just imagine, you got absolutely destroyed in 45 moves by some guy and get tilted, and then find out that you held for 45 moves against stockfish

@vintce6019

Жыл бұрын

​@ Assuming the WHOLE game is Mate in 45 moves and you play the best moves, then I have no complaints.

@fireandiron4181

Жыл бұрын

@ If you finish a game in 8 moves and it's 100% engine accuracy, that's one thing. But 45 moves in a row 100% engine accuracy? That is unheard of.

Жыл бұрын

@Oscar csdj You know nothing to chess, so stop spreading lies: 1) The game was only 30 moves (first 15 moves were theory). 2) Chessbase's correlation stats do not only consider only Stockfish, but as many engines at as many settings as people cared to compare the game with. In Niemann's case, people have been all over his games and many such comparisons have been made. 3) So the 100% correlation in Chessbase database isn't with Stockfish alone, but with any combination of a big number of engines. If you compare the moves against 50 different engines there's bound to be one of them suggesting your move, so it's much easier to get 100% correlation here. So 100% correlation here doesn't mean Niemann is playing exactly like Stockfish, it means he is playing a move at least one of the numerous engines is suggesting. Basically this proves absolutely nothing and no conclusions can be drawn from this.

@thomasibach234

Жыл бұрын

@ wow you’re more precise than the best chess players of all time random guy on KZread congratulations

@colorsofsound4782

Жыл бұрын

​@ Niemann had multiple tournaments with higher engine correlation than Magnus and Kasparov, not just 1 game. Obviously it does not prove anything that he has mutlitple 100 correlation (not just accuracy) games whilst Carlsen and Fabiano have almost none

Props to the guys that lasted 45 moves against someone with 100% accuracy

@TiptronicSS

Жыл бұрын

The chess has spoken for itself!

@1fast72nova

Жыл бұрын

I was curious... If he lasted 45 moves against 100% what was that person's score... That seems to be a very important question

@krosserq3737

Жыл бұрын

@@1fast72nova it doesnt really connect he could have won position by move 30 and fully accurate for next 15 moves which were just transition, it would make his oponent be max 66% which is fine

@1fast72nova

Жыл бұрын

@@krosserq3737 but what was the actual number. Could be 66... Could be 98

@ThePhDSpanish

Жыл бұрын

@@1fast72nova They were at 62%, they show the result at 28:46 - so in the lower range of a 'Super GM' average engine correspondence

The thing I’m most impressed with is the dude who managed to take Stockfish to a 45 move endgame.

@vintce6019

Жыл бұрын

The dude was probably hanging on for dear life.

@radim22

Жыл бұрын

Plot twist: he used Stockfish as well.

@xxxx85

Жыл бұрын

Hahahaha TRUE! 😂😂

@TheBest14184

Жыл бұрын

@ I agree to a certain extent. The issue is other players should also be getting 100% if it’s that easy to get one of those moves, but they don’t. Pretty much all your arguing is that all the super GMs are so bad they can’t find one of the moves from hundreds of different engines, only Hans can.

@TheBest14184

Жыл бұрын

@ if anything to me that suggests he could be attempting to hide the fact he is cheating by not using the best stock fish move everytime, but using a different engine for a certain proportion of moves. So no singular engine will match exactly what he plays, making detection of cheating harder.

Hans is not a cheater, he just has a good gaming chair

@prashanth1047

Жыл бұрын

😂😂😂

@swapode

Жыл бұрын

Is it a really tiny bar stool? Just to be clear, I'm talking small enough to go up someone's backside...

@lancetheking7524

Жыл бұрын

And it has a vibrate feature

@zTeaTheCoffee

Жыл бұрын

original joke

Garry Kasparov was so good that he intentionally had his percentage at 69%

@richardahmyt8683

Жыл бұрын

Musk level geni right there.

@zibberebbiz

Жыл бұрын

nice

@geekculture5308

Жыл бұрын

nice

@pranavkolambkar

Жыл бұрын

nice

@prajwalbharambe343

Жыл бұрын

nice

Congratulations to the player who managed to hold 45 moves against stockfish

@hemanghuria4956

Жыл бұрын

Plot twist- Opponent was also using stockfish

@vy282

Жыл бұрын

lmao

@ricardodossantos1642

Жыл бұрын

@@hemanghuria4956 😂😂

@isasadiqov7721

Жыл бұрын

Legend🤣

@silas3463

Жыл бұрын

Plot twist 2: When Gotham shows engine games it’s Hans’s games against other robots

Magnus: Hans is getting 100%? I’m getting 72! Hikaru: magnus is get 72%? I’m getting 61! Me: you guys are getting percents???

@CaliforniaCarpenter7

Жыл бұрын

Lol, sounds about like my chess playing 😆

@hseanhill

Жыл бұрын

My games justs gives a popup that says why did you run this?

@leon3230

Жыл бұрын

I get basis points

@zlonewolf

9 ай бұрын

0.001% is still % just not a whole percent.😅

Not only does the chess speak for itself, it plays for itself.

He really did pull some great moves out of his ass

@EricM93

Жыл бұрын

morse code thru the ass to 45 straight stockfish moves.

@thanos5220

Жыл бұрын

@@EricM93 lmfao

@rohmadhariyadi1418

Жыл бұрын

Literally 😂

@-_Nuke_-

Жыл бұрын

XD

@Lamonte424

Жыл бұрын

😂😂😂😂

At this pace, Hans will be the World Champion in no time. As long as he doesn't forget to replace the batteries

@CircoSalvona

Жыл бұрын

Was going to like your comment but… Casper’s number!

@alveraan1

Жыл бұрын

I wanted to like this, but you currently have 69 likes. Nice.

@sharklite3316

Жыл бұрын

Giving like just because it will reach hans elo rating gains

@Myrslokstok

Жыл бұрын

He can but not for moore then half the games.

@arendlanser8818

Жыл бұрын

Maybe he should replace anal beads from time to time as well.

Congrats to hikaru on scoring 100% on this video, he got a perfect score by making us all watch one hour of him messing with his computer..

@davidgarcia2016

Жыл бұрын

I didn't need to be called out like that today, damn

@alejandrohagad628

Жыл бұрын

FREE MY BOI HANS

@jameslorman4715

Жыл бұрын

An hour ? I skipped a ton..... didn't everyone ?

When your moves correlate 100% with stockfish and you cant explain why you made them in the post game interview.

Hans is really buzzing with excitement every time he plays.

@michaelmurray6577

Жыл бұрын

Bruh 😂

@El-E009

Жыл бұрын

💀💀💀

@Proud_Troll

Жыл бұрын

Buzzing with pleasure. 🤤

@scampig9715

Жыл бұрын

in the rear end chess speaks for itself

@bobbystipancic1710

Жыл бұрын

Bbbbbbb4

How does Hans look older than Magnus? The stress speaks for itself..

@frostdemon6787

Жыл бұрын

That's because he is

@Sasoridellasabbia

Жыл бұрын

@@frostdemon6787 You think he cheated on the birth certificate?

@rexsthegreat22

Жыл бұрын

@@Sasoridellasabbia maybe that’s when he found out he’s skilled at something

@frostdemon6787

Жыл бұрын

@@Sasoridellasabbia Oh shoot sorry I thought you said Hikaru, anyways yeah Hans looks really old for a 19yr

@nia.d3356

Жыл бұрын

Short telomeres

51:18 Hikaru enters one of his two best games of his career in the engine to analyse. He expects (hopes,wishes...) for an 100%. Ok, maybe 95. ...gets a 66 :D

@samnass

Жыл бұрын

​@Rvve Duio Wow! a smart comment ! worth repeating many times!

