What will happen in the next European Parliament elections in June 2024, and what will be the political and policy consequences of the election outcome?
On Wednesday 14 February 2024, Simon Hix discussed the statistical modelling behind a new 'forecast' of the elections (together with Kevin Cunningham), and compared the model's predictions to other 'nowcasts' based on current opinion poll standings of parties.
The Hix-Cunningham model predicts a major shift to the right in the next EP, with 25% of MEPs on the populist right, the centre right EPP the 'pivotal' party instead of the Liberals, and a 'populist right' coalition with a majority of seats for the first time.
The speaker also discussed the potential political and policy consequences of this shift, such as the appointment of the next Commission and the direction of EU policies, for example on the EU’s climate change actions.
This event was recorded on 14 February 2024.
ℹ️ More information: www.eui.eu/events?id=566676