I chat about a vital, must read peer-reviewed scientific paper linked here: The Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Diminishes Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105929#:~:text=To%20summarize%2C%20our%20results%20suggest,during%20the%20past%20four%20decades. I mentioned this paper near the end of my last video; but this paper importance clearly merits a full video and discussion. “Abstract The Arctic sea ice has been rapidly dwindling over the past four decades, significantly impacting the Arctic region and beyond. During the same period, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) was also found in a declining trend. Here we investigate the role of the AMOC in the recent Arctic sea ice changes by comparing simulations from the Community Climate System Model version 4 with decelerated and stationary AMOCs under anthropogenic climate change. We find that the weakened AMOC can slow down the decline rates of Arctic sea ice area and volume by 36% and 22% between 1980 and 2020, respectively. The decelerated ocean circulation causes a reduction of northward Atlantic heat transport and hence a general interior ocean cooling in the Arctic Mediterranean, which helps alleviate the Arctic sea ice loss primarily through thermodynamic processes occurring at the base of the sea ice. Key Points This study clarifies the AMOC's impact on Arctic sea ice by using the CCSM4 climate model simulations with weakened and stationary AMOCs The weakened AMOC could decelerate the Arctic sea ice area and volume loss by 36% and 22% during 1980 and 2020, respectively Detailed sea ice volume budgets shows weakened AMOC promotes ice growth at base, aided by thermodynamic process” Bottom line: “We find that the weakened AMOC can slow down the decline rates of Arctic sea ice area and volume by 36% and 22% between 1980 and 2020, respectively.” I think that AMOC slowing over recent decades has prevented us from having the first Blue Ocean Event (BOE). If the AMOC strength had stayed constant, I think that we would live in a world with many BOE’s occurring on a regular, maybe yearly basis. Moving forward, we may see a BOE followed by AMOC spin-down and a deep freeze Arctic with strengthened zonal jet streams with less waviness. Or if the AMOC slowdown passes a threshold in its spin-down decline first, the Arctic would chill and a BOE would be indefinitely postponed. Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

@lancechapman3070

Ай бұрын

:0

This may be why Guy McPherson's predictions of a blue ocean event, and following total demise of civilization, haven't happened. It's complicated and we are still learning. Thanks Paul, excellent update.

@lancechapman3070

Ай бұрын

Paul had a pretty big bet on the Blue Ocean Event himself

@christinearmington

Ай бұрын

Had? I thought it was for this year or next.

@ziggyfrnds

Ай бұрын

No it's mainly because McPherson is a fraud

@klondike444

Ай бұрын

@@lancechapman3070 Paul learned his lesson on prediction in 2013.

@reuireuiop0

Ай бұрын

Blue Ocean will be totally overcast, as clouds immediately form in the chilly humid air over the open ocean. That cloud cover however, will retain far more heat than the blue Ocean would absorb.

you've been killing it with the recent uploads uncle Paul! keep up the great work and thank you for linking the paper!

@rdallas81

Ай бұрын

He's not killing anything! Although he looks like he could in some shots, 😂😅😊

Thanks!!!!!! They are saying what I thought that we in Sweden and Norway might not be affected as hard by the AMOC as some other other studies say. It will still be cool water at the bottom of Barents sea and the heat will find it's way up to Scandinavia and Barents sea as long as I'm alive, so there will be some kind of circulation. This is good news for the small part of the world where I live.

@cliffs.mayhew1345

Ай бұрын

The assertions that Northern Europe would see a drastic cooling trend in response to a slower or collapsed AMOC tend to be fatally overzealous in my experience, but it wouldn't be out of place to assume that a localised cooling trend could be observed in Iceland and Greenland. The cooling trend theory relies on proxy data representative of the Younger Dryas, when Scandinavia was dominated by the Fennoscandinavian ice shelf, and that continental mechanism for observable land surface cooling doesn't exist in the Holocene. But we should also consider the latest study published by the EGU/Copernicus, that demonstrates how a weaker AMOC and freshwater/cold SST anomaly in the North Atlantic due to ice melt actually promotes hotter and drier summers in Northern Europe due to how atmospheric systems such as the jet stream react to the anomaly.

@tomaseriksson4533

Ай бұрын

@@cliffs.mayhew1345 I also had the same thoughts when (Peter Ditlevsen?) report came out. I have not read it but have followed some of the speaks on youtube). My main thought against -20 degrees was that Greenland is very far from Norway and it is very dark and cold winter time at the Barents sea at the same time as there will be a lot of hot salty surface water that want to find a way up to the north. For me it sounds logic that the AMOC will slow down at the same time as it is created a new smaller "AMOC" running along the west coast of Europe from Spain up to Barents sea.

