I JUST finished watching your video on how the Oscars work! I’ve got Oscars fever, and the only prescription is more Dan videos. Thanks again for the ranked choice voting explanation: excellent, dare I say, award worthy, work.

I wish Banshees would win Best Original Screenplay at the very least

I'm predicting that the "They've Gotta Give Something to Banshees of Inisherin, Right?" award goes to Kerry Condon for Supporting Actress.

@heatheraggus7501

Жыл бұрын

I'd be happy with that

Being Portuguese and extremely proud that for the first time "we" are nominated for an Oscar, I'm happy you would pick Ice Merchants for the win 😊 A wonderful movie that can really move you. Thank you for the great video, as always 😁💪

@notchuckproductions5029

Жыл бұрын

It's Easily the best animated short the bunch (hell might even the best of all the shorts nomnited this year) if , both use the medium perfectly all while pushing it at the same time. Loved the Richard Williams esque use of playing with camera in a 2d space

Am I the only one who thinks Angela Basset’s performance was very run of the mill? Seriously don’t remember a single scene that displayed acting prowess. Hong’s performance in The Whale was such a great surprise.

@megastarwarsrocks99

Жыл бұрын

Bruh

The thing about The Fabelmanns is that it is a movie about making movies and the Academy loves those movie. Never under estatimate that. It is what made The Artist and Argo best picture winners

@heatheraggus7501

Жыл бұрын

I remember really loving The Artist when I first saw it, but it certainly hasn't stood the test of time!

@Kasino80

Жыл бұрын

​@@heatheraggus7501 I hear you. It's a bit of a gimmick film.

@heatheraggus7501

Жыл бұрын

@@Kasino80 agreed

Rightfully proud of the Oscar procedures video. Very informative and weirdly fun watch for me as a fellow movie and Oscars nerd

No matter how it will turn out: I know there's a universe in which Everything Everywhere All At Once wins every one of its nominations. The only one I really WANT to win is Ke Huy Quan, because that man deserves everything (ha!) after what he went through and we will see him again in dozens of other projects afterwards.

@dougfarrell7355

Жыл бұрын

I don't know his story. What did he go through? Was he typecast, or was it the trappings of being a young kid cast in a Spielberg film?

@Ductos

Жыл бұрын

@@dougfarrell7355 Basically he kept going, only playing a handful roles while failing lots of auditions, because they wouldn't cast Asian actors and few projects even called for Asian actors. He quit acting after his last role in 2002. Instead, he became a fight choreographer and worked behind the scenes. EEAO was his first major role since then and boy, did we miss out.

I don't understand why Jamie Lee Curtis is getting more love than Stephanie Hsu. I thought Hsu had a tougher role with more variance in emotion. Some of the most impactful scenes involved her I can't say much for the overall list as I have not seen any other performance besides Kerry Condon (who was also really good). Hsu, Condon, Curtis is my list

@brandondavis3431

Жыл бұрын

It’s races like this that make you understand it’s a popularity thing. There’s no way Jamie Lee Curtis deserves to win over Stephanie Hsu. One of them played a central role in the core emotional crux of the film the other is a supporting character in that narrative. It’s the opinion that Jamie probably should have won one already and is established and people like her. Stephanie Hsu was flat out the surprise and she was phenomenal.

@curtisbme

Жыл бұрын

100%. JLC was absolutely great and stood out for playing against type and, like the rest, playing multiple versions of the character. But she was not better than Stephanie who was really closer to a co-lead and yes, carried a good portion of the emotional weight. I'm glad she was recognized by Independent Sprit Award for break out performance. Of course I'm happy if either one of them wins but that is more my rooting for the movie to win everything everywhere than any specific comparative performance.

@QueenJneeuQ

Жыл бұрын

Career narrative, thats the only reason Angela Basset was nominated as well.

@rifkadm

Жыл бұрын

I agree - Stephanie Hsu deserves that award.

@littlebigbunnyrabbit9520

Жыл бұрын

Yeah I'm hoping for a surprise win. If not her, then Condon.

Love love love you these kinds of prognostication videos!! I really enjoy them, thanks! Happy Oscar weekend

Dan, I love your channel dude. You're killing it! I appreciate all of your movie and TV knowledge.

