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@AGMI9

Жыл бұрын

funny you mentioned Peter the Great, Putin has referenced him before maybe thats why they are so focused on Bhakmut

@Themilesrock

Жыл бұрын

@@officecomputer8887 OK can you provide creditable information to counter this video?

@norbert-yy4be

Жыл бұрын

i have to say one thing , I love your videos to bits but this one was kinda bad . You kind of didnt answer any of the questions and jumped from ukraine to progodzin to ukraine and back and forth . im sorry if this criticism wasnt constructive . i love your videos either way .

@DaveLaurentSynth

Жыл бұрын

@MayaPoprotskaya knows more about this than anyone.

@ansonellis443

Жыл бұрын

Could you do a video on the Ukraine navy it before 2014 after 2014 and what it's future after the war will be.

Bakhmut WAS strategically important back in July-September. It was the keystone city of the Siversk-Soledar-Bakhmut defensive line, which was the only thing between the Russians and the major cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Taking Bakhmut would have turned the others into a culdron and gave them control of 3 sides of Slovyansk once said cauldron collapsed. Of course with the Kharkiv Offensive that entire northern flank is gone so...

@jameshill4900

Жыл бұрын

Ukraine commanders on the ground in recent interviews have claimed it is strategically important. Much of the European media also claims its strategic. So are the Ukrainians and European media falsely claiming this? What would be their motive?

@kurousagi8155

Жыл бұрын

Without Izyum and Lyman, I’m not certain as to the strategic value of Bakhmut. Tactically, it might be important because it’s the main point in the Ukrainian defense. But without the aforementioned cities, Russia can’t pincer northwards towards a southwards pincer from Izyum or Lyman to capture the entirety of Donetsk.

@trevorbirkbeck4011

Жыл бұрын

@@kurousagi8155 you are assuming the don't just roll back into Kharkov from the Russian border.

@QLEK99

Жыл бұрын

@@trevorbirkbeck4011 rolling with what? Mobilized civilians in trucks?

@kurousagi8155

Жыл бұрын

@@trevorbirkbeck4011 I mean Izyum was somewhat hard won for the Russians in the first place. Took them a month to take it back when Ukraine was still trying to get its act together.

Whether Russia takes Bakhmut or not, the city will be destroyed from the fighting (more than it already is) and it saddens me. Bakhmut is one of a very few Donbas cities with really old and beautiful architecture. It is a town built by merchants in XIX ct., and they cared how theirs buildings look. Russians hate it. The rest of Donbas settlements are of a post-WW2 simplistic Soviet architecture.

@infinitysck8094

Жыл бұрын

Wonderfully said! Also I never expected u to watch Task and purpose.

@G0TIMAN

Жыл бұрын

"Russians hate it. " - why?

@cykeok3525

Жыл бұрын

Sinking feeling thinking about this.

@geoffhatch4996

Жыл бұрын

@@G0TIMAN Because it is historical. They want to say Russia was the same forever and that is a sign that is not.

@Chironex_Fleckeri

Жыл бұрын

It's the military equivalent of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Russia is just hellbent on destroying everything it can. But all it does is make the situation for its own people worse. They are living in the 1800s geopolitically... it's disturbing and sad to see.

8:47 I know you are a simple infantry guy but all the bridges to resupply Kherson got blown up by Ukraine HIMARS. It was impossible to supply the 30k russian soldiers in the city and around it so it made sense to pull back and use the river as a natural barrier. It was the right move.

@jonathanjacob5453

Жыл бұрын

Also during WW2 the Soviets liberated Kherson by crossing the river where it was shallower and coming down from the north. This is probably what the Russians are going to do now.

@sajandevasia6636

Жыл бұрын

Don't say it like that westerners don't like to hear the truth and reality anymore they only believe their propaganda media that russia is weak and losing Ukraine is winning etc

@hb1338

Жыл бұрын

It was the only move.

@khalifa3335

Жыл бұрын

In fact, it was not only the "right" move, it was even the best move so far.

Bakhmut is important because it shields Soledar, Siversk and Bilohorivka from an encirclement. This defensive triangle is absolutely crucial to the counteroffensive near Kreminna, and losing them would even endanger all the northward supply lines through Lyman if Russia reaches Raihorodok.

@intelsolid1

Жыл бұрын

Thank you. We needed this comment

@abdusalamolamide

Жыл бұрын

Soledar is gone already.

There is another reason for Ukraine to defend Bakhmut: You have a relatively strong defensive position. Your enemy is low on forces and dedicating its best units here. So regardless of the city’s value, fighting this battle is in Ukraine’s interest.

@Bob_Adkins

Жыл бұрын

It's in Ukraine's best interest to fight this battle only if they can somehow make the battle unfair. They'll need excellent tactics and artillery support.

@angussoutter7824

Жыл бұрын

@@Bob_Adkins they have these you should see some of the intercepted calls from that area the Russian’s don’t know from one day to the next what their generals will say or do but their only constant in life is artillery barrages from Ukraine and trying to survive these hardly a force on the march

@haakonsteinsvaag

Жыл бұрын

@@Bob_Adkins The war in Ukraine is a war of attrition, Ukraine has a good defensive position, and if they can force the russians to loose more troops then they do for a relatively low value city, its a win for Ukraine. Also if Russia is committing their best forces in the east, then the war in the south which is the important front will be easier for Ukraine.

@MichaelMorotov

Жыл бұрын

Do you believe Trump is the resurrected Christ? If you believe before you see he establishes the millennium kingdom on the earth, you'll be invited. But if you believe after you see, the door will be closed. Now, a general of the Lord is resisting to Demonic Democrats, who try to interrupt his salvation! Join the volunteer army for Putin, and take part in the Birth of the Greatest Nation! after a year of campaign, you can be recognized as citizen of Russia. in Russia, there aren't deception or decadence, but honesty and justice.

@JohnSmith-gu6hf

Жыл бұрын

I think you're right on this. They can defend with less soldiers and inflict large casualties on Russia.

Bakhmut became a fundamental landmark in Wagner Group propaganda since summer. They claimed it many times: we took Severodonetsk, we took Lisichansk and Bakhmut is next target on our list. I think they have been caught by their own legend about invincibility: "never surrender and always archive objectives, no matter the cost". If they withdraw from Bakhmut, it will be a first public case of Wagner Group stratigically falling back, so they trying to avoid that at any cost. They trying to safe their face, because Prigozhin consider it a number one priority. Prigozhin dont have any military background, back in 80s he was a bandit and spent 5-10 years in soviet correctioanl facilities for multiple crimes. His structure is more like state-backed mafia with their own code and court, not a private army or some legal organization. That's why Wagner Group decisionmaking may look strange and inexplicable for someone outside their structure. Prigozhin is not a military commander or a public politician, he is the godfather of his clan.

@Crunchifyable2

Жыл бұрын

The Wagner group sort of reminds me of a bad French foreign legion. In the sense they will be known for their losses not their victories.

