US Elections | 'Nostradamus' Of US Presidential Elections Makes Another Big Poll Prediction For 2024
Allan Lichtman, who is a history professor has been teaching at the American University in Washington for half a century and has correctly predicted the result of nine of the past 10 (and even the one that got away, in 2000, he insists was stolen from Al Gore).
Now, he is gearing up for perhaps his greatest challenge: Joe Biden v Donald Trump. He speaks to NDTV's Parmeshwar Bawa on who is likely to win the US presidential election in 2024, whether Trump's legal troubles have had any effect on his popularity and much more, on The World 24x7.
#AllanLightman #USPresidentialElections2024 #DonaldTrump #JoeBiden #TheWorld24x7
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Пікірлер: 669
Trump Trails by 1.5??? BULL! It’s TRUMP 2025 alll the way
This guy says a lot of nothing
Dominion system dont care about predictions and polls
@bcroger2
14 күн бұрын
More excuses for your election losses?
@grannyllama617
14 күн бұрын
This can be checked by ai and duplicate computer systems
@SenorJuan2023
13 күн бұрын
4 years and still no evidence. Grow up!
@SenorJuan2023
13 күн бұрын
You think Trump got 75 million votes despite dismal approval ratings his entire term? hahahahahahahaha
@geraldpowell4403
9 күн бұрын
Not when they can be easily hacked.
One day, voting 🗳 no mail-in-ballots vote in person, no drop boxes , the Pandemic is over and one day 24 hrs. to count , no delays for weeks . 24 hrs.
Trump 2024 forever.
Just be sure to VOTE for the candidate of your choice on 05 NOV, Tuesday.
Take your keys and shove it
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
cry harder
@user-zb2vr2yo1x
14 күн бұрын
Why would anyone in right mind want Trump the lying narcissistic piece of s***
@AHammock
Күн бұрын
He is a blue 💩
One got away in 2000. Another got away in 2020.
Anyone else wish that guy had said “THE Keys, MY Keys, THOSE Keys, THAT Key… key Key KEY!” a few Gazillion more times? 🤨🤦🏻♂️🙄🤪
Lic.htman is.full of it.
@jacobstravail
13 күн бұрын
Someone is scared 😅
@caroleeb1997
13 күн бұрын
Trump needs to get ready to lose
@burtrangle3546
12 күн бұрын
@@caroleeb1997You need to sweep up the hair in your cubicle.
@barbarafuller5098
10 күн бұрын
Actually he has always been right . I've been watching him for years
@noemibarrios4056
7 күн бұрын
@@caroleeb1997You need to to get ready to cry
Only way is cheating
@SenorJuan2023
13 күн бұрын
Brainwashed you must be.
@barbarafuller5098
10 күн бұрын
They only person who ever tried to cheat and overturn a election was Trump
I always say this. After 2016 , I don’t rely on polls anymore.every poll showed that, Hillary was winning, not only winning but in the land slide. Some people did give up. But after the polls closed, we all saw what happened. Polls is a snap chart, like he said
@hebronharvester1487
7 күн бұрын
But they did predict she would win the popular vote overall, which she did handedly. State by state polls may have been inaccurate but they "all" weren't inaccurate
@Shogun-my5nc
4 күн бұрын
@@hebronharvester1487 They were pretty inaccurate. Even in the popular vote, Clinton received less than 50% of the vote. The same thing happened in 1992 and 1996.
@hebronharvester1487
3 күн бұрын
@Shogun-my5nc how did she receive less than 50 percent of the vote when she won the popular vote? Are you saying it's because others didn't vote?
@flobekoe
3 күн бұрын
@@hebronharvester1487 she won the popular vote by lost state by state
@hebronharvester1487
3 күн бұрын
@@flobekoe I've acknowledged that
I think his ‘keys’ are not going to start the motor this year. They’ve been swept into the gutters of TDS!
But he is kind of contested because Kennedy has an independent candidate is really the Democrat. They should’ve been pinned against Biden.
