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@myovumovim9522

Жыл бұрын

Ukraine interior minister is a Neo Nazis. One of the founders of the Azov Battalion. Do they have political power in Ukraine or not? You must be pro west. Why didn't you mentioned about the burning of Russian speakers in Odessa? The bombing in Donbas? Russia is winning and will forever occupy the liberated lands. So this video is bias

@luisgoncalo8686

Жыл бұрын

Oh, You forgot to mention that ukranian Nazis also burned 50 Rússian speaking ukranians Alive, and a dozen more atrocities during those years... This is in fact Western/US propaganda pretending to be unbiased.

@jamesjellis

Жыл бұрын

The one thing I have to say is 69 is considered old when the life expectancy in the country is only 73. Western countries have a much longer life expectancy with the USA being north of 78. I would expect Russia to use less efficient industry with almost non-existent environmental regulations. Higher pollution equals ever present toxic compounds. I wouldn't rule out neurological problems at that age in that case.

@Google_Does_Evil_Now

Жыл бұрын

I enjoyed the video. It makes sense based on the information I am fed through my screens. Dear George Orwell, those screens you said that were full of propaganda that we could not switch off. Well it's us that struggles to turn the screens off. Good news though because in a few small countries they genuinely have structures in place to help ensure democracy and that the government works for the people. Unfortunately this isn't spreading to the large countries very well. Do you have any advice?

@user-xs1pu5qo3b

Жыл бұрын

Meh man i don't think that you know much about people who lives in post soviet states.Highly likely that if the war would last too long people would desire to end it.But that will not be a negotiations.Most likely people would demand a victory,so it means a mobilization of troops,not a 200 k troops but about a 5 million to overcome the Ukraine forces.Thats the true.And its the the worst outcome for Ukraine.Highly likely if this happens that Ukraine will lose independence.

You missed one of the biggest sources of friction: Ukraine has no reason to trust Russia. The way you use lines to demonstrate how it ought to be possible to reach negotiated settlements assumes that the parties trust that a negotiated settlement will be honored. Without trust, giving up land in exchange for nothing more than promises of peace just gives the other side a better starting position when it makes more demands in a few years, or starts a war if the weaker nation refuses to submit to the future demands. Ukraine has every reason to fear that if Russia is allowed to get away with it, Russia will keep taking bites out of Ukraine every few years until what is left of Ukraine is weak enough that Russia can conquer the entire nation. That makes it imperative to prevent Russia from winning or at least to make whatever Russia gains costly enough to strongly discourage future aggression.

@goclbert

Жыл бұрын

An end to the war that resolves all open border disputes would allow Ukraine to join NATO

@danielhutchinson6604

Жыл бұрын

Can we include US State Department Efforts since 1950 to employ former Nazis Soldiers to perform espionage in Ukraine? Can the idea that Victoria Nuland used political influences to create a seperatist Nation that was another Colony of the US to threaten Russia? That seems to have some significant proof of the intention to find some return on investment in the Kyiv Government? The IMF handed over a $16 billion "Loan". that seemed to purchase allegiance..... The US and British Military trained some of Ukraines Troops.. The US claims they have delivered over $5 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine since 2014. We might begin to suspect that William Spaniel gas an agenda and his presentation is simply another one sided presentation of partial facts.....?

@ShammuaMekonnen

Жыл бұрын

and if that is the case, then so be it. The Ukraine historically, has been used to INVADE Russia 5 times of note, and the Ukraine is the one with the distrust ? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

@ForgottenSouI

Жыл бұрын

This take on the conditions for peace assumes something known as REALISM, where every nation acts only in self benefit, but they will behave rationally, react to incentives, and are predictable. Trust is irrelevant in this form of analysis, neither side needs to "Trust" each other nor do they need to Trust each other at all, and peace is achieved when both sides believe neither can realistically accomplish their objectives, nor realistically be able to do so in the near future. This utilizes "Balance of power" theory, where a balance is created, where both sides have an opinion of where they see the line should be drawn. In the Information Convergence section, he mentions this. Those aren't arbitrarily drawn lines, but rather where both sides see the stalemate is and where further action by either side would no longer result in any gain for either side. Evaluating trust is just too difficult, since its already assumed that no nation states "trust" each other in the first place. For example, NATO isn't held together by trust, but it is by the collective incentive of protecting each other against a threat. Each nation will respond to NATO since not doing so will see them kicked out, and they would lose all incentives that NATO provides. I know its odd to have something that seems rather random to be approached empirically, but there's some very neat studies into this if you're interested. People have been compiling their thoughts on state-craft and peace for centuries

@wreckthesecond3883

Жыл бұрын

@@DaaronIrwing god, you people are naive.

Give them an inch, and they’ll take a mile Sometimes compromise is impossible under geopolitical concerns

@angelaantonova743

Жыл бұрын

Which inch? That inch that NATO shouldn't move to the East as it was promised to Gorbachov by that US man? 😉

@ProstoShelMimo

Жыл бұрын

@@angelaantonova743 1) is there any document where such promise is written or its just some old wives tale? 2) just think about that time: the cold war is over, ussr lost, it is crumbling, republics getting independence from ussr. Why would ever anyone from the side that won(USA) promise anything to the side that already lost (USSR) ? It makes no sense.

@ZoragRingael

Жыл бұрын

@@angelaantonova743 it wasn't about NATO, but about Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania being afraid of Russia Russia already invaded them few times stop denying them freedom of choice by now most of your neighboring countries hate you for a reason

@vaninhhuu3215

Жыл бұрын

@@angelaantonova743 NATO promised not to station troops in East Germany and somehow people try to mislead it to "NATO promised not a single inch to the east"

@VitaliyKhomich

Жыл бұрын

@@ZoragRingael No other country ever invaded and destroyed more innocent countries than USA, with & w/out the help of NATO, so the last person I wanna listen about unprovoked invasions is from an American. When other countries beg you not to invade their country and they beg the whole world to step in and protect against the greatest terrorist on the planet earth, but terrorist America still invades kills and destroys and leaves the very very rich countries turned into ruins. About 60% of American GDP comes from military. After invading an innocent country, terrorist charges 35% of the GDP from the innocent countries to protect themselves from (American made) terrorists which they never ever had before American invasion. Have any of you fake compassionate guys ever stood with Afghanistan🇦🇫, Iraq🇮🇶, Yemen🇾🇪, Libya🇱🇾, Nicaragua🇳🇮, Kuwait🇰🇼, Korea🇰🇷, Panama🇵🇦, Cuba🇨🇺, Puerto Rico🇵🇷, Bosnia🇧🇦, Haiti🇭🇹, Dominican Republic🇩🇴, Columbia, Hawaii, Samoa🇼🇸, Argentina🇦🇷, Chile🇨🇱, Philippines🇵🇭, Guatemala🇬🇹, Lebanon🇱🇧, Congo🇨🇩, Vietnam🇻🇳, Laos🇱🇦, Ecuador🇪🇨, Brazil🇧🇷, Indonesia🇮🇩, Syria🇸🇾, Japan, Russia🇷🇺, Greece🇬🇷, Fiji🇫🇯, China🇨🇳, Cambodia🇰🇭, Oman🇴🇲, West Africa, Angola🇦🇴, Iran🇮🇷, El Salvador🇸🇻, Macedonia🇲🇰 Albania🇦🇱, Grenada🇬🇩, Honduras🇭🇳, Bolivia🇧🇴, Venezuela🇻🇪, Liberia🇱🇷, Yugoslavia, Marquesas Island, Croatia🇭🇷, Zaire, Sudan🇸🇩, Native American lands and many many other countries when America the terrorist was destroying them. Terrorist unprovokenly forced the whole world to use the dollar. The only 3 countries in this world that America didn't stick it's nose into are Andora, Bhutan & Liechtenstein. USA is the deadliest aggressor & has the most blood on it's hands than any other country ever existed on the planet earth.

William! You do an absolutely masterful job of analyzing this war. Congratulations! I remember a series put together after WW II when tv came about that my mother and I listened to weekly that we thoroughly enjoyed called “Victory at Sea”. It had wonderful music written to go with the narrative . I think it won some awards but as young teen I wasn’t into awards. I think your work is even better! Don’t even think yours needs music!

@pravak6745

Ай бұрын

How embarrassing. Russia's efforts to conceal their hand in all of this from the start fooled him and you.

Please do a new one with all the changes that have happened!

Your point at 14:09 "No one else has to die... we can go back to normalcy in Europe". False. It would usher in a new era of accepting and rewarding military aggression. I couldn't imagine a more destabilising action. Other European and Eurasian nations would try to settle old and new border disputes with wars and an incentivise nationalist movements like the one that built in Russia. War would become the new normal in Europe and Eurasia.

