ANYONE WANNA TALK ABOUT XENOGEARS? Huge thanks to Ridge for sending me my new wallet, supporting Vsauce2 and my coin flipping habit. Here’s the site if you want to check them out! > ridge.com/Vsauce2

@maxhoflock

3 жыл бұрын

I DO!! I want to play it so badly. Have you played that publisher's other Xeno game, Xenoblade Chronicles?

@Cameron-rc5ef

3 жыл бұрын

Xenogears is amazing

@primeroforjesus

3 жыл бұрын

The answer is 8!

@KeldonSlayer

3 жыл бұрын

Welp jokes on you I recognized 8! instantly and knew the answer thanks to you reminding me earlier in the video @1:13, I've memorized factors of 2 and 12 factorial and below

@whitemageserenia

3 жыл бұрын

Xenogears is actually one of my favorite PS1 era RPGs/visual novels. I say /visual novels because well... let's not kid ourselves here, there's more story than there is actual gameplay! Though the few gameplay elements that there actually are, are absolutely great, and hell, the story is pretty damn good too!~ I can't really say the same for the Xenosaga series though..

Reminds me of movie theater food. If a medium is $6 and a large is $7, getting a large seems like the obvious choice when they're actually both way overpriced. The solution is to sneak a microwave in your purse and pop your own in the theater

@maenmallah6337

3 жыл бұрын

They did this experiment once where they had only small for 4 and large for 7 and most people went for small. Then, they added medium for 6 and low and behold, way more people got the large one. When they were asked why, they said they get a much more quantity for just 1$. Basically, marketing people use this trick by inserting a dummy option to push you towards a different decision.

@austinpowers9360

3 жыл бұрын

Large popcorn gets a free refill tho and i eat all of it anyways

@Epsi_Cron

3 жыл бұрын

Screw bringing the microwave! Instead, bring the entire kitchen!

@dashcrawford2154

3 жыл бұрын

Vlogcreations actually did this

@samuelpierce9962

3 жыл бұрын

@@maenmallah6337 Yeah wasn't that on Brain Games?

Group A: 512 Group B: 2250 Me, an intellectual: 8!

@luciousdefanto

3 жыл бұрын

Same wkwk

@BeetoBeeto

3 жыл бұрын

Dude I thought that same thing and said, does that count?

@maybenat

3 жыл бұрын

You, an intellectual: presents the problem in a different form you can still 'purify', therefore not solving it

@nojomyth

3 жыл бұрын

I knew that 5! is 120 and 6! is 720, so 8! is about 56x this number, 50*700 ~ 35'000, 60*700~42'000 Last 2-3 seconds were just approximating that it's between 40k and 41k

@ananshasheta926

3 жыл бұрын

@@maybenat Is it an answer? Yes? Then its an answer. Thats like saying 4/6 isn't the answer to 1/6*4. A solution doesn't need tj be simplified. Anyway thanks to my class liking factorial I actually kinda got it right the moment I saw 8! As the answer because memorized it.

I started adding the numbers, not multiplying. I’m off to a really bad start.

@peNdantry

3 жыл бұрын

Don't feel bad -- I did exactly the same :)

@HeenaPatel253

3 жыл бұрын

Lmfao

@PivotalShrimp

3 жыл бұрын

I guess you could say... things just aren't adding up in your favor.

@SG2048-meta

3 жыл бұрын

@@PivotalShrimp nice

@daychild_

3 жыл бұрын

Same and I guessed 20

Mom:OMG he's going to say his first word Vsauce2: WRONG!

@alwaysw1ns

3 жыл бұрын

Well that's kind of ironic isn't it

@ashmanideep6253

3 жыл бұрын

@@alwaysw1ns Yeah he just proved that he was wrong instead of her mother

@philmenzies2477

3 жыл бұрын

This comment brought me to tears

@bravecow69420

3 жыл бұрын

He just proved that this is not his first word

Lets be honest guys the beginning and the ending of the video where okay but the middle part, damn that was some good stuff

@ignaciomartinchiaravalle

3 жыл бұрын

You've made my day with this comment XD

@maximzaporojan6966

3 жыл бұрын

Why was it actually tho

@xwhite2020

3 жыл бұрын

I'm at the start and it's a wasting my time.

@Antonio-wh8lh

3 жыл бұрын

@@maximzaporojan6966 It’s a reference to 3:55 I believe.

@maximzaporojan6966

3 жыл бұрын

@@Antonio-wh8lh That's not what I meant

I guessed "40,320" for A because that's the number you said right before. My media comprehension is too good to fall for your tricks >:)

@SanneBerkhuizen

3 жыл бұрын

I guessed 8! And I was right :')

@verme8444

3 жыл бұрын

K

@joelewis8416

3 жыл бұрын

ok genius

@T4zchi

3 жыл бұрын

I did the same thing

@NStripleseven

3 жыл бұрын

Sanne Berkhuizen ok lol

0:51 "You'll have exactly 5 seconds to solve the one you chose." Me: *Laughs in pause button*

@xuly3129

3 жыл бұрын

Anchoring also works on the (I V vi IV) chord progression.