@shirghazaycowboys

Жыл бұрын

Funny how these were the same.idiots who tried to fight Americans and got their asses kicked. That shit was swept under the rug so fast

You really go above and beyond in your presentations. I'm a former F-14 RIO from your Dad's generation and I just want you to know that many of us see and appreciate the work you do to make these very well researched updates. You are far from 'average'. BZ! (That's US Navy for 'Well Done!')

@minifalda6611

Жыл бұрын

You might like Perun. Excellent analysis.

Excellent and Outstanding Analysis and Video!!!! Your Best Video Yet!!!

There is also an explanation that is similar to insanity, but actually reasonable and fairly well understood. In the absence of a better plan, broken military machines will often simply continue to do what they have been doing even though the context has changed. There are processes built into Western militaries at each level which are intended to force a re-examination of priors, to re-evaluate why an objective is important, and so forth. What looks like insanity may just be the broken wheel turning the cart in circles. Bakhmut may have been important, but they've been attacking for it so long they have forgot to re-examine why. There are so many examples of this.

@motomike3475

Жыл бұрын

Combination of what you said and others have said about "contracts" and payment plans. I agree. It seems like the obvious is rocket science to the great masses of the unwashed....and I'm not talking soley about Russians.

@dennisyoung4631

Жыл бұрын

That one bridge in the movie “apocalypse now?” The Do Lon (?) bridge?

@cellardoor9882

Жыл бұрын

You just described this war after they failed to take Kyiv after 3 days. No plan whatsoever, putin is betting that the supporting countries will get tired of the support. Even if that does happen, russia still has no chance of doing anything major regarding conquest

@carcharhinus_555

Жыл бұрын

Generally true - or let's say plausible, no global proof can be done - and the russian armed forces might be particularly vulnerable to this because of their "self enforcing lies". Perun did an awesome video on this subject. Ofc, it's just opinion, but for anybody who's had contact with russian armed forces, or even russian culture as a whole, it just rings so true. Video: kzread.info/dash/bejne/dWebxo-llKnOXbA.html

@Spencer10246

Жыл бұрын

The U.S. will shovel money at this until its conclusion. Trillions spent on a failed war in Iraq and Afghanistan and now for pennies on the dollar comparatively, military funding is absolutely crippling Russia for decades with no risk of it becoming unpopular as no American lives are being lost. It's a no brainer

One of the most recent POW interviews had a Russian soldier complaining that the only food they were given was heavily salted animal fat and heavily salted pickled cabbage, when he asked why it was so salty they said so that it doesn't freeze. Bakhmut is apparently central to the Russian supply of salted saurkraut.

@cucuawe465

Жыл бұрын

No wonder they fight so hard for salt city. To secure future food supply

@nimbledick9869

Жыл бұрын

@@cucuawe465 Saurkraut and Animal Fat is apparently more appetising covered in a heart stopping amount of salt than simply shoving in a stick and consuming it like a lollypop.

@anomymouse5043

Жыл бұрын

Russia plans to take over the world by dominating the saurkraut production?

@thekekronomicon590

Жыл бұрын

That's what all Russians eat salt pork and cabbage

@patverum9051

Жыл бұрын

@@thekekronomicon590 And CROW....

Fantastic analysis! This is the best insight into the situation I have seen. A lot of the stuff I see on Ytube do not have the depth.

Excellent video again! Thank you! You saved me a lot of research time again❤️

@koko_1989

Жыл бұрын

On a separate note, are you maybe planning a video on how article 5 works exactly? As far as I know it’s more complicated than “missile lands in Poland. So now everyone must move into Ukraine” And it would be useful for everyone to understand why that is not necessarily the case. What constitutes an “attack on a member state” and what doesn’t. And what happens exactly after such an attack.

The importance of Bakhmut is definitely downplayed. People who do flat map analysis make that mistake. Bakhmut is a naturally defensible position because of its geography. A modern castle city. The enemy loses way more than the standard 1:3 ratio going into Bakhmut. If you have to set up a bottleneck somewhere, this would be the place.

@Taskandpurpose

Жыл бұрын

It’s history as a castle city dates back to like the 1500s fascinating place , tragic it’s being destroyed

@nvelsen1975

Жыл бұрын

Plus it's an urban area. Ukrainian's infantry is superior over Russian, but Russia can concentrate more artillery. The prospect of urban combat for any reason within the Russian motivations should/would be a 'yes please' for Ukraine.

@Marco-tb1uj

Жыл бұрын

if you see any maps on bakmut you´ll discover that just behind it there is a higher ground. So taking it will open Russia to another slugfest and put them under artillery fire once again. I dare to say that just behind Bakmut, the russian will find another fortified line

@ontheruntonowhere

Жыл бұрын

@@slavaukraine7934 Supported by multiple Russian retreats and other failures. If the Russian infantry is superior, why haven't they taken Bakhmut after all these months? Why couldn't they hold Kherson? Why the rout in Kharkiv? Also, it's not even the Russian infantry; it's a mercenary force, presumably because the regular infantry can't cut it. The only Russian force advancing anywhere in Ukraine is Wagner, and even they aren't doing very well.

@johnathanhughes9881

Жыл бұрын

@Slava Ukraine It depends what you mean. If you're talking pure numbers, the Ukrainians are now in the ascendency (at least in theatre). If you're talking training and strategy, the Ukrainians are in the ascendency. If you're talking morale, then the Ukrainians are in the ascendency. If you're talking equipment, then the Ukrainians are in the ascendency. So . . depending on the metric used, it could be the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians or the Ukrainians who have the superior force. ;)