@novacatz

Жыл бұрын

This engine correlation is something new and innovative and so folks still calibrate how to interpret the percentages. 66 still stacks update as Super GM and world class performance...

@giovanni_7191

Жыл бұрын

@Rvve Duio That's not a good joke regarding this situation: A good joke would be like "Why the frustration Mr. Hikaru? After all, just 5 seconds ago you said "2648. I wasn't a very good player back then" :) Or: Hikaru's new nickname: "Mr.-best-game-ever-66". (already circulating amongst the members of the small SuperGMs society) Or: After the video session Nakamura turns the laptop off. Lowens the screen Lowens his stare... (Slow moves). "Damn... I thought I knew this game well... My whole life is a lie... " :) Or: next morning,after a bad sleep with nighmares, he wakes and goes to the bathroom. Goes to the mirror. Looks to the mirror. Talks to the mirror: "Sixty Six? SIXTY SIX? You're just a HUSTLER! Not a Grandmaster!" :) etc Ps. yeah i know i have a rich imagination...

@touaxwat46-15

Жыл бұрын

@@giovanni_7191 shut up u r the one who is cringe there

@danielcrase

Жыл бұрын

Hikaru is also just good because of his play style

My opinion: Hans was a regular iM who was super desperate to break into the GM barrier but just couldn't. So he started cheating and now that he is playing with GMs and super GMs, he cannot stop cheating or else he will be exposed. I mean just judging by how idiotic his post game analysis was in Sinquefield, it kinda makes sense.

@zadh

Жыл бұрын

I think you have a point here.

@ChessJourneyman

Жыл бұрын

He did the same to make a breaktrough online...

@ncs9753

Жыл бұрын

If Hans is not banned for life, chess is basically ruined.

@simonramdath1213

Жыл бұрын

even from blitz and bullet you can see he isn't a regular IM. He's for sure strong, and that's what makes him a potentially dangerous cheater.

Жыл бұрын

Your opinion is absolutely stupid, because all the Yosha video and stats are filled with massive methodological mistakes. The biggest are: 1) Chessbase's correlation stats do not only consider only Stockfish, but as many engines at as many settings as people cared to compare the game with. In Niemann's case, people have been all over his games and many such comparisons have been made. 2) So the 100% correlation in Chessbase database isn't with Stockfish alone, but with any combination of a big number of engines. If you compare the moves against 50 different engines there's bound to be one of them suggesting your move, so it's much easier to get 100% correlation here. So 100% correlation here doesn't mean Niemann is playing exactly like Stockfish, it means he is playing a move at least one of the numerous engines is suggesting. Basically this proves absolutely nothing and no conclusions can be drawn from this.

It's not only that Hans gets high computer correlation scores, it's also that he struggles to explain his moves versus other potentially good moves when interviewed.

@Ricardo7250

Жыл бұрын

Yep. If you consistently make an effort to think through very complex positions then it's only natural that you can talk about it from the top off your head, sometimes too fast for other people to catch up (seriously, look at all the WCC interviews post game)

@brucewayne4172

Жыл бұрын

This is a big red flag tbh. Any other player of his level being interviewed, and they will rattle off like 3 15 depth alternate lines they considered before going with the move they did, or they will be like “yea I’m a huge idiot for playing that because after (insert 20 move line where there are -0.3 after)”

@Devilfish6666

Жыл бұрын

Yeah because even if he is fed say the entire top engine line for 5-6 moves, he will instinctively stop considering other moves and just try to figure out why this line is actually that great OTB. And then when say Alejandro Ramirez asks him but what about this or that move in this position then he has no clue why this is good/bad because he never thought about it for too long and even if he did he does not have the understanding of a super GM to come up with the full proper analysis why this move is good/bad.

@ifbfmto9338

Жыл бұрын

@@Devilfish6666 Yes His interviews are suspicious without question But these past events are far, far more damning, I am now nearly certain Hans has cheated OTB in the past That’s still not proof whether or not he cheated in the Sinquefield cup, and we will probably never know for sure But it’s clear Hans is a serial cheater

@DjKryx

Жыл бұрын

Yeah man, some people are just bad at speaking in front of cameras, i would fold for sure

The amount of moves Hans played at 100% correlates to the number of beads at that moment

@itsapplesaucetoaboss8216

Жыл бұрын

Gaped

@robbie_

Жыл бұрын

Hold on to your butts...

@oosmanbeekawoo

Жыл бұрын

You don't realise even when you play Stockfish moves that doesn't mean you are cheating-provided you memorised those moves before the play.

@korditsch7792

Жыл бұрын

@@oosmanbeekawoo You don't realise that it is practically impossible to memorise the whole game because there is so many variations on the board.

@oosmanbeekawoo

Жыл бұрын

@@korditsch7792 When you are at high level, it is _imperative_ that you memorise most of the book moves, and he admitted himself he got lucky to have looked that one up!

Hans: The chess speaks for itself. The chess: heEeeE's cHEatiiiNg...

10 games with 100% correlation, 23 games at 90+ while other super GMs hardly have one or two games at that level really shows Hans is the GOAT of chess.

@mayfort8573

Жыл бұрын

This is honestly sad to see. I love Hans postgame interviews so much.

@alextrust1186

Жыл бұрын

Haters gonna hate

@Danthrax81

Жыл бұрын

You're so certain he is magically as good as a chess engine?

@digikrypt3566

Жыл бұрын

@FLIXX REMIXX’D very obvious sarcasm r/woooosh

@MArk-yn4sp

Жыл бұрын

Anomaly identified but still no practical proof of foulplay.

I mean... playing 45 top engine moves in a row is.... impressive, to say the least.

@edntz

Жыл бұрын

Prep. hans just has a perfect memory.

@lepus1371

Жыл бұрын

@@edntz prep doesn't go 45 moves

@autosemimatic6071

Жыл бұрын

Pov: u dont know what prep is

@edntz

Жыл бұрын

In theory, if you are capable of memorizing all possible moves played till move 45 by your opponent and also memorize all moves to make yourself, then it does go to move 45. But of course, my comment was merely a joke.

@umangabadal7700

Жыл бұрын

@@edntz hans just know 10^123 position....more than atoms in the universe.....this theory makes sense

Hikaru being disappointed with a 2/3 correlation of his moves with the engine is so funny.

If you looked closely when they showed the tournaments where he played over 70% for several in a row, he had many games over 80 and over 90%. It wasn't just the 100% ones that are suspicious. He's clearly cheated in many more. Firmly on team Magnus now.

@dark_sunset

Жыл бұрын

He clearly cheated? Because of some statistics? That is the response of an ignorant human who operates based on assumptions. Innocent until PROVEN guilty, not suspected. I won't pretend like I know this man cheated because I don't know it, and neither do you. People like you are the reason innocent people have died throughout history because someone wanted to go after someone else before they had absolute proof.

@stoppernz229

Жыл бұрын

The math and logic in this video are just plain wrong....

@Awardeez

Жыл бұрын

Really? Why dont you explain genius

@stoppernz229

Жыл бұрын

@@Awardeez Theyre not matching his moves to a single engine but what ever engine happened to match hos move that turn. There is an assumption that Magnus is and always will be better than everyone else. Niemann has played live games since against top players and won, there has been no drop in his skill , as you would expect if he wasnt cheating anymore, u less you think his cheat method is so undetectable that he continues to use it even umder extreme scrutiny. It stretches the vounds of belief. Magnus did something cowardly when he slyly acused him. As for cheating in the past when he was a kid, ive seen videos of magnus as an adult feedingovers to a kid so he could beat a chess hustler, ie cheating. so there goes that argument too.

