Love this website and the fantasy.

Watching Sam Long’s KZread channel over the past year, I actually think that San Francisco is his targeted ‘2024 Regular Season’ “A-Race”. He actually took his offseason in September last year and has been building since October (Indian Wells, not Pucon 70.3) was his first ‘2024’ race and he has long planned to shut the engine down by mid June, with a view to doing that same build (off season, base, build and then peak at the end of October - for Kona - and aim to hold that peak for up to another 6-weeks to finish off the ‘2024 Championship’ season in style. In other words, but starting super early last fall, he is packing two racing seasons into one calendar year: which can only work if he has a full shutdown and restart in the middle of the year). Anyhoo - I have not seen any evidence of him shifting his focus away from peaking in San Francisco to Cairns: all he is doing is using his huge middle distance training fitness and giving a ‘weaker’ ironman field a crack in the hopes of securing a Kona slot. He had a trial run in Maryland Ironman last year: which was done immediately after a very hectic 6 weeks (Birth of Leo, PTO US Open, Singapore PTO Open, & Worlds 70.3 in Finland). His mistake in Maryland was to think he could actually break 2.30 for the marathon and he cooked himself in the back half. However, he composed himself and held on to a creditable 3rd place and a reasonable marathon split. He is much better prepared this year. He is much better shape now. He wont be as exhausted from all the ‘stuff’ that he was dealing with in that 6 week period leading into Maryland. He hasn’t changed his training very much at all (ie. his ‘Time Trial Tuesday’ efforts are just a progression that he has been working on throughout the early part of the year, and he has only done 1 or 2 long runs over 20 miles). That is why I’m picking Sam for the win. He may not has the heat adaptation advantage as he did in Miami and Singapore but his power is incredible and he is just running faster than Magnus. This is a very punchy course and I think Van Riel will find out that there is a difference between being able to simply sit on power numbers on a flat course and executing a middle distance race where there are a number of decent climbs each lap: that 750M climb on the way back at 8% grade will take it out of the legs over the course of 6 laps & generally this looks like a course where you have to be on the peddles all day long. Before the second lap of the run in Singapore my long standing prediction was that Alistair was going to win San Francisco, London and Ibiza before resetting himself to try to win the GF two months later; however, he doesn’t seem to be doing the speed work on the run because of that ankle problem. For me, it is a key consideration for Alastair’s hopes that he has back to back training blocks on the run without injury. I think he will do OK (assuming he is now running freely), but he may likely lack the legs in the last 8km. That being said, he’s my pick for 3rd: he is super strong in the swim and id expect his biking to be at another level again, given the extra investment he’s made in training and gravel bike racing (to compensate for lower run volume and intensity). So while I think Sam and Magnus will run him down, I think he will hold string for 3rd. In the women’s field, I’m picking Ash to beat Taylor. Mainly on race craft and a mid-season high on her run speed. Kat Matthews for third. I think the air travel from Frankfurt (via London presumably) to Sean Fran is an easy one (even though it is directly east to west and hence several days will be needed to adjust to time zones) and she is as strong as an ox. 100km on the bike in IM Frankfurt barely qualifies as pre race zone 2 workout for her. Emma Palant will ruin down the rest of the field, by Finlay may hold onto 5th.

@andrewmetcalfe9898

18 күн бұрын

Actually- I forgot to mention India Lee. This is a strong person’s course and India is that in spades. I’m sticking with my picks, by India could upset the apple cart again.

Thank you for the video! Do you? Do you have place where you think spectators that are coming across the bridge should go or would have the best access and view of the race?

1. Kyle Smith / Taylor Knibb 2. Marten Van Riel / Ashleigh Gentle 3. Mathis Margirier / India Lee 4. Javier Gómez / Paula Findlay 5. Alistair Brownlee / Laura Philipp I might be quite biased with Javi but I think he can perform top level. He will definitely swim front pack and come back running. Besides, I can ser that his wrist injury can play a role in Magnus' race. Mu dark horses Aaron Royle and Ben Kanute for the male and Imogen Simmonds and Marta Sánchez for the female.