The story around Bakhmut is definitely one of the most complicated, I'm just gonna name a few important factors why this battle is happening at this scale: a) It does hold a bit of symbolic value: After Bakhmut was captured by separatists and then recaptured in 2014, it became very important for the 2014/2015 war as it was the biggest city on the Ukrainian side close to the battlefield with hospitals and other relevant infrastructure. It was then renamed from Artemivsk to Bakhmut in 2015 to eradicate the links to communism and indirectly Russia - the Russians still call it by its Soviet name of Artyomovsk. So, in short, there's a slight Stalingrad situation going on here, where Bakhmut is a bit of a red rag for the Russians. b) Russia's minimum goal for the war in Ukraine has been (since the withdrawal from Kyiv in early April) to control all of the Donbas (aka Donetsk and Luhansk oblast) plus Crimea, and this minimum goal probably hasn't changed since then. So there's a bit of a "we have to take Bakhmut anyway, come hell or high water" logic going on here that keeps them trying. c) Bakhmut is relatively good to defend, so it's worth holding on to rather than recapture it later, even if you pay a slightly higher price for it. d) Since the fall of Lysychansk in early July, Ukraine hasn't lost any settlement that is remotely close in size to Bakhmut, so losing it would seriously weaken the current narrative of "Russia tries to attack in all kinds of directions, but Ukraine is able to repel ANY attack nowadays and is the only side able to advance". So in a way, Bakhmut has become for important for Ukrainian morale after their successful counteroffensives. For the same reason, capturing it would be a boost for Russian morale. e) It is somewhat convenient for the Ukrainians after recapturing Lyman in early October, since they can now move the army via the Lyman-Bakhmut-Horlivka railway in a very short time, so it's now part of an easy-to-supply frontline that the Russians would really like to break. Before the liberation of Lyman, Bakhmut (and Lyman) were the potential salients of a pincer movement for the Russians. f) Bakhmut is one of few suitable targets for the Wagner group. Since Wagner is made up of all kinds of criminals, Russia isn't really keen on mixing them with regular units, so they are assigned an isolated area of the frontline. With Russian command structures, Wagner units also can't participate in large scale operations together with the rest of the Russian army. Bakhmut is really the only place were the Russians can use Wagner, since a) the Ukrainians wouldn't really profit from a breakthrough at Bakhmut, so holding the line, elastic defense and so on is less important than in other areas and b) unlike in other areas of the front, Russia is not aiming for a deep operation that would require cooperation, since breaking through all of the Ukrainian defenses quickly is impossible in this area. Thus, Bakhmut is a good isolated target that doesn't need coordination between tens of thousands of troops to attack. g) Pro-Russian media outlets have actively tried to hype up Bakhmut as the "battle the main stream media doesn't want to tell you about" and the next big victory for the Russians, so withdrawing would take some explaining. Ultimately, Russia itself probably couldn't answer why exactly Bakhmut is important - for Ukraine, it is quite convenient to defend Bakhmut since Russia is wasting a disproportionate amount of troops there. We've probably reached a point were fighting has gone on so long that neither side wants to back down anymore out of principle, especially when you have lost as many troops as Russia.

@Michael-oe2ew

Жыл бұрын

Nice analysis. 2 highways, a rail line, and within artillery range of Ukraine command and supply positions makes Bakhmut a strategic city. Your emotional, propaganda, and morale arguments make it more so. Thank you.

@conormacneill8284

Жыл бұрын

So Bakhmut is basically a reverse Verdun?

@saltydog9321

Жыл бұрын

great post, how do you know all this?

@belajarolics6529

Жыл бұрын

Fantastic summary! I would add that the largest Ukrainian gas field, which the Hunter wanted to produce, is located under this area. The Russian pipeline connecting Kramatorsk and Tiraspol in Transistria passes through this area.This also shows that the Russian territorial occupation will extend to Odessa and Transistria as well. These are areas inhabited by significant Russians. This is how I see it from Hungary.

@philliptemple9841

Жыл бұрын

Good analysis and thanks for taking the time to type all that out for us! Much appreciated. Phillip.

if you overlap the map of estimated gas and oil deposits in ukraine and the russian offensive you can see some similarities

@Taskandpurpose

Жыл бұрын

I’ve been considering that , it could be why Russia is seemingly more concerned about Donetsk region instead of Kherson . It could help explain that .

@ChilledfishStick

Жыл бұрын

And the rate of American high-school graduates, correlates to the increase in pizza consumption. Coincidence? I'll let you be the judge. Russia has natural resources coming out of their ears. They also deny Ukraine the ability to utilize their own resources, from the instability they cause alone. Regardless, Russia is facing vastly more pressing issues right now.

@michaelpettersson4919

Жыл бұрын

Yep. Russia have plent of oil and gas themselves so they do not need Ukraine's resources but they cannot tolerate that Ukraine access to thease resources.

@whaynelongjhonsondanglesmo986

Жыл бұрын

Your right.

@specialnewb9821

Жыл бұрын

The thing here is even if Ukraine ends up with the area post war, Russia is close enough to sponsor troublesome activities. Infrastructure also takes a ton of time to build out from 0 as the area is now rubble. So I am skeptical it has that much influence.

"Wouldn't it have made sense to reinforce Kherson rather than Bakhmut?" No, it wouldn't. The supply wasn't there for the 30k troops that were in Kherson and it won't get any better if now there are 50-60k troops in Kherson if the already insufficient supply would be cut even further.

@Taskandpurpose

Жыл бұрын

True true

@Pnumi

Жыл бұрын

If the Russians has stayed in Kherson, the Ukrainians would have blown the Kakhovka Dam, because the Ukrainians are desperate, not Putin.

@JoseRojas-hs1wq

Жыл бұрын

Isn’t there a damn that could flood Kherson?

@atrekkers

Жыл бұрын

@@JoseRojas-hs1wq there is, but the problem is that there are two banks of the Dnipro river: left and right. Right bank is higher above the sea level, so if Kakhovka Dam will be destroyed and the enormous stream of water will be released, it will drown left bank rather than right. Who is located on the left bank of Dnipro River? Exactly, russian troops. So if russian troops will destroy this dam, they will hurt themselves in the first place. Or they will need to move further away from Dnipro River. Lose-lose situation for russia, so i don't think it will happen. However, considering how dumb russian troops are, everything is possible

Great analysis. Thanks very much!

Very interesting analysis! Thanks

What I think, is that with Wagner being a mercenary group, is that part of their contract is to take the city, before receiving some kind of payout, or contract advancement. At the start of the conflict, I would not be surprised if a list of objectives as prerequisites for payment and material was laid out, and this city is on this list. No city, no payout.

@jasonquigley2633

Жыл бұрын

Wagner is de facto a branch of the Russian army. I don't think they'd be so bound by such strict contract conditions. I think it is likely Prigozhin has staked his reputation on winning here though, but 200m a day isn't good enough for one of Russia's most elite forces.

@LuvBorderCollies

Жыл бұрын

@@jasonquigley2633 Yes. The Wagner Group reports directly to Putin and its a Russian army formation like any other, except the chain of command is MUCH shorter to the top. But Putin needs someone to do the really ugly evil he desires, but he needs a cover, a scapegoat to blame.

@ssgus3682

Жыл бұрын

I don't think that as Putin might have screwed up with invading Ukraine but he is not dumb enough to not pay mercenaries

@katrinapaton5283

Жыл бұрын

I feel you may have a point. Ive heard that some Russian mercenarys are paid on ground captured. This may explain why some attacks seem completely pointless on a military level but if you can gain ground without too much of a fight you're fulfilling the brief. In that regard, even 200M a week may seem worth while.

@mri3384

Жыл бұрын

Who writes and enforces the contract? Putin’s court?

This reminds me of one of my military history professor's favorite sayings: If you are weak enough to need mercenaries, you are weak enough for them to take you over.

@memenadekhanh3992

Жыл бұрын

Nothing wrong with using merc.

@popnorbert8465

Жыл бұрын

@@memenadekhanh3992 Giving them the amount of political and military power that Russia has given them, that's the issue.

