The Blame Game Begins: The Moscow Theater Attack, Duty to Warn, and Mobilizing against Ukraine
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In the aftermath of the Moscow Theater Attack, an interesting intelligence game began playing out between Russia and the United States. The Kremlin has strong political incentives to tie the attack to Ukraine. Given an earlier warning about the possibility of an attack, the United States likely has information it could release to counter Russian narratives. However, any such revelations risk sacrificing intelligence gathering methods. Thus, the dilemma for the Kremlin is find the right way to frame the attack without inducing the United States to disrupt the process.
This video goes into the details of how such a dilemma works and the complications that come with it.
0:00 The Brewing U.S.-Russia Intel Battle
2:43 What Is "Duty to Warn"?
6:20 Early Warnings of an Attack
8:43 Russia's Ukraine Claims
10:42 Russia's Domestic Reaction to the Link
11:58 The Intelligence Game
16:55 How to Play the Game with Uncertain Information
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
By Khamenei.ir:
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By Kremlin.ru:
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Пікірлер: 1 100
"But they wanted to flee to Ukraine!!1" Yes, through Russian held border checkpoints and hundreds of miles of warzone. Riiiiiight.
@animeXcaso
2 ай бұрын
after being rejected from Belarus it would make sense as a desperate last ditch plan: pose as a deserter and pray somehow they won't ask too many questions. the payment in rubles sets it all
@mofo_4_u75
2 ай бұрын
B. S. As it is
@richardprice5978
2 ай бұрын
German's did that sneak-away tricks in 1943-50~ so possible im voting putan is looking-for or knowledge of USA 🇺🇸 CIA and or president's war-game's as both players are trying not to ICBM each other for 1890's_up but haven't fully committed yet or figured how to win-fully etc
@bestopinion9257
2 ай бұрын
They tried to climb Himalaya toward Ukraine.
@terrified057t4
2 ай бұрын
Yeah like that's the funniest shit ever. Ah yes, flee to Ukraine where all your intelligence and security agencies are focused? And your national guard units along the border? As you said, through Russian border crossings and a literal fucking war zone. Totally legit claim there Putler XD
At this point, dog poop on the streets of Moscow will be blamed on Ukrainian malfeasance.
@TheDarksideFNothing
2 ай бұрын
Mal-fece-nce lol
@maxfreezy5124
2 ай бұрын
I read that snoop dogg will be blamed
@ttcc5273
2 ай бұрын
Putinkhylo can only kill Navalny once... he needs new enemies to draw attention away from him
@user-te7rf8ik7z
2 ай бұрын
Lol, there is an old Russian joke that our porches are dirty because Obama has taken a shit there
@TestEmailAmer-ll3tf
2 ай бұрын
It does matter
Russia: "It is clear to us that the ones behind the attack is-" ISIS-K: "It was us." Russia: "You see? Ukraine admitted it!" Ukraine: "What?" ISIS-K: "What?" Russia: "What?"
@animeXcaso
2 ай бұрын
PRC: what? Belarus: WHAT???
@EricAlbin
2 ай бұрын
@@animeXcaso the Chechens: "Are we a joke to you??!!"
@AlreadyTakenTag
2 ай бұрын
ISIS-K: But... I really was the one behi- Russia: Hush! You don't matter. ISIS-K: I just want to be a relevant terror organization again. This is outrageous, it's unfair ;-;
@andrewrossy
2 ай бұрын
Comedy gold. Couldn't make it up!
@user-qw2oh4zq1h
2 ай бұрын
Victoria Nuland: No, I am to blame for Moscow attack. USA: 'What?'
- The USA warns Russia (a state that they are basically in a cold war with) of an impending terror attack. - Putin openly derides that warning and basically tells the USA to "shut up". - The terror attack happens and the russian police seem completely unprepared for it. - Putin blames the USA for conducting that terror attack. ( the whole world simultaneously face palms) I mean, you dont even have to say anything more than this. In any normal country there would be a public outcry to get the "great" leader to step down immediately.
