So if the burglers are smart and calculate this for themselves they can hit where they are least expected.

@sonny19931

8 жыл бұрын

+Merto6 That's true, but if burglars were smart, they probably would get another job anyway. That may be the case for terrorist attacks, tough

@pavolgocik8917

8 жыл бұрын

+sonny19931 smart and moral are two different things..

@sonny19931

8 жыл бұрын

I agree. But there are much smarter ways of making money illegally, breaking into house is probably one of the dumbest and riskiest ones. I can't imagine there can be many burglars who look up crime algorithms

@sonny19931

8 жыл бұрын

There are many, many, many possible ways in wich a terrorist organizations could have disastrous consequences. We expect them in big capital cities and especially during big events, but they could purposefully choose to blow up a random supermarket in a small town with hundreds of people in it, for instance. There's a massive catholic event in this months in Rome, but there's been no sign so far of terrorist activity, and I suspect there will be none for this very reason, the place and time is way too predictable.

@numbah12time

8 жыл бұрын

+Merto6 That would be Wall Street and global economics.

Shout out to the NSA employee watching this because it has terrorism in the title!

@Triantalex

8 ай бұрын

??

Hannah again! Oh yes!

@Feynstein100

8 жыл бұрын

+Marko Kostic I love Hannah. I'll see myself out now.

@An.Individual

8 жыл бұрын

+Marko Kostic I can actually feel my trousers getting tighter

@unvergebeneid

8 жыл бұрын

Chainsaw Dude That's called overeating and Hannah really has nothing to do with it.

@essi2

8 жыл бұрын

+Penny Lane Unless this video somehow inspired him to overeat.

@iamthefrankleton

8 жыл бұрын

+Marko Kostic 9:45

The mathematics of Minority Report

@adrianflo6481

8 жыл бұрын

+Enzo Capistrano not really, since they see into the future and sing weird swedish songs and swap eyes :P

@bbugl

8 жыл бұрын

+Enzo Capistrano I think that there's a notable difference between minority report, were specific persons are selected by the precogs to be detained, and this kind of math were the police basically is told to patrol in a specific area more often.

@JohnQPublic11

8 жыл бұрын

+Benjamin Bugl - Give it time. Just around the next corner is a world that will make *1984* look like a church picnic!

@MIQofDMC

8 жыл бұрын

+Enzo Capistrano more like Person of Interest since this is math, not psychics

@djdedan

8 жыл бұрын

+Enzo Capistrano seems like you and the host totally missed the point of Minority Report... predicting where crimes may occur versus arresting someone for a crime they have not committed are two different things...

Can we please have more mathematicians and scientists in politics? People like Hannah Fry, who understand the statistics and scientific basis behind events and can make sensible policies that don't just depend on emotional statements and telling people to have "pride for their nation".

@jessemastenbroek7343

8 жыл бұрын

+E “Anonymous Nerdfighter” Hernandez usually the type of people who like politics shouldn't get into politics. The ones who really know what they're talking about don't have a political attitude, which is a shame really.

@puupipo

8 жыл бұрын

+E “Anonymous Nerdfighter” Hernandez DFTBA.

@weavehole

8 жыл бұрын

Have you seen this (or similar) video on evidence based policy? /u6mDhW0WvUE

@weavehole

8 жыл бұрын

Not sure if my link is showing up. If you're interested do a google /youtube search for 'evidence based policy ben goldacre'. :)

@nicosmind3

8 жыл бұрын

+E “Anonymous Nerdfighter” Hernandez What about economists? You get statistical analysis in econ courses

Repeat Victimisation really is a thing. I had my laptop burgled a few years ago and some theives (presumably the same ones) tried to break in again 2 weeks later. Thankfully the second time they were unable to as I'd taken extra security precautions. I think an added reason to steal again from the same person is that after a few weeks they will have probably just replaced the item that was stolen, probably on an insurance claim.

@animal0mother

3 жыл бұрын

Thieves need to be careful if they don't want a repeat of something like the Byron David Smith killings. After more than a half dozen times getting burgled, someone might park their car far away and quietly sit in the dark with a rifle...

"That was nice work you did there. But my statistics say, there's another settlement that will need your help."

@PelletProof

7 жыл бұрын

"Let me mark it on your map with this red square."

@yourbuddyunit

2 жыл бұрын

The Garvey-Minute Model!

