күн бұрын

    The fact that I got to learn and earn from her, Ms Angela program is everything to me, Think about it, it's a win-win for both ways.

  • @deekay5594
    @deekay55947 күн бұрын

    Professor Lichtman, I HOPE you are right.

  • @Brownie-tg3nu

    @Brownie-tg3nu

    6 күн бұрын

    Joe Biden is going to get beat like a drum, you are not wrong to be worried.

  • @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    5 күн бұрын

  • @JohnSmith-ki2hl

    @JohnSmith-ki2hl

    Күн бұрын

    No one believes this

  • @simonsidorov8315

    @simonsidorov8315

    11 сағат бұрын

    The rest of the world will be rather sorry for USA if a man with one foot in the grave continues as the president. Then again, it also will be convenient cuz who or what will be to blame for the third world war? Dementia?

  • @LBM01028

    @LBM01028

    10 сағат бұрын

    He’s wrong and he’s coping. First of all Biden’s already got more than 6 keys easily. Second his keys have not been very successful in prediction and have been criticized quite well. Lastly in 2020 all the polls said Biden would win and he did.

  • @agomauvietobore8280
    @agomauvietobore828019 күн бұрын

    This the only guy I have been waiting for to give me the real deal. Forget the polls.

  • @rangergaming8316

    @rangergaming8316

    19 күн бұрын

    Just watch his weekly livestreams on his KZread channel. He talks at length about different topics and it's not always with people like on here asking him why Biden is losing.

  • @Italy.com33

    @Italy.com33

    18 күн бұрын

    He’s not god Trump will win

  • @TheRealTommyR

    @TheRealTommyR

    17 күн бұрын

    100% me too. I remember when he said that Trump would win in 2016, when no one else thought that he would (I actually hoped he was wrong that year lol). I remember when he said that Biden would win in 2020.

  • @ndo533

    @ndo533

    15 күн бұрын

    ​@@TheRealTommyRhas he predicted this year yet

  • @TheRealTommyR

    @TheRealTommyR

    15 күн бұрын

    @@ndo533 He has not officially predicted this year. He said that he will provide his official prediction in August. (His official predictions always occur in the fall before the election when there is enough final information/results). He did say that so far things are looking in favor of Biden, but that could change between now and then.

  • @xykeem4805
    @xykeem480519 күн бұрын

    I would rather have an old but mentally stable president who gets the job done than an old immature narcissistic conman & cult leader who is facing criminal charges and wants dictatorship

  • @georgedixon9863

    @georgedixon9863

    19 күн бұрын

    Biden is literally using our justice system to "go after" his political opponent

  • @RaphaelVargens

    @RaphaelVargens

    19 күн бұрын

    what job done? record high inflation, 3 wars outside started, social unrest, people being sent to prison for protesting, high grocery prices, weak president?

  • @davidsheriff9274

    @davidsheriff9274

    19 күн бұрын

    RIGHT ON !

  • @floridaman111

    @floridaman111

    19 күн бұрын

    You forgot to add that Trump is a rapist

  • @MusiciansWithVision

    @MusiciansWithVision

    19 күн бұрын

    Mentally stable??? Are all MASS child killers mentally stable, in your opinion???

  • @allanfranklin9615
    @allanfranklin96159 күн бұрын

    So he just skipped over short and long term economy, two keys on his own list, at which Biden has failed miserably, along with foreign policy, social unrest (crime), sounds more like Trump will win, using this criteria.

  • @answersforelders5570
    @answersforelders55704 күн бұрын

    I took Allan Lichtman's class at American University. Amazing Professor brilliant.

  • @Authenticwings
    @Authenticwings17 күн бұрын

    Get registered, prepare to vote if you need help, transportation, information of location!!! Don’t be caught last minute thinking “oh well, somebody else will vote for me”!!! When you look at the significant numbers of people in America who are not registered to vote…you realize why we are in the mess we are in!!! Just do it!!!

  • @nielwilliams4687

    @nielwilliams4687

    15 күн бұрын

    Vote Trump.

  • @MrPatrickworthington

    @MrPatrickworthington

    15 күн бұрын

    @@nielwilliams4687 Yes, vote for a criminal!

  • @poopoomangione

    @poopoomangione

    15 күн бұрын

    @@MrPatrickworthingtoncriminals are in prison. Trump isn’t. So by definition he’s not a criminal.

  • @jamesthefirst8790

    @jamesthefirst8790

    14 күн бұрын

    @@MrPatrickworthington ... the only criminal is the one that took millions in bribes from the Chinese Communist Party... from Ukraine and God knows from how many Big Corporations... He is also sponsored the biggest invasion of people without checking their background America has ever endured and is trying, but will not have any success, to transform America in a Banana Republic weaponizing the Justice Department to rig an election... It doesn't matter... President Trump will win in a LANDSLIDE... America Will Be Great Again... in spite the Haters of America now fraudulently in power... TRUMP 2024!!!

  • @mastergundam123

    @mastergundam123

    14 күн бұрын

    yes, will vote for trump because the economy is a mess, inflation is destroying families, war all over the country financed by the moron who is president right now, and men can be in women bathrooms. Biden and the democratic party are evil.

  • @imirim
    @imirim19 күн бұрын

    The Social Unrest key should not turn because the protests are small relative to the 350 million people who live in the country. They seem bigger than they are because of our wonderful media (sarcasm intended).