@gzoechi
2 ай бұрын
Conclusions: Putin was planning the attack, this is why it annoyed him the US knew about it already
@kelvinpell4571
2 ай бұрын
British intelligence warned Stalin that Germany was going to attack in 1941. And it was ignored for Stalins political agenda at the cost of 28,000,000 Soviet lives. Putin doesn't care about his people.....nor did Stalin. Tgey care about POWER
@Ikbeneengeit
2 ай бұрын
Russian citizens: "can the truth really be known, though?"
@andrewrossy
2 ай бұрын
the US was Damned if you do, damned if you don't. And agree in any normal democratic country there would be such outrage if a pre-warned attack went ahead - that the 'great leader' would be under such intense pressure. Meanwhile in business as usual Russia ...
@gzoechi
2 ай бұрын
@@Ikbeneengeit or "do we really want to know?"
when even Belarus does not buy your shit any more...
@SlotsxMyxThing
2 ай бұрын
Lol you can't ve serious... they are a puppet state of Russia
@baneofbanes
2 ай бұрын
@@SlotsxMyxThingLukashenko literally said that the terrorists were trying to get to Belarus, not Ukraine.
@bixbysnyder-00
2 ай бұрын
Putin is just a lonely delusional man at the end of a long table these days
@marcdc6809
2 ай бұрын
I think it was more a matter of national pride, we're the market leader in harbouring personae non grata of Moscow, we have the infrastructure.
@bixbysnyder-00
2 ай бұрын
@@marcdc6809 What national pride? Belarus is one decree from being annexed to Russia
Never let a disaster go to waste
@user-on2eq7eh4d
2 ай бұрын
ماقام بة نظام كييف بتخطيط الولايات المتحدة الأميركية الشيطان الأكبر وحلفائها الاشرار الناتو وشمال الاطلسي من عمل ارهابي إجرامي يدل على فشلهم الذريع في مواجهة روسيا الاتحادية العظمى 🇷🇺 أبن دولة اليمن مر من هنا 🇾🇪
@killobot2388
2 ай бұрын
@@user-on2eq7eh4d what is blud waffling on about
@worldwanderer91
2 ай бұрын
Never let a crisis go to waste - a certain Democrat
@cosmosofinfinity
2 ай бұрын
Same conspiracy nonsense is being applied to the Baltimore bridge crash
@ToneTraveler
2 ай бұрын
Just like Moscow false flags before second Chechen War
So contrary to Putin, Ukraine actually isn't Russia if the gunmen were trying to escape to Ukraine.
@bigfudge2031
2 ай бұрын
But if Ukraine is Russia according to Putin, that also means that Russia is Ukraine, so technically they could have been fleeing deeper into Russia.
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
What a brain dead analogy
@ffff7164
2 ай бұрын
“Ukraine’s doesn’t exist!” “Ukraine is responsible for the attack.”
The more Putin blames Ukraine, the more vulnerable he makes Moscow to, well, everyone else. Thanks for the video!
@Mortarion-xt9wp
2 ай бұрын
You're right. If he concentrates his attention on Ukraine and disregarding everything else he puts Russia in even more risk. The ISIS might for example attack again because they are getting ignored and the threat not taken seriously
@iSaidNo666
2 ай бұрын
Wrong
@MSDGroup-ez6zk
2 ай бұрын
@@Mortarion-xt9wp LOL not what the globalsouth see. 1. The USA has warned Russia but the CIA did not warn Americans when 911 happened. Why? 2. ISIS has never attacked the USA and Israel, why? 3. In Indonesia (not my country), the current USA ambassador has visited the Indonesia Prosperous Justice Party Headquarters. This party is the only Islam hardliner party in Indonesia. Turnp has also asked Germany and Japan to visit Petamburan, the headquarters of the Islam hardliner of the Islamic Defender Front (an NGO) that supports ISIS. 4. As per Aljazeera, the US embassy also warned Syria that there was a demonstration that would force Baasyar to step down. Unfortunately, Syria spy agents told the current Syria president that the USA was the mind master of that demonstration. This news has made Syria ask Russia for help.
@MSDGroup-ez6zk
2 ай бұрын
@@Mortarion-xt9wp the last reason is why the USA lied about Iraqi WMD?