@eithanloma6637

3 жыл бұрын

THEY SAID YOU CAN ESTIMATE IT SO YOU DONT HAVE TO LAUGH ABOUT IT

@jacobwiens659

3 жыл бұрын

Me: Panics in 2x speed

@standupyak

3 жыл бұрын

Scientists: "your brain is capable of having 1000 trillion operations per second" Me: 3 take it or leave it

@elektroyvlogzzz6927

3 жыл бұрын

@@xuly3129 yeah I know what music theory is

I was going to argue "when's the last time you got tails 7 times in a row?" then proceded to flip a coin 7 times and felt dumb when all 7 were tails

@MirunaNero

3 жыл бұрын

I once got 40ish heads in a row with a penny as a kid. I was really bored

@Davis...

3 жыл бұрын

@the Painted panda ya got karma

@kazzyanddecchan733

3 жыл бұрын

@Devinater Just as likely as any other 40-ish sequence. However, I get what you mean, because a sequence containing at least one tail is more likely than all heads.

@felixroux

3 жыл бұрын

First of all, why did you go out of your way to flip 7 coins. Also, the probability of that happening is 1/2^7 or 1/128 which is about 0.75%

@enzoeijsermans4161

3 жыл бұрын

When's the last time you got Thhthtt?

Jokes on you, I have the first ten factorials memorized.

@TheLittleViridianFighter

3 жыл бұрын

I only memorized the first 9 :(

@milaandahiya

3 жыл бұрын

@@TheLittleViridianFighter I did a double take on this lol

@manuelsputnik

3 жыл бұрын

U are a pro

@arjunchawla2248

3 жыл бұрын

Same

@eitansegev

3 жыл бұрын

I am 50 first dumb kids

I actually guessed 40.000. That’s it! That’s the epitome of everything I’ve ever done. It’s only down hill from now on.

@ankandatta6683

3 жыл бұрын

lmao

@ankandatta6683

3 жыл бұрын

tho i guessed like 10000 ish

@BobertJoe

3 жыл бұрын

I guessed it exactly because he said what it was like 45 seconds beforehand

@ofiryaffe8223

3 жыл бұрын

Me too

@slowsatsuma3214

3 жыл бұрын

40 is pretty far from 40,320

jokes on you i have factorials up to 10! memorized

@skatinggamer8441

3 жыл бұрын

You have achieved... THE GIFT xD

@Cheese001

3 жыл бұрын

Copied

@Gustavo-po9bd

3 жыл бұрын

Why memorize if you can calculate right now

@furqaancoatwala382

3 жыл бұрын

Lmao

@derekliu793

3 жыл бұрын

@@BramLastname agh i have trouble iwth being specific sometimes, so no good catch though ;)

Oh, this is why when I have a random number generator from one to a thousand, the number 1000 felt much luckier than 243 even though they have the same odds.

@Tymczaq10

2 жыл бұрын

well in 2d6 throw, getting 12 is more lucky than getting 7

@MythicByrd

2 жыл бұрын

@@Tymczaq10 True, but in a 1d12 throw, getting 12 is the same as getting 7. But the reason the OP finds 1000 much luckier than 243 is probably just because 1000 is a number most people find more important thant 243

@venn7257

2 жыл бұрын

@@MythicByrd 1000 is a sort of "landmark" number, especially considering that it is the highest possible resulting number in their example.

Kevin: Right? Also Kevin after 0.001 seconds: WRONG!

"Yeah the end was terrible. But the middle was really good" - Game of Thrones

@gernottiefenbrunner172

3 жыл бұрын

The beginning was also really good though, so it doesn't count.

@david_ga8490

3 жыл бұрын

- Toradora

@jimmyh2137

3 жыл бұрын

@@gernottiefenbrunner172 The beginning was bad because you get a million characters thrown into the mix and you get lost for a long time untill half of them are dead and the main cast starts to delineate better.

“The people who solved problem A estimated 512” Me who guessed exactly 512: .......

@user-je1hi6jy1i

2 жыл бұрын

same i choosed 514

“I’ll do my homework later” Kevin:

“Everything I say is a lie.... except that....and that....and that...” -Peter Griffin

@harsh3624

3 жыл бұрын

And this.

@isaiahdahler8933

3 жыл бұрын

This sentence i just said is false.

@harsh3624

3 жыл бұрын

@@isaiahdahler8933 which sentence? It's a joke. I understood him.

@isaiahdahler8933

3 жыл бұрын

@@harsh3624 I said the sentence I said was false, not his/her's. I was also saying a joke.

@user-bq7sn9ji3u

3 жыл бұрын

LIAR

“You’re lying to yourself “ Me: what changed

@AxxLAfriku

3 жыл бұрын

GAGAGAGAGAGA!!! I watched this video and it is really not that good compared to my perfect videos. GAGAGAGAGA!!! This is NOT self-promotion! This is the reality! This is the world! We are the people! Don't disl****ke my vide*****s, my dear sli

@kingacrisius

3 жыл бұрын

@@AxxLAfriku What a terrible self-promotion tactic. And yes, it is still self-promotion even if it's true, which it isn't.