  • @owenbowen1090

    @owenbowen1090

    19 күн бұрын

    I heard they turned the sprinklers on the campers. Good way to get rid of them.

  • @ThatOpalGuy

    @ThatOpalGuy

    19 күн бұрын

    ​@@owenbowen1090deplorable

  • @Black_Caucus

    @Black_Caucus

    19 күн бұрын

    The protests aren't as large now as they were in 2020, but if you think these are 'small' you are not paying attention, but also underestimating the effect it may have on the election. Especially given the fact they are like a week only and completely spontaneous, but they are only getting bigger, not smaller. And with the police forces sending in riot gear, literal military equipment, and even snipers to sit on rooftops, I would be willing to guess they are only going to get bigger as time passes. That isn't to say that these will still be happening in November 2024, but the idea these are small is just stupid. That also doesn't even get into what the Democratic convention in Chicago is going to look like this summer, assuming that Biden's policy of aiding and abetting Israel with their ethnic cleansing of Palestine is still occurring. Nobody knows what exactly will happen, but the Social Unrest key should absolutely 100% turn against him and if you think otherwise you are living in a bubble and deluding yourself of what people in the real world actually think about this current policy. Don't aid in handing the election to Trump by underestimating how bad Biden's policy is on this issue... all Trump has to do is lie to the public, fake-position himself to the left of Biden, and say that 'he will bring peace' and he probably steals just enough votes to win some swing states. This issue is costing Biden the election and EVERY single piece of polling data says it is. Even if you think the opinion polls are 'fake' or are a dozen points off, which has literally never happened before in the history of polling and is an Alex Jones level conspiracy theory- even if the polls are off by a dozen points Biden is still UNDERWATER to the point where he may not even win the popular vote like he did in 2020.

  • @meoff7602

    @meoff7602

    19 күн бұрын

    ​@@Black_CaucusLoL, people protesting isn't unrest. The summer of love under the trump administration during Co-Vid was social unrest. What we have now is another occupy Wall Street. That didn't hurt Obama one bit.

  • @carollund8251

    @carollund8251

    19 күн бұрын

    ​@@Black_CaucusBut what I don't get is, everyone knows perfectly well that Trump is pro Israel and anti Muslim. They must know that under Trump it would be much much much worse for Gaza. And if he lied about it, if he criticized Israel in the least he would lose the Evangelicals, who have this weird thing about Israel and Jesus' coming or something ( the Rapture I think they call it). So it just doesn't make sense to me that anyone would vote for Trump thinking he would help Gaza.

  • @yakymua
    @yakymua12 күн бұрын

    When you pasture beef on land that is unable to produce decent grain yields but can host grass (but not taken from forests) cattle farming has minimal net impact. Unfortunately this is rare nowadays

  • @ksmithNC22
    @ksmithNC2211 күн бұрын

    Is CHEATING a bullet point to this GEEKS prediction?

  • @jaye8872
    @jaye887219 күн бұрын

    He never promotes his podcast. He is fantastic!

  • @rangergaming8316

    @rangergaming8316

    19 күн бұрын

    I watch him and Sam every week. He's brilliant and I love how he just says to ignore polls because I agree that the polls seem very wrong.

  • @jvallas

    @jvallas

    18 күн бұрын

    What's the podcast (apologies if it was mentioned in the clip &I tuned it out)?

  • @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    5 күн бұрын

    THANKS JAYE!

  • @davidguelette7036
    @davidguelette703619 күн бұрын

    Stop and think about how many calls you receive and don't answer. Polling accuracy is at an all time low.

  • @felicial7628

    @felicial7628

    18 күн бұрын

    The polls predicted Hillary would win. They said it so much that it almost sounded like a done deal. Then, people got turned off from them for a while... surprised that they are back.

  • @stephensuddick1896
    @stephensuddick1896Күн бұрын

    No one should take the predictive reliability of political polls seriously.

  • @mc732611
    @mc73261111 күн бұрын

    Has anyone ever been invited or asked to take part in any of these polls? Please if you ever have, reply and tell us how/where 😭

  • @13bcoffee
    @13bcoffee17 күн бұрын

    He did predict that Trump would lose back in 2020 mostly due to social unrest and scandal ...

  • @hebronharvester1487

    @hebronharvester1487

    17 күн бұрын

    How can we credit him for 2016 when he back-talked 2000 and claimed he won because of popular vote? You can't have it both ways!

  • @jacobstravail

    @jacobstravail

    17 күн бұрын

    ​@@hebronharvester1487because you didn't listen to what he said in detail about 2000.sit down Trumper

  • @becks3709

    @becks3709

    17 күн бұрын

    @@hebronharvester1487huh? He predicted Trump would win in 2016!

  • @hebronharvester1487

    @hebronharvester1487

    17 күн бұрын

    @becks3709 yes, but Trump won the electoral vote. He predicted Gore would win in 2000 based on popular vote, so there isn't consistency. Can't have it one way and then a different way the next time. Whichever one you give him, he was wrong on the other.

  • @hebronharvester1487

    @hebronharvester1487

    17 күн бұрын

    @jacobstravail I'm actually never said I was a Trumper, yet you go accusing me of that just because I dissent. 2000, he claimed it was a popular vote and then walked back his claim... he was wrong in 2000, which means 2016 is arguably wrong, one or the other... you can't have it both ways. That being said, he had it right every other time. But he hasn't been 100% correct. Has nothing to do with Trump. My overall point is I would not just trust him that Biden will win. You still gotta go out and vote. There's gonna be a time he will be wrong.

