Project Scheduling 2 -Calculating variance and probabilities -PERT/CPM

Project Scheduling 1 -Finding Critical Path video: • Project Scheduling - P...
This video shows how to
• Calculate expected times
• Calculate variances
• Calculate probability of completion of project at specified time
• Calculate the project completion time given probability
00:00 Intro
00:34 Calculate Expected Time (t)
01:39 Calculate Variance
02:32 Calculate Probabilities
03:33 Calculate t given probability

Пікірлер: 144

  • @katiabarretto1802
    @katiabarretto18025 жыл бұрын

    i learned more from this 4min video than i did in my 2 hour class. thank you

  • @Osorio
    @Osorio5 жыл бұрын

    Watched 4 of your videos, learned my whole semester

  • @safaerizki7345

    @safaerizki7345

    2 жыл бұрын

    LMAO Same here

  • @giannistsagarakis3187

    @giannistsagarakis3187

    Жыл бұрын

    the guy is unbelievably efficient

  • @yangteo803

    @yangteo803

    8 ай бұрын

    Which 4

  • @rt2000rt
    @rt2000rt5 жыл бұрын

    Thank you sir, you just summarize my 2 hours course into 4 minutes. Well done sir.

  • @pagalhokya
    @pagalhokya Жыл бұрын

    My degree might as well have "The University of Joshua Emmanuel" written on it. I pretty much learned my MBA concepts from you. You're better than most professors out there.

  • @pardonfox331
    @pardonfox3313 жыл бұрын

    God Bless you Josh, you are indeed living for others. You are a Super Instructor..

  • @deeptikumarroy8630
    @deeptikumarroy86302 жыл бұрын

    This is a summary of an hour long lecture. Thank you so much!

  • @bogsespelekpek6542
    @bogsespelekpek65422 жыл бұрын

    This is exactly what i am looking for! Great presentation! Keep making video to help others like me, who is trying to figure out what is missing on my book 🤣🤣🤣 youtube is really a great help to students! Thank you so much!

  • @keremt.c2384
    @keremt.c23842 жыл бұрын

    Thanks to you, I passed my final exam. Thank you so much.

  • @mave4395
    @mave43954 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for making the video! Now I know what Scheduling of project is all about

  • @ronaphiri2814
    @ronaphiri28143 жыл бұрын

    Really educative in such a short period of time thank you🙏🏽

  • @bakihanma1680
    @bakihanma16807 ай бұрын

    holly shit, you just saved my ass bro, my final's on monday & idk tf that even was when my prof explained it, and you did it in 4 minutes & I understood it all so easily. god bless you.

  • @alejandramarentes6377
    @alejandramarentes63776 жыл бұрын

    best video ever, you solved all my doubts!! thank you so much btw im from Monterrey Mexico

  • @hashemalkhatib5543
    @hashemalkhatib55436 жыл бұрын

    Hello Joshua , Thanks for clear explanation . please which program are you using to present your videos ?

  • @nicgaddin3889
    @nicgaddin38894 жыл бұрын

    This dude is the best on KZread!!! Da General

  • @glomari62
    @glomari624 жыл бұрын

    Have got an exam and this has really helped! Thank you!!

  • @camilaparola2781
    @camilaparola27815 жыл бұрын

    Great explanation! Thank you!

  • @natalieinspired8
    @natalieinspired83 жыл бұрын

    You deserve a medal.

  • @justinhall7022
    @justinhall70226 жыл бұрын

    You are a lifesaver!

  • @MrAbiteha
    @MrAbiteha5 жыл бұрын

    Superb. Short and precise.

  • @turkialbarakati2022
    @turkialbarakati20222 жыл бұрын

    Really very great. This video helped me a lot !! Thanks..

  • @SA-ty5du
    @SA-ty5du6 жыл бұрын

    Excellent videos , thank you so much 🙏🏻

  • @michaelmanias4560
    @michaelmanias45604 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for making this!

  • @texculp67
    @texculp672 жыл бұрын

    I stand AMAZED! Concise and presented professionally!! I want to work with you!!

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for the comments, Tex. Want to work with me? I'm honored.

  • @deepthivanasarla1762
    @deepthivanasarla17622 ай бұрын

    Thank you so much. You are just like a god. explained so detailed.

  • @jiamiamom
    @jiamiamom5 жыл бұрын

    test coming up April 10. THANK YOU SO VERY MUCH

  • @bensmith6987
    @bensmith69874 жыл бұрын

    Great video. Thank you.

  • @elliotbrush6854
    @elliotbrush685410 ай бұрын

    Great video - very informative and easily digestible!

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    10 ай бұрын

    Thanks, Elliot. Nice to hear.

