The more I think about Aftersun not being nominated for best picture, the more angry I get.

@sharathnarayan2715

Жыл бұрын

Exactly!! Even she should have been nominated for best director!!

@themadcat5288

Жыл бұрын

Felt like a no brainer too, one of the best debuts in recent memory

@johntheX

Жыл бұрын

director, screenplay and picture, all of them are criminal.Her first movie, unbelievable.

@replicantona

Жыл бұрын

And then you have remedial shit like Elvis getting nominated, just like Bohemian Rhapsody before it, which won 4 Oscars, which makes me cry.

@ChrolliForever

Жыл бұрын

​@@replicantona and sadly history will be repeating again. Sadly rocketman was better than these twi and didnt get this hype. :-( egerton deserves better.

I love that 3/4 of the acting categories are still kinda up in the air. Trying to remember a year where that was the case -- seems like most of the acting categories are locked up most years. Looks like its Fraser v. Butler (Actor), Yeoh v. Blanchett (Actress) and JLC v. Condon v. Bassett (S. Actress). Prob not gonna happen but Farrell or Hsu could be upsets but I don't think they'll win unfortunately.

@osofilms1319

Жыл бұрын

I would love to see Hsu upset. I can see her having one of the loudest and exciting standing ovations because of how unexpected it was!

@Truman5555

Жыл бұрын

I also think it's possible for the Supporting Actress to have a tie!

@melisagalvalizi6982

Жыл бұрын

hope they come to their senses and choose fraser

@dunicht6376

Жыл бұрын

I would love to see Farrell win because he was just phenomenal, but unfortunately the Oscars usually dont award subtle performances

I lived Elvis in my youth ! Omg ! Austin was so amazing - I was transformed back in time !!! He was brilliant . Let’s not forget that Austin’s been in the craft since he was 12. Watch him in Shannara Chronicle - so reflects how could this young guys acting will become . & the work for 3 + years perfecting the Elvis role & so loved by the Presley family . The young guy this year. !!Good luck Austin !!! 🎉

in best supporting actress awards, it's b/w Jamie and Kerry, but why don't we all agree that Stephanie Hsu gave the most dynamic performance of all of them. Look she was a victim a loner a villain and at the end a daughter. And my god she was fabulous. I just don't understand why rally for legends only and not for fresh artists who give such a magnanimous performance only to be snubbed? This ia crazy from the moment EEAAO came out i thought Stephanie had supporting award in the bag. I know Basette was great, Kerry was good but Stephanie was outstanding. I guess I might be bad at judgement but EEAAO was the film of the year not just by narrative but also by all the actors and their amazing performances.

@kc8x

Жыл бұрын

I'd say Hong Chau was outstanding as well. I find supporting actress more dynamic than lead this year.

@samisfun868

Жыл бұрын

i never thought Hsu would win Oscar but I knew she would at least get nom. in this day and age, as you see - it's about career awards.

@schmuck.on.wheels

Жыл бұрын

Idk I thought she was good but the character just didn't feel that fleshed out or "real" to me. One of the stronger performances in the category and I'm really glad she was nominated but Condon was easily the best for me.

@paulmeredith9404

Жыл бұрын

Kerry Condon is like by far the best performance in this category imo. Chau is very good, Hsu and Bassett are fine, the less said about Curtis the better.

@wylier

Жыл бұрын

@@samisfun868 If that was the case, why is Austin Butler - a relative newcomer - considered a front-runner for Best Actor?

Imagine if the race for Best Actress is SO tight that the ceremony pulls a 1969 and we get a tie between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. I don’t think it’ll happen, but a man can dream. Lol ❤

@kevlow9494

Жыл бұрын

Really love this idea. Not an impossibility but improbable.

@dashkataey1740

Жыл бұрын

Honestly, that is my big hope. Both really deserve the Oscar and it would be so amazing.

@ZoraNH.dusttracks1891

Жыл бұрын

Really hope not.

@Little1Cave

Жыл бұрын

@@ZoraNH.dusttracks1891 Why not?

@Zanderthegrape

Жыл бұрын

@@Little1Cave because the 2nd POC to win Best Actress out of 95 years shouldn’t be shared with anyone else

Something to consider when it comes to SAG: In 2016 it merged with AFTRA, so you also have a whole guild's worth of TV and radio personalities who aren't Academy members voting for the SAG awards, which is why I think they've been less predictive when it comes to non-sweeping acting races, and is also probably the reason they tend to reward more minorities (you may remember 2020, all four of the individual acting winners were people of color). BAFTA has more overlap with the Academy than SAG does, so I would take those with a grain of salt. Still, this is the first time since SAG merged with AFTRA that all four acting categories differed between SAG and BAFTA, so we'll see on Sunday what that manes for the Oscars. I'm still more inclined to look at the BAFTA winners for that reason...

