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@jgcalder

Ай бұрын

,😂

@jgcalder

Ай бұрын

Z,,,

@jgcalder

Ай бұрын

Z,,

@jgcalder

Ай бұрын

,

@bunk95

Ай бұрын

Humans that want to ensure youre waste till death?

I always love to listen to Mark Galeotti's take on the war in Ukraine. IMO, he's got his head on straight and provides excellent insight to the black box which is muscovy.

Mr Galeotti is right on Macron domestic motivations, but it baffles me how he completely misses the point on the strategic ambiguity. For all the reason previously mentioned, Russia is already struggling against a weakened Ukraine, essentially on its own now. France + Baltic States + Poland really entering the game is a major HEADACHE for Putin. It will NOT require much from even France alone, to help Ukraine tip the scale, and make every problem in Russia that bit much worse for that bit much longer. And it's a deep mistake from an analyst to think a 5th French Republic president couldn't get french troops in Ukraine. Putin knows it and will hesitate before calling that bluff. Especially given Macron contrarian unpredictability. Ambiguity crept in already. The huge rise of hybrid attacks on France and the preference from Kremlin propagandists to nuke Paris over London attest to that.

@crose7412

Ай бұрын

@grecko You're already mis-remembering! Mark didn't say France couldn't send in troops; he said they haven't (therefore they probably have no desire to do so and it's just a bluff).

@enemyofthestatewearein7945

Ай бұрын

@@crose7412 I wouldn't assume at all it's a bluff. Its also about France's growing relationship with Ukraine and Moldova. With the USA now failing to step up, France as the second largest weapons exporter is looking to position themselves as the preferred European security partner for Eastern European countries.

@crose7412

Ай бұрын

@@enemyofthestatewearein7945 So you predict French boots will land on Ukrainian ground in which month/year?

@mebsrea

Ай бұрын

Good comment.

@2639theboss

Ай бұрын

@@crose7412 He's not misremembering. Mark said in a somewhat scoffing tone that Macron is basically bluffing and positioning himself for domestic politics. France sending troops right now isn't necessary for strategic ambiguity to be a factor. It didn't work before because not only did the US take virtually all real options off the table publicly, but they weren't even providing anything with Ukraine to begin with. In the 8 year timespan between the first invasion and the second invasion, the US never even broke 100million in weapon sales to Ukraine, and it took almost 4 years to just sell Javelins. That's not strategic ambiguity, and using that as an example of why it doesn't work is utterly asinine.

Two well spoken, well informed gentlemen. A breath of fresh air on the internet. thank you.

@elbibwen3019

Ай бұрын

🥴😵😵‍💫

@user-kj5bf9rm9d

Ай бұрын

usually with the word "gentleman" i smell a stinky propagandists 😂😂😂😂👍👍👍👍

Greetings to putlers Trollbotboys

@stream2watch

Ай бұрын

I hope they never get to see 2025 🤣

@seancidy6008

Ай бұрын

It is simply not true there is convincing evidence for the apartment bombings being an inside job.

As the Russian economy has become more focused on the war, Russians have also become unsustainably reliant on war-related payments. The government refuses to curtail subsidized mortgages because of a powerful lobby of property developers. More than 60% of loans are issued to people who will spend more than half their income repaying them. Increasingly, the loan programs are being accessed by recipients of war-related payments. If the war ended, it would become extremely difficult for them to service their loans, especially in the face of rising prices.

@occamraiser

Ай бұрын

there is no punchline to your critique, because all this does is increase inflation - and it will take 5 years for russia to get to 30%+ inflation - and all that will do anyway is drive more poor people into the army!

@christianevanherck6023

Ай бұрын

@@occamraiser Inflation is fast becoming a problem. Russia’s inflation rate has already surpassed 7%, forcing the Bank of Russia to maintain interest rates at 16%. Despite these high interest rates, businesses and households continue to borrow, indicating high inflation expectations. This means that the key rate will not return to single digits any time soon. More Russians being driven into the army and joining security forces also means they will be state dependents. This carries economic risks, as it obliges the government to continue to make expensive payments to these groups even when faced with budgetary challenges. These payments are an economic time bomb: high wages are extremely difficult to reduce, and doing so for the main pillar of Putin’s rule-the army and security forces-is not an option.

@InnocentiusLacrimosa

Ай бұрын

​@@christianevanherck6023I highly doubt the official russian inflation figures. It is pretty likely that inflation is close to the 16% interest rate.

On the question of Russia's ability to rearm; it won't be 5 or 10 years to get back to Jan 2022 levels. They're burning through 50 years of soviet massive production. I doubt if they could get to that level in 100 years. The Russian federation is NOT the soviet union.

@pierrethomas7376

Ай бұрын

Absolutly right, there is no way they get back one day to 2022 levels.

@PKowalski2009

Ай бұрын

But they do not need to win the war to bring immense suffering and loss. The 2022 attack showed that the Russian government does not calculate rationally and can trigger a war with no chance of victory.