@MCoTEDDY

Жыл бұрын

@@stoppernz229 just curious what extreme scrutiny are you talking about? Bc at the Magnus game they didn't even have metal detectors ...

It's not just about opponents. 1. When Carlsen was asked which player he would most like to play in a match he said Fischer. 2. Fischer was ranked extremely high in accuracy by engines not just in his famous winning streak. 3. Keep in mind this was in the era before clock increments and delays. It's more difficult to maintain high accuracy with no increment or delay.

@vintce6019

Жыл бұрын

Fischer was praised by the engines Then there's Hans who's vibing with them

@samnass

Жыл бұрын

@Silent Man I've heard they are comparing engine moves to Hans database now to double check engines accuracy...

@Sugarrushhh90

Жыл бұрын

What you are saying it’s just not true. It is about opponents, Ill give you example. If you play a noob and he gives his pieces for free of course computer move will be taking the piece, so does gm move. But when the opponent does not makes mistakes it’s way more difficult to find out the engine move.

@dannygjk

Жыл бұрын

@@Sugarrushhh90 You are comparing patzers to GMs.

@Sugarrushhh90

Жыл бұрын

@@dannygjk i am telling you that you don’t understand and I am explaining so you can understand. Do you understand?

So Hans is far, far better than anyone who has ever lived. But only every once in awhile.

@eatingjr1805

Жыл бұрын

only when he feels that tingle

@ghosthunter0950

Жыл бұрын

@@eatingjr1805 only when he's vibing.

@alienrenders

Жыл бұрын

Only when his batteries don't die.

@darkstudios001

Жыл бұрын

To be fair, statistics and stochastics are like, predicated on that

@AndrewH1994

Жыл бұрын

only when he’s really plugged in

« It’s really a pain in the ass » H. Niemann, 2022

@hugocarrin4509

Жыл бұрын

"Looks like i fucked myself, literally" H. Niemann, 2022

@ruddyxmax

Жыл бұрын

Literally!!!

@syros007

Жыл бұрын

Lol

@mrcpu9999

Жыл бұрын

They found the beads. Had the Tesla T engraved on them.

@amark350

Жыл бұрын

Are you referencing the vibrator that’s up his butt sending him signals?

*Hikaru puts video on 1.5x speed* Me, who is already watching at 2X: oof

@notlisztening9821

Жыл бұрын

Would be fine, if the accent of the youtuber wouldn't be so intelligible

The closed captions have about a 10% accuracy rate.

I am consuming this chess drama in a very unhealthy manner.

@Fred-tz7hs

Жыл бұрын

nice checkmark

@IronFire116

Жыл бұрын

Same

@baggedcoleslaw

Жыл бұрын

Same

@troysalazar4849

Жыл бұрын

Hahaha naligaw ka boss

@ize7953

Жыл бұрын

Kamatis check! HAHAHAHHAHHA

Walking Hikaru through how to use ChessBase was like showing my dad how to make a Gmail account

@moriyokiri3229

Жыл бұрын

Yea great comparison, very fascinating

@grandmarquee

Жыл бұрын

And like your dad he'll still kick your ass. 😄

@mr.stella2745

Жыл бұрын

LMAO

@hansmahr8627

Жыл бұрын

It's funny because he's probably been using Chessbase for 20 years or so. It's the standard program that's used by all professional players.

@dracula7779

Жыл бұрын

Thank you

So many games at 100%, after playing for years under 65%. Hans really has made some unbelievable progress!

@Hecatonicosachoron

9 ай бұрын

He is still quite young... it's not surprising that he is improving a lot in his late teens and early 20s

@SchimbaChannel

8 ай бұрын

He is playing so many more games than all other gm's and his games are all much harder analysed. All this correlation is not a proof of anything. If Nieman studies more from stockfish moves, than he will play more like an engine by feel. All of the bests play mostly by feel and than calculate lines they see. Like Hikaru said, once you see it it's obvious. They(old gms, like Hikaru) have a problem cause when Hikaru was learning his 'feel' engines were not available. I think that we will see a big raise in these '100%' players as chess naturally evolves.

@e4jasperi

8 ай бұрын

@@SchimbaChannelthe Dewa Kippas strat, learn from the engines.

@hexillionvitry4762

7 ай бұрын

@@SchimbaChannel He's not playing more than the top 20 FIDE bro and it's not more hard analysed

@SchimbaChannel

7 ай бұрын

@@hexillionvitry4762 show me who exactly from top 20 FIDE attended as many open tournaments as Hans. I'll wait.

In my experience as a chess fan, no human puts it in the dead center move after move 30-40+ times in a row. With Magnus experience, it's prob very intuitive to feel/see that the moves he is facing are computer generated. Human players make mistakes, even mistakes in not exploiting opponents mistakes. That's what make chess fun, to play And watch. Must have been a very confusing moment when he realized he had lost that match against Hans

Magnus loves chess. It’s his life’s passion. I bet even when he loses, as much as it may hurt, he appreciates his opponent’s play. I doubted he made these accusations baseless. And glad to see that’s very likely the case.

@chrimony

Жыл бұрын

Magnus put his reputation on the line by doing this. That's what it took to get somebody who has been cheating for years caught. There really needs to be a lifetime ban for guys like Hans.

@grottphd9090

Жыл бұрын

possibly but it was also certainly a very frustrating loss for Magnus regardless, seeing as he was about to reach his long-time goal of 2900 and losing to a lower rated player was a big setback

@TheGluv4e

Жыл бұрын

@@grottphd9090 he's gonna get his points back when Hans gets caught with his stockfish buttplug

@andriuscibas

Жыл бұрын

@@chrimony he was caught, it was just shoved under the carpet

@Spikebert

Жыл бұрын

@@andriuscibas What source or evidence do you have for that?

Not Hans’ fault if his opponents keep running into his perfect 45 move prep

@joaocarlosdarosafagundes7482

Жыл бұрын

Considering his game against Magnus, we should have expected miraculous preparations from Hans.

@Zeromus725

Жыл бұрын

What lube does he prep with?

@AB-dd4jz

Жыл бұрын

@@Zeromus725 lube is cheating Hans don't cheat ;)

@Zeromus725

Жыл бұрын

@@AB-dd4jz Lube isn't cheating, it's a perfectly reasonable tool to reduce friction

@alkaholic4848

9 ай бұрын

4.5 inch prep

Note he takes about 20 seconds to find such amazing moves!!!

@alextrust1186

Жыл бұрын

I feel bad for doubting Magnus on his accusations

That's why Hans always says the chess speaks for itself since Hans would not be able to speak for it since it was not him that did the moves. If someone doesn't make the actual chess moves then how the heck can he analyze his own game without embarrassing himself. If he could publicly analyze his game with Magnus and it made sense then I would believe him that he did not cheat. Usually when you play a great chess game you are anxious to tell people how you did it, Hans was not anxious after his game with Magnus.

@spacecadetrl

Жыл бұрын

It's definitely a big tell

@nictamer8754

11 ай бұрын

Doesn’t mean anything

@iyivanov

8 ай бұрын

​​@@nictamer8754it means that you did something because someone told you to do so and you blindly followed without understanding what you were doing 😂 Hans is so full of himself. Usually GMs remember their great games and can explain again and again after years how great they played them. Hans never does that.

8.21% of Hans' games are at least 90% engine match and 2.49% are 100% engine match.

@marcelmattern7722

Жыл бұрын

Maybe he is the best chess player of all time. Just Kidding.

@bobtheslayer561

Жыл бұрын

That's unbelievable...

@Shipdacheese

Жыл бұрын

@@bobtheslayer561 It is impossible not unbelievable.