@AxxLAfriku

3 жыл бұрын

@@kingacrisius dont talk to me

@unknownability4257

3 жыл бұрын

@@kingacrisius lol wtf is wrong with him

@legendgames128

3 жыл бұрын

AxxL I assume you are a manager of the store that wants people to buy expensive stuff using the tactics described in the video? Oh wait, you didn't watch the video.

I started rounding prices up when I was a teenager and learned about the 9/10s of a cent at the end of all gasoline prices. So, $0.98 9/10s = $1.00 in my head. I've been doing it so long I barely see the decimals anymore.

When he said “wrong” I just about cried, WHY IS EVERYTHING MY FAULT… jk love you Kevin

Michael: questions life and science Kevin: does cool math stuff and has a white board Jake: makes movies

This video is so effin good. We are all in denial in soooo many aspects in our lives and we should all stop seeking praise and giving blame because of this. That is the way of the future

Oof, I remembered what 8! was after I saw the problem since you showed us "40,320" right before it: was a trigger word.

Thanks Vsauce2 for our weekly existential crisis with this video.

@Superb_Fellow

3 жыл бұрын

hi justin

@TurboZarya

3 жыл бұрын

I go to micheal to think, I go to jake to ponder, I go to kevin to cry

@gay_madilynn

3 жыл бұрын

A fresh Justin Y comment.. interesting!

@mural_emperor_5639

3 жыл бұрын

stop fallowing me

@YawgmothWasRight

3 жыл бұрын

When your first comment dies so you make a new one.

"no one ever comes out of something saying the ending and beginning were bad, but that they enjoyed the middle" me, having read homestuck: well so you see actually

@SirKibble15

3 жыл бұрын

Tab is getting discontinued

@AO-ly3mv

3 жыл бұрын

@@SirKibble15 why does tab matter Jugglos drink Faygo?

@Doomroar

3 жыл бұрын

Oh that explains why it is so hard to get into, why it is so popular, and why people who put up with it and read it avoid talking about it, all at the same time!

@iwersonsch5131

3 жыл бұрын

How I Met Your Mother

I really like it when he says: Right? WRONG!

I chose A and estimated 40,000. After seeing the other people’s guesses I thought I was so far off, then the answer was revealed and I nearly fell off my chair

i'm confused, were we assuming that the likelihood of a coin flipping/dice rolling sequence being the real sequence is the same as the odds of getting that sequence in the first place? aren't those two different things?

@lukec1471

3 жыл бұрын

Xidnaf??????? Wow I didn’t expect that. No videos ever again?

@glumbortango7182

3 жыл бұрын

HE'S REEMERGED

@Lacie9

3 жыл бұрын

XIDNAF

@samon101

3 жыл бұрын

it's more like one of the three is the real sequence that was achieved by throwing the coin/dice and the other two were made up, and then it was asked which one was the real one but as the three sequences have the same odds of happening, the result of that "social" experiment should be that 1/3 of people should choose the first, 1/3 should chose the second and 1/3 should choose the third. but instead we end up choosing the sequence that looks more "random"

@jbw416

3 жыл бұрын

I believe they are the same. The 'real' sequence is another way of saying a given sequence, so we're calculating the probabilities that this sequence of flips/rolls is one of the ones listed. (p.s. used to love watching your videos, hope you're enjoying whatever you're up to atm c:)

Did anyone else think “eight factorial” and just... stop?

@MrT------5743

3 жыл бұрын

That's not the answer though. 8 factorial is just another way to state the problem. It would be like saying the answer to 2+2 is 1+3, neither is the answer.

@dinanmariano

3 жыл бұрын

Unless you're a fifth grader, i'm pretty sure 8! Will be accepted

@Pablud3S

3 жыл бұрын

@@MrT------5743 that's not the point imo. I thought the same thing, and I just have up, knowing there is no chance to calculate that in 5 seconds.

@MrT------5743

3 жыл бұрын

@@Pablud3S the whole point was to guess as close as you can to the correct answer. And 8! is not an answer that he was looking for.

@eadbert1935

3 жыл бұрын

i don't even know what numbers are at this point... i work in [-10,10] or with my calculator and factorials are often subtracted anyway, so more along the lines of 10!-8!, i can't remember when i actually last calculated a factorial...

3:45 - You pulled out that game in such dramatic fashion...When I saw it was Xenogears I softly wept tears of joy. You sir, have impeccable taste.

You are a Champion Mr Sauce, thanks for the video

Wow I always thought I was real but I think I was just lying to myself :(

@linobigatti

3 жыл бұрын

U commenting a lot lately

@jorian_meeuse

3 жыл бұрын

Why is your banner still roud to 200k while you already have 244k

@onionpie310

3 жыл бұрын

Hello onion

@vegito1262

3 жыл бұрын

Bruh what

@zammcut

3 жыл бұрын

What?

me: oh so it’s 8!, probably like 300 idk him: *revealing it’s 40320* me: …oh……

@mightbeahuman3442

3 жыл бұрын

Same

@AbandonedVoid

3 жыл бұрын

Factors are almost always huge, as a rule of thumb.