@otectus2187
2 ай бұрын
@@MSDGroup-ez6zk Simple answer to number 1. 9/11 happened prior to the Patriot Act, establishment of NSA and Five Eyes. It jump-started the war on terror, but also the rapid build-up and modernization of US Intelligence. We are seeing the result of that. Western Intelligence is now unmatched because the NSA essentially has access to every device on the planet with an algorithm sifting through it ALL for any potential information of value to counter-terrorism operations and efforts. Likely also anything pertinent to other US interests, such as the war in Ukraine. This is why I believe Russia has struggled so but the fact remains... US Intelligence pre-9/11 was a baby compared to the behemoth it has been built into now.
O, before I forget. Someone mentioned you on another channel, Perun. It was a compliment because both of you offer us critical analysis without insulting our intelligence.
@pabloapostar7275
2 ай бұрын
Didn't Spaniel wisecrack a few videos back about his viewers watching videos where the voice over is in an Australian accent? Whatever the cheeky reference was, I did a double take thinking "he did a joke on Perun."
@meteorknight999
2 ай бұрын
Perun is kills your brain cells. That guy is full of cringe jokes pulled from reddit. Cringe smug and russia lost then the primates in comments cheer on him
@arthurmoore9488
2 ай бұрын
@@pabloapostar7275 Pretty sure it was a PowerPoint joke. Perun is proof that PowerPoint can be well done. Especially if you don't just read off the slides.
@laurakastrup
2 ай бұрын
@@pabloapostar7275there were also the whole market share economics with Perun moving in on his territory/market share and driving up competition but it being a net benefit for both of them
One point you did not bring up: The more Putin makes everything about Ukraine, the need for victory increases, and the fatality of setbacks increases. ISIS-K could be a scapegoat to blame a forced retreat from Ukraine on, but if all the eggs are in one basket, the state literally stands or falls on that issue.
@danielhale1
2 ай бұрын
@@aniksamiurrahman6365 lol! Somebody can't handle hypothetical if-then logic. Also... You guys, I found the Putin worshiper in the comments! This is adorable! Is there a prize for finding him?
@MrSivkar
2 ай бұрын
I also do not understand Ukraine is losing big time - but some just do not want to see it.... What boggles me why would ISI conduct terorist attack in Russia ??? To what end ? @@aniksamiurrahman6365
@danielhale1
2 ай бұрын
@@aniksamiurrahman6365
@DanJuega
2 ай бұрын
@@aniksamiurrahman6365 Putin worshippers when Ukraine doesn’t win the war in one day.
@marymarlow3646
2 ай бұрын
What about an intelligent response to his comment guys? It’s ironic. The Russian people probably don’t see the need to thwart ISIS, who just killed 137 of their private citizens, would warrant a retreat from Ukraine, but if Ukraine did it, that would be intolerable and no lengths would be too great.
ISIS: This was definitely us. Putin: Did you say US....A?
@whatwhatmeno
2 ай бұрын
Yeah because they're controlled by Israel, a month ago they attacked Iran and now they attack Russia
@JebacPresretac101
2 ай бұрын
"Corporate wants you to find the difference between these two images" "They are the same"
@ty.Tibor123
2 ай бұрын
😂
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
CIA created ISIS so yeah
@ToneTraveler
2 ай бұрын
ISIS; We did that Putin; Ukraine did that ISIS; Seriously? We just took responsibility for it AND threatened Russia publicly this time about another attack. Putin; I lock down Moscow and win sham election. Who will stop me? ISIS; Ok….wait for it.
There is a police station in the same complex as the theatre and a miitary base like 10 minutes away.
@newwonderer
2 ай бұрын
yet they arrived after 50 minutes, imagine that!
@sylviamaresca8852
2 ай бұрын
@@newwonderer more like an hour and 15 minutes
@TheDarksideFNothing
2 ай бұрын
Sorry original post was unnecessarily snarky. Edit: I think responders need time to prepare to engage with heavily armed gunmen, so you need to account for much more than just drive time Im not at all surprised nobody came from the military base. They might not even have personnel that are supposed to do that. I agree it's surprising that not even police showed up though. Like how was there NOBODY responding for so long?
@Fuck_YT
2 ай бұрын
@@TheDarksideFNothingbecause they knew, I've seen 2 FSB agents that were inside men during the attack, they didn't even try to disguise their faces, and they're all wearing the exact same setup
@alcoholfree6381
2 ай бұрын
Where were those guys? Playing Ping-Pong? The Police would have had to put ear plugs in to block out the sounds! How was that possible?
