The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p<0.05, or less than 5%) and no longer explainable by chance. Using National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) information for September minima (million km²): 2007 4.16 2008 4.59 2009 5.12 2010 4.62 2011 4.34 2012 3.39 2013 5.05 2014 5.03 2015 4.43 2016 4.17 2017 4.67 2018 4.66 2019 4.19 2020 3.82 2021 4.77 2022 4.67 2023 4.23 Plot the trend line for this data and it will be flat. ZERO net change in 17 years. The linear trend since 2007 is indistinguishable from zero ( around -0.17% per year ). In the early 1950s the sea ice concentration anomaly was lower than it is at present. The sea ice anomaly then rose during the 50s, 60s and 70s. This was followed by a decline. This is demonstrated in Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) data, which is based on historical sea ice charts from several sources (aircraft, ship, and satellite observations). The AARI data shows the sea ice concentration anomaly was lower in 1952 (-5%) than 2005 (-3%). The anomaly increased in the 50s, 60s and 70s. In the 80s, 90s and early 2000s it decreased. Since 2007 the trend has been flat. JAXA (Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency) satellite data from 2002 to 2024 Arctic Sea Ice Extent (365 day running average) shows no noticeable trend with values close to 10,000,000km² throughout. Their minimum extent for daily values was in 2012. No other year since has come close. MASIE (Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent - Northern Hemisphere) shows something similar to JAXA. From 2005 to 2024 Arctic Sea Ice Extent (365 day running average) shows no noticeable trend with values close to 10,000,000km² throughout. Their minimum extent for daily values was in 2012. Again no other year since has come close. It also shows a marked increase in Ice in the Greenland Sea since 2018. Polyakov et al (2003) show "ice extent (1900-2000) in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas provide evidence that long-term ice thickness and extent trends are small and generally not statistically significant". Trend -0.5% per decade (±0.7%). Vinje (2001) shows a deceleration in the rate of ice loss from 1864 to 2000. Recent sea ice extent is very high when compared to the last 10,000 years. Also changes in sea ice extent and the speed of those changes were greater in the past (Stein et al, 2017). NOAA's Global Time Series Average Temperature Anomaly monthly data (1995-2004) for the Arctic region shows the peak anomaly occurred in January 2016 (+5°C), another El Niño year, and the trend is now downwards (-0.33°C per decade). HadCRUT4 Arctic (70N - 90N) monthly surface air temperature anomalies record (1920-2021) shows the greatest number and magnitude of positive temperature anomalies occurred between 1930-49. All anomalies in excess of 5°C, including +7°C (referenced to 1961-1990) are from this period. No temperature anomalies from 2000-2019 exceeded 5°C. It shows no decade warmed faster than the 1930s and the current 'warming' finished in 2005. JRA55 SAT (2010-2020) shows most of the Canadian Arctic and Greenland cooling with parts of Canada cooling by 3°C and western Greenland cooling by 2.5°C in a decade. KNMI data (Twentieth Century Reanalysis V2c, 1851-2011, 68°N-80°N, 25°W-60°W, so Greenland) shows the most pronounced warming took place in the 1870s, and when comparing temperature anomalies, highest are in the 1930s and comparison of that period with recent temperature anomalies shows no net warming.
@gavinlawhite8721Күн бұрын
Great explanation; I actually understood it. Thanks for the work.
@grumpy13112 күн бұрын
It is an interesting perspective to think of how much change and impact our species is having on all others ..
@nottenvironmental62085 күн бұрын
Climate emergency is removing the biophysical basis of our existence while the insane global governance increases fossil fuels.
@darinhitchings71045 күн бұрын
@jason box Prof. Box, can I ask you a quick question? I'm writing a chapter for a book on tipping points, and I'm seeing massively different estimates for the rate of Greenland ice loss in the literature. I have DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06863-2 "Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022" which is talking about 63 Gt/year, and then I just now found a NASA web-site with an interactive graph that is talking about 268 Gt/year: climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/?intent=121. Which of these is correct?
@darinhitchings71045 күн бұрын
And some slides I put together for an hour-long presentation I gave (pro bono) to the American residential solar installation company, Sunrun (some of which I took form Prof. Box) docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Lo4N_7r51IP13Pxs0VSkDxeiyj1aP2X7O-TDwYGNDwE
@darinhitchings71045 күн бұрын
And this talk also is very, very good, powerful, and alarming... Sorry, might as well look your future full in the face. kzread.info/dash/bejne/ga6F1cyuqtWZj7A.html
@larswillsen6 күн бұрын
I climbed that left peak in August 1984 (and Qilertinnguit too) .. I grew up here up until we were sent to Europe to attend School back in 1979.