  • @ganee
    @ganee Жыл бұрын

    This video is valuable even after 5 years. This video made me understand what my lecturer couldn't.

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    Glad to hear Ganee. Thanks for dropping a note.

  • @rifat115

    @rifat115

    4 ай бұрын

    Same to me❤

  • @rifat115

    @rifat115

    4 ай бұрын

    ​@@joshemman thanks for the videos ❤

  • @quratulaind3168
    @quratulaind3168 Жыл бұрын

    I wish i found you during my bachelors in engineering, I would have made a far confident engineer

  • @roseannrawls1584
    @roseannrawls1584 Жыл бұрын

    This was Perfect...

  • @kiranpannu3822
    @kiranpannu38224 жыл бұрын

    from where we get optimistic,most likely and pessimistic values?

  • @chocomaloipie0408
    @chocomaloipie04087 ай бұрын

    thank you so much, sir!

  • @WillisMadden
    @WillisMadden4 жыл бұрын

    Great Instruction!!!!!

  • @aaryanbudhiraja1656
    @aaryanbudhiraja16565 жыл бұрын

    lol transformed an hour's lecture into 10 minutes, hats off

  • @preritgoyal9293
    @preritgoyal92933 жыл бұрын

    Very nice video sir. Short and sweet 😊😊

  • @saribshakeel8767
    @saribshakeel87672 ай бұрын

    Thank you for clear and precise understanding on this topic

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    2 ай бұрын

    You're welcome, Sarib.

  • @drunkengunner9092
    @drunkengunner90924 жыл бұрын

    I love you man. Thank You so much.

  • @drunkengunner9092

    @drunkengunner9092

    4 жыл бұрын

    from Indian Institute of Management Amritsar.

  • @vrushali9599
    @vrushali95993 жыл бұрын

    Thank You For this Amazing video...👍👍

  • @belindagonzalez866
    @belindagonzalez8668 ай бұрын

    You are awsome, your PPT was great it was perfect.

  • @Lydie97
    @Lydie975 жыл бұрын

    best explanation!

  • @varunbahirwani333
    @varunbahirwani333 Жыл бұрын

    Superbbb content 😃😃😃

  • @MaxTheKing289
    @MaxTheKing289 Жыл бұрын

    Thanks for this... A whole semester in 4min

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    Happy to help!

  • @WonderlandX-fc3ss
    @WonderlandX-fc3ss Жыл бұрын

    If there are 2 critical path, which one should we use to calculate variance?

  • @pushpavechalapu6579
    @pushpavechalapu65793 жыл бұрын

    Super sir ,I understand clearly 👌👌

  • @isha6289
    @isha62894 ай бұрын

    Thank you so much❤

  • @sawmtea5755
    @sawmtea5755 Жыл бұрын

    So helpful!

  • @ahmedibrahim4542
    @ahmedibrahim45423 жыл бұрын

    thanks alot It really helped me

  • @Olivia-light.joy.and_peace
    @Olivia-light.joy.and_peace2 жыл бұрын

    big brain :) thank you!!

  • @Sabrina-lo9vq
    @Sabrina-lo9vq5 жыл бұрын

    thank u for saving me !!!

  • @moseschikusela9182
    @moseschikusela91829 ай бұрын

    You are great

  • @bestxboxclips4331
    @bestxboxclips43314 жыл бұрын

    I have an exam tomorrow, I love you, thanks so much

  • @AhmedXGhost007

    @AhmedXGhost007

    4 жыл бұрын

    same as me i love him so much he is my hero

  • @Anonymous-mi6
    @Anonymous-mi63 жыл бұрын

    What is the probability that the project will need or take more than 31 days?

  • @TheNeighborhoodCat
    @TheNeighborhoodCat9 ай бұрын

    this shows you that there are much more effective methods of teaching.

  • @patrickbelasa5987
    @patrickbelasa5987 Жыл бұрын

    nice!👍

  • @aissajez911
    @aissajez9115 жыл бұрын

    3:55 I think there's an error there when you said the project should start 36 weeks earlier, I think the project should start 3.7 weeks earlier than the initial planning to end on time with 90% probability, because what we have calculated is the total duration of the project (critical path) and it's 35.7w, while we had 32w as initial duration. so we should substract 35.7-32=3.7weeks. not about 36 weeks earlier. correct me if I'm wrong please

  • @KingK742
    @KingK7423 ай бұрын

    Wa khasta monna 🫡

  • @chriskerley1508
    @chriskerley15086 жыл бұрын

    Why is the normal distribution used?

  • @otanifederio4989
    @otanifederio49896 жыл бұрын

    where do u ge or how do u get m(6)most likely and b(14)pessimistic

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    6 жыл бұрын

    For academic purposes, they (a, m, b) will be provided for you. But practically, you know from records or experience on past projects.