@cliffs.mayhew1345

Ай бұрын

It would make more sense for any cooling to be entirely restricted to Greenland, and this would theoretically make Europe much warmer and drier too. Oltmanns et al. demonstrate how atmospheric systems react to a colder North Atlantic SST anomaly and show how it results in prolonged heat and drought across Europe and Northern Europe specifically. I believe it was Ditlevsen's publication that was widely criticised for its conclusions based on unrealistic forcing (ie. assuming a freshwater hosing volume that isn't physically possible). The problem is that we assume that the AMOC is the sole source of heat for western and northern Europe, and assume that a decline and/or collapse is a guarantee of regional cooling. It's a linear way of thinking about a system that isn't linear, and we've seen multiple demonstrations of how atmospheric flow responds to negative SST anomalies in the North Atlantic.

@tomaseriksson4533

Ай бұрын

@@cliffs.mayhew1345 I don't know and I think nobody know but at this moment I think it is good that we try to understand different sub-processes. In the end it will be a fight between many sub-processes that means that climate might swing like a pendulum between different scenarios over the time. I think that it will not be that linear process that most people think. It will be much more volatility in the system and we will during the next 50 years see the climate for most places flip from one climate to another climate every decade. Ten years with arctic winter and then ten years of Sahara heat......or..... One day of -10 degree and the next day +10 degree. Not a good scenario for grow food.

Wow. Fascinating Paul, thank you for the breaking news, coming shortly after the confirmation of the aerosol masking effect due to lowering of sulphurs, a surprising factor in sea ice formation shows how much there is still to learn. I'm a long time fan finally heading over to PayPal!

@rdallas81

Ай бұрын

Youre a fan? I'm a air conditioner.

@davidrowewtl6811

Ай бұрын

No, no , nooooo! The poor dog and cat don't want to appear, that is clear as day.

You could say the AMOC is acting as a kind of thermostat / regulator to control the polar ice perhaps. But we are still in trouble as the oceans warm and gather heat energy. Gaz UK

@taurusgal75

Ай бұрын

I was listening to LBC and heard about the 3.6 million hours of companies pumping raw sewage into the UK rivers and seas in 2023. Between the AMOC shutting down and corporations polluting the water...we are screwed.

@cliffs.mayhew1345

Ай бұрын

A decrease or general absense of ocean circulation would be a classic symptom of a reduced temperature gradient between the equator and the poles. Hypothetically this would be the early stages of entering a hothouse as the stagnant oceans begin to behave as a radiative source of heat due to a lack of oceanic circulation. We've seen this demonstrated on a smaller scale with the recent SST heatwaves. It's also theorised that a weaker or absent AMOC results in considerable northern hemisphere warming due to excess atmospheric heat no longer being absorbed and circulated into the deep ocean, and instead stagnates in the atmosphere and further exasperates atmospheric warming. Previous hothouse events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum are thought to have been triggered by ocean circulation collapse and stagnant oceans acting to absorb and radiate more surface heat.

Because the whole system is connected!

@rdallas81

Ай бұрын

Writing on the wall. If you're not inspected Stumble you may fall. Eye. Eye, eye!

What that means is more heat in the mid-latitudes, which is what we're seeing with record setting high Atlantic ocean temperatures. Added greenhouse heat had to go somewhere & will continue to do so.

@cliffs.mayhew1345

Ай бұрын

This indeed would be a more viable response to a decline and hypothetical collapse, and arguably one we're seeing demonstrated on a smaller scale. Considering the distinct absence of climatic equilibrium and sheer level of excess heat, it seems somewhat naive to assume that the climate will react within paleoclimate parameters. Under Holocene conditions, the AMOC arguably functions to circulate heat out of the midlatitudes as well as the tropics.

Actually this paper is the shocker. Must-reaD, YES. PARADIGM shifting for laypeople such as myself. I had no idea Earth could do these things. Many questions, please follow-up.

Critical information!

@rdallas81

Ай бұрын

Classic!