@StPiter111

Ай бұрын

Russia increased its weapon production for 22 times during last two years😎

@markb8468

Ай бұрын

@@StPiter111 Sure. Irrelevant because they'll never match the combined capacity of 60 yrs of USSR production.

@StPiter111

Ай бұрын

@@markb8468 Russia started a mass production of new generation super heavy FAB3000 bombs recently. Russia's plants produce three million shells annually now. UVZ plant supplys 1500 tanks per year to Russian army. That's good enough for now😎

Always interesting listening to Mark Galeotti.

There is no mechanism for Russia to be apologetic for the invasion of Ukraine. The government and the people both hold each other hostage in the 'Russia as a great imperial power" project.

@mddell24

Ай бұрын

Very contorted - ha

@bordedup546

Ай бұрын

Putin's government and Z-supporters* Other than that, there are plenty of possibilities where peace is possible for Russia

@moestietabarnak

Ай бұрын

I'm waiting for the USA to apologize for Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yugoslavia, Siria, Vietnam, etc ...AND Ukraine, as IT IS a war completely manufactured in Washington!

@williamjackson5942

Ай бұрын

@@moestietabarnak Are you really that ignorant? Really??

@gianmarcobuzzotti4517

Ай бұрын

​@@moestietabarnakIm waiting the Russians to apologize for Cechenia, Georgia,Afghanistan, the deportations of the tartari from Crimea and not only them, l Holodomor, the gulag and yes, the actual war in Ukraine!

Im feeling little more positive after this conversation 👍

Wow, this guy is both extremely smart and fantastically clear. Possibly the best interviewee I've seen this whole war.

The parallels to the 1930s are accurate (regardless of what the speaker is saying). History may not repeat itself but it rhymes very well.

@crose7412

Ай бұрын

@johnkarpiscak1134 It's a silly phrase. Lime and crime rhyme but they're not similar.

@seancidy6008

Ай бұрын

There were two world wars I believe, and WW2 started very differently to the way WW1 had. Indeed one could say that the lessons of WW1 were taken as being the key to preventing another war, but actually those lessons were not applicable and the misdirected desire to avoid trouble led to WW2. It follows that WW3 might well start because people think the best way to prevent it is to apply the lessons of the 30s.@@crose7412

@kurteibensteiner2736

Ай бұрын

@@crose7412 It's called a metaphor and it takes some phantasy to understand.

@crose7412

Ай бұрын

@@kurteibensteiner2736 Nope, that is not an example of an metaphor. It's possibly an aphorism.

@kurteibensteiner2736

Ай бұрын

@@crose7412 It's definitively a metaphor! "Metaphors are a form of figurative language, which refers to words or expressions that mean something different from their literal definition." (Grammarly) History doesn't rhyme literlly but metaphorically! It's also an aphorism, but that wasn't the point to make referring to your first post. "An aphorism is a concise, terse, laconic, or memorable expression of a general truth or principle." (Wikipedia)

Similarities between Current Europe and 1935 is about the delusional attitude of the actors: Putin is like Stalin or Hitler in the sense that they lived in an informational bobble of their own making, separated from reality. Like Hitler he was thinking Russia could just keep pushing eating up it`s neighbours without facing the consequence, thinking it could overrun Ukraine in 3 days because he was projecting his own self perception on the Ukrainian Citizens: it was a well known fact, this was not the case, but he didn`t believe the reports. Like Stalin he rules a Russia where any residue of Free Speech and Political freedom has been crushed and replaced by a full Pravda like resonator room. Also, as Hitler ad Stalin he`s showing clear sign of Paranoia, at least since the times of the Pandemic, living completely insulated and keeping other comically at distance. This being said the geopolitical situation is clearly different, with a very weak Russia living on Iranian and Chinese loans, fighting a proxy influence war with the USA, but with nobody actually willing to step in and help Putin directly.

@alexandermontesdeoca7159

Ай бұрын

Russia is not living on Iranian loans. The dependence of Russia upon China is a different matter. That is a clear fact. In the end this is a conflict between China and the United States. China wants to break the supremacy of the United States. It is not ready to directly confront the United States (give it another 10 years). In the meanwhile they will stand discreetly between Russia to distract the attention and the focus of the West till China is ready to make its move. Dear Mr. Letospirosi, just like Ukraine is the proxy for the West in its conflict with Russia, Russia is the proxy for China in its conflict with the USA and the West in general.

@boroboro9562

Ай бұрын

" living completely insulated and keeping other comically at distance" kzread.info/dash/bejne/k6yi1sOBgKinoqg.html Jesus Christ, you mor0ns are so deluded this is comical.

@christianevanherck6023

Ай бұрын

Pressure from sanctions is also mounting and having an impact on the Russian economy. In February alone, some of China’s biggest banks stopped doing business with Russia. On February 7, Chouzhou Commercial Bank, the main Chinese bank facilitating Russia’s imports, stopped doing business with Russia. These Chinese institutions have accumulated vulnerabilities that expose them to the effects of sanctions. The effects of secondary sanctions are also beginning to work their way through the Russian economy. Since the beginning of 2024, banks in Turkey have severed nearly all financial ties with Russia. The UAE (which recently joined the BRICS) has similarly begun exiting the Russian market. Cyprus, once a safe haven for the Russian ultra-rich, announced it would begin partnering with financial crimes specialists from the U.S. FBI to root out sanctions evasion.

