Volume CURES Variance [How To Overcome Downswings]
Volume cures variance. This is an important piece of information to truly learn and understand if you want to become a successful and winning poker player.
In this poker webinar Jonathan will walk you through everything you need to know about how to deal with downswings and overcome variance.
Poker is a numbers game. If you are playing in a game that you are a winner then you should not be discouraged if you have some losing sessions. Too many of Jonathan’s students have a problem of putting in volume when they are losing which leads to a longer length of downswing.
In poker there is a lot of variance in the short run but on the flip side there is almost no variance in the extreme long run. Different formats of poker have different amounts of variance.
To win at poker you must:
- Find a game that you can beat.
- Play it a lot.
- Keep a proper bankroll.
0:00 - Volume Cures Variance
2:09 - Time Does Not Equal Volume
3:22 - How I Turned $50 Into $350,000!
4:11 - Sit & Go Variance Examples
9:34 - Tournaments Have Massive Variance
11:40 - Poker Tournament Variance Examples
23:22 - Cash Games Are The Key To Consistency
24:10 - Live Cash Game Examples
27:50 - Online Cash Game Examples
30:36 - Increase Your Volume!
34:10 - Increase Your Edge
36:08 - Volume Cures Variance
On this Poker Coaching channel we cover a weekly poker topic to help improve your poker strategy!
In order to take your poker game to the next level it is vitally important you learn all the nuances of the game.
Do you know what ranges of poker hands you should be playing from each position? When should you 3-bet, call or fold? When is the right time to make a hero call or a huge bluff? Do you know how to play preflop, flop, turn & river effectively and how should your poker strategy change depending on the street? What difference does it make if you are playing multi-way vs heads-up?
#pokerstrategy #pokerlesson #volumecuresvariance
Пікірлер: 81
What do you think is YOUR biggest leak? 🧐
@ElJefe0719
Жыл бұрын
Mental game and maintaining volume during downswings
@StevieSparkZ
Жыл бұрын
Getting up late can be a leak, especially if you prefer live and your poker room is farther away from home.
@duncanglen3452
Жыл бұрын
For me, it's different depending on my mindset/situation Too many to list here but I'm working on them coach
@spencergibbons1390
Жыл бұрын
Trying to stay positive and not tilt when going through long downswings
@sawg4607
Жыл бұрын
Trying to scare off villains on the turn with less than 52% equity. Even if I fold on the river, I just wasted a bunch of BBs.
I truly admire your authenticity and transparency Jonathan.
I’ve been playing micro stakes while studying every day for 5 years as a poker premium member following Jonathan’s advice. Started with $45 and now have $1,084! Thanks Jonathan!
@seanwaltrip5235
11 ай бұрын
Half of my winnings are sharing a number of jackpots hit on Betonline while the other half is from play. I started at .05/.10 and now play at .10/.25. I never had to re buy with my $45. Just worked it up from .05/.10. If you play a lot you will inevitably share some Jack pots.
@marksimpson2321
11 ай бұрын
Doing much better than 90% players!
@seanwaltrip5235
11 ай бұрын
I don’t Know about that! Micro stakes are great for applying what you learn at minimal risk! Working my way from .05/.10 to .10/.25 has increased my win rate but it’s up and down for years to get where I’ve got. I try to focus on making plus EV plays and not be results oriented. That’s all we can do and that’s winning poker. I’m retired and would like to start playing live cash games for extra income and for the fun of the game. That’s been my plan from the beginning. 😊
@grim789
4 ай бұрын
Did you go negative at first? What helped you really find your edge anything in particular? And curious what your amount of hands is after about a month of playing. Are you still a member on their discord channel love to talk more with you if you don't mind. Struggling new player trying to find my edge.
@pokerNGold
Ай бұрын
I deposited $100 on New Years eve 2023 to play micros and in the past, about to be 6 months, I’ve cashed out $700 with $174 currently in my account mostly playing $1 - $2 Mtt’s , $1 sngs $1 satellites and occasionally 5nl. I’d like to mention one of my cash outs for $500 came from winning a min. cash in a $100 buy-in tournament that I was able to get in by winning only a $1.50 satellite. I wanted to mention that because it’s not like I’m crushing these games with a ton of volume, I just had a decent run in that tournament. My other $200 cash out was from taking 2nd place in a $5 MTT. I really don’t know what to make of my game as a new player and don’t know what I’m looking to gain from this comment. Obviously I’m not losing but I feel like I should be way more ahead than I am.
I went from a small winner in 6 max cash to a 20% ROI in micro sng. I can confirm sng are still a good way to start building a br, as Jon said! :)
This was the most inspirational video ever!! It's important to see the plan as you bounce up and down those graphs ...