There is a stigma against action movies in general. Avatar won oscar in 2010 for cinematography and now The Way of water receiving a middle finger, just like Top Gun Maverick. Yes, some action movies were nominated in that category, but they rarely win.

@teamrainbow7674

Жыл бұрын

Honestly The Way of Water, The Batman and Top Gun were all kinda snubbed in that category, not all getting in would’ve been understandable but all of them being snubbed…

@Intranetusa

Жыл бұрын

Directors could copy EEAAO and have a crazy blend of genes that combines an action film with a drama, romance, scifi, comedy, etc type film. Game the system by going around the bias against action films. Lol

@lorenzo_smit

Жыл бұрын

Same with horror movies

19:10 I was definitely expecting Dan to say, "it's about a girl... Who is quiet" 🤣

I already completed my Oscar Ballot Guesses, however each year I look forward to your thoughts. Thank so much for your coverage.

Just to mention, I was proud of you and your work on that previous video. Very informative and interesting. Keep it up

I’m so excited to see Naatu Naatu performed live.

You’re my current favourite channel on KZread! Love what you’re doing and how passionate you are about movies and shows.

Thank you, Dan, for enlightening people on the pronunciation of Brendan's name. I remember reading an interview in the 90's where he said "I'm not Kelsey Grammer; it's not 'Frasier'," and all these years later I still wince when I hear it mispronounced. I also hope he wins the Oscar, if just for people to finally get his name right.

@tennisCharlzz

Жыл бұрын

There have been a bunch of names people have had problems with, but Dan has gotten them mostly right. The one that is off is Paul Mescal because there's an alcoholic spirit called mescal and it emphasizes the "cal" (as in pal). But it's more like the second syllable of buckle, like Mess-kle or Mess-cull. Also Paul Dano is not pronounced Dan-o, but Day-no. Even Spielberg would pronounce it Dan-o, but he has mostly corrected in interviews recently (with Stephen Colbert). Most people have been getting Stephanie Hsu correct (as shoe, rather than sue). The hardest one is Charlize Theron. Her last name is supposed to be pronounced Thrawn, but even she says it as Theron, just as Timothee Chalamet doesn't always pronounce his first name the French way because it sounds pretentious.

@heatheraggus7501

Жыл бұрын

​@@tennisCharlzz also Gerard Butler..Dan makes a point of saying Jair-errd.

I love that you would personally pick hong chau. She had the most heartbreaking performance and it’s completely overlooked. It’s too bad really

So exciting!! Can't wait to tuck in! Have joined the Patreon for Sunday. Loved the explanation about voting!

8:06 literal goosebumps hearing that Batmobile start up

Really liked this format of what should, what will win and would could surprise.

Why do we have a „Costume“ and „Make-up“ Oscar but no „Best-Stund performance“ ? Oscar

I wish that we could stream it. I cut cable years ago and I haven’t been able to watch the Oscars since. I just update my phone throughout the night and watch the highlights on KZread.

Awesome and thoughtful as always 👍🏻

I love your level-headed analysis and appreciate your videos so much!

Thank you for your work! So exited for Oscars! And this video looks great. Good year for movies, I saw (and like) many of the nominated ones

Deciscion to Leave should not only have been nominated for best foreign language film but also best cinematography and best director. It had shots and edits so breathtaking, it literally gave me goosebumps

@w.ahhhhhh1138

Жыл бұрын

Dtl was great to watch in cinema.

great analysis Dan.

I watched Haulout based on your recommendation. The moment when you first see the walruses is one of my favorite moments from a documentary in recent memory.

It really is a shame that TBOI might walk away with 0 Oscars. In any other year this movie would have 2 awards minimum, but we had a lot of movies last year that were very specifically great in 1 or 2 categories. I still think The Banshees is the most well rounded and my personal favourite movie of the season, I just hope they manage to walk away with an award.

@Windupchronic

Жыл бұрын

I still think it has an outside shot at Best Actor. It wouldn't shock me if this was an Adrian Brody type year, where he won out of nowhere.