@dacrimsoncurse

Жыл бұрын

International academy voters are 30% of the whole board And not all of them are british or european

@isaacrichter3269

Жыл бұрын

@@dacrimsoncurse Do we know if there are local Academy members who are also members of BAFTA (given how many of them have participated in a lot of British cinema)?...

@saxiao7787

Жыл бұрын

I agree.

Congratulations for the analyzes that you always do, it proves that you have passion for what you do. I loved that you made a timeline of past bafta and sag winners

SHE DID IT ACADEMY AWARD WINNER MICHELLE YEOH 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 There is no way EEAAO is going to win all these Oscars and not take Michelle Yeoh along with it. It would be a quarter of the movie without her. It’s going to be Michelle it always has been 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

@jjjones8609

Жыл бұрын

They failed to realize the Michelle Yeoh is the first Asian to ever be nominated for a best actress in the history of all Oscars,

@flop8514

Жыл бұрын

@@jjjones8609 isn't Merle Oberon Asian too (mixed, but still born in Asia), but still that was in the 30s so been almost 90 yrs!

@ZiaLinkInk

Жыл бұрын

@@jjjones8609 Yeoh feels like LOCK to me along with Ke Huy Quan for supporting Actor and probably Jamie Lee for supporting Actress. EEaaO is going to win a LOT including BEST PICTURE.

I think some great points were made here. For everyone thinking EEAO is going to dominate, it's fair to mention in recent years few films - even those beloved - have dominated. I feel like the Academy likes to spread the love around, especially with preferential balloting playing a bigger role. Great analysis, though, y'all!

@kidwithaphonecamera

Жыл бұрын

nah nah dune, gravity and many more won more than 4 oscars since 2010 including 2 best picture winners. so it can easily win 5 or 6

@themadcat5288

Жыл бұрын

Honestly can't remember any film that dominated every major category + acting noms. EEAOO would probably be the first, all though they don't have a Sound nom. BP, Directing, Screenplay, Actress, Supp Actor, Supp Actress, Editing, winning all of these would be a first in history? On The Waterfront lost supporting actor but they are the closest example. Return of the King // The Last Emperor // Gigi swept their nominated categories but had no acting nominations Titanic swept important categories (lost make-up) but lost all acting nominations + had no screenplay nom Ben-Hur and West Side Story are the closest but both lost screenplay Also adding to this, like you said "in recent years" all these examples are pretty dated, 2003 being the most recent date (Slumdog didn't have acting nominations)

@joser1853

Жыл бұрын

Stats are broken all the time.

@niknigal3379

Жыл бұрын

I agree. EEAAO will do well, but I don't think it will win as many awards as people think. Especially after what the BAFTAS did.

@youarebeingtrolled6954

Жыл бұрын

@@niknigal3379 baftas just went full on brit and euro though

People are sleeping on EEAAO’s costumes!! Jobu Tupaki had amazing costumes! There’s no way Babylon should lose best score. Voodoo Mama alone is worthy of the win! I can’t wait til Sunday, I’m filling my ballot out tonight! Thanks Oscar Expert for getting me to care about the Oscars.

@joser1853

Жыл бұрын

I just want it to freaking SWEEEEEP. Give me score and song too!

@ChrolliForever

Жыл бұрын

​@@joser1853 deal, if condon wins supporting actress. 9 oscars, that would be fucking insane. 🎉

@ClassicalMusic2002

Жыл бұрын

@@joser1853 Please let RRR win best song. Naatu Naatu isn't just a great song but it is such a huge moment in the movie plot-wise, not just a song tacked onto the credits to get a nomination.

@manantial773

Жыл бұрын

The score of All Quite is much better, Babylon is a rip off of La La Land, it is not winning.

@brendanbrown8704

Жыл бұрын

@@ClassicalMusic2002 absolutely. There is an entire Busby Berkeley fever dream musical about 60 minutes into the film to this song. Songs don’t just have to be lyrics. Naatu Naatu is the epitome of filmic music integrated into the actual film. I, too, think slapping some A list singer over ending credits is super lazy

There is one big thing you didn't factor in during your best actress discussion that you talked about before. BAFTA usually was the last awards show before voting started, so the winner of the BAFTA had momentum because the winners were on the voter's minds. This year, it was SAG, that's why it feels like the momentum is changing.

@oolongtea4013

Жыл бұрын

thats true but the thing is sag is made of 2 unions, including a radio union, which is why sometimes bafta usually calls it because a bigger proportion of bvoters in bafta ARE academy voters

@samisfun868

Жыл бұрын

@@oolongtea4013 but once again - the point here is not quite the overlapping of the members, but more of "momentum" - the fact that Yeoh won SAG, Spirit couple days right before voting started will be very telling.

