Is Brexit Destroying Rishi Sunak?
In this new Federal Trust video, John Stevens and Brendan Donnelly discuss the current state of the Conservative Party in the light of Brexit’s failure.
They predict that after losing the next election the Conservatives will veer dramatically to the right, particularly on European policy linked to Brexit. This will create opportunities but also challenges for the Labour government. It is certainly not a foregone conclusion that the Labour Party will be reelected after its likely success in 2024.
SPEAKERS
John Stevens is the Chairman of the Federal Trust and a former Conservative MEP.
Brendan Donnelly is the Director of the Federal Trust and a former Conservative MEP.
ABOUT THE FEDERAL TRUST
The Federal Trust is a research institute studying regional, national, European and global levels of government. It has always had a particular interest in the European Union and Britain’s place in it. The Federal Trust has no allegiance to any political party. It is registered as a charity for the purposes of education and research.
Website: fedtrust.co.uk/
Twitter: / fedtrust
Donate: www.paypal.com/donate/?busine...
Support our work:
/ federaltrust
#brexit #conservatives #sunak
Пікірлер: 202
This rings true more now than ever: Lock the Tories in a room and come Monday morning, they'll be naked; fighting each other with sticks and arguing about how much they would sell their own grannies for.
You guys re rockstars. Please keep these videos coming. Hopefully is will help combat the political inertia preventing a grown-up debate about reversing some of the brexit damage.
Brexit is a solution to a problem that never existed and a classic example of self harm. In regards to future strength, opportunity and prospects, The Bounty mutineers had better foresight & understanding of the implications of their actions.
The rats are turning on each other. It's so good to see.
If anyone wants to know what the European Union does, they they can do no better than study Ireland and its economics since we joined the European Union in 1973. Then Ireland was emerging from being a poor inward insular uneducated Agranian Catholic theocracy. Today, Ireland is a confident educated multi cultural outward confident successful country that punches way above its weight on the global stage. The European Union has done more for Ireland in less than 50 years than the British have done in more than 500 years of occupation murder rape pillage and genocide.
@pauls9189
11 ай бұрын
100% true. God bless Ireland, they suffered so much imposed poverty, hunger and cruelty from the English but thanks to the EU now have a place in the sun. Meanwhile the rest of us in the UK have to live in self-imposed darkness losing all our hard-fought rights with no good days ahead that I, or anyone else, can see. Tragic but the English are still miles away from realising that through cooperation and sharing we all win.
@tamhunter5025
11 ай бұрын
Correct
@joezanella8949
11 ай бұрын
And number three on the list of safe countries.
@charlesbruggmann7909
11 ай бұрын
You might also mention Eastern Europe. Poland’s per capita GDP will overtake the UK’s before the end of the decade. Truly remarkable!
@Purple_flower09
11 ай бұрын
William what's your feeling about an independent Scotland applying to join the EU? Yes that's a thousand miles away. But just suppose?
Don't see any reason why the UK should retain its permanent U.N seat anymore when it has lost so much influence.
@ascgazz7347
11 ай бұрын
At what level of “influence” should countries drop out, according to you? Surely being a “nation” and wanting to “unite” are fairly obvious reasons to be part of it. You’re saying, “ok all the weak ones out now, let the superpowers control the world”. Do you see no problem with that approach? Not a fan of “democracy”?
@samhartford8677
11 ай бұрын
@@ascgazz7347 I am afraid you have completely misunderstood the point of the question and do not understand what the UN Security Council is. It has only five permanent members: The US, China, Russia, the UK and France (all early nuclear powers). Today the international situation has changed: as in there is India with nuclear weapons and with an economy the size of the UK and therefore has more geopolitical importance than the UK. France is now the sole representative of the EU in the Security Council. That is, basically, the UK should give its seat on the Security Council to India for the system to function fairly globally.
@ascgazz7347
11 ай бұрын
@@samhartford8677 they can’t make another seat as the world develops? You’re not the boss mate. 👍🏻 calm down.
@samhartford8677
11 ай бұрын
@@ascgazz7347 They can make any reform that states will agree to. If the UK stays, should other nuclear states then be included also? What about Germany and Japan? And were did I say I was the boss? I just explained the relative power logic.