It must be simply exhausting for the kleptomaniac in the Kremlin to pretend he’s not a sociopath at times like this.
@bearcubdaycare
2 ай бұрын
I'm not convinced that he's trying to pretend that. Rather, I suspect that he's trying to establish a precedent of the people accepting that he's a sociopath, and falling into line anyway.
@Jszar
2 ай бұрын
My understanding is that part of the social contract between Russian elites and the general public is “if you funnel the sociopaths into politics, we’ll all backstab one another and leave the rest of you alone”. Whether that’s a *good* deal for the ordinary Russian isn’t mine to say.
You know, I work in a school for kids with behavioral issues. And the parallels are just uncanny.
@whitenoise8619
2 ай бұрын
Can you elaborate? I want to know
@andrewrossy
2 ай бұрын
Yes, please do ... really interested here
@-oysterthief4444
2 ай бұрын
Parallels to what?
@virginiatyree6705
2 ай бұрын
Bullies? Delusional thinking. What parallels are uncanny, pray tell-please. v
@Jszar
2 ай бұрын
Unchecked power isn’t good for the human psyche, let alone ability to make sound decisions.
It's honestly impressive, how fast you are able to produce such good videos. Love your great work, keep it going!
@andrewrossy
2 ай бұрын
EXACTLY! I went a searchin for Crocus analysis ... and came up with nothing much .... how you can formulate, write and produce such content in this timeframe is impressive!!!
@MSDGroup-ez6zk
2 ай бұрын
@@andrewrossy we call it propaganda just like it has happened in Vietnam and Iraqi WMD.
@eriks.9730
2 ай бұрын
@@MSDGroup-ez6zkComrade Bot, what is your point?
@virginiatyree6705
2 ай бұрын
@@eriks.9730, There just here to stir the pot. They're goof-balls. I think they get paid by the responses. v
@noahway13
2 ай бұрын
The enunciation would exhaust me.
*Pfft* A new Tunguska event could happen, and Putin would still blame Ukraine for it😅
@mandrac2
2 ай бұрын
Come on everybody know that ukraine is responsible for the death of dinosaurs, global warming, 14th century black death, hiroshima, the fall of babylon, 9/11, jar jar binks, covid 19, that one time you fell in lava with a full stack of diamond in your inventory, and both world war... among other things.
@gregoryturk1275
2 ай бұрын
Ukrainian Nazi Meteor Attack!
@steelytemplar
2 ай бұрын
At this rate, he'll blame Ukraine for the first one.
I hope youtube doesnt demonetize your video because of that tactical dog clip. It was a bit graphic.
@andrewrossy
2 ай бұрын
🤣
@virginiatyree6705
2 ай бұрын
😂😂😂😂...v
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
I'll report him for that since it's half assed yankee propaganda channel that needs to be censored anyway.
@ikp4success
2 ай бұрын
It was a recruitment video 😂
My hope is that the USA already decided to reveal their intelligence, but is just waiting for Russia to maximise its stupidity 😂
@debasismohanty1952
2 ай бұрын
Because Russia thinks they are ruling the world not usa
@MSDGroup-ez6zk
2 ай бұрын
LOL. ISIS has never attacked the USA and Israel. Russia is not that stupid.
@debasismohanty1952
2 ай бұрын
@@MSDGroup-ez6zkthey ignored the usa intelligence agency warning
@Korra228
2 ай бұрын
Dumbmaxxing 😭 Russia is a pro at that
@pflernak
2 ай бұрын
Russia will just claim its made up propaganda. "The guy whos testicles we electrocuted admitted to being sent by Zelenskyy"
My biggest fear is that with how successful the attack was, other terror organizations will see it and say to themselves “opportunity”
WEIRD.... "Men in blue" filming and yelling at the crowd to close the door, locking them in with the Shooters.... blue sweaters, blue jeans, combat wrist watches - No response for 90 minutes with security and armory in the adjacent building while civilians being shot - No response for 90 minutes from fire companies with the building burning - Waiting for the Shooters to leave before acting - Shooters travel public roads toward Belarus in the known car for 7 hours -- Shooters with specialized Kalashnikov 101 security service weapons - Putin not responding for 16 hours while apparently tracking events and public mood. WEIRD.... almost like Putin always wanted Russians to "Rally round the flag" and "allowed and encouraged" the attack.
