Do you agree with my predictions? Or do you think I'm totally wrong? Write your predictions for Rounds 13 and 14 and the overall results of the tournament here in the comments!

I actually think that Gukesh v Alireza will be quite unbalanced. It is not in Alireza’s nature to “play solidly”. Now that “there is no reason to play risky”, there is no reason to “play solidly” either. He has said both after wins and losses: “I have nothing left to lose. ” I imagine, then, that he will be trying to have fun, to play creatively. This is less taxing for him as it is what he wants to do. I feel like this is where he would have a better chance to win. In my opinion, a decisive result (in whichever direction) is more likely than a draw.

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

Maybe! We will see!

@rishiaman2288

9 күн бұрын

well

Hikaru or Gukesh will win

I have a strong feeling that Gukesh is going to give a big surprise yet again, either by winning or just losing.

@hellstenlight9454

Ай бұрын

quite insightful.

@darkwarlord3224

Ай бұрын

Gukesh will win against Alireza easy!

@rohitashmishra6761

Ай бұрын

​@@darkwarlord3224it is not easy but it is a must because if he draws then there will be tiebreaks. No one can beat hikaru in tiebreaks.

@shiba0737

Ай бұрын

Well well well what we got is a win!🎉

Gukesh will DEFINITELY play for the win against Alireza in round 13, and I think he will get it indeed. I agree that Hikaru and Ian will draw, and so will Fabiano, leaving Gukesh as the sole leader with nepo and Hikaru half a point behind, and Caruana half a point behind them. In the final round, Hikaru will do anything in his power to get the win against Gukesh but I doubt he’ll get it, and if he doesn’t the only way Gukesh doesn’t win is if Ian wins against Caruana with the black pieces. now, I wonder, as Fabiano is at this point a point and a half behind Gukesh, what interest does he have in playing for the win? he will play solid and give Nepo zero chances, thus making Gukesh win the candidates 2024.

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

That’s a possible scenario, yes. Although at that point Fabi would be not 1.5 points behind Gukesh, but 1 point behind.

@Gambit9020

Ай бұрын

If Gukesh manages to stay out of time trouble he has serious chances to win the whole tournament

@ChessGrandPasta

Ай бұрын

@@MustreaderChesssorry, I miss counted LoL

I think no one should ever predict a draw for Alireza. Nepo caught on that his opening prep was flimsy and he was always entering complex middlegames and running into his poor form. Nepo was frighteningly inconsistent in his games and Pragg was playing insane chess all the time. I expected Fabi to latch on to his chances considering his form this year, but you were right for this one. Finally, I expected Hikaru and Gukesh to keep chances open in case Fabi overpresses(if Rd13 was all draws).

Hikaru can play the bongcloud and surprise everyone

Appreciate your analysis ❤

great video quality, i respect your predictions

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

Appreciate it!

I feel like you are down playing Gukesh v Alireza. Gukesh has already won on demand in this tournament against abasov, and as we have seen this year, Alireza is a bit vulnerable. A win there, might just seal it for Gukesh, as Hikaru might then over press the next game (he'll fancy his chances in tie breaks) and might lose. PS: This might be my Indian bias ,but I'm really hoping to see this 17 year old be the youngest world championship challenger (and hopefully youngest world champion).

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

That would be a great story arc for Gukesh for sure

I am watching this after knowing the results of the tournament, but still can appreciate your objective analysis. And I feel great respect for you learning that you had to flee Russia after criticizing Putin. You are a courageous man. An I also see that you are fond of cats! A good man you are!

You seem quite sensible in your predictions, so good for you!

The top three prizes are €48000, €36000 and €24000. That's 10K of difference respectively so YES, THEY WILL FIGHT and FIGHT HARD. I know I would.

Wrong about 13 round gukesh will go all out to win as he knows he has a chance to seal it with out of form alireza. Also pragg has nothing to lose so will be trying to prove a thing or two against fabi. U mayb right about hikaru n napo. Which means guki goes into final round leading. In final round he may opt for a draw against hika. But nepo will have to go all out if he has to catch up. Hika will also have to go all out assuming guki has won round 13 against alireza. Round 13.my prediction: guki 8.5. nepo and hikaru 8. Pragg and fab 7. Round 14. Guki and hikaru draw or hika win...if hika wins he is champ...guki only needs a draw.. nepo loses against fabi in a must win situation if he wants to be champ . . Guki winner

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

Maybe!

i agree with everything except naka/gukesh in the final round. if any of the three leaders start winning, and very likely when fabi goes all in, theres nothing else for the other two to play for besides a full point.