@ascgazz7347
11 ай бұрын
@@samhartford8677 people wanting the UK OUT of the UN are a bigger concern to our safety, no? What do YOU want, Samha?
Th Conservative Party has been pulled apart for many years. But more recently it's pulled the country apart.
Cameron had the referendum to unify the party over the EU. That worked well !
i hope so, if the Tories are gone, the UK is much better of....
A very interesting thought provoking talk. Thank you.
@federaltrust
11 ай бұрын
Glad you enjoyed it!
@matpk
11 ай бұрын
@@federaltrustWhen will UK join Nafta? And why not?
Very informative. Thank you 🍀🍀🍀
@user-jh7pw6qx2h
11 ай бұрын
I agree
not a conserative party..more a canablistic party
@michaelmouse4024
11 ай бұрын
A 2022 FT article described the Torys under Johnson & re brexit as a 'fiscal death cult'. An hilarious & striking image that almost locates the Jonestown massacre in Eastbourne...
Is Brexit pulling the bloody tories apart? I certainly hope so! 😊😊😊😊😊😊
@williampatrickfagan7590
11 ай бұрын
Well I do know Brexshit is not keeping them together.
Britain leaving the EU in the manner in which they did was akin to kicking a wasp hive, and see what happens.
@federaltrust
11 ай бұрын
What’s happened is that the EU has become more united and the UK has become more disunited.
@windowman929
11 ай бұрын
A terrible sence of sadness and real uncertainty, let's hope the cure is shorter & sweeter, than my gut feeling is telling me. Really appreciate the effort and content that ye put out.
@JelMain
11 ай бұрын
@@federaltrust Thanks to our own homegrown Spy-Master, KGB Boris.
Obviously, Starmer's hesitent and mild position towards the EU shows that the key for him is not his own ideas but how he can maximize the votes for Labour. This is a mercantile approach and it will cost Labour and the UK, dearly. Clearly, the UK lacks courageous politicians capable to LEAD the country instead of following the voters. Clearly the UK voter needs a minimal form of political and economical education to avoid repeating the disastrous Brexit vote. Brexit will take at least a decade to be solved so it is urgent to start NOW and be HONEST with the voters. From Europe's view point, the more time the UK takes to correct Brexit, the more long-lasting negative effects it will have on the UK's external relations and EU's appetite to trade with the UK. Never forget, the EU DOES NOT NEED the UK but considers it as a somewhat disappointing former friend
@charlesbruggmann7909
11 ай бұрын
Let us put it otherwise: of the three ex-empires on Europe’s border, the UK is the least “problematic” (Russia is obviously the worst and most urgent) but problematic it remains. And just like the other two, it cannot be trusted.
@Purple_flower09
11 ай бұрын
At the moment it's political suicide for Starmer to say the UK must join the EU. I suspect he knows we must, but also that the public just can't bear any more brexit talk at this point. Most of them have switched off.
let's hope so, if the Tory party ceases to exist Britain's chances of regaining prominence increases exponentially.
@Arltratlo
11 ай бұрын
why, Tory votes will vote for reform UK...just to make sure the shit show keeps running smoothly!
@rjy8960
11 ай бұрын
@@Arltratlo What are your views of the ramblings of Rees Mogg?
Can only hope so! Singularly the worst government and the sly snide individuals within in it we’ve ever had.
I love deeply how the UK, and even Britain + its colonies are breaking apart ❤ Britain and even the UK as a whole is disunited politically, socially, culturally and linguistically. The poor political choices and decisions of Brexit have made the lack of unity ever clearer for the entire world to see. It's not just disunited, it's also completely imbalanced. Politically, it has devolved governments, but most of the power lies in Tory Westminster which has the UK at political loggerheads. These devolved governments squabble and fight amongst each other which details the disunity. Brexit was divisive and it shows how disunited the UK is with the occupied region called "Northern Ireland" and the country of Scotland voting No to Brexit. The UK is literally split down the middle in the Brexit debacle which makes it politically disunited. Furthermore, the UK isn't a voluntary union because Scotland is actively being denied another independence referendum post Brexit - this, again, makes it a disunited partnership + an imbalanced and undemocratic one. Welsh and Scottish independence is growing while talks of Irish reunification are on everyone's lips - this, again, demonstrates a disunited and imbalanced union. Socially, culturally and linguistically it is also divided and disunited as the different parts have their own culture and language. Brexit itself limits multiculturalism and encourages exclusive nationalism and nativism which in effect breeds racism and xenophobia (the very core of Brexit and Brexiteers). Great Britain was never united, but instead it's DISUNITED and IMBALANCED as well as UNDEMOCRATIC and UNJUST. And it's actively breaking up which is the ultimate win 😅
@amcc5887
11 ай бұрын
Well said 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
It is certainly pulling the economy apart.
