Project Scheduling 2 -Calculating variance and probabilities -PERT/CPM
Project Scheduling 1 -Finding Critical Path video: • Project Scheduling - P...
This video shows how to
• Calculate expected times
• Calculate variances
• Calculate probability of completion of project at specified time
• Calculate the project completion time given probability
00:00 Intro
00:34 Calculate Expected Time (t)
01:39 Calculate Variance
02:32 Calculate Probabilities
03:33 Calculate t given probability
Пікірлер: 144
i learned more from this 4min video than i did in my 2 hour class. thank you
Watched 4 of your videos, learned my whole semester
@safaerizki7345
2 жыл бұрын
LMAO Same here
@giannistsagarakis3187
Жыл бұрын
the guy is unbelievably efficient
@yangteo803
8 ай бұрын
Which 4
Thank you sir, you just summarize my 2 hours course into 4 minutes. Well done sir.
My degree might as well have "The University of Joshua Emmanuel" written on it. I pretty much learned my MBA concepts from you. You're better than most professors out there.
God Bless you Josh, you are indeed living for others. You are a Super Instructor..
This is a summary of an hour long lecture. Thank you so much!
This is exactly what i am looking for! Great presentation! Keep making video to help others like me, who is trying to figure out what is missing on my book 🤣🤣🤣 youtube is really a great help to students! Thank you so much!
Thanks to you, I passed my final exam. Thank you so much.
Thank you for making the video! Now I know what Scheduling of project is all about
Really educative in such a short period of time thank you🙏🏽
holly shit, you just saved my ass bro, my final's on monday & idk tf that even was when my prof explained it, and you did it in 4 minutes & I understood it all so easily. god bless you.
best video ever, you solved all my doubts!! thank you so much btw im from Monterrey Mexico
Hello Joshua , Thanks for clear explanation . please which program are you using to present your videos ?
This dude is the best on KZread!!! Da General
Have got an exam and this has really helped! Thank you!!
Great explanation! Thank you!
You deserve a medal.
You are a lifesaver!
Superb. Short and precise.
Really very great. This video helped me a lot !! Thanks..
Excellent videos , thank you so much 🙏🏻
Thank you for making this!
I stand AMAZED! Concise and presented professionally!! I want to work with you!!
@joshemman
2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the comments, Tex. Want to work with me? I'm honored.
Thank you so much. You are just like a god. explained so detailed.
test coming up April 10. THANK YOU SO VERY MUCH
Great video. Thank you.
Great video - very informative and easily digestible!
@joshemman
10 ай бұрын
Thanks, Elliot. Nice to hear.
This video is valuable even after 5 years. This video made me understand what my lecturer couldn't.
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
Glad to hear Ganee. Thanks for dropping a note.
@rifat115
4 ай бұрын
Same to me❤
@rifat115
4 ай бұрын
@@joshemman thanks for the videos ❤
I wish i found you during my bachelors in engineering, I would have made a far confident engineer
This was Perfect...
from where we get optimistic,most likely and pessimistic values?
thank you so much, sir!
Great Instruction!!!!!
lol transformed an hour's lecture into 10 minutes, hats off
Very nice video sir. Short and sweet 😊😊
Thank you for clear and precise understanding on this topic
@joshemman
2 ай бұрын
You're welcome, Sarib.
I love you man. Thank You so much.
@drunkengunner9092
4 жыл бұрын
from Indian Institute of Management Amritsar.
Thank You For this Amazing video...👍👍
You are awsome, your PPT was great it was perfect.
best explanation!
Superbbb content 😃😃😃
Thanks for this... A whole semester in 4min
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
Happy to help!
If there are 2 critical path, which one should we use to calculate variance?
Super sir ,I understand clearly 👌👌
Thank you so much❤
So helpful!
thanks alot It really helped me
big brain :) thank you!!
thank u for saving me !!!
You are great
I have an exam tomorrow, I love you, thanks so much
@AhmedXGhost007
4 жыл бұрын
same as me i love him so much he is my hero
What is the probability that the project will need or take more than 31 days?
this shows you that there are much more effective methods of teaching.
nice!👍
3:55 I think there's an error there when you said the project should start 36 weeks earlier, I think the project should start 3.7 weeks earlier than the initial planning to end on time with 90% probability, because what we have calculated is the total duration of the project (critical path) and it's 35.7w, while we had 32w as initial duration. so we should substract 35.7-32=3.7weeks. not about 36 weeks earlier. correct me if I'm wrong please
Wa khasta monna 🫡
Why is the normal distribution used?
where do u ge or how do u get m(6)most likely and b(14)pessimistic
@joshemman
6 жыл бұрын
For academic purposes, they (a, m, b) will be provided for you. But practically, you know from records or experience on past projects.
Astonishing ....could u teach us project crash
How would I go about calculating probability of completion time of, for example, exactly 37 weeks. Would I be able to answer less than or equal to 37 weeks and this would be sufficient? Or do I need to subtract probably of more than 36 weeks but less than 38 weeks?
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
The probability of "exactly" should be zero because we're dealing with a continuous distribution.
There are different ways to calculating the variance. My book says variance = (t-a)/(b-t) / 7
If there are multiple critical path, does that mean we need to find probability for each path?
@joshemman
3 жыл бұрын
Typically, you use the critical path with the largest variance.
How did you get 32 as the mean
Can you find the critical path if the only given is optimistic, most likely , and pessimistic?
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
You must know the predecessors as well.
Hey Joshua nice video, one question: what if the Time t is not an integer...? Round it up...?
