The Problem Newton Got Wrong

Isaac Newton was right about everything from gravity to the calculus, but he didn’t quite get it right on dice and probability.
The Newton-Pepys Problem represents Isaac Newton’s only documented foray into probability. Samuel Pepys sent him a letter asking whether it would be more likely to roll one six in 6 dice, two sixes in 12 dice, or three sixes in 18 dice. In terms of computing the answer, we’ve got it pretty easy in the 21st century, whether we do it the long way, whether we apply binomial distribution, or just run a Monte Carlo simulation. To us, it’s a relatively basic problem in probability.
But Newton had to work it all out himself, and as he did that, he missed a few things. He just… didn’t get it totally right even though his numbers were accurate. The real Newton-Pepys Problem is deciding how much that even matters, and the answer gives us insight into the complex relationship between math, numbers, and the realities of human thought.
** SOURCES **
“Diary and Correspondence of Samuel Pepys,” pg. 367: www.google.com/books/edition/...
“Isaac Newton as a Probabilist,” Stephen Stigler, Statistical Science 2006, Vol. 21, No. 3, 400-403: projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1...
“John Smith’s Problem,” T. W. Chaundy and J. E. Bullard, The Mathematical Gazette Vol. 44, No. 350 (Dec., 1960), pp. 253-260: www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/3614...
“Newton and Pepys,” Nick Berry / DataGenetics: datagenetics.com/blog/february...
“The Gentle Art of Mathematics,” by Dan Pedoe, pg. 43: www.google.com/books/edition/...
“Probability and Random Processes,” by Venkatarama Krishnan and Kavitha Chandrapg, pg. 33: www.google.com/books/edition/...
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Пікірлер: 3 000

  • @Vsauce2
    @Vsauce24 жыл бұрын

    GRAVTY

  • @njri3369

    @njri3369

    4 жыл бұрын

    FALLS

  • @HeenaPatel253

    @HeenaPatel253

    4 жыл бұрын

    Vsauce2 raycon

  • @MaxMalevich

    @MaxMalevich

    4 жыл бұрын

    IT HAPPENS

  • @abdusamedsaracevic7282

    @abdusamedsaracevic7282

    4 жыл бұрын

    Do you believe in gravity?-Enrico Pucci

  • @roniruokonen9777

    @roniruokonen9777

    4 жыл бұрын

    Can you read this vsauce2?

  • @masculineacorn7712
    @masculineacorn77124 жыл бұрын

    Newton’s been real quiet since this came out 👀

  • @rysus

    @rysus

    4 жыл бұрын

    LMAO

  • @switch64Lol

    @switch64Lol

    4 жыл бұрын

    Hmmmm SUSPICIOUS. What’s going on Newton?!

  • @spyfox260

    @spyfox260

    4 жыл бұрын

    He can’t handle the gravity of this situation.

  • @uncomfortablecat

    @uncomfortablecat

    4 жыл бұрын

    Bruh

  • @FinalEspada1

    @FinalEspada1

    4 жыл бұрын

    Wait until he drops his diss track Get it, 'drops'? Alright ill shut up

  • @zuckening885
    @zuckening8854 жыл бұрын

    The 3 most common words in this video: -Six -Dice -Ye

  • @photelegy

    @photelegy

    4 жыл бұрын

    Why does he use "Ye"? Is this something from old English like "thou" as the informal "you"?

  • @zuckening885

    @zuckening885

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@photelegy yes

  • @ShubhamRaj-mu8ol

    @ShubhamRaj-mu8ol

    4 жыл бұрын

    Right? Wrong!

  • @user-zr7su5qi5d

    @user-zr7su5qi5d

    4 жыл бұрын

    -The-

  • @deoce

    @deoce

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@zuckening885 missed opportunity on saying ye

  • @joblewit5856
    @joblewit58563 жыл бұрын

    Did You Know Kevin’s favorite word is “Right” WRONG!

  • @thatsahumanperson1049

    @thatsahumanperson1049

    3 жыл бұрын

    Just take my freakin’ upvote

  • @ivyvetniss3148

    @ivyvetniss3148

    3 жыл бұрын

    Just take my freaking upvote

  • @ivyvetniss3148

    @ivyvetniss3148

    3 жыл бұрын

    @Egg YESSIR MAKE ZE TREND

  • @xacheron

    @xacheron

    3 жыл бұрын

    just take my freakin' upvote

  • @suleimens

    @suleimens

    3 жыл бұрын

    Just take my freakin upvote

  • @jerekhumphrey6927
    @jerekhumphrey69273 жыл бұрын

    Kevin: "those are the only 2 outcomes. It happens or it doesnt" Schrödinger: "I'm about to end this man's whole career"

  • @user-zr7su5qi5d

    @user-zr7su5qi5d

    3 жыл бұрын

    Schrödinger: It lands on the edge

  • @equation2764

    @equation2764

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@user-zr7su5qi5d It is heads AND tails at the same time until it isn't.

  • @dashyz3293

    @dashyz3293

    3 жыл бұрын

    if it isn't the result of what you want, just quote futurama: "They cheated by measuring the result!"

  • @Noname-67

    @Noname-67

    3 жыл бұрын

    It's land on head tail and edge at the same time

  • @jailee6438

    @jailee6438

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@user-zr7su5qi5d no game no life?

  • @cultsulth
    @cultsulth4 жыл бұрын

    I just clicked for my weekly dose of "Right?... WRONG !"

  • @raihanalam9

    @raihanalam9

    4 жыл бұрын

    LMAO 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

  • @funsouls2889

    @funsouls2889

    4 жыл бұрын

    Or did you?

  • @ruufs2384

    @ruufs2384

    4 жыл бұрын

    WRONG!

  • @cliffordbenenati7373

    @cliffordbenenati7373

    4 жыл бұрын

    *Hello everyone, this is YOUR daily dose of....* *Right? WRONG!*

  • @lewisho8114

    @lewisho8114

    3 жыл бұрын

    Ha!

  • @justinmplayz8809
    @justinmplayz88094 жыл бұрын

    Michael: Newton is right, or is he? Kevin: Newton is right, right? *WRONG!*

  • @shloksigtia9801

    @shloksigtia9801

    3 жыл бұрын

    Very Very Very TRUE !!!

  • @deltro-lgx1655

    @deltro-lgx1655

    3 жыл бұрын

    😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😹😹😹😹😹😹😹😹😹😹😹😹h

  • @revellations7741

    @revellations7741

    2 жыл бұрын

    Left

  • @TheUnderscore_

    @TheUnderscore_

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@revellations7741 omg newton politics!!!1!1!1!!1!!!1

  • @silver6410

    @silver6410

    2 жыл бұрын

    more like duck duck goose

  • @isaacnewton2761
    @isaacnewton27613 жыл бұрын

    I still believe I’m right, young sir. An apple fell on my head.