@ascgazz7347
11 ай бұрын
@@Buckets1000 you’re *busy* hating your own life today aren’t you. 🤣 I *almost* feel guilty for enjoying it, but you earned the ridicule well. Why are you taking it out on strangers that never invited you though? Nothing better to do than disseminate hate on a Saturday? Did mommy not buy you a new toy this week? What’s your beef? A bot maybe? Dull definitely. Entertaining: briefly.
Tory MPs aren't the only ones who don't want to lose their seats: if Labour win many, 400, say, in the coming GE, they will hope to win as many again in the GE after it, but that's not how things usually turn out, and they could be facing the choice of defeat to a newly extremist-purged, conservative Conservative Party, or enacting PR, which its members and unions overwhelmingly want, but both options imply far fewer than 400 MPs. Personal ambition is trumping the good of the country; how can we prevent this?
Many Thanks…..
@federaltrust
11 ай бұрын
Thank you too!
Tobias Ellwood is being an awfully bad sport, isn't he, firing shrapnel at his English chums' right to be delusionally exceptionalist?
Great analysis. Thank you
@federaltrust
11 ай бұрын
Glad you liked it!
I hope so along with the whole Tory party. However you then come to the problem of who/what do you replace them with.? surely not Labour because as it is under Starmer Labour is only Light Blue Tory.
Ridiculous to compare Major with the utterly corrupt & sadistc Rishi Sunak even in a throwaway remark.
@federaltrust
11 ай бұрын
The comparison is between two Conservative Prime Ministers reduced to impotence by the squabbles within their Party. The modern Conservative Party seems to have an appetite for civil war, of which the country is a collateral victim.
@EllieD.Violet
11 ай бұрын
@@federaltrust'rejoin' 'rejoin' 'rejoin' ..... I have news for you: it doesn't matter what YOU lot want. *WE* 🇪🇺 EU27 decide, should you ever manage to meet the accession criteria. As of 2023 - you fail to meet 50% of those Greetings from Bavaria (southern Germany)
Thanks!
Tories have assimilated too many mutually exclusive factions to maintain cohesion for much longer, they will splinter. Brexit isn't the cause for that but it did help move things along by providing a steady stream of crises for those factions to disagree over.
@JohnStevens-gp7ge
11 ай бұрын
Correct.
Not just Brexit
@Purple_flower09
11 ай бұрын
@@Buckets1000how is it stinky when it made ROI the richest country on the planet and the horrible British are no longer messing up the EU? I'm confused. You got what you wanted and still complain?
Good well balanced debate once again.
Europe has been pulling the Tories apart since before the UK joined the Common Market/EEC/EC/EU (have I missed any out?). Few of the current crop of Tory MPs bear any resemblance at all to you guys. I'm a 'natural conservative', and yet I couldn't vote Conservative without another Tamworth Manifesto and a complete change of direction (and personnel...and that doesn't mean just the MPs).
With PR the UK could have within a short time 3 parties on the right side of the parliament. A Farage/Johnson half fascist group with lots of support from the street (a Weimar style right wing party), a nationalist traditional conservative group similar to a Macron party and a social-conservative group with tight relations to conservatives in Scandinavia and Germany. May you live in interesting times 😉🤣
@federaltrust
11 ай бұрын
The Farage/Johnson group could never win a parliamentary majority under PR. Under FPTP it might.
@uweinhamburg
11 ай бұрын
@@federaltrust Well, Johnson certainly wants to be the boss, Farage, i'm not so sure. I guess he is more interested in a regular good income and regular invitations to talkshows 🤣😉. He is clever enough to understand that someone who governs has to deliver something, and that the resources of the UK to deliver are close to zero!