@Sneedmeister

Жыл бұрын

your professor sounds like a god damn retard because America uses tons of mercs and PMCs

@BigLANCEALOT

Жыл бұрын

i guess thats why carthage got took over my mercs huh

@PaulVerhoeven2

Жыл бұрын

Who aren't mercenaries these days? Everyone is paid. Well, Russian conscripts and mobilized are forced to serve, but still paid a little.

Very interesting analysis - many thanks!

Thanks for your contribution

Our (Ukrainian) analysts also think that Bakhmut has become not so much a strategic military target as a political one. It is important for Prigozhin to show results, while he will assure that he achieved this by killing only prisoners, and not regular troops. They also used a blunt frontal attack against Pavlovka for a long time, and when they finally occupied it, it turned out that it was perfectly shot from a height and the Russians simply being there began to suffer heavy losses

@brandony8691

Жыл бұрын

Bingo. By now, the Russians have at least some clarity into the state of their offensive and see that it's pretty obviously a failure. The only way for Prigozhin (and Putin for that matter) to end this soon without their heads on a stick is to take Bakhmut and then fabricate a half-baked story of why that was the purpose for the war in the first place.

@johannjohann6523

Жыл бұрын

but you can bet Russia won't report it that way. sending prisoner's to the front line - hasn't proved to be the best strategic decision so far. Russia is at least persistent.

@Dan-ks2qw

Жыл бұрын

@@johannjohann6523 Prigozhin wants to present this achievement to the people as his own, just as opposed to the Russian army under the control of the Ministry of Defense. He publicly told the Russians "either prisoners or your children." It's funny that mobilization began shortly after that, but this only plays into his hands. He tries to present himself as a bandit with a heart of gold, although in reality he is just a sadist and a maniac.

@mibox2654

Жыл бұрын

kzread.infoqW2chiQAO1Y?feature=share

@kennethferland5579

Жыл бұрын

Yea it not that Bakhmut was never strategic or has lost all strategic value now. It's that it's being over-invested in due to percived political value. But then because this is a hybrid war in which public opinion around the world and in Russia matters if a target has percived propaganda value then in a self-fufilling narrative it IS valuable in a very real sense because Russia is now at the point where it dose not have the luxury of focusing only on long-term goals, it has to make more short-term and population appeasing moves.

Is it also possible that Ukraine is dedicating so many forces to Bakhmut is because that is where Russia’s most combat effective troops - the Wagner Group - are located en mass? Essentially providing them a potential opportunity to take a sizable chunk of flesh from the flower of their enemy’s forces?

@sintalentoful

Жыл бұрын

Tie them down in favourable ground (as Cappy pointed out). Keep their focus and limited resource there.

@murphy7801

Жыл бұрын

Yes I agree might be the case. That Russia is feeding meat into a strategic advantageous position so the Ukrainians are using it to meat grinder.

@user-bi7xd8ry5p

Жыл бұрын

I also thought that. It could be Verdun all over again.

@barbeonline351

Жыл бұрын

Seriously, where else should Russia attack? Donetsk and Luhansk are the only regions Russia can ever expect to hold. All the territory west of Mariupol, including Crimea can't be safely resupplied at this point. And I don't know conclusively, but those two oblasts seem to have the only residents willing to fight to stay Russian.

@cheeseninja1115

Жыл бұрын

as the saying goes, never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. I feel Ukraine might be pinning Wagner in Bakhmut just so they can pin them. Why fight them in an important city when you can bleed them dry in favorable terrain

Like this format. Great video.

Thanks buddy. Always outstanding analysis.

Russian speaker here. I love how you pronounce Prigozhin differently every time and I must admit a couple of times you were pretty close!

@Elbuarto

Жыл бұрын

Half the entertainment value of this channel is hearing how Cappy butchers slav names 😆

@LondonSteveLee

Жыл бұрын

He cannot even pronounce "S" (es) sounds in English without saying "sh" - what chance has he at Russian?

@ivansemenchuk1489

Жыл бұрын

My favorite was Prognozin. It reminded me of the weather reports on TV.

@wizardforge7735

Жыл бұрын

Prigoshit or prihosin. Whatever . In any case this ball head guy is a bloody murderer.

I do love the fun delivery of your previous vids but I also quite enjoyed the seriousness of this one. Good content as usual!

Thank you for your videos and good analysis.

Your branching into larger military strategy is much appreciated.

Great analogy and perspective.

Astute analysis. Thank you.

Thanks for the quality content 👍

I researched Bakhmut several months ago when it was a strategic focus after the fall of Severodonetsk. The 53rd Mechanized Brigade was based in Severodonetsk, and fell back to Bakhmut and reenforced the 54th Mechanized Brigade, based in Bakhmut, when Severodonetsk fell. Then the 54th Mech was reinforced with 100+ tanks, and many other armored vehicles. The city has both 155mm artillery and HIMARS.

@Deno2100

Жыл бұрын

Ukraine is believed to have less that 200 tanks at this point. It obviously true because no video of UAF tank operations come out anymore. Notice in all the videos UAF are in HUMVEEs, MRAP and M2. None of their original fleet survived past two months ago.

@Tamachii12

Жыл бұрын

@@Deno2100 They don't need tanks for their thunder runs, since tanks would slow down IFV due to terrain so it is obvious that no tanks are shown...

@pedrorequio5515

Жыл бұрын

@@Deno2100 I believe I saw a vídeo yesterday of the battle in Pervomaisk near Donetsk and this is not true Ukraine still has a lot of tanks, 200 is just not possible they capture almost 100 in the Kharkiv offensive alone from the 4th guards tank division.

@tim4570

Жыл бұрын

@@Deno2100 Actually there was a tank duel that was posted up by both sides recently Ukrainian POV was 3 days ago, Russian POV was yesterday, either way supply, fuel included is gonna suck for both sides on this campaign

@tim4570

Жыл бұрын

@@pedrorequio5515 Yeah that’s the one I saw, drone footage was great on it

Awesome 👍 update on the war in Ukraine, extremely informative, telling, thought Provoking, at the same time, very uplifting & empowering for Ukraine

Thank you. This vid is as relevant now as when it was first uploaded 2 weeks ago.

Thank you for the work you put into these, you put things into rational perspective rarely seen in news media today.

I assume Ukraine keeps holding this town just because it's a good point to make maximum damage to Russian.

@georgegavrylenko1031

Жыл бұрын

And to make enemy forces busy as hell

@SherrifOfNottingham

Жыл бұрын

Ah yes the war of attrition, if you're losing fewer soldiers per day in a position, it's a strategically advantageous position. Just, you are losing soldiers, which is hard for people to remember that every body is a human body, somebody that struggled through school, had childhood friends and memories, overcame bullying or was a bully, had their first love, second or third even. They're real people, and while the "war of attrition" sounds good on paper, the people dying on the line to hold a position with no real strategic value is heartbreaking, even if you're winning.

