You did it Mary! You led.

@thesolarfutureenthusiast1102

5 ай бұрын

And it matters

@michaelkim3432

5 ай бұрын

Can't believe her comp level for basically doing nothing. She made $29MM last year between salary, stock options and bonuses!! Great job Mary!

@john-dextertecson3688

5 ай бұрын

🤣

@citibear57

5 ай бұрын

Bring back the old (famous) GM logo. The new one is sh*t, but hey, I guess that kind of sums up a lot of things at GM.

@roryreddog3258

5 ай бұрын

No she Lied 🤨

BMW, Lexus, and Toyota lost me 4 years ago when I switched to Tesla. I'm never going back. Hate the dealerships being a top reason.

@jamesparker1071

5 ай бұрын

Tesla?..... 👏👏🏼👏🏿.... 🥱

@gianvisentin1232

5 ай бұрын

We will see in the future! Tesla is not doing well either! They got too many cars and not selling! Not to mention they have screwed so many of their customers with the cut off prices that most of them are pissed off! And not many will buy a Tesla just for that reason, today they are worth $40,000 new, tomorrow they are $30,000 new! Not to mention the used market has crashed on the teslas! I would never buy a Tesla! And I been driving electric now for 4 years. It’s just too volatile of a company! I have friends that lost tons of money on their used teslas, and the switched cause they will just be worth less and less! If Tesla was based in any other country in the world, it would have been bankrupt a long time ago!

@hwirtwirt4500

4 ай бұрын

These dealers have a lot of nerve charging 10K for a rust covering wrap! Oh, never mind that's Tesla.

@toyotaprius79

4 ай бұрын

Don't overlook Aptera

Going to take an awful lot of incentives to drag me into a showroom....

@ArthurZakaryan23

5 ай бұрын

Incentives are one aspect but the kind of things I care for in a car like driving enjoyment is for the most part non-existent in the majority of mainstream non luxury performance brands. The only non-luxury performance brand I know of that builds their cars still with driving enjoyment in mind is Mazda which I'd take over a rival brand any day but they aren't immune from having to raise prices to stay afloat.

@wolfgangpreier9160

5 ай бұрын

@@ArthurZakaryan23Mazda? The most inefficient cars? Really? You must be a very rich person.

@jamesvandamme7786

5 ай бұрын

@@wolfgangpreier9160I drive a CX-5 and it's a great car. But next one will be an EV. Mazda may not last that long.

@mystere485

4 ай бұрын

@@wolfgangpreier9160what are you basing this on? My wife’s 2015 cx5 gets as good fuel economy as my 2000 auto trans civic. Sure, parts are a lot more, but not anymore expensive for day to day running costs.

@wolfgangpreier9160

4 ай бұрын

@@mystere485 A Mazda RX8 Wankel engine burns 13 liters of gazoline for 100km. Even my old VW Caddy with double the weight only used 6 liter of Diesel. Mazda MX30 is a bit better @ 8,6 Liter. Mine use ZERO, NADA, NONE. Thats the correct fuel economy. In the US you will still get parts. In Europe those are getting rare and expensive. Older VWs and Fords still get parts, but most of the middle aged - 10-15 year old have massive parts problems.

Vehicle sales have declined because of: (1) Demographic changes which have resulted in a smaller cohort of the vehicle buying age group; (2) the "younger generation" has been taught to use public transportation/Lyft/Uber/Ridesharing systems instead of driving their own vehicle; (3) the automakers' constant increases in the price of vehicles which have outpaced inflation of workers' wages have priced many people out of the new vehicle market; (4) the legacy automakers constant increases in the physical sizes of the vehicles they sell have also resulted in price increases that outpaced inflation; (5) the Detroit Three automakers have stopped making and marketing sedans on the whole, and instead concentrate only on trucks and SUVs. Given these factors, is it any wonder that people have stopped buying the products offered for sale by the legacy OEMs?

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

#4 is due to the constant increases in the size of the occupants. Cars have increased with the obesity rate. #5 Detroit stopped making cars because trucks have higher profit margins. And you left out #6, which is that cars simply last longer than they used to.

It really looks like the shrink was intentional. In the US Ford has only one car, the Mustang. There is no way they expected to expected to maintain market share with just SUVs and Trucks. That was a short term profit decision and I don't think they will turn back. They did this deliberately.

@TheBooban

5 ай бұрын

Which is good if they did it to transition to EVs. Don’t know if that was the plan, but the EV part isn’t working out anyways.