@grymckr

Жыл бұрын

The whole point of this video is to illustrate why "substantive explanations" like territory are insufficient to explain wars even when it seems like obviously it's a win-win to always negotiate based on balance of power so neither side needs to suffer the costs of going to war. The part you are quoting is the video's example of an outcome that appears rational but due to "bargaining frictions" it's actually impossible to achieve a rational settlement. It's presented from the Ukrainian POV but the exact same logic holds from the Russian POV - if you use some economic function to convert Russian war costs to territory, then it is rational for Russia to compromise on some territory gains to save themselves the equivalent amount in war costs. The is known as the "bargaining model of war.". IR begins with the (obvious) truth that going to war is inefficient and irrational for both parties because they both incur costs and would have been better of negotiating a settlement that saves them those costs. Yet equally obviously, people obviously start and fight wars all the time, so we need to be able to explain why. This is known as the "inefficiency paradox of war." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bargaining_model_of_war

@anangelshero0410

Жыл бұрын

@@grymckr starting a war is inefficient/irrational, but going to war to preserve your sovereignty is often the only viable choice. If the choice is to negotiate away territory and/or sovereignty every time your neighbor attacks you eventually he's no longer your neighbor but your ruler.

@lucasdigital

Жыл бұрын

It also falsely supposes that both parties are tied to a rules-based order. A negotiated settlement based on cost-benefit model doesn't work when one of the sides breaks international agreements at the drop of a fury ushanka hat.

@gatophantasma

Жыл бұрын

I agree with James. You cannot annex territory by conquest, and you cannot allow dictators to annex territory by conquest; it's appeasement. Russia attacked a country, calling it a war between Ukraine and Russia is dishonest or just false. It's a invasion of conquest by Russia onto Ukraine. Russia needs to stop doing conquest and go back to Russia, Ukraine can only stop doing war when Russia Leaves.

@ACuriousChild

Жыл бұрын

@@lucasdigital Your "logic" only appears as such to the casual onlooker or deluded HUMAN MIND that has been robbed of its capability - out of lack of humility and as a consequence arguing out of its mental prison cell which provides (false) security based on the "walls" of the mental prison cell, which limit the loose ends it has to consider in its logic while leaving out a MILLION/ BILLION factors based on million HUMAN MINDS acting based on the actions of a MILLION/ BILLION HUMAN MINDS (this comparison is ONLY exemplary in order to make it more "material/comprehensible") - this sort of behaviour is usually called ARROGANCE/ HUBRIS OF THE HUMAN MIND and is the very root of the events being presented and discussed.... THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN running amok seems a very fitting description to keep it in the same frame of thought as before... One could expand above description beyond the referred example but I leave it there at the moment...

With regards to the number of troops needed to occupy a nation after defeating it, we can refer back to general Shinseke and his disagreement with Rumsfeld. After defeating Iraq, Rumsfeld asserted that most of the troops could return home. In contrast, Shinseki said it would require several times MORE troops to maintain a peace between rival religions and factions. Rumsfeld openly mocked Shinseki. But, Shinseki was proven right, and Rumsfeld (along with Wolfowitz and Cheney) were proven wrong.

@thomassenbart

8 ай бұрын

Singular example which is only proven true in retrospect.

@gregparrott

8 ай бұрын

@@thomassenbart I cited a statement from a well respected general. I have also heard that same statement made by others who are career military, defense analysts, etc. For each war, it could admittedly take more or less. But coming from multiple sources that are in defense careers, I accept that it is a good generalization to set a baseline and then adjust from there.

@johnbarron986

7 ай бұрын

Whatsaboutism 😂

@rmg3008

7 ай бұрын

Let's concentrate on real wars not a world superpower bullying third world countries because they wouldn't accept the dollar for their oil

@dnate697

7 ай бұрын

@@gregparrott Your statement is dead on! Russia is NOT fighting in a Vacuum. It is still knee deep in the Mud of Moldova, Georgia, Chechnya, Amenia, and other Ex-USSR captive countries. If Russia's power drain is too much, they will no longer be afraid of kicking Russia Squatters out of their Countries.

This is a very refreshing analytical geo political/political/economical/psychological analysis of the conflict. I appreciate this upload and support such line of inquiry.

How insightful this piece is , one year ago now , I watched many clips on KZread but none give a succinct explanation like this one , even though I'm watching it now 5th October , 2023

@captainahab2019

3 ай бұрын

you are naive

@ALKARMAWIFOLLOWERS

3 ай бұрын

@@captainahab2019 how maladroit !

Strong points in the video. I think one point I am missing is that Ukraine not only has the big "incentive" to fight back because of these bargaining lines you are drawing but also because it is uncertain when Putin has had enough. Even if the war ended today there would still be a potential for Ukraine to become more a part of Nato or EU and Russia would still have a reason to declare war in the future (like what they did in 2014 and now). There is no clear picture of when Putin has had enough, which means that if the war is successful in the Russian's eyes it can open up the possibility for further invasion at a later time. Therefore Ukraine needs to make this very costly for Russia to prevent future invasion. Im i wrong in this?

@abdielgonzalez7344

Жыл бұрын

You’re right. However, Ukraine did not have the means to do so

@happymanWTL

Жыл бұрын

@@abdielgonzalez7344 they are still at war so it is too early to state. I personally do believe Ukraine will win and that it will be too costly for Russia to make a move like this in the future. But it is not certain. But Ukraine fight for survival and for its people while the Russian side don’t know what they are fighting for so I do still think Ukraine have the upper hand.

@janestones323

Жыл бұрын

@@happymanWTL Ukraine is already getting divided and slowly getting destroyed within - Zelensky has fired the internal affairs minister in one of the regions and the latter has started spilling the beans /though many predict him “falling” out of the window while drunk/, also the ex-president just defeated the country despite the active court case between him and the current president with the pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarch testifying against him while in Zelensky’s captivity. You want more? Let’s live and hear more every coming day

@Janoip

Жыл бұрын

@@janestones323 Souce?

@sinoroman

Жыл бұрын

it is a total political reason why Russia entered Ukraine

Regular soldiers did take part in the Donbass conflict, that is of course denied by the kreml but enough evidence has surfaced that makes it perfectly clear

@raypitts4880

Жыл бұрын

truth will pro vale video and pictures will be looked at truth is there puuuttiinn has had his day more it goes on more we find out Ukraine go go uk

@oofoof1206

Жыл бұрын

Yeah pretty weird huh?the same as how litteral nazi soldiers are fighting againts the russians and the donbass people but the western media denies it even tho when you look at serbian volunteers they are always showing pics or videos of a captured ukranian soldier whit full body tattos of nazi symbols,crazy bro

@proselytizingorthodoxpente8304

Жыл бұрын

Unless, of course, you believe individual Russian troops took their equipment, logistics, and command structure with them in a purely private capacity

@MrIkaGeo

Жыл бұрын

That, plus Putin didn't deny shelling Ukrainians from Russian territory with Russian artillery during (I think) battle of Ilovaysk? So Russia was directly involved

@phil__K

9 ай бұрын

@@MrIkaGeo Yes, they destroyed several battalions of Ukraine's best soldiers in this way. They also had direct battle within Ukraine, during the battle for Debaltseve a salient example

Loss of sea corridor for Ukraine will be devastating. Zelensky understands this and is willing to take the painful route if Russia won't stop.

@julianciahaconsulting8663

8 ай бұрын

yeah the problem with Zelensky - aside from his gross corruption - is that his "painful route" involves getting a world war, likely a nuclear war, happening....

@axell964

8 ай бұрын

@@julianciahaconsulting8663 Hardly. Russian fuckers should just leave Ukraine and go home. Ukraine has every right to defend its borders and all the west should support it at it. For us it is the cheapest way possible to disarm Russia and bomb its military reserves into oblivion. Beside, most people in Ukraine do not want to suffer under russian occupation, with rape, theft, torture and mass murders being so common.

@jackkessler9876

8 ай бұрын

@@julianciahaconsulting8663 Does "corruption" include you Russian trolls lying for money? Or do you lie for free?

@julianciahaconsulting8663

8 ай бұрын

@@jackkessler9876 Give it a rest with your Neo McCarthyism BS.....nobody pays me or anyone that can see more than simplistic Good/Evil Black /White didactic optics about this war.

@julianciahaconsulting8663

8 ай бұрын

@@jackkessler9876 are you actually going to tell me that the Ukraine isnt the most corrupt country in Europe....30 billion dollars of US aid going missing and unaccounted for in Ukraine and you are actually going to say its not corrupt??

Your explanation is right and true.

Ukraine can’t afford a settlement as described in the end of this video, as once Russia secured a defensible land bridge to Crimea, it weakens Ukraine economically as it’s mostly cut off from the sea and leaves it especially vulnerable to another invasion down the line. Not to mention it sends the message to other countries that sovereignty is negotiable. Nothing short of complete withdrawal should be accepted for these reasons, especially if we wish to not see more nuclear proliferation as its the only surefire way to avoid being invaded.