  • @dudezgamez550

    @dudezgamez550

    3 жыл бұрын

    bruh

  • @merchdraws

    @merchdraws

    3 жыл бұрын

    i dont think you understand the gravity of this

  • @pepsir5746

    @pepsir5746

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@merchdraws oh god, the apocalypse is here

  • @gamingwithraien4639

    @gamingwithraien4639

    3 жыл бұрын

    Guy ℵ

  • @Zeus-7778

    @Zeus-7778

    3 жыл бұрын

    Wassup newton

  • @EnderCrypt
    @EnderCrypt4 жыл бұрын

    well, according to my simulatios (10m sessions) atleast: Wins: (6 dices) 66.51808% Wins: (12 dices) 61.86901% Wins: (18 dices) 59.72854% exactly: Wins: (6 dices) 40.18139% Wins: (12 dices) 29.60475% Wins: (18 dices) 24.51239%

  • @CarlK

    @CarlK

    4 жыл бұрын

    That's what I get, too. Here is my Python: import numpy as np seed = 0 dice_count = 6 repeat = 100*1000 random_state = np.random.RandomState(seed) score = np.zeros((3,2)) for i in range(repeat): six_count = np.zeros((3)) for abc in range(3): for dice_index in range(dice_count): if random_state.randint(1,7)==6: for who in range(abc,3): six_count[who] += 1 #print("6COUNT",i,six_count) for who in range(3): if six_count[who]>=who+1: score[who,1]+=1 if six_count[who]==who+1: score[who,0]+=1 print("score",i,score/(i+1))

  • @jrodartec

    @jrodartec

    3 жыл бұрын

    Hey, you, thank you for investing your time in running these simulations. Was going to do the same here if no one had. Kudus :)

  • @ChristmasTurki

    @ChristmasTurki

    3 жыл бұрын

    Bore off haha

  • @ZweiZombies

    @ZweiZombies

    3 жыл бұрын

    Exactly n sixes or at least n sixes?

  • @lewisho8114

    @lewisho8114

    3 жыл бұрын

    REALLY?

  • @heyyou9137
    @heyyou91374 жыл бұрын

    Michael can go crazy Jake can disappear But only Kevin is here

  • @courtneysmith9807

    @courtneysmith9807

    4 жыл бұрын

    Yeah what are the other guys up to?

  • @myrmatta1

    @myrmatta1

    4 жыл бұрын

    They passed away from the virus

  • @underscoredfrisk

    @underscoredfrisk

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@myrmatta1 not funny didn't laugh

  • @underscoredfrisk

    @underscoredfrisk

    4 жыл бұрын

    bottom text

  • @apalsnerg

    @apalsnerg

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@underscoredfrisk ok

  • @benharvey8094
    @benharvey80943 жыл бұрын

    Kevin: “He may’ve been right about gravity...” Einstein: “Am I a joke to you?”

  • @kyanleong8014

    @kyanleong8014

    3 жыл бұрын

    Nope. It’s gravty, not gravity

  • @MisterHunterWolf

    @MisterHunterWolf

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@kyanleong8014 funny?

  • @Natt_Skapa

    @Natt_Skapa

    2 жыл бұрын

    I was bout to comment same

  • @Lucky10279

    @Lucky10279

    Жыл бұрын

    😆

  • @LincolnDWard

    @LincolnDWard

    3 ай бұрын

    I mean, you can be right that 2+2 is 4 despite not knowing that addition is a property of a vector space. Newton was right about the force relationships that gravity creates; he just didn't know any of the deeper spacetime processes going on in the creation of that force or how those might create complications at extreme distances or speeds.

  • @Lagoon7
    @Lagoon74 жыл бұрын

    When you cheat on the test and have to have to put in a random explanation

  • @harrietjameson
    @harrietjameson4 жыл бұрын

    Me: *Gets everything except for the answer wrong* Isaac: “Happens to everyone”

  • @AngelTheProxy13

    @AngelTheProxy13

    3 жыл бұрын

    Task failed successfully

  • @russetpotatoe2688

    @russetpotatoe2688

    3 жыл бұрын

    Task failed successfully

  • @commie_cat

    @commie_cat

    3 жыл бұрын

    Task failed successfully

  • @thatoneguy9582

    @thatoneguy9582

    3 жыл бұрын

    Task failed successfully

  • @dudezgamez550

    @dudezgamez550

    3 жыл бұрын

    Task failed succssfully

  • @plasmaballin
    @plasmaballin4 жыл бұрын

    "He seems to have been right about gravity." Einstein has joined the chat.

  • @alansmithee419

    @alansmithee419

    4 жыл бұрын

    Well, he *was* right about gravity. He just wasn't right about time or space, which happen to make gravity *appear* to behave differently when high speeds are involved. I might be wrong, but I think that's it.

  • @apalsnerg

    @apalsnerg

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@alansmithee419 Newtonian gravity is an okay approximation for the orbits of planets and for things falling on them, but yes, when near-light speeds are involved, things go wacky, which is what Einstein realised.

  • @adb012

    @adb012

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@apalsnerg @alan smithee .... Eeeemmm.... Not really. Things REALLY behave different in relativistic gravity than in classical gravity, and in reality they move like in relativistic gravity. The shift of the perihelion of Mercury cannot be explained by classical gravity but it is fully accounted for when you add the relativistic effect of being under a strong gravitational field. Even in a much lower and mundane gravity field, the atomic clocks in GPS satellites (in low Earth orbit) need to be corrected due to them being under a slightly weaker gravitational field compared to their counterparts in Earth.

  • @JNCressey

    @JNCressey

    4 жыл бұрын

    close enough for architecture and ballistics

  • @alex_zetsu

    @alex_zetsu

    4 жыл бұрын

    Well, Newton's approximations are right up to 7 decimal places from the Roman Empire all the way to Newton's own time. It's not until people did experiments involving fast stuff that Newton's approximations are different than Einstein's equations. The other way to find a large difference is to go near something much heavier than Earth.

  • @linsetv
    @linsetv3 жыл бұрын

    Kevin: "those are the only 2 outcomes. It happens or it doesnt" Thats why i have a 50/50 chance of winning the lottery.

  • @nickparkyn3561

    @nickparkyn3561

    3 жыл бұрын

    And why you only need to tickets to have a 100% chance of winning

  • @srjoker8896

    @srjoker8896

    3 жыл бұрын

    For God's sake are you serious? The possible outcomes are, it happens, or it doesn't, it doesn't mean that both cases have the same probability :/

  • @pota2s561

    @pota2s561

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@srjoker8896 Well he didn't say which lottery

  • @niro6246

    @niro6246

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@srjoker8896 lmao whoooosh

  • @Leksaboi

    @Leksaboi

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@srjoker8896 woooooooooooooooooosh

  • @michaelmahoney5677
    @michaelmahoney56772 жыл бұрын

    At 6:15 when you say "12 over 1" and write that as a fraction, that's actually not how the formula works. It's actually the combination function, "12 choose 1", or how many ways you can choose 1 object out of twelve, which just happens to also equal 12. It actually has nothing to do with fractions at all, it's just notation to write the numbers on top of each other like that.

  • @shadourow-bathory6965

    @shadourow-bathory6965

    2 жыл бұрын

    Disagreed If 12 choose 2 = (12! / 10!)/2! = 12*11/2 I think that it makes sense to write 12 choose 1 as 12/1 Still, it's horrible to write is in a vulgarisation video, as it's extremly missleading

  • @maxamillion6042

    @maxamillion6042

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@shadourow-bathory6965 yeah, I think writing the fraction without an explanation can be misleading

  • @GoldenLumberjack

    @GoldenLumberjack

    2 жыл бұрын

    confused Unga Bunga

  • @SonsyAnteater78

    @SonsyAnteater78

    2 жыл бұрын

    I have no idea what u guys are talking about but im getting close to it in math im omost able to understand u guys

  • @justinklt
    @justinklt4 жыл бұрын

    This sounds like a ye problem

  • @NStripleseven

    @NStripleseven

    4 жыл бұрын

    The heck is this?

