Was Adam Dunn’s Defense Really That Bad? | Baseball Bits
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Adam Dunn defense. Oft-maligned, but always talked about. The hulking slugger Adam Dunn had a great career thanks to his power and plate discipline, but his defense was poor, which was exacerbated by the fact he played most of his career in the National League before the universal DH.
This video in particular is about 2009 Adam Dunn Nationals. In 2009, Adam Dunn put up -43 Defensive Runs Saved, the fielding metric powered by Sports Info Solutions. It's older than other fielding metrics from Statcast like Outs Above Average and its run equivalent, Fielding Run Value. Because of those -43 DRS, 2009 Adam Dunn ended up with a negative WAR aka Wins Above Replacement.
In this episode of Baseball Bits, a Foolish Baseball production, I conduct a film study using the ol' eye test to determine whether those -43 Defensive Runs Saved are even possible in modern MLB. Sure, he wasn't exactly known for his glove during his days with the Adam Dunn Reds, but -43 is impossible, right? You'll have to watch to find out.
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Defensive Runs Saved FAQ: www.fieldingbible.com/faq
Secret Base on Adam Dunn: • Adam Dunn had the weir...
Soundtrack from Maxo:
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maxoisnuts.bandcamp.com/
Пікірлер: 641
If you want to see all the plays and their grades, I've put together a compilation here: kzread.info/dash/bejne/hWZ1xrGJYdefhps.html
Oh yess i aint working for another 20 minutes
@matthew01234
Ай бұрын
I already called in sick as soon as this posted. I'm going to savor it all day long.
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
work can wait
@matthew01234
Ай бұрын
@@FoolishBaseball My wife just went into labor and I told her to stop bothering me with less important things.
@HufflepuffBaseball42313
Ай бұрын
@@matthew01234name your kid Bailey
@JaredGoofball
Ай бұрын
@@FoolishBaseballobviously
I remember once you said you wouldn’t make a video about Dunn if it was just about “haha three true outcomes”. This topic is definitely more unique.
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
thanks! yeah Secret Base definitely covered the three true outcomes
@alextrivunovic644
Ай бұрын
@@FoolishBaseball you would have done it better.
@benkelly7499
Ай бұрын
@@alextrivunovic644no one does Jon Bois better, no offense Foolish
@alextrivunovic644
Ай бұрын
@@benkelly7499 Bailey is Jon Bois biological father.
@IBangedUrMom69420
Ай бұрын
@@benkelly7499Jon is a better storyteller but he’s more of a well-rounded sports guy. Bailey probably could’ve given a more in-depth look since he’s more knowledgeable about baseball than Jon.
My heart is still racing after Bailey whipped out his sword as a threat.
@lucasbell4831
Ай бұрын
I know, I was pretty aroused too
@Toast2005
Ай бұрын
I do that to women a lot. They usually look in disgust and ask why it's so small and why it bends upwards
@chucklebutt4470
Ай бұрын
I'm glad I read this comment before watching! 😌
@madmartian2
2 күн бұрын
said every person who's made it to a 2nd date with Bailey.
Weird thing about DRS is that poor defensive players on bad pitching teams will almost by-definition be worse than poor defensive players on good pitching teams. A ball hit towards Adam Dunn is worth negative DRS on average, but because Adam Dunn was on a last-place team the balls hit towards him had more men on base and fewer outs than if he was on a first-place pitching-dominant team. So odd to think that in a sport where offensive value is so minutely calculated independent of other players on the team that defensive value is SO dependent on the kinds of situations your pitcher puts you in.
@L34VITT
Ай бұрын
That's a really great point and something I've never thought about when they calculate DWAR 🤔
@alextan7130
Ай бұрын
When you think about it, its not just pitching where this is the case. Anecdotally I would think the caliber of the other defensive players on your team would attribute to an increased incidence of higher leverage defensive settings and therefore more opportunities for a below average defender to accumulate -rs.
@vojtechnovacek7776
Ай бұрын
Yes, but conversly a great defender would be more valuable on a team with bad pitching. And that also reflects the reality so I personally am not against that.
@dutchy_mkv5008
Ай бұрын
Came here looking for this comment. Dunn’s DRS was exaggerated because of severity of his errors being higher than on better teams. I’m curious how his UZR and other context neutral defense metrics compared for that year in question.