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
Time does not have to be an integer. So only round if necessary or required.
You save my job dude! Aahahah
Thanks maan
Hi, how did you get the values from optimistic to pessimistic? Thank you
@joshemman
3 жыл бұрын
Let's just say they are already given to you.
@markjoons
Жыл бұрын
How can we get it from the given first value
Hi Joshua, may i know what software you use to animate the chart?
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
I use PowerPoint for the charts but I edit and annotate using Camtasia Studio.
Helpful, thanks. Do you have a Google Sheet template to do this or can you recommend one?
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
You mean, to calculate the normal probabilities?
@ZoePaal
Жыл бұрын
@@joshemman Thx for the reply. The whole thing actually. From the table for calculating variance to calculating those z scores
why do you use standard deviation? when do you not use it?
@geraldobakhume3904
3 жыл бұрын
SD is used to calculate the probability. The Z formula.
what should i do if the expected time is NOT an integer? thanks
@joshemman
2 жыл бұрын
Nothing differently. It just makes calculations more challenging.
sir i have one question, at 2:47 u got the value of P = 0,8508 from the table, how u get that value? and what the table is that? i don't understand, would u like to explain me please... thank you.
@joshemman
4 ай бұрын
It is the Z-table (the standard normal table). You can find them online if you do a simple Google search.
How did you compute for the area???
@joshemman
8 ай бұрын
It was obtained from the Z table.
How do we find the area for a certain value of z
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
See if this helps: kzread.info/dash/bejne/opN_o9KjoNyoeKg.html
thanks like
Importantly, if 36 weeks promises %90 chance success of the project, is that mean 32 weeks promise %80 chance of success?
@joshemman
5 жыл бұрын
32 is the mean. It promises 50% chance of success.
@AkinveNazIrlanda
5 жыл бұрын
@@joshemman Okay. Can we use this technique in also construction sector for activity and project estimations? Some people says it is not convenient because of %50 chance. Let say, still we choose this technique for application. What would be the good part to use PERT in that field? Thanks.
@skylarkenneth2407
5 жыл бұрын
@@AkinveNazIrlanda PERT can be used in a construction setting, that's what I inferred from reading my textbook. PERT originated from the military with unknown duration of tasks to be completed in a research and development environment. PERT was designed for uncertainties. However, using historical data or logic to construct reasonable time estimates for task duration is a big plus. If you look at the stats in the video, 4 more weeks for +40% success rate...seems worth the wait.
Can anyone please say how to a,m and b from the forward and backward diagram
@joshemman
5 ай бұрын
a, m, and b must be given to you. You cannot find them from the nework diagram.
Why (a+4m+b)/6? Is the 6 is fixed or this can be changed?
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
The 6 is fixed. It's a weighted average. The weights are a: 1 m: 4 b: 1 Total: 6
@bmtamim7818
Жыл бұрын
@@joshemman Thanks a lot❤️
How did you get the mean of 32?
@joshemman
11 ай бұрын
By adding up the expected time for critical activities.
Hi, how do you get the z score of 90%?
@rahults1064
2 жыл бұрын
in the table we need to check which value has .90 In table .8997 was close to .90 so we take z as 1.28
@rei-fg1kk
2 жыл бұрын
@@rahults1064 thank you
at 3:01 how did you find the .3632
@studytimewithjency
8 ай бұрын
www.math.arizona.edu/~rsims/ma464/standardnormaltable.pdf
Hi Joshua, Is there a reason why are we dividing by 6? It is always 6 no matter the number of activities?
@joshemman
10 ай бұрын
Yes. We always divide by 6 no matter the number of activities. The expected value is a weighted average. “a” has a weight of 1 “m” has a weight of 4 “b” has a weight of 1. Total weight = 1 + 4 + 1 = 6
@shresthai3515
10 ай бұрын
Oh thank you very much. @@joshemman
@andrewmurschel2608
3 ай бұрын
I had this same question. Glad it was already answered :)
Where can I find the z chart?
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
Just Google "Z table"
Is it always divided by 6 ?
@joshemman
3 жыл бұрын
Yes!
How did you find the mean of 32?
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
The mean is found by adding up the Expected Times for critical activities.
@aricleekirsten724
Жыл бұрын
@@joshemman Thank you sir!
Most uncertain activities is which one????
@joshemman
4 жыл бұрын
The one with the largest variance (or range).
Hello, what if we want a 99.99% probability of completing the project on time, when we should begin?
@joshemman
10 ай бұрын
You can use your table or use =NORMSINV(0.9999) in Excel. This will return a Z score of approximately 3.72.
@kennethkayeramos2858
10 ай бұрын
@@joshemman I'm confused sir, why dont we use the 3.69 and also the 3.70, 3.71, or either 3.73. They all have the same
@joshemman
10 ай бұрын
@@kennethkayeramos2858 Are you using table or software?
@kennethkayeramos2858
10 ай бұрын
@@joshemman table, sir.
Sir, I'm a Vietnamese student. Can you explain to me why there is 0.8508? 2:46
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
You can use the z-table (1.0 under 0.04) as shown in 2:46. Or you can use Google Sheets =NORM.S.DIST(1.04).
@marianna3876
Жыл бұрын
@@joshemman thank you. Appreciate your help ^_^
Any utech student here?
Still lost
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
Where are you heading for exactly?
This is exactly what i am looking for! Great presentation! Keep making video to help others like me, who is trying to figure out what is missing on my book 🤣🤣🤣 youtube is really a great help to students! Thank you so much!