  • @xgford94

    @xgford94

    4 жыл бұрын

    kzread.info/dash/bejne/hYqL2M2TksvNccY.html. No not Ye but thee

  • @friedrichkrone5141

    @friedrichkrone5141

    4 жыл бұрын

    Dude this is the first video I am watching from that guy and im fuming. This "ye" and the way he pronounces it pisses me of so hard.

  • @zelani3370

    @zelani3370

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@xgford94 but why would he say thee tho? He's talking to multiple people so you should be used

  • @AaronTheGerman

    @AaronTheGerman

    4 жыл бұрын

    I really can't tell if he's going a bit or if he's actually trying to revive the word "ye" this aggressively

  • @DiThi
    @DiThi4 жыл бұрын

    "Here's what Newton couldn't quite handle" ... * dies *

  • @madkirk7431

    @madkirk7431

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@hashtagnoname3931 ye thy make joke

  • @SerjBassist

    @SerjBassist

    4 жыл бұрын

    "If he's so smart, how come he's dead?" Homer Simpson

  • @rikothefirst
    @rikothefirst3 жыл бұрын

    "Peeps problem isnt hard to figure out until it is" -Gravty guy

  • @andrewbledsoe131

    @andrewbledsoe131

    2 жыл бұрын

    Gave you a like because I read this as he said it

  • @RandomU5erName
    @RandomU5erName4 жыл бұрын

    Cmon now, he ain't here to defend himself

  • @CanadianBellator

    @CanadianBellator

    4 жыл бұрын

    RandomU5erName ah your profile picture reminds me of the good ol XrpmX13 days

  • @deven9565

    @deven9565

    4 жыл бұрын

    try and fly then

  • @Sike07

    @Sike07

    3 жыл бұрын

    or is he

  • @evandavis5223
    @evandavis52234 жыл бұрын

    The real problem is that there was too much ambiguity in the initial problem.

  • @jonnyp1340

    @jonnyp1340

    4 жыл бұрын

    Isn't it because of people forgetting to use the choose function when calculating binomial probability

  • @BigDBrian

    @BigDBrian

    4 жыл бұрын

    the only ambiguous part is whether it has to match the amount, or can be above. if it has to match, because of the exponential increase in the amount of cases, b and especially c will have really low probability.

  • @every116

    @every116

    3 жыл бұрын

    I calculated it both ways, A still has the best chance of accomplishing their goal whether the goal is to roll at least one 6 or exactly 1 six.

  • @emilhuzjak7053

    @emilhuzjak7053

    3 жыл бұрын

    I hope if someone has more than 1 six, their answer to "Do you have 1 six?" is "Yes". So, 1 six means 1 or more sixes. Can't find ambiguity.

  • @KyttaIsHere
    @KyttaIsHere4 жыл бұрын

    Every time Kevin says "ye" I like to imagine him and Kanye hanging out solving mathematical puzzles

  • @ratoim

    @ratoim

    3 жыл бұрын

    Yo Newton, I'm really happy for you and Imma let you finish, but Leibniz is the best mathematician of all time.

  • @rodrigosaniz3231
    @rodrigosaniz32313 жыл бұрын

    These are the results I obtained using Pascal's Triangle: Getting at least: - One 6 with 6 dice..............66.51020233% - Two 6s with 12 dice.........61.86673737% - Three 6s with 18 dice.......59.73456859% Getting exactly: - One 6 with 6 dice..............40.1877572% - Two 6s with 12 dice.........29.60935686% - Three 6s with 18 dice.......24.5198448%

  • @jrodartec

    @jrodartec

    3 жыл бұрын

    This matches up nicely with the simulations ran by EnderCrypt (a few comments above you) ;)

  • @toz_lmao

    @toz_lmao

    3 жыл бұрын

    Very smart man. But me no understand maths, 2+2 very hard

  • @lordfarquaad2319

    @lordfarquaad2319

    3 жыл бұрын

    I've got the same results using combination, very nice

  • @SHRI-K

    @SHRI-K

    3 жыл бұрын

    Isn't probability of getting exactly one 6 in 6 flings supposed to be 0.6651

  • @rumbid6020

    @rumbid6020

    3 жыл бұрын

    But it makes the sense the more dices you throw the more chance you have for 6...

  • @eegzaregood9563
    @eegzaregood95634 жыл бұрын

    Who would have thought my man Newton would be wrong about 'GRAVTY'

  • @Luwickdahyena

    @Luwickdahyena

    4 жыл бұрын

    YE!!!

  • @greengreen110

    @greengreen110

    4 жыл бұрын

    flat earthers, but seriously how are they this damn stupid and paranoid?

  • @FuzzyLitchi

    @FuzzyLitchi

    4 жыл бұрын

    I mean he kinda was. Newtonian physics don't work with special relativity

  • @Dockhead

    @Dockhead

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@greengreen110 i think its purely a running joke at this point its gotta be

  • @Super-wr6cf

    @Super-wr6cf

    4 жыл бұрын

    boyo Sorry to disappoint you but no, they’re serious asf and I ain’t lying

  • @frickezthias8638
    @frickezthias86384 жыл бұрын

    I love how you explain the science and math of it, but then also open up a philosophical question in all your videos... Why is it that Isaac Newton got the right answer with math, but wrongly explained the rationale with his words? I've noticed this pattern in other videos you have and it's great

  • @DanielNapoli-vk2lj
    @DanielNapoli-vk2lj4 жыл бұрын

    I’m the only one who noticed that he got 5 “6” after throwing 18 dices? 0.o

  • @halfcookedramen

    @halfcookedramen

    3 жыл бұрын

    Uhh, Timestamp Plz?

  • @dragonslayerslayerdragon5077

    @dragonslayerslayerdragon5077

    3 жыл бұрын

    ...but have you ever played Yahtzee?

  • @halfcookedramen

    @halfcookedramen

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@dragonslayerslayerdragon5077 What does that have to do with it lol?

  • @cheekibreeki904

    @cheekibreeki904

    3 жыл бұрын

    Must've tried it a lot of times until he succeeded.

  • @astrid2432

    @astrid2432

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@halfcookedramen 9:00

  • @GlutenEruption
    @GlutenEruption10 ай бұрын

    I love how he was explaining how much more difficult it would be for c to roll 3 sixes out of 18 at 6:00 and winds up rolling 4 6’s on camera 😂

  • @droxord_6288
    @droxord_62884 жыл бұрын

    Other people: you eat Me, an intellectual: *YeeT*

  • @napolpettone

    @napolpettone

    4 жыл бұрын

    m.kzread.info/dash/bejne/o2p50bR7pse8gLQ.html

  • @droxord_6288

    @droxord_6288

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@napolpettone 🤣

  • @cliffordbenenati7373

    @cliffordbenenati7373

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@napolpettone *yee....*

  • @engieboi89therealone19

    @engieboi89therealone19

    3 жыл бұрын

    Ye’et

  • @solarfluxman8810

    @solarfluxman8810

    Ай бұрын

    Other people: Let's go eat. Me: Squeet.