@kdub3890

Жыл бұрын

That's my thought as well. If this is where the largest concentration of Russian forces is, it's where the Ukrainians come to meet them. It only has to be important to one side for there to be a battle. You don't meet 30K mercenaries with a half-assed effort.

@appa609

Жыл бұрын

Idk... they must be running low on msnpower now too.

@Snumryk

Жыл бұрын

@@SherrifOfNottingham On the other hand Ukraine soldiers know that of thay not hold this town the next one will be their own home town.

Very good video

Thanks!

It's about the natural resources. I remember when my brother and I were discussing the discovery of giant reserves in that part of Ukraine back in 2013. He bluntly stated no way Russia lets Ukraine mine those resources. A year later, Russia starts a civil war near the region.

@joelmccoy9969

Жыл бұрын

Putin's war is one of colonial dominance to gain monopolistic control over food, mineral resources, and export facilities. A mob boss is always trying to expand income and control.

@xo121w

Жыл бұрын

yep, and crimea has all oil

@hemantgokhale4164

Жыл бұрын

Entire Ukraine was a part of Russia since 17xx. and was given away by Gorbachev as a peace gesture in 1991.unfortunatley this resulted in the West trying to provoke Ukr to fight Russia You are merely reporting the same BS as WaPO NYT WSJ CNN .Russians only withdrew from Kherson with 125000 residents and40000 or so troops to help save lives .now the Ukrmercenaries who have occupied Kherson have walked into a trap from which they will come out dead Kindly study how how the seige of Moskow was broken and the Nazi forces defeated and annihilated .See Col Mc Gregor a US war veteran of Serbia Iraq and AF to understand the stupidity of the collective West

@fpsgenerator

Жыл бұрын

If you think Putin started this war because of some coal and salt then you know nothing

@xo121w

Жыл бұрын

@@hemantgokhale4164 are you an idiot? Russia was founded by founders of Kiev. so should russia belong to kiev now?

Can we get a video talking about all of the defensive positions being dug in and build up? Been seeing a lot about dragons teeth tank traps and prefab concrete bunkers. Is the battlefield really going to stagnate that much over the winter? Loved the video! Keep the good content rolling!

@CDSAfghan

Жыл бұрын

It worked really well for the french...

@ionnanskilliorus6877

Жыл бұрын

Those Dragon Teeth are about as useful as the cope cages and are probably a scheme to make money for some Russian officers.

@Taskandpurpose

Жыл бұрын

That’s a great idea I’ll need to dig into that more !

@AlexAnder-dh8qz

Жыл бұрын

Funny thing, both you mentoined are used by russians at left side of Dniper river near the Kherson. Looks a bit too weak to really stop a tank and especially to protect personnel from artillery fire.

@jasonprivately1764

Жыл бұрын

The "dragon's teeth fortification effort is abysmal at best. There is no cohesive planning or proper installation of these delaying efforts. The barricaded trenches are much to long and once targeted by a simple drone artillery will make short use of these artificial grave sites

Or, it is what everyone said when Sieverdonetsk fell, the next defensive line and if it falls the next line will be Kramatorsk. The strategic value comes from it being a prepared defensive line.

Audio my dude, audio... Your channel will take off once you get that in check.. Love the vids!

bakhmut was important in 2014-15 was because its the last town with a hospital before the frontline, so its been used by the Ukraine military as a staging & command point since then but since the frontline has moved so does the staging area. As to why ua is putting alot of resources into bakhmut is because its a defensible location that protects the current staging and command points.

good stuff cappy. i think the desk and mic is a good set up btw. keep the spare parts humor.

I do wonder if there's an additional reason for the attacks in bakhmut and the surrounding areas: it suits their current offensive tactics. Their artillery led attacks require a lot of logistics. Bakhmut isn't far from the separatist areas so they will have supply networks in place. The rear area is secure. Separatists have infantry to guard flanks and supply lines. You want to conduct artillery led attritional warfare then the infrastructure is in place to attack at bakhmut.

Before this war, I had never seen one of your videos. For the last nine months, you have been my main source for in-depth Russia-Ukraine war analysis. Your measured, sensible, and multi-faceted views on this war have been astounding. All of your videos are truly 60 Minutes or AP level in deep-dive knowledge and birds-eye objectivity. You may be an average infantryman, but you have the heart of an ideal journalist.

Gettysburg wasn’t a significant city but it was an important place because that’s where the armies met. Bakhmut will be a head on clash a proper battle where quite a large number of forces on both sides meet up.

@bradleykreider3358

Жыл бұрын

It also broke Lee's undefeated streak. He was under a lot of pressure because of his "unbeatable" myth and because of the nature of the war (need to take it to the North) to push the tempo and he spent all his momentum attacking the fortified positions of the Union troops. We can only hope that Bakhut is the Gettysburg of this war (i mean military operation).

@primkup

Жыл бұрын

@@bradleykreider3358 Lee's "undefeated streak" was already broken at Antietam a year before, it just wasn't a complete catastrophe because he managed to save his army.

@atoll8423

Жыл бұрын

@@bradleykreider3358 Lee never had "undefeated streak". Even early Confederate newspapers questioned his abilities. He was only elevated after Albert Johnston died in battle.

In depth and concise report that is always time we'll spent for viewership. Good work Capster!

"A Washington based think tank says" All I needed to hear lol

If we were to find any practical reason for such stubbornness, a nearby town Chasiv Yar hosts the pipe stations on the canal "Siverskyi Donets - Donbas" that feeds water for a large part of Donetsk.

A supporting factor is that supplies come out of Rostov on Don, one of the two major cities/transportation routs supplying the Russian war effort. The other is Belgorod. Belgorod doesn't have the capacity to supply a larger force with the main road/rail connection south going through Ukrainian Kharkiv and only a secondary rail link going into Luhansk.

If you're, "Just an ordinary Infantryman", the quality of Our Army Personnel is outstanding. I really enjoyed this synopsis/analysis. My Reserve Designator was 1635, and you detail and present very professionally. BTW in MA, Vets get Their tuition waived in the Public University System. Undergrads 2-4 and my grad work cost me 20K, total. Because I was commissioned, I had to pay fees and wasn't paid to matriculate and attend, like the returning enlisted, Combat Vets from the Iraq and Afghanistan Conflicts. But exposure to these great young Men and Women on my last undergrad made me observe, perhaps not all is lost for America. Again, Thank You.

@matthewobuchowski2502

Жыл бұрын

I was 11b for 5 years then went 19d for almost 5 years I got injured during oef I was going to reinlist and get that tax free bonus but instead of a re-up I got a t.b.i and 3broken vertibre

@scottwolf8633

Жыл бұрын

@@matthewobuchowski2502 My Active Designator 1315, and after my mandatory required Time, discharged. 3rd generation NAV. My Grandfather, an enlisted, Blackshoe on a Sub Chaser. My Father, Special Operator, Beach Jumper/UDT Officer. I just performed my obligation to the greatest Country in History. Luckier than most. Forever grateful for your sacrifice, Matthew.