I'm playing full time again and your videos are super helpful and inspiring. Thank you brother.
Thank you for your time and knowledge Jonathan!
Again I have to thank you for your videos, I am getting used to variance but it's a process! To have the right mindset is not always easy, especially after 2 weeks vacation! You help me(and many others) incredibly much!!!
@PokerCoaching
12 күн бұрын
You're welcome! I'm so glad these videos are helping you
i like it. good input man. i have always talked to my son about discipline. its what separates you from everyone else. and its applicable to everything.
Great video once again!
There are many aspects to learn in poker to become a winning player. I personally cover the same material numerous times while playing micro stakes for it to sink in and make the correct plays in real time. For those starting out don’t think about the money as much as focusing on learning and applying the various concepts that are taught and there are many! Winning and making money will come in time. 😊
Turn $ 50 into millions is amazing! So that means you have never been stuck. Not my case at all. I have been stuck thousands, upon starting poker. Cause I was no good. Now I no longer play 1 /3, but 5/10 and higher. And I think my downswings are lesser amounts, and I have less of them. Have studied on pokercoaching in the past, and always watch and appreciate your videos.
@ThePito81
10 ай бұрын
HOW MUCH IS FOR POKERCOACHING
These days it's almost impossible to assume an edge in Online Poker, whereas it's almost certain to have a solid edge in cash games.
@SilencerXLR8
11 ай бұрын
Have you looked at past games played at certain blinds compiled your mistakes, your opponents general tendencies at different stack sizes with a decent raw amount of data?
@jceepoker3256
3 ай бұрын
Meh. Should see these donkeys online too. Doesn’t mean u will win tho. Still got to put in the volume
Thankyou Jonathan!
Hi John really like the videos and find them super educational! Really want an oppinion on a spot I had yesterday either from you or the comment section. I was a bit short stacked lets say 2/5 max is 1000 (Im not from the states so rougly converted) I have 700. UTG opens for 20 and LJ, HJ and cutoff call. I decide to squeeze for 200 with KJo out of the SB. UTG and cutoff call but not too happy about it. So the pot is 650 and flop comes 33Q rainbow. With 500 behind I decide to jam as the small SPR really doens't lend itself to small bet then size up on the turn, also blocking JQ and KQ makes me feel this might be my best bluff in that spot while also having some equity when called. Ik the main mistake is not topping up, but would you say the squeeze against the UTG open was too ambitious, or the bluff on the flop was a mistake. The result was UTG crycalled TT, cutoff folded, i did not improve and got stacked.
It was like this video was sent from the poker Gods lol. Needed this to be really explained feel much better since im a new player with 4k hands after a month and I'm down.
@PokerCoaching
4 ай бұрын
I'm glad it helped you, good luck on your poker journey!
Its hard to embrace variance sometimes oh great one... But your words help alot🙂
@jayvoncrunx8287
16 күн бұрын
Just 5bet all in, KK vs 88 and ofc he gets the 8... And I had doubled up my stack in a cash game, then next fish follows me with a gutshot(I was blocking his straight) and he gets trips vs my 2pair
@jayvoncrunx8287
16 күн бұрын
Turn and river runner runner by the way... Argh hehe
@jayvoncrunx8287
16 күн бұрын
Edit: ofc I was not blocking his straight, that's impossible coz I had 2 pairs on the flop... But I was good to ventilate anyways😂
What is your advice on playing several tournaments at the same time? Which platform do you use to play more than one tournament at once?
You say keep a proper bank roll find a game you can beat and play it alot. But I have one question how you find a game you can beat? you should make a video on that thanks and thumbs up
im gonna watch this video on repeat everyday while playing online tourneys to make sure i get my volume in. my goal is to play 750 games a month. its hard cause im on a $1,200 downswing. playing avg buy in of $13 my roi is 48% after 1780 games. but recently keep losing
@PokerCoaching
Ай бұрын
I'm glad you found the video helpful! GL!
How do you calculate ROI while you are still on the way to the long run?
Maybe online, but live, it's hard when you play 2 to 5 a month tournaments, cash I can see playing every day if needed. But if it's the variance that's gonna keep me from making anything and getting a big score, than I'm screwed.
How many hands do I need to play in order to know if I am a winning player?
what is extreme long run? 100 million hands? there's a high stakes player who played 1 million hands and his ev line was: +1 million up and was running -1 million down... in poker forums they even say 250k hands is considered long run...
@marksimpson2321
11 ай бұрын
250k isn't long term really statisti.vast majority of players a. Don't understand variance b have bucked it cos most will go bust when they get some bad variance
@StevieSparkZ
11 ай бұрын
I don't think 250k is long term, especially in online poker. With online, I played 100k hands within ~3 months playing an average of 4 times a week with 4 tables.