@oolongtea4013

Жыл бұрын

@@samisfun868 that is very very very true which is why this category is seriously 50/50 and im not gonna bet on it

@clonnlijinhlong2713

Жыл бұрын

I mean...Either way..Cate or Tar wins?? We all know they both deserved it.

@Price70

Жыл бұрын

@@samisfun868 The Academy isn't influenced by narrative of comebacks, sob stories and lifetime achievements. Also, SAG coming first could just as easily influence BAFTA voters in those cases where they differed. It's a digital era of worldwide internet and social media so one being British and one being American means nothing.

“They were just jizzing on the movie.” Said with a complete straight face. I cannot with you guys 😂😂😂

Here are my Oscar Winner Predictions Best Picture * Everything Everywhere All At Once Best Director * Daniel Kwan & Daniel Schneiert-Everything Everywhere All At Once Best Actor * Austin Butler-Elvis Best Actress * Cate Blanchett-TÁR Best Supporting Actor * Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All At Once Best Supporting Actress * Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin Best Original Screenplay * The Banshees of Inisherin Best Adapted Screenplay * Women Talking Best Animated Feature * Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio Best Cinematography * All Quiet On The Western Front Best Makeup And Hairstyling * Elvis Best Costume Design * Elvis Best Original Score * Babylon Best Film Editing * Everything Everywhere All At Once Best Production Design * Babylon Best Sound * Top Gun: Maverick Best Visual Effects * Avatar: The Way of Water Best International Feature * All Quiet On The Western Front Best Documentary * Navalny Best Original Song * Naatu Naatu-RRR Best Live Action Short Film * An Irish Goodbye Documentary Short Film * Stranger at the Gate Animated Short Film * The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

@themadcat5288

Жыл бұрын

I'm with you but i'm still hoping for an Ice Merchants win

@slickwill9000

Жыл бұрын

This is basically my ballot. I’m still thinking hard on Original Screenplay though

always enjoy watching you guys!

I adore both of you, your differing opinions, and your industry logic. Expect surprises!

I think the whole "Austin Butler's too young to win" thing would stand if he wasn't playing a real person but I really think he'll win

@Price70

Жыл бұрын

They gave it to Adrein Brody who was two years younger than Austin and that was vs Daniel Day Lewis and Jack Nicholson and guess what? Brody was playing a real person.

@oolongtea4013

Жыл бұрын

i doubt the academy voters know how young he is TBH plus paul mescal is younger than him so i think that helps butler a bit

@strayfreckles

Жыл бұрын

I think he has it in the bag

Love these videos

What will make me nervous on oscar night until the very end: EEAAO and All Quiet have nearly NO overlap within their nominations! Besides Best Picture, they share only ONE other category: Best Score. And this is even more remarkable considering the high nomination tally of both movies: There are only 17 categories, where EVERY movie could have been nominated (23 minus three shorts minus animated minus documentary minus international). All Quiet is nominated in 8 of these (plus international feature) and EEAAO in 10 (with Hsu & Curtis sharing the same category). This is just ONE (!) nomination more than competitive categories! And because they overlap in just two of them (Picture & Score), there is just ONE (!!!) category with neither EEAAO or All Quiet (Best Actor). As I said: This is quite remarkable and could be quite worrying, because we don't have any races between these two movies before Best Picture will be announced... except for Score.

@themadcat5288

Жыл бұрын

You're nervous because you think All Quiet might take BP?

@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719

Жыл бұрын

Very interesting

@manantial773

Жыл бұрын

All Quite will win score.

@havocacy

Жыл бұрын

Great observation!

I love how many categories still feel up in the air :) Thanks for sharing your predictions ! Hug from France

Thank you for saying Austin Butler. I think so, too. So many are saying Fraser, I was beginning to doubt myself!

@mcovamendez

Жыл бұрын

Gotta be him!! 🙏🙏

@queenofwater8783

Жыл бұрын

@@mcovamendez 🙏🏼. I’m going to cry either way!

@Price70

Жыл бұрын

I've literally read 36 post SAG awards that pick Austin over Frasher and like only 12 for Fraser and all of his have been based of narrative which the Academy doesn't fall for, contrary to popular belief.

@strayfreckles

Жыл бұрын

I'll be so disappointed if he doesn't win, gosh

your research is outstanding. well done!!!

The Daniels probably being like x3 oscar winners next week will be kinda insane. they will have the same amount of oscars as Spielberg.

@GL-yt

Жыл бұрын

I mean that’s what happens when you write direct and produce (and also act in) your own movie that’s also the best of the year.

@supermodel2

Жыл бұрын

@@GL-yt James L. Brooks won 3 Oscars for directing, producing and adapting Terms of Endearment and never won again.

@wylier

Жыл бұрын

I dont tink EEAAO will win best screenplay, tho.

@user-xq2lk6on9y

Жыл бұрын

@@wylier yes same. Just like Nomadland vs The father but EEAAO is bigger than nomadland so idk

Can't wait for your live reaction!