A somewhat interesting view which left out a key element about customers. The consumer has been in a downward spiral by not keeping up with inflation. My personal example between 1980 & 2005 (when I retired) is that the only real increase came with changing to higher paying position as income lost to inflation over that period by 2-5% while the cost of a new car increased at or above the inflation rate over the same period. When the consumer is strangled financially, discretionary spending goes down. The consumer went from driving full sized sedans & pickups to mid-sized or compact versions & stretched out the replacement cycle time. In a consumer driven economy, when the consumer has less discretionary income what would you expect? As the consumer has been pinched by wages which have not kept up with inflation, management, particularly CEO pay has increased a stratospherically rate. The loss of customer base is not surprising at all.

@TheLetsboogiedown

5 ай бұрын

This comment encapsulates so many concepts that the mainstream media will not bring to light. Thank you for your perspective

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

The 1980s were a period of exceptionally high inflation, which skews the average. From 2000 to 2021, interest rates were extremely low, due to a stupid FED. My last car was purchased with a 1% loan rate. Also, loans have become longer, which has allowed people to buy more expensive vehicles, loaded up with every option imaginable. Hardly anyone buys the base models anymore.

I pulled out some financial metrics from an old GM shareholder letter for 1980. Adjusted for inflation, GM has less revenue today than it had in 1979. They managed a modest growth of revenue until 1997, then were stagnant until 2006 after which their revenue collapsed. By 2011 GM had partially recovered, but since then have reversed to near their historic inflation adjusted lows.

@Dularr

5 ай бұрын

Yep, post oil embargo. Japanese imports. 2007/2008 great recession. Pandemic.Climate change regulation.

@mattvanbrocklin4930

4 ай бұрын

They were #1 globally in 2016 with just over 10M units were #5 at 6M in 2023

@johnbyers3439

4 ай бұрын

Don't forget in 1979 the big three were handed a $7,000 per car hand out when the government put a $7,000 tariff on all imports to help US car sales. But instead of selling cars at a $7,000 advantage as intended, they raised every US car price by $7,000 and the US consumer got screwed.

Peak gasoline use in the USA also peaked in 2019

An interesting few years ahead of us in automotive.

@frankcoffey

5 ай бұрын

I think EVs and battery technology are going to get better at an amazing rate. ICE has topped out and don't have room to get better. That 100 mile per gallon car never happened and now it's too late even if it could be done.

@toyotaprius79

4 ай бұрын

Have you not noticed the unseasonable weather and collapse of stable climates? The car industry would be lucky to survive as it does now in 15 years before 2040

Thanks, John! Agreed on your observations....China is busy squeezing out foreign OEM's and China had been a growth sector for all of them for a decade...not anymore. They insist on hanging onto their IC assets which are not growing. In truth, within 5 years US new car sales will be 40% EV, with EU closer to 60%. The only "growth market" in automotive is electric cars with BYD, Tesla, KIA/Hyundai and the luxury marks betting all their money on electric. You mentioned the war for market share? There isn't going to be any market share left for the big three.

The big boys in the U S have shrunk the middle class, they purchased the autos, if you create more middle class you will increase auto sales. How many people that work for Walmart or Amazon can purchase new cars???

@TheLetsboogiedown

5 ай бұрын

Exactly this

@WAN2TREE4

5 ай бұрын

To be fair, GM and Ford have to finance their retirement funds to keep your old ex-middle class folks alive instead of spending all that money in new technology. That is what happens if you don't allow Amazon and Walmart workers to unionize. Those big corporations will just keep sending all their profits to their already rich shareholders and raise theirr CEOs' pay instead of raising their workers' pay. And that's how the wealth gap widens. Unbridled capitalism at its best.

I wish I could think of a company that makes compelling cars with zero emissions, that is growing exponentially, and has 10 % profit margins, that is also producing cars and AI technology, with robot application in the future, all in the USA. But the big guy wants the union's vote lol

@tomasjohansson8255

5 ай бұрын

I have One at home, but manufactured in China, I had to wait for that, now they are made in Berlin also, it is a Tesla Model Y. I am from Europe.

@trumpisastump9382

4 ай бұрын

The "big guy" wants American workers to receive middle-class wages to support an economy that works for everyone.

It's certainly transforming. It's much like it was pre WWII. Many independents and emerging technologies. Battle between electric & ICE engines was going on back then too. It will be very interesting to see what happens in the next 5 years. My consumer confidence is at an all time low. Our economic & political climate is extremely volatile.