@gocatomic8818

11 ай бұрын

Putin👑🙏🇷🇺❤️👍

@rossib6974

10 ай бұрын

Hopefully there will be no England and USA economic capabilities to support this war and it will be vack to normal during Soviet with 3 brethern Belrouse ,Russia s and Ukrainian as one

@dhurjatinarayangiri6995

7 ай бұрын

Ukraine can die then😂

@justaskstu

4 ай бұрын

Exactly!

Defenders only ever have something to lose and the invaders set the stakes. There will not be an equilibrium favorable to the defender if offence as a response is out of the table or otherwise impossible.

This was terrific. An up to date analysis as of October 2023 would be very welcome.

I like this video,,it's a very honest take on it indeed!👍✌❤

I appreciate your analysis. I learned several things that I will take with me to other problems, thank you for posting. As this is my the second video analysis that I've seen from you that I've really enjoyed, I subscribed from this video as well. Thank you.

20:40 interesting fact, those vertical smoke trails are from rockets that got fired before detonation so scientists could study the pressure wave during nuclear testing.

This is a good question

This video illustrates the exact way of thinking that led the western "analysts" to conclude that Ukraine would fall in a matter of days or weeks after the full scale invasion. It misses a key part or the equation that has rendered all the pre-war "analysis" absolutely useless. That is the will of the general population of Ukraine to fight to defend their country. In my opinion, it demonstrates a lack of understanding of the complex mentality of both nations and all the underlying historical grudges and misstrust between them.

@L_Train

Жыл бұрын

You're forgetting to limacho and sumadon.

@jamham69

Жыл бұрын

"it is good for ukraine if there was peace" they dont give a flying about casualties, equipment losses or costs. Perun makes a better point of this. He refers to this as the Ukrainian patriotic war. they love thier country, and will fight and die for it because there is fighting and dying to be done for it. that, and they HATE russia like the Polish does. Spite will keep them fighting long after common sense would say stop.

Excellent podcast. Only thing ignore the role of hatred which can propel human endurance, atrocities and impact the lines of rationality. Also, underplays 'taking a break' (to resupply, rearm etc) as a mode which may well change the balance of power/perceived balance of power.

@ivanoliver5273

Жыл бұрын

Cree vet V6

@d.l.gentsch5304

Жыл бұрын

You are correct that Russian's hatred for Ukrainians has had an effect on both sides. I keep wondering how a population could care so little about human lives, whether their own or others. Is it only due to the effects of propaganda, or is there something more?

Very educative !

@sprintfoxy1240

6 ай бұрын

nah

Great to hear the lecture, so meaningful and learning with facts.

@Seraphimofwoodstock

3 ай бұрын

I'd say a dismally skewed weighing of facts and a notable pausity of cultural and historical information. Such limitations suggest a significantly skewed pro-western bias. This appears elsewhere in his analysis often.

@johnnybrown689

20 күн бұрын

@@SeraphimofwoodstockThis looks what I imagine prehistory wise men patting each other on the back because they all agree that the earth is flat , and the sun circles the earth . Chekov of star trek would say Russian scientist were the first to figure this out . SLAVA UKRAINI ❤❤❤😊😊😂 !

I love your work here on the internet. On this episd. the fact that u went into bargaining examples, and also, game theory. Your lectures are well thought out, and you apply just the right amount of detail, so that a laymen such as myself can grasp what is really going on over their. When I was in college, my roommate was working on his masters in mathematics. You remind me of him. keep puttin out more great vids. Oh, Im going to pick up you book. God Bless T.E.

I think this video looks too much at this one conflict in isolation and does not expand military implications of the 2014 invasion to the current invasion. In 2014 they invaded and established a "new normal" in Crimea which ended in a ceasefire (sort of). Now after the failure of the grand price of the entire country, they seek to take Donbas and again settle on a ceasefire. Ukraine already knows it cannot settle on losing land because then that will be fortified beyond Ukraine's possibility to take later (so it is never a possible cost to Russia) and then again it will be forced to cede land again, having it fortified, and then cede more, having it fortified, etc. Russia is well aware that they have the long term resources to repeat this conflict and Ukraine doesn't. Ukraine will have to spend time to rebuild their entire infrastructure and population while Russia can skip right ahead to rebuilding an army. This entire war already started with the idea that Russia cannot lose land and always stood to gain land.

@seanniemeyer5437

Жыл бұрын

I would go as far back as the 2004 orange revolution, where Ukrainian protesters blocked the pro russian presidential candidate from declaring victory in a fraudulent election. This demonstrated Ukraine's determination to be self-governing and free of russian influence. We could also look at the issues around the black sea fleet being based in Sevastopol (Crimea) and the lease agreement and payments for this base on Ukrainian soil. You are correct. Putin will keep on launching new invasions until he controls the government of Ukraine and most of its territory. Ukraine can not agree to peace without a NATO guarantee to interven if Putin attacks again. Putin will never accept such a term. So the war will continue. The sooner the west get serious about supporting Ukraine with the equipment it needs to defeat Putin the sooner this will be over.

@levicastle8731

Жыл бұрын

True but one key thing to rebuttal your last paragraph. Russia absolutely has myriad resources and could easily outlast Ukraine in that aspect. However, does Russia have the economic resources to withstand widespread sanctions from the west? They’re turning themselves into the next North Korea; a pariah state. As I think we’re all aware, North Koreas economy is the equivalent of the steamy shit my dog took before bed tonight. Russia cannot stand an economic war of attrition, with sanctions of this magnitude. They don’t want attrition. They want exactly what you said in your first paragraph. They want UA to let go of the land. Russia has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Btw, nice analysis my guy. 💪

@voodoodummie

Жыл бұрын

@@levicastle8731 some interesting points for sure. However, if the war ends Russia will clamor (and I suspect would succeed) in lowering and removing sanctions from the west as their "reward" for the "not as big of a dick as you could've been" award. So their economy would slowly start up again, and I think that they will start to pivot their military imports towards China who is more aligned with Russia and less likely to sanction it. This kind of change takes years, and cannot be done within this current conflict, it requires a period of licking their wounds after the war. They KNOW they can restart their war much later with these changes, and they would want to have the best starting platform in the third Ukraine conflict. Lastly, Don't forget that Russia is largely a resource economy, and the people in power get their financial power from that sector. A lot of the sanctions hurt regular Russians, who the government doesn't really care about, just enough to have them enlist and to have them be able to be conscripted.

@joythought

Жыл бұрын

@@voodoodummie I think you are right but I think Crimea could become a buffer state

@pickindimm6847

Жыл бұрын

@@voodoodummie The government doesn’t care about regular Russians? Interesting view, though somewhat naive.

This is a good analysis of the causes of the war, especially Irredentism and Energy issues

Great video as usual

I think one possible game theoretic reason you missed is dynamic inconsistency. If you're invaded then reaching a negotiated settlement with the invader might the lowest cost option for you once an invasion begins. However, what if you instead take the attitude that when invaded you're going to always fight to the bitter end and cause as much damage as possible to the invader regardless of the cost to yourself? If you take that kind of "irrational" position and credibly signal that to would-be invaders then they might rationally decide that invading you is not worth it after all and thus you avoid invasions entirely. However, if you still get invaded then the only way to really signal your "irrational" intention is to fight to the bitter end even though it seems more costly.

@MrEiniweini

Жыл бұрын

The Afghanistan model since the year 1100AD. If you consider Ukraine and the use of scorched earth in the past it is not implausible.

@killingtimeitself

Жыл бұрын

i like to shorten this one up to the "deranged man" problem, its certainly an interesting look at the war overall.

@seneca983

Жыл бұрын

@@killingtimeitself I think that would be a bit misleading term.

@killingtimeitself

Жыл бұрын

@@seneca983 definitely a silly term, fortunately for everyone im not a profressional in the field lol

@pickleballer1729

Жыл бұрын

Steven Pinker talks about this sort of thing in his book "The Better Angels of Our Nature". Spaniel is correct in his analysis of why the war should have been avoided, but I believe what you are talking about is vitally important in Ukraine's case. In "On The Origins of War" by Donald Kagan, he talks about how important it is to make sure that victory is unambiguous, so that the defeated aggressor nation doesn't feel like it's worth invading again in a few years (the most obvious case of failure in this regard being the Versailles Treaty after WW1). In fact, the re-occurrence of essentially the same war a few years later is basically what his book is about , and there are MANY cases of this throughout history. That said, if Russia is able to get out of this mess with more than they had when they entered it, I think the conclusion that Putin will reach is obvious to even the most naive child. Ukraine, in a very real sense, is not just fighting for its own survival, but for the future peace and freedom of the entire world.