The chances of comments containing irrelevant sexual remarks greatly increase after a video like this, with a k_0 of 0.3 and an omega of two weeks.

@cpgvonc7568

8 жыл бұрын

+Edan Coll Mu was the background level. Try and keep up :D Or perhaps something in the video distracted you?

@brytonbehrend7906

8 жыл бұрын

+CPG VonC kek

@edancoll3250

8 жыл бұрын

+CPG VonC You're absolutely right! Fixed it.

@robertjencks3679

8 жыл бұрын

But with such a high mu for numberphile anyway, the inpact of the kick is relatively small. (psst it's a joke)

@IamGrimalkin

8 жыл бұрын

Omega is measured in inverse weeks though, not weeks.

I love numberphile. thank you Brady for making the videos

As a part time cat burglar I am not happy with this research.

@boycotgugle3040

7 жыл бұрын

Get the same app as the police and stay clear of the location of highest probability^^

@lifexpansionpack

7 жыл бұрын

The place you should rob is the inverse.

@ccswelding1599

6 жыл бұрын

what do you do with all the cats?

@thomaslecky5301

6 жыл бұрын

Watch to the end haha

@alveolate

6 жыл бұрын

while burglars can use the app to avoid cops, it doesn't help them with the _underlying principle_ that led them to be predictable in the first place: repeat victimization. iow, burglars were only predictable because they were rational creatures who would prefer to rob the same houses. robbing new houses would be more difficult and still lead to less successful burglaries.

Her voice makes me want to get some tea.

@rafaelrandom500

3 жыл бұрын

Baritone voice. 😄

Saw your lecture on this at Leeds uni back in November - great stuff, thanks!

I could listen to Hannah for hours, she has such a beautiful voice.

@pynchia4119

2 жыл бұрын

"voice" yes

For people who don't think Math is Practical: See this people? This is why mathematics is important.

@SuperSilkyJohnson

8 жыл бұрын

+신채범 I can think of better examples, engineering for instance.

@yungml

8 жыл бұрын

+신채범 To be honest, it is not.

@neddyladdy

8 жыл бұрын

+신채범 How many targets of your comment do you think saw it?

@DavidKotschessa

8 жыл бұрын

+AshyLarry engineering is boring

@alveolate

6 жыл бұрын

this isn't just maths tho... it is, more specifically, statistics. and stats is in _everything_ .

This was a super video video. I really enjoyed it. Thanks, Brady.

I had an absolutely shite day today but this video raised my spirits a little. I love how well Hannah Fry P.M. (Proper Mathematician ) covers a complex topic without making my head hurt.

This is incredibly fascinating. The application of probability and mathematics to model human behavior (although limited in scope here) reminds me of Isaac Asimov's The Foundation Series, where a school of math, psychohistory, was used to predict behaviors of large groups!

I am a Security Officer and I see that effect in the amount of graffiti on different sites and structure type. I also recommend different landscaping features to minimize reoccurrence.

Really really great episode! I'm quite intrigued by the idea of applying maths to crime fighting

Mind. Blown. Great description, much appreciated.

5:50 Hannah is part of the Resistance? Wow!

Wow, an actual formula on Numberphile! Keep 'em coming. :)

Such a great application of math. Love the video as usual!

Great video, thanks. Liked the style and like the information.

Today I had an exam in statistics. this video being one day earlier would have gain me 15 points.

@Electroblud

8 жыл бұрын

+Amit Moryossef Your profile picture fits your comment very well xD

@adrianflo6481

8 жыл бұрын

+Amit Moryossef it would be time for you to change your profile pic then.

@AmitMoryossef

8 жыл бұрын

Maanuueel42 \m/(^_^) Adrian Flo Its an amazing picture! (And I am ugly). But yeah, a day earlier this video would prevent me retaking the exam. (75-85 is not an option! never an option!)

@adrianflo6481

8 жыл бұрын

Amit Moryossef that's the success kid... you seamed to have very little atm.

@Electroblud

8 жыл бұрын

Amit Moryossef You're lucky you are allowed to retake exams you've already passed, that isn't the case in my University... :/

The Mathematics of Crime and Terrorism: Lesson 1: Credit Default Swaps Lesson 2: Derivatives Lesson 3: Collateralized debt obligation

@unflexian

4 жыл бұрын

one of these is not like the others (hint: it's 2)

Loved that question at the very end!!!