@faustoflores3334

3 жыл бұрын

@@AbandonedVoid what if the factors are fractions

@leafsharp

3 жыл бұрын

Same

@faustoflores3334

3 жыл бұрын

@@leafsharp lol, no they dont, they become very small

I appreciate the honesty about video game pricing. Everyone today is so much more rich than they were even just five years ago.

All these comments about the actual problem and the one thing I heard was Oneonta. Blew my mind for a min. I grew up about 20 mins from Oneonta, in North Alabama. I never knew there were 2. Just thought that was cool, it's a unique name. I really enjoy your content btw.

It's true, we all sit on a throne of lies and smell like beef and cheese. Makes sense to me

@NStripleseven

3 жыл бұрын

Avery the Cuban-American lol

@andrewknorpp9415

3 жыл бұрын

Avery the cuban-American your everywhere!

@nguyenhoanglong420

3 жыл бұрын

Gotta define the WHOLE MATHEMATICIAL THEN

@jeremyd2676

3 жыл бұрын

Two months to rewwtching Elf again.

@wendytestaburger9199

3 жыл бұрын

You're basically Justin Y but with videos

I just started learning probability in math and my knowledge from you has really helped me excel. Thank you man and keep up the good work!

By the way love your videos very helpful thanks

I guessed 520 despite picking letter B, but what's interesting about it is I multiplied right to left instead of left to right cause it seemed easier. I started with the smaller numbers to get through multiplication quicker, which basically means I multiplied like letter A instead of B; which resulted in a very close median for letter A.

I recognized the factorial, got distracted by that, and didn’t come up with an estimate lmao

@carpedm9846

3 жыл бұрын

"Uhhh its. The answer is. Uh. Eight factorial!"

I recognized it as a factorial and only know 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, but I was much closer to the real answer with my 20 000 guess and I chose the A side too. I'm not invulnerable to biases and knowing that makes me take it in consideration a little more often.

@mohamedazadabdulrahman3226

Жыл бұрын

no it is still worse than my 40320 estimate

@haroldp.sadwood1181

8 ай бұрын

Yeah, I just remembered that 8! was 40,000 and something, so I would have skewed that estimate a bit as well.

@snuffysam

7 ай бұрын

Yeah I don’t have factorials memorized, but it’s not so hard to get the right order of magnitude. 8 x 1 is 8. 4x5 is 20. Those are both kinda close to 10. You can have four pairs of numbers following that pattern (8x1, 7x2, 6x3, 5x4). So it’s gonna be above 10^4.

You just gave me a better marketing strategy. Thanks

Southside Mall!!! I grew up drooling in that toy store!

1:08 Not unless you have the factorials memorized😎

@kianholden7387

3 жыл бұрын

Oh, you like factorials? Name every factorial

@sergey1519

3 жыл бұрын

@@kianholden7387 A000142

@anawesomepet

3 жыл бұрын

1! is 1 2! is 2 3! is 6 4! is 24 5! is 120 6! is 720 7! is 5040 8! is 40320 9! is 362880 10! is 3628800 x! is (x)*(x-1)*(x*2)...*3*2*1

@OeshenNix

3 жыл бұрын

I got 1-5 memorized

@danteregianifreitas6461

3 жыл бұрын

I only memorized up to 6, so I tried to multiply 720 by 56, didn't work :/

I could never tell a lie though

@AJBAXTER7677

3 жыл бұрын

Alrighty then I got one for you Do you ever feel like a plastic bag, drifting in the wind, wanting to start again?

@VenkataB123

3 жыл бұрын

@@AJBAXTER7677 Those lines are from Fireworks, right?

@AJBAXTER7677

3 жыл бұрын

@@VenkataB123 Yes, cause I am that unoriginal 😂

@nguyenhoanglong420

3 жыл бұрын

@林 勇 yeah right ! I HOPE HE KNOWS HOW TO COUNT

@KazimirQ7G

3 жыл бұрын

I trust you, dear Supreme Leader! 🤗

That coin flip one really got me though

We had this in the consumer behaviour module of our marketing degree!!

"You're Lying To Yourself (and I'll prove it)" no need, i already know.....

I was gonna inform yall that my dad went to buy milk and will be back, but dis dude told me that I'm just lying to myself

@somerandomweeb4836

3 жыл бұрын

No, I am your father

@KnzoVortex

3 жыл бұрын

What a dummy amirite? Amirite?

Some of these were kinda trained out of me with the puzzles and riddles my dad put in front of me, plus the bazillion I subjected myself to. Especially prices and sales

7:32 What about prices like "$222.22" or "$1212.12". What are they trying to brainwash you with?