  • @AllanLichtmanYouTube
    @AllanLichtmanYouTube19 күн бұрын

    Thanks for having me!

  • @richardk6196

    @richardk6196

    16 күн бұрын

    Initially, I thought this comment wasn't truly from you, but after going to the associated channel, I believe it's you. Sir, it seems you are more often right and perhaps even never wrong. I hope your streak doesn't stop now. The consequences could be horrific.

  • @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    16 күн бұрын

    @@richardk6196 it's me!

  • @theLegendarySpaceCaptain

    @theLegendarySpaceCaptain

    15 күн бұрын

    ​@@AllanLichtmanKZread I cant understand why anyone would vote for Biden. Things are bad in America and around the world, I'm still angry about us getting defeated in Afghanistan.

  • @ninjagamer1359

    @ninjagamer1359

    12 күн бұрын

    @@richardk6196The consequences of Joe getting another 4 years to plunge the world even further into w4r and r3cession are the ones we should be afraid of. I genuinely don’t think our country would survive it.

  • @UV_Lightning

    @UV_Lightning

    8 күн бұрын

    @@theLegendarySpaceCaptainTrump had the same plan, it was never going to be easy to leave after 20 years.

  • @grandlaphi
    @grandlaphi13 күн бұрын

    Thank you sir.

  • @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    5 күн бұрын

  • @tiffanyjames7150
    @tiffanyjames715011 күн бұрын

    Did he predict bind would be zenile during his first term?

  • @Ruribitz
    @Ruribitz15 күн бұрын

    I believe it was the philosopher Cliff Clavin (from TV show Cheers) who said, "If you go back in history and take every President, you'll find that the numerical value in each of their names, was equally divisble into the year in which they were elected. By my calculations, our next President has to be named... Yelnik McWawa".

  • @MoShaafici

    @MoShaafici

    13 күн бұрын

    Someone from Wakanda State

  • @francisfernandes3749
    @francisfernandes374919 күн бұрын

    Don't make America stupid again...

  • @A-rl4or

    @A-rl4or

    18 күн бұрын

    Agree that’s why you shouldn’t vote for Biden the dumbest president ever

  • @alholds

    @alholds

    18 күн бұрын

    You must love high inflation, wars and open borders

  • @JerryJunior26

    @JerryJunior26

    18 күн бұрын

    America is already stupid

  • @SocialismSucks

    @SocialismSucks

    17 күн бұрын

    Imagine voting to destroy America, FJB🖕🏿

  • @skizzil

    @skizzil

    17 күн бұрын

    America never stopped being stupid. Point in case - Your comment.

  • @douglashagan65
    @douglashagan6512 күн бұрын

    The only thing I'm afraid of is that people emotionally play based on emotion a lot of times

  • @athena3865

    @athena3865

    10 күн бұрын

    That would be great, because people are quite emotional about their bank account.

  • @UV_Lightning

    @UV_Lightning

    7 күн бұрын

    @@athena3865Maybe they’ll think back to 4 years ago when they were broke and out of job…

  • @5thepikmin118
    @5thepikmin11812 күн бұрын

    0:36 anybody else notice they put Reagan as a DEMOCRAT?

  • @Pamzollman

    @Pamzollman

    5 күн бұрын

    Dems wish they had someone as great as Reagan!

  • @panzerprussia606

    @panzerprussia606

    2 күн бұрын

    @@Pamzollmanyou do realize reagan was a democrat at one point

  • @BichaeldeAngelo

    @BichaeldeAngelo

    Күн бұрын

    ⁠@@panzerprussia606he certainly wasn’t running as a Dem in 1984

  • @miguelmarquez5636
    @miguelmarquez563619 күн бұрын

    81 years of age vs 81 felonies

  • @mariomann9906

    @mariomann9906

    19 күн бұрын

    Felonies all day

  • @JZsBFF

    @JZsBFF

    19 күн бұрын

    One felony a day keeps jail away... when you're part of the elite.

  • @kebo57

    @kebo57

    19 күн бұрын

    and ZERO convictions.

  • @tonypowder3506

    @tonypowder3506

    19 күн бұрын

    I'm voting trump

  • @dennisspurgeon4187

    @dennisspurgeon4187

    19 күн бұрын

    Since Jan 6, 2021 I can’t see that DJT has added to his support in a general election! It’s actually the reverse.

  • @liamfinch4129
    @liamfinch412919 күн бұрын

    Biden will win - providing WE ALL VOTE FOR HIM!

  • @epic103

    @epic103

    19 күн бұрын

    Why would you want to?

  • @s1lm4r1l6

    @s1lm4r1l6

    19 күн бұрын

    @@epic103 Because the alternative is much worse. Project 2025 is literally Fascism and Totalitarianism.

  • @ThatOpalGuy

    @ThatOpalGuy

    19 күн бұрын

    ​@@epic103lol😂😅

  • @strayspark1967

    @strayspark1967

    19 күн бұрын

    going to be a lot of dead people voting for him

  • @kristihall174

    @kristihall174

    19 күн бұрын

    My family and I are voting Trump

  • @ATCRyderX
    @ATCRyderX12 күн бұрын

    Hey my Dad's Neighbor's Cousin's buddy Rick had Trump walk right by him on 5th Ave in 1973 & Trump didn't even introduce himself or anything. Rick was pissed. Would you like his contact details, CNN?

