I knew my 5 year downswing was just variance, thanks Pete

Been a full time pro for 12 years. The biggest thing I’ve learned is that variance is way crazier than you think.

One thing to add, the variance calculator assumes u play that winrate the whole time and does not factor in mental game or time of day etc, theres no way a 3-4bb/100 winner is playing +3bb poker when they are on a 20bi downer u can always assume the variance calculator is being generous

Can you really say Poker is a game of skill? This makes me wonder how many of the so called "pros" are just running extremly good. And we are talking about numbers in online cash games. You can not play 200k hands live in a year. So basically becoming a live poker pro is absolutely nonsense.

It makes you sometimes question how big the luck factor really is and whether it's even worth putting in that much time into studying and playing...

Bad players use variance as an excuse to hide behind. Good players take control of it by putting in volume and improving to a higher winrate where the downswings are dampened

Yep, not to mention all these possibilities exist even if you have 100+ buy ins, never check your results, and your life doesn't interfere with your roll in any way. There are so many variables which make things worse, like fear or discouragement creeping in during downswings affecting your routine and the quality of your play.

And this my friends, is the reason why poker is not a real sport

So i once dropped a disparaging comment on this channel regarding Jordan P. I still can't stand him. That being said, i don't want to just publish that and never contribute anything else. Reason being, this Pete guy makes a lot of sense in his poker analysis and i find him easy on the ears. If i was in the market for an irl coach, i seriously wouldn't hesitate to give Carrot Corner a go. I'm 100% confident that your courses represent good value for money. Thanks for all the free presentations, Pete. Your help has really moved my game from a feelsy, break even/small win game to a more profitable, more data driven, more thoughtful and deliberate paradigm.

17:40

Great information! The truth of online poker is a hard pill to swallow.

The interesting thing to me about all of this is that variance is really the pro's greatest ally. Without variance, people's true performance would be apparent straight away. Variance helps hide players' true performance, and helps them convince themselves that they're just 'running bad'. Combine that with the fact that some positive memories are more salient (you remember the huge pots you won more than the slightly losing sessions) and fish keep coming back. You need the fish, since it is a zero sum game.

You are the most underrated poker coach ever! For real, please keep doing these videos.

Great video Pete - what I needed to hear too given I'm going through a rough patch atm

Great video. I used to play with this tool very often, especially during downswings to see what's possible. Very helpful. Most players underestimate variance and they believe they're too good or too bad.

Same issue in financial trading, it basically put me of pursuing it as a career when I did my masters in finance. So many "ballers" think they are the shit in picking stocks having the smallest sample size. Imagine you can go through an entire career into retirement and not really know if you are a good stock picker or not.

Your video make my day better bro i had a bad session and after watching this i understand variance better

Awesome video. Showing this to all my friends who don't play poker

Probably one of the most important videos I've ever seen about poker.