"In Truth, all of Macroeconomics is Black Magic, and no one is ever really sure about what is actually happening" as someone with 10 years of experience & a masters degree in Macroeconomics, I want this engraved on my headstone.

@jackthorton10

6 ай бұрын

That would be a rather perplexing headstone 🪦… but then again, It would at least prove a point

@77thTrombone

6 ай бұрын

As a holder of a technical master's degree, I can attest that the biggest lesson of such a degree is to make you aware of how much you don't know. The epitaph is credible.

@mandelorean6243

6 ай бұрын

Your headstone will say "when someone figures out macroeconomics, please dig me up and let me know"

@prabuddhaghosh7022

6 ай бұрын

Macroeconomics is closest to Psychohistory. You cant really predict individual events but can predict general trends as the variables cancel out. Hari Seldon approves of your headstone

@miriamweller812

6 ай бұрын

Oh, they know what is happening: It's PR bullshit to trick the masses to exploit them. That's the whole point of it. Nothing new.

Inflation, bank collapse, severe drought in the agricultural belt, recession, food shortages, diesel fuel and heating oil shortages, baby formula shortages, available automobile shortages and prices, the price of living place.

@StocksWolf752

2 ай бұрын

It has never been simpler to grasp how to expand your wealth than it is right now, thanks to the availability of competent portfolio advisors that can help you experience and learn about a market with a wide range of assets. I think it's impossible to predict how changing dollar values will affect assets.

@StacieBMui

2 ай бұрын

Yes, I have been in touch with a CFP ever since the outbreak. Today, investing in hot stocks is quite easy; the difficult part is deciding when to buy and sell. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my adviser chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.

@EleanorBaker474

2 ай бұрын

Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?

@StacieBMui

2 ай бұрын

The advisor that guides me is Sonya lee Mitchell, most likely the internet is where to find her basic info, just search her name. She's established.

@HectorSnipes

2 ай бұрын

thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

"In contrast, you have $4bn in your book budget account-" has got to be one of your best book plugs so far; no AI could ever write with such big-brain wit. Keep up the great work, Prof. Spaniel!

@Dommifax

6 ай бұрын

Without reading this comment I wouldn't have noticed him being a professor - though tbh I should've guessed with him advertising his book after each video as at least half of my professors do that too

Based on reports from people like Nikki Proshin and others when comparing grocery prices between March 2022 and March 2023, food inflation rates are running from 30-50%.

@moonasha

6 ай бұрын

I've heard russians comment about inflation too, how it's been bad for them, one of them was saving up dollars even (was on twitch and my russian isn't that great so could be wrong)

@atomic_bomba

6 ай бұрын

All of these things are severely location dependent. In general - Russia is a very isolationist nation. The bank system is designed around the event that the global exchange pushes us away, not *just* incase it happens. The current recession isn't a fraction as bad as western media portrays it. That isn't to say things are not deteriorating, they are, slowly: but the primary victims are those who live far away from metropolis and cities. Food in Russia is still cheaper than America, and so is petrol. I paid 218 roubles for 4 liters the other day. The Americans are painting this catastrophic picture of our nation collapsing meanwhile their own government who does not give a damn about them is sending billions to foriegn conflicts that do not have the interests of the average worker in mind, only military investors. It is a very sad situation and world that we live in.

@AndRei-yc3ti

6 ай бұрын

​@@moonashainflation is happening everywhere and Russias level of inflation is lower than the UK. Grocery stores are stocked and food is accesible and cheap since Russia produces its own food. Prices have increased for things that need "parallel imports" and can take a while to deliver (like electronics and parts for some cars) but its not like you cant get them or that they are exorbitantly expensive lol. I speak fluent Russian and am a Ukrainian living in Russia

@atomic_bomba

3 ай бұрын

@@handle1603 Same can be said about American healthcare. What's your point?

@TheInfamousMrFox

2 ай бұрын

​@@AndRei-yc3tiBS. Inflation in the UK is 3%. In ruSSia, the stated rate is 7%. However that's largely propaganda, most economists agree their real rate is north of 20%.

William, to pick a nit, I don't think the issue with failure to harvest a wheat crop promptly when it is ready to be harvested is that, as you said, "it dies." The plants actually die in in the late summer. The grain seeds then lose enough moisture that they are in the proper condition to be harvested and stored. If the wheat is not harvested before the snow falls the stems of the plants will fold over. It is also very difficult and can become impossible to harvest wheat when it is covered with snow. Also, grain in the field will eventually start absorbing moisture and will mold when the weather warms.🤓 Other than this, thanks for another awesome lecture professor Spaniel !

@FlorinArjocu

6 ай бұрын

When the weat is ripe, you have just a few weeks to harvest. If you miss that window, you cannot harvest at all. I mean you could try, but that is animal food, at best. It will get dark and molds, bacteria and other pests will have a huge party over the fields.

@kathrynstewart-mcdonald

6 ай бұрын

You are exactly right. Of course we know the wheat dries in summer on the stem ,but too much rainfall is also a problem.