  • @husseinahmed4348
    @husseinahmed43485 жыл бұрын

    Astonishing ....could u teach us project crash

  • @diavionnewilson6789
    @diavionnewilson6789 Жыл бұрын

    How would I go about calculating probability of completion time of, for example, exactly 37 weeks. Would I be able to answer less than or equal to 37 weeks and this would be sufficient? Or do I need to subtract probably of more than 36 weeks but less than 38 weeks?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    The probability of "exactly" should be zero because we're dealing with a continuous distribution.

  • @zenapsgas
    @zenapsgas6 жыл бұрын

    There are different ways to calculating the variance. My book says variance = (t-a)/(b-t) / 7

  • @themage5175
    @themage51753 жыл бұрын

    If there are multiple critical path, does that mean we need to find probability for each path?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    3 жыл бұрын

    Typically, you use the critical path with the largest variance.

  • @cleanenergy79
    @cleanenergy792 жыл бұрын

    How did you get 32 as the mean

  • @ender_paul
    @ender_paul Жыл бұрын

    Can you find the critical path if the only given is optimistic, most likely , and pessimistic?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    You must know the predecessors as well.

  • @woweffect9731
    @woweffect9731 Жыл бұрын

    Hey Joshua nice video, one question: what if the Time t is not an integer...? Round it up...?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    Time does not have to be an integer. So only round if necessary or required.

  • @frankdavidpascual9777
    @frankdavidpascual97774 жыл бұрын

    You save my job dude! Aahahah

  • @chandrashekharneupane2464
    @chandrashekharneupane24643 жыл бұрын

    Thanks maan

  • @shizuchuan
    @shizuchuan3 жыл бұрын

    Hi, how did you get the values from optimistic to pessimistic? Thank you

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    3 жыл бұрын

    Let's just say they are already given to you.

  • @markjoons

    @markjoons

    Жыл бұрын

    How can we get it from the given first value

  • @phonugper7880
    @phonugper7880 Жыл бұрын

    Hi Joshua, may i know what software you use to animate the chart?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    I use PowerPoint for the charts but I edit and annotate using Camtasia Studio.

  • @ZoePaal
    @ZoePaal Жыл бұрын

    Helpful, thanks. Do you have a Google Sheet template to do this or can you recommend one?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    You mean, to calculate the normal probabilities?

  • @ZoePaal

    @ZoePaal

    Жыл бұрын

    @@joshemman Thx for the reply. The whole thing actually. From the table for calculating variance to calculating those z scores

  • @gloriasheen6336
    @gloriasheen63365 жыл бұрын

    why do you use standard deviation? when do you not use it?

  • @geraldobakhume3904

    @geraldobakhume3904

    3 жыл бұрын

    SD is used to calculate the probability. The Z formula.

  • @maddieisntreal8351
    @maddieisntreal83512 жыл бұрын

    what should i do if the expected time is NOT an integer? thanks

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    2 жыл бұрын

    Nothing differently. It just makes calculations more challenging.

  • @gilangtjahyadi826
    @gilangtjahyadi8264 ай бұрын

    sir i have one question, at 2:47 u got the value of P = 0,8508 from the table, how u get that value? and what the table is that? i don't understand, would u like to explain me please... thank you.

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    4 ай бұрын

    It is the Z-table (the standard normal table). You can find them online if you do a simple Google search.

  • @jieben777
    @jieben7778 ай бұрын

    How did you compute for the area???

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    8 ай бұрын

    It was obtained from the Z table.

  • @divyanshuraj1356
    @divyanshuraj1356 Жыл бұрын

    How do we find the area for a certain value of z

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    See if this helps: kzread.info/dash/bejne/opN_o9KjoNyoeKg.html

  • @emilyveneranda6793
    @emilyveneranda67933 жыл бұрын

    thanks like

  • @AkinveNazIrlanda
    @AkinveNazIrlanda5 жыл бұрын

    Importantly, if 36 weeks promises %90 chance success of the project, is that mean 32 weeks promise %80 chance of success?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    5 жыл бұрын

    32 is the mean. It promises 50% chance of success.

  • @AkinveNazIrlanda

    @AkinveNazIrlanda

    5 жыл бұрын

    ​@@joshemman Okay. Can we use this technique in also construction sector for activity and project estimations? Some people says it is not convenient because of %50 chance. Let say, still we choose this technique for application. What would be the good part to use PERT in that field? Thanks.

  • @skylarkenneth2407

    @skylarkenneth2407

    5 жыл бұрын

    @@AkinveNazIrlanda PERT can be used in a construction setting, that's what I inferred from reading my textbook. PERT originated from the military with unknown duration of tasks to be completed in a research and development environment. PERT was designed for uncertainties. However, using historical data or logic to construct reasonable time estimates for task duration is a big plus. If you look at the stats in the video, 4 more weeks for +40% success rate...seems worth the wait.