  • @JoshuaDGeis

    @JoshuaDGeis

    10 күн бұрын

    They would take that interview in a heartbeat if they saw this.

  • @ChineseRatfaceCHANG

    @ChineseRatfaceCHANG

    10 күн бұрын

    🤣🫵

  • @bahmanabdollahi9690
    @bahmanabdollahi96909 күн бұрын

    Foreign military success or failure should be in one category.

  • @pandoraalberts5267
    @pandoraalberts526719 күн бұрын

    He could have included "nausea index".

  • @carolebillue357
    @carolebillue35714 күн бұрын

    I’ll DEFINITELY be saving this one, making sure to remind myself this was posted May, 1, 2024.

  • @phrogme2450

    @phrogme2450

    10 күн бұрын

    When Biden trounces Trump AGAIN maybe Trump will finally get it. “YOU’RE FIRED!!!”

  • @jakr430

    @jakr430

    10 күн бұрын

    @@phrogme2450 Lol it’s funny how confident you are in your statement.

  • @gokuswanson2037

    @gokuswanson2037

    8 күн бұрын

    ​@phrogme2450 Trump will win or America will lose. It's that simple

  • @SCOTSMAN.

    @SCOTSMAN.

    8 күн бұрын

    If Biden wins your country is fucked. Get off his payroll and help your country. Just admit trump is the answer and the left couldn't run a bath.​@@phrogme2450

  • @ApoBeef

    @ApoBeef

    4 күн бұрын

    @@jakr430 He's in on the steal

  • @guayabito6946
    @guayabito694622 сағат бұрын

    Of course he is going to say that, he is on CNN.

  • @The_Black_Falchion
    @The_Black_Falchion13 күн бұрын

    Someone can be right all day, but the first time they’re ever wrong is when they’re paid to be.

  • @MadMikeSportsYT
    @MadMikeSportsYT19 күн бұрын

    This is why I like Professor Lichtman...gets right to the point, doesn't spoil anything...he's a distinguished professor and you normally trust people like him.

  • @CharlieNicolas-ws9ev

    @CharlieNicolas-ws9ev

    17 күн бұрын

    You trust him, because he supports your narrative. If it is the opposite, then he might be the most untrusworthy professor for you.

  • @hebronharvester1487

    @hebronharvester1487

    17 күн бұрын

    He argues he was right in 2000 because of popular vote, but wouldn't that make him wrong in 2016? This guy is knowledgeable but I don't know these "keys" apply every election... this feels different today.

  • @samenders1074

    @samenders1074

    17 күн бұрын

    @@hebronharvester1487 With how ridiculously close the 2000 election was (Gore lost because of a handful of votes in a state where his opponent's brother was the governor), I wouldn't hold it against him. And he did predict a Trump victory in 2016.

  • @hebronharvester1487

    @hebronharvester1487

    17 күн бұрын

    @samenders1074 he's a smart guy, don't get me wrong. I just can't give him credit for 2000. I also think that the keys in 2024 are going to be radically different than any other election. He also hasn't even considered the 3rd party key as RFK Jr. Is making noise... the economy was liked by many under Trump... hard to see every key applying in this election.

  • @hebronharvester1487

    @hebronharvester1487

    17 күн бұрын

    @samenders1074 by the way, I'm not being one-sided here. I'm just saying he correctly predicted 2016 with the same fault he disregarded in 2000. That's not a reliable outcome. He's been right every other time but this election I feel is different

  • @JoeL-zb1yd
    @JoeL-zb1yd19 күн бұрын

    The fact that it's even close is mind boggling. It's sickening. Vote Blue.

  • @MightySmith85

    @MightySmith85

    19 күн бұрын

    😂😂😂

  • @mikemoffin6020

    @mikemoffin6020

    19 күн бұрын

    These polls are lies do not believe them.

  • @RH-cv1rg

    @RH-cv1rg

    19 күн бұрын

    Maybe the glasses in which you view the world are a bit cloudy. Clean them and you might see some facts and fairness.

  • @JoeL-zb1yd

    @JoeL-zb1yd

    19 күн бұрын

    @@RH-cv1rg Maga Republicans run from facts the way roaches run from light and bug spray.

  • @Kodakcompactdisc

    @Kodakcompactdisc

    19 күн бұрын

    It’s baffling how anybody besides the mentally unwell would vote for donald.

  • @user-wo6gv7st5q
    @user-wo6gv7st5q12 күн бұрын

    How come the trump approval rating in November 2020 was 32% now 49%. Something is very fishy about it.

  • @jgordon9022

    @jgordon9022

    12 күн бұрын

    Biden fuct up big time on both Ukraine and Gaza conflicts

  • @androidapp3807

    @androidapp3807

    12 күн бұрын

    Opinions have changed since then, it's been 4 years you can't expect it to be the same.

  • @reggiebadunkadunk
    @reggiebadunkadunk4 күн бұрын

    What a fun, lively and engaging conversation between these two mediators. Thanks CNN.

  • @adamfuller3296
    @adamfuller329615 күн бұрын

    He says his method only predicts the popular vote and that’s why he got 2000 wrong, but he predicted Trump in 2016 but he lost the popular vote. So either way it’s a flawed system.

  • @ChrisSmith-tl5jl

    @ChrisSmith-tl5jl

    14 күн бұрын

    Except Trump didn't lose the popular vote when you eliminate all the ballot stuffing and unconfirmed suitcases of votes for Biden that suddenly appeared at 3 in the morning.