I really enjoyed this topic! Excellent video :)

Hey +Numberphile great video.

@_jenaissante_

8 жыл бұрын

Every of their videos are great!

@DivyamBajaj

8 жыл бұрын

+Wong Ethan that's correct dude

I'd hate to write the letter home to the mother of a soldier who was killed by their own horse. Set off to glory and duty, died in slow, brutish pain and embarrassment.

@Holy_hand-grenade

6 жыл бұрын

Trenchcoat1Sword you come home on your horse, or... or.... on your horse goddamnit.

@oliverwilson11

5 жыл бұрын

Not necessarily slow A bunch of them probably got kicked in the head and died almost immediately

That was actually really interesting! Very well explained. Great video!

love this. more stats and probability videos please!

An interesting question: Is there a correlation between how widely known these equations and principles are, and how effectively they can still be implemented? I mean, if burglars know these equations, would they change their behavior such that it no longer fits the equations?

What if a burglary gang got an illicit copy of the app, then checked it before planning a heist, and deliberately went somewhere on the other side of town? Like Asimov's "psychohistory," one of the conditions for accuracy is that the population being studied do not know what the predictions are (see the Foundation trilogy and its add-on novels for more details).

@jukka-pekkatuominen4540

6 жыл бұрын

Or when the police are consentrating on a certain area they allow people to commit crimes in other parts of the city?

That was a wonderful video! I would not have found it without an email notification because of the thumb nail.

Great to see how numberphile mentions/explains something from my A-level course this year

Hannah Fry!! Yay!!

This is lambda λ

@turun_ambartanen

8 жыл бұрын

+someuser17 its also a bit like a elvish H ^^

@MarkCidade

8 жыл бұрын

+someuser17 Try writing it without lifting the pen.

@MarkCidade

8 жыл бұрын

***** probably because math symbols aren't cursively strung into words

@MrShagification

8 жыл бұрын

+SwatTeamExit Well, making lowercase lambda look right takes a bit of effort, but I don't think anything else in the alphabet is difficult.

@MarkCidade

8 жыл бұрын

***** I know. That's why it looks different!

Very interesting vid , thanks numberphile :)

Nice video! Great explanations!

And some people still think maths is useless ... so irriatating. As a mathematician, it bothers me a lot.

@smaakjeks

8 жыл бұрын

+Jakub Pekárek People think maths is useless??

@jakubpekarek6400

8 жыл бұрын

+Smaakjeks K Of course. Most people think mathematicians just sit somewhere, do their thing, and in doing so produce nothing of use to common folks.

@lothiel

8 жыл бұрын

+Jakub Pekárek some maths can be quite "useless" but that shouldn't bother you so much. Some branches of math don't have much to do with real life at all but that doesn't make it not worth studying. As my abstract algebra professor said "it's easy to judge math by its utility or applicability...however, I sincerely believe that mathematics should be learned simply because it is beautiful." I and some other pure maths students take pride in that our subject matter is "useless," in real life, it means my explorations in math aren't limited by what exists right in front of me, I can live and think in the highly abstract.

@jakubpekarek6400

8 жыл бұрын

Anthony Anguiano And that is the completely wrong view. Maths can be studied just for the sake of itself, and it is. But there is no field not worth of study. Maths is complexely interconnected beyond belief and the most unreal parts of it often yield the most useful results. Prime numbers -> banking security and encryption encryption breaking -> automated translation Imaginary numbers -> necessary insight to formulate electomagnetic field dynamics, theory of relativity, etc. Quaternions (even more imaginary numbers) -> 3D computer graphics Matrices -> all of computer graphics infinitelly huge matrices powered to infinite powers -> Google Different sizes of infinities -> all of modern calculus (and therefore all of ingeneering) and statistics (and therefore weather forecastin and financial stability) stufy of knots -> genetics Convex shapes in riduculously high number of dimensions -> the only method known to organize post deliveries, plane shedules etc. whithout it taking years to do It sometimes takes more than hundred of years for art to be appreciated, and it never showed practical applications even then and no one claimes it to be useless.Virtually every field of maths that was 50 years ago though of as useless or inapplicable or surreal is now essential for our lives. Saying some parts are unworthy of studying is to be utterly shortsighted. People should know better by now. Sure, sometimes it takes 50 or more years to apply something, so what? Better to have before needing than the other way around. And you never know the results you might get until you go and explore the field.