@alexandermontesdeoca7159

Ай бұрын

Ms.Vanherck, Unfortunately your statements reflect the usual Western belief that its political economic instruments are all powerful and you miss the larger geopolitical perspective. First of all, do you honestly believe that the Chinese government under Xi Jin Ping has any interest in Russia weakening? If one Chinese institution (because of the sanctions regime) decides to withdraw from doing business directly with Russia other (more opaque)instruments will be found to accomplish the same objectives. This is what China's geopolitical aims require. We are not dealing here only with a conflict between Russia and the West. We are dealing here with a conflict between the rising totalitarian powers (China foremost among them) and the liberal West. The Ukrainian war is only the initial stage in this long-term conflict. As far as the other players (UAE, Turkey)you mentioned are concerned more opaque ways will also be found to continue doing business. Money is money and profit is profit. Do not doubt that this will happen. Secondly, you betray a lack of understanding of the ability of the Russian Central Bank to generate capital for investment on its own.

@christianevanherck6023

Ай бұрын

@@alexandermontesdeoca7159 Nice try, I'm not buying it! Russian oil firms face delays of up to several months to be paid for crude and fuel as banks in China, Turkey and the UAE become more wary of US secondary sanctions. Payment delays reduce revenue to the Kremlin and make them erratic, allowing Washington to achieve its dual policy sanction goals - to disrupt money going to the Kremlin to punish it for the war in Ukraine while not interrupting global energy flows. Several banks in China, the UAE and Turkey have boosted their sanctions compliance requirements in recent weeks, resulting in delays or even the rejection of money transfers to Moscow, according to the eight banking and trading sources. [Reuters "Russia struggles to collect oil payments as China, UAE, Turkey raise bank scrutiny"]

I’m hope he s right. That Russia runs out of time. It withdraws its troops from Ukraine and Putin goes.

@joet4811

Ай бұрын

😂

@HaleG9

Ай бұрын

@@joet4811 does it hurt?

@DarrenJamiesonJamieson

Ай бұрын

The West is running out of time moe like. You have 4 weeks to catch Rambo before he reaches the armoury.

@stephenhill545

Ай бұрын

​@@HaleG9it's distressing to see such terrible suffering for one man's ego.

@johannagarda

Ай бұрын

@@DarrenJamiesonJamieson The West don't need to rash so they do not have "time" pressure to be worried, sir.

I immediately viewed Putin's talk of war for many years as hollow. For over two decades prior to the war, Russia had one of the world''s lowest birth rates. Their population was already declining and aging. This was exacerbated by several hundred thousand killed. maimed or missing, and an estimated ~700,000 who left Russia in two major waves. Having lost so many when the population was already declining, followed by having so many of the males being indefinitely stuck on the front lines, ensures a continued, rapid population decline. Losing another 700 to 1100 more people a day on the front, and they simply will not be able to maintain an army plus a manufacturing base to support the war, plus a base to maintain their civilian infrastructure.

I find myself enjoying your conversations quite a lot. Thank you very much!

As one from Czechoslovakia I cannot agree with apeasement policy in Munich. As well as I cannot agree with overcautious policy of the West now. We are so easily deterred, without any deterrence from our part.

@ThePurplePassage

Ай бұрын

As a Briton, neither can I. The point was not that appeasement was necessarily a good idea, rather it was not so naive as is commonly believed - Chamberlain wasn't sure Hitler would be satiated by the policy, rather that it would buy time for Britain to re-arm so that it would be better prepared if war broke out (as it ultimately did).

@Scroapy

Ай бұрын

It is not like it would be just britain fighting the germans. Czechoslovakia mobilized 1~mil men and had reasonably well equipped and trained army and very industrial economy. Giving czechoslovakia to germany was the reason germans could scale up production of everything into ridiculous levels and caused many many more deaths during the war. The right thing was to stand with czechoslovakia and if needed open front on the other side of germany(french + brits). There has never been found any document in german archives, which would prove germany immediately invading czechoslovakia if agreement would not be signed.

I have heard a comment saying that Macron comment has been a good strategic move because it introduces ambiguity. If one calculates that Russia with at the pick right now, considering the progress, I think it can't affor a direct confrontation with NATO or even EU. Therefore, the incentive to negotiate would be stronger and the position weakened.

We definitely have to have the discussion about sending troops to Ukraine. We might very well have to, so let’s get prepared; both militarily, politically, socially and mentally.

@christianevanherck6023

Ай бұрын

Currently, the 31 member states of the EU can field an impressive 1.3 million active-duty military personnel, roughly on par with the size of the US armed forces (approximately 1.4 million).

@mddell24

Ай бұрын

@@christianevanherck6023 Just one problem. It will take an impossible mountain of doughnuts to get to the same fitness level. It took them 30 years+ so yeah, someone is running out of time.

@ewartmouton

Ай бұрын

Better stockpile some factor 5 million sunscreen 🤯

KGB aka FSB does what it does. Murderous thugs and clumsy.