  • @patriotmama

    @patriotmama

    14 күн бұрын

    But he is a "professor" so we are supposed to believe everything he says. LOL LOL. Not!

  • @wimja8882

    @wimja8882

    14 күн бұрын

    The reason for this discrepancy is that he changed his style of prediction. Gore lost in 2000 due to the electoral college. Lichtman decided to start calling the winner of the electoral college, not just the winner of the popular vote.

  • @StephenKershaw1

    @StephenKershaw1

    14 күн бұрын

    He 100% accurately predicted 2000, Gore won both electoral and popular at end of the day, the unlawful business in Florida was later found out to be that Gore won the state

  • @ThePurplePassage

    @ThePurplePassage

    14 күн бұрын

    @@patriotmama his credentials are his track-record - 9 correct predictions out of 10 is good

  • @redghost3170
    @redghost317013 күн бұрын

    🤣 hilarious. One of the candidates can’t even find the stage exit. Says a lot about the American voter.

  • @UV_Lightning

    @UV_Lightning

    7 күн бұрын

    Yep trump is a babbling old fool.

  • @909lena5
    @909lena52 күн бұрын

    @lisaahmari7199 " Just vote. Everyone PLEASE, DO NOT SIT THIS ONE OUT!!! "---Every time it's the same line, the same croooks, same ole lies, worse. Sick of this whole process.

  • @peopleofonefire9643
    @peopleofonefire964316 күн бұрын

    It is now known that Al Gore won in Florida and thus had more electoral points in addition to the popular vote, but this recount was after the fact by a non-governmental organization. If you recall, the Republican Supreme Court blocked an official recount in Florida in December 2000, whereas it permitted THREE recounts in Georgia after the 2020 election.

  • @garytorresani8846

    @garytorresani8846

    15 күн бұрын

    I don’t remember Gore jumping up and down claiming the election was stolen from him (which it was by Jeb Bush). Gracefully, he allowed the transition of power to occur.

  • @kevindepew8193

    @kevindepew8193

    15 күн бұрын

    That is an outright lie. It is NOT known. The actual recount that was in progress which the Supreme Court blocked would have given Bush the win in 3 of the 4 standards for what constitutes a vote for President, including the standard that was most widely used by States with defined standards. So even if the recount had finished, Bush wins. This count was only looking at Ballots that didn't have a vote for President. A later study that included Under Votes (no vote for President) and Over Votes (votes for more than one Presidential candidate) showed that Gore would have won by two of the considered standards and Bush would have won by two of the considered standards, including the most widely used standard. There was one later study that looked at statewide uncounted votes that would give Gore a slight lead if they looked at Under votes (no vote for President) and Over Votes (votes for more than 1 Presidential Candidate). Gore NEVER requested looking at ballots that had more than one vote for President. It was never ordered by the Florida Supreme Court. It was never seriously under consideration. The only thing considered were ballots without a vote for President to determine if there was an intention to vote for President. When those statewide ballots were looked at Bush still won (but by lower than the official margin). Only when you looked at Ballots where people voted for more than one candidate did that one study determine Gore would have won. To say it is "known" that Al Gore won Florida is either an outright lie or you are incredibly stupid.

  • @texx101

    @texx101

    15 күн бұрын

    Actually after all of the 2000 Florida votes were thoroughly counted months after the election, Bush had more votes than Gore.

  • @criszadrozny4015

    @criszadrozny4015

    14 күн бұрын

    Wow....

  • @om-nj2hw

    @om-nj2hw

    14 күн бұрын

    So absolutely true, and tragic! There really needs to be a true documentary about this. Sad that this is being forgotten and overlooked. TrumpLoses by thousands in different states and people still think it was rigged......how far we have fallen as nation.

  • @rodneyshuffler5810
    @rodneyshuffler581013 күн бұрын

    What a joke, the one he got wrong he got right..... No, the one he got wrong he got wrong.

  • @hopeforcleanwater
    @hopeforcleanwaterКүн бұрын

    I hope he’s right!!

  • @TBrl8
    @TBrl819 күн бұрын

    Was waiting for this dude, the key master, to pop up on CNN.

  • @1965Grit

    @1965Grit

    16 күн бұрын

    If he was predicting Trump, CNN wouldn't have him on!!

  • @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    5 күн бұрын

  • @CindyP.
    @CindyP.19 күн бұрын

    My family has never been polled we have 5 Biden voters. 🤔 I never believed polls. He’s no Franklin Roosevelt but he will go down as one of the greatest presidents in history. The next four years will bring amazing change mark my word. Check any psychic. 💙💙

  • @vintagepyro3692

    @vintagepyro3692

    19 күн бұрын

    Lots of political terrorist traitors in your family. Shame!!!!!

  • @chucksgrace3225

    @chucksgrace3225

    19 күн бұрын

    🤢🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮

  • @elmosweed4985

    @elmosweed4985

    19 күн бұрын

    I and not a single friend or family has ever been polled. None of us answer unknown callers however.

  • @dude6519

    @dude6519

    19 күн бұрын

    Do you own hotels occupied by illegals pay by the government?

  • @kristihall174

    @kristihall174

    19 күн бұрын

    My family and I are voting Trump 2024.

  • @memyselfeyetallent7149
    @memyselfeyetallent7149Сағат бұрын

    How do we know he has successfully picked past president? Who checks him?