Thanks for all the coverage and insight this season fellas! Best in the game right now

I will be physically upset is Jamie wins while Stephanie Hsu is in that category. For that reason alone I’m rooting for Kerry Condon

@themadcat5288

Жыл бұрын

Eh, Condon and Basset have the best performances, Jamie is just in this race because "let's honor the past" she didn't do as good as Hsu... I just feel sorry for Hong Chau tbh

@0diego8

Жыл бұрын

idk why everyone is sleeping on Jamie, she was fantastic in EEAAO. for the comedic aspect, to the fighting scenes, to the touching moments outside the laundry mat and with hot dog fingers. yes, Stephanie was better but i like jamies performance more than angela and kerry. hong would be my third choice.

@jurney3478

Жыл бұрын

If someone you don't know winning an award makes you physically upset then you might wanna go see a shrink. Cuz that ain't normal. And Hsu is fine. This nom has done wonders for her career. That's way more important than a win.

@jurney3478

Жыл бұрын

@@themadcat5288 am I the only one who just doesn't feel bad for anyone not named Bassett or Curtis here? Hsu and Condon, especially. Their careers are gonna be popping off thanks to this nom. Sometimes the nomination is just as good, if not better than, the win itself.

@janlyrliu9697

Жыл бұрын

I watched EEAAO cold and I rem seeing Deirdre and wondering hey this looks like JLC but I don’t think she’ll act in a role like this. I need to google to discover that it was indeed her and I was so pleasantly surprised that she’d accept such a funny/neurotic/tender role all rolled up in one!

You guys gotta stream on oscar night. It’s THE night of the year that your content is almost all about. Between the awards you guys could answer superchats. Think of the $ (:

Best Supporting Actress is gonna be the race to watch for me… I feel anybody could win, I could see Kerry Condon winning like Mark Rylance did, who only won the Bafta as I remember.

@supermodel2

Жыл бұрын

I think Condon takes it as well.

@MovieJustin

Жыл бұрын

It's similar to the best actress category. If Kerry Condon wins I will cry from happiness and also be sad for Stephanie Hsu. If Michelle yeoh wins I'll also tear up from happiness but regret that Cate didn't take it for the stronger performance of the two.

AUSTIN BUTLER!!!!!!!

Totally worth refreshing your channel for the past 2 days ✌️

I can imagine The Fabelmans going home empty handed, but not Tar. I'm still predicting Cate Blanchett.

@itsbeyondme5560

Жыл бұрын

Cinemgraphy?

@encheknizam

Жыл бұрын

TAR could win Best Cinematography.

@themadcat5288

Жыл бұрын

It probably depends if the academy want to award Yeoh for her career. Cate has the best role, the most awards, but she also has 2 oscars already, the academy like to share, I can definitely see Yeoh winning for that feel good moment even if Cate deserves it + that way Tár gets cinematography

@chloeclarke9495

Жыл бұрын

@@encheknizam It should! That movie looked so good. Just scenes of Lydia driving looked amazing. It’s cinematography is being slept on.

@girlboss3426

Жыл бұрын

What about Todd?he can win best director from NOWHERE

Such a good prediction video!! I’m still extremely nervous about Original Score and I’m praying that Babylon still wins in the end as it is truly the best score of 2022 by a landslide. It’s a score that I still listen to incredibly often and it’s not only my personal favorite score of 2022, but it’s one of my personal favorite scores ever. I hope Babylon still wins Score in the end!!

@thgaminghd8197

Жыл бұрын

agreed, it would be such a farce for anything else to win! it has to be decided on what is objectively the best score (which is babylon by a landslide) rather than any external factors playing a part.

You could tell in the first 30 seconds Oscar Expert has been doing extensive research and hasn't slept much recently.. the wrinkled shirt, the head scratching, the droopy eyes. This awards season got my mans pushin p. That, my friends, is what you call visual storytelling. I respect the grind sir.

@brendanbrown8704

Жыл бұрын

His haircut is very handsome. Brother bro definitely needs to get to a barber for a trim sometime soon after the awards.😂

@jjbenavidez6

Жыл бұрын

@@brendanbrown8704 brother bro just needs to get a hair tie and go full man bun already.. I think he could pull it off

I'mma be brave and say 3. This acting ensemble was insanely good.

That JLC prediction was WILD

I miss when you used to show the box with all the precursors and check who won what. I liked the visuals

This reminds me when Cate Blanchett was nominated for Elizabeth, it happened the same thing: She won GG (drama), Critics and Bafta, clearly she was the frontrunner and Gwyneth won GG (comedy) and SAG (leading and ensemble) for Shakespeare in Love... In the end she won the Oscar. I'm not saying it will happen this year but it's a possibility and a very peculiar coincidence.