To be corrected if I say mistakes. I have noticed an increase in storms in France in recent years, compared to the 80s-90s. I think the jet stream has something to do with it. This current is increasingly winding, due to the fact that the poles heat up faster than the equator. The poles are warming faster than the rest because of global warming, which is causing them to lose snow and ice, which are white in color and reflect the sun. Instead, there is the ocean for example (the north pole heats up faster than the south pole, unless I'm wrong), precisely because of its ocean (Arctic Ocean), which is much darker without ice, and therefore absorbs heat, instead of reflecting it, warms up and warms this particular pole. This is the principle of albedo. As there is less and less temperature difference between the poles (especially in the North) and the equator, the jet currents slow down and can take turns. Like cars that go slower and can turn more easily.

@Overt_Erre

Ай бұрын

you have "noticed"? I assume you're talking of your comprehensive analysis of data from all the regions of France and compared to historical average, accounting for all the instrument qualities in time? I'd love to see the study

@magnetique12

Ай бұрын

@@Overt_Erre I live in France.

Nice to see that, it looks like, you cleaned and organized your sun-room studio

Gaia is working overtime to keep systems in balance.

@Knifymoloko

Ай бұрын

Hopefully Gaia is making double time for the OT 😉

@user-oh3xt9bm2c

Ай бұрын

I'm sorry, but you're NOT seeing the forest for the trees. I don't think those living in the southern hemisphere would agree with you. However, if McPherson was correct and we'd be extinct by 2026 from the BOE there'd be no one left to agree or disagree.

@kti5682

29 күн бұрын

Sounds like a nice dream.

Glad you're reinforcing your last lecture as a UK resident who just planted a small, accessible permaculture orchard. We've had more extreme wet than hot here over the past year, but it seems extreme cold is on the way at some point over the next decade or so.

@stupidscruff5794

Ай бұрын

There were some scientists over a decade ago shouting about a "geologists dream" lake discovered in Ireland that revealed an ice age could go into full swing within the time span of a matter of months. Not sure where in the UK you are but if not the very south, your crops would be buried under ice.

Thank you Paul.

Finally, a negative feedback loop! ✅

@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885

Ай бұрын

time to kick out the hoola hoop!

@mathematiknet

27 күн бұрын

There never was any problem with sea ice. It changes periodically: upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg

I think we’re going to see runaway heating now. Hope I’m wrong.

@rdallas81

Ай бұрын

Not wrong, nor long.

@antonyjh1234

Ай бұрын

Going? If the heat isn't controlled now when does it become uncontrollable or runaway?

@Deep.Development

Ай бұрын

@@antonyjh1234 true. It is here. I just want to hedge with a smidge of delusion. :)

@antonyjh1234

Ай бұрын

@@Deep.Development To think 200 years ago there were one billion people and then coal changed everything, then oil and we may be at the pointy end but still, at 5c it will take 330 years for 10% of the ice to melt, oil will run out way before this, getting around this while the earth accelerates in heat, I suppose is better than going the other way, the AMOC slowing down could be what pushes the earth into ice ages in the northern hemisphere.

@cliffs.mayhew1345

Ай бұрын

Theoretically an AMOC collapse results in a drastic decline of atmospheric heat being absorbed and circulated into the deep ocean. This would translate to more latent surface heat trapped in the atmosphere in the NH midlatitudes. In plain English yes, a potential for runaway warming rather than cooling.

Thanks for all you do Paul🫂

This is awesome information, thank you! Definitely reading this paper!

Excellent content Paul

So...Ice is increasing in the arctic but degreasing in the Antarctic? What does this mean for sea level rise? And if the AMOC shuts down in the North, it must also shut down globally since it is contiguous? You are right about one thing, now I am completely confused.

@michaeloreilly657

Ай бұрын

Greenland and Antarctic melting not affected, for the moment. He's only talking about Arctic sea ice.

This is fascinating. At least a relief for the immediate future. Could the predicted La Nina be a result of this cooling, with its feedback adding too? Of course, good to heavy Monsoons on a parched and dry earth will likely lead to runoffs and flooded rivers.

Cool stuff. You are excited for good reason (and I had to slow down to 1.25x)! This speaks directly to the reason why your predicted blue ocean event is a tad tardy. Thumbs up.

Interesting. Intuitively it makes sense. We'd been expecting a less "energetic" climate as the Arctic/Antarctic ice melts and warms, reducing the temperature differential relative to the tropics. So it looks like that might not be happening soon. If AMOC slows down the mid-tropics and Carribean OHT will rise, leading to that energy travelling by a (less effficient) atmospheric route via hurricanes and post-tropical storms. This is likely to deliver a lot of heat as rain to the Greenland ice sheets, with a feedback that will slow the AMOC further. The rainfall and storm patterns in the North Atlantic in a slow - AMOC scenario become critical.

