I chat here about the latest science on tipping points in the dynamic fluid systems of the Earth, namely the ocean circulation patterns and the atmospheric circulation patterns. The most recent key review document containing this knowledge summary is “Global Tipping Points 2023”: global-tipping-points.org/ The key ocean current systems that are presently showing early warning signs of rapid approach to tipping points include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Subpolar Gyre (SPG) and the Antarctic Southern Circulation systems. There is a huge risk that as the slowdown and even stoppage of some of these global ocean circulation systems proceeds, the monsoonal rainfall in the tropics from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will all change, as the ITCZ would shift southward, so the existing monsoonal patterns would all shift, with the existing monsoonal regions getting much drier as the rainfall falls in regions further to the south. Clearly, this would impact millions to hundreds of millions to even billions of people in these regions. Also, changes to the atmospheric circulation are examined, with the conclusion (in the review paper) essentially being that the shifts are not likely to exhibit tipping behaviour (don’t think I agree). Also, effects on the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) to a more “permanent El Niño state) are discussed. Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

@StabilisingGlobalTemperature

Ай бұрын

Another problem potential relating to the cutting of sulphur from ship fuel that I have realised: with less sulphur entering the ocean, there would presumably be be a reduction in DMS (dimethyl sulphide) produced by algae and phytoplankton? And DMS is a very powerful feedback promoting cooling. If algae and phytoplankton increasingly shut down due to shoratge of sulphur, that is potentially up to 45% of the global sink of CO2 gone. Do we urgently need to put sulphur back into ship fuel?

@StabilisingGlobalTemperature

Ай бұрын

Are there any measureable metrics giving an early warning of algae and phytoplankton shutting down? For example, is the oxygen in the oceans surface reducing now relative to previous to the ban on sulphur in ship fuel?

@graemeguy341

Ай бұрын

Thx Paul This is a very useful summary of the global situation...very useful in understanding where the trouble will come from and how it will affect the overall system. I'm starting with the Amazon, then maybe the AMOC/Gulfstream. However before then the heatwaves and extreme weather events will have caused devastating problems for humanity/civilisation. $10 coming your way. Please keep on your reporting here and with climate emergency forum podcast. Thx again

The tipping points are now tipping more points and faster.

@tornadoclips2022

Ай бұрын

Yep

@Deebz270

Ай бұрын

Yep - E X P O N E N T I A L L Y..

@JnMast

Ай бұрын

Self reinforcing feedback loops. 2024, the last of the good old years?

One study has found that when subpolar gyre gets more melting waters, the Golf stream gets stronger and winds toward Greenland. This explains why Europe has had these extreme heat events and even allows to predict them in the wintertime months before the summer heat. Golf stream change also affects the jet stream.

Im glad that you say amoc and not the gulf stream like so many others do, even some scientist say gulf stream.

Thanks for the video. Jim Massa has said that OHC Ocean Heat Content tipping point was passed in the early 1990s. Most of these models and the EEI don't take OHC into account, so I tend to put less confidence in those models.

@user-qg5dp4tl8c

Ай бұрын

I concur.

Great video thank you

Despite the horror, this has been a quite comforting channel, often fall asleep replaying episodes. How about a 24/7 ‘the end has started’ stream of all the episodes in n a loop?

Hello Pr Beckwith. Can you make a short ( 15 min ) and concise video on the probable evolution of the climate including oil reserve ( 20 years left in today consumption) Thank you

More excellent PDF's to collect and absorb. Many thanks PB. 💚 And all brought to you - as always - in GLORIOUS P A N A V I S I O N.

Sorry Paul, I don’t have time to worry about extreme climatic changes when WW3 is starting … (sarcasm). Love your video updates on the latest climate news.

@Deebz270

Ай бұрын

It is unlikely that there will be a WW3... Even though political circumstances globally are dire ... Biospheric shift of homeostasis is likely to extirpate all extant organism - certainly surface and pelagic species - in short order. AGW and other 'vectors of doom' are likely to make a global - nuclear - confrontation very awkward to implement anyway.

@scottyscotty5862

Ай бұрын

Don't look this way look that way 😂

I was just thinkin about the reefs

MCB Marine Cloud Brightening seems to be a good way to reverse AMOC tipping

@DrSmooth2000

Ай бұрын

Wouldn't deal with the salinity issue. Suppose can't hurt. Need to be near global to cool whole course of AMOC? It can fail in points not the North Atlantic. Never read if local sections might evolve or just collapse

Love your house 👍😊

@Deebz270

Ай бұрын

Love the copper kettle....