@andrewrossy
2 ай бұрын
Yes, I saw that and tried to seach but not much. And I 'personally' think (no proof at all and will be slammed by the bots) that it is exactly as you say. Sure coincidences happen, but for things to align like this - means either they are responsible or otherwise are the most inept and useless counter terrorism force known.
@puraLusa
2 ай бұрын
Yup, but isis did show evidence that it was actually them. It's 🤷♀️🥴🤷♀️😩🥴 for the observer on the outside.
@chrishooge3442
2 ай бұрын
We saw the same thing at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Tx. Sometimes it's just stupidity and cowardice...not a conspiracy.
@Blondul11
2 ай бұрын
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
@Blondul11
2 ай бұрын
On this one it's not in Putin's interest for terror attacks to happen like that in Moscow. I don't think it was Putin.
Next step is to blame SBU for the sunset and the kidnapping of the sun?
@AquaticIdealist
2 ай бұрын
Zelensky's machinations are truly horrendous
@steffenc77
2 ай бұрын
@@AquaticIdealist Dont you agree? Whats next...?
@jack727dave5
2 ай бұрын
@@steffenc77I’ve heard Ukraine is plotting a massive thermal assault in a year or so. They plan on heavily reducing the temperature, increasing Ice formation and deploying snow to slow Russian troops. They call it operation “Winter”
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
head of SBU openly celebrated this in front of a journalist on camera and said Russia should prepare for more terror attacks like this. Yeah clearly Ukraine would never do this, i mean their nazi leadership is friends with american nazi leadership who are both at war with Russia, WHAT POSSIBLE MOTIVE WOULD THEY HAVE!? Especially after committing countless acts of terrorism prior to this, NO THIS DOES NOT SOUND LIKE CIA NAZI STRATEGY!
@corbeau-_-
2 ай бұрын
they also took bite out of moon
It seems odd for a country to try to motivate their population to fight in a war by saying, "Look at what the country we invaded did back to us after we attacked them without provocation!!!"
@Steelrat1994
2 ай бұрын
Because it is an appeal to hate, stupidity and most of all tribalism, not to rational thinking.
@GizzyDillespee
2 ай бұрын
So, instead of that, he says it's a special military operation to free Russians who were enslaved by not-sees. For the people who believe that narrative, then it makes sense to blame the same people for the concert wrecking. As far as the other side... where is Isis K supposed to be from? Are they a real group, not CIA, and the local people there are like, yep, it's them? If so, is it difficult for the people in Russia to find out that this group claims responsibility, and to see their video? Are Russians in general aware of Muslim grievances about Syria and Chechniya? I probably didn't spell that right... I assume Russians would know more than I do, about their military operations, but anything's possible. It seems like Putin would have an uphill battle in explaining to his people why the gunmen would be heading for his military's front lines ("escaping to Ukraine"), instead of going to Belarus, EU or south. Even the believers would have to suspend disbelief. My working theory is that the voting is over and done, so there is less motivation for explaining things, or for the explanations having to make sense.
@angelikaskoroszyn8495
2 ай бұрын
It worked with 9/11. Obviously then the situation was a little bit more complicated but the tragedy still allowed USA to introduce heavy surveillance to own citizens. Not to mention the forever wars
@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462
2 ай бұрын
Everyday people in music venues are not considered legitimate targets.
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
yeah without provocation...you make a good parrot repeating after Biden, except there's monumental evidence of Ukraine bombing donbas for 8 years after their government was overthrown by CIA in 2014 and had a nazi leadership installed. You have to be literally brain dead to think Russia would just randomly attack ukraine without provocation, gatto be REEEEEEEAL stupid.
This is the most professional analysis of this conflict currently
@virginiatyree6705
2 ай бұрын
100% agreed! v
I would like to point out that warning perhaps was not "early" as many have said... But instead, since the warning was made public... Maybe they simply chose another date, time and place for the attack.
@PrograError
2 ай бұрын
nah, more to gather intel
Thank You!
@Gametheory101
2 ай бұрын
You are welcome, Sir First Commenter.