@nihilistzero8066

Ай бұрын

SBU says hold my вино

Tx Mr. Galleoti

I agree and have myself sayed, reconcilliation is at best possible 2 generations once the war has ended. It will be slower than post nazi Germany becoming heartily embraced by the rest of Europe. Germany had / has a democratic tradition, with free speech etc, and a very thorough denazification process, that Germany it self took over and pursued vigourusly. Russia has to start from a much lower "base level" than post nazi Germany did.

Great guest speaker. Respect from Australia.

Regarding final question on Ukraine/Russian post-war healing see Valeria Kovtan’s remarks on on Silicon Curtain (also at end of that interview) - Ukrainians healing through educating Russians

@moestietabarnak

Ай бұрын

Think in reverse, Russian are no the one that have an history of cultivating HATE.

Mark Galeotti thank you for your insight, appreciated

Why did the sprinklers not work? Why were the doors locked? Why did the metal scanners not work? Why did the police 50 meters away not turn up? Why did the terrorists get 700km before being stopped? They didn’t even change car.

@moestietabarnak

Ай бұрын

They were under surveillance and their communication were also tapped into by the FSB so they can gather intelligence about accomplice, which they did btw.

@iiio12

Ай бұрын

Good questions, in addition to that: Why was the official story pointing to a "Ukrainian" van only until a dashcam video was posted online with terrorists leaving white Renault? Why no large portraits/videos as they move around, that city is full of street cameras. How were they supposed to reach the Ukrainian border when it's militarized from both sides? Why a "terrorist" from the forest interrogation video would first say that he hadn't seen where his friends left the weapons, and only after the interrogator corrected him with the "right answer" he answered - yes we were together all the time and dropped them on the way.

@X37V_Freecazoid

Ай бұрын

And let's not forget that they did this for 500K and after few days for 1mil rubles(AKA €10K) and one of them even got avans of 250K on russian credit card ...

@seanniemeyer5437

Ай бұрын

​@@moestietabarnakthe FSB took a big risk by allowing armed terrorists to drive through Russia. These were active terrorists they could have had a secondary target, additional ammunition in the car, a bomb in the car etc.

The timing of the attack is probably unrelated to Ukraine but I wonder if the slow response and failure to detect it are a result of the war. If Russia wasn't dealing with military adventures she might be looking toward her real foes.

One thing don't tin I've ever really heard discussed in suitable detail that might be of benefit here: Who are Putin's keys to power? I'm using terminology from an old series of CGP Grey videos here, but basically, in any society where there is a leader, there are those who enable that person to be leader. In a military dictatorship, those are the generals of the army (who in turn have their own keys among their subordinates and so on). In a democracy, those are the individual voters, but also to a somewhat greater extent the luminaries of society who can influence others to exercise their vote, or to change how they would do so (this gets more complicated with the more realistic scenario of representative democracy, because to some extent the real power is held by those representatives, with it only occasionally being handed off to the general public so they can select a new batch of representatives). But fundamentally, the most powerful leader in the world is one person, and they are in charge because enough people in positions that can make or break their authority are choosing in the leader's favour. Russia's situation is quite complex. The oligarchs have a great deal of the country's resources, but they're also numerous enough that no one of them has enough power to greatly alter the balance of power and are kept in the dark as to who among them are loyalists who would turn them in rather than conspire with them. Similar setups apply in government ministries, etc.

@seanniemeyer5437

Ай бұрын

I believe the FSB and rosgvadia are putins power base.

Thanks for this video! For once , I disagree with Mark about the Crocus attack. I refer people to “Inside Russia”with Konstantin. Hear his take on this attack in yesterday’s live stream and see if it will change your view of what happened. (Remember you can increase the speed of the video play if the presenter is …a bit slow to get to the point) 😉 ✊🏻🇺🇦 Glory to the heroes

@hubertussuppenstiefel5590

Ай бұрын

I watched the first part of the video and I think he is a good fairytale uncle. He said the AK12 was kept secretly because it's brand new. Well at least in wikipedia stands: By mid-2021, 100,000 units had been delivered to the Russian armed forces.

@Aussie-Mocha

Ай бұрын

@@hubertussuppenstiefel5590 Hmmm! 🤔 My research on Wikipedia shows different- The AK-12 (official GRAU designation 6P70), based on the AK-400 prototype, alongside AK-15 (6P71), were accepted into service in January 2018.[62][23] The first deliveries of 2,500 AK-12 assault rifles as part of the state defence order began in December 2018. The Russian Ministry of Defence has signed a three-year contract with the Kalashnikov Concern for 150,000 AK-12 and AK-15 assault rifles to be delivered in 2019, 2020 and 2021. According to the Kalashnikov Concern on 20 August 2020 the Russian Defence Ministry is the main customer of the AK-12, which will gradually replace the AK-74M in the army and it is also being exported to some unspecified countries from near abroad

@hubertussuppenstiefel5590

Ай бұрын

@@Aussie-Mocha I looked at the german version of the article. It's at the end of the first paragraph. But anyway your quote confirms what I wrote.