@ikillwithyourtruthholdagai2000

Жыл бұрын

@@Shipdacheese no its not impossible, its impossibly unprobable

@Shipdacheese

Жыл бұрын

@ Hans's rise through rating has been meteoric. He has games where he looks like an idiot and games (a lot of em) with 100% accuracy. His style has baffled pretty much all players who simply do not understand his moves. Can you imagine top GM's being baffled on some of his moves? On top of all this, he is being accused by Carlsen whom i never seen to behave like this. If this were Hikaru most people wouldn't bat an eye. If Hans is cheating he will be found eventually unless he has some sort of under the skin implant or something because all eyes will be on him and his games. Ofc he still just might be a genius and will become the strongest player in history in the years to come. We'll see but it's never a good idea to be put in this position...where you are either a genius or a cheater because one is more likely than the other.

Edit: Sorry everyone, my original comment was wrong and basically I am not even qualified to talk about this topic. Some people have given very plausible explanations, as to why my comment was not correct - Check the replys Original comment: So the Hans games correlating 100% with Stockfish in over 40 move games is just such a close to impossible coincidence. You have to play EXACTLY like Stockfish to achieve that, because if a person played better than stockfish, it would be less than 100% correlation.

@WorstDrummerNA

Жыл бұрын

This is such a good point.

@morelhunter3966

Жыл бұрын

Well said. This isnt caught red handed but Ill be damned if it isnt right next to it.

@zetacrucis681

Жыл бұрын

Chessbase's correlation stats do not only consider stockfish but as many engines at as many settings as people cared to compare the game with. In Niemann's case people have been all over his games and many such comparisons have been made. This will push the correlation score way up.

@Person01234

Жыл бұрын

@@zetacrucis681 All the way up to 100% right? I mean magnus and hikaru, probably barely anyone has ever run their games through.

@zelandakhniteblade5436

Жыл бұрын

Did you not notice that even in the supposedly 100% games, Hans did not play exactly like Stockfish? A good example is the ...Kb7 move that Hikaru spent some time over. Stockfish actually recommends ...Rh5 there but some lesser engines (Deep Fritz was one) suggest Kb7 *at this time control*. If you were to extend the analysis time beyond 600, most likely the lesser engines would see ...Rh5 too. The final number you get is dependant on the parameters you choose and the hardware you are running it on. I am not saying there is nothing potentially suspicious here, far from it, but I do think it needs further analysis, particularly as I trust Ken Regan somewhat more than what we are seeing here.

You have made such a complex subject easy enough to understand by us non-chess players. Thank you.

@tokeivo

Жыл бұрын

Be warned though, that statistics are not intuitive. While the "number of games played at 100% best engine moves" is a really important number, the "how many games in a row" segment was a very big "no no" in statistics - you can essentially "prove" anything by selecting the right sequence. It might be true that Hans cheated a lot in those games, but it also might not be. But it does prove that Hans is better at playing exactly like an engine, than any other player we've seen.

@thenukeduke6949

Жыл бұрын

@@tokeivo it's not a statistical proof, it's just 'laymans logic proof' and that's good too. You would expect that someone who cheats in such a poor way (generating those 100% and 90%+ outliers) would simply sometimes be tempted to turn cheats on for a period of time. The fact that he has a streak is sort of convincing if you believe he cheated in the first place. It's not basis for cheating on its own, her math is wrong, but it looks like thing human did, to turn on cheats for 5 consecutive tournements, then turn it off.

@tokeivo

Жыл бұрын

@@thenukeduke6949 that's... pretty much exactly what I said, isn't it?

We all know he cheated. What one must do now is recreate exactly how he "pulled it off" and we nominate you Hikaru!🤣

@ncs9753

Жыл бұрын

The funniest part is how there are many people, who obviously don't understand chess, statistics, or math, who still think that Hans is innocent.

@RassionellMaddman

Жыл бұрын

@@ncs9753 I don't get the proof that he's not just a genius player, like what I am gathering here is that when a genuine genius will show up he can be called a cheat and thrown out for his extreme accuracy (or her). That's just stupid.

@zosoart

Жыл бұрын

Someone has!

@benjamingoldstein14

Жыл бұрын

@@RassionellMaddman I think it also has to do with his behavior and the inconsistency of his play. Firstly, he has a track record of proven cheating in hundreds of online games. Secondly, he’s completely unable to provide analysis of his outstanding games, eg that against Magnus Carlsen. Finally, his OTB play is inconsistent, where some games he plays perfectly and others completely incompetent.

How does it feel when you win? Hans: I get a tingling sensation.

@zalo3479

Жыл бұрын

Ah you fucker 😂 made me spit coffe on my pc monitor

@dazey856

Жыл бұрын

😂😂😂

It might be interesting to examine the security measures used for the tournaments where he played suspiciously versus the security measures where he played more normally.

@ghosthunter0950

Жыл бұрын

I'd rather see them hire people attempting to cheat personally.

@chrimony

Жыл бұрын

There's already been an analysis that showed Hans's rating in over the board tournaments that were broadcast versus not broadcast. Huge difference.

@gaboelexo

Жыл бұрын

it doesnt matter, st louis said that he did not cheat, thats all

@rinslow

Жыл бұрын

Good idea!

@radicalrick9587

Жыл бұрын

@@gaboelexo *Well of course St Louis said that. "We investigated **_ourselves,_** our contest, and security checkpoints and found no wrongdoing".*

What are the odds of someone who cheated in his RECENT past end up statistically being the best chess player in the history of chess 😅

So did he just spend the whole pandemic studying computer moves? 😂

@dizzy8175

Жыл бұрын

all he had to do was spend time with his beads.

Usually Carlsen when he loses will acknowledge the good play of the opponent or his bad play. So he knows something not right

@alienrenders

Жыл бұрын

Yeah, this is something a lot of people don't seem to get. Magnus loves great play. He really likes when a player fights and finds a way to best him. Sure, he doesn't like to lose. But I've always seen him give credit. This time, it's different and we all know why.

Жыл бұрын

Minus Carlsen knows nothing. Minus Carlsen is a bad loser. That's all. His behavior is despicable.

@grumpytroll6918

Жыл бұрын

So option 1) Hans has the most advanced (and secret) over the board cheating mechanism ever invented by mankind: anal beads. He has been training for years to use this to beat the best players at all time controls, undetectably. Option 2) Magnus played bad because he was suspicious and distracted and lost to a 2700 rated player.

@commonsense1527

Жыл бұрын

@@grumpytroll6918 Why are these the only two options?

@grumpytroll6918

Жыл бұрын

@@commonsense1527 please add options you think are missing

At this point there are only two options: 1. Hans cheated. 2. Hans is the greatest chess player in recorded history.

@user-qh4dr1vy9d

Жыл бұрын

2. Hans had the greatest performance in the chess history according to her data.

@Infiltator2

Жыл бұрын

3 rd would be that the algorithm is wrong. But 2 and 3 are just not likely at all. I mean he is the same age as Firouzja. Everyone would have talked about Niemann if he would really be that good.

@84y87

Жыл бұрын

@@Infiltator2 Everyone *is* talking about Hans …

@luisfelipesalas8533

Жыл бұрын

nah, 100% Korelation in 45 moves is impossible. Not even for the best performance of his life. Hikaru, in the best performance of his life got to 80% in fewer moves.

@Rassettaja

Жыл бұрын

I'm thinking the algorithm is wrong and the games he got 100% the opponents had very low scores dipping down to the 18%. Just like why Fischer had such a high %, because his opponents were worse back then. The one with 45 moves and 65% from the opponent is very sus but in my mind he's innocent until proven guilty.

Love your channel Hikaru, you’re a rockstar in the chess world man..!!