@timothyallen6411

6 ай бұрын

Regarding the wheat nits, it is clear (to me, at least) that Spaniel has taken a page from the way Sabine does science videos in an attempt (quite successful, I think) to make accessible to the public an otherwise indigestible cocktail of partial differential calculus, the dismal science, a horrific war, and soulless autocracy -- with a sprinkling of bone-dry humor (e.g., having prices range from a low of zero up to "Taylor Swift tickets.") Clearly there are plenty of similar nits; however, as I see it the point is not so much the mechanical details of computing first or second partial derivatives or wheat harvest dates, but rather it is the combination of visuals and narrative (delivered, by the way, in a decreasing monotone as he does more episodes) to illustrate tangled linkages across broad and complex topics in a memorable manner. Very useful. In conclusion, although I was a few Rubles short of 4B, I did buy his book and found it an interesting approach ("lines on maps") to understanding how rational actors might pursue politics by other means and decide to start, continue or seek to end fighting a war.

@RichardTaylor1630

6 ай бұрын

@@timothyallen6411 Understood, but how hard would it have been to say "if not harvested within a certain window, the wheat 'molds or rots'...'" instead of "dies"?

@noyopacific

6 ай бұрын

@@RichardTaylor1630 I would have been content (and not noticed any issue) if Dr. Spaniel had said that. FYI, I'm a serious fan, I've read his book on Game Theory and been following this KZread channel for 2+ years.

Sanctions don't mean they can't get stuff from other countries. It means they have to pay multitudes more for them than before.

@UGNAvalon

6 ай бұрын

And that the companies risk paying large fines if they accidentally violate the sanctions, meaning that many won’t bother trying at all.

@viewasag8612

3 ай бұрын

Честно говоря , это и правда и не правда . Дело в том что некоторые товары народного потребления (компьютеры , телевизоры , еда , одежда , бытовая химия и прочее ) стали даже дешевле из-за того что с них убрали пошлины и ввозить из стали массово . А другие товары , зачастую двойного назначения , действительно стало покупать дороже , например американские чипы , двигатели и взрыватели . Немецкие станки и прочее .

Wheat seems to have an extremely narrow harvest window - it's not just "We need to get it sometime before winter", it's "It wasn't dry enough on Monday, but if we're not done before the rain on Saturday we'll suffer so much loss from lodging and fungus that it bankrupts us". The field needs to act as a carefully calibrated dehydrator before it goes into the silo. Staggered planting and per-field measurement of moisture levels help, but before the threshing machines and then combine harvester was invented wheat-growing regions required a standing army of hundreds of ag workers with hand tools per square kilometer ready to work furiously long hours on every farm in the area for a few slim weeks.

@hieronymusbutts7349

6 ай бұрын

And then you also have to worry about dragons burninating the fields and the peasants. You bastard.

@DopravniPoradce

6 ай бұрын

I know this too. By watching Clarkson's Farm. 😂😂😂

@ridethecurve55

6 ай бұрын

Ahh, yes! The Good old Days!

@Arc115YT

6 ай бұрын

Didn't expect to learn about grain harvesting today. Pleasant surprise.

@difox5731

6 ай бұрын

I would add that freeze on local prices of oil/gas products (demand rises globally so in order to not price out local consumers govt makes some manipulations like limits and bans on export) happens every year since Putin came to power.

In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.

@AndrewSandy712

6 ай бұрын

The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.

@SerinaGliues

6 ай бұрын

Despite utilizing the correct strategies and possessing the right assets, there can still be variations in the investment returns among different investors. It is important to acknowledge that experience plays a crucial role in investment success. Personally, I realized the significance of this and sought the guidance of a market analyst, which enabled me to substantially grow my account to nearly a million. I strategically withdrew my profits just before the market correction, and now I am taking advantage of the buying opportunities once again.

@pineedbydmoon

6 ай бұрын

Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one

@SerinaGliues

6 ай бұрын

I am being advised by Stacie Lynn Winson, an experienced financial professional. If you're interested, you can easily find more information about her as she has accumulated years of expertise in the financial market.

@andytunnah7650

6 ай бұрын

Ah yes, crypto, that famously stable investment opportunity.

the moment you said macroeconomic implications, youtube started a commercial😂

I don't think that India would be badly affected by a Russian refined products ban (Russia banned refined oil produce export, not crude exports). India imported lots of crude but very little refined. They import Russian crude, refine it, and resell the refined products, effectively competing with Russia's refined products.

@wolfswinkel8906

6 ай бұрын

Russia's refined products are for Russia. What the heck makes you think they're trying to compete with India? India is their middleman to sell their oil to Europe.

@patwilson2546

6 ай бұрын

@@wolfswinkel8906 You misread my post, or maybe I was not clear. I never said that Russia wants to compete with India. India is opportunistically competing with Russia and using Russia's own crude to do it. India is exporting refined oil products in a way that it never could before it started importing all of that cheap Russian crude.

@wolfswinkel8906

6 ай бұрын

@@patwilson2546 you can't talk about "competition" with Russia if Russia is not in the EU market at all. India is exploiting the weakness of the EU by violating the sanctions (remember when the West tried to pressure India to comply with the sanctions) and still selling to the EU at the same time. Both Russia and India make money off sales of petroleum to Europe, while Russia continues to sell to other markets at the same time. That's not "opportunistically competing with Russia", that's collusion between both.