@DeeDeeFatmLoverWanab

Жыл бұрын

See 1999 was crazy cos Cate was robbed for Elizabeth for sureeeee

@fayes.3538

Жыл бұрын

Gwyneth was backed by Harvey Weinsten though...

@siyuwoaini

Жыл бұрын

@@DeeDeeFatmLoverWanab well Cate would not have won for Aviator had she already won for Elizabeth

@Junior-my9kb

Жыл бұрын

yeah but we all know that weinstein bought that oscar

I saw the Animated Shorts last night in Toronto. Audience members groaned when they saw the Apple logo on the Boy, the Mole...., and yes, the audience snickered throughout, and gasped/laughed at the "I can fly" line from Horsey. You could hear people say: Why aren't they freezing to death? What are they eating? Is this serious? If this wins, it will prove what most people already feel, that money and favouritism always win over quality and talent.

Winning the SAG Best Actor and not winning the Oscar the same year has only happened twice in almost 20 years. And it’s proven once again. The right person won this year - despite no best picture nomination. (Which should have nothing to do with an actor winning or losing btw.) Butler was fantastic but Fraser was on another level - and the Academy clearly agreed.

Hey guys, watched your stuff here and there over the years. Always love your reviews. But your Oscars breakdowns are the best, I mean big surprise knowing your channel name.. but still. Keep up the amazing work!

exxxcited

I’ll say this in regards to Original Score (only seen All Quiet, Banshees, and EEAAO personally so far), if you look at what usually wins, it’s either genre-films, quirky period pieces, or unconventional musicians. When it comes to original score, the Academy likes “weird”. I would not put it past the Academy to give the Oscar to EEAAO here, despite the huge success Babylon has had with critics awards. The two closest things we have to an industry award for Original Score are the BAFTAs (which Babylon lost to All Quiet) and a VERY recent guild award called the Society of Composers & Lyricists. It’s only been around for three years (not including this one), but two of those years won the Oscar (Joker and Soul) and the third year the Oscar winner was at least nominated (Dune lost to Encanto). This year, the ONLY two Oscar-nominated scores to be nominated for SCL was Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once. And the latter won. I’m not saying Son Lux is for sure going to win the Oscar, Babylon and All Quiet have a lot going for them and the SCL is a VERY green award to make predictions based off of. But EEAAO shouldn’t be easily dismissed, and if it DOES win, SCL could prove to be a very important precursor in the future.

I’m REALLY hoping for some surprises/upsets on Sunday! Except for Visual Effects. Hope that goes to Avatar: The Way of Water!!

@dariussalepetru6770

Жыл бұрын

Of course after won BAFTA, Critics Choice and VES

Let’s gooooo thanks fellas

There never was a race like best actress this year that I wanted to end up in a tie. I loved both Blanchett and Yeoh, tho my preference would go to Blanchett, Lydia Tar is the Scarlett O'Hara of our times and we know what that means

Tár and Cate Blanchett will steal the show. This movie is a match made in heaven for the Oscars.

@johancolli3596

Жыл бұрын

I hope so! Loved Michelle Yeoh but Tár has the performance of a lifetime!

@masivu9554

Жыл бұрын

@@johancolli3596 nah Michelle yeoh was too

@wylier

Жыл бұрын

Tar seems like a longshot for Best Picture, but Cate certainly has a good shot at Best Actress.

@QuestionMARK618

Жыл бұрын

I still think Michelle would win

@ald5194

Жыл бұрын

Pls give it to Cate!!!

imo the best score category this year was so bizarre (and i’m mainly very familiar with scores as my top category). i only think babylon vs everything everywhere should be considered. My personal top 5 would’ve been Babylon, The Batman, Devotion, Everything Everywhere, and 3000 Years of Longing

Literally already looking forward the "ridiculously early" video.

BAFTA has a significant overlap with the Academy as well as the Academy having a lot more international members in general than they ever have. SAG is often based on things that have zero to do with performance, even if by some chance they line up with BAFTA, it's for different reasons much of the time

@22:00 I like this approach to trying to track best actress, but in those examples BAFTA awards were before SAG and that metric could be used to track momentum

I love how y'all do research

Has it been taken into account that most of the times that Oscars went with BAFTA winners did so also because BAFTAs were the last televised award?? Wonder what the impact of SAG being last this year will impact oscars

Finally!!!!

PLEASE PLEASE DO A LIVE REACTION. I WOULD DEFINITELY JOIN!!!

Highway Robbery in regards to best Cinematography, Claudio Miranda (Top Gun: Maverick) should’ve won but it’s not even nominated, I would love for Mandy Walker to win ❤

Im praying for All quiet on the Western Front. It was by far my favorit film of the year. I hope it wins at least foreign film and cinematography.