@reuireuiop0

Ай бұрын

Heat building up in tropical seas, while a diminishing AMOC is transporting less energy away to the Arctic, might lead to slow rising sea level along the Atlantic sea board, while the warmer oceans will deliver heavier storms & hurricane further up north. Damage to Atlantic ports could already start to happen, with economic impact that will dwarf the damages caused by breaking the Baltimore bridge

Thank you.

This makes complete sense. Very interesting. Thanks!

Have to say its hard to believe it'll get that cold. There's already so much heat in the system. Plus there would be a lot less industrial activity in the northern hemisphere so we'll lose a heck of a lot of aerosol cooling.

@volkerengels5298

Ай бұрын

The Caribbean would become correspondingly hotter. I think this is conceivable as an extreme rash on the way to a new equilibrium.

@FrankWhite437

Ай бұрын

McPhearson was probably right all the time

@christinearmington

Ай бұрын

Guy was relying on Arctic submarine sea ice experts and one early outlier for heat, 2012.

@cliffs.mayhew1345

Ай бұрын

Unless we see a rapid reformation of the Laurentide and Fennoscandinavian ice shelves, it's exceedingly unlikely that we'll see any cooling anomaly as suggested by previous CMIP outputs. At worst, we revert back to the preindustrial, before warming resumes after about 15 years at a faster pace (as Drijfhout demonstrated)

We live in the same climate as it was 5 million years ago.

So - now we can bet on AMOC /vs/ BOE ...? Is this like we don't know how tipping points really behave when they are heavily connected like AMOC and the positive feedback loop BOE? Until now the slowdown of AMOC hasn't *stopped the loss* of sea ice.... Do we know how the 15% slowdown has developed over time? Do we have an idea at which point AMOC stops? (It's not at 15% slowdown... as we know :)) Is it at 20% or 40%? I don't understand, why after AMOC collapse 'it takes a 100 years until the effects came up' ...? Shouldn't that be almost instantly? I mean - 'AMOC collapse' means -> the heat transport stops. ........many questions.... :)) So -> to pay my bill: In media we can hear an interesting opinion whispered now and then: "We should avoid helplessness, hopelessness and fear at all cost." For obvious reasons: *Mad man can't control nothing* If one avoid negative emotions - you need to have an eye on those. You must looking permanently straight to the Negative. *_What tf do we think is the effect of watching the Negative permanently ...?_* Anyway - it's fear, self-doubt what you get.

@cliffs.mayhew1345

Ай бұрын

We wouldn't see an immediate response to a collapse event as it would take decades for glacial encroachment to occur. And at that, it's debatable whether or not we'd see any pronounced cooling in response to a collapse. It's generally assumed that the atmospheric warming effects of anthropogenic activity are potent enough to more than supplement the loss of naturally circulated warmer high salinity currents.

We are no longer in the Holocene.

@michaeloreilly657

Ай бұрын

Fasten your seatbelts!

@reuireuiop0

Ай бұрын

Geological science does not agree on that ;)

So, how can we understand how the balance of effects between the ever increasing pollution-driven planet heating and the role of the changes in the Amoc?

So what all about this fuzz on to much co 2 in the ocean, The ocean has so much co 2 (94%) so even if AMOC stopped we always will have a smaller flow up to Arctic and ice will melt but in a longer run? My new page should be ?lol! Thanks Paul!. Interesting times.....

I think with the AMOC heat transport weakening we may be heading towards an equable climate, otherwise known as the Greenhouse/Hothouse Earth. Instead of the ocean, the heat transport from the equator towards the (North) pole happens via the more fluid and non-restricted atmosphere. So, the Hadley cell would expand and pust the Ferrel and the Polar cells out of the way and maybe even to non-existence. This would be a major mass extinction event and the probability of the apex predator H. sapiens going extinct as well would be quite high.

Its gonna be huge Tampa!

Amazon will tip.

Dont amok around!

@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885

Ай бұрын

Ewok amok amoc.

Interesting 👍

So warm water is not getting to the arctic as fast because of a slowing AMOC, is it land temperature making the Greenland ice tongues melt then --top down?

@cliffs.mayhew1345

Ай бұрын

You could argue that it's a demonstration that the AMOC isn't the sole contributor to milder anomalies in the polar Atlantic region if we can still observe localised melt water trends and muted glacial growth.