Could you do a video on RU's intelligence failures prior to the war, and how that may have affected their rational for the war? The amount of fired and jailed intelligence officers (including top officials) suggests this may be a very influential factor. Thanks!

@angelaantonova743

Жыл бұрын

Good idea!! Better one is add the ones made by CIA. No, it's not necessary, it's enough ask it to Julian Assange. Oh, hurry up before the US kill him!

@ZoragRingael

Жыл бұрын

I think Putin wouldn't attack if he knew it would fail this badly But he can't retreat either now Basically he cornered himself

@angelaantonova743

Жыл бұрын

@@ZoragRingael It's not the american Colonel Douglas Mcgregor's opinion.

@ZoragRingael

Жыл бұрын

@@angelaantonova743 yeap, but I'm sure it would be around these lines btw some analysts saying Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine, were pointing out that Putin wouldn't do such risky thing I guess some people convinced Putin there was no risk

@8520204

Жыл бұрын

True, Putin apparently fired a bunch of Brass hats but remember the Russian Federation has not been at war like the US and NATO for three decades. They just didn't have the experience; plus, Russia doesn't tolerate failure like the West does. It fires dummies. Not like the United States who continues to promote, both in the civilian world as well as military, incompetence. Example: How many US officers and bureaucrats lost their job at the last fuckup Afghanistan? None.

I really enjoyed this video! Thank you 😊 also, what is the beautiful piano song playing?

@Grand-Rose

Ай бұрын

yeah it was sooooo soothing I have been trying to find out since so long....

@Grand-Rose

Ай бұрын

But I have found it, it is Almost in F - Tranquillity by Kevin MacLeod

@dtf-productions6134

Ай бұрын

@@Grand-Rose omg thank you so much for finding it!! 😱😱😱🥹🥹🥹

@Grand-Rose

Ай бұрын

@@dtf-productions6134 Lol dw about it it is in the description.......

@dtf-productions6134

Ай бұрын

@@Grand-Rose ohhhh lmaooo 😄😆

So after more than a year of war and still fighting now, will there be any amendments on the causes of the war that you see now or no change on your interpretations of the causes of war as before ?

The most important thing missing in my opinion is that without first fighting a war, there is no guarantee for any settlement to be respected. New claims can soon after be made. The cost in reputation and reliability is one russia isn't particularly sensitive to. The attrition and cost of the this war greatly increase the cost of another one, or threatened one, shortly after a settlement for this is reached. If ukraine knew that giving up x territory will actually be the end, it would have been much more likely to negotiate.

@j7j7j7j7x

Жыл бұрын

US and the west has been even worse at keeping to treaties -- you have to work hard to ignore the west's disregard of Minsk or the Baker agreements.

@neptunefog6082

Жыл бұрын

Bullshit, they knew if they only respected Minsk agreements there would be no war. Why did America invest 4 billion dollars into the coup in Ukraine in 2014?

@julianciahaconsulting8663

8 ай бұрын

Ukraine has to accept that Crimea and Donbas - two regions where russian speaking ukrainians are the majority - do not want to be part of the Ukraine anymore after their treatment by Kiev since 2014 - and nor will RUssia relinquish their control they fought to get over those 2 regions. Ukraine lost those 2 regions by its stupidity and brutality.

@xanmontes8715

8 ай бұрын

True, Russia is already seen as the international bad guy so you're right, they won't care about repercussions to their repitation. I guess all we can do is take a page from the american playbook and help the russians enact a regime change. Let's be honest, Putin is an old man... He's likely to keel over any day now.

Fascinating analysis. A lot has happened since you posted this. I look forward to what you're working on now - and your book.

@Adreno23421

Жыл бұрын

It's a fascinating analysis, but leaves way too much of history out of it. In 1996 Ukraine turned over to Russia all of their nuclear weapons in an agreement that Russia would never invade Ukraine. Why doesn't Russia return those nuclear weapons now? It's easy to attack a country after you purposely made it weak before.

@joeyfotofr

Жыл бұрын

In fact that "a lot has happened since" this was posted is a tribute to the clarity and openness of this professional analysis... But YES, a lot has happened that dramatically shifted options on the ground in Ukraine...jt

@gaoxiaen1

Жыл бұрын

@mike wilson He speaks like a knowledgable and logical person with well-reasoned opinions, unlike the troll with a no-content fake account to whom I am replying.

@dan61131

Жыл бұрын

only 1 reason about this war: Russia invaded a sovereign country. Your reason for this war are Putin's unending story of propaganda of his own fear & greed. But now he is acting & invading like Hitler for the last 22 years as Russian dictator.

@JuicyTobacco

Жыл бұрын

@@mikewilson2332 Are you saying that Putin is not crazy? Now that's crazy.

Thanks

With friends like America you don't need enemies! Ukraine has now learned this the hardest of hard ways!

@sH-ed5yf

5 ай бұрын

Oh realy. So did Amerika invaded ukraine or was it russia

@MrStarTraveler

5 ай бұрын

@@sH-ed5yf No America didn't need to invade, they took control over Ukraine the usual way - Through coup de tat! Ever since 2014 maidan coup Ukraine is on remote control by the US, so under US guidance Ukraine did everything to push Russia to invade. Could Russia have handled this much better and avoid armed conflict? YES They could have! They made their mistakes, but that doesn't change the fact that the US is the real culprit here! America is prepping my country to be the next, so don't talk to me what Russia is doing! I can see first hand what America is doing in my country. Puppeteering our government to topple soviet memorials and have my country display an aggressive stance against Russia, like a pincher to a bulldog!

One can think of the Ukrainian belief that Russia won't respect any future deal for very long(or that making such a deal emboldens Russia) as a Preventive motive on Ukraine's side. Which gives even less reason to believe the war will end soon

@brentondahlitz721

Жыл бұрын

America england NATO EU and zelinsky started this war . I find a lot of what you are stating is only what America and England want you to say if reading between the lines you have not stated the full truth that makes it something to be very wary of as half truths are not the truth.

@mercenairy1

11 ай бұрын

like the west and ukraine did with minsk? its russia that should be skeptical about anything nato the usa, the eu says. it was all lies to buy time tp arm ukraine and move nato closer

The absence of US role in your analysis betrays its limitations.

@alexanderhowie3570

Жыл бұрын

Not a very good analysis a lot of things missed out neo nazi s supported and trained by nato america and europe nato exercises this time last year in ukraine on the russian border to antagonize the russians ukraine aint even in nato

@MrWanainchi

Жыл бұрын

The West means America too

@ogirimaadinoyi6841

Жыл бұрын

exactly my point

@tonyfreedman1453

Жыл бұрын

@@MrWanainchi 0l

@connernickerson5509

Жыл бұрын

There is no significant us involvement in the beginning, you nonce.

Arbitrary equations of massive engagements regarding economic amd military power oriented ventures unpredictable . A new realm worth beckoning; it'd take a lot of comprehension of the complexities involved . Not amicable by all standards of harmonious co-existance .

An additional friction point I think is how seriously Ukraine can take a Russian peace offer after Budapest and Minsk 1& 2. They would be highly entitled to not belief Russian offers.

@dudududu1926

11 ай бұрын

@Jasper Percabeth What?

@tomselinski5213

11 ай бұрын

@Jasper Percabeth how?

@dudududu1926

11 ай бұрын

@Jasper Percabeth You kept avoiding answer the question.

@rictechow231

11 ай бұрын

@Jasper Percabeth You would need to be part of the negotiation team to know the truth is as the interpretation of the terms were taken differently. Russia negotiated in bad faith as it claims it is not a party to the dispute and therefore not bound by it's terms. With that view M 1 & 2 were not so broken but evaporated. It repudiated the whole concept of a negotiated settlement. In any case you are avoiding the Budapest agreement which was broken by Russia in 2014 very blatantly. How many times have you bought Brooklyn Bridge?

@projectedone

4 ай бұрын

Both Minsk 1 and 2 were broken by Ukraine. German chancellor even admitted that it was never the intention to stick to those agreements but use it to buy time to arm and train Ukraine for the upcoming war. When Ukraine and Russia had a peace agreement again in Budapest Borris Johnson flew over to tell Zelenskyy to not go forward with it. Zelenskyy was also threatened to be hung from a tree by the far right if he did. Soon after that Zelenskyy made it illegal to make a peace treaty with Russia while Putin is in office.

Dear William, what a brilliant and in-depth explanation. Kudos to you n thank you for your effort for keeping the world informed.

@michaeldobson107

Жыл бұрын

@Toask Russian bots are active tonight. Nice of you to point out your ignorance and ego, though.

@Dj-621

Жыл бұрын

​@Toask fr bot asf

@rrenfrow5071

11 ай бұрын

whatever this was a light gloss over with important details left out

“Both candidates declared themselves Victor.” Very nice.