@k35magnum

8 жыл бұрын

+Jakub Pekárek I don't think people think maths as a whole is useless. I think it's more that people think *"advanced"* maths has little use in the normal day to day i.e. going to and from work, getting groceries, eating, shitting, sleeping, etc. Basic maths like addition, multiplication and division are often used, but I know personally, I haven't had use for algebra or knowing how to calculate the area under a curve since high school (which has been a while). If they do think it's out right useless, they're just ignorant and well.. that's their problem :)

People who know this level of math would probably not commit small-scale burglary. As another said, it's probably more likely that the unscrupulous mathematician would turn to finance, rather than violent crime.

@rickstevens1167

4 жыл бұрын

Or the unscrupulous Physicist

Hannah, you are a great inspiration for me.

That was absolutely fascinating.

wait, @0:10 did she say "my PhD student"... is she a supervisor? how old is she?

@jonathanschossig1276

7 жыл бұрын

30

The one weakness I see with giving such types of data to agencies such as police forces, etc. is that it creates the potential for those agencies to anticipate that certain events will happen at specific time periods or locations, etc. That means they may change something about their normal patroling, etc. In a sense, they are contributing to the creation of the events.

@uthoshantm

7 жыл бұрын

At In a way or another we are always contributing to the creation (or non creation for that matter) of an event.

Brady that closing question definitely induced the "next-research-paper" look!

Just became much more interested in mathematics! Great job Hanna.

Never seen a lambda looking like that before.

@XenophonSoulis

5 жыл бұрын

λ, by a Greek. And μ by the way. By the way, it's totally normal.

MORE HANNAH FRY, PLEASE. CAPS INTENDED.

This was very well explained! Thank you :)

Really enjoyed this video, very interesting

The last question at the end was awesome :D Could criminals use then mathematics to plan crime hahaha, that is of course possible but come on :D

lol that's one funny Lambda.

@XenophonSoulis

5 жыл бұрын

λ, by a Greek. And μ by the way. By the way, it's totally normal.

Amazing, more of this please.

The graph Hannah draws in the beginning is more like a normal distribution. Poisson distributions tend to be pushed towards the left end most of the time. It does approach the normal bell-curve for larger values of lambda but most of the times it is more asymmetric.

Psychohistory.

@vojtechjanku2534

8 жыл бұрын

It's getting real :O

@h3nnn4n

8 жыл бұрын

+apinakapinastorba I hope the second foundation will help us.

@RedTriangle53

8 жыл бұрын

Yay for Foundation references!

@FlawlessLogicTube

8 жыл бұрын

And have them be the ruling class at the end of the Seldon Plan?!

@FrenchCelt

8 жыл бұрын

+FlawlessLogic Not if Galaxia happens.

Math has no emotion and doesn't care. I love it.

I will watch the entirety of any video that Hannah is in. I'll learn anything that smile and laugh wants to teach me!

Hannah! It makes so much sense, thank you.

Yes, yes I have wondered Hannah. Many many times.

@rodluvan1976

8 жыл бұрын

What does that mean?

@SamuraiMasenko

8 жыл бұрын

+rodluvan1976 ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

That is not any lambda I've ever seen.

@Armaganth

5 жыл бұрын

It might be lambda, but it's definitely not ordinary ! ... I'll see myself out.

Thanks this really helped me with my Mathematics class.

Thanks, great vid. I remember studying this distribution but the text just assumed you would know which are normal and which are not.

5:52 How is that a lambda?? λ ≠ ત

@XenophonSoulis

5 жыл бұрын

This λ is totally normal.

The poisson distribution is not symetrical: I.e. The average and the modus are not coincidental!

@thomasborgsmidt9801

7 жыл бұрын

It is NOT trivial! I suspect furthermore the distribution is not a poisson; but a hyperpoisson, which gives a far more bundelt distribution! The problem with statistics is the designation of the WRONG function. It was disasterous in the Banking Crisis, where they took a normal distribution as describtive of major meltdowns in the financial sector - which is demonstrably WRONG! There are far more rare and catastrofic events than the normal distribution predicts.

We need some of this in Atlanta, GA right now. sheeeesh

I officially fell in love at 7:45, and now I need to watch the rest of the video again.

@fahrenheit2101

3 жыл бұрын

Wtf

Hari Seldon would find this most interesting :D

@ManRudBih

6 жыл бұрын

Hari Seldon will find this most interesting!