@stianjohansen9281

5 ай бұрын

Agree

@martinbeaumier7172

5 ай бұрын

Everything will crash as we enter a new age

@DishNetworkDealerNEO

5 ай бұрын

@@martinbeaumier7172 ice will crash as BEVs replace them. They will be better in many ways, and worse in a few ways, but doable!

Very well done John, I value your opinion!! Thanks!

The other trend working against automakers is present and future population declines. Populations in China, Japan, and Europe are declining and aging. The population in the US and Canada would be declining except for immigration. Even in India, birth rates are barely at replacement, setting up population declines in the near future. This is actually a problem for future growth of most corporations. But, it could be very good for the general standard of living as resources become cheaper and labor prices increase.

@jeffmeyers2106

5 ай бұрын

We are going to need robots to make up the difference in the population decline.

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

Except for the fact that robots will replace human labor.

Excellent summary thanks John!

The cost of living for so many people now means that new cars are far less obtainable. Maybe if we saw profit margins and wealth distribution being a little more balances, we'd see things change.

@larryevans6739

5 ай бұрын

Or engineer cars to be less expensive. You can get a PHEV BYD Qin Plus in China that is better equipped than an entry-level Corolla in the US for less than half the price... IMO, the largest contributor to that is the largest R&D engineering force of any manufacturer. Despite the rhetoric, subsidies per BEV/PHEV are a fraction of the US. And BYD also had 25% automotive gross margin last year-- higher than Legacy and Tesla. If Legacy eliminates their smaller margins, they still will not be cost competitive.

@shanelen

5 ай бұрын

extremely over-priced = low sales, consumers purchasing $80k cars = stupidity

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

@@larryevans6739 BYD makes about $1k profit per car. Tesla makes about $8k. Also, comparing the price of a Chinese car to American car is apples to oranges. Chinese average income is about $10k.

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

Spoken like a true socialist

@TheLetsboogiedown

5 ай бұрын

The big 3's legacy customers (the middle class) are being erased... That's why they will be failing as well

JM, do an analysis of vehicle weight and options over time vs the sales. As vehicle unit sales fell, the factories (really primarily the dealers demanded) larger vehicles and more options. Consumers just don't have the cash these days to take on $90k debt for a work truck. Compare a 60s F100 to the modern F150 .. Product complexity kills companies. And there is so much complexity from models to options.

Sadly, it is not just vehicle prices that have gotten insane. When I was a kid in the 1970's, a one income household could own two cars, a home, and raise two kids. During the 1980's, you have to have one good full-time income and a part-time income to support the same thing. In the 1990's you have had to have one really good full-time income and an okay full-time income in a household to support the same thing. When the 2000's hit, you have to have one great job full-time income and one good job full-time income and by 2010's, if you did not have one great job and one really good job income, you can kiss off supporting what many would call the classic middle class life. The cost of housing, medical, food, has all out paced income for most Americans. I know over the past ten years I have seen more households cutting back to one vehicle just due to costs. Even if vehicle prices come down, gas prices are high and insurance prices are high. The most realistic way for builders to survive is simplification. Fewer parts, fewer brands, few models, and few jobs. They have to be aggressive about doing that now, not next decade. This is why I feel like the wage increases the UAW got will feel kind of hollow when half as many of those jobs are around when we hit 2030.

@zeitgeistx5239

5 ай бұрын

That’s because your car/truck is made in Mexico. Ford currently export Chinese made Fords.

@kevtheobald

5 ай бұрын

@@zeitgeistx5239For me personally, I bought a Model 3 last year, so mine one of the most US based cars based on parts and labor you could buy. This theory of having vehicles being made in Mexico causing the price issues and national issues is just too small of a slice of a pie of many more issues. The US has reached new records levels of wealth, just the majority of the new wealth has gone to the 1%. The problem is government leadership, as in US Congress and a two party monopoly. Until that is fixed, elites will control the nation and chaos will just get worse.

@rok1475

5 ай бұрын

At the peak of American middle class prosperity period the corporate tax rate was the highest in history. Those high corporate taxes paid for the infrastructure, healthcare, education, military, etc so it was possible for a single income earner to buy a house, support the family and educate their children. As corporate taxes decreased and tax avoidance became easier, the middle class has been loaded with paying for the infrastructure, military, education and healthcare, but the entire middle class class can’t contribute as much as the corporations used to so things fall apart. Short of a revolution led by Bernie Sanders there is no way to reverse this trend.

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

@@rok1475 your "facts" are nonsense. The last thing we need is more socialism. Middle class tax rates are the lowest they have ever been. Almost half of Americans pay zero federal income tax.