I predict we all win...we being the fans of the royal chess!

These are well thought out predictions. If things go logically I can see this happening. But nerves often decide the final rounds of this events. Whoever can hold it together best will win. That could be any of the top 4 but I will go with Hikaru since I want to predict someone. Hikaru keeps saying he isn't as nervous as the other players since he considers this tournament a side job compared to his main job of streaming. I will take him at his word.

Very solid arguments, for sure. And yes, I believe this is the most likely result. However, you left out one extremely relevant point out of your reasoning, that is, the fact that this is an obvious conclusion and very easily foreseen. And, as such, other players would have the same capacity to reach this conclusion. So, let s say you re Gukesh and you know that Fabiano will most likely have to go all in in the last round and, because of that, will most likely lose. That means that you, Gukesh, will ALSO need to go all in. Then, which one would you prefer: to go all in against Hikaru in the last round with black or to do it against Alireza with white? And , dont forget your only loss was against him? Me? If I were Gukesh I d try my luck with Alireza. And I think he ll win. That means that Fabiano may enter the final round without a chance and Nepo, on the other hand, will need to win. Therefore, he may overpress and he may lose. He didnt lose yet and he s due. And it will come in to he worst possible moment. Gukesh will then play some solid line against Hikaru and force a draw. Maybe he ll even win again because Hikaru will be in need. The key is to win against Alireza. If he does that, Gukesh grabs it all. If he doesnt, then Nepo wins

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

Reasonable!

Nice analysis. Yes Ian is very solid as usual. For myself i would like to see Hikaru going for the world title. A tie-brake would be really nice too. On that, continue your good works ... your videos are always interesting thank you and good luck with your prediction.

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

Thanks!

@MultiMarcd

Ай бұрын

​@@MustreaderChess A great day in sight. I don't know if it's gonna be easy for you to follow, for myself i live in Canada not far from Toronto. We gonna have crazy chess ... so good luck with Nepo. By the way, it would be nice to have more info about some Russian players that we don't see too much ( Karjakin -a great player, whatever his words, Essipenko and some others that you know more then me) anyway have a great day with chess.

I think Gukesh will go all in against Alireza because he doesn't have better chances in tiebreaks in rapid time format. So, his best bet is to go for win against Alireza. Moreover, he is not a solid player, he thrives on complications. Unless he gets into timr trouble, he will win imo.

You need to make 1,5 out of the last 2 games to win the tournament. If you want to avoid a tiebreak with 4 players, again you need 1,5 points. And there are players who prefer not to go for a tiebreak. Round 13 might get pretty interesting.

I think Fabi has to push for a win in rd 13. Otherwise he has to gamble on both Nepo and Gukesh drawing.

3 tie breakers after round 14, no sole leaders. My prediction, maybe hikaru or neop wins in tie breaks. As i am Indian, so i hope from bottom of my heart for gukesh to win as a sole leader after 14 round. If not may good chess wins at kast.

I don't think anyone in the top contender will play for a draw. They will keep an eye on if someone lose it, but even Fabi and Gukesh, I am pretty certain will push for a win 🏆

@rohitashmishra6761

Ай бұрын

Hikaru will definitely play for draws because he wants tiebreaks. He is better in shorter time controls.

@Wannabe_author

Ай бұрын

I disagree, gukesh will push for a win in round 13 except him everyone else will settle for a draw. Round 14 everyone will play for a win

Gukesh Alireza is not a draw. 😂😂 Alireza will give chances and it's on Gukesh to take them. Or Gukesh can even outplay him. Time pressure can again be a factor.