@KennyNGA

Жыл бұрын

He didnt learn this in the army Watch his first Videos he improved by himswlf

@scottwolf8633

Жыл бұрын

@@KennyNGA In the NAV We were trained to break down a seemingly improbable task into small, discrete, doable, steps to accomplish the overall goal. I'll wager the Army is the same.

Excellent report. Now my favorite site. The only negative is the embedded ad that requires clicking through to get back to the information. The ad is for only one product. Why not simply delete it and use KZread ads?

Obviously, it's complicated. Very complicated. Great analysis.

Bakhmut isn't strategically important but it is what the Soviets termed a "meeting engagement". Much like Stalingrad. Also, this isn't Russia, it's Wagner Group. Mercenaries.

@werfault4076

Жыл бұрын

Mercenaries on paper, Russian army on practice.

@elperronimo

Жыл бұрын

@@werfault4076 thats like saying a contractor works for you because he does what you want. Like, yeah bro

@sussybakagaming2613

Жыл бұрын

@@werfault4076, you meant to say Wagnerites on paper, Ruzzian prisoners in reality 😂

@tringuyen7519

Жыл бұрын

Stalingrad? So Ukraine wants to make the battle for Bakmut so expensive that Russia abandons Donetsk?

@PLONG12345

Жыл бұрын

Damn 30,000 troops with Aircrafts and tanks are just mercenaries?

Thanks for making a complicated situation more understandable.

@Taskandpurpose

Жыл бұрын

Glad it was helpful man ! Thanks for watching

@gabrielcanejo187

Жыл бұрын

@@TaskandpurposeThis video actually explains a lot behind the insane Russian actions and tactics in this war and why they behaving like they are, probably the best video explaining that there is: kzread.info/dash/bejne/eK5pm6mQlbevmc4.html. It's a hour long vídeo but it's more then Worthy, i know you don't do reactions and especially not with a hour long video but you definitly should do a video later about that after you watch It. Big Fan of the Channel.

@jackd1582

Жыл бұрын

He's had far better ones.. the road link was obvious. His take on kerson is off

@MoonlightVKV

Жыл бұрын

Of course, he's the voice of the U.S regime propaganda machine.

@williamyoung9401

Жыл бұрын

Agincourt, Gettysburg and Stalingrad were insignificant places too, until massive armies converged on their location.

Actually Bahkmut is of very strategic importance due to its centralized location. Which could be why so many troops being concentrated for the advance there. It's a prime spot for a rear operations base should they push further into Ukraine and it's also prime territory as a central staging ground for encircling actions to the north or to the south. Also people think that this new wave of attacks are going to follow the former tactics previous to now. That's where things go vastly different where Russia will no longer be pursuing a policing action strategy similar to Iraq but a gloves off strategic basis which boils down to all out, gloves off warfare more similar to WW2.

@AP-qs2zf

Жыл бұрын

Not really . Russian🐷 are gloves off policy now and gains are still marginal. Bahkmut is a grave yard for orcs

@cdickenson82

Жыл бұрын

@@AP-qs2zf if you think this is gloves off then I'm afraid that you have a poor understanding of military doctrine, capabilities and history.

@khalifa3335

Жыл бұрын

@@cdickenson82 I agree. We are not yet at "gloves off". Putin is waiting for General Winter...

@manoftheroad55

Жыл бұрын

Dont exspect media to tell trueth ...seems on annerversary its fallen

@Task & Purpose, that microphone sounds way too "tinny" (thin-sounding, missing the mid-range of the speech range). Any "podcast microphone" that you can find at Best Buy is going to have deficiencies. If you can bump up the speech midrange frequencies in software, it might help. The Shure SM7B would be a much better choice, by the way.

I like the new, slightly different format. It feels more professional and gives you more credibility. Keep up the good work on the interesting content!

Dude the salt mines are the reason that city is so important. There are literally hundreds of miles of salt tunnels. It being winter out and it being ukraine; those salt mine are the perfect refuge due to them staying a constant wsrm temperature no matter how cold it gets outside. So those mines are both literally and metaphorically a spa day for whoever troops occupy that area

@paulwise6856

Жыл бұрын

Fill em up with water, hot tub

@ianshaver8954

Жыл бұрын

It’s 2022. Salt is a strategic mineral no longer.

@paulwise6856

Жыл бұрын

@@ianshaver8954 he's saying it's a good place to get out of the cold I'm saying they can flood them out, no mention of strategic value

@LondonSteveLee

Жыл бұрын

@@ianshaver8954 Warmth is always a strategic resource.

@greybuckleton

Жыл бұрын

I guess those salt mines are actually a great place to store supplies and ammo as well. Safe from strikes.

Comprehensive, yet quick and comprehensive. Substitution... Oops subscription Jutsu 😁🌹

More please

All I wanted to say is R.I.P to the 100s of thousands of troops that have lost there lives in this war. 😔

@kingofmambo

Жыл бұрын

For ukrainian troups yes, fuck russian orcs

@Deno2100

Жыл бұрын

100s of thousands of troops have not been lost in this war. Even Ukraine has not lost 200,00 so you cant refer to their loses as 100s of thousands, just tens of thousands and Russia has barely lost more than 20,000 so you cant even refer to their loses as tens of thousands just thousands.

@RomeGod177

Жыл бұрын

@@Deno2100 no one can know for sure what the loses are. But I was referring to the total on both sides of this conflict. An this war isn't even over yet so the number is just going to keep going up.

@patverum9051

Жыл бұрын

@@Deno2100 As usual multiply russian losses by 4...so 80,000 would be correct.

@TheRevan1337

Жыл бұрын

@@Deno2100 Russia's lost 80k

Cappy: You did really good job on this one. Besides it feeling a little cut off at the end, this was your best presentation/show on geopolitics. Good work.

If you look at Bahkmut on the map, it is geographically important in that there are many cities surrounding it that are themselves startegically important, such as Severedonetsk and Slovyansk to the north, Kramatorsk to the west, Lugansk to the east and Donetsk to the south. Not to mention that fact that it is located right next to the main arterial route south from Izyum. So, of course it has high strategic and logistical importance.

I suspect that it is important precisely because it is a fortress city, It helps to hold territory thanks to its strong defense. That doesn't make it smart to attack it when you have to pull forces from everywhere else. Being part of a defensive line means that if it is conquered, it will be harder to defend your territory. It also tends to mean it is extremely difficult to conquer.

Sloviansk and Kramatorsk have been in russian artillery range for most of the war. Your map literally shows that, the reconquered blue territory was retaken pretty recently. Bakhmut was important, and still is because it’s one of the bigger cities in the areas, but it’s not that important either. And until spring, when the thaw comes supply lines won’t be such a big problem as the ground freezes in the Donbass and the area until you get to the Siverski Donetsk river is pretty flat and with not many forests.