@MSDGroup-ez6zk
2 ай бұрын
@@Gametheory101 LOL you gain money from selling lies called propaganda. A simple question to you, why has ISIS never attacked the USA and Israel. Definitely, Russia is not stupid.
@virginiatyree6705
2 ай бұрын
@@Gametheory101, You're the best! Thanks for posting & all your efforts; appreciate. v
Never let a tragedy go to waste.
@pabloapostar7275
2 ай бұрын
Is that a Dick Cheney quote?
This is like the comic when Putin is riding a bicycle and then stucks ISIS-K into his front wheel and falls down.
@mandrac2
2 ай бұрын
"Fucking ukraine!"
You have a talent for breaking things down to make complicated issues very easy to understand
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
all he does is parrot propaganda, good to know chewed up fake news is so digestible for you. 1 look at yankee propaganda and i saw right through it, must be superior Russian genetics, can't get fooled by stuff meant to fool retar- you know.
I absolutely love your videos. I watch them as soon as they release. You are simply the best! Also: you are hands down the funniest political commentator out there. Don’t think for a second your jokes aren’t landing! It’s like lines on maps (ponder that one for a moment)
Thanks! I just love your content
@Gametheory101
2 ай бұрын
Thank you so much! Very generous.
What a huge "I told you so" moment
Just wanted to say thank you for always having relevant information for me to learn from.
William Spaniel for your weekly "Lines on Thoughts"
Genuinely thank you for posting the dog video instead of the actual one. Anyone who actually wants to see that can find it for themselves.
@aceice8216
2 ай бұрын
I cant, where do you find that kind of videos anyway
@major_kukri2430
2 ай бұрын
@@aceice8216i first saw it on telegram, but I'd actually warn against watching it.
@virginiatyree6705
2 ай бұрын
@aceice8216, Keep looking. It's out there. v
@virginiatyree6705
2 ай бұрын
Hey martinharttefc, Same. Who really needs to see the s***. Those people are insane. v
@virginiatyree6705
2 ай бұрын
Hey martinharttefc, Same. Who really needs to see that s***. Those people are insane & are seriously brainwashed. v
Always cool when you make a video on recent developpments and it shows their relevence.
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
except this channel is propaganda and you're just being fed lies.
@telperinquarcurufinyelde1597
2 ай бұрын
What do you mean? Do you have an example?
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
@@telperinquarcurufinyelde1597 That would require yet another look at this video, not doing that. Personally all this yankee propaganda just never took off for me, shitty lies just don't fool me. But If you actually struggle to see through the bs, go watch some channel that brings credible people on the show that can explain the basics, that way when someone tries to explain stuff above the basics, you immediately know when they're lying, because they can't even get the basic stuff right. Colonel Macgregor, Scott Ritter, those are the people who actually know what they're talking about.
Awesome analysis, you always know how to put lines to good use.
@andrewrossy
2 ай бұрын
😂
The U.S literally warned Russia and blame the U.S 😂
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
That's not what John Kirby said. You've been fooled because you are very easy to fool.
@chargingcommando67
2 ай бұрын
@@Proxymatedwho tf is John Kirby?
Your T's are murdering my ears. But I endure, your videos are worth it.
I don't know how to say, but the joy that comes from what you did to my head is bejond priceless! - and it's even for free... Thank you so much for educating us!
@ChA0s_AgeNt
2 ай бұрын
lol Bludder werkin' that thang like a speed-bag, huh?
Cant we all just get along? Or on the other side..Where is that meteor we where all promissed...😮
William, you're the best. I took the time to read through the responses and mainly you have sane humans commenting politely. Lucky U. Thanks for posting. v
This is exactly the type of video I like about this channel. Graphical explanations of difficult theories make the world that bit more understandable to us ! Thank you
Great video as usual. Many thanks, you are the best.
Thank you Dr Spaniel. Excellent work. I really like the analysis of the Russian distortion.
@tommythompson7941
2 ай бұрын
Do you know if he critiques film?
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
All you did was inhale yankee propaganda. How gullible you are.
@Mortablunt
2 ай бұрын
But distortion, you mean quest for the truth, rather than the Nazi lover cover-up!
What an excellent analysis ... thankyou.