I agree entirely with your thoughts on the disposition of the Labour Party. Thank you for another good realistic talk.
@federaltrust
11 ай бұрын
My pleasure!
I always enjoy your videos, thank you so much for your work! I would love to hear you discuss the post-Brexit state of British foreign policy. How are the various relationships doing today and where is UK going on the world stage?
@federaltrust
11 ай бұрын
Certainly, perhaps in the autumn. Brexit makes it very difficult for the UK have a coherent foreign policy.There is much suspicion of Biden among Brexiters, but a new Trump Presidency would create a new set of intractable problems for any British government.
@jamessgarside1259
11 ай бұрын
M
Good conversation, guys. Some important points were raised. Firstly, Starmer is dreaming if he thinks he can improve upon the withdrawal agreement in any meaningful way. Secondly, I am convinced that the UK will eventually apply to re-join the EU, but only after it has been shown that Labour's philosophy of a high skilled, well-paid workforce without immigration is shown to be a fallacy. The free movement of people in large trading blocks is what leads to a dynamic economy, not labor protectionist ideals. Labour are still following outdated economic principles that maybe the US with its vast economy and scale can accomplish but not a small island like the UK.
@user-jh7pw6qx2h
11 ай бұрын
Lieb dich
@Purple_flower09
11 ай бұрын
It's too soon for Starmer to talk about joining the EU. It will take a very long time to join and the public is not up for dealing with the elephant in the room right now.
Hope so.
Yes it is. But surely, that's got to be a good thing!
Gentlemen, one aspect I would like to have your opinion on is the demographics. Brexit is (apparently increasingly) the project of the old. The young are pro-Europe and anti-Tory. Won’t that give Starmer quite a cushion before he has to seek re-election (2028/29?)
@federaltrust
11 ай бұрын
Demographic change will certainly help Starmer in 2028-2029. There will however be pressing economic and social problems he will need to face between 2024 and 2028. These intractable problems may undo his re-election prospects in 2029.
@uweinhamburg
11 ай бұрын
Such polls aren't static, and nobody can predict what happens if the pro-EU people in the UK understand more and more that the chances of joining EUrope again are close to zero for some decades. In general, i do share your view. We will see a longer time of a more pro-EU sentiment in the UK, but with the serious risk that this sentiment does not meet anything similar from EUrope. Out means out!
@nickdoughty518
11 ай бұрын
Hopefully, we will see a corresponding dwindling of the influence of the 'client media' as those rags are mainly bought by the old.
@JohnStevens-gp7ge
11 ай бұрын
Brexit is indeed increasingly the project of the old. However the underlying problems facing the UK, which Brexit has revealed, emphasised and exacerbated; the gross and growing inequalities of wealth and opportunity between generations, certainly, but also between regions and between ethnic and cultural groups and communities, are not such as to easily lead to re-joining the EU being recognised as an essential part of the solution (which it surely is), without a far more vigorous political effort by pro-Europeans. I am thinking, in this context, particularly of the predicament of poor, white, northern English younger men and, by extension, younger families. Addressing their present deprivation and sense of despair is going to require very significant resources being re-directed towards them, for which the Labour Party's present plans, and the overall economic conditions across the country, afford little space. And this constituency is also likely to be the most vulnerable to being seduced by a much harder line nativist nationalist agenda such as seems likely to be adopted by the Conservative Party after the next general election. The task facing Labour, and pro-Europeans more widely, is I fear much harder than presently appreciated.
@nickdoughty518
11 ай бұрын
@JohnStevens-gp7ge well that goes back to our main failure in the Remain camp, which was to understand sufficiently, in the lead up to the Referendum, why people wanted Brexit.
I am not worried about Tories; they will probably lose but even if they won't, the difference would be minimal. But with Starmer's Labor winning and the same policies going on and on and on ...
Brexit means: The Confederation of Europe. (Ask the man who invented the phrase).