Not a chess player but I enjoy watching the game and also learning about it low key when I have time. I admire your social grace and sportmanship. I'm a fan.

Congratulations to Hans “The 100%” Niemann, the chess truly speaks for itself

@Stain3610

Жыл бұрын

How ironic indeed.... The chess really does speak for itself...

@zenyatta5064

Жыл бұрын

@@Stain3610 chess speaks for itself

@tuneandsmash9346

Жыл бұрын

The chess has to speak for itself because Niemann can't understand his own moves.

@boxofcans461

Жыл бұрын

I can't wait for chess to testify against Hans 🤣

@zenyatta5064

Жыл бұрын

@@boxofcans461 chess speaks for itself

I have a degree in mathematics. In general stuff being shown in the video can be used as evidence. Statistical analysis is not a tool for proving a specific conclusion but for showing if there is irregularity. A lot of math rigor has to be done to substantiate these irregularities. It should be possible to put all GM games through and calculate the normal range and the outlier frequency and determine the probability that any GM plays with the consistency as Hans does. Once irregularity is determined you have to consider the reasons these irregularities exist. Sometimes there are multiple possibilities, though cheating is the most obvious consideration.

@victor6010

Жыл бұрын

the best players in the world at their peak are not even close to hans 😂🤣

@Ainlore

Жыл бұрын

@@victor6010 even the publicly know cheater not even close to hans

@davidanoble

Жыл бұрын

The answer is obvious. Stockfish is getting all its moves from Hans using an earpiece.

@ZyNeEnZyNe

Жыл бұрын

I got a phd in youtube commenting and from my expertise I can conclude that: Stockfish is probably not a human, probably.

@LaymensLament

Жыл бұрын

🙏 i argue something similar. even tho it looks bad, i think it is bad precedent to start talking about this stuff before a more rigorous analysis of data has been made.

This is not proof in the literal sense, but its near irrefutable evidence. I’ll be interested to hear what other GM’s think on this matter

@ncs9753

Жыл бұрын

Fabi, Nepo, HIkaru, Levon, etc have all insinuated that Hans is a cheater already... it's not just Magnus.

@Darth-Shadow

Жыл бұрын

Doesn't matter. Either it is evidence or it's speculation. All this is speculation no matter how you spin it..

@sp33dou

Жыл бұрын

People have been put behind the bars with far less circumstantial evidence.

@joelwilliamson3322

Жыл бұрын

@@Darth-Shadow this is evidence. It is not conclusive evidence, but it certainly is not speculation only

For me the most interesting statistic is Hans' performance at the 2021 Third Sat Mix 157 (line 21 in the spreadsheet) where, apparently, he had computer correlations of over 90% three times in the same tournament, along with five very average (at least for a top GM) performances in the other six rounds. I am not saying this proves he is cheating, but it does raise questions. The National Open 2021 (line 29) also makes interesting reading.

Жыл бұрын

The problem is that you don't compare Niemann results with the results of other players. It's sad to see that you believe this ridiculous video, that is filled with big methodological mistakes. Yosha's "analysis" has no value at all. She never compares Niemann's results with other players results. Carlsen and Caruana, for example, in their World Championship Match, were almost constantly over 95% accuracy, in each game.

@janniknielsen9292

Жыл бұрын

@ He said correlations, not accuracy.

Bobby Fischer was a beast holy shit. 72 percent pre - engine is NUTTY. I wish we could see a prime Magnus vs prime Fischer

@takeachance5881

Жыл бұрын

I'd say that's why he hated engine so much. It's like you are good by default than others and then technology comes in and ruins his first 20 move advantage completely. No one would be happy in that situation.

@Mortenen

Жыл бұрын

Magnus would destroy Fischer. Not to take anything away from him, but the game now and how it's taught have evolved immensely over the last decades. Especially with the help of computers to formulate theory and tactics. Prime Magnus vs Prime Fischer with the same training as Magnus. Now that would be interesting.

@Jsmith1611

Жыл бұрын

Opponent strength matters. The best moves may be more limited if your opponents are worse.

@Flamingcloud083

Жыл бұрын

Remember when your opponents play bad moves it is easier to find the best move. When your opponents tend to play the same openings all the time it is easier to study lines and memorize the best moves for those lines. There are way more openings /lines being played than ever before because players now have a way of knowing if a line is good without spending dozens or hundreds of hours of prep on that new idea. I would be extremely shocked if those were not extremely important factors for this sort of a statistic.

@TigerTzu

Жыл бұрын

Another thing to consider is that at the highest level, it's often times better to purposefully play a non computer move to pull your opponent out of prep and into a line you know better.

“ Garry Kasparov at 69% very nice “ 😂

@jimraynor3767

Жыл бұрын

69 like the sex position. 🤣High five!

@lrvz7187

Жыл бұрын

Kasparov most like cheated with engines to lower his % to 69% lmao

@dbchesss2850

Жыл бұрын

@@lrvz7187 😂

@JollyRogerTheDodger

Жыл бұрын

Gary Casper*

its great that guy hikaru watches puts so much work into analysing this

when the chess spoke for itself, i was so moved i immediately castled

Now, if you REALLY want to prove that this was cheating, find the person that was betting big on Hans with bookmakers for these 100% games....

@hackeronte7970

Жыл бұрын

Can you bet on chess players?

@alertedcoyote7892

Жыл бұрын

@@hackeronte7970 You can bet on anything

@rahulg5403

Жыл бұрын

What sites to look for though?

@parsonsproject2

Жыл бұрын

That's what I thought. Follow the money. See if any big / regular payments are going out from Hans to somebody else and you will know who's on the other side of that stockfish.

Жыл бұрын

What a stupid comment by a coward who likes to slander people without any proof, like in the worst dictatorships.

Hikaru being 6/10ths the player Hans is at his best speaks for itself

@aaronwarwick9966

Жыл бұрын

6/10ths seems wrong. We should compromise at 3/5ths.

@steeal_wizzard4399

Жыл бұрын

@@aaronwarwick9966 wow.... that is a dark joke

@atilabie

Жыл бұрын

@@aaronwarwick9966 Jesus christ

@xxfazenoscoper360doesnosco7

Жыл бұрын

@@steeal_wizzard4399 what’s the joke

@theguythatplaysbridgeat7119

Жыл бұрын

my 8th grade history lesson has prepared me for this one joke

What really needs to be checked is the moves between 10-20. Once a big enough lead is gained it would be wise to choose the second or third best move to better disguise the cheating. If the game was 100% for the first 20 moves then diminishes then that is extremely sus. This could produce 70% games that fly under the radar.

This could be an amazing movie tbh...how one player manage to trick opponents and organizations sort of like Ocean's 11 or The Prestige

Hans Niemann, the greatest chess players to walk this earth. 45 moves 100% accuracy. Boss level.

@Bobo-Vieri

Жыл бұрын

Stockfish 14 is so good😂😂😂

@Lewd_Fox

Жыл бұрын

He just had a good gut feeling about things.

@davenoscope3836

Жыл бұрын

It is not 100% accuracy, get your fact straight.

@parallaxdoxus9363

Жыл бұрын

@@Lewd_Fox it speaks for itself?

@MMAoracle

Жыл бұрын

@@davenoscope3836 No, it’s better. It’s 100% correlation with the best move of at least one of the main engines. 100% accuracy just means that you pick one of the top moves, not necessarily the best move.

The great running coach Jason Coop was once asked what it took for someone to use PED's in racing and he answered in one word "Ego". You can see from his interviews that Han's has a 5,789 EGO rating.