I'm voting for freedom and democracy. Which guy is my best shot?
@geraldpowell4403
19 күн бұрын
HINT not the guy trying to put his political opponent in prison.
@tyy5557
18 күн бұрын
Biden. Period.
@user-lq7ov4df2d
18 күн бұрын
The Republic you mean.
@judyslaven1267
18 күн бұрын
Trump 2024
@Knightsofsane
18 күн бұрын
The only candidate who believes in democracy
He missed George Bush
This guy's a fool
@barbarafuller5098
10 күн бұрын
No he's always been right
@davidkruse4030
9 күн бұрын
@@barbarafuller5098he is a fool
@hebronharvester1487
7 күн бұрын
@@barbarafuller5098 not in 2000, but mostly, you're right.
And the pessimist in me asks, “couldn’t Biden and Trump share an incumbency key?”
@radagast25a
16 күн бұрын
Nope, its the party in the White House at the time.
@hebronharvester1487
7 күн бұрын
I agree, because this is not a traditional "incumbent" election. Both are sort of incumbents. I think the economy key could go either way because I've heard several say it's not good under Biden... and third party? RFK is making noise, but he's not factoring that
Is he in on the cheat? Vote up and down the ticket! Support state and local!! VOTE RED!!!!
Biden too old Trump 2024❤
@caroleeb1997
13 күн бұрын
trump is old and unhealthy
@djstud1987
9 күн бұрын
Trump is 3 yrs younger than Biden you moron
This will start your fall of prediction
@radagast25a
16 күн бұрын
More likely you are going to take it on the chin and be very unhappy - Trump flags are disappearing everywhere in this rural White consevative area - in fact, there is only one left in the village. 6 months ago there were close to a dozen. People are just now beginning to pay attention in the suburbs where I (I'm originally from a city) have many friends, and I'm literally seeing people switch sides as I watch. Trump will lose NONE of his base, but his base is about 12.8% of the total population. His soft supporters and independents, both of which he requires to actually win are fading from him - the trends have shown that consistently for months. Trends matter much more than snapshots.
You forgot to mention Senile
Also, there’s a whole new element of massive social media platforms & with a popular independent candidate that is gaining support/popularity amongst those previously apathetic towards any presidential campaign. RFK Jr could easily slip in there with a 34% in enough states to get to 270 electoral votes. This is real this could happen and we might witness the first time we can end this Duop and this insanity of nothing changes nothing changes. It’s time for change RFk Jr for President.
He must have known the rig was in on 2020 because I watched till 400 and trump was winning.
@josephtoney360
7 күн бұрын
Trump use the stupidest people to make that dumb s*** believable but the facts far away with Trump was telling the stupid people that's why Trump is not the president and he will never be the president of the United States again
What are you smoking
@radagast25a
16 күн бұрын
Just watch, his predictions have been amazing over the years.
LOL you can see him sweating this time, because his own model clearly show trumps going to win but he doesnt want to admit it
@josephtoney360
9 күн бұрын
Lol 😀, you so stupid if you think the polls are telling you the truth about who's going to win the election in May Trump doesn't stand a chance to get back into the White House just like the Red Wave of 2022 Trump will not reach the White House quit dreaming and laughing out loud
@hebronharvester1487
7 күн бұрын
I mean he's omitting the third party key, which is clearly present. The incumbent key is basically nullified because both candidates sort of fit "incumbent." And whether you agree the economy is good or not, I've heard several dissent, so I do agree he puts a bit of his own bias into this
DO NOT FORGET TO WATCH HIM AND HIS SON SAM TOMORROW AT 6!
Thank you.
Ha so funny suddenly people in their 70s to 90s❤❤🎉🎉
Always good to see Allan.
Not much choice , honestly.
Incumbency and contest seem the same thing since there is rarely a contest against the incumbent, especially when you’re party refuses to let you run, Robert Kennedy comes to mind. But they claim to be the ones saving democracy.