  • @thatguy-sp6fo
    @thatguy-sp6fo13 күн бұрын

    I like how he's just not gonna mention either of the economy keys 👀

  • @albertinsinger7443
    @albertinsinger744314 күн бұрын

    Someone said: “it’s the economy stupid”

  • @Alexadria205

    @Alexadria205

    13 күн бұрын

    Specifically, unemployment.

  • @stringtheoryx

    @stringtheoryx

    12 күн бұрын

    @@Alexadria205 True. The economy is way better than 4 years ago. Unemployment is at record lows. The public perception of those is a different story. Many say that they miss the economy of Trump, but in reality, the economy 4 years ago was a disaster. And due to Trump's mishandling of Covid, people were desperate to find things as basic as toilet paper. I've spoken to some nice, well-intentioned people who thought that many of Biden's great achievements were actually Trump. They get their news from Tic-Toc and KZread. Hard to combat that.

  • @RegebroRepairs

    @RegebroRepairs

    12 күн бұрын

    One big issue here is that the economy, both long term and short term, is strong. But people seem to think it isn't. Currently six of his points are false, giving Trump a win. If RFK drops out, it's five, giving Biden a win. But if we factor in that people seem to believe that the economy sucks, then currently eight points are false, giving Biden zero chance.

  • @albertinsinger7443

    @albertinsinger7443

    12 күн бұрын

    @@RegebroRepairs It’s the debt that is the problem 35T$. Biden wants 7T$ budget for 2025 from 4T$, plus’s raising capital gains taxes from 15% to 46.5%. Finance the debt will take 1.5T$ Add everything together US goes into recession maybe depression.

  • @goodlandchugz

    @goodlandchugz

    12 күн бұрын

    @@RegebroRepairs claiming that the economy is doing well or bad is moot without defining your indicators of economic health. In traditional market based measures of economic success we are successful while when looking at individual economic conditions the reality becomes far more grey.

  • @nanak5739
    @nanak573919 күн бұрын

    Oh boy I so hope you are right Prof.

  • @Jersey4321

    @Jersey4321

    17 күн бұрын

    You won't know America if he becomes president again I hope he is WRONG! Okay, you think everything is high now ha you haven't seen high. And if America wants to vote for this old man that falls and can't read a teleprompter fine but I'm not sinking with this ship✈️

  • @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    @AllanLichtmanYouTube

    5 күн бұрын

  • @jacki3370
    @jacki337013 күн бұрын

    #rfk jr... not voting for either of these 🤡🤡🤡🤡

  • @Askfornate
    @Askfornate8 күн бұрын

    CANDACE OWENS ON CNN!?!?!?!!?! LORD HAVE MERCY.

  • @Kurzeyn1218
    @Kurzeyn121819 күн бұрын

    They've got to make it look really close 😂

  • @rangergaming8316

    @rangergaming8316

    19 күн бұрын

    Yeah, it won't be close when Trump loses in November lol

  • @solveeasy2056

    @solveeasy2056

    19 күн бұрын

    Yes the media makes a lot of money from this

  • @youlandaJF1145

    @youlandaJF1145

    18 күн бұрын

    Oh course they do. If it looked like a landslide, their voters would stay home thinking it doesn’t matter their candidate has got it already. They keep saying Trump is leading in the polls and it will send Biden supporters out in droves because if they don’t vote he will lose.

  • @e4t662
    @e4t66219 күн бұрын

    I took a class in college called Statistics. Predicting literally any outcome can be achieved through a mathematical equation. I failed miserably.

  • @lawrencetalbot8346

    @lawrencetalbot8346

    19 күн бұрын

    I took statistics in college and in my graduate program. Got an A both times. Not hard if you pay attention

  • @MediocreAverage

    @MediocreAverage

    19 күн бұрын

    One of your mistakes is probably thinking that predictions are binary. Statistics is sometimes about the chance that something is true, or the chance that something will happen.

  • @lisariggs5688

    @lisariggs5688

    19 күн бұрын

    Trophy or parade….you pick​@@lawrencetalbot8346

  • @blakeusry124

    @blakeusry124

    19 күн бұрын

    Statistics was the 2nd easiest class in college. The easiest being basket weaving.

  • @tesladrew2608

    @tesladrew2608

    19 күн бұрын

    ​@@lawrencetalbot8346i think i got a B cause I didn't do any homework

  • @historysuit9418
    @historysuit941813 күн бұрын

    Yea hes also said that he wont count the military defeat key since most people forgot about Bidens disastrous retreat from Afghanistan, but I don't think the almost 7% of Americans who have served out country will have forgotten easily.

  • @seversheen3044
    @seversheen30444 күн бұрын

    He says only 2 keys are in Trumps favor.... GTFO! Their is no way you can convince me that Keys 5, 8 and 10 are not already in Trumps favor.

  • @alpbridges3553

    @alpbridges3553

    3 күн бұрын

    He says 4 keys are shaky, and to be determined. And key 5 turned false only when there is a recession, the us is not in a recession so short-term economy is in bidens favour. With 10 depending on how the wars are resolved may go in bidens favour even though me and many wouldnt label them as succeses

  • @BlackSwan-qj8qs
    @BlackSwan-qj8qs19 күн бұрын

    Polls are obnoxious and almost always wrong.

  • @whatizbiz
    @whatizbiz19 күн бұрын

    Where do you guys get these polls from? They’re always totally off when it comes times for elections

  • @psongman9536

    @psongman9536

    19 күн бұрын

    Right, name me where Trump would be getting voters from, besides his base, ridiculous!