@penguinstan687

Жыл бұрын

You also should add "IF" to ground freezes, because naturally the last few winters in Ukraine have been at a positive 5/7+ celcium during entire winter. with some occasional drops

@russiansponge9813

Жыл бұрын

@@penguinstan687 you are right, but snow has already fallen in Kharkiv and temperatures are around freezing as of late November, Kharkiv is a bit more to the North though so we’ll have to wait and see what happens

@penguinstan687

Жыл бұрын

@@russiansponge9813 let's see if it persists

Around 400 Russian conscripts just walked off the battlefield today in the area of Burkhut . they put out a video saying they were left with no officers, no food, rusty weapons and were losing dozens of men a day.

@MusMasi

Жыл бұрын

they might have better conditions and safety as Ukrainian POWs.

@genericscout5408

Жыл бұрын

@@MusMasi at least until they turn into Russian torture victims in the next month.

@anomymouse5043

Жыл бұрын

So there IS also some sanity among Russians?

@ztkilla

Жыл бұрын

@@MusMasi not if they were vaginer mercenaries

@MmmM-uo6ti

Жыл бұрын

Source trust NATO Jihadists BOT bro

I come here for the solid military analysis that I admire and respect, and the absolute chomped laungauge disaplay word English all good a fun watch that i learn id from I totally did it was informative and keep going dude you are an expert and convey your points really well. Edit: I'm not being sarcastic or snide I enjoy your channel and the insight you provide, but like to make fun of yr insane pronunciation

Bakhmut clearly has the straightest run of railroad passing directly through it, that will be a good shipping line from up north, to get down to Crimea. Without it, they will have to go quite a bit further south and east, into a much more congested area.

This channel grew in less than a year from goofy cool gun videos to great analysis of the war, geopolitics, strategy and tactics. Thank you for your hard work and the aspiration to improve!

@freddie_mvp

Жыл бұрын

Good point!

@TsarOfRuss

Жыл бұрын

except he is often wrong, especially in Geopolitics, but i dont blame him, he can only repeat what he is being told.. he never mentioned Obama's coup of Yanukovich started this war in the first place

@matthewneddeau7993

Жыл бұрын

@@TsarOfRuss the Ukrainians overthrew him because he corrupt. All Obama did was cheerlead on the side lines. Despite conspiracy theorists and Putin thinking otherwise, not every coup is orchestrated by the US

@alexcheremisin3596

Жыл бұрын

@@TsarOfRuss sureeee "Tsar"

@maka6134

Жыл бұрын

@@TsarOfRuss Sure obama flew in on a pony and took over the minds of Ukrainian citizens making them overthrow the pro Russian government. Or do you perhaps think they were all secretly cia operatives that created clones of regular Ukrainian citizens and replaced them with pro western ones.

I went to Bakhmut many times. It has a rail connection but not nearly as goods as the one at Konstantinovska. It was the Donetsk regional capital in the 1930s before Yuzhny was renamed City of Donetsk and the capital moved there. There were no ugly coal mines or slag heaps. Just a modern LaFarge gypsum factory and a factory that made sparkling wine guaranteed to give you a hangover. It was the only city in the Donbass that wasn''t a dump. It had nice tidy lawns and elegant Stalinist architecture. It is not "strategic" but it is defensible. The Ukrainians have dug in here because it is a good place to chew up Russians. Why the Russians are attacking where they are at the biggest disadvantage? That is just them being stupid.

@christopherglover5945

Жыл бұрын

The salt caverns also figure prominently in Russian culture. Russian crooners would do special concerts underground for the special acoustics.

@jimuren2388

Жыл бұрын

"Russians being stupid" I'd guess you have a 50% chance of being correct. Probably in another 3 to 6 months we'll know who is stupid?

@calholli

Жыл бұрын

It's not really about the connection there, but rather the entire route that passes through it. Bakhmut clearly has the straightest run of railroad passing directly through it, that will be a good shipping line from up north, to get down to Crimea. Without it, they will have to go quite a bit further south and east, into a much more congested area.

@vasia_molokozavod_khtz

Жыл бұрын

Russia has not changed its military tactics since the Second World War. The main tactics of the Russians is a frontal attack, and throwing the corpses of soldiers into the fortified positions of the enemy

@shredgardener9231

Жыл бұрын

@@christopherglover5945 lol that's whack! but we're talkin' 'bout russians here..so might be right.

our support means a lot to them, hopefully things will improve again

thank you for your accurate details. you are no just infantrymen as we say: every infantrymen carries marshal's mace in theirs backpack

Great videos as always! Cheers!

@Taskandpurpose

Жыл бұрын

Thanks for watching brother !

@gabrielcanejo187

Жыл бұрын

@@Taskandpurpose Task, Great video like always, i wanted to show you a video that if you haven't seen it already goes a long way to explain why the Russian military are so focused on Keep attacking places like Bakhmut and why they attack the way they do, It actually helps understand a LOT when it comes to the Russian Military and their peformance in this war, Really recommend watch it: kzread.info/dash/bejne/eK5pm6mQlbevmc4.html

I feel like it's more about getting access to, or preventing the use of as much of Yuzivska gas field as possible. At least the areas suitable for fracking. It's what started problems in the region. Would explain why UA does not want to give ground there.

ISW currently operates as a nonprofit organization, supported in part by contributions from defense contractors including General Dynamics, DynCorp, and previously, Raytheon

Really has a “push through the Ardennes and take Antwerp” feel to it.

The Wagner Group is essentially light infantry in a war being fought with combined arms. Ergo, no matter how ruthless they are-they cannot change the equation.

@ShadowKari

Жыл бұрын

@@r200ti cope

@123dmytro123

Жыл бұрын

@@r200ti Russia has only taken losses for months now, on what reason you think they will take this lol. Realisticly best position Russia was in this war was when they had Kyiv surrounded, after that they were only loosing once Ukraine got armed by west.

@stephenhill545

Жыл бұрын

@@r200ti hope dies last.

@brentsutherland6385

Жыл бұрын

@@r200ti No equipment left?, the Russians keep giving equipment away.

@TheVino3

Жыл бұрын

@@r200ti huge cope lol

The Wagner Group recruiting from prisons reminds me of the SS Strafbataillon's, SS penal Battalions of WWII, whose war crimes were like a horror show, I feel really bad for any civilians in the areas where they are stationed and any Ukrainian Troops they capture.

@thomaslacornette1282

Жыл бұрын

Don't worry there no more civilians there.

@rustyshackleford3053

Жыл бұрын

Dude it's literally a Russian Dirlewanger Brigade.

@prfwrx2497

Жыл бұрын

@@thomaslacornette1282 and why would that be? Oh yeah, Ruscists killed them.

@Bimon1234567

Жыл бұрын

Well, Stalin had his own Shtrafbats, so the concept is not really new to the Russians.