Thank you for your well-thought-out, informative videos.
Lovely to see game theory being played out in such an interesting way.
Thanks for the lesson, sir. You're a regular dose of critical thinking.
As always great informative videos.
Thank-you William, I did not find anyone hanging around in today's video.
On point.. As always 🙂
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
on point yankee propaganda straight from the ass of uncle sam
+1 for extending the "lines on maps" theme to creative "lines on graphs". (though not the first time) It does help to visualize the stakes and the effects of choices. It's funny how a statement like "a picture sais more than a thousand words" often suggests a photo or drawing, but personally I prefer a good graph with well defined axes over any amount of text.
You've seen lines on maps, now get ready for... Lines on Lines.
Thanks. Always a pleasure learning from you.
@lori2364
2 ай бұрын
Wow, you listened to a 19 minutes video i less than 1!
@KenVet
2 ай бұрын
I speed-read also@@lori2364
@KenVet
2 ай бұрын
Thanking for the prior vids while watching. I also speed-read.@@lori2364
What types of math would you use to rigorously tackle this type of analysis/modeling? Would you consider 2nd, 3rd or higher order effects? Or is what you presented about as far as we can go with the limited info available? Thank you for sharing this model, very interesting to see how you think about it.
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
calm down COD sergeant, this is just yankee propaganda.
@Henry-yf2np
2 ай бұрын
@@Proxymated?
Great video, your insights really are a game changer for a person like me.
I came for the Ukrainian/Russian conflict analysis, and stayed for the beginner's introduction to game theory. Thank you, professor Spaniel!
Thanks
@Gametheory101
2 ай бұрын
Thank you!
Came here to hear about your book.
@davidl.7317
2 ай бұрын
😅😅😂
@virginiatyree6705
2 ай бұрын
Me 😂😂😂 too! Here to hear about his book. v
Thank you!
Excellent work
I believe Russian intelligence was faulty when they underestimated the strength of Ukraine....and here we we go again blaming the wrong group.
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
you're literally a bot aren't you
Counties should take the intelligence seriously usa or not
@khlaps
2 ай бұрын
Especially, US intelligence. It is currently the most reliable and well funded intelligence organization in the world.
Great program
Love your videos
They tried to climb Himalaya toward Ukraine.
When the MW2 storyline starts to become reality. Remember, no Russian.
Yes. Another video!
thank you!
I can see how the "exposure cost" may or may not be worth compromising the sources...huh...ty for the content.
@stevenrix7024
2 ай бұрын
I was wondering whether more time since the attack means more time for the CIA to get its sources out of Russia, therefore more likely to reveal what it knew and how/when (in order to strengthen credibility).
@richardtabor8686
2 ай бұрын
I'm sure we'll find out on a Friday news dump soon. Love the theory behind your thoughts there. Great perspective embedded in there.
I was waiting for the exception: "You do not need to warn the victim, if you are the one who intends to do the strike". Looks like they missed that one.
Thanks William
Excellent William
NEGLIGENCE, criminal NEGLIGENCE and INCOMPETENCE, that is the minimum way to characterize the posture of Putin and the FSB for not taking any measure to prevent the terrorist attack.
@puraLusa
2 ай бұрын
They had prevented one just a week before. It's 😩🥴 confusing.
@pflernak
2 ай бұрын
Preventing that stuff is not exactly easy. Especially when youre focusing on a war. And they are finally calling it a war.
@JoaoCosta-pn9im
2 ай бұрын
@@pflernak I agree. Preventing it would be difficult, but minimizing it was very well possible with very simple measures such as metal detectors on (they were switched off) and a small team of properly armed policemen, visible at the entrance of the venue and in some strategic places, as we regularly see in European airports and train stations. Putin, FSB and the police did nothing. Negligent, there is no better word for qualifying all of them.
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
John Kirby said there was no terrorist attack coming. Then it happens and US immediately blames ISIS with no evidence. But it's easy to fool stupid people who can't read, i know.
There was a special police K9 unit in the adjoining building just 200m away, search Отдел полиции микрорайона Павшино and it will show up. What about the men in blue? What 5000USD terrorists buys the most expensive AK103, a gun very hard to get? What police takes over 1 hour + to show up?