1992, Ross Perot cost Bush the presidency.
❤🎉😮 it says top of the morning 🙏
What is news anchor name ❤❤❤❤
@liz3424
22 күн бұрын
Hi is "Donkey full of 💩
He's funny!!!!
Trimp🎉
FJB!
He's saying, there going to cheat again, and then we'll have a war😢
I guess this guy hasn't been paying attention lately.
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
cry harder, biden is going to win. again. get the tissues ready fashy 😂😂😂
So Joe won from his basement last time. Why don't he just get back in his basement.
@jacobstravail
18 күн бұрын
Covid, u moron
Sorry, not this year! 🤣🤣🤣
Thank you!!! 😊
@anitafischer9714
22 күн бұрын
BS! TRUMP2024🎉
@Love_Daisys
21 күн бұрын
@@anitafischer9714no way !🎉
@user-pe6oz5ok5q
19 күн бұрын
Hope Trump Wins
Please please please say it’s true
Didn't this guy used to be on Star Trek ?
1994 was NOT a presidential election year. He starts off wrong right there.
NostDumus!
It's hard to believe incompetent will win against Trump, I meab who likes that guy??
NEVER HEARD OF THIS PERSON. From a 85 year old retired Command level officer.
@caroleeb1997
13 күн бұрын
He has been around for many years. BTW, my father is an 85 yr old vet and he hates Trump and the republicans
Trump 2024
VOTE RED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@edmunddavis3178
20 күн бұрын
Why ?
@leecurtis6354
17 күн бұрын
Why have the same old, same old? Kennedy is smarter and younger, so at least, he won't drop dead so soon.
@itslyz5541
8 күн бұрын
@@edmunddavis3178better economy better foreign policy better safety better common sense better education better country!!!!
THURSDAY AT 6!
Wow. This guy must be paid off to spew a line of BS…
@ETT-ABP-OEF09
19 күн бұрын
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️
@user-rm4ee5fp2i
18 күн бұрын
Are yanks that stupid for Christ sake he should be in a home
@davidbarlow372
18 күн бұрын
the thing is he is always right
@lunaco2008
18 күн бұрын
Easy to be right when there’s cheating going on…
@davidbarlow372
18 күн бұрын
@@lunaco2008 ,,so when he predicted the Republicans would win when TRUMP BUSH AND REAGAN WON AND HE WAS RIGHT.... so by your comment their must have been cheating going on for the Republicans since it is easy to be right which he WAS,,, when cheating is going on... other wise how would REPUBLICANS HAVE WON..you might want to rethink you comment....just saying
I hope you are right…Yesss!
Thanks to his love for junk food, coke, uppers, no sleep and massive economic pressures not t mention his court cases, a massive stroke is knocking at his door.
@jb894
25 күн бұрын
You hope pedophile
@SenorJuan2023
13 күн бұрын
Make it happen!
@user-uw9xt1fh2h
13 күн бұрын
Allan light man hates Trump. Forget keys this man is a liar.he never say anything good about Trump.😮
@lurlenereynolds3740
9 күн бұрын
He looks a million times better than old joe.
@SenorJuan2023
9 күн бұрын
@@lurlenereynolds3740 uh, no. Not only does Trump have cognitive issues now, but he's been mentally ill for some time. Why the so called liberal media doesn't pound him on this is beyond me. I'm amazed at how many Americans let their political bias twist objective reality.
He’s a SA bought Democrat.
Trump 2024❤
Hes in trouble
Baloney!!!
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
nope, trumplethinskin is going to lose. again.
13 Very subjective keys.
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
he's going to be right again, cry about it
@neilr603
14 сағат бұрын
Crying is gonna be you as Biden is bad for this country
Trump was the most successful CON ARTIST in America's history and all his supporters still don't know why they support him 😂😂😂😂😂
If Joe Biden could transform his body to flat face man (without eyes, nose, mouth, ears) and Trump can be sandals which my teacher need me to acting as Donald Trump what will happens to USA in Future.