Best analysis of the war I have seen. Very thoughtful and helpful. Is there an update to this 12 months later? There seems to be a significant increase in Ukrainian military capability since this video, but is dependent on support from the West which cannot be guaranteed so sadly the "uncertainty" grows and that pushes back the point at which the two sides are sufficiently confident of the military situation to negotiate. Looking now (instead of 12 months ago) the "popularity uptick" of starting a war must die as it did for Galtieri when he invaded the Falklands. Countless body bags and a miserable economy will soon wear that down regardless of the control over the media.

Actually, in 2015 there were about 30 000 regular russian troops fighting Ukraine in the Donbas. They just didn't call themselves that, pretending to be just volunteers acting on their own with no support from Putin. I guess that's why they had artillery from the russian military stockpiles, and that's why the battle for Donetsk airport involved russian spetsnaz. Curious how so many people forget all that happened.

@qf8898

Жыл бұрын

​@Jasper Percabeth bruh straight answer

@qf8898

Жыл бұрын

@Jasper Percabeth what a just say .it was a straight answer 🙂

@tiborpurzsas2136

7 ай бұрын

Yeah well the Ukrainian troops were slaughtering the Russian minorities in Donbass at the time. So what was Putin supposed to do? Allow the Ukrainians to keep killing innocent civilians? Somehow ppl like you don't want to remember that fact

@Noqtis

7 ай бұрын

So by the same metric you agree NATO does the very same since the very beginning?

@user-ef3gy4mt1f

6 ай бұрын

I just wanted to make same point as @ Noqtis. there was training camps of NATO on west of UA in 2014. And they intervene there even sooner.

Erudite to the point where the unpacking popped all the bubbles in the bubblewrap. Commendable effort, sir, the best outline on the war I have seen recently. Well done!

Maybe. It seems there are things the public are not aware of, and that shapes interpretation.

Please update this video. Your analysis is excellent

Great job explaining the on going conflict between Russia , and Ukraine. I like to know your opinion on a end to the war

@ExtrovertedCenobite

Жыл бұрын

Ukraine loses, Russia Wins. Zelensky running away to one of his mansions in different countries or is killed or imprisoned by his own people, War ends!

The only problem with drawing a line and saying compromise now (well not the only problem, someone mentioned trust and the lack of it which is also a valid point) is you reward russia for invading Ukraine. That is wrong, you cant reward aggression. Russia needs to get out of Ukraine, period.

Very informative. Thank you.

@williamspaniel what’s the song playing in the video?

@Grand-Rose

Ай бұрын

Almost in F - Tranquillity by Kevin MacLeod

Hopefully no settlement is made. Land for peace never works. Always a bad idea. It’s just a matter of whether they’d ever be able to push them back. It wouldn’t surprise me if in the end there is a ceasefire and the war just ends without ever actually ending like in Korea. To quote Reagan “If you want peace you can have it right now, surrender.”

@ZoragRingael

Жыл бұрын

I don't remember Reagan surrendering. Though, if it's about Vietnam, Russia won't do it, unless it suffers heavy economic and military loses

@ZoragRingael

Жыл бұрын

@@zimguy8245 well, won't work with Russia, since any cease fire will be used for regrouping and preparing for new attack / war

@giacomogiacomo1194

Жыл бұрын

Easy for you to say coz your not on the firing line of the Russian artilleries and rockets.

@ZoragRingael

Жыл бұрын

@@giacomogiacomo1194 That's not true Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. Then there was cease fire. What did Russia do next? Right, invaded Ukraine again in 2022 Not to mention they were firing from time to time on Ukrainian positions even during cease fire Also Putin stated few times that Ukraine is artificial country and shouldn't exist Meaning their plan is to conquer all of Ukraine

@thomaskalbfus2005

Жыл бұрын

If the war is negotiated to an end, the hatred will remain, people who have lost homes and family members to the attack will not soon forgive the Russians, particularly if they hold onto Ukrainian territory. Maybe they don't care much about the Russian speaking minorities, but when you lose a home or family members to the Russian invasion, that makes one less inclined to see the Russian point of view.

Before Euromaidan, Russia successfully used political and economic leverage to dissuade Ukraine from signing the E.U. deal. In the months prior to the Vilnius summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in a trade war with Kyiv, blocking nearly all imports from Ukraine and cutting energy supplies to the country. In turn, this reduced Ukrainian exports by 25 percent and shrank the economy by 1.5 percent. Ukraine Constitution 1991, disallows foreign military bases after 2017. According to former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's constitution forbids the country from hosting foreign military bases after 2017. Yanukovych breached the Ukraine Constitution 1991, Article 17. After 2017, Ukraine's constitution is incompatible with foreign military bases hosting either NATO or CSTO. In 2018, President Petro Poroshenko's constitution amendment allowed temporary foreign military bases. *If Yanukovych didn't sign the military base rental extension, Russia would be kicked out of Crimea.*

@valenrn8657

Жыл бұрын

@@kityacat5419 My point is against Putin's false narrative.

@jamesknight2198

Жыл бұрын

your first sentence should read "Before Euromaiden, Russia successfully controlled Ukraine"

@proselytizingorthodoxpente8304

Жыл бұрын

Putin's message was very clear. Russia or the west. You can't have both. Unfortunately for Putin, Ukraine didn't choose Russia.

@neptunefog6082

Жыл бұрын

Ukraine east shore Russia ab

@neptunefog6082

Жыл бұрын

@@proselytizingorthodoxpente8304 ukraine east chose Russia but USA with puppet Ukrainian government was punishing them for it for 8 years

I think it is a bit of the execution of the feeling of 'self-destruction' to later come out better.

This video aged like fine wine.

Thank you. A few initial additions/expansions.. 1. The “Cuba scenario ”.. Perception by some Russians that USA / NATO MISSILE placements were an unacceptable threat. Fuelled by propaganda, misunderstanding and maybe some truth. The Mearsheimer arguments AFAIU. 2. Food resources, UA as breadbasket 3. Megalomaniacal tendencies as a leader gains confidence with years in power. Not quite covered by your irrationality chapter. Apologies if those were covered and I missed them.

Thank you for this effort put in this analysis.

@blazadzic588

Жыл бұрын

Thank you 👍 i relley hope i dindt have to thing of somthing like this my grandraher fouth in 2ww and i know how much damege it llives on a pepole souls 😭😭😭it is not worth no money,diamonts and gv 💗💗💗 love to all pepole show kids and destroy wepon all accros planet and use scrap 💗💗💗 love you all we all al bheter then this💋💋💋

@JP_54321

Жыл бұрын

Alredy replied.

12:00 good on using the 2 watches version

Looking for a follow up in light of recent events ; )

That video just serves one purpose To demonstrate that people who view the world through the lens of economic theory and game theory are utterly lost when it comes to wars. According to such theories back in the early 20th century, a big war between big powers was impossible, because it would destroy the foundation for its existence. Despite of that, WW I and later WW II happened. That is because states often operate in catories of military geopolitics and political prestige and status. If Russia can´t impose its will on Ukraine, its status and prestige as big power goes down the drain, with severe repercussions for its network of alliances and confrontations with adversaries. If Ukraine just gives in to some Russian demands, radical politicians will arise, citing the government of cowardice and demanding a rollback, while NATO members would feel betrayed by their proxy Ukraine (especially as the Russian main goal is the neutralization of Ukraine for good!) and stop military and financial aid. Converting everything into monetary value when it comes to problem solving outside of economics is a stupid idea, and it doesn´t become better just because a lot of people fall for it and earn a livelyhood from it.