  • @DeclanMBrennan
    @DeclanMBrennan4 жыл бұрын

    Nicely explained. The natural follow-on is *the Birthday Problem* : "How many people should be in a room before there is a 50% chance of them sharing the same birthday?". This amounts to throwing a large handful of 365 sided dice (ignoring leap days and the challenge of constructing such dice). The answer is surprisingly low: 23.

  • @eldupa1530
    @eldupa15303 жыл бұрын

    Fun drinking game: every time he says "ye" drink

  • @EHMM

    @EHMM

    3 жыл бұрын

    Oh no.....

  • @kyleflanagan963

    @kyleflanagan963

    2 жыл бұрын

    No thanks, I chose life.

  • @brendaneichler5244

    @brendaneichler5244

    2 жыл бұрын

    Especially since it ought to be "thou"...

  • @6272355463637

    @6272355463637

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@brendaneichler5244 Or thee, depending on case. Well, in modern spelling, at least. Back in ye olde days (actually, before "y"e old days, really), it was spelled with the letter thorn (which only survives today in the Icelandic alphabet). In handwriting, that eventually was written badly enough to come close to the Y form; however, more importantly, it didn't exist in print types imported from the continent, so in various works, it was replaced with the relatively unused Y type (which did exist in German and Dutch alphabets). It also was being replaced by the now common "th", so the Y thing didn't last. Finally, English discarded the singular second person pronoun, replacing it with the (already used in that way) deferential plural form (a differentiation we still keep over here in German, but now using the third instead of second person plural - to be deferential but not quite as deferential - it's complicated, like anything German). The old singular started to fade from active use/common knowledge (even to the point that people start making up new plurals) and archaic spelling/typesetting took on its own life. In this use, however, Y never was a (modern English spelling) "y" type of sound.

  • @Akronox
    @Akronox4 жыл бұрын

    For the people curious regarding Newton's explanation and why it was wrong: "Although Newton correctly calculated the odds of each bet, he provided a separate intuitive explanation to Pepys. He imagined that B and C toss their dice in groups of six, and said that A was most favorable because it required a 6 in only one toss, while B and C required a 6 in each of their tosses. This explanation assumes that a group does not produce more than one 6, so it does not actually correspond to the original problem." (from Wikipedia).

  • @edwardblair4096

    @edwardblair4096

    3 ай бұрын

    I was hoping the video here would go into more detail about why Newton's intuitive explination was wrong. That is go into more of a mathematical explination of the error rather than a verbal error.

  • @TheRealGuywithoutaMustache
    @TheRealGuywithoutaMustache4 жыл бұрын

    "Probability of finding my marker *100%"* Whenever I try to find something, that I lost, I usually have a 0% chance of finding it unless I stop looking for it.

  • @technicallybread

    @technicallybread

    4 жыл бұрын

    Just like my will to live

  • @adararelgnel2695

    @adararelgnel2695

    4 жыл бұрын

    You again

  • @schtoobs

    @schtoobs

    4 жыл бұрын

    Ahh yes...The Heisenberg Lost Property Property.

  • @Qwr987

    @Qwr987

    3 жыл бұрын

    He's here, he's there, he's everywhere! Who you gonna call? Physic Friend "Just Some Guy without a Mustache".

  • @YellowToad

    @YellowToad

    3 жыл бұрын

    probability of me typing this: 100%

  • @alexandermestre5208
    @alexandermestre52084 жыл бұрын

    Kevin: probability of finding my marker A 100%! Michael: or is it?

  • @keshavleitan7800

    @keshavleitan7800

    4 жыл бұрын

    Actually he said marker😅. But I get the joke.

  • @xXDarQXx

    @xXDarQXx

    4 жыл бұрын

    Did he really find the marker? Is the marker right there in his palm? And what do that mean? Does it have to exist between the confines of his grasp for him to be sure that he found it? What if the marker is a reflection of the real one so our eyes tricked us to think that he really does have it? Well you might argue that he senses its presence its touch but we don't know that. He may have been just pretending to have it while some kind of cgi special effects that edited the marker in there. He may have /found/ the marker but did it really happen? Only because it was video taped then it must be true right? Than I would bet that Thanos is as real as Uranus is a gas mess. And furthermore, did the past really happen? Where does the past exist? George Orwell in his immortal classic "1984" called that exact same question into trial setting place in the dystopian future of 1949 (the year the book have been released). He argued that the past exists in two places and two places only, human memory and records made by humans. A fascist government can easily alter the former, but surely they can't alter human memory? Well, human memory is as mortal as the ones who wields, and such a weakness can easily be spoiled to wipe it out. As it had been shown to us by our total obleviance about the daily routine and religious life of our early ancestors. Maybe it can't be altered but it can be easily wiped and refilled. Furtunatly our future was far from what George foretold, at least as far as we can tell. And a large part of our history as we tell at subjectively correct.

  • @alexandermestre5208

    @alexandermestre5208

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@xXDarQXx I came for the memes, I ended up with an existential crisis

  • @kyllianvanleeuwen8835

    @kyllianvanleeuwen8835

    4 жыл бұрын

    Don't you mean kevin?

  • @alexandermestre5208

    @alexandermestre5208

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@kyllianvanleeuwen8835 Yes, thanks for the catch. I wrote without thinking.

  • @agah666
    @agah6664 жыл бұрын

    the whole video is like; *"well yes, but no."*

  • @nickparkyn3561

    @nickparkyn3561

    3 жыл бұрын

    Well yes, but actually no, right? WRONG!

  • @MrZoblox

    @MrZoblox

    3 жыл бұрын

    well ye but no

  • @giacomopamio1191
    @giacomopamio11914 жыл бұрын

    Newton: * gets one problem wrong * Some guy on the internet some hundred years later: it's free real estate

  • @lesenfantsterribles2119
    @lesenfantsterribles21194 жыл бұрын

    Love your videos man! Keep it up! Your enthusiasm and easy explanation keeps me coming back

  • @zacchambers2418
    @zacchambers24184 жыл бұрын

    I appreciate all the effort you put into your vids. Keep it up!

  • @johnjohnson9560
    @johnjohnson95603 жыл бұрын

    I actually did the math, and even if you were looking for exactly one 6, for the first set, that's about a 40.19% chance, while exactly 2 with 12 dice is about 26.61%, and exactly 3 sixes with 18 dice, is about a 24.52% chance. My math also matched that of Vsauce2's for the first idea of at least that amount of sixes.

  • @ivarskursitis601
    @ivarskursitis6013 жыл бұрын

    After hearing lots of “ye” He: “am I joke to you?”

  • @lewisho8114

    @lewisho8114

    3 жыл бұрын

    Are you a memenade viewer

  • @ivarskursitis601

    @ivarskursitis601

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@lewisho8114 The hell is that? XD

  • @lordman5497

    @lordman5497

    3 жыл бұрын

    Am I a joke to ye?