@mellow3995

Жыл бұрын

@@summertyme5748 I don't agree with your comment but I respect the nice pun 👍

@Sergesauce

Жыл бұрын

My money is on that it’ll win best original screenplay.

@kingkiller5325

Жыл бұрын

I think it has a great chance of winning Best Original Screenplay.

@Sharpe1502

Жыл бұрын

I’d keep an eye out for supporting actor. BAFTA’s and Oscar’s tend to align on the supporting actor categories and there’s been a couple years (Boseman and Hopkins) where the one actor was sweeping the categories except for BAFTA and then the BAFTA winner went on to win the Oscar. If there’s gonna be an upset it’s gonna be Keoghan beating Ke Huy Quan.

love that you gave some love to The Batman for Best Sound, I have the exact 3 in that order for that slide

Kind of surprised Armageddon Time didn’t get any traction. It wasn’t perfect by any means but it had great performances that put you in the headspace of a real child in the 80s. Anthony Hopkins was fantastic as the grandfather who had seen what racism did in Europe and what it could lead to here. It also dealt with how race, class and education create systems of poverty and opportunity that effect us over 40 years later.

Pulling for Flying Sailor in Animated shorts. Homer card. Loosely connected to the Halifax Explosion, which leveled the city

@heatheraggus7501

Жыл бұрын

Maritimes represent!

We share very similar Oscar picks. I can't wait to see how it turns out this year.

Great video Dan!

Thank you so much for saying you'd vote for The Quiet Girl, I hope there's a lot of other academy members who like you have got a chance to see it since the nominations and it wins because I will just cry if it does and hear Gaeilge recognized. It's also Seachtain na Gaeilge (Irish week) here in Ireland this week and Patrick's week so the timing couldn't be better

The Red Suitcase and An Irish Goodbye are my favorites of the Live Action Shorts. I hope you get to see them at some point.

An Irish Goodbye was part of one of my programs when I was a programming intern at the Newport Beach Film Festival and was one of my favorite films from the festival, so I was thrilled when it was nominated. I highly recommend you check it out when you can!

I’ve been following Michelle Yeoh since I first saw her alongside Jet Li in Tai gik Cheung Sam Fung (The Tai Chi Master) from 1993 directed by legendary Yuen Woo-Ping. It’s amazing to see her how far she has come.

Any chance of getting a review roundup for the International Film nominees? I'd love to hear more of your thoughts on them.

Great vid, as always 👍🏽

Glad I'm not the only who would vote for Hong Chau, ballot in hand. You played the right clip when discussing best actor. That shot of her tearing up is devastating.

The Red Suitcase might have been a contender if Dan had seen it, it’s amazing!

EAO just won best original screenplay at the Writer's Guild Award. 👏 Closer to the gold.

I thought you were gonna make the Mint Mobile ad “Best Wireless Service” and put it on all three categories

When you showed the clip of the batmobile, it gave me chills just like in the movie

I'm kind of surprised he didn't pick Wakanda Forever for best costumes, but I'll admit that I didn't see some of the other films in this category. I did like Jobu Tupacki's costumes in EEAAO.

Amazing Oscar content last few days, Dan. I dont watch the Oscars or have watched all the movies but your summaries and explanation have made me able to follow up 👌👏👏

That is such a great picture to have for Best Director.

Besides Best Documentary I think your predictions are spot on.

I also saw that Harrison ford is a presenter for one of the awards, it’s gonna be supporting actor I would bet to give Ke his oscar. Love the video dan!!

Great to see your love for The Quiet Girl

Would be interesting if All Quiet on the Western Front won Best Picture because then you'd have two adaptations of the same material having won Best Picture.

@gemelwalters2942

Жыл бұрын

@@summertyme5748 you must have watched a different movie because the relationship between Paul and his comrades was very human.

Wow we have a lot in common!! I would also vote for The Quiet Girl, Fire of Love, and Cate Blanchett!!