@lopezmt5

Жыл бұрын

Spot on comment! Also, look at his meltdowns. He is unstable. What do you get when you mix a high ego with unstable, uncontrollable emotion? And an admitted cheat? You get Hans-“Stockfish in the flesh”…

@ShinYamiZakura

Жыл бұрын

@@lopezmt5 Stockflesh is actually such a good name for an edgy cyborg :o

Hikaru: "Ooooh this game is putrid, I played like a 26** player"...all the 26** players out there start re-considering their career's choice 🤣

surprised this is only coming out now

Can't wait for Hans' Dream-style manifesto from an astrophysicist proving he didn't cheat.

@zeusthedrumlord547

Жыл бұрын

I was kinda waiting for someone to bring this up (not sure how much these two communities overlap but honestly it’s probably a fair amount). Both being “caught” with mathematics and probabilities and it makes for such interesting analyses. Dream’s case had pure luck but Hans’ case has pure skill involved and that makes it a lot less simple to analyze and put one simple probability on (like dream’s 1/20 sextillion odds)

@abp1665

Жыл бұрын

then "noooo that wasn't really me who cheated my coach slipped anal beads into my ass while I was sleeping I was completely unaware of it !!!"

@freyamiles3718

Жыл бұрын

@@zeusthedrumlord547 dream was caught by much more solid evidence. There are issues with the maths in this

@-D_A-R_K

Жыл бұрын

@@zeusthedrumlord547 Dream literally admitted to cheating lmfao

@superprofi4307

Жыл бұрын

"Oh, I forgot to remove my anal vibration system that I have installed" same as Dream " accidently" forgetting to remove some folders. I don't know if he actually cheated and this anal bead theory is very wild guess 🗿

The chess is truly starting to speak for itself now, and its telling us something quite clear about Mr Niemann

@ivanalkemist

Жыл бұрын

And what is it??

@blizyon30fps86

Жыл бұрын

@@ivanalkemist that he’s undoubtedly a cheater

@__Jesus_is_God__

Жыл бұрын

@@blizyon30fps86 good play isn’t proof

@EricM93

Жыл бұрын

@@ivanalkemist that with 99.99999% certainty he is cheating

@jdransom5164

Жыл бұрын

@@__Jesus_is_God__ This isn’t good play. It’s otherworldly play

8:50 there is the argument that Magnus in the last 10 years has developed this play style where he plays a slightly less correct move around the late opening to early middle game in order to complicate the game or create inbalances, the evidence for that can be seen everywhere from the last few Tata steels and WCC matches.

I wonder what the biggest accuracy difference is you can find in a game that ended in a draw between 2 GMs

Wow, this is a burn! (29:30) "Congratulations, maybe, to his opponent, I guess, to have resisted for that many moves." Yep, 45 moves is quite a performance.

The best way to present this info is to look at a bar graph (1 graph per GM) showing their distribution of games for each group of accuracy %. I.e. here is 1000 Hans games, the number of 0-5% accuracy games, 5-10%, 10-15% etc. If Hans is cheating you would expect to see 1 Bell curve peak for normal GMs (around 65%), and you'd see 2 for Hans (at around 65%, with a second around 100%).

@Hanensens

Жыл бұрын

This! ⬆️⬆️⬆️

@alexanderschanne3634

Жыл бұрын

You can also just do a histogram for Nieman's data and see if it's normally distributed or not. Edit: I checked. It's not normally distributed.

@aqdjbcr

Жыл бұрын

You could be cheating and have a normal distribution

@idahogunslinger263

Жыл бұрын

@@aqdjbcr you would need a computer to tell you when to make bad moves. Not likely but in theory in 2022 it’s possible.

@Carolus33

Жыл бұрын

@@idahogunslinger263 Super gms can definitely tell on their own when to cheat or not

Great video!

Legend has it Hikaru is still asking about Kb7 to this day.

About Sebastien Feller. It was never discovered directly that he cheated. It was discovered because the "engine" man forgot his phone on a french federation executive's desk and the phone got a sms with "keep giving moves to seb", which started all the investigation in France, and then after the tournament it was made public when they had proofs.

@saptaparnoburmanroy614

Жыл бұрын

Goes to show how difficult it is to prove over the board cheating.

@lolmouf

Жыл бұрын

how was he receiving the intel? How can somebody cheat over the board? Deep ear piece? mouth piece?

@kunalsingh4418

Жыл бұрын

@@lolmouf modern ones use bunch of complicated ways. These guys after all even if cheaters are genuises. Like last time they caught somebody who was receiving moves using aa morse code device in his shoe. Basically all they need is one device anywhere on their body capable of receiving signals and vibrating corresponding to move recieved. Hence the anal beads idea.

@Franchifis

Жыл бұрын

@@lolmouf Morse code and a vibrating butt blug

@Qruel_x

Жыл бұрын

@@Franchifis 😂😂😂

I actually think Niemann's attitude during interviews is disguising the fact that he actually doesn't have an intimate knowledge of his own games. If you just say "your opening was bad," then you're excusing yourself from having to provide analysis. I'm willing to bet if an interviewer pushed Hans, he wouldn't be able to justify his own play with his own reasoning.

@user-iy4yy4be7n

Жыл бұрын

Yep. Interviews are soooo suspicious.

@susbedo9258

Жыл бұрын

The interview after he beat Magnus was even more suspicious and dubious. His explanation consists of miracles and feelings. No actual explanation or intention of his moves. In fact, at one point he "forgot" one of the moves he made.

@mark030531

Жыл бұрын

@@susbedo9258 People like Hikaru are able to recall the exact moves that were played in OTHER people's games as well as their own. Yet Hans can't even recall a recent game in which he managed to win against the World Champion and one of the best-- if not the best -- chess players of all time?

@gruen2006

Жыл бұрын

That does not mean anything (fixed grammar, thank you for pointing out) actually. Several great brains are well known not to be able to speak properly on the problems they have worked with. The mathematician Grigori Perelman who solved the Poincare conjecture is told to going to the whiteboard and rambling incoherently on something tangentially related raising eyebrows with "is this really the guy who did it?". From my behalf I would like to see more conclusive evidence of him cheating in Sinquefield than how he talked in the interview or Magnus' impressions

@Lodzio20

Жыл бұрын

Thats exactly what happened when he said "I dont have to show variations" after sacking a piece xD.

Magnus Carlsen as "minor skeleton" and Hans Niemann as "handsome man" in the captions GOD

So the thing that stands out to me as truly odd is that in a game that goes 45 moves I would expect there to be enough indiscernibly better moves (essentially 2 or 3 moves look equally good) that some of them are not what the engine suggests. If you are playing perfectly, there is even a chance that you pick a move better than what the engine is suggesting, which would also drop your correlation (in the best games ever played by the best players of all time I would expect there to be at least 1 move that was better than the engine). I believe that the way this calculates correlation is by running multiple engines and giving the highest correlation % to a single engine (suggesting that they are using that engine). This seems like crazy good evidence that someone is cheating. It's the chess equivalent of finding the entire essay a student submitted in the course textbook

@ThorbjornMacBain

9 ай бұрын

Exactly, it’s a good example of “overfitting” which happens in stats / ML. You wouldn’t expect such consensus unless it’s “fit” to the engines perspective.

These new figures definitely sway me. I thought Hans was not cheating OTB, but after seeing all the 100% and all the above 90%…we’ll, the dude is a cheater without a doubt. The question is, HOW is he doing it!?

@johnnybambam141

Жыл бұрын

So simple are you joking?

@michaelgmeiner7449

Жыл бұрын

@@johnnybambam141 He's not joking. I also don't know.

@vigilantestylez

Жыл бұрын

Some have speculated he used a device in his sock called "sockfish" which is a cheating device where they get moves from "Stockfish" in their socks via morse code vibrations. And can communicate by tapping a button in Morse code back to the device to tell the device the moves made on the board.