  • @boddapaatideepak1624
    @boddapaatideepak16245 ай бұрын

    Can anyone please say how to a,m and b from the forward and backward diagram

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    5 ай бұрын

    a, m, and b must be given to you. You cannot find them from the nework diagram.

  • @bmtamim7818
    @bmtamim7818 Жыл бұрын

    Why (a+4m+b)/6? Is the 6 is fixed or this can be changed?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    The 6 is fixed. It's a weighted average. The weights are a: 1 m: 4 b: 1 Total: 6

  • @bmtamim7818

    @bmtamim7818

    Жыл бұрын

    @@joshemman Thanks a lot❤️

  • @loggiedude9188
    @loggiedude918811 ай бұрын

    How did you get the mean of 32?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    11 ай бұрын

    By adding up the expected time for critical activities.

  • @rei-fg1kk
    @rei-fg1kk3 жыл бұрын

    Hi, how do you get the z score of 90%?

  • @rahults1064

    @rahults1064

    2 жыл бұрын

    in the table we need to check which value has .90 In table .8997 was close to .90 so we take z as 1.28

  • @rei-fg1kk

    @rei-fg1kk

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@rahults1064 thank you

  • @olo1135
    @olo1135 Жыл бұрын

    at 3:01 how did you find the .3632

  • @studytimewithjency

    @studytimewithjency

    8 ай бұрын

    www.math.arizona.edu/~rsims/ma464/standardnormaltable.pdf

  • @shresthai3515
    @shresthai351510 ай бұрын

    Hi Joshua, Is there a reason why are we dividing by 6? It is always 6 no matter the number of activities?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    10 ай бұрын

    Yes. We always divide by 6 no matter the number of activities. The expected value is a weighted average. “a” has a weight of 1 “m” has a weight of 4 “b” has a weight of 1. Total weight = 1 + 4 + 1 = 6

  • @shresthai3515

    @shresthai3515

    10 ай бұрын

    Oh thank you very much. @@joshemman

  • @andrewmurschel2608

    @andrewmurschel2608

    3 ай бұрын

    I had this same question. Glad it was already answered :)

  • @yasserbaroudy5275
    @yasserbaroudy5275 Жыл бұрын

    Where can I find the z chart?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    Just Google "Z table"

  • @ammarelmazi8370
    @ammarelmazi83703 жыл бұрын

    Is it always divided by 6 ?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    3 жыл бұрын

    Yes!

  • @aricleekirsten724
    @aricleekirsten724 Жыл бұрын

    How did you find the mean of 32?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    The mean is found by adding up the Expected Times for critical activities.

  • @aricleekirsten724

    @aricleekirsten724

    Жыл бұрын

    @@joshemman Thank you sir!

  • @kotagyan3702
    @kotagyan37024 жыл бұрын

    Most uncertain activities is which one????

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    4 жыл бұрын

    The one with the largest variance (or range).

  • @kennethkayeramos2858
    @kennethkayeramos285810 ай бұрын

    Hello, what if we want a 99.99% probability of completing the project on time, when we should begin?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    10 ай бұрын

    You can use your table or use =NORMSINV(0.9999) in Excel. This will return a Z score of approximately 3.72.

  • @kennethkayeramos2858

    @kennethkayeramos2858

    10 ай бұрын

    @@joshemman I'm confused sir, why dont we use the 3.69 and also the 3.70, 3.71, or either 3.73. They all have the same

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    10 ай бұрын

    @@kennethkayeramos2858 Are you using table or software?

  • @kennethkayeramos2858

    @kennethkayeramos2858

    10 ай бұрын

    @@joshemman table, sir.

  • @marianna3876
    @marianna3876 Жыл бұрын

    Sir, I'm a Vietnamese student. Can you explain to me why there is 0.8508? 2:46

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    You can use the z-table (1.0 under 0.04) as shown in 2:46. Or you can use Google Sheets =NORM.S.DIST(1.04).

  • @marianna3876

    @marianna3876

    Жыл бұрын

    @@joshemman thank you. Appreciate your help ^_^

  • @lesbournericketts6021
    @lesbournericketts60214 жыл бұрын

    Any utech student here?

  • @nanzangusililo6844
    @nanzangusililo6844 Жыл бұрын

    Still lost

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    Where are you heading for exactly?

  • @bogsespelekpek6542
    @bogsespelekpek65422 жыл бұрын

    This is exactly what i am looking for! Great presentation! Keep making video to help others like me, who is trying to figure out what is missing on my book 🤣🤣🤣 youtube is really a great help to students! Thank you so much!