@JasonBoxClimate6 күн бұрын
Impressive
@larswillsen6 күн бұрын
Hi Jason, what exactly are you doing up there? .. Uummannaq is my hometown 🙂
@BombusMonticola7 күн бұрын
Looks so beautiful in that sun but sad beyond words they're melting too quickly
@grumpy13117 күн бұрын
What an amazing adventure of a lifetime! ✨️ Thank you for sharing these amazing places and interpreting evidence of rapid climate change. Be safe and go far Mr Box 🫡
@DustinBarlow8P7 күн бұрын
Wow you guys actually created a forest!... Now for some spooky stories set in a Greenland forest!
@rais19538 күн бұрын
Warm and sunny with a cloudless blue sky. Amazing for Greenland.
@wcfields73548 күн бұрын
A great place to be when it gets really hot
@Tommy_Barlow8 күн бұрын
Awesome videos. Any chance of a trip to Petermann Glacier this summer? We never see enough of that. I might try to go if there's a way to get there?
@nsbd90now9 күн бұрын
That was really interesting about water under pressure/thawing and shaping that rock.
@timwmartin179 күн бұрын
Thanks for sharing our better stories and caring so thoughtfully. And for visiting your mother when possible 😊
@Ed.R9 күн бұрын
I live on a Scottish island and see this in the rock. Left from the last ice age when the land was also lower so we have raised beaches.
@Tommy_Barlow9 күн бұрын
I grew up right in front of "Drummilling Hill" on the west coast of Scotland, which is a very clear drumlin. You can see a lot of them on the West Coast of Scotland. Also, all the way up the St.Lawrence River in Quebec. Very distinctive drumlins.
@richardshaw681910 күн бұрын
The only brightside is that it might cool down surface water like ice cubes, maybe stopping this feedback loop
@SkroMatt10 күн бұрын
like nature's churning process
@hinatasigosson881210 күн бұрын
GLOBAL WARMING OVERDRIVE. Thanks to imbeciles G.O.P.
@philipoakley549811 күн бұрын
Interesting insight into how the freeze/thaw action occurs around the leading/trailing edges of the rock formations (I know them a Roche moutonee). Common to see here in Scotland, but getting an explanation was good.
@russtaylor212211 күн бұрын
Non-normal, i'm guessing...?
@JasonBoxClimate11 күн бұрын
Lakes are not abnormal. But in a warming climate, the lakes contribute to a more sensitive ice sheet response.
@russtaylor212211 күн бұрын
@@JasonBoxClimate And a decrease in albedo...? We're suffering death by a thousand cuts...
@richardshaw681910 күн бұрын
@@JasonBoxClimate I live in the Maritimes which is not far off from there, we have been under a severe heatdome the past few days, Nova Scotia had the highest humidex on earth yesterday.
@russtaylor212211 күн бұрын
I'm feeling a bit melty today...
@TomiAnneTimm11 күн бұрын
For then will I turn to the people a pure language, that they may all call upon the name of the LORD, to serve him with one consent. Zephaniah 3:9 Authorized (King James) Version (AKJV)
@ptegsotica589510 күн бұрын
superstitious mumbo jumbo for the win! lol
@TomiAnneTimm10 күн бұрын
@@ptegsotica5895 Of how much sorer punishment, suppose ye, shall he be thought worthy, who hath trodden under foot the Son of God, and hath counted the blood of the covenant, wherewith he was sanctified, an unholy thing, and hath done despite unto the Spirit of grace?
@bradweir9 күн бұрын
Rock bottom post 😂
@rdklkje138 күн бұрын
Oooh, Jason has a disinformation bot fan, how exciting!
@TomiAnneTimm8 күн бұрын
@@rdklkje13 Yes, all will be excited when the Lord takes his fan in his hand, and he will throughly purge his floor, and will gather the wheat into his garner; but the chaff he will burn with fire unquenchable.
@brendonpywell11 күн бұрын
Thanks Jason. Do they all turn over .. and why? I'm guessing they get top heavy for some reason .. more melting from below? The ice cubes in my drink behave differently. Hmmm.
@JasonBoxClimate11 күн бұрын
When the ice breaks off of the glacier, it is usually in a shape that is hydrodynamic unstable and so it’ll tip over and find its Center of gravity
@russtaylor212212 күн бұрын
Yep. We are the heaviest link in the foodchain and therefore the most fragile...
@scottpearson969212 күн бұрын
I've always wanted to visit that exact town. It's a life goal to make it up there someday...