At 3:13 it was explained that the Sahara region at various times in the past had experienced what is formally referred to as "pluvial" (noticeably rainier) phases. The same is true for the Arabian Peninsula. There were times during the past half million years that the southern Arabian Peninsula had a few lakes that were roughly 10 kilometers across. Such a pluvial phase seems to be about to happen again in the Arabian Peninsula. The surrounding ocean is trending warmer, resulting in times of the year with greater absolute humidity, meaning that a low pressure system drifting across the Arabian Peninsula between the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf have more atmospheric water that can become rain. Also, the recent northward drift of the ITCZ during the last century or so increases the chance of a seasonal monsoonal low intermittently setting up in or near the Arabian Peninsula, analogous to the seasonal monsoonal lows that with good enough agricultural reliability set up near Jodhpur in northwestern India and near Ledo in northeastern India. One more impetus to a near future pluvial cycle in the Arabian Peninsula is a broadening of the Persian Gulf due to sea level rise, especially in the southwestern shore of the Persian Gulf. For a given set of sea surface temperature and relative humidity and wind speed conditions, the Persian Gulf will evaporate water into the atmosphere in rough proportion to its surface area in square kilometers.

@DrSmooth2000

Ай бұрын

Thanks for elaborating yet another mechanism 🦭 They do need to mentally prepare to not be a desert

@wendydelisse9778

Ай бұрын

@@DrSmooth2000 , you are back! Here I have been less mathematical than I was previously when discussing the overall scheme of Earth's greenhouse effect in the comment section of another KZread channel some months ago (December 2023?), but I still gave what is known as a "scaling approximation" in this KZread channel, the Paul Beckwith channel. One other useful scaling approximation for evaporation rate from a region of sea has to do with windspeed. For a given set of temperature conditions, the rate of evaporation scales approximately in proportion to windspeed. Evaporation also scales approximately in proportion to seawater vapor pressure at the temperature of the sea surface. The temperature trend of the Persian Gulf is upward, so in future decades, faster evaporation rates can be expected in the Persian Gulf. The surrounding hilly and mountainous terrain will tend to squeeze out the additional moisture added by the Persian Gulf to the atmosphere, so higher average annual rainfall can be expected near the Persian Gulf in future decades.

@DrSmooth2000

Ай бұрын

@@wendydelisse9778 I've been wondering... all signs do seem to bear out that Hadley Cells migration into the European side of Mediterranean. Speculate the low cloud, high heat combination of Sahara today but set over the Med would cause 'pop up' weather events and be sporadic rain. Italy most certainly as a differential between Adriatic and main Sea would precipitate? Or the evaporate would behave some other way? Did I phrase that clearly enough?

@wendydelisse9778

Ай бұрын

The net result to well north of the Mediterranean Sea, right the way north to slightly into the Baltic Sea coastal states of Germany, would be a lot of year to year variability. Median monthly rainfall, which is an agriculturally substantial metric during growing season months especially where a vast network of reservoirs has not been constructed, would fall percentagewise to well below average monthly rainfall in many parts of Europe north of the Mediterranean Sea. An especially wet month has a noticeable effect on the average for that month, but little effect on the median for that month, if in most years during a particular month, July for example, there is little to no rainfall. Unirrigated grain agriculture during or near the Summer often becomes economically unviable if in three consecutive months there is little rainfall. Forest areas also become especially prone to wildfire in such situations as well. The long term result is likely to be much larger regions of botanical wasteland north of the Mediterranean Sea in Europe, with heavy rain events being able to therefore wash away large amounts of soil, eventually leaving mostly sand and pebbles and rocks behind. Potentially, aeolian (wind driven) erosion could also blow away substantial amounts of topsoil in duststorm events during some years.

Hey Paul, another interesting video. I was thinking it would be fascinating to get your analysis of more specific regions, the predicted climactic and biosphere changes, and a glimpse into how a region is interconnected with other areas or systems. Like what might we expect for, say, London or Lagos? Various regions in Australia? Of course I’m also curious about my home region of the west coast of Canada 😊

478 pages, you must be a speed reader , prof.