  • @MrPolandball

    @MrPolandball

    19 күн бұрын

    @@psongman9536Travel to any rural county and you’ll see.

  • @ruthpullis9279

    @ruthpullis9279

    19 күн бұрын

    If you want to do these polls you got to go to ddhq .. they to the polls.

  • @dave0051

    @dave0051

    18 күн бұрын

    ​@@psongman9536people like you are the problem. You voted for that gd p o s dementia patient that is currently in the White House.

  • @g_4784

    @g_4784

    18 күн бұрын

    ​@psongman9536 Middle class working people outside of progressive brainrot cities. That's where his base is.

  • @4DCResinSmoker
    @4DCResinSmoker13 күн бұрын

    Polls don't reflect the will of the people but rather exist to influence the will of the people.

  • @MissingHimStill

    @MissingHimStill

    11 күн бұрын

    Thank you!!!!

  • @sixgun2543
    @sixgun25437 күн бұрын

    I am looking at the 13 keys and thinking Biden loses almost all of them. I don’t know how this guy can’t see it.

  • @DisenfranchisedLiberal

    @DisenfranchisedLiberal

    6 күн бұрын

    Same. I wonder how he's interpreting them in any other way. His keys would seem to indicate a large Trump victory.

  • @janetbarels6999
    @janetbarels699919 күн бұрын

    Who are they polling? I've never been asked

  • @drumpfisidiot5021

    @drumpfisidiot5021

    19 күн бұрын

    I say this to myself every time. A lot are still done via phone. Younger folks don't have land lines and are at work during the day. Retired boomers have landlines.

  • @Boomhauersdad

    @Boomhauersdad

    19 күн бұрын

    Cause u don’t matter

  • @janetbarels6999

    @janetbarels6999

    19 күн бұрын

    @@Boomhauersdad real mature,

  • @Oregon-2024

    @Oregon-2024

    18 күн бұрын

    @@Boomhauersdadthat’s not very nice

  • @davidlaya939

    @davidlaya939

    17 күн бұрын

    I mean, they count anything as a poll, if you donate to someone’s campaign, you are contributing to the poll, if you vote for someone, that contributes to a poll.

  • @trique9776
    @trique977614 күн бұрын

    I have been watching this guy predict election after election in advance and he is always right. Genius method, I’m not sure how he came up with this system of prediction.

  • @JimDandy-rn4vd

    @JimDandy-rn4vd

    14 күн бұрын

    And I'm real sure he got rick in Vegas.

  • @TheRealTommyR

    @TheRealTommyR

    13 күн бұрын

    He went to Harvard and specialized in history and quantitative methods. He combined those skills to figure out how to predict elections. I’ve been watching him election after election also. He has books.

  • @NightSkeptic

    @NightSkeptic

    13 күн бұрын

    @@JimDandy-rn4vd Why Vegas? He gets appearance fees and book residuals that surge every four years; that's much better than whatever Vegas could give him. And it's illegal to gamble on political elections.

  • @smak387

    @smak387

    13 күн бұрын

    His method boils down to this: will there be a manufactured crisis that the press blames on the incumbent.

  • @Shineon83

    @Shineon83

    13 күн бұрын

    …I’m guessing that 2024 will be his 2nd “miss” ( Most Americans will just not accept his “passing” on debates-no matter what excuse his staff make, it will be seen as confirmation of his mental decline )

  • @claygolden6566
    @claygolden656612 күн бұрын

    he didn’t say nothing about how groceries and everyday things are more expensive 😭🙏joke

  • @EVIL-C

    @EVIL-C

    11 күн бұрын

    He didn't say "anything", not nothing. It's called inflation. Guess what? Once prices go up, they rarely go back down. If you think chump will magically lower everything back down to pre-covid prices, you live in a fantasy land, little child.

  • @GeneralKenobi69420
    @GeneralKenobi694207 күн бұрын

    They're both sitting at 50% and have been basically since forever. At the end of the day it's impossible to tell. It's literally a coin toss

  • @MrNobodyJones
    @MrNobodyJones19 күн бұрын

    No way Donald and Biden should be nearly 50/50. To me, this says more about America than it does about either candidate. A lot of people wouldn’t want a man with Donald’s character to live next door to them, but they have no problem making him the most powerful man in the world. We should all find that dynamic disturbing.

  • @GavDuggan1983

    @GavDuggan1983

    19 күн бұрын

    You’re absolutely right about the next door comment.

  • @occupybarstools5205

    @occupybarstools5205

    19 күн бұрын

    It says the most about the polls themselves and how unreliable they can be as a predictor of anything.

  • @MrNobodyJones

    @MrNobodyJones

    19 күн бұрын

    @@occupybarstools5205 Yes! Every day the numbers change. At this point I think the people who want DONT want Donald are gonna vote for Biden. The people who WANT Donald are gonna vote for Donald. I don’t think anyone is changing their minds, yet the poll numbers change every single day, as if people are changing their minds every single day. I’m a veteran. Character, integrity, honor and morals mean something to me. Donald doesn’t care about any of those things. I’m not a fan of Biden, or any politician for that matter. But I know a man like Donald should never be a United States president. I think he’s gonna win the election tho. Biden is boring. Trump is exciting. Americans like entertainment. Donald is entertaining.

  • @specialagentorange4329

    @specialagentorange4329

    19 күн бұрын

    We are hiring Don as an employee not neighbor. This is what people mean when they say dems vote based on emotions.