@JasonBoxClimate11 күн бұрын
Locals say that march is good since the ice is likely to form and thus connect settlements by dog sled and car travel.
@scottpearson969211 күн бұрын
@@JasonBoxClimate Thanks so much!! I REALLY appreciate the work you do and all your content. All eyes on the artic and Greenland this year as we are coming off an el nino year and I wonder if we are going to see lots of blocking patterns and/or some records melt rates and low sea ice extent.
@rdklkje138 күн бұрын
@@JasonBoxClimateSo this still happens? At the beginning of the video I was surprised to hear you start to speak about the rocks 20.000 years ago cos I was already thinking about Nissebanden anno 1989 and how the fjord ice was said to no longer be safe for transport already in 2010. Also, thanks for your work 💚
@russtaylor212212 күн бұрын
Cool...! Though not as cool as it once was. Cheers, Jason.
@stl132112 күн бұрын
Great to see you out amongst it again Jason.
@billhart983212 күн бұрын
Dr. Box, thanks for this little segment on one of the more prominent glacial features of my Western New York birthplace and the Finger Lakes region. Although my only geology class was a portion of my 8th grade science curriculum more than 50 years ago, the lesson stuck as there were so many examples surrounding us. This little glimpse from Cornell displays the wealth of specimens we're blessed with here. www.geo.cornell.edu/geology/classes/RWA/EAS_210/General/FL_topo/FLfromN.html
@robertalexander542212 күн бұрын
Jason "F-bomb" Box!! Good to see your latest!! Thx for all your work. Bob from Worthington.
@itsureishotout-itshotterin398512 күн бұрын
Nice seeing a Box-set of vids this morning - thanks for all of your work, Professor!
@DiscipleofHim12 күн бұрын
Good info...Here in Florida we are seeing drastic heat, sea rise and continued ascending temps. I am moving to Michigan out of Florida in four years because of the heat, overdevelopment and homelessness.
@justmenotyou315112 күн бұрын
Things would be much worse if not for DeSantis banning the term climate change from Florida laws. Thank god Florida has a clown like DeSantis in charge. ☠️💩
@chucklucas565312 күн бұрын
Would it be possible to "green house" young trees and plant them more mature ?
@EvolutionWendy12 күн бұрын
"The natural world is like a textbook that we can read with just a bit of knowledge." I'm so glad you're back in Greenland!, A place of fresh air and long views... bless you!!
@7hilladelphia12 күн бұрын
This marvellous information is tops 🎉 Thanks 🎉 !
@neuralnetwork1713 күн бұрын
Interesting. And that's a beautiful view of that mountain in the sun at the end.
@tinarhoades317813 күн бұрын
What is the temperature there? (Asking from a much too warm Pittsburgh, PA.)
@lshwadchuck564313 күн бұрын
Thank you. Those waves look cold.
@lshwadchuck564313 күн бұрын
Thanks for sharing this experience!
@MarkHopewell13 күн бұрын
Its good to see you back after your YT hiatus...
@beverleybarnes565613 күн бұрын
Fascinating scenery. Thanks
@kunstogkurser13 күн бұрын
⭐️
@carmelbrain739913 күн бұрын
Wow
@A3Kr0n13 күн бұрын
Wow is right! Jason Box burned all that fossil fuel just to shoot a video
@geofflusk13 күн бұрын
Have a great/successful trip, I look forward to when we can see each other again and I can pick your brain about your studies.