Starmer is going to have to communicate with the business industry clearly. How he will modify the Visa process to make it not so onerous. Because when you stop and think about it sponsoring locks in a particular worker that might not be a good fit. (Not to mention cost) A migrant worker may feel turned off as being owned for a year by an employer that may be a particularly nasty person.
@JohnStevens-gp7ge
11 ай бұрын
Very true. And flexibility of the kind you indicate was a key (largely unrecognised) advantage of Freedom of Movement. But Starmer will need to be cautious on his approach to immigration, for one thing that has been revealed by Brexit is that it has undoubtedly had a suppressive effect on wages and has been part of the shift of rewards from labour to capital of the last c 30 years. It is re-balancing that development which must lie at the heart of any new economic policy capable of boosting productivity and growth imv. FOM in the EU is not, of course an immigration policy (since mobile workers overwhelmingly go home after a period rather than seek permanent settlement and everyone enjoys reciprocal rights) and can be readily combined with such an approach. Our post-Brexit immigration policy much less so (even were the income threshold to be substantially raised which would cause other problems)..
@Darren-fm3pe
11 ай бұрын
All back to the national sector would certainly cut out The Middleman (charging God knows what for a stage performance). Huge cuts in subsidies to unpatriotic businesses wouldn't go a miss either! I think the extravaganza you've all been having over the years ought to come to an end. Germany's flag is a rainbow.
@justsayen2024
11 ай бұрын
@@JohnStevens-gp7ge That last bit is the conundrum, according to Bailey at the bank of England if people are getting a pay rise it somehow will exacerbate the Banks attempt to reducing spending. Raising interest rates was the old timey way of getting people to stop spending, it absolutely will not work in a cost-of-living crisis that part of Economics needs a rethink. ( I feel it's a kin to the snake eating its tail
@JohnStevens-gp7ge
11 ай бұрын
@@justsayen2024 The key is to divert resources from consumption to investment and then ensure that investment drives productivity. To increase rewards to labour by building up pension pots rather than current income might be a way forward. I agree the current classic monetary restraint through higher interest rates is a very blunt instrument. It falls only on those with mortgages and credit card debt and increases the burden of government debt service when inflation has hitherto been driven so significantly by import costs, food, energy etc (the former made worse by Brexit). Higher rates should encourage saving however (and there is some evidence this is happening).
No.
@PhillipHilton
11 ай бұрын
Use your words Gumbo. Maybe you can even form 'whole sentences' if you try. Won't someone be proud if you can manage that?
Yes They need to take back control 😂
@ascgazz7347
11 ай бұрын
@@Buckets1000 ..and your point? If you have one..?
Proportional representation is a must. However it comes in many forms, some of which are no good at all such as party lists which give party establishments far too much power over who gets elected. At the other end of the scale is the Single Transferable Vote which gives at least some power of selection to the voters. Can this be promoted rather than the board brush of proportional representation?
@federaltrust
11 ай бұрын
Are we not more likely to be able to conduct a rational discussion about the best sort of PR once the principle of PR has been accepted?
@jounik
11 ай бұрын
@@federaltrustSomehow the concept of rational discussion on the comparative merits of various approaches to implementing a nationwide reform doesn't exactly match the image I have of the English voter.
@simonsweeney6728
11 ай бұрын
It's astonishing that Labour do not accept the imperative of PR. The danger of a weak one-term Starmer government being followed by a nativist extreme right Tory administration is obvious. Indeed, Labour's historic commitment to FPTP is one explanation for Brexit having happened.
@simonjohn9525
11 ай бұрын
@@federaltrust Absolutely! There's far more to discuss than the type of PR tho'. The political parties view it as a way to get more of their own candidates elected (which isn't going to happen) rather than allowing the voters to chose who they elect. E.g. on James O'Brien the other day Angela Rayner told us that Nick Griffin was elected as 'her representative' in the European Parliament.This was disingenuous. Firstly she had more than a single MEP representing her in the European Parliament, secondly sufficient people within her EU constituency did want Griffin representing them and thirdly it doesn't matter how much we disagree with someone else's politics, or even find them disgusting, if the voters vote them in we have to accept that there is a point of view held by a sufficient number of the public which we either have to put up with, persuade the public of an alternative point of view or take account of that view and adapt towards that viewpoint so as to attract some of the not so extreme back to your view. In the end none of the current main political parties will have as many MP's under a PR system than they have now so all are disinclined to adopt almost any form of PR. They are happy to have all of the power for some of the time but don't want some of the power all of the time.