@Aussie-Mocha

Ай бұрын

@@hubertussuppenstiefel5590 that’s what it all about if we want to get close to the truth. Research, read, listen, triangulate 👍🏻

Excellent interview!

On the topic of forgiveness past 1:00:00, Galeotti says pragmatic relationships for trade and “…indeed for gangster collaboration…” However true it may be that organized crime exists in Ukraine, organized crime also exists in Britain. What is the relevance to reaching forgiveness of the existence of organized crime across the globe? I bring this up because I am persistently annoyed by Mr. Galeotti’s choice of words, and have struggled with why. The above makes clear my annoyance…which is his unfettered arrogance cloaked in eloquent speech.

@Ufthak

Ай бұрын

I agree, it was a bizarre choice of example, and struck me as unnecessary in the context of question. However, he has never come across as arrogant to me, on the contrary, it seems to me that he tries to tone down the usual self-assuredness that comes with high levels of expertise. He’s also way more realistic and cautious at assessing Russian actions as compared to most other “Russia experts”.

@peterflohr7827

Ай бұрын

I didn't get that either.

@suburbia2050

Ай бұрын

"gangster collaboration" is "eloquent speech"?! It's clearly mocking the reality of the Wests trade with Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union, I mean Putin has often been described as the head of gas and oil monopoly who happens to run a country right. Why would that suddenly change even if Putin is disposed and the Russian elite apologise for the war? So then why is such a hypothesis "arrogance" when it perfectly sums up the reality behind the cloak of a capitalist democracy? I think you have taken a strange leap from calling Putin a gangster to general musings on organized crime which was not mentioned.

@suburbia2050

Ай бұрын

​​@@peterflohr7827because "gangster" is a well used metaphor for Russia's leaderships ownership of Russia's energy industry and how it is traded, why would such a successful setup ever change just because Putin loses a war in Ukraine and is disposed of?

@suburbia2050

Ай бұрын

​@@Ufthakit's not bizarre, it accurately describes the entire apparatus of the energy sector that the West traded with Russia for the past two decades

THANK YOU DR GALLEOTTI, VERY HELPFUL.

Mark is always so clear and cogent - I am an avid listener.

what an amazing interview!

Very interesting and insightful. Thanks!

Great questions, great answers. Thank you.

The issue with chamberlains plan was while yes britain was rearming the issue was that they re-armed partly with equipment and weapons that had been bought by smaller countries like the Nordic and the Poles. Which meant that both Poland and Sweden and Finland had far less then what they needed to defend themselves enough to atleast brake of the first assaults and deterr Germany and USSR. The danes and Norwegians was even worse off with Norway not having their new ships and instead having to use ironcalds. Sweden had bought massive amounts of fighters from both USA and Britan but they were never delivered in the long run this was a blessing in disguise as this forced the birth of SAAB and also a decision to mainly buy swedish built and designed systems. but there and then in the mid 30's and late 30's Sweden was caughts with their pants down and suddenly they felt a distrust to all sides. it didnt get better when Finland and Sweden caught the U.S and GB with plains of invading northern sweden instead of aiding Finland against USSR. IF the Allies allied forces had struck germany before 38 in an offensive attack Germany would most likely not have been able to handle it but sadly this was not what happened. that is the sad afterword to chat chamberlains decision set in motion. But that is ofcourse easy for us here in the 2020's to say and there is no doubt that chamberlain handled in the manor he thought protected GB in the best possibly way Same was for almost every leader of that time and only we here in the modern time can judge without knowing the full state of their predicament. Best regards.

Thanks!

Good stuff, thank you!

Very thoughtful discussion. Good interview.

As a finn, I can tell you, that reconciliation with russians after WW2 was just starting to happen after 80 years of the war end. And it was all ruined in a day by the russians two years ago. That is the time is the reconciliatin takes. So, even we finns are now back to the position 80 years ago.

@ftk2589

Ай бұрын

🤣

@RobertoEarnywho

Ай бұрын

the Finns know ruzzia well, and its treachery first hand. They will never forget ruzzian aggression and the false flag that ruzzia used to start the winter war.

@user-cl6qs1vn6h

10 күн бұрын

The Finns have not yet paid for the Vyborg massacre 1918, collaboration with Hitler and participation in the siege of Leningrad. I am very sorry that Stalin took pity on you. We remember everything.

@aatostaival5750

10 күн бұрын

@@user-cl6qs1vn6h I recommed to look forward. Living in the past won't get your life better. Anyway, we live in the present time and the future, not in the past. Russian past is in reality not so very glorious for russian people. Russians lost the WW1. It resulted Bolchevics tyranny and great purges at 1930's, people really suffered. Russia lost the WW2. That made Stalins regime able to continue and russian people be left behind growth and progress. Russia lost the cold war. As a result for that Russian assets were stolen twice. First by olighargs and then by Putins FSB. And how are russian people doing now? Russians will lose the war in Ukraine (sorry, the three day special operation) no matter what happens in Ukraine. Result will be raising poverty, declining services like health care. And of course ingreasing state control and maybe even purges like at 1930's. Nobody is safe from knocking at his door at night. Good luck.