He's obviously biased. Whatever, blah, blah.
@papercup2517
26 күн бұрын
Biased, and yet right 9 out of the last 10 Presidential elections?
@Jane20121985
15 күн бұрын
@@papercup2517 so he has been WRONG before you admit
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
WAH WAH WAH HE DIDNT SAY TRUMP IS THE GREATEST MAN TO EVER WALK THE EARTH HE MUST BE BIASED WAH WAH WAH 😂😂😂 ooo November is gonna be a rough month for you buddy
@papercup2517
14 күн бұрын
@@Jane20121985 I'm just stating the facts, as I understand them. I understand that the last time he was wrong was not picking Ronald Reagan, so it's a while ago. That seems like an exceptional record. By all means fact check any of this if you doubt its accuracy.
😎😎😎😎😎😎😎😎
Propaganda rhetoric.
FELON-47 WILL BE BACK! TRUMP 2024🎉🎉🎉
MAGA 2024
This man doesn't know who will win. Alot of Dems are leaving the party and voting for trump
@caroleeb1997
13 күн бұрын
who told you that? LOL No, they are not leaving
Not interested!
Open borders, dude
never mind that RFK JR factor ! if "they" allow bobby onto the debate stage, its ALL over ! then america will know the smears are NOT true, and they censor him like crazy !
@radagast25a
16 күн бұрын
The smears are very true. He is a disgrace to the Kennedy family and a failure as a politician.
@chrismatteson2337
16 күн бұрын
Anyone who thinks he's a disgrace to his father and uncle are not cognizant to his true beliefs and values. Only the intelligent have researched this and not listen to hearsay.
@teresaboone893
15 күн бұрын
@@chrismatteson2337 I think you've taken to much horse wormer.
@chrismatteson2337
15 күн бұрын
@@teresaboone893 too not to
Trump I will vote for he's my president
@patriciaschuster1371
11 күн бұрын
He is a wuznik!
President trump 2024!!
Ok
Yes, I agree. Little Bushy tail stolen from Gore . Both of them were corrupted . & Joey will fall again. Break a leg. I fallen & I can't get up.
The good news is you dont have to vote for Joe. He gets 81 million votes 😊
@pinkyoshigaming3551
26 күн бұрын
But you still should, there’s still a chance he’s wrong
@devilmecare
25 күн бұрын
That's how we ended up with trump
@pinkyoshigaming3551
25 күн бұрын
@@devilmecare EXACTLY!
@pinkyoshigaming3551
25 күн бұрын
@@devilmecare EXACTLY!
@pinkyoshigaming3551
25 күн бұрын
@@devilmecare EXACTLY!
BS....FJB..
No you don't have a crystal ball but you are delusional
@jacobstravail
18 күн бұрын
Someone sounds scared 😅
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
@@jacobstravail they all loved him when he predicted trump would win in 2016, now suddenly they hate him. i wonder why?? 😂😂😂
@jacobstravail
14 күн бұрын
@@RealAmerican73 👏
A liberal professor who teaches in a liberal state for a liberal school. His own analysis of theses keys are clearly liberal and he liberally claims he won 10 in a row despite 2000 not going his way. Hmm....
@Cinderella121
2 күн бұрын
He predicted that Trump would win in 2016 and MAGA idiots loved him then.
Thanks be to God.
@stevenamato6289
24 күн бұрын
You're on the left you don't have a God remember
Once he is wrong u will never hear of him again
@seanlee7563
Ай бұрын
You would hear DT no matter what, and possibly Putin too.
@ragames7320
29 күн бұрын
They said he was gonna be wrong in 2016 and 2020. Guess who was right...
@wr3eckeriv640
29 күн бұрын
Ah yes, the KZread commentator is a more reliable source than the Harvard PhD with 40 years of accurate election predictions...