Can we detect climate change in the types of cloud cover at various times of year? I have noticed peculiar cloud cover in the winter where I am in South Central BC which is more reminiscent of the temperate coastal regions. It makes sense that the cloud formations would change respectively depending on what is going on in the atmosphere.

Well, the bourgeois nouveau riche in Australia making their filthy lucre from exporting gas and coal will not be able to do their usual ski holidays in future snowless Norway. Poor things. Oh, how my heart goes out to them! Well done, again Paul. We are staging climate action against a 6Gt GHG gas project next week, and as a proxy shareholder activist I always look to refer to these peer reviewed impact studies in as many questions I can ask, to challenge the insanity of further new fossil energy developments.

@user-ym5hx6ky2m

Ай бұрын

Considering the aerosol masking effect, the hyper consuming rich are now my heroes. If you feel the need to toast the planet in a hurry, take down fossil fuel production. Whether you like it or not, we're in a doomed if you do, doomed if you don't situation. And I'm really not concerned about activists taking down carbon production. Activists like to eat, too.

YT is showing that I’m not subscribed but I’ve been subscribed for many months, hmmm.

@PaulHBeckwith

Ай бұрын

Weird

I still have difficulty understanding this concept because of geologic time. I think we crossed tipping points 40 years ago the only difference is that instead of seeing it 500 to 1000 years in the future we’re seeing it in a couple of decades, due to rapid increasing GHG emissions during the intervening 40 plus years. Human nature is also funny, if my statement was true, I’m sure we would feel a whole lot better today even though the outcome would be identical.

We grew up with really bad people's, kids not safe bad people's, were old now & its almost payday for the child hurters of this world to answer for their misdeeds & harm it caused , we grew up with out mom , she got beat up , we went to foster homes , people's should know better, but they dont, y a holy man was born ,a judge for men & us ! 💝👣👑💒💝

@forestdweller5581

Ай бұрын

This channel is about climate science. Go spam your religion elsewhere.

Buddy you are soo late !! we have about 3-5 years left so go home and be with family and stay safe !

Fcking hell

Now is the time for silence. For those who do not know what is really going on will not be among those who will inherit the earth. And those who know are wisest to keep their mouths shut. Because if those who don't know find out who does, they will try to force that knowledge out of them.

@Silks-

Ай бұрын

If we stay quiet there will be no hope for socialism to rise, fascism/totalitarianism will have no opposition and will take control. I don’t see being quiet an option when push comes to shove, you’ll have to pick a side.

@Deebz270

Ай бұрын

Given the manifest 'anthropogenic vectors of doom' in play, on the current trajectory and especially the RAPIDITY of biospheric changes, unprecedented in pretty-much all of Deep Time (Chicxulub excepted).... The Earth's biosphere is shifting - incrementally to human temporality - extremely rapid in geological temporality - towards an alternative state of thermo-equilibrium. The Earth's biosphere exists in one of two states of homeostasis - 'Hot/Greenhouse' or 'Ice-house' - glacial states. Currently we are in an Ice-house state, characterised by the existence of a cryosphere (Ice sheets, continental glaciation, sea-ice, permafrost) but that is changing... No extant organisms are likely to survive in the alternative state. Given those aforementioned 'vectors of doom' in addition, it is quite likely that the current ongoing mass extinction event will be the largest to date; possibly exceeding that of the third MEE - 'The Great Dying' [Permian-Triassic ~250Ma] - whereby around 96% of marine species and 70% terrestrial species became extinct... How much will now perish, given the proliferation of civil nuclear facilities (440+ globally)? If those 440+ reactor facilities end-up releasing vast clouds of ionising radionuclide aerosols to atmosphere, where those aerosols will deplete the extremely thin patches of stratospheric ozone that currently protect the biosphere, which would not have existed without that crucial O3 shield; from the lethal and sterilising effects of solar UV-B/C radiation - effectively sterilising the Earth's terrestrial and marine pelagic ecosystems and decimating the Trophic Order. GAME OVER. Certainly for all large vertebrates - even tardigrades or deinococcus radiodurans - the Earth's hardiest micro organism will perish through lack of nutrients (organic matter) . The only organisms likely to survive are those that have an alternative primary energy source - such as the chemotrophic organisms and the isolated micro-ecosystems they support in the deep subterranean regions, or isolated ecosystems inhabiting the hydro-thermal vent systems situated on the tectonic margins deep in the oceans. At the very least - the current MEE has the potential to revert evolution to pre-Cambrian status - The Proterozoic eon [2.5Ga - 538Ma]. A period characterised by early - prokaryotic (single-celled) organisms. Upshot - NO ONE - HUMAN - WILL 'INHERIT' THE EARTH - EXCEPT PERHAPS THE MEEK AND DIMINUTIVE AFOREMENTIONED ORGANISMS. ===================================================================================================== AnthropoCENTRIC Homo sapiens - '''sapiens''' - Either drunk on hubris, stoned on hopium, or in a coma of denial, or a fug of faith and mostly oblivious to O B L I V I O N. '' I cannot lie to you about your chances (for survival), but... you have my sympathies....'' [SO Ash - USCSS Nostromo].