@vigilantestylez

Жыл бұрын

You can see when they were waving the wand on Hans, he got nervous and started fidgeting when they were waving the wand by his feet.

@Glowbox3D

Жыл бұрын

@@johnnybambam141 It's so simple, no one can catch it or prove it. Memes aside.

Beth Harmon: "I will popularize chess more then anyone!" Hans:"Hold my an@l beads!"

@Climbby

Жыл бұрын

good one

@ferguwat24

Жыл бұрын

Hahaha

@thunderbolt6276

Жыл бұрын

😂😂😂

@304Peter

Жыл бұрын

I'd rather not.

@alvadojaime

Жыл бұрын

*plug my an@l beads! Lol

I still think that it could be acceptable that someone comes out of nowhere and plays so perfectly with very high engine accuracy, beats super gms and world champion like it's nothing to him. Maybe he is a genius. However, someone at that level could easily analyze his own games , his own positions on the board after the game. His analysis after the sinquefield cup matches showed that he cannot do a healthy analysis. His analysis were way off compared to his plays. Which means he is cheating.

@reallyknot6148

Жыл бұрын

Oh and don't forget... never cheat... I'm not talking about what Carlsen said, I'm talking about how Hans literally admitted to getting caught cheating online, then banned again from the site for underplaying how many times he actually got caught cheating.

@alienx33

Жыл бұрын

Also, what are the odds of such a genius having been a self confessed two-time cheater who also happens to have a coach with a history of cheating.

great analysis!

Watching this live just hits different, especially since he experiences technical difficulties every 5 minutes 🗿

@yujayden5383

Жыл бұрын

Facts

@forcommentingpurposesonly2918

Жыл бұрын

If you were going to say something this unoriginal you could've just called him a boomer and left it at that.

This is by far the best evidence I've seen that something isn't right, numbers don't lie

@hurricaneheidi2879

Жыл бұрын

It’s still not all that incriminating. Yosha definitely was not doing a fair analysis by comparing only a handful of Hans’ games to the general average of other GMs. Its easy to exaggerate with statistics.

@AcidicDelusion

Жыл бұрын

@@hurricaneheidi2879 He had multiple games at 100%. Dude definitely has those beads up his bum.

@Kayrim_Borlan

Жыл бұрын

@@hurricaneheidi2879 The problem with your argument is that Yosha didn't cherry pick. The engine correlation of all of Hans's games were shown. Yosha just specifically emphasized how many games Hans had with 100% accuracy. Considering how young he is (therefore how few tournaments he's played relative to players like Hikaru and Magnus), he shouldn't even have 1 game at 100% engine correlation that isn't just theory, or just a few moves out of theory. Even if Hans was truly brilliant and played better than Stockfish or any other engine the engine correlation would be below 100. The only way to get perfect correlation is to play only what an engine suggests. I'm specifically stating engine correlation rather than accuracy because most super gms play at 80-100% accuracy, most 90% in classical. However even with that high of accuracy they'd still probably only have about 70% engine correlation. That's why the fact that Hans has so many 100% engine correlation games is so damning. His true rating would have to be 3500-3800 to achieve that, which is extremely unlikely because he would have won every single game he's played recently

@joes9131

Жыл бұрын

@@hurricaneheidi2879 Wait until you find out how fraud is detected through statistics. Benford's law and Zipf's law have been incriminating enough when looking to see if firms have fudged up their numbers. And he's not just evaluating a "handful", it's literally all games from 2019 until now.

@MC-ep8cu

Жыл бұрын

@@joes9131 yeah man, like you say statistics are not a "vibe" They are math. Math doesn't lie

As a graduate mathematics student and someone whose job is literally sports analytics, it's not really that conclusive. If you really like numbers at the expense of all else and really want Hans to be a cheater, maybe it is, but that's just confirmation bias. The problem with using analytics as a metric for "shoulds" with respect to humans is that people are capable of analytically playing above their level at any given time and analytics are never an all-encompassing metric of someone's play style. It's like taking Patrice Bergeron's Fenwick For % at EV versus Nathan MacKinnon's and saying "well MacKinnon is one of the three or four best players in the past 30 years, yet Bergeron (an aging veteran who is mostly known for defensive play) vastly outperforms him in this popular analytic value, something is fishy" - it's not a 1-to-1 comparison that you can reasonably make, there are tons of intangibles and situations that even very advanced analytics aren't able to account for. Hell, Bergeron's FF%@EV outranks MacKinnon, McDavid, Ovechkin, and Crosby's by an order of magnitude, and those are the best players in the league by a long shot: is that grounds for saying "either Patrice Bergeron is the best player of the 21st century or he's cheating"? Of course not, and Fenwick% is a far more advanced depth analytic than "X player makes Y% of moves same as engine". It's why analytics darlings aren't by default all-star selections, it's only a tool in how play is analyzed, not judge, jury, and executioner. Maybe an even more relevant correlation would be the Shooting Talent Adjusted Expected Goals metric: where you're answering "what is the probability that a player is actually a certain shooting talent level given their performance in the NHL so far", then taking someone like Ilya Mikheyev who scored 21 goals last season but whose Bayesian probability with respect to the previous question is only 11.7%. Is Ilya using some illegal curve or something to score more goals? Is he paying off goaltenders to let his shots in? No, he just had a good season versus what his career statistics would have predicted. And again, that's a phenomenal metric that uses tens of millions of simulations on massive datasets (literally thousands of shots, each with tons of precise variables, not just a couple dozen tournaments) using conditional probability (Bayes theorem) to map those probabilities, and it's still not something you can use to call someone a cheater. The metric used here is just one-dimensional and awful, at best it says "this data set we chose shows that Hans plays very well theoretically according to this engine", but the result of using the metric on Arjun shows that engine line correlation has very little to do with human success in the first place. Their own metric contradicts their original statement.

@subjekt5577

Жыл бұрын

To be fair 11% is a huge probability. I agree that you can play way above your level, but it's a matter of how exceptional your play is. Your first paragraph is far more convincing than your second, but I'm still convinced hans is cheating, since we're not just basing it off a single metric.

If anyone would know Hans used certain toys to cheat, this would be the expert.

28:48 Hikaru starts freaking out about Hans' superhuman accuracy on a long game

@tommystizzle6560

Жыл бұрын

45 moves 100% accurate is the nail in the coffin on this discussion. Don't know if he cheated vs Magnus, but Hans has lost all credibility.

@deez5396

Жыл бұрын

29:19 Hikaru after he finds me over a body in amongus

@lokeshkumar-ff8kx

Жыл бұрын

@@deez5396 if this was not a reply comment I guess it would've got like 1k+ likes😂

@deez5396

Жыл бұрын

@@lokeshkumar-ff8kx lol even 5 is generous imo

@lokeshkumar-ff8kx

Жыл бұрын

@@deez5396 and for me the 1 like that you gave is enough

looking at Hans playing, I agree with Magnus, Hans was moving very fast in most of his games and did not seem to be concentrating.

@Fred-tz7hs

Жыл бұрын

every good poker player is cheating by this logic

@olivermeltveit865

Жыл бұрын

@@Fred-tz7hs Not comparable at all.

@OompaL0ompa

Жыл бұрын

Maybe he is just better and Magnus can't accept that. And maybe he didn't had to concentrate because Magnus played one of his worst games ever on that day? I doubt all of this but who knows. Some people are not ready to loose versus certain people. They will not accept it and they will try to convince everyone that they are right. Like Donald Trump as an example

@autosemimatic6071

Жыл бұрын

The idea that he didnt seem to be concentrating is dumb as fuck and is only barely half possible to kinda tell if ur playing him. Stfu

@Stephen246666

Жыл бұрын

@@Fred-tz7hs This is basically the opposite of true. The problem with poker at the highest level is the excessive tanking and spending a ton of time on trivial decisions.