@trumpisastump9382

4 ай бұрын

@@darylfoster7944 The taxes on the most wealthy in the US have declined precipitously from a marginal rate of 94% down to the current 37%. This, along with the reductions in the corporate tax rates of 53% down to the current 21%, is why the middle class pays a larger share of the national tax burden. In your cute little post you (purposely???) failed to provide those specifics as they tend to defy your point. The devil is in fact in the details.

Legacy is what you leave behind when you die.

interesting breakdown, I have a feeling the ones that go after the emerging markets will win long term.

So informative, thanks!

Thank you for the information; it was very interesting. It sounds like the American companies must learn to compete or die.

Make fewer cars that are quality rather than many cars that are garbage.

@phileasler5401

5 ай бұрын

All newer cars are excellent now days

"Quality is job 1!" Recalls are job 0.7

@LWRC

5 ай бұрын

Except for Toyota, no US manufacturer has any quality!!!

@magnusauto7941

4 ай бұрын

@@LWRCYou sure about that? Can you back that up with numbers?

@LWRC

4 ай бұрын

@@magnusauto7941 Why is it so hard to figure out??!!! Kind of astounding people even ask this and even say back it up with numbers!!!

An ever-changing world.

@toyotaprius79

4 ай бұрын

And dying too

Terrific analysis, John. Nailed it.

Until someone sells a large sedan, I'm not buying crap. I love my Impala GM. You blew a lifetime customer. I'm never buying a truck, crossover, or SUV. I'm too tall for standard midsize sedans.

@sparky6592

5 ай бұрын

Have you ever driven a Tesla Model S? It's pretty large.

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

You're an exception, and the market doesn't cater to exceptions

Excellent insight, John. we are into a new awaking in the automotive industry... Some would call this chapter an automobile revolution, and Tesla is in key position to becoming the major disrupter... !!

Insightful commentary, thanks again - hard to get the real picture with all the marketing hype, mis/disinformation out there. It looks like Legacy Auto is pivoting to hybrids as a way to keep profits up and qualify for subsidies at least here in the US. All one hears about lately is how Hybrids are a necessary part of the EV transition and now maybe even the future (until hydrogen). Given the capabilities of current EVs this narrative is completely false for most people - the stats bear this out.

@ForzaJersey

5 ай бұрын

Powertrain Electrification is inevitable but, EVs with super-sized batteries are not. The BEV marketing hype bubble is bursting and that's a good thing for consumers and BEVs in the long run. Hybrids are the logical next step. Hybrids are a faster and less capital-intensive way to decarbonize the automobiles themselves. It also buys BEVs time to mature their batteries until MW fast chargers become ubiquitous.

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

Hydrogen cars are not the future.

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

@@ForzaJersey BEV sales grew 40% last year. That's hardly a bursting bubble. Hybrids are ICE cars.

But I thought Tesla was just a joke and they will never get to scale. And now they are the most profitable, most valuable, and fastest growing automaker on the planet.

@WAN2TREE4

4 ай бұрын

Hype. Last week I saw 3 Teslas on the side of the freeway. I did not pay much attention to it because it's been raining here in CA. But today i saw 2 with flashing lights, 680 south bound. I'm thinking these incidents haven't shown in any data yet but seeing that many Teslas disabled hopefully is not a trend.

@zeitgeistx5239

Ай бұрын

The Tesla fanboy living in his moms basement worshipping a white supremacist South African

Over time most brands, relatively, improved quality so due to new car cost most people can now keep their cars longer, and the ones on the used market are in better shape and have a longer life. Much easier now to get a used car that is really well equipped and those new vehicles just aren't very appealing except for the high income buyers that always need the next shiny thing.

@rp9674

5 ай бұрын

Interesting analysis, used car market is a big part of it although it doesn't directly fund auto makers

When looking at sales volumes vs sales $’s, world vehicle sales volumes actually peaked in 2017 and the U.S peaked in 2016. If you segregate unit sales between electric vehicles and ICE (internal combustion engine including non plug-in hybrids) vehicles, things look much worse for ICE vehicles. World ICE vehicles peaked in 2017 @93.2 million vehicles and in 2023 there were only 72.9 million ICE vehicles sold which is a 22% decline. 10 years ago in 2014 ICE sales were 87.1 million units or about 20% higher then they were in 2023. The last time ICE sales were as low as they were in 2023 & 2022 was during the recession in 2008 & 2009. Meanwhile electric vehicle sales were 0.3 million in 2014 and 13.7 million in 2023 a growth of 4,466%. Since 2019 (prior to Covid) electric vehicle sales have grown over 500% in the last 4 yrs.