@brennanroy7842
Ай бұрын
His UZR in that season was -36, so less than a win off the DRS calculatation. That put him above replacement on Fangraphs.@@dutchy_mkv5008
I'll never forget that a baseball writer once projected Adam Dunn to be a better rounded, longer lasting player than Albert Pujols after their debut seasons.
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
Pujols turned out to be one of the best defensive 1B ever
@pranavarora9976
Ай бұрын
@@FoolishBaseballYep, him and Keith Hernandez are basically 1A 1B for the position
@therealmcromano319
Ай бұрын
They’re both pretty well rounded…well if you only look at their bodies
@decker528
Ай бұрын
@@FoolishBaseballwas he really that good? I knew from watching him he was good, but not that good. It's infuriating to me how first basemen seem to be almost impossible to have a positive dwar from what I've seen
@antonioreconquistador
Ай бұрын
@@therealmcromano319 nice pfp cool adam
"The best offensive season in MLB history below replacement level" Holy fk
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
By a lot too
@Verlisify
Ай бұрын
@@FoolishBaseball Stats are cool
@Brah42
Ай бұрын
Dante Bichette?
@panner11
Ай бұрын
@@Brah42Dante grades poorly in adjusted stats because of Coors and the overall high run scoring environment in his era. That negative war season was only 102 ops+ despite a nice slash line.
@csnide6702
Ай бұрын
WAR is a STUPID stat.... means NOTHING
Bailey I genuinely think that these videos are the best sport based videos on the entirety of KZread. Thanks for making baseball a little bit more enjoyable.
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
Thanks!
@substantialseductive476
Ай бұрын
Also your videos inspired my username
Adam Dunn was the perfect DH who was cursed to play his entire career in the NL when pitchers still had to hit
@chip2854
Ай бұрын
I don’t get why AL teams wouldn’t sign him to DH. Seems perfect to me.
@garrettweber6225
Ай бұрын
@@chip2854ask the white Sox about that…
@12-stringchords
Ай бұрын
He was on the White Sox a few years.
@GizmoBeach
Ай бұрын
@@garrettweber6225 He was just dandy for Washington, but after that emergency appendectomy he wasn’t the same (BA-wise) while going to a different league and starting off in an injury-induced slump didn’t help at all. But compared to Joey Gallo (great OF, though) Dunn was Stan Musial.
“Adam Dunn is the true three true outcomes player” - Jon Bois
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
And yet, all I'm here to talk about is anything but the three true outcomes (balls in play)
@matthew01234
Ай бұрын
He was the first player I viewed that way. Adam Dunn was the first hitter who made me realize that batting average really wasn't that important. At one point he even hit leadoff. Back then it was considered unconscionable to bat a high strikeout, low batting average power hitter leadoff. They did it because he got on base a ton. That's when I started figuring out OBP was more important than batting average and OPS was more important than either of them.
@andrewhawkins6754
Ай бұрын
@@matthew01234 If all you do as a hitter is strike out 4 times and hit a home run the 5th at bat, you have an OPS of 1000 and a new season home run record. Probably an MVP award, too. All with a .200 batting average.
@philly_sports1558
Ай бұрын
Kyle Schwarber: “Buddy you ain’t seen nothin yet”
@matthew01234
Ай бұрын
@@andrewhawkins6754 Oh you would easily win the MVP and it would be unanimous. That wouldn't just be a new home run record. It would more than double the current home run record. That wouldn't just be an MVP year. It would arguably be the best season in baseball history. At the very least you would be guaranteeing your team would never get shutout at all for the entire season. And that's assuming you played with the worst offense in MLB history where no one else on the team ever scored or drove in a run all season long. Assuming your teammates provided any offensive support at all you would probably shatter the RBI record as well. When you hit 162 home runs a season a lot of them aren't just gonna be solo shots.
S tier foolish baseball. Fun premise and Adam Dunn footage is entertaining to watch
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
glad you enjoyed!
I don’t know .. I feel like Foolish actively leveled up in front of our eyes with this vid. Deeply analytical yet action packed with a ton of situation specific footage .. which describes most Foolish vids, but this was next level.
Making Adam Dunn play outfield with the original Citi Field dimensions is one of the crueler things I’ve seen in a baseball game.