@zappawoman5183

5 жыл бұрын

A wild Asimov fan appears!

Hari Seldon approves.

Really interesting video!

Thanks for introducing me to my new favorite mathematician :)

Numbers (TV Show) anyone?

@imfrommanndame

8 жыл бұрын

+Feynstein100 Least charming show in its genre.

@Nightraven26

8 жыл бұрын

+imfrommanndame what are the others?

@imfrommanndame

8 жыл бұрын

Dora the Explorer, to name one among the factuous shows aimed at children.

@SebastianLopez-nh1rr

8 жыл бұрын

+imfrommanndame no need to be rude

@Nightraven26

8 жыл бұрын

imfrommanndame damn it, it doesn't air in my country. :/

notification squad

@milanstokic1904

8 жыл бұрын

notification squad indeed... haha

Brady's question at the end is brilliant :D

always interesting. Thanks

The initial distribution looks more like a Gaussian then a Poissonian, for the Poissonian the mean value does not correspond to it's most probable value. Interesting results otherwise!

Woo! Lambda!

I'm not sure if I like grimes or Hannah's videos more. Grimes just acts ridiculously excited about math which makes me happy but Hannah does useful math which I like

This is pretty amazing. Exciting to see why we should pay attention in algebra

A grill !!!

@NightDoge

8 жыл бұрын

Not new.

@destroyer2496

5 жыл бұрын

Where is the grill?

Seldon plan is happening.

This is awesome!

I happened to come here on 3rd feb 2020. exactly after 4 years when this video was out.

That is the most terribly written lambda I have ever seen xD

@user-ws6ik1ch5c

5 жыл бұрын

Actually it's a nice one (I'm Greek)

@user-ws6ik1ch5c

4 жыл бұрын

@harsh And ν (nu) squared. Happy ν year!

Hannah

@kookyflukes9749

6 жыл бұрын

Erickson Giesel Müller >9

This was a really cool video.

Beautiful!

I expected more comments on this video in the style of Hannah Fry isn't in my bed, and that's the worst crime... I'm positively surprised that hasn't happened yet.

I didn't come here for the math

This is very very interesting, the idea that you can apply math to the subject of crime in such a way never appeared to me.

I graduated with a political science degree and now I REALLY regret not looking more into maths. Thank you this is fantastic.

The real crime is that I can't take Hannah out for coffee. BAM!

@Holy_hand-grenade

6 жыл бұрын

De Jure Claims why not?

Predictive policing (mentioned at the end of the video) is used by police forces to justify targeting minorities of many kinds. The equations suggest an area is likely to have crime, so more police are sent there, inevitably catching more criminals _because more police were sent there_ . This then feeds back into predictive policing algorithms making them more likely to justify the biases of the humans who have to act on them.

@GonzoTehGreat

5 жыл бұрын

You've assumed a positive correlation between the number of police on patrol and the crime rate which doesn't necessarily exist.

@GonzoTehGreat

3 жыл бұрын

@@alynames6486 Prove it.

Really interesting topic.

Her handwriting is the most beautiful thing I have ever seen! It`s as beautiful as Euler`s Formula! I'm jealous.

Smart - check Beautiful - check Fallin' in love - check.

@TehGordonFreeman

8 жыл бұрын

+N3m1 Ring - check

@Rhino123freak

8 жыл бұрын

+Gordon Freeman heartbreak - check

@Gandaleon

8 жыл бұрын

+Rohan Pawar I second that. Ouch.

@APaleDot

8 жыл бұрын

+N3m1 Knives - Check. Rope - Check. Dagger - Check. Chains - Check. Rocks - Check. Laser beams - Check. Acid - Check. Body bag - Check. Murmaider Murmaider Murmaider Murmaider

@UNSKIALzPSN

7 жыл бұрын

N3m1 Dude, keep it to yourself... Everyone else is... Have some respect and focus on the video's topic

"Maths" will never sound right to me.

@VicvicW

7 жыл бұрын

M. Scott Veach MATHSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

@mscottveach

7 жыл бұрын

Vicvic W Oh, I take it back. That worked. Totally sounds normal now.

@XenophonSoulis

5 жыл бұрын

It's *Mathematics,* deriving from *Μαθηματικά.*

Interesting video. I was wondering about the earthquakes though, wouldn't it be better to treat the main shock and after shocks as a single longer event? Would you still see a correlation between events then?

Fascinating.