  • @anawesomepet

    @anawesomepet

    3 жыл бұрын

    Yee

  • @EHMM

    @EHMM

    3 жыл бұрын

    Ye is the (y is þ) SO TAKE UR HISTORY CLASSES BOI

  • @demerion
    @demerion4 жыл бұрын

    In edited this comment and now you can't see why it was upvoted!

  • @krzyswieczorek8592

    @krzyswieczorek8592

    4 жыл бұрын

    Haha same

  • @mohammadazad8350

    @mohammadazad8350

    4 жыл бұрын

    me too , right? Wrong!!!

  • @hitgove2968

    @hitgove2968

    4 жыл бұрын

    ikr. Wrong

  • @mohammadazad8350

    @mohammadazad8350

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@hitgove2968 ikrw.

  • @cthulhufhtagn2483

    @cthulhufhtagn2483

    4 жыл бұрын

    It's this channel's version of "Or is it?"

  • @ora_veugle
    @ora_veugle4 жыл бұрын

    "And like Newton said, C is even worse" Kevin, 7:27 2020

  • @aikslf

    @aikslf

    4 жыл бұрын

    C is a decent programming langauge

  • @fireserpent9854

    @fireserpent9854

    4 жыл бұрын

    Z You mean Csharp?

  • @myartmypassion6835

    @myartmypassion6835

    3 ай бұрын

    Or is it?

  • @davidebellandi4657
    @davidebellandi46574 жыл бұрын

    As you yourself showed in the episode about vitamin c and scurvy, I believe it does in fact matter to know how and why something works the way it does... at least sometimes. Who knows if or when the maths behind this problem could be useful? Nevertheless, everyone's contribution to science is more than welcome and can be the ground for further discussion. So... thanks for letting us watch!

  • @Khantia
    @Khantia8 ай бұрын

    This reminds me of a physics test I held in university. There was one question to determine what distance will an object travel after some seconds, or something like that. I used the x = x0 + v0t + a(t^2)/2 formula and got something like 34 m. But the test didn't have 34 as an answer, it had 34.2, so that's what I picked. And later on I was trying to find my mistake. Then I used the m(v^2)/2 + mgh = const and I did get 34.2m. It's been several years since that happened, so it may have been the other way around. But I did get the correct answer, using the 'wrong' method. Granted it would've been wrong, if it was an open answer, rather than an a/b/c/d option.

  • @firedropcutie
    @firedropcutie4 жыл бұрын

    Newton: *gets correct answer but wrong explanation* The whole world: It's ok we don't mind Me: *gets correct answer but wrong explanation* Teacher: You know nothing

  • @staberas

    @staberas

    4 жыл бұрын

    /this :(

  • @hugogamboas.5550
    @hugogamboas.55504 жыл бұрын

    I once was in physics class, we were doing extra points problems. We had a trick question about speed. So long story short the correct process was using twice the distance. I used half the time. That gave me the correct answer through the wrong method. In the end the teacher decided to give me the points because even if it wasn’t her reasoning, my reasoning was valid.

  • @malaikiap3813
    @malaikiap38133 жыл бұрын

    Love your videos man. Can you do a video on the Unexpected Hanging Paradox sometime soon?

  • @cecillewolters1995
    @cecillewolters19952 жыл бұрын

    That ending speech resonated hard with me as a game maker xD Cool video, thanks :)

  • @scorchedshadow
    @scorchedshadow4 жыл бұрын

    9:40 has worst odds, gets at least 4 on first fling XD

  • @loreleihillard5078

    @loreleihillard5078

    4 жыл бұрын

    They're all still above 50% chance of happening

  • @krzyswieczorek8592
    @krzyswieczorek85924 жыл бұрын

    Kevin: It's less probable to get three sixes in 18 dice that to get one six in 6 dice. Also Kevin at 9:40 : Throws 18 dice and gets at least five sixes and throws 6 dice getting just one six

  • @seabassthegamer6644

    @seabassthegamer6644

    4 жыл бұрын

    Probability is weird like that. It's why game developers will sometimes bias the odds in a player's favor in higher percents, because people feel weird when their action with a 90% success rate gets that 10% fail rate.

  • @namyapadsala3099

    @namyapadsala3099

    4 жыл бұрын

    Plot twist : it was done atleast 10 times and got more than 3 everytime, so he gave up and kept the 5 6s

  • @oliverm3589

    @oliverm3589

    4 жыл бұрын

    Probability: Yeah bitches, it's me! Back to mess with your mind once again!

  • @hinleung7502
    @hinleung7502 Жыл бұрын

    "The important thing is someone needs to get complicated about getting simple to prevent seemingly simple things from getting suddenly complicated. Which makes things simpler for us so that we can move on to things that are more complicated" Is such a profound quote. It applies to the process of science, maths, and broader fields such as engineering or even just the modern society and division of labour.

  • @mobilebeast6736
    @mobilebeast67364 жыл бұрын

    I figured this out before I even watched this... There is more open space on the 6th side because there are 6 dots so it is more likely for you to land on 6 because the heaviest side would most likely be down (the heaviest side is 1, which is on the opposite side of 6)

  • @geo8626

    @geo8626

    4 жыл бұрын

    what if the dice had stickers on it that showed 1 to 6 ?

  • @justinyoung6342
    @justinyoung63424 жыл бұрын

    Newton also did alchemy, so he got more than just this wrong.

  • @pilotwhaleproductions5880

    @pilotwhaleproductions5880

    4 жыл бұрын

    He also thought he was the second coming of Christ and that the Bible was coded with secret messages to him. Even with the standards at the time he was a bit wacky and also a math thief

  • @Johnny-Joseph

    @Johnny-Joseph

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@user-ox3ov2qt5o It's not impossible. Stars do it all the time.

  • @EebstertheGreat

    @EebstertheGreat

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@pilotwhaleproductions5880 I have never seen the claim that Newton thought he was God. The usual claim is that he was an Arian (an early church "heresy") because he rejected the Trinity. Others claim his views resembled the Sozzinis', a 16th century Italian family of nontrinitarians. It is certainly true that he held some strange theological views, but arguably, from an objective standpoint, they were no stranger than the orthodox views of the time.

  • @EebstertheGreat

    @EebstertheGreat

    4 жыл бұрын

    ​@@user-ox3ov2qt5o Transmutation (making precious metals like gold and silver from base metals like lead and mercury) was an ultimate goal of alchemy, related to other ultimate goals like creating the philosopher's stone (an object capable of transmutation to gold or silver on contact), the alkahest (a "universal solvent" capable of dissolving all substances, or at least all substances not elementally pure), and the panacaea (a cure for all ailments). But there was more to alchemy than just those end goals. Chemistry as a discipline did not exist in the 17th century, so all progress in the field had been made (and was being made) by alchemists, like Paracelsus, Robert Boyle, and Johann Joachim Becher . Newton's ideas in the field were somewhat influential due to the status of his name but not useful or correct, which is why they are not remembered. So he was still wrong about that stuff. But the problem isn't that alchemy itself was pseudoscience. It was _based_ in false, unscientific ideas, but then again, so was Newton's physics. The actual experiments alchemists conducted and laws they formulated were pretty scientific for the time; indeed, more so than Newton's law of gravity (which could only be mathematically confirmed to any precision for celestial bodies, as objects on Earth experience too much drag from air, and timepieces at the time were not sufficiently accurate anyway).