Most people drive fewer miles due to work from home employment and Amazon deliveries. I used to drive 18K miles per yea; last year I drove only 5K miles. My 12 year old car runs fine and it is paid for. I won't need another one for a ling time. I'll bet many people have a similar story. Remember, the customer doesn't give a damn about your problem. He only cares about his own problem.

Awesome. Thanks

I now live in a golf cart community and thus can get by with only one car and use the golf cart for lots of errands. Many neighbors have gotten rid of the extra vehicle also. Add in how much auto insurance is now, and having multiple vehicles gets difficult.

@michaelsheedy

5 ай бұрын

Ford Pro is probably Ford's future. They are monetizing the hell out of it. Retail vehicles will be a smaller and smaller part of Ford's future. Or so it seems as the Asians continue to dominate that segment. The commercial truck/van/open chassis is where Ford shines with good growth prospects.

@michaelsheedy

4 ай бұрын

Throughout the warm weather states, golf cart accessible communities are spreading meaning a golf cart becomes a second car, especially for retirees. Golf carts used to be for golf only, but not anymore.

The paradigm has shifted!

I like such direct and simple comparisons that don't show the exact details, but the result and give a good feeling of how the market is doing

Excellent video

It's that voo-doo economics! people buying fewer cars because now they are TWICE as much (and half as good).

@gregkramer5588

5 ай бұрын

I have driven quite a few newer cars and I think they are really good!

@domjohnson2579

5 ай бұрын

And why do you think that is? It's because they are forced to pay union workers for LESS productivity. This last deal the unions forced upon the manufacturers will be the final death nail. Looks good on those greedy unions making costs for us higher because they want to get paid more with no additional work. The makers are forced to skimp on quality as a result.

@williammeek4078

5 ай бұрын

@@gregkramer5588now compare a 2014 car at 10 years old to a 1964 car at 10 years old

@ryansmithc

5 ай бұрын

Most cars nowadays easily last past 200-300k miles and have way better base features. Better than ever imo

@okcmoparguy724

5 ай бұрын

Agree with the exception of HD diesel trucks. Their reduced reliability is mainly due to emissions equipment though.

This presentation is brilliant! I will hold my money until I see best offer on product I’m in market to buy..

Superb analysis, in particular with mature markets. The very interesting point is if you look at global LV sales from 2008/09 crisis onwards, they increase from about 65 million to almost 95 million in 2018. Then 2019 slowdown and 2020 crash. Never recovered since and as the industry is transitioning from ICE to EV, doubtful that we'll see an overall surge in growth anytime soon.

Well done JOE today, John. Thank you.

There is a lot of discussion of Legacy Manufacturers... Maybe we should also start thinking about Legacy Markets.

New car prices stalled from year 2000 to mid 2010.

Consumers demanding huge performance and luxury vehicles are to blame Auto manufacturers going after short-term profits are to blame. As automakers wimp out on EV production & emissions maybe we should bring in Chinese manufacturers to show how it's done, let the others sink or swim, they had their chance

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

The bean counters are running the show at Ford and GM. They don't want to subsidize $30k per vehicle losses on EVs until they can figure out how to make them efficiently.

More and more people are realizing that buying a new gas car is a losing proposition. By the time you pay it off it will be worth a LOT less because the EV Disruption will be in full swing by then. And the cost of fuel is likely to double by then as well.

I really don't see legacy OEMs as they exist today to survive another decade if we don't see some drastic changes. Like John said, either they need to push very high volume in less profitable emerging markets to carry them where they aren't growing in mature markets or they need to adopt new manufacturing techniques that will cost less without sacrificing quality and they can pass some of those savings to consumers. One of the last ditch efforts will be to merge with another OEM or at least partner on more technologies and various models to share the expense of building out new models. The future for legacy OEMs is a very unknown one, looks pretty bleak right now.

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

The reason their futures look bleak is because they refuse to take a short term profit hit in order to subsidize EV losses until they can figure out how to make EVs profitably. They will end up like Kodak, selling an outdated technology and going broke.

We think sometimes that we couldn’t live without a certain brand. That if a major brand went out of business it would be a catastrophe when in reality it happens all the time and the world keeps on spinning. If Ford or GM disappear it’ll all get sorted out. My parents were die hard Sears & Kmart shoppers, and now mainly shop at Walmart or Amazon. Adapt or die but No more bailouts!!

The auto market is shrinking period, claiming it's only legacy car companies is caused by John's shrinking brain.