@Ro-nu7vv
26 күн бұрын
He was wrong for 2000 election he predicted Al Gore while Bush won
@user-hn8xy1gq7e
18 күн бұрын
I agree
*10 True Keys* 1)No primary contest 2)Incumbent seeking re-election 3)No 3rd Party 4)Strong short-term economy 5)Strong long-term economy 6)Major policy change 7)No social unrest 8)No major scandal 9)No major foreign / military failure 10)Uncharismatic challenger *3 False Keys* 1)Midterm gains 2)Major foreign / military success 3)Charismatic incumbent
@nick8243
28 күн бұрын
He said in the video that Biden is only down 2 keys which means he holds the foreign military success key as of now. But it's a shakey key.
@mintee8638
24 күн бұрын
I think 5 more keys are false: The 2 economy ones may be false keys. If you look up "median income range by year", adjusted for inflation, they seem to be down. There is certainly multiple 3rd party challengers. I think this indicator was false in the 2000 election, and I think the numbers there were smaller then. There is no major policy change that most non-hyper-political people know of- unlike Obamacare- and apparently Trump tax cuts (based on Wikipedia Lichtman model for 2020). There is probably enough 'social unrest', particularly when both sides of the media talks about it for weeks, though it may have only been a week so far. 5 more false keys (8 total) would presumably mean Trump +2, similar to what the polls are saying. Edit: My predictions based on this 8: Trump wins MN and NH. 9: If Ukraine falls, Trump wins VA and ME. 10: If there's also a Joe scandal that everyone talks about for weeks: Trump wins NM and CO.
@Jane20121985
15 күн бұрын
Major Foreign Policy Failure: Aghan Debacle that first drove his poll numbers below 50 and has never recovered. Leaving $83,000.000.000 of military hardware in the hands of a terrorist group on planet earth post 9/11 is a big deal. Np Major Policy Change. Period. The chance he had was with pushing a Digital Currency Economy but he failed to follow through. 3rd Party: Bobby Kennedy Jr. Polling well over 5% Long Term Economy: Fail based on his books way of measuring it. Major Scandal? Close Call Social Unrest? Toyed with by Bidens Base on college campuses. We will see what happens over the summer and fall.
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
@@mintee8638 lol so much cope, the economy keys are both in biden's favors, rfk is polling below the threshold lichtman looks for to turn that key against biden, biden has passed the most domestic legislation in decades so major policy change is obviously in biden's favor, and the social unrest key has not reached anywhere near the levels of 2020, which was the last time it was turned against the party in power. biden wins michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and arizona, and he without a doubt wins minnesota, new hampshire, virginia, 3 out of 4 electoral votes from maine, new mexico, and colorado
This guy is totally biased.
At Last some scientific analyses.
Wow this guys such a joke
Whatever
This guy has a great topee! Trump 2024!
@neverbackdown4187
16 күн бұрын
In jail .
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
@@neverbackdown4187 Trump 20-24 years in prison!! the melted orange is going to lose again, can't wait for the coping from the right 😂😂😂
This guy reminds me of Engoron and Mercan combined
@JACB9675
18 күн бұрын
He is a nutjob.
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
cry harder, trump is going to lose. again. can't wait for the conservative tears 😂😂😂
@JACB9675
14 күн бұрын
@RealAmerican73, where have you been in the last three and a half years? Perhaps in Uranus?
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
@@JACB9675 when i’m right you’re just going to cry it was stolen again 😂😂😂 you guys are so predictable
@JACB9675
12 күн бұрын
@RealAmerican73 What you don't understand is that Biden is an inept, corrupt, incompetent excuse of a president who has ruined the nation. He is also a plagiarizer and a liar who ran for president three times and never made it. The only way he got to the White House was by cheating and stealing the elections, so this time, there was no way in hell he would win. Therefore, you will never be right.
Alan are you woke or common sense person?
LIGHTMAN IS WRONG THIS TIME !
@Jane20121985
15 күн бұрын
He has been wrong before
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
they always say he's going to be wrong "this time", and he always ends up being right. biden is going to win again whether you like it or not.