  • @Outwardpd

    @Outwardpd

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@user-ox3ov2qt5o Alchemy was not just about making stuff into gold lol it was just one of the goals of all alchemists to be able to do it, Alchemy is literally just 'chemistry' before chemistry existed.

  • @GregoMorgan
    @GregoMorgan4 жыл бұрын

    0:10 - I guess as it applies to everyone, we could say there's no I in gravty.

  • @RebelliousOutsiders

    @RebelliousOutsiders

    4 жыл бұрын

    Nice catch!

  • @chriswebster24

    @chriswebster24

    3 жыл бұрын

    There’s also no “me” in gravty, unlike team, which is impossible without me.

  • @megatronikal8853
    @megatronikal88533 жыл бұрын

    8:59 THERES NO YE? ONLY HE?

  • @Simon-ps3oj
    @Simon-ps3oj4 жыл бұрын

    This comment has eight words in it, right? WRONG

  • @Hlebuw3k

    @Hlebuw3k

    4 жыл бұрын

    Or does it?

  • @noproblem2333

    @noproblem2333

    4 жыл бұрын

    *Ferociously slams his desk with some random object*

  • @EhrenCG

    @EhrenCG

    4 жыл бұрын

    That depends, are we talking about AT LEAST eight words or EXACTLY eight words?

  • @jessicadoggo6095

    @jessicadoggo6095

    4 жыл бұрын

    9 because it says wrong

  • @royaleforcesyt

    @royaleforcesyt

    4 жыл бұрын

    Yes, it Does have 8 words in it technically. (Don’t whoosh me)

  • @namavoid3266
    @namavoid32664 жыл бұрын

    I feel like the trait that they “look nice” is probably not the first thing that I would care about with earbuds...

  • @purpleshep7439

    @purpleshep7439

    4 жыл бұрын

    But What about my ear eyes. you have those, right?

  • @____-pb1lg

    @____-pb1lg

    4 жыл бұрын

    Not true for everyone tho

  • @vgamesx1

    @vgamesx1

    4 жыл бұрын

    I'm far from an audiophile but I've never been very concerned with how my sound devices look as long as they don't sound like dollar store trash.

  • @ianbelletti6241
    @ianbelletti62419 ай бұрын

    Actually, the probability in at least x number of 6s in a rolled set is not simply 1-p. It's the number of successful answers divided by 6^n answers. I calculated it out and oddly enough atleast two 6s in a set of 12 dice is slightly more likely than options A or C. A and C are approximately 2% less likely than B. Its close enough that in practice they might as well be considered equal.

  • @HenkJanBakker
    @HenkJanBakker3 жыл бұрын

    Amazing how you misuse Occam's razor but still get the right conclusion. It isn't about how simpler works more often but about not adding (multiplying) problems without a good reason.

  • @graphwarsinc.2201
    @graphwarsinc.22014 жыл бұрын

    Vsause2 is so mathematically cool, no-one even thinks about saying "First"

  • @eegzaregood9563

    @eegzaregood9563

    4 жыл бұрын

    Also because his viewers arent 8 years old

  • @greenpixel716

    @greenpixel716

    4 жыл бұрын

    You are the "First" person saying such a thing

  • @graphwarsinc.2201

    @graphwarsinc.2201

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@greenpixel716 Thou is truest thee.

  • @averagetoucan

    @averagetoucan

    4 жыл бұрын

    So you did it for them.

  • @EvilishDem0nic8732WhatItDo

    @EvilishDem0nic8732WhatItDo

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@eegzaregood9563 I'm 8 and I dont ack like my counterparts at elementary educational institutions

  • @twdodd439
    @twdodd4394 жыл бұрын

    I really, REALLY, want to say Thank You. Jake is MIA and Michael only seems interested in "pay to view" productions, and then there's our boy Kevin. You still bringing thoughtful, well explained, humorous, and sublime knowledge out on a regular basis and I cant Thank You enough. I really like these cognitive or math bias videos as it helps to really learn how to look at a situation, stop and think, think about how you thought, find the logic errors and fix them so things are done to true benefit. These really help to see where pitfalls are and why to avoid them. understanding these pitfalls makes you a better person. I want to shake your hand, buy you a beer, and hope you understand you are doin good fuckin job!

  • @1dgram
    @1dgram4 ай бұрын

    He was simplifying the explaination for the benefit of his friend. I'm not convinced that Newton himself was confused.

  • @patrickbaker7014
    @patrickbaker70144 жыл бұрын

    Kevin: "It happens, or it doesnt" so, does that mean i have a 50/50 chance of winning the lottery, because it will either happen or not happen?

  • @khaoticknightkninja1165

    @khaoticknightkninja1165

    4 жыл бұрын

    Thats what i call the the 50/50 law its how i live life

  • @ojl8904

    @ojl8904

    4 жыл бұрын

    No, it just means there are only two outcomes, but they don’t need to have the same probability

  • @thiagotofano

    @thiagotofano

    3 жыл бұрын

    Chance, yes. Probability, no. Those are two different things. As stated, you have two possible outcomes, but a huge "more likely" of one over the other.

  • @dawoodnoman6236

    @dawoodnoman6236

    3 жыл бұрын

    Well millions of people are in the lottery so that means it will be millions of times less than a 50/50 chance relative to if the lottery only had 1 dice with an equal amount of only 1s and 2s on it's sides and only 2 people played that year so only then can it be a 50/50 chance,other than that it is phisically imposible to have a 50/50 chance,your welcome😀.

  • @stickdav6484

    @stickdav6484

    2 жыл бұрын

    YOU HURT MY BRAIN

  • @kub5214
    @kub52144 жыл бұрын

    0:10 Gravity was misspelled, it says "GRAVTY" on the screen.

  • @TheLetterJ10

    @TheLetterJ10

    4 жыл бұрын

    Underrated

  • @oni8337

    @oni8337

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@TheLetterJ10 wtf

  • @JoshWebster327
    @JoshWebster3274 жыл бұрын

    Vsauce2: coin only lands on heads or tails. Me: knowing that coins can land on their side. UNLIMITED POWER

  • @PMA65537

    @PMA65537

    4 жыл бұрын

    Join Mr Smith in Washington.