  • @user-bl3vk8qc6h

    @user-bl3vk8qc6h

    19 күн бұрын

    I would love Trump as my neighbor. Biden should be locked in the basement

  • @Kimm.J
    @Kimm.J19 күн бұрын

    Vote for Reason 🔵💙 Not for Treason ❌ 🇺🇸 Biden 🇺🇸

  • @illuminatedtiger

    @illuminatedtiger

    19 күн бұрын

    Kasabian

  • @sabin97

    @sabin97

    19 күн бұрын

    both of them represent jenna side. a vote for either is to be complicit in it.

  • @stephanegosselin2861

    @stephanegosselin2861

    19 күн бұрын

    Jenna side says “ President Biden is not for genocide “

  • @InglesDinamico100

    @InglesDinamico100

    19 күн бұрын

    Reason its vote red ❤️

  • @davidjorgensen877

    @davidjorgensen877

    19 күн бұрын

    @@InglesDinamico100 Treason is the guy who stocked classified documents beside the toilet paper.

  • @HistoryMatters990
    @HistoryMatters99010 сағат бұрын

    I have a close friend John Denner who dedicates his life to politics out of Norwich Vermont who also predicts Joe Biden is going to win the Election in 2024. My gut tells me it's going to be Donald Trump. Very tricky to understand this dynamic

  • @ugotmossed84
    @ugotmossed8411 күн бұрын

    He’s incredibly unconvincing.

  • @mellow5123
    @mellow512317 күн бұрын

    Did she not listen to what he said? He told her exactly where things stand. Girl needs to listen.

  • @K10802

    @K10802

    16 күн бұрын

    Bet she didn't understand a single thing and just wanted to simple it out for her or maybe viewers

  • @JonStark117

    @JonStark117

    16 күн бұрын

    *She typically tends to be a bit detached. Her descriptive coverage of the man in front of the Trump building was a bit bizarre. She also has shown her own agenda in her reporting.*

  • @TheDropdeadZed

    @TheDropdeadZed

    16 күн бұрын

    She's a political commentator/pundit. This sort of thing is good for television. She's not seriously expecting an answer and knows there isn't one but it's entertaining to see the back and forth.

  • @liamalepta8003

    @liamalepta8003

    16 күн бұрын

    its all their agenda to mind control.people to vote their agenda. So they lie, lie, lie... lie out their stinky arse to the public. CNN has the lowest ratings of reporting truthful news... go calculate that.

  • @mellow5123

    @mellow5123

    16 күн бұрын

    @@TheDropdeadZed I sure wouldn't call her a pundit! Lol.

  • @jamesof7seven
    @jamesof7seven16 күн бұрын

    Hillary was light years ahead in the polls... we know how that turned out. Being ahead in the polls at this stage of the game isn't a good sign.

  • @nielwilliams4687

    @nielwilliams4687

    15 күн бұрын

    Do you really support Killary ?

  • @jacobstravail

    @jacobstravail

    15 күн бұрын

    @@nielwilliams4687 you're what's wrong with this country

  • @TheLostplanet99

    @TheLostplanet99

    15 күн бұрын

    not a good sign nor is it bad. thats the point of this. dont follow the polls

  • @johnconway9882

    @johnconway9882

    15 күн бұрын

    Yes, this is true...there was a hidden mass of "silent" Trump voters, unwilling to admit that they would cast a vote for such a candidate. QUESTION of THE MOMENT: Does Joe Biden have a hidden mass of "silent" supporters, unwilling to admit that they would vote for an 82 year old puppet? Are they feigning support for Trump?

  • @markz5505

    @markz5505

    15 күн бұрын

    Hillary couldn’t fill a high school gymnasium, while Trump was having overflow crowds at stadiums on a regular basis!

  • @dudleyowens
    @dudleyowens12 күн бұрын

    Because professors are never wrong

  • @hectorbelarmino6457
    @hectorbelarmino6457Күн бұрын

    Why? That is so stupid!

  • @percivalgooglyeyes6178
    @percivalgooglyeyes617818 күн бұрын

    The popular vote doesn't matter in the national election for President. It's going to be decided by voters in a few dozen counties in 5 key battleground States. It's actually very ridiculous when you think about it.

  • @iwouldliketoorderanumber1b79

    @iwouldliketoorderanumber1b79

    17 күн бұрын

    Popular vote should trump all but it doesn’t unfortunately.

  • @TreDeuce-qw3kv

    @TreDeuce-qw3kv

    16 күн бұрын

    And that is the Scary part. Trump lost both elections with the popular vote.

  • @Samuel_910

    @Samuel_910

    16 күн бұрын

    Civics is crying.

  • @richardburnett-_

    @richardburnett-_

    16 күн бұрын

    Votes aren't enough this time: a few red states will withhold certification for Biden, he won't reach 270 electoral votes and (per the Constitution) it goes to one vote per state and (R)s hold the majority. This has happened twice before in US history.

  • @jamilabagash149

    @jamilabagash149

    16 күн бұрын

    Agree. The voting system is structured so that the minority has a better chance of winning than the majority. It is rigged at the onset, so that just in case.....

  • @jonasfermefors
    @jonasfermefors18 күн бұрын

    Seriously. Laura Coates - what are you doing? He said that something major would have to shift otherwise he will predict Biden. She keeps pushing him [with a joking tone] to make a prediction he's already stated clearly.