@lauraarcher1730

Ай бұрын

Seriously?!! It’s exactly the opposite. Those who know the truth are obliged to share it so that people can make an informed choice. People with your attitude are part of the problem. And knowing the truth does NOT guarantee your place in that future.

@user-ym5hx6ky2m

Ай бұрын

Silence is for lambs. Allow me to translate: baaaaaaa.

We can’t read along with you.. please increase the zoom.

- We live in the same climate as it was 5 million years ago - I have an explanation regarding the cause of the climate change and global warming, it is the travel of the universe to the deep past since May 10, 2010. Each day starting May 10, 2010 takes us 1000 years to the past of the universe. Today April 19, 2024 the state of our universe is the same as it was 5 million and 93 thousand years ago. On october 13, 2026 the state of our universe will be at the point 6 million years in the past. On june 04, 2051 the state of our universe will be at the point 15 million years in the past. On june 28, 2092 the state of our universe will be at the point 30 million years in the past. On april 02, 2147 the state of our universe will be at the point 50 million years in the past. The result is that the universe is heading back to the point where it started and today we live in the same climate as it was 5 million years ago. Mohamed BOUHAMIDA.

@lauraarcher1730

Ай бұрын

Human beings are the problem and their drawing away from God and his guidelines.

@user-ym5hx6ky2m

Ай бұрын

?

How can u prove this is legit ? Tipping point but when can we see the effect ? 1000years later ?

@bikesgoodgasbad

Ай бұрын

Even 1000 years would still be insanely fast compared how long similar changes took in geological time. 1000 years is really nothing in terms of human history; we’re going on 300k years of Homo sapiens right now. But no, the estimates are usually by 2050-2100. They often get moved up, as in closer to now.

@solarwind907

Ай бұрын

Man, this guy's been posting videos with proof for years. He's got to have 1000 vids listed on his channel. He gives you links to the papers he reviews, tells you where to find the data. If I were you I'd browse through the vids on his channel. You may benefit from some of the older ones since it sounds like you just found this. If you're looking for data driven science based information on the climate, the biology, geology, physics, the math with all the references you can stand, you've come to the right place.

@Deebz270

Ай бұрын

As indicated in this paper, some tipping-points have already occurred. Others await in the wings (Arctic BOE etc...)... With many more on the horizon. Some tipping points - eg; depletion of the cryosphere - will take hundreds of years, simply due to the mass of ice that would need to thaw... Especially on Antarctica. The same could be argued for other slow/massive dynamics, such as the Global Thermohaline Circulation [MOC/AMOC] . However, even small perturbations in any of these dynamics have significant ramifications for the biosphere. We see this now unfolding with global warming. So the answer is open.... Some feedbacks and tipping points are slow to show effect, others are rapid (like anthropocentric global warming...)

@gottagotag6980

Ай бұрын

@@Deebz270 am I gonna die doc

@DrSmooth2000

Ай бұрын

​@@Deebz270 cryosphere 'depletion' could be millennia for Arctic. Only 8.5 has GL snow free at low latitude in summer by 2250AD Antarctica has to be tens of thousands of years at fastest? Partial glacial retreat during Miocene Climactic Optimum 14mya Last bits succumbed to ice in Pliocene Pleistocene crossover 2+ mil years ago

Hear the words of the professor sendt by Allah. ☝🏿🌊🌡️🌀🌪️🔥⚡💥😲👺💀☠️🤘🏿☪️✝️✡️🛐🤘🏿👺