@slickwill9000

Жыл бұрын

It’s definitely taking those two

@ktom5262

Жыл бұрын

My thoughts exactly. 👍

@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719

Жыл бұрын

Loved it! And I would love a Best Picture win although it probably won't happen

@encheknizam

Жыл бұрын

@@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719 EEAAO is locked for Best Picture.

I love yall, you're sharp brainy

57:41 Confused, ru picking All Quiet or Argentina??

No Lead Actor winner has been the sole win for his film without a BP nomination since Forest Whitaker for The Last King Of Scotland, which was a sweep. If you include a BP nom and look at lead actors being the only win for their film, that's still only Eddie Redmayne and Will Smith, both of which arguably were riding on the strength of their lead performance more so than The Whale overall. So I'm going Butler.

@pb.j.1753

Жыл бұрын

Jeff Bridges won for Crazy Heart in 2010.

@reecejennings9637

Жыл бұрын

@@pb.j.1753 The film also won Original Song. Two Oscars.

@isaacrichter3269

Жыл бұрын

Your only possible evidence for that is Jeff Bridges, since he's the only Best Actor winner since Forest Whitaker not to be in a Best Picture nominee...

@reecejennings9637

Жыл бұрын

@@isaacrichter3269 but his film also won Best Original Song. Leaving Whitaker, Redmayne and Smith the most recent three actors to be their films sole wins, and those wins to be in Actor. Whitaker and Smith were sweepers, and Redmayne nearly swept, not to mention Redmayne's film WAS in Picture and Adapted Screenplay. Without a sweep, screenplay nom or Picture nom, Fraser is in a worse position than those three were as their films only wins.

@reecejennings9637

Жыл бұрын

So I'm saying Austin Butler wins. His film has the potential to also win Makeup and Costume Design, is a Best Picture nominee that even made it into the BAFTA five for Best Film, and he won BAFTA best Actor, which has helped called close races that SAG didn't, such as Casey Affleck winning BAFTA/Oscar but losing SAG, and Anthony Hopkins winning BAFTA/Oscar but losing SAG

your graphic showed Argentina, 1985 as your choices for international feature even as you said "no reason to debate" - of course you meant to place them on AQOTWF - just an observation - love your channel

Finallyyyyy

Best VFX is such a close race this year. Anything can happen!!!

@maxis5650

Жыл бұрын

Actually one of the most predictable races. Anything other than Avatar would be a huge surprise.

there’s a good stat that may show some weakness for All Quiet on the Western Front in the BP race: since Braveheart (which was the second edition of SAG) there isn’t a movie that won Best Picture at the Oscars without having at least one nomination at the SAG Awards even movies with zero acting noms at the Oscars (Parasite, Return of the King) went to be nominated at the Ensemble category. Nomadland is the only one to win BP with only a single acting nomination at the SAG. I don’t know how much it weights in, but thinking about the fact the actors branch is the largest in number and has also a big overlap with the Academy, maybe it’s a good argument

@renanazevedo274

Жыл бұрын

and to complete it: BP movies that didn’t had nominations for acting at the Oscars went to win the best Ensemble Award at the SAGs. it looks like it’s a message that “we don’t support the acting in this movie individually, but we sure support it as a whole” so, this may be a milestone for All Quiet to break at the end of the day, winning BP without a massive support from the acting branch

@wylier

Жыл бұрын

Two other factors to consider: 1) its not in English. 2) The original movie version won Best Picture, way back in 1930. No remake of a previous BP winner has ever won the top award.

You guys have been working out. Right? Lookin' good.

All the films are great this year !!!

I was scared for a moment after seeing your choice in international feature film

Michelle Yeoh has a Golden Globe, SAG, and Spirit Award. The BAFTAs are often wrong when it comes to leading independent films that are starring foreign actors and actresses. Example- Supporting Actor this year. Also, the academy, which has been restructured over the past 2-3 years to become more diverse, now has 1,312 members- 988 are members of SAG. I don’t know who will win, but if it is Michelle Yeoh it is not because she was in a movie that deserved it. It was because she was truly the best actress of the year, don’t diminish it. Same for Cate. Again, about Jamie Lee- If you re-watch that film, she is in scenes that you didn’t even notice her in. She also did all of her own stunts. She brought in a picture of her tax character and all of the items on her desk from home. She truly was the best SUPPORTING actor. She promotes the hell out of that film. Now, I would love if Stephanie Hsu could win. As would Jamie, but I hope it goes to one of them.

I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but if there was ever a time for tie I can kinda see it happening for Best Lead Actresses.

@seankoontz4235

Жыл бұрын

Would love it, and it’s very possible since both movies are so well liked

Why guys your changed the prediction international feature? Any reason?.... What's happened

International Feature slide shows both of you choosing Argentina 1985. I shitted for a sec!

I love the Barry Keoghan win, I do want to see Ke huy Quan getting the oscar. But I think I would vote for Barry

All Quiet on the Western Front could definitely pull a Best Picture upset.