I tuned in to your Patreon last year and enjoyed watching with you and Mara! This is the first year I won't be watching as we have been weekly hosting The Last of Us viewing parties with friends. 😭

I wanted to like The Whale more than I did. Fraser’s performance was good for the material, but it definitely felt awards-baity. But it worked when Charlize gained weight and put in fake teeth for “Monster” and when Oldman put on a fat suit to play Churchill. It’s also telling that 3 makeup nominations revolves around putting someone in a fat suit.

Not giving Tar best director or screenplay when it's your favourite film of the year is... something for sure.

@DanMurrellMovies

Жыл бұрын

It’s a really tough year. As I said, EEAAO was a very close second on my list.

@michaelangelo2192

Жыл бұрын

@@DanMurrellMovies Yeah that's fair - I just thought you'd spread the love between the two of them in those categories. I don't know if EEAAO needed both Screenplay and Director... Todd Field recieving practically nothing this awards season for a film many consider the best of the year is kinda sad to see. Wish he at least won somewhere (BAFTA, DGA etc.)

I don’t ever watch the Oscar’s but I enjoy your videos about them way more lol

I’m just weak but whenever I hear anything about Everything Everywhere All At Once, I just tear up. I don’t know what that movie did to me. But just even mentioning it triggers some weird stuff. Dammit 😂

Dan, I was too late to watch the Oscars with you, but if you should elect to offer the same thing next year, I'm 100% on board. I wish Marcel would get some sort of recognition. It was my favorite movie that I saw last year, and it was also the best theatre experience I had.

Good picks!

You were pretty much spot on except for Babylon

Wow, I'm impressed at how well you predicted the winners...

Best supporting actor is such a tough one this year. Imo quan had so much screen time idk how you count him as supporting actor. Imo I think Keoghan deserves that award for adding so much to that movie in such limited screen time.

@heatheraggus7501

Жыл бұрын

I agree!

hey dan, im wondering if you're going to review poker face. excited to hear ur thoughts on it

Extremely well done video. Thanks Dan . My picks for who I think will win - Best Picture - Everything Everywhere All at Once ( I'm fine with this or Banshees winning as long as Banshees gets at least some love): Director - the Daniels (Im thinking Spielberg will win this if the Daniels win screenplay but if they win Director and Banshees wins screenplay then Fabelmans might get shut out Lead Actor - Brendan Fraser (my pick : Colin Ferrill but its very close for me) Lead Actress - Michelle Yeoh (my pick: Andrea Riseborough but its very close for me) Supporting Actor - Ke Huy Quan (my pick: Gleeson) Supporting Actress - Curtis (my pick: Condon) Original Screenplay - The Banshees of Inisherin Adapted Screenplay - All quiet ( my pick : glass onion) Animated Feature - Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio Film Editing - Everything Everywhere All at Once Sound - Top Gun: Maverick ( my pick: Batman ) Cinematography - All Quiet in the Western Front (my pick : anything else) Production Design - Babylon Costume Design - Elvis (my pick EEAAO) Makeup and Hairstyling - Elvis (my pick: Batman) Visual Effects - Avatar: The Way of Water Original Score - Babylon Original Song - RRR(\my pick : the EEAAO song) International Film - All quiet ....(my pick: Argentina, 1985) Documentary- Navalny

The Quiet Girl and Close sound like such sweet movies, where are they streaming?

I turned off the Oscars both right before the slap and the discovery that they'd announced the wrong winner. So if I turn off the Oscars, something weird will happen.

Definitely looking forward to the Oscars this year, but I'm still a little bothered that Top Gun: Maverick wasn't nominated for Best Cinematography🤨. The biggest snub in Oscar history in my opinion. I'm glad it got nominated in other categories though. And even though the chances are slim, I really hope it wins Best Picture.

@DanMurrellMovies

Жыл бұрын

How do you think that spectacular stunt work was caught on film, though? I’ve never seen aerial photography done like it was in that movie.

@sebagonzalezmusic

Жыл бұрын

@@DanMurrellMovies EXACTLY, that’s what I mean. I’ve never seen a movie shot like that. It felt so real and tangible. And the work and effort that went into it was insane too. If I was to join the Air Force and become a pilot and someone asked me why, I’d just say “Top Gun: Maverick.” Like, the movie was so dope it inspired me to actually become a fighter pilot.