Пікірлер
The Arctic minimum summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 17 years. In the past few years it was almost as high as 1995. The probability that this could be due to chance has now dropped to 10% (after Swart et al calculations, 2015). If the hiatus continues until 2027, it will become statistically significant (p<0.05, or less than 5%) and no longer explainable by chance. Using National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) information for September minima (million km²): 2007 4.16 2008 4.59 2009 5.12 2010 4.62 2011 4.34 2012 3.39 2013 5.05 2014 5.03 2015 4.43 2016 4.17 2017 4.67 2018 4.66 2019 4.19 2020 3.82 2021 4.77 2022 4.67 2023 4.23 Plot the trend line for this data and it will be flat. ZERO net change in 17 years. The linear trend since 2007 is indistinguishable from zero ( around -0.17% per year ). In the early 1950s the sea ice concentration anomaly was lower than it is at present. The sea ice anomaly then rose during the 50s, 60s and 70s. This was followed by a decline. This is demonstrated in Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) data, which is based on historical sea ice charts from several sources (aircraft, ship, and satellite observations). The AARI data shows the sea ice concentration anomaly was lower in 1952 (-5%) than 2005 (-3%). The anomaly increased in the 50s, 60s and 70s. In the 80s, 90s and early 2000s it decreased. Since 2007 the trend has been flat. JAXA (Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency) satellite data from 2002 to 2024 Arctic Sea Ice Extent (365 day running average) shows no noticeable trend with values close to 10,000,000km² throughout. Their minimum extent for daily values was in 2012. No other year since has come close. MASIE (Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent - Northern Hemisphere) shows something similar to JAXA. From 2005 to 2024 Arctic Sea Ice Extent (365 day running average) shows no noticeable trend with values close to 10,000,000km² throughout. Their minimum extent for daily values was in 2012. Again no other year since has come close. It also shows a marked increase in Ice in the Greenland Sea since 2018. Polyakov et al (2003) show "ice extent (1900-2000) in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas provide evidence that long-term ice thickness and extent trends are small and generally not statistically significant". Trend -0.5% per decade (±0.7%). Vinje (2001) shows a deceleration in the rate of ice loss from 1864 to 2000. Recent sea ice extent is very high when compared to the last 10,000 years. Also changes in sea ice extent and the speed of those changes were greater in the past (Stein et al, 2017). NOAA's Global Time Series Average Temperature Anomaly monthly data (1995-2004) for the Arctic region shows the peak anomaly occurred in January 2016 (+5°C), another El Niño year, and the trend is now downwards (-0.33°C per decade). HadCRUT4 Arctic (70N - 90N) monthly surface air temperature anomalies record (1920-2021) shows the greatest number and magnitude of positive temperature anomalies occurred between 1930-49. All anomalies in excess of 5°C, including +7°C (referenced to 1961-1990) are from this period. No temperature anomalies from 2000-2019 exceeded 5°C. It shows no decade warmed faster than the 1930s and the current 'warming' finished in 2005. JRA55 SAT (2010-2020) shows most of the Canadian Arctic and Greenland cooling with parts of Canada cooling by 3°C and western Greenland cooling by 2.5°C in a decade. KNMI data (Twentieth Century Reanalysis V2c, 1851-2011, 68°N-80°N, 25°W-60°W, so Greenland) shows the most pronounced warming took place in the 1870s, and when comparing temperature anomalies, highest are in the 1930s and comparison of that period with recent temperature anomalies shows no net warming.
Great explanation; I actually understood it. Thanks for the work.
It is an interesting perspective to think of how much change and impact our species is having on all others ..
Climate emergency is removing the biophysical basis of our existence while the insane global governance increases fossil fuels.
@jason box Prof. Box, can I ask you a quick question? I'm writing a chapter for a book on tipping points, and I'm seeing massively different estimates for the rate of Greenland ice loss in the literature. I have DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06863-2 "Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022" which is talking about 63 Gt/year, and then I just now found a NASA web-site with an interactive graph that is talking about 268 Gt/year: climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/?intent=121. Which of these is correct?
And some slides I put together for an hour-long presentation I gave (pro bono) to the American residential solar installation company, Sunrun (some of which I took form Prof. Box) docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Lo4N_7r51IP13Pxs0VSkDxeiyj1aP2X7O-TDwYGNDwE
And this talk also is very, very good, powerful, and alarming... Sorry, might as well look your future full in the face. kzread.info/dash/bejne/ga6F1cyuqtWZj7A.html
I climbed that left peak in August 1984 (and Qilertinnguit too) .. I grew up here up until we were sent to Europe to attend School back in 1979.
Impressive
Hi Jason, what exactly are you doing up there? .. Uummannaq is my hometown 🙂
Looks so beautiful in that sun but sad beyond words they're melting too quickly
What an amazing adventure of a lifetime! ✨️ Thank you for sharing these amazing places and interpreting evidence of rapid climate change. Be safe and go far Mr Box 🫡
Wow you guys actually created a forest!... Now for some spooky stories set in a Greenland forest!
Warm and sunny with a cloudless blue sky. Amazing for Greenland.
A great place to be when it gets really hot
Awesome videos. Any chance of a trip to Petermann Glacier this summer? We never see enough of that. I might try to go if there's a way to get there?
That was really interesting about water under pressure/thawing and shaping that rock.
Thanks for sharing our better stories and caring so thoughtfully. And for visiting your mother when possible 😊
I live on a Scottish island and see this in the rock. Left from the last ice age when the land was also lower so we have raised beaches.
I grew up right in front of "Drummilling Hill" on the west coast of Scotland, which is a very clear drumlin. You can see a lot of them on the West Coast of Scotland. Also, all the way up the St.Lawrence River in Quebec. Very distinctive drumlins.