Hans watching this video. Hikaru "ok 80%. I did play well." Hans "Those are rookie numbers"

I wonder if the length of the post match interview correlates with engine correlation

I once got a 100% game - a six-move blunder on a Petrov defence.🤣

@newt2120

Жыл бұрын

how tf did you lose in 6 moves? were you not watching the board?

@JMUDoc

Жыл бұрын

@@newt2120 I didn't; the opponent did!

@lrvz7187

Жыл бұрын

yeah I'm like 1450 in lichess(blitz) and i have quite a lot of 90% and even some 100% games, but thats because I get paired vs someone low that blunders mate on less than 10 moves and stuff like that, and also on the lichess % its counting opening moves, wich in this video they are not counted, so its not really "100%" games if youre just playing opening moves

@basilenordmann7356

Жыл бұрын

only 39 more moves of perfection to be as good as hans!

@_Nomen_Nescio_

Жыл бұрын

chessbase engine correlation accuracy is calculated completely differently than online websites obviously.

You could do 100% for your prep. But once you are beyond prep, it just isn't going to happen. I would love to see the correlation tracked by move number, or by early, mid, end game.

@ModernEphemera

Жыл бұрын

He had 100% on a 45 move game

@hatakenewt348

Жыл бұрын

This engine excludes theory from the analysis

@vincentjiang6358

Жыл бұрын

Hans played better than freaking Bobby fisher on his streak

@zHqqrdz

Жыл бұрын

@@vincentjiang6358 Not only this, but he also played better in a much more competitive era. It's easy to have 100% accuracy against total monkeys like me, it's insanely hard against those GM monsters.

@us-Bahn

Жыл бұрын

Yes, I was thinking along the same lines. It would be interesting to analyse the top 100 chess players’ games and determine how many moves into the game they sustained their 100% accuracy. The ones who went deepest probably have the highest ELO ratings, thus proving Fischer’s premise that success is book-memory dependent.

One thing that regularly stands out in chess videos is that non-human type optimal moves stick out like a sore thumb. It might go something like “the computer is saying move xyz, but that feels like a very non-human move”. It’d be interesting if it’s possible to train an ai to identify non-human moves. Should be possible.. the engine/ai itself can obviously identify optimal moves (a subset of which would be considered non-human). They should be able to data mine common human reactions in those positions/similar positions to determine the likelihood of a human making that move. You could even literally survey a large sample of GMs to analyse ai/engine games and get them to identify non-human moves. Or ask them to give their variations and compare them to the actual sequence for each move in the game

@inthefade

Жыл бұрын

The problem is that GMs are studying engine play and learning the ideas behind a lot of those previously non-human seeming moves. It is especially the case with super-GMs.

@7embersVeryOwn

5 ай бұрын

This is such a great idea! Much better than the z-score commonly used

@7embersVeryOwn

5 ай бұрын

@@inthefadeI disagree. The comment was not about excellent moves suggested by computers, but “non-human” moves. A chess game can really be seen as a dialogue, you can read the intent behind moves, you can tell the personality of the player through them. A non-human move is purely based on deep calculation and ignore this organic aspect of a game. All GM can tell a weird move when it doesn’t reflect this, so an anomaly detection algorithm trained on human games vs computer games could identify such moves.

Guys chill, he probably hasn't mastered ultra instinct yet

Magnus found the beads

This video and the one you showed in the stream were the two most valuable videos I’ve watched in this saga. Thanks for the content and discussing all of it.

@ImTheRonzy

Жыл бұрын

now we have to wait szn 3

@nolikeygsomnipresence270

Жыл бұрын

+1. Hikaru's initial explanation of the situation and this video have been key.

@Japhu

Жыл бұрын

Maybe you should not base your opinion on a video which is being destroyed by various commentators on how bad the statistics are

The problem with statistics as proof is that I'm too stupid to understand it.

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably a duck

The question isn’t anymore if Hans is a cheater but how he pulls it off.

@jackengels5077

Жыл бұрын

Yeah how does he pull off those beads is a mystery

@aniketprasad3128

Жыл бұрын

Bcz if you cannot prove that then he ain't a cheater

@FoieGras

Жыл бұрын

​@@aniketprasad3128 No. Proof beyond a reasonable doubt. This is already BEYOND a reasonable doubt. The "HOW" isn't needed to establish that ..

@aniketprasad3128

Жыл бұрын

@@FoieGras it's all circumstantial right now that to statistical. Statistical analysis can support or reject a hypothesis at best. Cannot establish shit. But yeah good for validation.

@danielnery4054

Жыл бұрын

@@aniketprasad3128 "if you cannot prove that then he ain't a cheater" is one of the dumbest takes I have seen.

If hanz continues to defend himself against acusations of cheating, then he will either have to stop playing or continue cheating because the chess speaks for itself. He cant hide the statistics

@ellasofiejohansen7051

Жыл бұрын

Stockfish iş ,Haced, ,

He defintely should have run some of Hans' games on his own just to confirm that he's comparing apples to apples.

The distribution is slightly trimodal. Mode 1 : 14 games at 54% engine correlation. This is lower than the typical "normal" GM. This _could_ be his typical score without cheating. Mode 2 (main) : 19 games at 69% engine correlation. This like Garry Kasparov at his best or just above the typical "super" GM. This _could_ be typical of the games where he is cheating strategically to not be detected (i.e. only cheat 1/3 moves). Mode 3 : 10 games at 100% engine correlation (statistically impossible to have that many in a dataset of 402 games). This is way higher than any other player! This _could_ be his score when he needs a win, so he just plays every moves the computer suggests. Even if you treat it as a monomodal distribution, a mode of 69% is very high! (P.S. I used "could" because this is not a definitive proof that he cheated, but it's pretty damn close to it...)

@danifurrer4195

Жыл бұрын

very nice theorie! xD ... stochastics dont lie.. i would bet my life he is cheating to a probality of 99,99999%(oh that was 8 months ago x)

@nic12344

Жыл бұрын

@@danifurrer4195 Well, the modes are not very distinct, but there's still something weird. I have done the same analysis on other GMs and didn't find a similar pattern. Of course, I would have to analyze hundreds of GMs to see if this pattern is truly unique, but I don't have time for that! I did look at some GMs and IMs that were banned from FIDE for cheating and most of them have bimodal distributions (to varying degrees), not trimodal. I've done video game cheating analysis in the past. A strong bimodal distribution indicates a clear basic cheating scheme. A strong trimodal distribution, however, indicates a more elaborate "toggling" cheating scheme, where the cheater toggles his unfair advantage on and off to avoid detection. The hope is that they will blend in as a normal strong player. However, they often follow patterns of toggling (consciously or not) so they create a third mode in the distribution. The problem with chess, especially over the board chess, compared to video games, is that we have much less data to work with, sot it's way harder to use it as a definite proof, unless it's very obvious (like a player with an average computer evaluation of 99% over thousands of games). Also, there could be some explanations for this, like errors in the database, that when combined with simple luck creates a pattern. Also, correlation isn't causation, so there could be other factors other than cheating that could influence this pattern in the data (for example, he could be bipolar and play differently whether if he's in a manic or depressive mood. That could maybe also explain his weird behavior).

@danifurrer4195

11 ай бұрын

thats so interesting, as a Mathematician your Job Possibilites are endless right? I just know it a little from poker games analizing with sample sizes and variances.. One could write a code to simplify those problems.. a little c++ and stochastics combined . Et voila -(i go look for someone ;)