@user-cl6qs1vn6h

6 күн бұрын

@@aatostaival5750 I recommend that you cut down on alcohol and don't marry any more sisters. We did not lose the First World War, we emerged from it due to internal betrayal. Stalin stopped the ramming of the Bolsheviks. You Mikka should kiss the feet of the Bolsheviks, they gave you independence. Russia won World War II, in case you didn't know. Stalin was a great leader. "Russian people be left behind growth and progress." Seriously? Mikka start at your leisure, about Stalin’s innovative economy. ...and then by Putins FSB. And how are Russian people doing now?... excellent, the economy is growing, reindustrialization is underway. ...Russians will lose the war in Ukraine... Seriously?... ...(sorry, the three day special operation)... ask about the “Istanbul Peace Treaty” and who violated it, it’s not difficult, even for a Finn. ...Result will be raising poverty, declining services like health care... in the free West - yes. ...Nobody is safe from knocking at his door at night... yeah, Putin will eat your brains at night. Oh wait, he'll stay hungry. And don’t forget that in 1721 we bought you all from Sweden, and the agreement has not been canceled. Don't forget who your owner is.

Brilliant responses

i Like the Bow in the Background

@peterflohr7827

Ай бұрын

A man has to defend himself.

thank you

Great interview.

No forgiveness without repentance and reparations.

@drecepy6213

Ай бұрын

So the Yanks and Brits should start with reperations first,they have to pay by far more to many countries...🤬

Past performance dictates future behaviour

Thanks. Some missing topics of importance: 1.) China's apetite(s) for Russia (land, economics). 2.) Domestic dynamics changing w sanctions x time going on x military defeats...leading to Putin's fall, unrest of republics, the 40some private military armies of oligarchs , ... Things like these

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Macron is also reacting to Russia (neo -Wagner group ) ousting French interests in the Sahel (former French West Africa).

A comment on "Peace for our time". Mark Galeotti points out that in real history, it was not as naive as is usually portrayed in popular culture today. That Britain was arming faster than Germany at the time, so it was arguable a cynical but smart choice to delay the outbreak of war (and possibly avoid war altogether). I haven't double checked this, but I have no reason to doubt Galeotti is right. And so Galeotti argues "Peace for our time" is a bad analogy to use, because it is not true. But I want to offer a counterpoint. The popular myth of "Peace for our time" does actually fit perfectly with what a peace deal with Putin without be today: pure foolishness. Putin has clearly said that his goal is to integrate all of Ukraine into Russia, and Putin will rearm and resume the war at an opportune time for Putin, there are no ultimately limited war goals. So just like the myth "The boy who cried wolf" is fictional and useful for analyzing reality, the myth of "Peace for our time" is fictional and useful for analyzing reality.

I'm reminded of Bismarck's comment about putting the Balkans "on ice". While he's fighting a war in Ukraine, he wants to put the Caucasus on ice.

I think the comparison with Hitler is very astute in his modus operandi and using national minorities in other countries being repressed as an excuse for either indirectly supporting revolts or openly attacking other countries. Sadly though the appeasement time period has not been used to build up military production capacity, but instead the west thought that Putin could be bought by economic entanglement and otherwise ignoring smaller conflicts Russia kicked off. Yet it seems Putin's attack on Ukraine became Hitler's attack on Poland, not quite in the same way but in that it made the democratic countries take active serious steps towards discouraging Russia.

Great questions😊

As this interview draws to an end I can't but fail to note that the several possible extreme outcomes of this war have been set aside. No country went into World War two with the intention of seeing the other side obliterated, but that was the actual outcome. With the aggressor side in this war threatening obliteration and delivering object lessons in inhumanity from the outset I am left stunned at the thought that somehow the nations in a position to prevent this might just give the aggressors get a pass. Not only must Ukraine survive intact and be made whole. The aggressor nation must be defanged, and damn their supposedly 'delicate' sensibilities. That is not a task to be undertaken by Ukraine alone, nor as a proxy. Inevitably, Macron is correct. He may have staked out this position for political reasons - but he is, after all, a politician. We must recognize that we are at war. Yes, it makes me sad. No, I do not want it to be so. It is not a matter of choice. It is a matter of killing the snake in our midst. There is no negotiating with a snake in order to modify it's behavior. As things stand at the present there are only two players on a war footing, while the stated enemies of Russia (the countries of NATO) are responding with varying levels of recognition of the threat. We all need to be doing much more and much sooner, to avoid dire consequences later on.

Those guys he has are not the terrorists.

You really need to get Peter Zeihan on here, to make sense of this from the nuts and bolts facts of demographics and geography.

Macron said that sending French troops to Ukraine isn’t off the table. He didn’t say that he’s send French troops. Maybe right now he doesn’t believe that it’s necessary.

Russia has been seriously undercutting French interests in Africa. This could account for the much more aggressive attitude towards Russia in Ukraine.

A strong economy with a 16% interest rate ...