@tronam

Жыл бұрын

@@DanMurrellMovies Because a ton of it was CGI and sadly their amazing visual effects team were essentially gagged from promoting their work on it because of the "real and practical" narrative Cruise & Co kept pushing last year. TGM had over 2400 VFX shots, more than any modern Star Wars movie. Rogue One, for example, had 1500 by comparison. It ranged from fully CG planes like the stealth bomber to the F-14s which aren't even in service any longer. Then there were extensive mesh overlays of CG planes on top of real ones, pilots being digitally copy/pasted so that they appear in the right cockpit location, to even fully compositing and re-arranging planes in the air for dramatic effect. Sure, they shot as much real cinematography as they could, but it is as much an artificial creation as most modern blockbusters. They just emphasized realism over fantastical VFX.

I love your picks, Dan. In terms of the acting Oscars, the Leading Actor and Actress categories are neck and neck, and I'd be happy if Michelle Yeoh/Cate Blanchett or Brendan Fraser/Austin Butler won, since they had the strongest performances, in my opinion.

I disagree a bit Dan. I have a hard time chosing Best Supporting Actress when I see Stephanie Hsu on that list. All those women brought such gravity. Angela I believe was the best part of Wakanda Forever, Chau was a major center, Curtis brought depth, and Condon empathy but Hsu I think brought all those and more. I didn't see it on the first watch around as much, but the second watch? Its unbelievable how she obliterates this role. Her performance to me has been overshadowed by Curtis who I don't think brought as much but still notable of course. I dunno man, I root so hard for her.

I hope Andrea riseborough takes home the Oscar for best actress, her performance was so touching.

@heatheraggus7501

Жыл бұрын

Maybe she will split the Blanchett/Yeoh votes!

Dan should make this a drinking game where he has to drink everytime he gets a win right.

I was very moved by Austin Butler's performance as Elvis. I also really love Brendan's story in hollywood and it would be very satisfying in a "hollywood career" kind of way.

@melisagalvalizi6982

Жыл бұрын

another boring biopic performance

@mcovamendez

Жыл бұрын

@@melisagalvalizi6982 what’s your deal with biopics? You are in all the channels saying the same. Don’t watch them. Period. Live and let live. Professional hater

@heatheraggus7501

Жыл бұрын

​@@melisagalvalizi6982 I think he was better than Rami Malek a few years ago. Barf!

I loved both Navalny and Fire of Love, but I’m with you on FoL winning 🤞

I think Oscar is kind of scared another Korean film take the main stage of the ceremony , as Decision To Leave is at far superior than other International Film category nominees and may well be in the Best Film category

We both picked 17 predictions to win.

Elvis and Butler Brandon tie for best actor. Barbara S. Won for Funny Girl and tied with Katherine Hepburn for The Lion In Winter. Tar best actress and Best Director.

I hope this year, a movie that people actually have seen and made an impact at the box-office (ie. Top Gun) , will win.

I'd vote for Hong Chau as well.

Wakanda Forever needed a score nomination. The siren music is chilling, beyond.

Hi Dan if your able to get onto the streaming service BBC Iplayer you'll be able to catch an irish goodbye I have just watched it and loved it

I want Cate and Michelle Y to tie the Oscar. Each of them has earned it on her own merit and each deserves it.

I loved the score of Babylon, even though I don't plan on watching it

I hope Everything Everywhere All At Once wins in every category it’s nominated in

@Intranetusa

Жыл бұрын

EEAAO has two nominations in the supporting actress award that pitts Jamie Lee Curtis vs Stephanie Hsu. Unfortunately there can only be one so it is numerivally impossible for EEAO to win all of its nominations.

Funny how Dan corrected his pronunciation of Fraser but still pronounces Mes-Kale, instead of Mes-Kill

The Andra situation should have been HANDLED because now everyone will be posting stuff and name checking the competition. Ect

Dan you are the best.

Yasss Naatu Naatu for Best Original Song!!! 🔥🔥🔥❤️❤️❤️

I think Fablemans will win Original Score. I don't think it will go away completely empty handed, and I think that's the category it has the best shot at winning.

Never have the Oscars been so ignored, and never have they been so important.