Love ya John. Always doomsday kinda stories. 🤣👍

Wealth transfer. The main market for cars, the middle class, is melting as we know. Record sales for Bently, Lamborghini, and other high end cars though! When the Japanese cars forced the American market into lower priced automobiles it forced innovation and progress of the whole industry. Every player in the car industry slowly forced his own part up in price. The market should be calling the shots when un impared but regulations, trade unions finance and insuirance each got their good reason to make cars mor expensive. Where is the consumer's interest in all this? We don't need more expensive, more complicated more unreparable cars. We need affordable, well engineered cars that don't require multi thousands of dollar repairs due to pennies components failing. But hwo will come up with this fixeable, affordable, insurable and desirable car?

@gregkramer5588

5 ай бұрын

These inexpensive cars exist but just do not sell that great. The Chevy Trax is now a great low cost vehicle as an example.

@baronvonjo1929

5 ай бұрын

The Chevy Trax has a miserable 3 banger that will not last. Plus several people have had issues with them. Saw a review where the windows literally stopped working. I saw one irl with broken drl already. That whole headlight will have to be replaced. Affordable, reliable, quality cars are not to be found with domestic automakers.

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

Cars are better quality and last longer than ever before. This nostalgia about a bygone mythical past of prosperity is nonsense.

I’m well off but I refuse to use car dealers so haven’t bought a new car since 2005. I refuse to buy from criminals.

😀10년 넘게 보고 있습니다. 주식 투자에 많은 도움이 되었습니다. 구독자 100만 되시길

Perhaps the industry’s inflation adjusted income is a reflection of the people who make up the market. For our family we’re considering going down to one car after years of our buying power eroding away due to inflation.

Thanks, John, for your nice work and presentation, but your math is quite wrong in every case, when you convert the ten-year growth rates to the average annual ones. VW's 8% 10-year rate is NOT equivalent to 0.8% annual, but only 0.773%. Kia's 30% 10-year growth rate is NOT equivalent to 3% annual, but only 2.65%! And so on with ALL your other conversions! PLEASE CORRECT.

The number one thing automakers need to stop are dealership BS! Can't trust those bastards at all!

Automaker stock value also needs to be adjusted down due to inflation... GM, for instance, is selling for same dollars as in 2016, but those dollars are diminished by inflation.

There problem is that a lot of us got work from home jobs after the pandemic and we rarely drive anymore and it makes no sense to buy opulent cars we are rarely riding in.

He missed the elephant in the room. All those car makers with the possible exception of Hyundai are probably going out of business due to EVs, Tesla and China.

The next 5 years look very gloom for the OEM auto market. Unless you lower prices. You build them no one will come.

The largest car market in the world is China which is moving to EVs. Hence the bottom has dropped out of the market for legacy car makers because they cannot supply cheap EVs. The CEOs of Ford and GM have said that they are a decade/generation behind Tesla and BYD. If you think the financials of the legacy car makers is bad now, wait until the impact of losing the China market hits their revenue year after year.

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

Their share of the Chinese market is trivial. What's going to destroy them is losing the American market.

@ryanwalters6184

4 ай бұрын

Chinese are not friendly with the west. Only a matter of time before they are banned and then good luck getting service or parts.

2:52 gee, wonder how inflation is created 🤔

Concerning the volume of light-duty vehicles produced each year what has been written and spoken that the average life on the road has gone up along with new vehicle cost and volumes are lower. When EVs and/or PHEVs start making up a large number of new vehicles sold, the average life may go down because of issues replacing old batteries. Battery technology is changing so fast and the electronics and software need to match the battery it just may not make sense to keep producing old technology. Companies may have to share the latest battery technology. I expect the cost of batteries is going to be reduced over time and the performance will go up. It will follow some kind of what is termed Moores' law of electronics but with its own scale factor. So in the future average vehicle life on the road may go down along with cost and new vehicle sales go up. Let's hope we have a solid recycling program in place.

Exactly ! People are being duped by the legacy auto makers. It’s big tobacco and big oil all over again. Consumers always learn the hard way. They’re starting to finally figure it out though. Number 1 selling car in 2023 was a Tesla. Even beat out Toyota ICE car sales.

When credit was cheap and easy it was all about stuffing electronics into the vehicle to drive up the ATP. A lot of these electronics and features were no better, or marginally better, than their mechanical analogs. Now that credit is tight and expensive, the OEMs that can adapt by offering economical and reliable models will thrive and the laggards will head for bankruptcy. GM was so proud of its ever growing ATP.........