@markwelch3564
11 ай бұрын
I argue that Party executives already have a lot of control over what policies individual politicians can endorse, party list systems just make this current truth open and transparent Under PR, if you don't like the direction of the party, vote for a different party! The need for factions within giant parties is removed by letting those factions be parties in their own right
Greetings to Great Britian
@ascgazz7347
11 ай бұрын
@@Buckets1000 unlike the *’WASTELAND’* of your tiny little polarised mind, eh.
No you wont be rejoining. The UK meets almost no member requirements, the largest of which is national debt balanced against GDP. You've got no chance.
@NonFlyiingDutchman
10 ай бұрын
Croatia joined when it didn't meet the debt to GDP requirement.
@alexpervanoglu7420
10 ай бұрын
@@NonFlyiingDutchman that's interesting, what was their percentage ?
@elmercy4968
7 ай бұрын
@@NonFlyiingDutchman Greek also joined without meeting the national debt balanced against GPD.
Is this a couple of old tories talking here sounds like they are part of the blighty brigade
"promo sm"
*"No if's or but's the UK has no chance of rejoining the EU for 50 years"* -there, easily fixed the title thumbnail..😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
I can't believe Mr Donnelly is talking about Daily Express opinion polls. Does he not realise that there is a small but hard core of remainer commenters on the DE that always vote multiple times?
If Johnson was involved then yes.
EU is a dissaster, but be out the EU is also a dissaster. USA for example, is treated UK as the nothing itself. The trade deal Trump offered to the UK, was a real humillation
@charlesbruggmann7909
11 ай бұрын
Why is the EU a disaster? For most Europeans, it has shown how indispensable it has become, first with Covid, then with Ukraine. Brexit, on the other hand, has shown everyone what not to do.
@jounik
11 ай бұрын
Thatcher made sure that the UK would be seen as the gateway to the European markets even when there was no actual reason to prefer it over other locations. Pretty soon it was the default point of entry for new business simply because it already was that for old business. Brexit brought an end to all that. Trade with the UK no longer grants access to the greater EU market, so USA like others see little reason in giving the UK favorable terms. Why would they? The UK is now a trade area the size of Great Britain, no more.
@marvinbrando722
11 ай бұрын
@@charlesbruggmann7909 . In the push for the multiculturalism, it has been. France is an example of it. Just for that. The rest is good. But that part, is and has been a dissaster. One thing is European cultures. They can integrate each other in no time. But when you bring millions of muslams, thats not possible in my opinion
@jontalbot1
11 ай бұрын
Why is the EU a ‘disaster’? I am interested less in your views on the EU than what you consider a disaster
@uweinhamburg
11 ай бұрын
Right for the Trump offer of an FTA - i have read it, and it is clearly an insult. Only an idiot would sign it, but then - when you look at some other contracts, the UK has signed latey 🤣😉 BTW - the Trump offer is still official US politics and can be seen on their government pages!
Stop ranting about Brexit & look at the chaos the EU is in, collapsing economically. People of the EU against forced immigration, but EU leaders still trying to force this through.
@gorgu08
11 ай бұрын
Utter lies
@raaf4678
11 ай бұрын
The EU is not economically collapsing, that's a story that's been going around ever since it's existence. In the meantime the EU is one of the 3 major economic blocks in the world with the biggest internal market. Furthermore, there is migration in the EU which is problematic, how to deal with people who are not allowed to stay, but can not go back. But the UK has the very same problem. More migration even, so I don't get how you think you're better off somehow.
@matchbox555
11 ай бұрын
How has leaving the EU stopped immigration?
@ulfosterberg9116
11 ай бұрын
You need to read media that is not making up their news.
@alea_iacta_est.rubicon
11 ай бұрын
A total brexiteers lie like all the rest. Do you believe the Earth is flat too? 😂 There is no other European country stupid enough to cut itself off from the worlds biggest market. Only the poorer, sad futureless UK.
Well it would be fair after they've pulled the entire country apart.