Rd 13 Ian vs Hikaru - Draw Gukesh vs Alireza - Someone wins Fabi vs Pragg - Draw Rd 14 Hikaru vs Gukesh - Hikaru Wins Ian vs Fabi - Ian wins

Sounds logical, It could be, however, that Nakamura will notice that Yan is winning and press as well and lose, and in the end Yan and gukesh will have a tiebreak, which i predict yan to win

Gukesh has some chances considering his match up with Alireza who is not in a great touch. Ian vs Naka looks like a draw. Fabi will try to win against Pragg that's the only way he can join with leaders. So after 13 rounds, most likely gukesh will be leading and Ian, Naka, fabi half a point behind chasing. Last round pairing are insane, Naka Vs Gukesh Ian vs Fabi. Gukesh will be solid to force a draw, Ian and Fabi will havre to play for win a draw won't do anything for them. So we might go to tie breaks with Gukesh vs Ian/Fabi. It's hard to predict who wins the tiebreaks.😅😅

Gukesh

Loved these predictions. I tend to agree with them and similarly hope Ian will win.

i have no predictions, and i don't really have predictions, but i just hope that Fabi will win this Candidates 2024 tournament, and that he also becomes the new and next world chess champion.

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

It would definitely be well-deserved!

Gukesh should be playing for a win vs Ali. He has black vs Hikaru in the last round, and he’s an underdog in tie breaks against all of the remaining players.

@chrisf5828

Ай бұрын

There are no tie-breaks for first place. They are only to sort out positions 2 through 8 after the tournament is over

@mikemck4796

Ай бұрын

@@chrisf5828 Isn’t there a playoff with shorter time controls? Thats what I was referring to as tie breakers.

If gukesh wins R13 I favor him, if he draws I favor naka. Naka is heavily favored in tie breaks and he plays with white in R14.

No ,fabi will probably go all in with Pragg,but not with Nepo

I predict Gukesh will win today's game and wil win the tournament . I am a Tamilan and Gukesh is also same , but I am not predicting because of that. I predict only because of the remaining games and Gukesh's form. He is a under-dog from the beginning, but he will surprise every body at the end. Yes he will create a chess history by winning the candidate as the youngest person ever.

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

Gukesh's form is crazy good indeed!

Gukesh might lose against Alireza if he pushes too much. With pressure draw seems to be the likeliest result. Fabi may have no choice but to push for the win. Ian and Hikaru will take the draw.

You underestimate the fighting spirit of the young Indians. They did not come here to make risk-free draws in the manner of Western GMs.

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

I hope that they won’t!

Hikaru for the win! Huge Naka fan here

I disagree. I also hope Ian will win but you got the dynamics wrong. Alireza never plays safe, just not his style, and he also hasn’t been good. Gukesh will go after him and because he has played incredibly well, there’s a high chance that he wins. Nepo, Fabi and Naka know this and will expect Gukesh to win. They will also think that if Gukesh wins, a draw in round 13 will not be enough so all of them will play for a win. They won’t play cautiously. Actually decisive results are quite likely in the Nepo Naka and Pragg Fabi games. In the latter I think Fabi will lose because he will overpress. In the former anything can happen - if both Nepo and Naka play openly either of them can win - but I think a Ian win is more likely because he has been accurate and Naka mainly scored against the weaker ones or Fabi , who is not in a good shape. So Gukesh and Ian win and Fabi loss in round 13 would be my prediction. Then both Gukesh and Ian will draw with black in round 14 and will go for tiebreaks. Ian is the favorite in rapid

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

That would be an exciting scenario!

Gukesh will win against Alireza and eventually take this tournament because everyone else will draw in the last 2 rounds

I predict Hikaru will win.

nice appartement you have! Mountain view.. What exactly location is this?

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

Almaty, Kazakhstan! A very beautiful place

Gukesh or Nepo will win

Round 13: Ian-Hikaru 1/2 Prag-Fabi 1/2 Vidit-Aba (who cares? 1/2) Gukesh-Alireza 1-0 Round 14: Hikaru-Gukesh 1-0 Alireza-Vidit 1-0 Aba- Prag 1-0 Fabi-Nepo 1-0 Tie-Break: Hikaru-Fabi 0-1 Fabi-Hikaru 1/2 Winner Fabiano Caruana

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

Interesting outcomes! We will see!

@blueinsane8959

Ай бұрын

Bro U r results make fabi only in 8.5 points.Hikaru at 9 points.How can tie breaks come😅😅🤣🤣🤣

I hope Ian will win!!

Good choise to say pak futin and go out from totalitarian country. And good luck with chess and streaming.

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

Thanks!

Hikaru or Gukesh or Nepo or Caruana will win.

@MustreaderChess

Ай бұрын

Hard to argue!

Gukesh is solid but he does sometimes blunder on time pressure. So far Nepo looks rock solid and he or Hikaru can win this tournament