BS... blah blah blah
@neverbackdown4187
16 күн бұрын
Biden is going to win , suck IT bro .
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
CRY... wah wah wah, biden is going to win. again. whether you like it or not.
That Speaker Mike Johnson insult revealed this guys religious bigotry.
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
cry harder
Allan is not be asked the right questions, is tne recession key still standing?
@seanlee7563
Ай бұрын
There is no recession. The economy is strong a steel. Inflation is not the same as recession.
@otsienocharles7300
Ай бұрын
@@seanlee7563 But he applied that key on Trump in 2020 and there was no recession, and then it was economy key now he is calling it recession key. He will get it wrong this time.
@seanlee7563
Ай бұрын
@@otsienocharles7300 You didn't pay attention at all. Almost 3mil jobs lost. The unemployment rate increased by 1.6 percentage points to 6.3%. The real GDP declined 3.4% in 2020 from the previous year. It was the largest drop since 1947, when the nation’s economy declined 11.6% after years of economic expansion fueled by World War II. These 3 things tell you that it was a recession.
@lintoppthomas
Ай бұрын
@@seanlee7563 you are just blabbering leftist.....it's the jobs which got lost in covid are coming back.. Biden created no New jobs.. Only Govt jobs are increased.... Biden is losing.. People are fed up of Biden..
@lintoppthomas
Ай бұрын
@@seanlee7563 you are just making stuff up.. It's only the covid jobs that's coming back.. Biden not created any jobs.. Govt jobs are increased... Inflation is hight.. Trump is winning.. It's over for Biden..
Nice jokes
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
cry harder, biden 2024
Alan lichtman is very biassed and may not always apply his judgement of accordance with the 13 keys correctly.
@papercup2517
26 күн бұрын
Biased or not, he's apparently been correct in his predictions for 9 out of the last 10 Presidential winners.
@beetlejuice4822
25 күн бұрын
He predicted Trump’s win in 2016 when at that time Hillary was leading the polls.
@user-ri2oj6yz6c
24 күн бұрын
@@beetlejuice4822 i don't think he was right about the 2020 elections. Those were full of election fraud and peoples decisions what to vote for were decided by fake news as were the results, alongside all the fraud.
@Love_Daisys
21 күн бұрын
You're a misogynist and cannot understand freedoms for all included women. You're not staying employed here in the USA ❤
@jacobstravail
18 күн бұрын
@@papercup2517he wasn't wrong. Didn't you hear what he said
Lichtman is being deceitful when he says “all 4 keys have to fall and that’s not likely.” There are 13 keys and Joe only owns 2 of them. So If 6 of any of the 11 keys go against Joe according to Lichtman he loses.
@RealAmerican73
14 күн бұрын
it always amazes me the mental gymnastics people do when their preferred candidate isn't predicted to win, this is HIS system, not yours, he is the man who has predicted every election correctly since reagan, not you. he will be right, and you will be wrong. i'm sure you already have a list of excuses for when the melted orange loses again.
This man is a nutcase, Trump won half the entire country! Therefore, his broad appeal is apparent. Furthermore, he is a very inspirational President much more so than Reagan! I have lived through both of them.
@SenorJuan2023
13 күн бұрын
Much more than Reagan. NONSENSE, and I remember Reagan too. Reagan was actually likable, NOT repugnant.
@caroleeb1997
13 күн бұрын
He did not win half the country. Trump will lose even more in Nov.
@randomhuman2595
12 күн бұрын
Trump is charismatic go Republicans but not to anyone else. Reagan on the other hand was charismatic even to Democrats, that's why many of them votes for him
@JACB9675
12 күн бұрын
@randomhuman2595 This is not about being charismatic. It's about policy. Trump's policies work.
@SenorJuan2023
12 күн бұрын
@@JACB9675 The Germans overlooked Hit ler's mental illness for the same reasons. Mental illness in a leader has terrible consequences. Google Personality disorder.
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I believe Gods prophets not this soulish man
You bumped your head