The only brightside is that it might cool down surface water like ice cubes, maybe stopping this feedback loop
like nature's churning process
GLOBAL WARMING OVERDRIVE. Thanks to imbeciles G.O.P.
Interesting insight into how the freeze/thaw action occurs around the leading/trailing edges of the rock formations (I know them a Roche moutonee). Common to see here in Scotland, but getting an explanation was good.
Non-normal, i'm guessing...?
Lakes are not abnormal. But in a warming climate, the lakes contribute to a more sensitive ice sheet response.
@@JasonBoxClimate And a decrease in albedo...? We're suffering death by a thousand cuts...
@@JasonBoxClimate I live in the Maritimes which is not far off from there, we have been under a severe heatdome the past few days, Nova Scotia had the highest humidex on earth yesterday.
I'm feeling a bit melty today...
For then will I turn to the people a pure language, that they may all call upon the name of the LORD, to serve him with one consent. Zephaniah 3:9 Authorized (King James) Version (AKJV)
superstitious mumbo jumbo for the win! lol
@@ptegsotica5895 Of how much sorer punishment, suppose ye, shall he be thought worthy, who hath trodden under foot the Son of God, and hath counted the blood of the covenant, wherewith he was sanctified, an unholy thing, and hath done despite unto the Spirit of grace?
Rock bottom post 😂
Oooh, Jason has a disinformation bot fan, how exciting!
@@rdklkje13 Yes, all will be excited when the Lord takes his fan in his hand, and he will throughly purge his floor, and will gather the wheat into his garner; but the chaff he will burn with fire unquenchable.
Thanks Jason. Do they all turn over .. and why? I'm guessing they get top heavy for some reason .. more melting from below? The ice cubes in my drink behave differently. Hmmm.
When the ice breaks off of the glacier, it is usually in a shape that is hydrodynamic unstable and so it’ll tip over and find its Center of gravity
Yep. We are the heaviest link in the foodchain and therefore the most fragile...
I've always wanted to visit that exact town. It's a life goal to make it up there someday...
Locals say that march is good since the ice is likely to form and thus connect settlements by dog sled and car travel.
@@JasonBoxClimate Thanks so much!! I REALLY appreciate the work you do and all your content. All eyes on the artic and Greenland this year as we are coming off an el nino year and I wonder if we are going to see lots of blocking patterns and/or some records melt rates and low sea ice extent.
@@JasonBoxClimateSo this still happens? At the beginning of the video I was surprised to hear you start to speak about the rocks 20.000 years ago cos I was already thinking about Nissebanden anno 1989 and how the fjord ice was said to no longer be safe for transport already in 2010. Also, thanks for your work 💚
Cool...! Though not as cool as it once was. Cheers, Jason.
Great to see you out amongst it again Jason.
Dr. Box, thanks for this little segment on one of the more prominent glacial features of my Western New York birthplace and the Finger Lakes region. Although my only geology class was a portion of my 8th grade science curriculum more than 50 years ago, the lesson stuck as there were so many examples surrounding us. This little glimpse from Cornell displays the wealth of specimens we're blessed with here. www.geo.cornell.edu/geology/classes/RWA/EAS_210/General/FL_topo/FLfromN.html
Jason "F-bomb" Box!! Good to see your latest!! Thx for all your work. Bob from Worthington.
Nice seeing a Box-set of vids this morning - thanks for all of your work, Professor!
Good info...Here in Florida we are seeing drastic heat, sea rise and continued ascending temps. I am moving to Michigan out of Florida in four years because of the heat, overdevelopment and homelessness.
Things would be much worse if not for DeSantis banning the term climate change from Florida laws. Thank god Florida has a clown like DeSantis in charge. ☠️💩
Would it be possible to "green house" young trees and plant them more mature ?
"The natural world is like a textbook that we can read with just a bit of knowledge." I'm so glad you're back in Greenland!, A place of fresh air and long views... bless you!!
This marvellous information is tops 🎉 Thanks 🎉 !
Interesting. And that's a beautiful view of that mountain in the sun at the end.
What is the temperature there? (Asking from a much too warm Pittsburgh, PA.)
Thank you. Those waves look cold.
Thanks for sharing this experience!
Its good to see you back after your YT hiatus...
Fascinating scenery. Thanks
⭐️
Wow
Wow is right! Jason Box burned all that fossil fuel just to shoot a video
Have a great/successful trip, I look forward to when we can see each other again and I can pick your brain about your studies.
Thank YOU Stay safe
Very beautiful scenes
Stay safe.