@Nuclearburrit0

3 жыл бұрын

The number 2 obviously

@louisBrother1988

3 жыл бұрын

@@Nuclearburrit0 ._.

I saw this notification when telling myself how terrifying the mario 64 piano is

"You're lying to yourself" I know

@manuelsputnik

3 жыл бұрын

PepeHands

@Davis...

3 жыл бұрын

Hol'up

Thanks for the salesman trick I’ll now make prices using it

My brain shut off after the card flip. I thought the lie expose would be "You are probably still trying to solve the number"

@Zudexa

3 жыл бұрын

When will you just give up honestly?

@ethervagabond

2 жыл бұрын

haha, yeah, as soon as he flipped the card over I was like "...nope, don't care"

4:50 if someone came up to me and said: "yo, I just rolled 5 dice. You want to bet I got a yahtzee (55555), a full house (22444), or 13445?", I know which one I'd pick. Knowing that there are two wrong answers makes it an easy bet to pick the one that seemingly is more likely. If you had to bet any of these outcomes BEFORE the roll happened, then yes, they are all equally likely - but it's very possible that none of these outcomes will occur. Knowing that one of these three outcomes has to be the actual outcome makes it a very sensible decision to write off the two more 'unlikely' rolls as the fake answers

@killerbee.13

3 жыл бұрын

Actually, since order doesn't matter in Yahtzee, those aren't all equally likely, which makes it different, but your point would be valid with a different example. Basically, random processes tend towards maximum entropy, and 7 tails in a row is minimum entropy, which means that it is more likely to be fabricated than to have come out of a random process, if you know that both types of sequences exist in the answers.

@karlboud88

3 жыл бұрын

then he tells you he rolled 12345, so you lose :P

@MrT------5743

3 жыл бұрын

@@killerbee.13 But if someone were to flip a coin 100 times, it is very likely there will be a series of 7 tails or 7 heads in a row. Long sequences of the same outcome when each is a 50/50 is just as likely as alternating.

@killerbee.13

3 жыл бұрын

@@MrT------5743 I never said anything about alternating sequences. They also have low entropy. High entropy means an unpredictable sequence, or equivalently, an uncompressible sequence. I can abbreviate HHHHHHH to "7H" (2 symbols), but I can't abbreviate HTHTHHH (A sequence I just flipped) nearly as much (maybe "2HT3H" (5 symbols)). This compression scheme isn't perfect, and the sequences in question are short so the effect is weak, but it's good enough to demonstrate the point. And while there's a decent chance of getting any arbitrary length 7 sequence within a random (fair) length 100 sequence, that's not what the question, nor my own argument, was about, so I'm not sure what your point was.

@killerbee.13

3 жыл бұрын

@@MrZoolook I was going to do that originally, but decided that making the repetition eager resulted in better results for all the sequences I was looking at. It does mean that incompressible sequences have to be prepended with a 1 though, so it's a trade-off. I could have explained it better but felt the comment was already rather long.

I thought I was hyped to watch this video but now I’m questioning even that

@VikingTeddy

3 жыл бұрын

This was the first vsauce video where nothing was true (for me.) Well statistically it might be. But I don't think I know anyone who would think like he suggested. And I don't understand where he pulled the "no one says the beginning and end were bad but the middle was good". This video was weird man. Edit: Removed needless besserwisserism.

@ViratKohli-jj3wj

3 жыл бұрын

@@VikingTeddy you have negative IQ

*Reads title* Okay but you didn't have to expose me like that Kevin

I could lie so much more like this, Thanks!

0:30 6th grade me when I use google calculator to divide 0.00000190734 by 2 and get something "greater than 1"

@BeetoBeeto

3 жыл бұрын

Wait, * voice crack mode on * huh?

@ani_n01

3 жыл бұрын

Put it down

@OeshenNix

3 жыл бұрын

Tell Google that

@OeshenNix

3 жыл бұрын

Actually a Google bot it will say its right because its lying to otself

The coin flip thing is perfectly reasonable. Whilst you can't predict what a real coin flip will look like (all events are equally likely) you can absolutely predict what a made up coin flip is more likely to look like. If a human being comes up with the two decoys, they are far more likely to choose a pattern than it happening by random chance. So when choosing the real sequence the most sensible approach is to discount the flips that follow the sort of patterns humans are more likely to produce. It might not be the right decision using statistics alone but when you factor in the element of psychology it is absolutely the correct bet.

@Greenleaf_

3 жыл бұрын

Yeah, there are only a handful of sequences that look fake, so if it looks fake, odds are it is.

@Savant_Ananya

3 жыл бұрын

I understand what you are saying but Kevin wanted to show that when choosing between patterns which are equally likely to occur we choose the ones which are most random.