  • @LARAUJO_0
    @LARAUJO_02 жыл бұрын

    (I'm paused at 2:07) An easy way to calculate the chance of something happening with a certain amount of attempts is to raise the chance of it _not_ happening to the power of the number of attempts, so for box A you could type (5/6)^6 into a calculator and see that you have a roughly 33.5% chance of _not_ getting a single 6 within 6 dice rolls, and the chance of getting a 6 in 6 dice rolls in 100% minus that chance, or 1-(5/6)^6 which is roughly 66.5% If you were to simply do the same for boxes B and C you would only have the chance of rolling a 6 from 12 or 18 dice. However, we need to also factor in the chances of not getting 2 or 3 6es so that's not enough. Let's say you're guaranteed to roll a 6 on one of the 12 dice in box B. The chance of you _not_ getting another 6 with the remaining dice would be (5/6)^11. If you then multiply the chance of getting a 6 once (1-(5/6)^12) by the chance of getting a second 6 (1-(5/6)^11) you'd get about 76.8% If you follow this process of box C your calculation would look like this (1-(5/6)^18)(1-(5/6)^17)(1-(5/6)^16) which equals approximately 86.9% More precise chances: A 0.665102023 B 0.768350298 C 0.869348767 So as you can see, you're much more likely to roll 3 6es from 18 dice than 1 6 from 6 dice

  • @LARAUJO_0

    @LARAUJO_0

    2 жыл бұрын

    6:12 For some reason in Newton's calculation, he multiplies the chance of getting a second 6 in box B by 10 (12*5/6 = 60/6 = 10) and *subtracts* that from the chance of getting a single 6, making the chance of box B rolling 2 6es lower than A rolling 1, yet there's no explanation as to why he added that term and I'm extremely confused by it

  • @APaleDot

    @APaleDot

    3 ай бұрын

    The first term is the chance of rolling at least one 6. But the challenge is to roll two 6s. So, if you roll a single 6, you fail. The first term includes the possibility of rolling a single 6, so you have to subtract all those possible outcomes in order to get the probability of rolling at least two 6s.

  • @AYhatterthanyoouu
    @AYhatterthanyoouu4 жыл бұрын

    PLEASE BRING BACK MIND BLOW SERIES 🥺

  • @ThAlEdison
    @ThAlEdison4 жыл бұрын

    "Some of ye" is correct, but when you switch from object to subject in the next line, you should've switched from "ye" to "you".

  • @jetison333

    @jetison333

    4 жыл бұрын

    Ye actually means the, not you, I believe.

  • @matj12

    @matj12

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@jetison333 Ye is an English pronoun. The was written þe when printing presses were first imported to Britain. They didn't have the letter þ and they typed y instead of þ because it was the most similar letter.

  • @losveratos

    @losveratos

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@matj12 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ye_(pronoun)

  • @lasunncty

    @lasunncty

    4 жыл бұрын

    The other way around. Ye is usually a subject pronoun.

  • @mmburgess11

    @mmburgess11

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thine thinks thee has too much tyme on thoust's hands.

  • @szymonkomar1672
    @szymonkomar16724 жыл бұрын

    Math teachers be like: "Yes, you have the right anserw, but you didn't use a certain formula, so you are wrong"

  • @amshumanrousselot2850

    @amshumanrousselot2850

    3 жыл бұрын

    Not "you", ye !

  • @Olav_Hansen
    @Olav_Hansen2 жыл бұрын

    Simplest answer I can come up with: The chance of rolling NOT EXACTLY the number of dice that you expect increases when you roll more dice. This means that on average dice will be higher and lower more frequently compared to the exact amount needed, meaning that there will be less equal to or higher then expected, since the amount of 'equal' shrinks twice as fast as the amount of 'higher' grows. In order to get this distribution, I visualised a p distribution and placed the chances of each happening within that distribution. Then I found out that some of the negative probability got mixed into the "equal" bracket.

  • @mder3a
    @mder3a4 жыл бұрын

    Nice touch with the all twos dice at the end used for the Vsauce(2) logo.

  • @figsenjoyer
    @figsenjoyer4 жыл бұрын

    So was it Smith or was it John? Newton: It was John, but he was also called Smith Kevin: It was Smith but he was also called John. Me: -_-

  • @aman_singh__
    @aman_singh__4 жыл бұрын

    Newton was also wrong in calculating the speed of sound by assuming air to be isothermal then Laplace corrected him by taking it to be adiabatic and obtained the correct value of speed of sound as obtained experimentally

  • @Aurora-Palace

    @Aurora-Palace

    4 жыл бұрын

    the floor is made out of the floor

  • @diarandor

    @diarandor

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@Aurora-Palace The floor is lava!

  • @dragonslayerslayerdragon5077
    @dragonslayerslayerdragon50773 жыл бұрын

    My intuition was to break each problem into groups of 6 and then realize that while all 6 groups from the 3 trials had a 1/6 chance, the probability of more than one group failing to land their 6 at the same time as another, was a value greater than zero. This lowered the probability from the initial 1/6 to a lesser value as more rows of 6 are added.

  • @jakubjakubowski944

    @jakubjakubowski944

    2 жыл бұрын

    But at the same time each group have also a chance to land more than needed 1 six and can borrow it to "failed" ones.

  • @alexvasilev7976
    @alexvasilev79763 жыл бұрын

    I believe you because I thought so too when you showed us the three options. I did some calculations in my notebook too cause we are learning about probability and chance.

  • @Mauripsu
    @Mauripsu4 жыл бұрын

    "What are we doing with ye dice?" Sending them to fight Dice Vader

  • @allegrovivace6806
    @allegrovivace68064 жыл бұрын

    I once asked my math teacher the probability of her not giving us homework for the rest of the year. And then COVID-19 came.

  • @koifish528

    @koifish528

    4 жыл бұрын

    All work given would be homework though, unless school already ended for you

  • @murtazamohammadi1938
    @murtazamohammadi19384 жыл бұрын

    The background music is just amazing. Possible for you to share?

  • @varvaramir
    @varvaramir3 жыл бұрын

    Kevin in any video: Uses object to explain some complex mathematical concept Also Kevin: Throws it into the black abyss five seconds later

  • @climbingdu74
    @climbingdu744 жыл бұрын

    Really strange for me that you say "yee" instead of "you" 😂

  • @realedna
    @realedna4 жыл бұрын

    I didn't find a clear explanation between all the "YE"s, where the difference in probability stems from. The 2 equations given seem not to have a relationship between them to show the difference. Here is, how I view it: PrB = PrA * PrA + 2 * (1-p)^6 * [1 - (1-p)^6 - (6/1)p*(1-p)^5] = PrA^2 + 2 * (5/6)^6 * [1-(5/6)^6-(5/6)^5] = (0.6651...)^2 + 2 * 0.08815... = 0.44236... + 0.1763... = 0.6187... or actually 0.6186... Or in words: The B-Case (getting at least two 6s from 12 dice) is like winning Case A two times in a row (which is less probable overall), but has the advantage (extra winning cases), that you can win by having more than one 6 in one CaseA (expression in [ ]), while having none in the other ( (1-6)^6 ; overall times 2, because the order of these A-Cases can be switched ). So these cases are added and are special to the case with 12 dice. It's still a number game, but I think it is easier to derive and understand this way, where the difference stems from.

  • @immaparrot2824

    @immaparrot2824

    4 жыл бұрын

    Math

  • @FLPhotoCatcher

    @FLPhotoCatcher

    4 жыл бұрын

    I think ye nailed it.

  • @GrammeStudio

    @GrammeStudio

    4 жыл бұрын

    it's basically an issue of whether the number of 6's required reduces the probability more or the number of dice available increases the probability more. simply put Newton was lucky even though he overlooked that there's another factor at play that buffers the effect of the number of 6's required.

  • @alphavasson5387

    @alphavasson5387

    4 жыл бұрын

    That's what I thought too, it makes more sense to me that way

  • @kevinroche5480

    @kevinroche5480

    4 жыл бұрын

    I think that ye are a nerd (I mean that as a compliment).