@theodoreloring9166

Жыл бұрын

Get educated the UKRAINIANs are the nazis

Accountant here. We work with a staffing agency that is a lot smaller than they have us believe. The way we know - Their weekly invoices to us are 20 digits apart meaning they only have about 20 active clients. The number sequencing thing at 10:30 kind of made me laugh.

what i see it is aligned with siversk and severodonetsk acessing kramatorsk so it can be important for strategic reasons

I remember seeing something about Donetsk Oblast (near Bakhmut) having one of the biggest oil fields found in Europe in 100 years but until recently untappable; economically make it a very big thorn in Putin's rib and geopolitically making him a wet noodle. He hold on EU (even with starting the war) is strong until Ukraine is able to tap those oil fields.

@sancte3982

Жыл бұрын

It goes alot deeper than that, i think the whole invasion of ukraine is to get to their oil depots, like how they already started tapping into the oil in crimea, and also how their own depots will run out of oil within the next 100 years

@neatop6281

Жыл бұрын

Yeah, there are oil fields in those regions but it`s absolutly dumb idea to rush for them anihilating all your capable troops in sensless attacks. Even if Ukraine loose this city it will just recapture it back in no time just like it did in Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts. russians act like zombies or orcs from Mordor at this point

Putin knows that the alien base that would allow him to take over the world is headquartered in Bakmut.

@JayJay-dp8ky

Жыл бұрын

It's not a base, its a buried stargate.

@timhorton698

Жыл бұрын

True there are a lot of flying pyramids there.

@HubertofLiege

Жыл бұрын

@@timhorton698 hah we’ve solve the mystery of the concrete dragon teeth. They’re part of the “aliens”!

@timhorton698

Жыл бұрын

@@HubertofLiege I forgot about the dragons teeth! Thanks for the reminder!🙂

@timhorton698

Жыл бұрын

Australia is sending one kangaroo and Canada is sending a polar bear to bolster the defence of bakmut

Wasn’t Wagner reduced to recruiting prisoners to fill out its ranks? I had understood Wagner wasn’t what it was.

@lmao.3661

Жыл бұрын

Yes.

Sloviansk was within Russian artillery range when they had Lyman, BUT due to terrain features it was pretty much impossible to conduct a ground assault on Sloviansk from Lyman. A ground assault on Kramatorsk from Bakhmut would still be very difficult, but not impossible.

I don't think the comparison between Dnipro which is in Kherson and Bahmutka which is in Bakhmut is valid. Dnipro is about 1 km wide there, and building a pontoon bridge over it presents a significant challenge. Bakmutka is a small river that is at most 30-60 meters wide and something like 3 meters deep. Yes, it still a natural barrier and a bottleneck but not to the extent Dnipro was.

@Taskandpurpose

Жыл бұрын

thats a great point! key difference there

@volodymyrdrobot9454

Жыл бұрын

Also, I have a suspicion that current fighting for Bakhmut now has 3 reasons: 1. It is a continuation of the fight that made sense back in summer when capturing Bakhmut opened possibility of advancing to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The latter is a key industrial city with significant military production. 2. Capturing Bakhmut lets putin to somehow salvage his face in front for russian people who demand victories. 3. (This one is related to 1) This is mostly an internal russian political thing. Many people from the russian power elite are afraid of prigozhin's rise to prominence. The guy is a criminal who actually served a term in prison. Plus, the military folks are not happy with his latest remarks. That is why he and his mercenaries are left in that slow grinding battle for Bakhmut that today does not have any strategic significance. They just want him to fail. P.S. Kherson was almost impossible to defend when both bridges linking the left bank to the right bank of Dnipro were destroyed. Resupplying the troops on the right bank with ferries and pontoon bridges became very difficult. That is why they withdrawn their troops. I don't think reinforcing them over there with personnel would make too much difference. I am not a military guy though and may be mistaken. I saw Dnipro though and have been to and around Kramatorsk multiple times. :)

Throwing more into Kherson to fortify it is exactly what Ukraine would've wanted them to do. The position became untenable once the bridge came in range of HIMARS, because they just can't adequately reinforce and resupply it, and they run the great risk of suddenly getting cut off entirely and getting encircled with their backs to the river. It's not like Stalingrad, where they could send stuff across the river at night without much risk of interception; they didn't have the infrastructure in place to do that already because it isn't their territory, they don't have a huge amount of places to launch stuff into the river elsewhere because it's not their river, and night fighting capabilities have improved greatly since WW2.

We will see

Love the level 1 warrior handbook.

Like the new look. Informative review of the situation. I had been hearing about the Wagner Group assault for sometime. Sacrificing soldiers for advancement within the Kremlin is SOP. But the Ukrainian defense makes more sense now. Keep up the excellent work!

Probably just my lack of Military experience but to me it sounds like, on the Russian side, Bakhmut is the last offense before the winter really sets in, something they can call a win, boost morale if they can do that still, and have a place to shore up during the colder months of the year instead of sitting in some field somewhere freezing themselves into early graves, and after the Winter months, it can be used as a staging area or a FOB for further pushes back towards inner-Ukraine. As for the Ukrainian side of things, Bakhmut could obviously be a staging area or a forward spot for pushes into the Donetsk region, so obviously why they'd want to keep it and down-play it strategic importance so as to not lose control of it. That's just my assessment, but I am just a civ

@chinabluewho

Жыл бұрын

Would be humiliating for Russia to withdraw, would be a clear signal to all of Russia that the war is lost, plus the Wagener group is as far as I know isn't on the front line, the line as far as I can tell at that place is... Frontline : Prison people, draft dodgers, political enemies ,mentally unfit, physically unfit and that waiter who got Putins order wrong last week at Lyubov Pirogova. Secondary line : Untrained conscripted befuddled raw recruits (fresh meat) , "BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD AND MEAT FOR THE MEAT GRINDER !!" as Putin would say. Third line : Regular Russian troops , trained and competent except for thier leadership. Fourth line : Wagner group , ready and willing to shoot anyone it sees trying to flee and while pounding its chest about how great they are. Fifth line : Chechen forces, really they are just there so they can (frighten the Ukrainians with torture/execution if they win) keep an eye on them "keep your friends close and your enemies closer" as a former KGB officer once said.

@williampagonis8124

Жыл бұрын

Ukraine has already stated they will continue offensive operations in the winter

I did not understand about "pressuring with artillery" from Bakhmut ? So they had no possibility to do it from like Lyman region ?

Request. HESCO barrier. Rare civilian system ( for flood control ) seeing front line duty. Would make a great make now show later when there is a news drought.

The soledar salt mine looks like a good warm winter bunker from it's wiki. At a depth of 288 meters it will be warm and safe from shelling. Could even be safe from nukes. Looks legit.

Yay, Cappy correctly pronounced "Bakhmut" AND "Prigozhin"! 🥳 🎉

It would be nice to see some of th fighting in BAckmut.