@itsbeyondme5560

Жыл бұрын

Maybe but i don't see it

@offical_joker3114

Жыл бұрын

Why do you think All Quiet could win best picture? I mean I wish All quiet would win, but im not really thinking it...

@pb.j.1753

Жыл бұрын

@@offical_joker3114 Because of its BAFTA sweep and popularity among older voters.

@ClassicalMusic2002

Жыл бұрын

No it couldn't. With the support EEAAO has received across the board along with the lack of a director nomination for All Quiet, this race is over.

@AnonymousGrogu

Жыл бұрын

Not a chance

Austin Butler! Michelle Yeoh!!

finally finally finally

For the Shorts, I’m actually differing with Gold Derby on all of them. My Year of Dicks, Stranger at the Gate, and An Irish Goodbye.

Just some questions : 1. So who are these voters in BAFTA that overlap with the Oscars Academy ? ( British actors & British filmmakers ? ) . I am just trying to understand why they are so influential 2. And are the voters in the international segment of the Academy that also play an important part ? ( international filmmakers & actors who are involved in Hollywood ? - people like Ang Lee & Alejandro Inarritu ?)

@Price70

Жыл бұрын

The BAFTA overlap members are professions like the academy, producers, director, cinematographers, hair and makeup stylist, production designers ect

@jona95107

Жыл бұрын

@@Price70 Thanks so much !🙏

You guys are the ESPN of Oscar predictions lol!

@Dan-gi6tf

Жыл бұрын

Lmao true 😂

I hope we get a second best actress tie

Austin Butler is definitely the best actor

RRR -Naatu Naatu ❤️❤️❤️

BP: AQOTWF DIRECTOR: TODD FIELD ORIGINAL: BANSHEES WGA: AQOTWF ACTOR: BRENDAN FRASER ACTRESS: CATE BLANCHETT SUPPORTING : KEY HUAY QUAN SUPPORTING: JAMIE LEE CURTIS EDITING: EEOAO SONG: NAATU NAATU SCORE: AQOTWF CINEMATOGRAPHY: AQOTWF PRODUCTION: ELVIS MAKE UP: THE WHALE COSTUME: ELVIS SOUND: AQOTWF

Sorry guys but you were wrong.. there was NO way Brendan wasn't winning.

How many Oscars wins, in all categories, were based on not the performance, but a recognition of legacy and even just personal sentiment from the voters? A ton! It's not always based on the actual nominated performance for that year. Just reality.

I used to think any movie that won best picture is based on realism and not by the success. It sucks but it’s true. Like The Hurt Locker beating Avatar.

Maybe it would be good to have more transparency in the grading process, like the Olympics gymnastics. We don't need to know which jury voted for which movie, but it would be nice to at least see the criterions and how much each film scored in each respective criterion, culminating to the final total score. Something to that effect.

I feel like the best picture stat is more important than having these precursors bc if a film is well liked, they would likely vote for the lead in the movie. There are so many passionate eeaao fans and how do you vote for eeaao without voting for the person who carried the whole movie.

@themadcat5288

Жыл бұрын

EEAOO wasn't carried by anyone, it's an incredibly solid film that shines in many ways if you're into it. Writing, editing, directing and acting are all pretty much on the same level in quality.

@ethantam5981

Жыл бұрын

@@themadcat5288 True, but I still feel like Michelle's acting was able to tie in the whole entire cast and of course without her, a lot of the movie wouldn't come together.

@pb.j.1753

Жыл бұрын

There are like a gazillion Best Picture winners whose lead actor/actress did not win let alone got nominated.

i also think it's important to note that harvey weinstein was behind paltrow's oscar win & streep's win for iron lady. yeoh just doesn't have the agressive harvey campaigning behind her which made cate lose.

@laurajones1773

Жыл бұрын

Harvey Weinstein is also the main reason why Saving Private Ryan lost Best Picture to Shakespeare in Love and The Social Network lost Best Picture to The King’s Speech.

@kbanghart

Жыл бұрын

Can you prove that? Basically, can you prove that his vote counted more than others, or that he coerced people into how to vote.

@EvaSofie

Жыл бұрын

But with Meryl she had the 30 years since her last win narrative, had she won a 3rd before 2012 it would be more likely that Viola would’ve won. Cate doesn’t have that narrative that Meryl had.

@oolongtea4013

Жыл бұрын

@@EvaSofie idk viola davis would've been the 2nd woc to win, to me that's a more compelling narrative. BUT michelle has the passion & is in the best picture frontrunner that might give her the edge.

@oolongtea4013

Жыл бұрын

@@kbanghart it's common knowledge he's quite an agresssive campaigner and essentially bribed voters

*my whole life has been leading up to this video.* I'm excited for the day of the oscars but also the 2024 predictions!

