Great content! And what a sequence of moves!

Insane precision, indeed! Amazing content!

Dear Alexey! could you explain, why the probability is less than 50% if where is one tile it is 50/50. why not?

@AlexeysCarcassonneChannel

Жыл бұрын

Great question! This is because Yellow is the second player. So, after his move there will be an odd number of tiles remaining. At 6:39, for example, there are 9 tiles remaining (BGA is saying 8, but we also need to factor in the tile that Red has in hand, so it's 9 unknown tiles in total). Out of these 9 tiles, Yellow will draw 4, so the chance of the desired tile being amongst these 4 is 4/9 or ~44%. The approximation of 50/50 works with many tiles remaining, because the difference in probability is negligible for decision making. For example, with 31 tiles remaining, the chance of winning the coinflip would be 15/31 or ~48%. But as we get closer to the end of the game, the difference starts being more noticeable. With 5 tiles remaining it's 2/5=40% and with 3 tiles remaining it's 1/3=33%. Interestingly, for the starting player it's always 50/50, because there's always an even number of tiles remaining after their move. And that's a big part of the starting player advantage.

That was not my title advice Alexey! 😉

@AlexeysCarcassonneChannel

Жыл бұрын

I'll save yours for the next one xD

@Bekse

Жыл бұрын

@@AlexeysCarcassonneChannel haha agreed!