  • @petertherobot9326
    @petertherobot93262 жыл бұрын

    Issac newton: *did one mistake * EVERYONE: IT'S THE IMPOSSIBLE TEST

  • @yopman411
    @yopman4119 ай бұрын

    The odds of any 1/X chance happening in X tries usually hovers arpund 60%.

  • @vaikkajoku
    @vaikkajoku4 жыл бұрын

    john smith has to be the most generic name ever

  • @extraterrestrialcontent

    @extraterrestrialcontent

    4 жыл бұрын

    Ikr

  • @M_Chen333

    @M_Chen333

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@extraterrestrialcontent WRONG

  • @aljo8200

    @aljo8200

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@M_Chen333 elaborate

  • @laemmeelagi

    @laemmeelagi

    4 жыл бұрын

    Actually that would be Mohammed or some of the kind

  • @SnipyLPs

    @SnipyLPs

    4 жыл бұрын

    john jackson and jack johnson

  • @yeeterr
    @yeeterr2 жыл бұрын

    0:10 : *GRAVTY*

  • @dd-di3mz
    @dd-di3mz3 ай бұрын

    It's simple. Don't aks questions that can be misunderstood and if you do, don't complain. I understood the question as rolling a 6 such that there is at least one combination adding up to 6, either roll a nat6 or 3+3, 2+4, 1+5, 1+1+2+4 etc. In my head the following questions meant the same but you can't use the same dice combination twice, for example rolling 1+1+2+4 and 1+5.

  • @Maciej-Komosinski
    @Maciej-Komosinski3 жыл бұрын

    I don't think Isaac Newton mistook another problem for the original one, and confused the outcome of "groups of six" tosses with the original "number of sixes in 12 or 18 tosses". The difference between both cases is obvious and Newton, having spent so much time on a careful analysis of this puzzle and on calculations, would not make such an obvious error. I have read the "Isaac Newton as a Probabilist" paper by Stephen M. Stigler (available on arXiv) and the Wikipedia description of the Newton-Pepys problem. I think Newton wanted to provide another similar example to Pepys, as if he was saying "In answering your original question, it may be helpful to imagine a situation where B and C toss their dice in groups of six.". What may be incorrect is to draw a conclusion from that other hypothetical situation and use it directly for the original problem, but who knows what Newton had in his mind and imagination when he provided this other example. I don't think he considered both the original question and his alternative example as equivalent. As I understand, the issue brought up today is whether his alternative example was helpful at all in considering and analyzing the original problem.

  • @MaxMalevich
    @MaxMalevich4 жыл бұрын

    It sometimes feels like Kevin doesn't have half a clue about what he is saying, as if he just remembered the text and actions needed to accompany the whole smartness

  • @paulatkins9675

    @paulatkins9675

    4 жыл бұрын

    lol he doesn't have a clue, his videos breed internet fake news, but as long as you don't believe a word he says they are quite fun to watch

  • @vinlebo88

    @vinlebo88

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@paulatkins9675 Mind pointing out which fake news his videos breed?

  • @paulatkins9675

    @paulatkins9675

    4 жыл бұрын

    @Kanashimi he is akin to a magician, manipulating you into thinking something is true when in fact it is a total fabrication - he would make a good car salesman, if that isn't his full time job already - he's just a new age conman - he could probably convince you the earth was flat if you listened to him long enough - some people are easily manipulated

  • @mustafamotiwala2335

    @mustafamotiwala2335

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@paulatkins9675 I'm curious then, could you give some examples?

  • @JesusLove3573
    @JesusLove35734 жыл бұрын

    KZreadr: *Uploads during quarantine* Viewers: *_Bored at home watching every single video ever_*

  • @djrekin7312

    @djrekin7312

    4 жыл бұрын

    KZreadr: Uploads a video during quarantine Raycon: Allow us to introduce ourselfs

  • @IbraheemMoizoos
    @IbraheemMoizoos4 жыл бұрын

    Teacher always said show your work for partial marks. Who knew the partial marks would be the answer

  • @laurenh1054
    @laurenh10543 жыл бұрын

    teacher: your answer was right, but you used the wrong equation, so i'm marking it wrong

  • @spagiti6923
    @spagiti69232 жыл бұрын

    "It was simple till it wasn't" The history of science in a nutshell

  • @firetehfox5764
    @firetehfox57643 жыл бұрын

    Man its crazy that math is something us humans invented and can actually be applied to real life solutions

  • @mmburgess11

    @mmburgess11

    3 жыл бұрын

    @Hedgehog we found it correctly, but the reasons why were wrong.

  • @chriswebster24

    @chriswebster24

    2 жыл бұрын

    That’s like saying humans invented oxygen, or gravity. Man didn’t invent math anymore than foxes did.

  • @jackbarbey
    @jackbarbey4 жыл бұрын

    I took a class with Stigler. He was a pretty chill professor. He is best known for Stigler’s Law of Eponymy which states “No scientific discovery is named for its original discoverer, including Stigler’s Law of Eponymy.”

  • @bobon123
    @bobon1232 жыл бұрын

    A nice way of seeing it easily is noticing that for N sets of six dice this probability converges to 1/2 when N goes to infinity. This is clear, as the binomial distribution converge to a symmetrical normal distribution with an average of N, and the probability of getting _exactly_ N sixes becomes negligible. If the question would have asked what is the probability of getting _more_ than N sixes, it would have been the opposite since the behaviour at infinity would be the same, but clearly for N=1 the probability of getting at least 2 sixes is less than 1/2. The main effect relates to the observation that the probability of getting exactly N sixes reduces with N, and if you are including it or not in your answer breaks the apparent reasoning that would lead you to believe that the probability is not a function of N.

  • @deadsirius3531
    @deadsirius35314 жыл бұрын

    Out of curiosity I just put together a quick Python script to run this scenario a thousand times, and each time I get averages exactly like the video says! A gets about 66.5%, B about 61.7%, and C about 59.5% every time

  • @rowgesage936
    @rowgesage9364 жыл бұрын

    One problem with this video, using decimals instead of fractions

  • @phantom5101
    @phantom51013 жыл бұрын

    So instead of squaring the probability of a six being rolled on each dice we square the probability of a six not being rolled and subtract that from one to get the chance of rolling a six. This is purely genius.

  • @devinandersen5572
    @devinandersen55723 жыл бұрын

    And as always... thanks for listening because these math videos are more like podcasts to me, played in the background while I work

  • @Harry-fx9ls
    @Harry-fx9ls4 жыл бұрын

    Actually he invented gravity, he didn’t discover it

  • @AliceTheSpider

    @AliceTheSpider

    4 жыл бұрын

    He did neither of thosething he did model gravity which his model of gravity replaced by Einstein's model of gravity later

  • @paladin1147

    @paladin1147

    4 жыл бұрын

    Red De Cipher You don’t sound smart dawg

  • @ravener96

    @ravener96

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@AliceTheSpider what an awkward sentence

  • @EvilishDem0nic8732WhatItDo

    @EvilishDem0nic8732WhatItDo

    4 жыл бұрын

    He didnt invent it, he just was aware of its and told our dumbasss about it

  • @Darkfire612

    @Darkfire612

    4 жыл бұрын

    Haha.

  • @greendaquil
    @greendaquil4 жыл бұрын

    my boi you mispelled "gatty" It be "gatty: not "gravty"