All respect for Javier, but I would be suprised if he finishes top 10. It is Ali’s time!

My prediction Brownlee won’t even make the top 5

@thedailytri

18 күн бұрын

No wayyyy 😜

@stevenleslie8354

18 күн бұрын

Let's be honest, Brownlee hasn't done anything of note for a while - other than break down.

@guyholbrow7207

18 күн бұрын

He just hasn’t got enough run training in him. I think he might head out onto the run first, but then likely to fade; but I do hope I’m wrong!

@joseenriquemercadomercado8939

18 күн бұрын

Want to put money on that statement??

@adamreebs2585

18 күн бұрын

Should’ve put money. Him and Gomez are done. Completely. It’s a whole new ballgame now

Sorry Travis you got them wrong this time:::::) As mentioned you got it wrong. I thought you would better since you close to the ground:)

Ashleigh Gentle for the win ! 🇦🇺 ❤👍

My prediction Javi, Alistair, Aaron Royle, Ben Kanute and Martin will come out on front swim group, Javi and Ali will break away and Alistair will lap the field on the bike course. If conditions stay cold will benefit his run. This may be the day for Ali!!!

Laura Phillip for the win on this course

@seaamros

18 күн бұрын

with this swim , Laura is in big trouble catching up don´t see her a factor at all

Why will the swim be so hard? Seems like they are swimming with the current. Rooting for Taylor and Paula like always. Won't even try to pick in the men, anyone's game.

@thedailytri

18 күн бұрын

Just from what I have seen. It is freezing and choppy and the athletes have to be at transition at 4am 🤯

@trbeyond

18 күн бұрын

Cold, choppy and very few sighing buoys. Did I mention cold and choppy?!

@MarceloG..

18 күн бұрын

@@thedailytri I think they are all freaking, but will end up saying it wasn't that bad. At least I hope for their own good

@MarceloG..

18 күн бұрын

@@trbeyond good point about choppy and bouys. Will be fun to watch

Why is everyone saying the water is freezing but no one is saying what temperature it is?

@vozzen

18 күн бұрын

I looked it up. It’s around 15 degrees celsius, which isn’t even that cold with a wetsuit. But perhaps I am too used to Scandinavian temperatures

Sam Long is very confident and rightly so. But looking at the swim conditions namely the chop, will screw him. He is gonna be behind big time. Also tired of all the OMG americans going on about the cold water.

Agree with women side, disagree with men. Too many dark horses, too many people with unreliable performances. I vote for Ditlev for the first or the second and Sam for the third. I'm surprised that there's no Laidlaw and not a peep from him.

@thedailytri

18 күн бұрын

Some times you have to risk it! ;)

@thedailytri

18 күн бұрын

Ironman just released a podcast with him!

@elka2palka

18 күн бұрын

@@thedailytri and we should discuss LCB going to the Nice!

@andrewmetcalfe9898

18 күн бұрын

Laidlow is doing Im Vittoria next month as his Kona validation race. San Francisco was always one of his two T-100 races that he was not going to do (the other being Las Vegas). On his You Tube channel he seems to be in the middle of his big volume ramp - building into the second half of the year. This was always his plan. Back in February he said that he only expected to contend for a T-100 podium by Ibiza (which rounds out his Europe based preparation before flying straight to Hawaii after the race for his last 4 week specific preparation). Singapore was s step back for sam (he wanted to secure two top 10 finishes in the T-100 BEFORE turning his attention to Ironman preparation), but otherwise, his season seems to be on track for his one goal - Kona.

@elka2palka

18 күн бұрын

@@andrewmetcalfe9898 thank you! Yeah, he wants to defend his title which is understandable.

ALISTAIR for the win!!!