@salvadorvizcarra769

Жыл бұрын

It is not only "Political Prestige" or the absurd fact of "Imposing Wills" on Ukraine. NATO does not feel "Betrayed" by Ukraine, because Ukraine is NOT part of NATO yet. In fact, Ukraine does not have the support of NATO, beyond the sale of arms. Do you want to know why Russia has not been removed from the UN? Or WHY don't send fighter jets against Russia? Cuz If anything, IF the US really wanted to resolve the crisis in Ukraine, the US would break up with NATO forever. In 1991, when the USSR collapsed, the Russians dissolved the Warsaw Pact. However, NATO was not dissolved. It was the opposite. NATO grew in power, in territorial extension and in the number of allied countries. (And NOT precisely "Allied Countries", but rather "Countries Subordinate to the will of the US", which is the correct name). In this war Mr. Putin is DEFENDING his Homeland. Mr. Putin is fighting today against only ONE Country (Ukraine), cuz if he doesn't fight Ukraine today, then tomorrow he will have to fight against 30 countries that make up NATO. At the end of WWII, NATO had 8 allied countries. During the height of the Cold War, NATO already had 14 countries in total. Today, when the USSR and Communism no longer exists, there are 30. Just in case we all forgot. Mr. Zelensky was a television Comedian who won the Presidency of Ukraine thanks to Mr. Petro Poroshenko (this one of great academic and political merit), who was ridiculed for the Parodies that Mr. Zelensky made on TV. And why didn't Mr. Poroshenko stop these taunts and slanders against him? Answer: Cuz Mr. Poroshenko did not want to "Affect" the Freedom of Expression in Ukraine, and cuz Mr. Poroshenko never thought that a Comedian without experience and without political stature (without political or physical stature), could beat him in a vote. (The same case with Hillary/Trump. And for that same reason, Mr. Zelensky sent the two opposition leaders to jail and controlled Ukrainian TV militarily, with the support of the US). Well... Already as President, Mr. Zelensky dazzled him by the proposals of the International Monetary Fund (Headquarters in Washington, DC), in which he would be filled with money if he agreed to join NATO, it was easy for him to challenge the power of Russia. Today Mr. Zelensky is ALONE and friendless. Mr. Zelensky faces Mr. Putin in absolute solitude. What does Mr. Putin want? Answer: Russia cannot allow a NATO Military Base on its immediate border. What does the United States want? Answer: The US has almost 800 Military Bases spread all over the world, and they need another 800 more Bases, to subsume Russia. That is what the US wants: Subsume Russia. But... BUT, the US will not enter a war to defend Mr. Zelensky, cuz China would side with Russia. End of history and possibly end of the United States. Governing a country is serious business. A country cannot be Governed by a TV Comedian. Finally, for the US the issue of its National Security is something non-negotiable. (The Pentagon is PARANOID on this point). However, this same Right to Defend Itself, US is denied to Russia and it is also denied to all the countries of the world. No one in the world can pose a threat to the US, but in reality, the US is a real threat to everyone. Now, please read the words of Mr. Vladimir Putin: “Russia has always advocated for the creation of a system of equal and indivisible Security. A system that is vital for the entire world community. In December last year (in 2019), we proposed to conclude an agreement on Security Guarantees. Russia called on the West to an honest dialogue to search for reasonable compromise solutions. To take into account each other's interests (US-Europe/Russia). All in vain. The NATO/US countries did not want to hear us, which means that in fact they had completely different plans from the beginning… And we saw it”.

@benjaminhutt865

Жыл бұрын

If you watched the video, you would know most of the incentives for war he listed weren't monetary. Not sure what you are aiming at.

@atomm3331

Жыл бұрын

Well said

@alexsartre2453

Жыл бұрын

I am agree 100%

@13thmistral

Жыл бұрын

economy was a factor in all of those though.

This is a way of looking at the cost benefit analysis I hadn’t really thought of before, it’s pretty cool! One thing I think might need to be considered is that both sides could have a “cost of surrender” that acts in the opposite direction as the cost of war. For Russia, surrender makes Putin look foolish and weak, and for the Ukraine, surrender shows that this type of offensive works, and increases the likelihood of them doing something like it again in the future to try and push further once they are established in the new area.

@thomaslarson4320

Жыл бұрын

Who cares how Putin feels at this point? There is no off ramp anymore for this brutal dictator.

@Medusaesque

Жыл бұрын

I think that PUtin's costs of war/surrender and Russia's costs of war/surrender should not be conflated. So, embarrassment to Putin is not necessarily a cost of surrender for Russia.

@carlreed6186

Жыл бұрын

This has to be looked at like a game of chess. If Ukraine gives up even 1 inch of territory taken since the resumption of Hostilities they lose. So how do we end the conflict without that happening? Russian agents are working the internet and KZread all the time trying to convince people that Ukraine should be willing to give up territory for peace. Russia is looking a little like it did before the Russian revolution. They are having frequent anti war protests. If NATO holds strong in its support of Ukraine Russia at some point in time will take care of Putin in its own way.

@michaeltovey02607

Жыл бұрын

Ah, so Russia is liberating any bits of Europe that takes its fancy and will tell us that if we do not let them do it they will blow us away or have I missed something? How inconvenient that Ukraine is putting up resistance. And when Russia has had a breather and rebuilt its army we can start all over again.

@living-wellon-less5669

Жыл бұрын

To make an accurate cost benefit analysis you have to know the price of the your resources you will lose! For the Russians it is calculable, for Ukraine what is the going rate for freedom? I can tell you whatever it is Ukrainians are willing to pay it! My wife is from Kyiv, Ukraine, she grew up under Soviet rule, the Ukrainian people will never accept that again they will fight with rocks if they have to! SLAVA UKRAINI!

I did enjoy this video. It's almost more interesting watching a year after it was made, for its relevance has not been lost meanwhile, and some perspective nonetheless gained. Did Russia "change tactics" after being repulsed from Kyiv? Did it gamble 100k and lose on red; then find another 100k it'd forgotten under the mattress? Or did it bet 90k on the south, with a 10k side bet on the capital? On the 'you never know' basis ... The 'you never know' basis - does that stand and fall on the respect with which one cherishes the lives of one's troops? Incisive, prof. Spaniel. Incisive.

Thank you for the content

I am a mathematician and a computer science engineer. I know nothing about international relations. But I learn a lot from your videos, and keep watching them, trying to understand a little bit more each time. Thank you very much for this great effort.

@godhallelujahgaming7947

Жыл бұрын

I advise you to leave this echo chamber then

@0ldb1ll

Жыл бұрын

It's nothing to do with international relations. Putin started life in a two room, rat infested apartment (his words). He is now rated to be the richest man in the world. This was not magic, it was financial greed and exploitation of the national resources of the Russian people, (they are taking home Ukrainian toilets as the spoils of war for Christ's sake). He has betrayed his people into the hands of the Chinese government.

@richardmoloney689

Жыл бұрын

I think your great

It's no vast surprise to me that those whose politics and global affairs are informed by newspaper and TV, the mainstream media generally, weren't aware this war was coming - nor of the European and global significance of Ukraine as an important keystone of Western history. But I've got books in my library published in the 2000's and 2010's, on topics with such titles as Essays on Security Concerns in Post-Soviet Europe, and the like, which whilst not crystal balls, are pretty clear about the likelihood of the trajectories of political tensions in Eastern Europe issuing in such a conflict. Such facts must surely lead one to realize there are serious questions they might want to ask about the more prolific news media, like what are they doing, and for whom, when large chunks of what's really going on, and what the state of play is, in the world are lacking from the TV news and broadsheets. (There's no point me mentioning the tabloids, right!?) But seriously, there has to be something there to query, maybe even seek to remedy, in our sources of news, their function, doesn't there??

I have been in both countries for years and know the differences between them .

My compliments on the most intelliegnt video re. the conflict that I have seen so far!

@sprintfoxy1240

6 ай бұрын

least intelligent*

One of the best channels on KZread. Well done, William.

@theaveri

Жыл бұрын

This guy spreads false information...

this whole thing reminds me of this king in his dying years who wanted too take a kingdom and won but they quickly gave it back because they did not see the value in keeping it.

@nachosNipples

Жыл бұрын

what was it called?

@shivanshna7618

Жыл бұрын

Which king?

@agenteiegaming

Жыл бұрын

@@shivanshna7618 i cannot remember the name exactly but I'm trying too find him again its been a few months since I've seen them

@shivanshna7618

Жыл бұрын

@@agenteiegaming ok thanks

@KoffingOnion

Жыл бұрын

Pretty sure he's referring to King Henry VIII who took somewhere in France in his final years?

I absolutely love the way you break everything down. Even the most uneducated person can understand

@klaasklapsigaar1081

7 ай бұрын

Like, a golden retriever.

@parabot2

7 ай бұрын

Funny he forgot to mention the Leaked victoria nuland calls , funny that .

@moestietabarnak

Ай бұрын

@@parabot2 or the $5 billions invested in russophobia...

I like your lines!…❤

Its very informative...new subscriber 💓💟❤️👍👍

Historically, there are zero agreements that have been honored by Russia and they are not likely to start now.

@TheRadFactor

Жыл бұрын

The same can be said about Europe and the US.

@nemiw4429

Жыл бұрын

@@TheRadFactor add Ukraine. Russia has always honored way more. Its eastern men mentality. Handshake is more worth than paper. Thats how Russia and US agreed no more steps east with NATO. With a handshake. Obviously the US didnt care about a handshake. US politicians are wiesel, snakes, rats.

@Konser_konge

Жыл бұрын

@@TheRadFactor Ohh, how so?.

@pzhda

Жыл бұрын

@@Konser_konge Iran, Cuba, Libya and Afghanistan.

@Konser_konge

Жыл бұрын

@@pzhda yeah that doesnt count. What agreements did thoose countires make with European countireand the US taht were broken?. agreed they were treated like shit, but they are not exactly blameless are they.