I’m getting war flashbacks to 2011 Adam Dunn, 54 OPS+ and still getting some starts at 1B for the White Sox
I've been an official scorer in professional baseball for 25 years and I will +1 to Bailey on how ridiculous the error is as a stat, at least as one used to evaluate a player's defensive ability. Some of it has to do with the way the rule is defined, particularly in that mere mental errors and misjudgments are NOT officially errors. Infielder throws to the wrong base? No error. Outfielder breaks the wrong way to a fly ball? No error. On the other hand, I once charged an error to a player who - under the absolute letter of the law - shouldn't get one. The player was Corey Wimberly, an A's farmhand who was stuck in left on this particular day. High fly ball toward the line, he ran straight to the correct spot, set his feet, then dropped the ball Charlie Brown-style. However, when determining ordinary effort, the rules require the OS to use the standard of an average player at that position for that level of baseball. Wimberly was one of the fastest players in professional baseball. An average player hoping to snare that ball would have to do so on a full sprint, with the wall and the rolled-up tarp looming in front of him. In other words, that catch would take extraordinary effort for an average left fielder because an average guy isn't fast enough to get there. Wimberly got charged with an E7 because he DID have the speed to get there and thus had his "full range of motion" for making the catch.
Loving this second channel content
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
HEY
@chucklebutt4470
Ай бұрын
this made me look at the channel name, well done lol
Aww that little smile at 12:13 after making the nice play is so adorable ❤ That’s right you are nice with it little man
I love this quote: "It's predicated on the fear of making a mistake, not the courage to make a play." A good defender will balance those out.
Me with Adam Dunn on my strat-o-matic team: Opponent: I roll a 5-11. Me: LF(X)..........another single........
Absolutely loved the video! Always excited to see your new videos pop up in my feed.
This channel is one of two that got me into baseball after losing interest when I was a child. Back then, I was a nats fan and going to ballgames with my dad was where I first learned of Adam Dunn. Seeing this channel, which is responsible for my current obsession, cover Adam Dunn, the creator of many many fond memories in my earliest years, is a real treat. Thanks bailey, and I can't wait to see more second channel uploads like this one!
Always love seeing these. It’s like a baseball treat!
New dimensions and textures of what to watch for during my next MLB viewing session. Fantastic effort. You can never truly overthink what's happening in front of you.
I don't know if it was intentionally edited like this, but there being footage of Luis Castillo after saying "being able to track a fly ball" is so funny to me as a Mets fan.
I like Bailey and the channel so much. Nothing but love for baseball and his insights are super thoughtful. He’s also funny (sometimes).
Celebrate, Don't Denigrate a Player? ✅ Answer a Deeper Question than the Title Asks? ✅ Encourage Deeper Analysis by Generating Curiosity? ✅ Use Stats In an Interesting Way and Show Your Work? ✅ Focus On a Player Who Isn't in the News? ✅ Be a Silly Lil Bailey Baseball Boi and Make Us All Laugh?✅ This was an S tier video.
ANOTHER BANGER , BAILEY. THANK YOU
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
no, thank you
MLB Power Pros Legend, Adam Dunn.
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
never played it
@alexw0310
Ай бұрын
E contact with A power is truly something
Your content always puts a smile on my face. 😁
Thanks for the video Bailey! My birthday is today and this is one of the best presents I could have got
great video as always
This is the earliest I’ve ever been idk what to say. I love you, funny internet baseball man.
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
Thank you, internet baseball commenter.
5:25 is how Castellanos goes season after season without recording an error
Very first thing I thought of when you were explaining how all the numbers work nowadays was - eye test. And literally 10 seconds later , you brought up eye test. Made my day 🍺🍺
What a beautiful day, always a pleasure to get a fresh bits.
Love the vids. Greetings from The Netherlands.
I hate the error stat. I hate how if a pitcher makes an error and the runner scores, it is an unearned run EVEN THO THEY EARNED IT!!! I love you bailey
@chrisbeaudoin9818
Ай бұрын
I just think it's a stupid stat. In every sport players fuck up, but only baseball do they include it as the third most important stat and show it at the end of every inning. Maybe somebody can enlighten me
@ColinGLogan
Ай бұрын
@@chrisbeaudoin9818I believe errors being a major stat comes from the extremely low standard of defence in the very early days of baseball. When teams averaged 5 errors a game it made sense to give them more priority, because they would often decide games, but it's mad that we still do it
@oldfrend
Ай бұрын
also automatically no earned runs if you commit an error with 2 outs.
@jroggs85
Ай бұрын
That... makes sense, though? ERA is a PITCHING stat, not a fielding stat or holistic player performance stat.