What was the website you used for those variance charts again?
I mean how can he be the One if he's DEAD! - the solo and build up to that line was insane..
I've been playing online tournaments seriously for 3 months, and have a negative ROI. At what point do I call myself a bad poker player instead of having bad variance?
@marksimpson2321
11 ай бұрын
Difficult to know. Watch earlier JL videos to get a better idea.
Cant win a flip to save my life atm. Always ahead, always end up behind. Its really starting to take its toll.
if I knew for certain I was a winning player I would put up with ANY VARIANCE whatsoever! I've been studying a ton at pokercoaching but it's depressing feeling like a loser :( I have a math degree and understand how variance works, I think it's all cool but I'm someone who doubts myself at everything
Volume may cure variance but when you have a downswing and you have been constantly getting your money in ahead and by ahead I mean 4-1 favourite 9-1 favourite in big pots and lose it really pisses you off, you expect to lose sometimes when you are ahead but when it keeps happening in all the big pots it is so frustrating. I used to spend between 10-40 hours playing at my local casino most weeks making $50k+ every year (it wasn’t my only income) for 8 years playing 2-5, 5-5 and experienced variance but in 2019 I had losing session after losing session and after one sick beat too many I haven’t played at the casino since, I just got pissed off and haven’t been back.
@Karbofitchef
Жыл бұрын
Sorry to hear that but this is poker. I have been there, maybe not in as serious downswing as you, but I also play 5 times a week in casino and have been having downswing for about 3 weeks now. It is tought and it will get every poker player at some point. I truly recommend Jared's Tendler book The mental game of poker, it helped a lot. Just need to keep playing ton and everything will go back to normal.
How do you play 100 sit n goes in 1 day?
@capnmorgandarts
Жыл бұрын
By playing more than one at a time.
@Beast777Mode
Жыл бұрын
it's tough depending on what type of sitngo you play. If you play hyper turbos it's not that hard if you can play like 6 tables at a time, works out to around 20 an hour
💯💯💯
*Results not typical.
John do you think you can beat Phil ivey in a heads up game? Or Tom Dwan?
@Gabriel-jg5sr
Жыл бұрын
I would be interested to see him get into a big cash game with them at some point. Because I know he studies the most out of any of them. The other two play way more than they study and Jonathan studies way more than he plays. Would be interesting indeed!
@tcandrewtam228
Жыл бұрын
With variance, you can beat any player in a given day. Considering 1 game is such a small sample size, so the obvious answer is yes.
@marksimpson2321
11 ай бұрын
@@Gabriel-jg5sri don't think he woul expect to beat Ivy and I'm sure he'd not expect to beat Dwan over more than 25k hands. JL is v good and he wouldn't play them as he has almost no edge
@royalflush8173
11 ай бұрын
@marksimpson2321 I would think JL is a better GTO PLAYER, and would win that way.
0:11 Swoon!
Jonathan I love your content and genuinely appreciate what you do however I do think just putting in volume won't get you there anymore as it did ten years ago. You need good volume but also a good percentage of study for example reading, hand reviews and using solvers to supplement that. That's where your edge is coming from now then once you can apply it consistently put in the volume. Games are just tougher and fewer players over fold now.
@markcummings3146
11 ай бұрын
By the way I grind sngs and make 8% ROI over 100k sample, this year I've started mixing in some MTTs.
I don't live in a state where online poker is legal so there is no starting out with small sit and goes at $50 there's only one, two games and above at casinos near me not helpful to people who don't have online gaming available to them! And with my current situation I have no means of financial gain especially with everything getting more f****** expensive
@seanwaltrip5235
11 ай бұрын
Betonline. This is where so play online to practice what I’ve learned from PokerCoaching with Jonathan Little.
Cash games u need alot of waiting and u gotta be discpline
10bb an hour in cash is very doable.
How can everyone win in the long run? There has to be losers in the game, and that's 95% of the players.
The player with 50% ROI isn't down most of the time after a month/20 tournaments. The graphs showing are only examples. pretty sure they are not representing frequency.
@pokertroll320
Жыл бұрын
I believe these are from simulations, so while “examples” they’re outcomes that actually occurred in 20 simulations.
Variance doesn't include bet sizes, thus it's impossible to cure variance with volume. Flip a coin a million times it doesn't matter if every flip has a fluctuating wager. This is why poker is a game based on luck. 90% luck on every hand, in every game, for every lifetime or poker career>.< Anyone saying otherwise, is selling you a gimmick.
@marksimpson2321
2 ай бұрын
Stupid comment. There is no edge in coun flipping. There are edges in poker.
Volume does cure variance. Don’t forget that there are outliers.
30 buy ins swing in cash games is just normal