Hindsight this video is pretty damn accurate so far

@sprintfoxy1240

5 ай бұрын

no not really...Ignoring the neo-nazi problem in Ukraine isn't accurate

Good plan for both two countries

3:19 Regular Russian soldiers have been involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict from day one. It was unmarked Russian soldiers that rolled into Ukraine. When the Ukrainians counter-attacked the separatists and were knocking on Donetsk's doorstep it was the Russian Army that drove them back, not mercenaries or private volunteers. This was conclusively proven by Simon Ostrovsky, for example, following a trail of clues left on social media by a Russian soldier from Siberia.

@robertmaybeth3434

Жыл бұрын

I've studied war for 50 years, and the only thing I know about it for sure, is you rarely can get a good perspective on a war while hostilities are on-going. For most of the conflict the best most observers can do is keep score.

@ivandankob7112

Жыл бұрын

Yup, even though this video seemingly supports Ukraine, it has this 'not everything is clearly black & white' flavor

@ivandankob7112

Жыл бұрын

@@robertmaybeth3434 if a private military corp is funded by the government, its no longer 'private'

@Andrii87

Жыл бұрын

Exactly

@frosum179

Жыл бұрын

Indeed, I didn't think that the "little green men" were still a contentious subject. Russian soldiers, without identifying markings, crossed the border and bolstered local separatist militias.

Well, you seem to have gotten one think spot on. "If Russia were worried about the long-term capacity of Ukraine, one would expect a more general campaign focused on destroying more Ukrainian infrastructure."

@JordanA101

5 ай бұрын

They've been trying. Ukraine has air defenses and a relatively large territory.

@laurajones5784

4 ай бұрын

Also they do not want to build it again

Excellent video generally though.

Energy listed as number 5 and yet this is the reason that can explain both Georgia and Syria wars. War in Georgia stopped pipeline from Kaspian sea and war in Syria stopped the pipeline from Qatar.

This content is some of the best I have heard on this topic.

The Viktor joke was honestly hilarious

If 2014 hadn`t happened or if somebody respected Minsk 1 or Minsk 2, even if the Boris Johnson didn't cancel the Istambul accord, this would be possible.

Watching this as of August 2023 is still extremely relevant. Great show, William. Thanks.

You say that there was suspicion of Russia funding the DPR or LPR, when they were actually founded directly as a result of Russian volunteers (soldiers) and Russian FSB agents invading Eastern Ukraine in 2014 and taking control of various cities. Igor Girkin, the FSB agent who led the insurrection on behalf of the Russian government, boasted about it saying "if our unit had not crossed the border, everything would have ended as it did in Kharkiv and in Odesa". There was zero actual popular pro Russian movements in Eastern Ukraine. Their protests were, at their max, numbered in the few thousands in cities of nearly a million. In contrast, the Euromaiden protest in Kyiv alone had 1 million protesters in a city of 4.5 million. The entire conflict was started by Russia. They directly invaded Ukraine to create a puppet government, funded the puppet government, and then intervened even more when said puppet government was nearly defeated and pushed directly to the Russian border.

@ranjaschildt9966

Жыл бұрын

There are other counties with 2 different populations, no hostility betwen them and most peoiple are bi-lingual and do their military service together.

@TheRatlord74

Жыл бұрын

Wow. You couldn't be more wrong. This conflict started when the US armed and funded the right sector in Ukraine who then went on to massacre people in maiden Square. They then burned specifically Russian speakers in the odessa trade union building.

@ImBigFloppa

Жыл бұрын

@@TheRatlord74 Were the 1 million protesters in Kyiv alone all Right Sector members armed with the (checks notes) bats, signs, and the occasional air rifle, all funded by America? Is that the best America could provide? How was it a massacre? Pro Russian soldiers gunned down protesters with machine guns and sniper rifles. 9x more Maidan protesters died than anti Maidan counter protesters died. Why do you Putin simps grasp onto Ukrainians that speak Russian like a mother to their baby? It's a language. Speaking Russian doesn't instantly make you pro Russian, it goes no further than what people around you speak. The only reason Russian is spoken more in Eastern Ukraine is because of the genocide targeted at Ukrainians in the 30s, with Russians colonizing the Ukrainian lands. Also I love how you mention the Odessa fire when it occurred nearly a month after Russia invaded Eastern Ukraine to create the DPR, and about 2.5 months after Russia invaded Crimea.

@carlustin4034

Жыл бұрын

@@ranjaschildt9966 If one of the population is Russian you must forget your mother tongue . Otherwise Siberia or dead by bullet or through starvation as it happened in Ukraine ,Crimea many times. The dead and exiled are substituted by loyal colonists.

@wingedvictory8694

27 күн бұрын

@@carlustin4034for real russians are one of the only people who would force people in other countries to speak russian even though they are a minority

Best historical view for those of us who have trouble understanding this war. Thanks

In football the home team usually wins.

Heyy I almost didn't think this was your channel @William Spaniel😮 So Nice to listen to your voice here .... in the lateral videos I get distracted by the way you pronounce the ends of the words. This is much nicer 👍

This was going pretty well until you got into the abstraction where you determined that any division of territory that rewards Russia with between 20% and 30% of Ukrainian territory “is mutually preferable to war”. So, if some guys come into your house and say “We’ll work with you on this. Just give us 20 to 30% of your stuff, (while we beat up your kids).” Then you’d be OK with that? If not - that would be puzzling. I guess your a big fan of the Sykes-Picot Agreement. That worked out really well! 😂

@rsjmail

Жыл бұрын

Also, you should read the comments from Y Ukraine? Maybe he can take some of the puzzlement out of why the Ukrainians are willing to fight this war.

I disagree with the military settlement in form of graphic representation like that. Wars and other objectives are more complicated than mathematical operations. For instance, ww2 agreement is settled at Yalta Conference which have probably major influence on the Russian political sphere on thinking on war like this. And geopolitical influence has many thoughts on major powers in the world.

@lukea.907

Жыл бұрын

It like the guy who made this video thought " How can I best do my part for the western prooeganda establishment media"? And voila! This came out. He must want a job at the New York Slimes one day.

What a channel!!

Paraphrasing Michael Drozdovsky. Our main disagreement with the Europeans is on the agrarian issue: - they want to bury us in our land, and we don’t want them to walk on it.

Very informative. Thank you!

I have appreciated listening to your analysis of the causes of the Ukraine war, which I would classify as “traditional theory”. It provides a good picture of the historical/political issues which may have contributed to the start of the war. The underlying assumption behind this type of analysis is that wars come about when a certain combination of events conspire together to make war inevitable, a bit like Mearsheimer’s theory that it was actually the West who brought this war about. However I would argue that this type of thinking is a red herring. It’s a bit like saying that Neville Chamberlain made Hitler invade Poland. It blinds you to the real nature of what you’re dealing with. I would argue that in order to better understand the real reasons for wars we need to have a better understanding of the evil men who start them. Ultimately this war has been caused because of the decision of one man; and so the question we need to be pondering is not: what are the circumstances that led to this war? But rather: what were Putin’s real motives in starting this war? Because whatever his real motives were, you can be sure that he won’t be telling us. 1. Do not be deceived. Do not believe anything that comes out of Putin’s lips. He is a proven liar. Whatever Putin says, don’t believe it. He has spent the last 30 years playing the international community for fools. If he’s not telling a downright lie then it’s a half-truth designed to deceive and trick. So, when Putin says he is not going to invade Ukraine, in truth his plans to invade are already underway. When he says his reasons for starting this war is NATO expansionism, or Mother Russia, or Nazis, or re-establishing historical Soviet borders, you can be absolutely certain he does not believe a word of it. It’s a smokescreen. 2. Putin is no patriot. He is a crook. Arguably he is the greatest crook in history, a corrupt KGB agent who is reputed to be the richest man in the world because he has spent years plundering his country’s enormous natural wealth through corrupt oligarchs. If Putin had cared about the glory of Mother Russia then he would never have fleeced it for his personal gain. Despite his rants about the glories of the old Soviet Empire, in truth he has never cared a hoot about it. That sort of flim-flam is put out for the consumption of his gung-ho generals, and for those Russians who remain patriotic even as atrocities are emerging from the battlefield. The culture Putin has created in Russia is based entirely on corruption; and that corruption comes from the top. If your own president is on the take then why shouldn’t you also be on the take? And if you are on the take then the status quo of corruption becomes a system worth being patriotic about. But patriotism is not what motivates Putin; his “patriotism” is simply more deceit. In truth, Putin has brought his country into the same sort of disgrace that Hitler brought on Germany. 3. Dictators only care about one person: themselves. In order to secure his position as dictator Putin has systematically dismantled the institutions of law in Russia. Political opponents can realistically expect to eventually meet a gruesome death, perhaps even by an exotic poison. Putin has destroyed the free press. He has turned the legal justice system into a puppet. He has removed any shred of genuine democracy by having himself made president (= dictator) for life. 4. Evil dictators are intrinsically insecure. They suspect that everyone around them is just as evil and ruthless as they are. They know full well from history that the fate that befalls most evil dictators is that they will be murdered by their own countrymen. Uppermost in their consciousness therefore is the need to do whatever is necessary to avoid the same fate. 5. Wars of aggression are also invariably started by evil dictators. Unlike conscientious leaders, evil dictators have no compunction in shedding other peoples’ blood; or in shedding their own people’s blood for that matter. Indeed, starting an external war of aggression has always been a staple favourite for insecure dictators, for the following three reasons: a) An external war mobilises the people behind a common patriotic cause, which provides a wonderful distraction for the grumbling masses - especially when faced with a growing anti-corruption movement under Alexei Navalny. In Putin’s case, his approval rating at home has soared since the start of the war. b) An external war provides a perfect opportunity to crack down on dissidents, bring in draconian wartime legislation, get rid of the free press and to remove political opponents en masse, whether by arrest or simply by making them leave the country. Putin has done all of these. c) A war provides dictators with an ideal opportunity to emasculate the one thing they really view as the greatest threat to their own personal safety: their own army. Being able to tie up your generals in an external war is a great strategy for deterring them from turning their attention inwards. Prior to Ukraine, Putin has already prosecuted brutal, unprovoked wars in Chechnya and Syria; it’s part of his playbook. 6. Another thing about evil dictators is that they are complete pricks. Please excuse the base language; polite language does not convey the thing with any justice. Everything is about them. Soviet Russia has a great tradition in this regard: for example, at the end of Stalin’s rallies everyone would stand and carry on clapping - sometimes literally for hours - because everyone was terrified to be the first person to stop clapping. In Putin’s case he wants everyone to know that he is somebody of significance, someone everyone should fear, a hard man, a big man; when in truth he’s a slimy criminal nobody who suffers with small “angry man” syndrome. I am not alone in holding this view of the causes of the Ukraine War. People who have had personal dealings with Putin such as Bill Browder and Mikhail Khordokovsky have expressed similar views elsewhere: that Putin’s principal goals were always his own political survival; and his own self-aggrandisement. This is because at heart he has proved himself to be a jackass who thinks like a jackass. Even worse, he is a KGB jackass; a veritable jackass of jackasses. This is actually what we are dealing with. The sooner the West realises this and stands up to him, the sooner the bloodshed will end.