I gotta thank you Bailey. Without these videos, I would still be relying on fielding percentage to see who’s the best defender in the league. Phillies broadcasts think Nick Castellanos is an amazing defender because he hasn’t recorded an error since 2022 when we all know that’s not the case. Defense is much harder to measure and you’ve done a great job in getting the more obscure info out there.
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
Glad I could help!
@theclassygoose6384
Ай бұрын
Eye test buddy, if you watch the game you can perfectly tell how good or bad a fielder is. No stats required.
@alexparker3277
Ай бұрын
@@theclassygoose6384 just have to find time to watch 2500 games a year.
@dutchy_mkv5008
Ай бұрын
There was an article in The Athletic last year about how the scorekeepers have been issuing a lot fewer errors in recent years, I wonder why
@theclassygoose6384
Ай бұрын
@@alexparker3277 i never said you need to watch every game, if you know baseball you know how good a fielder is after a couple of games. If you can’t figure it out by then, then you’re not great at the eye test unfortunately.
Baseball Bits always makes me feel better
The delivery for “How come good hitter WAR bad and bad hitter WAR good” might just make it one of my favorite individual lines ever said on baseball bits
I love your videos bro
Is that the Jim Leyland as one of your patreons? incredible video - very fond memories of Dunn from his playing day
Absolutely loved you picking 30 games to look at it! Sample size is large enough
You are by far my favorite baseball youtuber.. informative af and funny af at the same time! Thanks for brightening up my day big dawg
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
thanks!
@jets4687
Ай бұрын
@@FoolishBaseball for sure dude
always love when the second channel gets some love
Adam Dunn is one of my favorite baseball subjects.
Just when I thought my day couldn’t get better. Foolish Baseball comes up clutch.
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
My WPA increases
Great video as always Bailey. This one fascinates me a lot because I worked at Inside Edge for a few years and one part of the job was quantifying defensive play probabilities. I think IE's methods/calculations were different than what BIS does to calculate DRS, but figuring out the catch probabilities was always fascinating to me. Some guys like Dunn make routine plays look difficult and much better fielders can make tough plays look easy. Regardless, figuring out the in-between plays was always the toughest part.
Sitting on the toilet for the next 18 minutes to watch new Foolish
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
I'd say that's an acceptable length of time to be on the toilet. Anything more probably excessive.
A new Baseball Bits from Foolish and a Playin' Watchin' Guts from Jomboy, Jake and Joezack. Can't get any better than that on a Wednesday.
The song playing at the beginning of the level 5 segment was great
“muscle relaxers go brr” -Rod Manfred
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
it's the only way he can tolerate baseball
great video, music is amazing too wtf
Bailey you done did it again
I was waiting for a Schwarber joke, but damn, 2:29 made me cackle 😂
The game over always makes me smile
Seeing a Jon Bois video getting mentioned makes my heart full
So glad you took a different take than Jon what a weird player, Bailey. Love your stuff
Thanks for reminding me how much I hate the universal DH. Now I'm mad all over again.
As a young kid from Cincinnati during Dunn’s tenure for the reds I vividly remember my dad going absolutely ballistic over Dunn doing pretty much anything, meanwhile he was my favorite player
the best part of this video was i got to remember jorge cantú and a sweet ball he hit out to adam dunn because i was at that game lmao. i commented that he seemed to let stuff drop in front of him all the time... at the time!
He should upload more of these second channel videos. They’re fantastic!
What’s good my man! @FoolishBaseball Could u take a look at Carlos Zambrano stats and see if it’s worth a baseball bits.. It’s fascinating his baseball career but on top of that his batting skill! Thanks again as always
You should do one for the elite defender as well.
What about a video about "The Art of Getting Left on Base??"
The pride of New Caney, Texas! My hometown high school's greatest ever athlete.
Adam Dunn And Austin Kearns came up through the local low A Dayton Dragons Inaugural season. Watched their very first professional games. Man being 14 was cool. You knew early on they were going to be good. Love ya Big Donkey 🫏
Dude, wicked sword 😮
I was only gonna have one beer with lunch but Foolish posted so I'll have two
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
why not?
The Rob Manfred calculating DRS was comedy gold
Adam Dunn was the second most impressive batting practice that I’ve ever seen live. I watched him pepper the scoreboard at Shea when he was still a Red.