@heatheraggus7501

Жыл бұрын

How so?

This Oscar season is weird for me because I started working at a theater last February which gave me the benefit of catching 7 out of 10 Best Picture nominees which is much more than I usually would. This was a great year for cinema and I don't have that film I'm cheerleading for like I've done in years past. My top 5 for 2022 are 1. Fabelmans 2. Elvis 3. Marcell the Shell with Shoes on 4. Banshees of Inisherin 5. Avatar Way of Water.

I thought All Quiet was too akin to other war movies and didn't feel special to me idk

A tradition for the Dan Man

EEAAO clean sweep … all 10 categories 🫶❤️😃

My current GoldDerby predictions (as of 11.3): Best Picture: 10. Triangle of Sadness 9. Avatar: The Way of Water 8. Women Talking 7. Elvis 6. Tár 5. The Fabelmans 4. Top Gun: Maverick 3. All Quiet on the Western Front 2. The Banshees of Inisherin 1. Everything Everywhere All at Once This race seems locked. Best Direction: 5. Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) 4. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) 3. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) 2. Todd Field (Tár) 1. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) Todd Field could pull an upset, but it seems incredibly unlikely. Best Leading Actress: 5. Ana de Armas (Blonde) 4. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) 3. Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) 2. Cate Blanchett (Tár) 1. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) An incredibly tight race between Yeoh and Blanchett, but I believe the latter's incredible disinterest in winning again will come into effect. Best Leading Actor: 5. Bill Nighy (Living) 4. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) 3. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 2. Austin Butler (Elvis) 1. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) Another incredibly tight race, but I believe the career narrative, frontrunner status, and everyone being sick and tired of Austin Butler's Elvis schtick will end up working in Fraser's favour. Best Supporting Actress: 5. Hong Chao (The Whale) 4. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) 3. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) 2. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) 1. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) A true toss up between the top 3, but Condon seems to me like the solid, stable pick with the one with the least working against her. Best Supporting Actor: 5. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) 4. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) 3. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) 2. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) 1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) #QuanSweep LES GOOOOOOOO Best Original Screenplay: 5. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner (The Fabelmans) 4. Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) 3. Todd Field (Tár) 2. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) 1. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) I'm fully aware that I'm predicting an upset here, but I just can't see the 2nd strongest movie of the season go out with only a Best Supporting awards won in a toss up, and that's assuming that Condon does win. A win for The Daniels wouldn't shock me in the slightest tho. Best Adapted Screenplay: 5. Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) 4. Kazuo Ishiguro (Living) 3. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig and Justin Marks (Top Gun: Maverick) 2. Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stockwell (All Quiet on the Western Front) 1. Sarah Polley (Women Talking) Here's my thinking when it comes to Women Talking vs. All Quiet on the Western Front: if Women Talking only got nominated for Best Picture and Best Screenplay, does that not mean that the Academy thinks the screenplay is so good that its strength is enough to elevate an otherwise unremarkable movie into being 1 of the 10 best movies of the year? And if so, what are the odds that another movie's screenplay can compete with such strength? IDK, that's what makes the most sense to me, but I'm not ruling out All Quiet at all. Best Cinematography: 5. Roger Deakins (Empire of Light) 4. Darius Khondji (Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths) 3. Florian Hoffmeister (Tár) 2. Mandy Walker (Elvis) 1. James Friend (All Quiet on the Western Front) I'm not knowledgable enough to comment on this category so I'll just mention how I'll never stop saying the name of the Bardo cinematographer to the tune of "Chin Cheng Hanji". In all seriousness, I don't see how All Quiet misses this category given its strength in the techs. Best Costume Design: 5. Shirley Kurata (Everything Everywhere All at Once) 4. Mary Zophers (Babylon) 3. Ruth Carter (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) 2. Catherine Martin (Elvis) 1. Jenny Beavan (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris) This category really baffles me, since no contender besides Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris comes all that close to passing the eye test for me, and yet it's considered the least likely. I'm still gonna bet on it, but I'm well aware that I'm probably gonna be wrong. Best Editing: 5. Mikkel E. G. Nielsen (The Banshees of Inisherin) 4. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond (Elvis) 3. Monika Willi (Tár) 2. Eddie Hamilton (Top Gun: Maverick) 1. Paul Rogers (Everything Everywhere All at Once) Betting against the editing/sound stat is ballsy but EEAAO just seems undeniable by this point. Best Makeup and Hairstyling: 5. Camille Friend and Joel Harlow (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) 4. Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová (All Quiet on the Western Front) 3. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine (The Batman) 2. Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti (Elvis) 1. Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley (The Whale) I assume we all predict this category will coincide with Leading Actor this year, and I happen to predict The Whale for both. Best Production Design: 5. Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper (All Quiet on the Western Front) 4. Rick Carter and Karen O'Hara (The Fabelmans) 3. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole (Avatar: The Way of Water) 2. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carolino (Babylon) 1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Bev Dunn (Elvis) Clear toss up between the top 2 here, but the reason I went with Elvis has to do with my pick for the next category. Best Score: 5. Son Lux (Everything Everywhere All at Once) 4. Volker Bertelmann (All Quiet on the Western Front) 3. Carter Burwell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 2. John Williams (The Fablemans) 1. Justin Hurwitz (Babylon) Continuing my previous statement, I just can't see Babylon winning 2 Oscars, and I think this is where they're not gonna miss. As to the other nominees, I actually think each of the nominees has a feasible chance of winning. In particular I believe this is The Fabelmans' best chance of not going home empty-handed, which ultimately I think that movie will. Best Original Song: 5. Tell it Like a Woman (Applause) 4. This is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once) 3. Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick) 2. Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) 1. Naatu Naatu (RRR) This is one where any winner besides Naatu Naatu would shock me. Best Sound: 5. The Batman 4. Avatar: The Way of Water 3. Elvis 2. All Quiet on the Western Front 1. Top Gun: Maverick Vroom vroom. Best Visual Effects (SUPERBET): 5. Top Gun: Maverick 4. All Quiet on the Western Front 3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 2. The Batman 1. Avatar: The Way of Water I still need someone to explain to me how a movie that prides itself on achieving all of its visuals in-camera and not using any vfx ends up nominated for Visual Effects and NOT for Cinematoraphy. Academy brain go brrrrrrrrrr. Best Animated Feature: 5. The Sea Beast 4. Turning Red 3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On 2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish 1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio If I had a 3rd Superbet I'd use it here. Best Documentary Feature: 5. A House Made of Splinters 4. All That Breathes 3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed 2. Fire of Love 1. Navalny If the war in Ukraine could get a worthy song to win the Eurovision for the first time since Heroes, it can and will elevate Navalny to an Oscar win. Best International Feature (SUPERBET): 5. EO (Poland) 4. Close (Belgium) 3. The Quiet Girl (Ireland) 2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) 1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) I don't have a mortgage, but if I did I would bet it on this category. Best Animated Short: 5. The Flying Sailor 4. Ice Merchants 3. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse 2. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe it 1. My Year of Dicks I have them ranked by funniness of the title, and I refuse to change it. Best Documentary Short: 5. How Do You Measure a Year? 4. Haulout 3. The Martha Mitchell Effect 2. The Elephant Whisperers 1. Stranger at the Gate As you've seen in the previous category, I have 0 knowledge on shorts, so I'm not gonna say anything about this category and the next. Best Live-Action Short: 5. Night Ride 4. Ivalu 3. The Red Suitcase 2. An Irish Goodbye 1. Le Pupille

Takes fresh from the oven! Yay!

Hi, Dan. Thanks for the predictions. Let's see how it all pans out later today. I finally watched Tár. [There's only one Best Picture nominee left to go: Im Westen Nichts Neues]. Though classical music has been a huge part of me growing up and some of the jokes and references did not escape me, I thought the story meandered and dragged too much, some things seemed pointless. Kind of dull, not my cup of tea. Cate's perfomanece was great for the most part, but I couldn't disregard some exaggeration on her part, like the way she acted did not reflect accurately what a real person would do in those situations.

"The quiet girl" is a wonderful movie. And way too under the radar. Catch it if you can.