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Bank CD's are paying 5%.

In 2008/2009 they said sales would never go back to 15M in the USA. They were wrong. So, we will see what happens next.

The future I see is what’s already happening with Toyota & Subaru BZ4x the BMW & Toyota supra. Larger & larger investment into more & more shared platforms between automakers to keep costs down & investing more on interior screens & materials

@ArthurZakaryan23

5 ай бұрын

Yeah this is a smart way to divide the development costs between two companies instead of taking it all on to one company.

@Haiti3063

5 ай бұрын

Some recent talk of this in Europe as well with Renault, VW, and Stellantis.

Legacy is pushing overpriced inventory into the dealerships. Legacy claims sales and bonuses while the vehicles sit on dealer lots.

voice lessons from Count Vizzini :)

Honestly, OEMs are staring at the inevitable-battery electric vehicles, amidst the noise of lack of EV demand. Yes, there will be a lot of bumps along the way and it’s who can weather the storm. The economics, ultimately will be the driving force. This reminds me of coal vs renewables.

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

EV sales increased by 40% last year in a high interest rate environment. How is that a lack of demand?

What's the status of BMW? Because their cars seem very sensible. They aren't overly large and heavy, well built and reliable and actually cost less than a lot of US based vehicles.

I couldn’t help but laugh and laugh when you said what they “must do”. Ford and GM have no chance to make these no brainer decisions. They have no chance.

Two "simple" things that pretty much nobody realizes will obsolete the legacy gas.car industry,... batteries and chips. Batteries and Semiconductor Processor Chips are getting cheaper and higher performance every year at an incredible pace. In two years batteries may be half as expensive with approximately 50% more energy density and lifespan. In two years chips will likely cost the same or cheaper but have order of magnitudes more processing power, speed, and energy efficiency. These underlying critical BEV components will likely allow the BEVs of 2026 to outperform gas cars on most metrics, including range and price.

Low volume high margin seems to be most manufacturers are going to. Tesla is an exception but most want to make less product and jack up the price.

Peak auto. Peak roads. Peak oil. Lovely.

What happened to "We'll make it up in volume..." Manufacturers use to offer certain products for cheaper knowing they would sell more. Now, lazy thinking.

Remember all the “financial gurus” of the chip shortage who damn near quit their jobs to flip cars? Haven’t heard a word from them

It is only going to get worse for legacy Auto.

When these us automakers stop producing entry level vehicles THAT PEOPLE CAN ACTUALLY AFFORD and then GET RID of POPULAR V8 models and those that are left are over priced 1st by the producers and then buy the Seller’s and then the Government FORCES THEM TO SPEND BILLIONS on vehicles few people even want ( e-v’s ) this is what the obvious result will be

What?! What happened to GM? Weren't they the leader in evs?

@tomasjohansson8255

5 ай бұрын

We know that, but why does not the president of USA knows?

Oh yes absolutely will I not ever pay for a subscription on a vehicle.

The GOAT is right.

It's like my salary. I get a raise every year less than the inflation and i feel like im drowning despite making more than ever i did in my past years😂

@rp9674

5 ай бұрын

I get NO mandatory raise, pay in my industry is stagnating

@KP-xi4bj

5 ай бұрын

Fact: rate of inflation rising faster than rate of salary raise. SMH

@crtmojo2705

5 ай бұрын

I got a promotion without a raise. The other managers all have new cars and bought houses. While I’m told there’s no more money for raises. I wonder where it all went?!

@rp9674

5 ай бұрын

@crtmojo2705 the worst, promotion but no $. I remember layoffs while see management's new $ cars in the lot.

We will always need cars. But many developed markets are aging and having fewer young people. Young people are less well off economically than ever. And there is a growing movement of anti car pro urbanist online movements there are more people who really dislike cars. And younger people statistically are holding off drivers licenses as long as they can. The process of owning a car keeps getting worse. All these new gimmivks that will ultimately fail on new cars also continues to make the automobile amiserablee experience.

@TheWineroute

5 ай бұрын

100%

@brunoheggli2888

5 ай бұрын

We hav to change to a less carsentric society!