Love the video Foolish. However on your own calculation of DRS on the Mike trout ground ball you should have found the difference not on "Bases empty, 1 out" and "Bases empty, no outs", but rather on "Bases empty, 1 out" and "A runner on first, no outs", because you are finding the difference between the expected amount of runs the offense scores in the instance that the SS makes the play and in the instance he doesn't make the play: (P(doesn't make the play)-P(makes the play)) * .5= DRS (using this method).This makes the total DRS for that play (not accounting for the Angels horrendous offensive output) (0.908-0.275) * .5= 0.3165.
I love me some Dunner. Made baseball in DC so much fun.
@FoolishBaseball which Maxo song is being used at 2:52? It's always been my favorite, but I haven't been able to track it down on soundcloud.
I'll bring him because it's important people never forget about Raul Ibanez manning the OF. Great guy, good lefty bat, endless snuff films with the glove.
Adam Dunn...one of my favorite players because his offensive contributions were offset by his defensive liabilities. YET...I have always wondered...how did he play so many years and never improve? What is the story there? Was he uncoachable? Did he simply not have the physical abilities? And why did teams put up with it? Did they see his offense as something that allowed them to simply accept his liabilities as a defender? Did they think he would get better? I think it is correct to assume that in an era of universal DH, his career would have looked different--and lasted longer. But even so, would any team keep anyone on a roster with so much defensive liability these days? Perhaps he was a product of his era, but sometimes I wonder what managers and owners are smoking...
Bailey you should do a video on the Chad pitcher eater Mike Tauchman or the "Palatine Pounder"
Adam Dunn was just rocking and AWP with no armor, helmet or nades!! He is just built different
Dude I remember him hitting a homerun against the Cubs almost onto to rooftops in Chicago
That sword convinced me to never question FB.
FINALLY! AN ADAM DUNN BASEBALL BITS! IVE BEEN WAITING FOR THIS SINCE DORKTOWN!
@haydenanderson2121
Ай бұрын
I feel like this is the Quintessential Bailey topic. Someone who’s really amazing at one thing, but bat at others.
I saw the tweet where we asked you to make the video, ty Addison 😭
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
I hadn't yet realized the Adam Dunn defense season was in 2009. If it was in 2008 or before, this video wouldn't be possible.
thoughtful piece as always, Bailey!
around 12:15 i think you should also have looked at the possibility of runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs, where Dunn bodyblocks the ball and comes up in time to prevent the runner from going to 3rd, but cant reasonably make a play at 1st.
The Big Donkey was my first favorite baseball player.
i think adam dunn is the most adam dunn-looking guy to ever live
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
He certainly looks like an Adam Dunn
@raddimusmcchoyber3362
Ай бұрын
First time I ever saw Dunn was on TV in the early 2000s. The commentator referred to him by his full name (Adam Troy Dunn) just as Dunn blew a huge bubble with his gum while staring off into the distance. It was the perfect confluence of person and name, to the point that it stayed with me for 20 years. It was like witnessing a Platonic Form.
Adam Dunn managed to strike fear in the hearts of both his team and the opposing club with his uniquely terrifying offense and defense.
You should do a video on the 4 seasons that have happened with a player recording 30hr and less than 60 rbi. I’ve named that type of season an Earhart
Good upload alert!
@FoolishBaseball
Ай бұрын
Good comment alert!
Thank you for this video! I love Adam Dunn, and his career (and specifically, his 2009 season) has always been my #1 reason for questioning the validity of WAR. I do buy into it for the most part, but I refuse to believe Dunn's defense was so bad his career WAR is only 17.9.
Jack Wilson was an elite shortstop I don't wanna see that slander
Lastings Milledge mentioned 😤
The perfect video to kill some time before my team drafts Caleb Williams
that's crazy about orlando cabrera with -29 , i remember him for his defense and he has 124.9 career dWAR somehow.
11:58 WBC GOAT Shairon Martis sighting 👀
I would've loved to hear about range factor. yadier molina has a below average (for a catcher) Rangefactor/9inn, but he's usually considered one of the best catchers ever. I wonder why that stat is unkind to him
Absolutely amazing video....but my god I've never had to squint harder to watch baseball plays lol. That 240p putting in work
You should make a video simply explaining different baseball advanced stats and metrics!
wake up babe Foolish Baseball just uplo.... oh right, I have no "babe" hence being a Foolish Baseball subscriber...
Jon Bois 🤝 Bailey Putting Adam Dunn in perspective