@ByZHellas
2 ай бұрын
Uvalde PD
@anthonykaiser974
2 ай бұрын
@@ByZHellas we all knew that answer was forthcoming.
@andrewrossy
2 ай бұрын
When you look at Uvalde PD and yes 100% correct there, what they did was the same. That is in a country town of 15K people. It is not a city, a capital city, a capital city of a wannabe Superpower (ok going too far).
@user-zz8lb6bd7p
2 ай бұрын
Uvalde the officers took a long time to go inside, not arrive. It would have been impossible for the shooter to stroll out, pass a police station and then drive off.
The dog video is, in fact, a better video. Thank you for sharing it with us.
Very good show.
William Spaniel is basically teaching us game theory without bring up the words "game theory".
@Gametheory101
2 ай бұрын
Oops, I have been found out
I❤USA!
Thanks for the prime directive
Interesting new setup with lines on lines this video
Only REAL question is did putler PAY isisk to do it ? or did they do it independently ? . . . . .
IS is jumping up and down claiming it, they don't understand WTF... how Ruzzia keeps saying it was Ukraine and USA. Well, IS... you're such a newbie... welcome to the Vranyo Federation!
@Steelrat1994
2 ай бұрын
I mean, as William said, it is in ISIS interest to claim responsibility. That's how they recruit. They could've claimed it just for the giggles. More recruits without any actual involment = easy win.
nice dog video, appreciate it
Thanks.
Ty
Good reporting, as usual. Thank you. Go Democracy.
Wake up babe, new William Spaniel upload
Man, you love lines!!
❤ thank you 🙏 my Personal political analyst... Very good 👍 reporting indeed
The US: It was ISIS. The EU: It was ISIS. The UK: It was ISIS. Ukraine: It was ISIS. Qatar: It was ISIS. India: It was ISIS. Israel: It was ISIS. ISIS: It was us. Pootin: It has to be Ukraine. You can't even make this shit up anymore. Pootin would blame Ukraine if he had a tummy ache at this point. Can't imagine ISIS is happy about this either.
@yurichtube1162
2 ай бұрын
It wasn't ISIS. It was the CIA, MI6, MOSSAD and SBU. Victoria Nuland is behind this, but she was forced to resign after being discovered. Seems like she planned for this to happen without consulting anyone else. A true psychopath.
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
CIA: CREATES ISIS America: HURRR IT WAS ISIS NO INVESTIGATION NEEDED America: LITERALLY CREATED ISIS.
@luke2r2r
2 ай бұрын
@@Proxymated USA has has some interessts in monitoring terrorists after 2001. This is why the U.S has good intell on terrorist plans. Russia is also an enemy of Isis, USA is not everyones main focus. And with Russia doing more to monitir if its own population is saying something negative about Putin and the war, thats why Russia was easy for Isis to enter
@rayankhatib8352
2 ай бұрын
@@Proxymated Not to mention that ISIS literally has US Humvees
back in 2015, director of national intelligence james clapper, clapped some cheeks
Means and sources are more important than the intel itself. Never saw it presented that way though! COOL!
We finally have a video without lines on maps, but now we changed it to arrows on lines
Putin is the most obsessed leader of a country since WW II. Obsessed with an assumed glorious Russia of the past, obsessed with 'seeing' foreign enemies everywhere, obsessed with Ukraine and obsessed with his legacy. The US being better informed about terrorist threats within Russia than RU itself, further feeds Putin's obsessions, possibly to the point of pure fatalism.
@arau8310
2 ай бұрын
True, but you did not include information control in your list of putler's "obsessions". he's only powerful if the people allow him to be. By obsessively controlling the media / narrative within russia- the influence western media has on the population will also be limited.
I wish the CIA was as powerful as some deluded people think they are
Instant like crew 👍🏻
The intel cost section is one of the most interesting points I have seen raised on KZread this month!
Lets be honest USA 🇺🇸 intelligence works 😂 like it or not!!!!
@Proxymated
2 ай бұрын
yeah i mean CIA created ISIS so of course they know who did it when CIA obviously did it.
Nice lesson. What about the possibility that UKR was, in fact, behind the attack? Personally, I think it's a miniscule probability, but your analysis completely ignores it, and even a small likelihood could affect the rest of your calculations.