@andrewditton7226

3 жыл бұрын

I think they're off the mark on this. Takes me back to high school exams where there's 3 levels to a subject, but the question requires a lvl 1 response, and It's multiple choice, so we're restricted by the answers you give us and have no way of justifying the logic behind our response. I.e i understand the math is equal anyway, so every order is equally right answer I.e not wrong answer I can't answer wrong. I don't feel like I'm increasing my odds mathematically, but it covers any human tampering and feels tidy. Projecting this as flawed logic and "lying to yourself" I feel is a little skewed. Vague question often have multiple conceivable meanings, therefore multiple possible answers. If I can answer all of them correctly, but have to guess which meaning is implied than It's a flawed question, not a flawed answer.

@Wolfen_II

3 жыл бұрын

He did say that people pick what they picked for all the wrong reasons

@mytwosense

3 жыл бұрын

I was going to say the same thing - the two others were pretty obvious decoys, so it has to be the only one that 'looks' random.

Vsauce: Have you ever heard someone say "yeah, the beginning and end of the movie were terrible but the middle was really good" This is literally how I describe The Ring

Amazing

It sounds more like we are all just bad at math

1:10 virtually nobody Me who knows 8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1 from top of my head

@doommaker4000

3 жыл бұрын

It is just factorial after all

@phoenixstormjr.1018

3 жыл бұрын

Photo math 😏

@TheQueen-qk2ul

3 жыл бұрын

@@doommaker4000 i said 8 factorial or 8!

@aredjayc2858

3 жыл бұрын

Glad I'm not the only one who memorized 0! To 10!

@keelanruffner5440

3 жыл бұрын

I panicked guessed 56.

that example with the 8 numbers to multiplicate is a pretty bad "indicator" of anchoring bias, since the participants of the study most likely just started at the left and based on how far they got, had different outcomes, which they used to base their estimate on the overall end-result of the multiplication on. so instead of anchoring, the reason for the difference is that we read from left to right and, since we are bad at guessing the outcomes of multiplication (/exponential growth), base our estimates on the limited information we have in the first half of the 8 numbers...

@LeafMaltieze

3 жыл бұрын

Yeah, this video has a lot of issues. I'm actually pretty disappointed in this video.

@rinrin4711

3 жыл бұрын

"so instead of anchoring, the reason for the difference is that we read from left to right" - the fact that we read from left to right IS one of the reasons why anchoring effect appears. "just started at the left and based on how far they got, had different outcomes" this does not make sense, noone will start to multiply one by one knowing they have only 5 seconds, the answers are pure estimations except from people who work with factorials.

@davejacob5208

3 жыл бұрын

@@rinrin4711 it is simply a baseless assumption to say that people Do Not try to multiplicate the numbers within the timespan. Even if they knwo the time is Not enough, the task at Hand is about multiplying them, so starting to Do just that is absolutely Not a far fetched idea of how to get closer to the answer. It doesnt even make sense Not to At least think of SOME products of the numbers AT Hand, since otherwise you wouldnt go anywhere towards Findung out the Overall product. So i dont See how you Can assume that they did Not Start with the first multiplications that could have been Made from left to right and to then assume that the behavior of growth is representative. Which would be a consious way of deducing an estimate, based on too little Information, but also on being Bad At foreseeing how exponential growth works. Ne reason to assume anchoring.

I wonder if part of this has to do with us reading left to right and processing information while we read. Would the 8! test have inverse results in scripts read right to left, Kevin?

Just reading the title makes me think about Brody the Cuber

Re: coin toss: Yes, all the sequences are equally likely from a coinflip. But we know that only one was real, and the other two are far more plausible from the alternate process “come up with some non-random-looking-to-humans sequences”.

@karlboud88

3 жыл бұрын

exactly

@akibzuhairsamin2284

3 жыл бұрын

the illusion of randomness

@danielrhouck

3 жыл бұрын

@@akibzuhairsamin2284 I’m not saying that the sequences have different probabilities if you are *about* to flip a coin; they’re the same. I’m saying that if you already flipped the coin and asked me that question, it’s actually reasonable to say B

@Blox117

3 жыл бұрын

@@danielrhouck its only reasonable if you assume the coin toss is not random

@danielrhouck

3 жыл бұрын

@@Blox117 The coin toss is random. The other two options are not. Letʼs repeat the experiment. I just flipped 7 (virtual, random, 50/50, giving 01 instead of HT) coins. The result is one of * 0011111 * 1100111 * 1111111 Which do you think it is? (Sadly online payment is not such that I can reasonably offer a reward for any guess, or I might actually offer you 3 dollars for the right guess) (md5sum hash, for some verification that I didnʼt cheat: cba2b09f2358d7ad5a1a508d1d648c2c.) I can do this many times and about 89% of the time the answer will be 2. About 9% of the time itʼll be 1, and about 2% itʼll be 3.

I recognized 8! and just stopped thinking about it. When you then asked me to estimate, I grouped by numbers that, when multiplied with each other, give something near 10, so I got (2*5)*(3*4)*(8)*(6*7), converted that into 10*10*10*40 = 40 000. It looks like the people from the test groups, when asked to estimate the result, just ditched the last few numbers and estimated the result of the first few numbers.