@christianevanherck6023

Ай бұрын

Despite this high interest rate, businesses and households continue to borrow, indicating high inflation expectations. This means that the key rate will not return to single digits any time soon. The Russian energy company Rosneft’s CEO, Igor Sechin, has urged Putin to influence the independent central bank’s decisions. He has not done so. For the Kremlin, high interest rates constitute an image problem, undermining Putin’s narrative that the Russian economy is stable. A healthy economy does not need a double-digit key rate.

@mrx2062

Ай бұрын

@@christianevanherck6023 You can only service such debt with high inflation. Average good businesses earn maybe about 15 to 16 % on equity.

He’s off on some counts. Russia would only face a guerilla war if it went into western Ukraine, which I’m not sure it would want to. Further, yes, Russia is dying, but it is still extremely powerful, and able to at a minimum challenge NATO (without the US) in conventional warfare. To say nothing of nukes, which could be used as a deterrent to splinter NATO members and prevent them from helping each other. The US is preoccupied and frankly would have trouble sustaining a conventional war effort in Europe against an adversary equipped with submarines able to take out cross-Atlantic convoys. The point of the matter is this. Russia is a dying but powerful former empire. It feels extremely slighted, and is enraged from two years of war against what it (sort of correctly) perceives to be the entire West. And next to it you have a club of wealthy, militarily weak nations that hold the keys to Russia not dying economically, in one form or another. You have US preoccupied and potentially unwilling to risk Armageddon over the fate of Estonia, say. This is a tinderbox.

@ericwillis777

Ай бұрын

Hmm, - Russia only has physical power because it does little else but try to project violence onto others, but apart from self satisfaction it seems to gain very little for it's population. Eventually, like in 1917, they will get fed up with it, and want a better life to look forward to than just being killed in 'patriotic' wars. Russia is just a few hundreds of years behind the West culturally. They are essentially a feudal society, run, capriciously, by a king and a court, and owned by local 'barons'.

@mebsrea

Ай бұрын

Russia’s ability to seriously interdict Atlantic convoys is questionable. In the event of hostilities between NATO and Russia, any Russian submarines in the Black or Baltic Seas would be either destroyed in short order or unable to break out into the Atlantic. The Northern Fleet appears to have only somewhere in the range of 6-12 operational attack submarines at the moment, all based around Murmansk. That’s within easy surveillance and attack range of NATO territory, and requires a long run through a thousand miles of NATO-controlled airspace to reach likely convoy routes. That last point means that the diesel-electric subs comprising about a third of the Northern Fleet’s attack submarine strength would be essentially useless, as they could not reach the North Atlantic without surfacing for air, which would be suicidal given NATO’s complete control of the airspace off the western coast of Norway.

@NobodyAnywhere-xi9dz

Ай бұрын

We Europeans will not need USA help to take down Russia. It would kill the transatlantic alliance, because we would have to drop the USD and drop US weapons, in order to finance and pull it off, but it is still possible. The British already said that openly. It will kill the west very likely, and no one should hope for that, but to think that Russia can defeat mainland Europe is insanity. Also, to so openly use nuclear weapons against cities when you started the war is something that will forever isolate Russia, plus the atrocities the people are going to do to Russians will resemble the holocaust. Nuclear weapons destroying a nation will not cause despair or sadness, the will cause total madness-revenge. Additionally, this is the point you lose your friends called XI and the Saudi Crown Prince. Additionally, even if Trump is elected, he needs Europe to isolate China. If Trump dumps Ukraine, there is no reason for Europe to support USA over China anymore.

This guy is absolutely gorgeous 😍 I think I’m in love ❤

There may be a hybrid opinion, a true flag used as a false flag. Russia was warned and they may have decided to let it happen to bolster support for ukraine war and increase support for additional mobilization.

I'd be interested to know how securely (or otherwise) the FSB identified the perpetrators of the concert shooting. Because it would be perfectly easy for them to just grab some random Tadjiks. Who would know or care? I was hoping Bellingcat would do some neat comparison with videos, but Bellingcat seems to have been a bit limp lately.

Spot on..Macron changes his headlines like laundry hanging on the line on a breezy day.

Just sweet words, the are hypothetical

Absent from the discussion is Brezinski's point before he died, "if I were Russia I would be more concerned about China." Putin's logic has been off the mark.

It's kinda like the 1930s, but after the gain of Sudetenland in 1938 the Wehrmacht got stuck in Poland for years. I think Putin hoped he would roll over Ukraine like the Germans over Poland in 39. In that sense it's pretty much over before it began.

I'm not so sure about Macron. Basically what we see at the moment is huge signs of de-globalisation as well as an increasing trend of American isolationism and there inability to further underwrite global trade militarily. Maybe Macron looks further ahead and looks for ways to replace American leadership of Europe with French leadership, because otherwise Europe could fall back into different spheres of influence like before WW2.

I think it worth mentioning that Macron might also just be putting out statements like that because Russia has been making such ridiculous statements, about firing nukes, about going further in Ukraine, about threatening other nations, etc., and this is just a response where he is showing that escalation is on the table,and maybe Russia needs to stop throwing out the craziest, wildest threats they can quite so often.