@BunkrMan

Жыл бұрын

It's unbelievable what a bunch of nonsense you've spewed. Step away from the mirror and stop projecting, because everything you wrote says more about you than it has to do with reality. It would not be better to try to look at the bigger picture, because simplifying things like this will not help you understand the world around you.

@joeyanny8018

Жыл бұрын

Putin just needs to be loved and respected like all human beings. He’s not evil but he sure ain’t perfect. After all, let the folks haven’t sinned throw the first nuke. Oops!!! Don’t tell the Indians. “Can’t we all just get along?” J

Hesekiel 38:Ennustus Googile 1 Ja mulle tuli Issanda sõna; ta ütles: 2 „Inimesepoeg, pööra oma pale Googi poole Maagoogi maal; ta on Meseki ja Tubali vürst, ja kuuluta temale prohvetlikult 3 ning ütle: Nõnda ütleb Issand Jumal: Vaata, ma tulen sulle kallale, Goog, Meseki ja Tubali vürst. 4 Ma talutan sind ringi ja panen haagid su lõuapäradesse; ma toon välja sinu ja kogu su sõjaväe, hobused ja ratsanikud, kõik toredasti riietatud, suurte ja väikeste kilpidega suure jõugu, kes kõik on mõõga käsitsejad. 5 Pärsia, Etioopia ja Puut on koos nendega, neil kõigil on kilbid ja kiivrid; 6 Gomer ja kõik ta jõugud; Toogarma sugu kõige kaugemast põhjast ja kõik ta jõugud - paljud rahvad on koos sinuga. 7 Ole valmis ja varusta ennast, sina ja kogu su väehulk, kes on kogunenud su juurde, ja ole neile juhiks! 8 Paljude päevade pärast kutsutakse sind, aastate möödudes pead sa tulema maale, mis mõõga järelt on taastatud, rahva juurde, kes on kogutud paljude rahvaste seast Iisraeli mägedele, mis olid kaua laastatud; see rahvas on ära toodud rahvaste seast ja nad kõik elavad julgesti. 9 Siis sa tõused, tuled nagu maru, oled nagu pilv, mis katab maad, sina ja kõik su väehulgad, ja paljud rahvad koos sinuga. 10 Nõnda ütleb Issand Jumal: Sel päeval tõuseb sul midagi südamesse ja sa pead kurja nõu 11 ning ütled: „Ma lähen üles lahtise maa kallale; ma tulen nende rahulike kallale, kes elavad julgesti - nad kõik elavad müürita ja neil ei ole riive ega uksi -, 12 et saada saaki ja riisuda, mis on riisuda, et pöörata oma kätt taasasustatud varemete vastu ja rahva vastu, kes on kogutud paganate seast, kes on soetanud karja ja varandust, kes elavad maa südames.” 13 Seeba ja Dedan ning Tarsise kaupmehed ja kõik ta kaubitsejad küsivad sinult: „Kas tuled saaki saama? Kas oled kogunud oma jõugud riisuma, mis on riisuda, ära viima hõbedat ja kulda, võtma karja ja varandust, saama suurt saaki?” 14 Seepärast kuuluta prohvetlikult, inimesepoeg, ja ütle Googile: Nõnda ütleb Issand Jumal: Eks ole? Sel päeval, kui mu Iisraeli rahvas elab julgesti, hakkad sa liikuma 15 ja tuled oma asukohast, kõige kaugemast põhjast, sina ja koos sinuga paljud rahvad, kes kõik ratsutavad hobustel - suur väehulk, rohkearvuline sõjavägi. 16 Sa tõused mu Iisraeli rahva vastu nagu pilv, et katta maad; see sünnib viimseil päevil: siis ma toon su oma maa kallale, et paganad võiksid tundma õppida mind, kui ma nende silme ees näitan oma pühadust sinu kaudu, Goog. 17 Nõnda ütleb Issand Jumal: Eks see ole sina, kellest ma rääkisin muistseil päevil oma sulaste, Iisraeli prohvetite läbi, kes sel ajal kuulutasid aastast aastasse, et ma toon sind nende kallale? 18 Aga sel päeval - päeval, kui Goog tuleb Iisraeli maa kallale, ütleb Issand Jumal, tõuseb mu vihaleek. 19 Oma raevus ja vihatules ma räägin: Tõesti, sel päeval on suur maavärisemine Iisraeli maal. 20 Ja minu ees värisevad kalad meres ja linnud taeva all ja metsloomad ja kõik roomajad, kes maa peal roomavad, ja kõik inimesed, kes on maapinnal; ja mäed kistakse maha ning kitsasteed varisevad kokku, ja kõik müürid langevad maa peale. 21 Ja ma kutsun mõõga tema vastu kõigi oma mägede peale, ütleb Issand Jumal: ühe mõõk on teise vastu. 22 Ma käin temaga kohut katku ja vere abil; ja ma lasen sadada vihmavalinguid ja raheteri, tuld ja väävlit tema ja ta jõukude peale ja nende paljude rahvaste peale, kes on koos temaga. 23 Nõnda näitan ma oma suurust ja pühadust ning teen ennast tuttavaks paljude paganate silme ees. Ja nad saavad tunda, et mina olen Issand.

That's very unique Ideology ever.

thanks for all the numbers. very cool and informative.

Don’t forget that after 2014, Ukraine did a modest build up but didn’t have as much international full support and weaponization as they see now. That could swing the balance back to their original borders if supplied and trained appropriately.

@krevetka9744

Жыл бұрын

They got the weapons and support during 2015 Minsk "peace" negotiations as cover up to buy some time.

@rossib6974

10 ай бұрын

English bulls ! You sure won't rest till there is nothing left to be called Ukraine

@anjafark

10 ай бұрын

Yeah weil, looks like the "west" is not as much into war, than Russia would like the world to believe..

@Emilia-wy8zh

8 ай бұрын

Original border?! What original border ?! Ukraine îs a made-up country,from ukrainian,russian,polish,romanian,moldovan and hungarian territories..A Monster of Frankenstein,Ukraine..

@Emilia-wy8zh

8 ай бұрын

Ukraine îs a Monster of Frankenstein.

Another potential cause as peter zeihan points out is future security concern. Right now the western front is long and insecure especially by a aging Russian population. By trying to close the gap now they can make future defense easier.

Solutions, that's what I want to hear.

Make peace let their be love together and peace many people have died one ❤️🙏