I feel I know Amos Tversky because of his fond recollection by Kahneman in Thinking fast and slow

Kevin: You're lying to yourself Me: Im not, *OR AM I?*

I picked A, then, after the flip, immediately looked for the largest numbers to multiply, because that's how I work multiplication, so I wouldn't have fit in the A group. Also, I looked over at B while doing mental calculations and saw they were the same anyway. As for the price thing, I learned way back as a young child to just call any price with change the next highest dollar amount. Not just $19.99 = $20, but even something like $19.45 = $20. This is a good practice not just because it gets around the psychological trick that is being attempted, but also because it provides a better estimate including tax which will be added on when actually purchasing. In fact, it seems like none of your anchoring examples even applied to me (I easily figured the coin and dice odds between the choices), but I feel it would be too presumptuous (and perhaps conceited) to say that I've broken anchoring. You just have to look at things as they are and not how you expect them to be.

fascinating, I saw it, immediately parsed it as 8! and then tried to estimate that

awesome !!

2:53 : well, i spent about 1/3 of my time realizing that the questions have the same answer 8! (i was more interested to find out if i randomly picked the easier or the harder question), then another 1/3 of my time trying to remember 7! was 5000 something, and the remaining 1/3 to multiply that by 8 and coming up with my estimate of 40000 something

@louisadsc

3 жыл бұрын

yeah pretty much same, i knew 5! was 120 then i multiplied it by 6 to get 720 and then just guessed 720 multiplied by 56 to be around 38000 ish

@SUPABROS

3 жыл бұрын

I just guessed it because I know 1x2x3x4 blabla blqa till ten is 362880 so I tried to divide it soi divided it byt the second to last number and thought near 40k

1:00 answer: 8! (factorial)

@Alex-fm6jd

3 жыл бұрын

So eight factorial factorial?

@SeeTv.

3 жыл бұрын

@@Alex-fm6jd No, the parentheses are just to explain, what I mean with the symbol "!" because many people don't know or have forgotten the meaning and if they see the name "factorial" they can google it or they remember math class.

@Phillip161

3 жыл бұрын

@@SeeTv. Ich glaube er weiß wie du es meintest und wollte nur witzig sein 😂

@SeeTv.

3 жыл бұрын

@@Phillip161 Ja ich weiss, aber ich habe irgendwie den Drang, exakt zu schreiben, was ich meine xD

@dragatus

3 жыл бұрын

Clever, but also dodging the answer.

Pure win for showing both Legend of Dragoon, AND Xenogears, my favorite PS1 games.

5:06 the second sequence is as likely to occur as the others, but the other 2 sequences are more likely to have been the sequences the trial guys came up with (even though they probably came up with all 3). That makes the second choice still the best choice, even if the chance of it being better is oh so small, it's just that tiny bit bigger then the other ones.

Lol, I got it right. Didn't have time to do it so I just used the number from the beginning.

Thats what i say to every flat earther i meet

@sterlingarcher8041

3 жыл бұрын

hahaha

@tomhappening

3 жыл бұрын

earth is a square

@krum3155

3 жыл бұрын

Earth is a doughnut

@yh3617

3 жыл бұрын

Earth is a dinosaur

For the 1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8 problem, is there any info on the conclusions that people came to if the order was randomized? Or what if the two choices were 1x8x2x7x3x6x4x5 and 8x1x7x2x6x3x5x4? Would these lead to a noticeable difference just because it started with the lowest and highest options?

I picked A, and as I first saw the operation I mistook it for another common trick question so I guessed 11,111 which is still way off haha. Awesome video!

I chose B, I extimated 8 factorial. Yea I cheated

@luciousdefanto

3 жыл бұрын

Same

@gingerinajacket8519

3 жыл бұрын

I chose A, got the same answer, and then noticed these were the same problem.

@nguyenhoanglong420

3 жыл бұрын

They are the same

Regarding coin flip. Of course each of the 3 have the same odds but the random PATTERN of 2 is WAY more likely then the simpler patterns of 1 or 3.

@sharktos3218

3 жыл бұрын

The pattern? If you change that, it's not the same sequence anymore...I don't understand your point

@brootusx

3 жыл бұрын

@@sharktos3218 the coin has already been flipped.. the sequence was definitely one of those 3. Which one is it most likely to be? Obviously number 2. If the question was, I'm now going to flip a coin, which sequence is most likely to appear. Then they're all equal. Because they're all predetermined.

@sharktos3218

3 жыл бұрын

@@brootusx And the video tells you exactly that: The likelihood is the same for all of the combination, no matter how they look. And no, flipping now and already flipped makes no difference

@killerbee.13

3 жыл бұрын

@@sharktos3218 The sequences have different amounts of entropy. Random processes, by the law of large numbers, tend to have nearly maximal entropy, so the interpretation actually does matter, even though technically the time is irrelevant, and the question as stated doesn't clearly rule out the other interpretation. "Which sequence is least likely to have been fabricated?" would be the sequence with highest entropy. "Which of these arbitrary sequences is most likely to match exactly with the 7 he did?" is that they're all the same chance, 1/128, no sequence is inherently more likely than any other.