Broadly speaking, it is about the clash of ideologies, in which not only Russia is involved. Countries like Russia want to free themselves from Western hegemony and from binding laws and democratic values in general.

@riffraff6506

Ай бұрын

The alternative to democratic values is dictatorship

If Ukraine had the capacities to put armed men in Moscow, the war would have ended 2 years ago, if ever started.

@moestietabarnak

Ай бұрын

LOL... if that was true, the WORLD would have ended 2 years ago. Damn these people have no understanding of nuclear power !

It is refreshing to see a speaker on Russia that is balanced , cautious and speaking with respect about Russia.

Boots on the ground may mean - western nations sends their troops (AA systems, logistical systems, etc.) to safeguard western Ukraine and letting all Ukrainian forces go to front with having safe air and support stuff behind them. It doesn't exactly mean "shooting at russians".

@peterlaurie1247

Ай бұрын

Right now NATO military doctrine is looking a bit dated. A 'modern' battle group might be heavier in APCs and drones instead of tanks. NATO forces might find themselves getting pasted if they don'"t train for the new rules.

41.20 Absolutely no threat to NATO at all

@RenegadeSound

Ай бұрын

41:20 Agreed

Mussolini lost, and died. Hitler lost, and died. Sadam Hussein lost, and died. Gaddafi lost, and died. Putler is losing...

@Billxparker

Ай бұрын

Franco?

@kobemop

Ай бұрын

Gaddafi was great for Libya and Africa. Getting rid of him increased immigration into Europe lol.

@moestietabarnak

Ай бұрын

Zelensky will go first...

Whole heartedly agree with the way Russia treated IS.

“More and more problems on the Russian side.” And possibly more western aid.

I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the men dressed all in blue. I saw then in the footage with my own eyes. They numbered about 7 and they were all looking either calm or disinterested when everyone else in the crowd was making for the doors with speed. Then there’s the likeness of one particular man in blue, who when compared to the pictures of the FSB agent who arrested the shooters, seems to be same man. Loads of identifying markers. The likeness is uncanny!

Please invite the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Radosław Sikorski

Does anyone know what kind of headphones the interviewee is wearing? (He gave a fantastic interview, by the way.)

The first 40% of this interview was about a terorist attack. When you put a headline like "Russia Is More Fragile" we expect a very different kind of content, because terrorism is a kind of political theater and it would just be silly to infer that "Russia is fragile" from such a thing. About halfway into the video we started to get some analysis, but I almost bailed out before you broached substance.

That reminds me,I've seen lots of gold,you ask where?Shangri-la.

For an inside analysis of the police reaction watch "Unmasking the Mastermind: Crocus City Hall Terror Attack Exposed"

I think you may be wrong about Macron's switch to the hawks' side because of two things which are absolutely no surprise from french tradition : 1/ as nuclear power the french pose of strategic ambiguity needs to say that everything is possible, not to do it 2/ the (potential) disengagment of the USA which leave a huge void for nato's credibilty. The nation cynical pose is not sure ... as it alarms people also here in france (which isn't political gain when votes has to be counted), let's say it could comes as third point at best.

Just imagine who painted red square RED!

@zwami7492

Ай бұрын

Very accurate analysis

It sounds like the "nerd" Sullivan who led the escape from Kabul is now plotting the future of the world.

Sadly, I fear the jury is out on the contention in the headline. If the West including the USA had not been so slow and dithering and even back peddled re help for Ukraine (except for SOME of those who know exactly what it is like living under the Russian jackboot (clearly not the leaders of Slovakia and Hungary, shame on them)...

I’m so glad that brought up the bombing of 1989 it is a moment in history non of us can even remember . Let alone even being born.

1:02 the war has a historical context that isn't going away, they wont move on from this with a new leader

Excellent interview, thank you.

Very interesting document podcast in which Russia’s fate is sealed as an avowed opponent for NATO and will thereby oblige itself to a war to the death or until the west climbs down. But nobody in NATO countries is going to give up capitalism for a socialist dictatorship. Long live a free Ukraine and democracy in the western way of life.

Flaw in the thinking is that Putin is doing this because of some external aim… perhaps is simply to retain and consolidate internal power and therefore perpetual war is the plan ( kotkin noted motives like these in the old Soviet days and it’s a common method in Russian history)

This is very insightful.

How about Russia invading Estonia just to demonstrate that NATO will not come to help?

Love that....."Perfidious Albion".......MI6.....ha ha !

"From reality to history" sounds like a book tile

Yeah sure, 'any month now'. We've been hearing this take since 2014. Go ahead and get back to us when the army retreats to Russia.

😎👍

Trump threatened to leave NATO in his last term, talk is that if he gets another term he will fulfil that threat, what would that do to Europe?

@HepCatJack

Ай бұрын

This could get Russia to demand Alaska back and the US wouldn't have NATO support. There's a good chance Donald would just hand it over to him to be a good boy and receive praise.

@RenegadeSound

Ай бұрын

Then there would be the issue of American military installations around the world , 99 year leases notwithstanding would evaporate before your eyes .