@brunoheggli2888

5 ай бұрын

Modern Citys have to be like Singapore and not like LA

Legacy auto's issue with finding new developing markets is that in those markets the Chinese carmakers are at an equal footing; it's not like in the US, where legacy auto has a huge advantage over Chinese carmakers due to the 27.5% import tax on Chinese cars, and Chinese carmakers can't open factories due to being blocked at the political level. When you pair that with the EV transition, and the EV price wars, legacy auto's exports are in great danger. BYD, for example, lowered its prices last week to make its medium sedan plug-in hybrids actually cheaper than the entry level medium sedan internal combustion cars from legacy automakers. If the predicted cost reductions in batteries and electric motors happen this year, next year BYD should be able to have its full electric cars undercut the combustion cars from legacy auto without even having to sacrifice its margins. Given that BYD is deadset in growing its exports, there's a good chance it will lower prices elsewhere too - which should price legacy auto out of the market everywhere the Chinese aren't kept out with protectionist measures, unless legacy auto learns how to make EVs cheaper than their current ICE cars or else learn how to cut the price of their ICE cars by half or more without cutting features, and learn that *fast*. For context, look at the market share of Chinese carmakers in Mexico right now. Now imagine what it will be when the Chinese cut the price of their EVs by 25% or more.

@johnryan6003

5 ай бұрын

Yep

@darylfoster7944

5 ай бұрын

The Chinese can build plants in Mexico and import to the U.S. They can avoid the tariff if they use 75% NA parts.

Why is Mary still at the head of GM? She is leading that company into the ground!

@AkioWasRight

5 ай бұрын

Because she's not a he.

@nickmcconnell1291

5 ай бұрын

@@AkioWasRight Very possibly.

@trumpisastump9382

4 ай бұрын

@@AkioWasRight Can you more clearly tell us about your misogyny???

@AkioWasRight

4 ай бұрын

@@trumpisastump9382 No misogyny at all. Her performance has been pathetic, but she has a low bar for her. If not for equity and inclusivity policies at GM, she would've been fired a long time ago.

The developing markets are about to become a bloodbath. Thailand is only the first country where the Chinese EV makers are arriving in full force, and they already managed to snag ~20% of the whole market in a matter of two years. In this sense, I feel that the strategy of saving money and remaining in their core markets may actually be solid for now. Toyota is far more dependent on South East Asia and Latin America than GM and Ford are, as such, it's likely that it will bleed the most, while the other companies may be able to withstand the shock better.

Disruptive technology can destroy dominant manufacturers if the management doesn't adapt. Where's Kodak?

Yes . Will look at three electric auto sector o. Three years and comparison will devour some companies, in North America too. Looking at You BYD( back door MEXICO) I will but a PHEV or electric then🤗🫶🤩🫣

With rises in housing, medical and college, people don’t have the money to blow on new cars. I can buy new cars but prefer old cars.

Vehicles last much longer. The quality is infinitely better. So, there are fewer sales at higher prices.

Car companies need to look at how they can keep more of the money they are already charging instead of attempt to get more from the consumer. Lets look at where things are going in 5 or 10 years. You may not believe me. With the coming humanoid robotic disruption there will be no location labor advantage. What will count is R&D. Automotive companies may choose to locate near universities as some tech companies do. This is not just about the new stuff you don't want but also building better cars for less. Companies will compete for the best and brightest engineering and scientific talent. Thinking will be rewarded over seniority. This will be the general case with all manufacturing. I realize many may not see this as happening. It is. Billions are being spent on the AI which will help make humanoid robots 'work'. The physical robot is the easy part.

and EV adoption (Hyundai seems to be in the EV race) is slowly eating into new and returning car buyers, not so much in the US, but on other continents.

DUH 🤦‍♂️

Vehicle sales down but vehicle parc still rising meaning VM get more spare parts sales at huge profits. Would love to see VM profits excluding this effect. Second observation is that family sizes shrunk but car dimensions+heigt did increase while space in cities did not increase. Looks like smaller cars will become the future as they are more practical (see Mini success). Big is not beautiful anymore in mature markets but Detroit does not see it. The new small Tesla will thus ruin GM ford etc as the uppercut is the cybertruck. The UAW is digging the grave with a big smile as they will blame China. Blood on the streets is coming and just blame Elon. Blame change & innovation while forgetting Motorola, Kodak etc stories. My take away: never buy an ice car anymore as in say 5:years service will become impossible or crazy expensive and stealers (the real name for dealers) are there to make it even worse.

How many billions did Toyota make last year? Right, thought so.

If you want insane predictions that look likely to occur, check out Tony Seba. The auto industry is in the midst of several phase change disruptions at the same time - EV, AV, SAAS, Robotaxi. We're in the 'valley of death' he predicted years ago. ICE dying and EV replacing them but not at a fast enough rate. Any ICE vehicle manufacturer not busting a gut to switch to EV is gonna die. But the real money in automotive will be AV/Robotaxi.