@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719

Жыл бұрын

👀

@brendanbrown8704

Жыл бұрын

Mine too and I’m 56! I’ve been an Oscar junky since I was probably eight years old and succumb to the mania year after year after year and fucking adore it. The Oscar expert and brother bro restore my faith in younger 35:03 and gives me hope that film as an art form will survive and new generations will continue to realize how vital and essential film is as art form. Looking forward to years and years of these guys celebrating their passion for film❤

@sigmauster4879

Жыл бұрын

@@brendanbrown8704 very good point. What was the first movie you remember winning best picture?

@brendanbrown8704

Жыл бұрын

@@sigmauster4879 The Deer Hunter is probably the first one I actually recall for sure. Memory is fuzzy before that. As a kid I didn’t know the movies but I picked up on the glamour and class and shiny gold statues being handed out to happy people! Have loved the Oscars ever since

@sigmauster4879

Жыл бұрын

@@brendanbrown8704 wow that's really cool. Great movie

You were wrong!!!! Fraser won!! I have no idea why people were so pessimistic about his chances.

everything everywhere all at once is like the most effective weapon to hunt every award in this season.

Definitely agree that “Babylon” is “If Beale Street Could Talk” for Original Score. I don’t think it’s going to happen as much as we want it to.

Women Talking is a risk but we all know it is the BEST screenplay, so every other winner is campaigning.

I rewatched Tár yesterday after 5 months and it’s a goddamn masterpiece. In a perfect world, it wins all 6 of its categories plus Nina Hoss deserved at least a nomination for Supporting Actress.

@misjathecinemalover

Жыл бұрын

So true.

@michaelangelo2192

Жыл бұрын

I would nominate Noermie Merlant in supporting actress too. She was absolutely fantastic!

@rhythmoriented

Жыл бұрын

@@michaelangelo2192 I thought she was excellent, but even better in other films in which she was overlooked: Paris, 13th District and of course Portrait of a Lady on Fire. Statistically, Nina Hoss had the best chance in a crowded category, but Cate’s masterful performance really “made” Tàr the superb film that it is.

@michaelangelo2192

Жыл бұрын

@@rhythmoriented Her giving other good (arguably better) performances doesn't matter to me. I take it year by year, and if we're talking about the 5 best supporting performances of this year, I think Noemie deserves to be there.

@rhythmoriented

Жыл бұрын

@@michaelangelo2192 I did like her a whole lot, and really appreciate your comments. Take a look at her performance in Paris, 13th District, released in the US actually in March of 2022. Really remarkable.

57:35 you put yourselves on argentina lol

It has happened before where a film has been nominated for five or more Oscars but still end up not winning. The iconic color purple, the turning point, gangs of New York, true grit, the American Hustle which was a huge contender in 2013, and Shawshank redemption along with the Wolf of Wall Street were really great films and managed to really get about four nominations ended up not winning in a single category. So I don’t think the need to reward this film is going to be a reason to give Kate her Oscar, I think it’s gonna come down to the fact that Michelle Yeon’s has the momentum pushing her to the vet like Olivia Coleman, Helen Hunter, Halle Berry, and Nicole Kidman did. I love Cate, but I think we seen her in this role before and that might work against her.

I’m still pissed about that Deadwyler snub 😢 she deserved all the flowers and awards for that performance!

@bryanalstoncoxing

Жыл бұрын

Seriously. Especially since Williams and de Armas have been such non factors all season. Deadwyler could’ve taken either of their spots

@wheretheyhaveribs55

Жыл бұрын

Not when she screams racism for not winning

@bryanalstoncoxing

Жыл бұрын

@@wheretheyhaveribs55 let me guess - if Michelle Yeoh wins on Sunday you’re going to “scream” that she only won because she’s Asian? 🙄

@stevenstevenson5303

Жыл бұрын

@@wheretheyhaveribs55 You’re the only one bringing up racism

I would, no joke, put in Puss in Boots: Last Wish and Del Toro’s Pinocchio in Adapted Screenplay over All Quiet on the Western Front and it’s crazy to think All Quiet is likely to win

@thefilmseeker

Жыл бұрын

Dub

I agree with your Oscar predictions - Austlin and Cate for the acting awards.

57:35 Ah yes, Argentina, 1985 for Best International Feature

@nic..1

Жыл бұрын

I noticed that too lol

I’m just so drawn to the All’s quiet…score. Dark and hopeless.

I will never understand why Jamie Lee Curtis has more buzz to win than Stephanie Hsu. Like y? Anyone who watches the film can see how much of a bigger role Stephanie filled, the amount of range she had, I just dont get it. Jamie was fine but her role was not important. It had no range. That isn't me saying she did a bad job, it just literally makes no sense.

@blackguyofthesouth2161

Жыл бұрын

Bigger name, it is not that obvious