@cliffs.mayhew1345

Ай бұрын

* should say that the AMOC may not be the sole contributor to high latitude warm anomalies under current conditions. It would be disingenuous to assume that anthropogenic warmth wouldn't continue to affect the climates in the northern hemisphere.

I feel the phrase "sea ice extent" better captures the human imagination than does the phrase "sea ice area".

Paul, you did a much better job on the latest Dr. Hanson paper than Dan Miller! 👍

We're saved!!! This system is way to complex for our tiny little brains. One thing for sure: the scientific community will continue to be surprised, over and over again. So far, the surprises have been on the negative side, but who knows?

@reuireuiop0

Ай бұрын

... And at what time, the community _outside_ climate science will be in for a surprise, of the nasty kind, so that folks and leaders alike finally get to face the ugly truth ?

Woh damn this is a hot one. Very very very intriguing. The complexities and overlaps of these systems is seemingly endless with our investigation! Fuck around and find out. There are centuries to fuck around and years to find out I see.

@DirkVanPelt-zq3fl

Ай бұрын

Termination Event Rapid Phase

It's amazing that earth/ nature will always try to find a way to have some sort of equilibrium if indeed a slowing AMOC is reducing the rate of sea ice loss in the Arctic. Even over many millions of yrs a brightening sun and a trend of less co2 to keep the balance. Of course we are now messing with that balance but hopefully earth/ nature can find a way to help ( though we need to do our bit aswell).

Amoc is running amuck.

@reuireuiop0

Ай бұрын

Guys that gave it that name, must've had some kind of foresight

This if happens will cool the seafloor reducing methane release, reestablish a balanced jet stream as well as cool the entire north, plant is rebounding

I am no longer going to upvote your videos unless Newton makes an appearance to balance off all the horror.

@robcraigmyle3892

Ай бұрын

This should be his 4th Law.

@Corrie-fd9ww

Ай бұрын

Is Shackleton still around? Any other kitties too?

@rdallas81

Ай бұрын

😊😅😅😅😅😊😊😂🎉🎉🎉❤❤❤❤❤❤😢

@rdallas81

Ай бұрын

​@@Corrie-fd9wwhe's on the mend

@volkerengels5298

Ай бұрын

The least would be the *electric hamster mouse* But I think blackmail is actually no way to have a good lifelong relationship...... :)

Volume is off

@PaulHBeckwith

Ай бұрын

It’s on

@TennesseeJed

Ай бұрын

If you get to a video just after release the sound hasn't caught up yet.

@rdallas81

Ай бұрын

​@@TennesseeJedthanks Obama

@TennesseeJed

Ай бұрын

@@rdallas81 I know, right‽ Gah!

@rdallas81

Ай бұрын

Lol​@@TennesseeJed

I for one was hoping for a BOE, hopefully it can still happen.

@rdallas81

Ай бұрын

More like a DIE

@reuireuiop0

Ай бұрын

I'm not impressed by BOE. Because of heightened humidity over open sea in chilly air, mist and clouds will form quickly, and prevent the sun reaching the ice less seas. Instead, the cloud cover will retain more heat, as they prevent the open sea from radiating out. Nights are always much warmer under clouds for exactly that reason. It will not be BOE but OVCOE, overcast ocean event

Welcome to the Climate Casino 😢

I guess you were not considering this when you called the Blue Ocean event to occur much earlier, eh?

@robcraigmyle3892

Ай бұрын

It's a hallmark of high objectivity when Earth scientists can avoid personal attachment to their forecasting theories and models.

Scientists should not be picking n choosing themes they like n not choosing to speak about those they don't like n people celebrating on side themes is also like a frog in the frying pan thinking it's taking a hot steam n not being cooked...while we should not take any one side in climate change considering both would do good to assess the real impact but however it's very clear from satelite data we have for over the years that globe is warming on average n it will get hotter ,but it would be good to understand this research as well

- We live in the same climate as it was 5 million years ago - I have an explanation regarding the cause of the climate change and global warming, it is the travel of the universe to the deep past since May 10, 2010. Each day starting May 10, 2010 takes us one thousand years to the past of the universe. Today, April 08, 2024, the state of our universe is the same as it was 5 million and 82 thousand years ago. On october 13, 2026 the state of our universe will be at the point 6 million years in the past. On june 04, 2051 the state of our universe will be at the point 15 million in the past. On june 28, 2092 the state of our universe will be at the point 30 million years in the past. On april 02, 2147 the state of our universe will be at the point 50 million years in the past. Mohamed BOUHAMIDA.

Thank you.