@brootusx

3 жыл бұрын

@@sharktos3218 I have just flipped a coin 7 times. Guess what sequence i got. 1 - H H T H T T H 2 - T T T T T T T I've done it again, guess again. 1- T T H T H H H 2- T T T T T T T and again 1- H T H T T T H 2- T T T T T T T If we keep doing this and you keep answer 1 youll be right 99.2% of the time. OK let's do it the other way. I'm going to flip a coin in the future. Which sequence will appear first? 1- T H H T H T T 2- T T T T T T T They are both just ask likely. See what I mean?

The first example here (the estimates) makes perfect sense to me. Given that most people won't have enough time to multiply all the numbers, and that most people will go from left to right, it seems logical that most will have a higher estimate for the right than the left, simply because the two problems aren't the same if you only view the first few numbers. For instance, I chose problem B. I had roughly calculated 8x7x6x5x4 as around 6000 (I quickly realized I wouldn't have time for them all). Had I made the same progress on problem A, I'd have been at 1x2x3x4x5, or about 125. I might have gotten a bit further given the lower numbers, but even with two more numbers, I'm still only around 3000. The problems simply aren't the same unless you absorb the entire problem.

I enjoyed this

The thing about the coin flipping though, assuming you're trying to guess the real outcome, there's only one outcome where there all tails, but many outcomes where they are a combination of heads and tails, so it's more likely to be some abstract combination than all tails.

@sharktos3218

3 жыл бұрын

But it's not more likely to be exact this abstract combination

@sianmilne4879

3 жыл бұрын

Yes, but you're not picking ALL TAILS or ANY SEQUENCE OF HEADS AND TAILS, you're picking ALL TAILS or THIS ONE SEQUENCE OF HEADS AND TAILS

@SwordFishTheFish

3 жыл бұрын

Yea you're both 100% right that's just how my anchored bias rationalizes it 😂

@AdmiralJota

3 жыл бұрын

@@sianmilne4879 But you kind of are picking all of them. This is a test on cognitive biases, so the fact that there's one sequences for each of the three families represented (all consistent, mostly consistent with a little variation and completely mixed up) suggests that they were chosen that way on purpose for the sake of the test. And it's much more likely that a genuinely random sequence would be a suitable candidate for the mixed up family of sequences than for either of the others.

@karlboud88

3 жыл бұрын

@@SwordFishTheFish No you are absolutely right, one of the three sequences is correct, and he most likely did not flip 7 tails on his first attempt! hence its most certainly one of the first 2 answers, if he hadn't specified that one of them was the real one only then would all the odds be the same

Fun fact: Anchoring is also one of the many exploitative and manipulative tactics those same companies use to earn much more than just 70$ per Game. Math is also about considering all the parameters.

6:07 nice little mix

Never got that price thing ! I always round .99 cents and usually will round up most .70 cents in terms of how I consider my spendings. Didn't know about the car thing and I guess I'll never be caught now since this video is pretty much my only anchor for it ! Which I'm glad

Me: Maybe im not that bad of a person **VIDEO EXSISTES** Me: oh

Xenogears was prob my favorite game of the PS1 era. Actually rented it from blockbuster and parents just never brought it back.

For the dice problem I thought descending order, the first had a smaller same size so unpredictability is more expected and 2 contained less red than green, so I believed that to be more likely.

Concerning the coin flip problem, if you had asked "Which one of these do you think he got?" then 1 or 2 would be better guesses because it's much more likely that he would've gotten some combination of both heads and tails than all heads or all tails.

@jordanvespa720

Жыл бұрын

But the guesses for 1 or 2 are not "some combination of heads and tails", they are "this exact specific combination of heads and tails". And this is the same probability of getting any other specific combination including all heads or all tails.

"You are lying to yourself and you don't even know" Me who doesn't even believe anything I say since 4th grade: *I'm four parallel universes ahead of you*

Vsause 2: “It’s why 40,320 > 40,320” Thousands of people: Oh boy, this is gonna be interesting

@lonci2244

3 жыл бұрын

and then it wasnt :/

@Nekotaku_TV

3 жыл бұрын

He didn't even explain it. Seems like a joke just to make it seem interesting.

@xPanda25

3 жыл бұрын

@@Nekotaku_TV - Except he did explain it? Lol. 40,320 is 8!, and cards A and B were both 8! but written differently, and people who saw it written in ascending order estimated 8! to be smaller than those who saw 8! written in descending order, therefore 40,320>40,320. The same scenario merely interpreted as being larger depending on the context

@randokaratajev2617

3 жыл бұрын

Nice tricks made. You probably placed the dices yourself.

Yeah. My Xenogears was Imported by a shopowner and i went nearly every day into the shop until it arrived! I love the fact that you are able to play in huge Robots.

I have a disorder where I can’t comprehend numbers easily, they mean nearly nothing to me. So, numerical anchoring has no effect on me. I would like to see a video maybe with examples of anchoring that aren’t based in math- I think that would be very cool!