@patwilson2546

6 ай бұрын

@@wolfswinkel8906 " India is exploiting the weakness of the EU". That is a bizarre and interesting take. I'll leave you to it. You have earned your potato for the day.

@hj2711

6 ай бұрын

⁠@@wolfswinkel8906you know it’s not exploitation when everyone knows it. Eu could have banned that oil long times ago if they want to ban it. Plus most of the Russian oil is used for domestic market not export. Don’t worry soon South American oil will replace Russian oil.

Finally, someone explained "year on year" and how to calculate inflation in a way that I could understand, and ironically, it needed to come from a specialist in war.

@adrianpolomsky358

6 ай бұрын

Specialist on war? That is every troll from Kremlin and paid by Putino that never work in his life. :D

@philipb2134

6 ай бұрын

Were your facilities so blunted that your perception of inflation had been frozen in the Siberian tundra?

@happyjohn1656

6 ай бұрын

@@philipb2134 what

@philipb2134

6 ай бұрын

@@happyjohn1656 haven't you been aware that the inflation rate has come down sharply? It's down by more than half since the 9% peak?

@happyjohn1656

6 ай бұрын

@@philipb2134 yes okay

Stalling a large machine takes time and effort. While it was initially easy for Russia to hide the effects of sanctions, it has only added to the depth of the hole they're falling in to. Fun fact about big engines is that the bigger the engine, the bigger the starter it need to start rolling again.

@gunterodim1535

6 ай бұрын

yes yes)) Russia is about to fall apart)) Sanctions have a long-term effect, their results will only be in a year or two) They wrote this 2 years ago) And Russia still lives as before the sanctions and increases its standard of living to the European average.

@diogorodrigues747

6 ай бұрын

@@gunterodim1535 Sure, Ivan. The exchange rate of the ruble vs dollar and other currencies says otherwise.

@chrisavithan9951

6 ай бұрын

@@gunterodim1535 How much does sitting in a Russian troll farm pay per day, I wonder? And do you take your pay in rubbles, or do you prefer dollars?

@mossion

6 ай бұрын

Exactly 💯

@Lucyhehe_

6 ай бұрын

​@@gunterodim1535how much potatoe cost now and 3 years ago?

Fun thing about crude oil. A reduction in refinement doesn't just mean a reduction in gasoline and diesel fuel. It also means a significant reduction in distillates such as engine oil and hydraulic fluid. It seems probable that Russians may be dealing with a cold winter due to a reduction in heating oil supply. It also seems probable that the reduction in oil and hydraulic fluids will have unintended side effects in the war and outside of it. It may be a rough winter for the Russians and even worse for the MoD.

@Conservator.

6 ай бұрын

Putin will do everything to avoid that. He really fears civil unrest.

@nemezc

6 ай бұрын

I wouldn't call a rough winter for the MoD "worse"

@kbmw494

6 ай бұрын

After Russia kinzhals a few Ukrainian power facilities and then Ukraine reciprocates with cigarette parties at some refineries, the whole lubricants supply chain will slide out the window.

@user-lz7wb7tg4g

6 ай бұрын

What are you smoking, gentlemen? The video is a dog's nonsense... I haven't seen such nonsense for a long time.

@alanmcmillan6969

6 ай бұрын

A fair bet this has not been ignored.

Elvira Nabiullina is quite possibly the only major Russian public official that's turned out to really know what they're doing. Nothing she's done is shocking or surprising per se, but she's mostly made the right moves, at the right times and played a very weak hand well. It may not be a winnable scenario in the ling term - I hope not at least - but she bought the Kremlin time it wouldn't otherwise have.

@candiman4243

6 ай бұрын

Perhaps it's because bank officials aren't really seen as a threat to Putin's power if they are too competent at their job. They only threaten him when incompetent because all the blame (for good or bad things) lies on Putin's shoulders in the eyes of the public

@epronovost6539

6 ай бұрын

I kind of hate the fact she is so much more competent than the rest of Russia's political class and even more competent than most of her peers in developed nation. In a just world, she probably should hold Putin's job.

@IconoclastX

6 ай бұрын

Joke. That woman would probably surrender to the U.S. to have the Russian constitution rewritten like they did to Japan. It takes a man to run a country like Russia. Maybe in a satellite western country like Estonia; where the leader can't really do anything domestically because of all the global treaties they're in; and they'll always be guarded by the U.S.: then you can have a girl. But in Russia where the leadership of the leader actually determines the direction of the country; instead of hidden bureaucratic forces; you'll need a man.

@IconoclastX

6 ай бұрын

That's also another uncomfortable fact for feminists because we never see any female dictators. We see tons of female "presidents" but these are always in countries where they again have little power and are figureheads. In important countries that actually have to fight for their survival and can't just cling to some higher power(like the U.S.) we never see any female leaders. When it's actually consequential; they never show up. Weird@@epronovost6539

@danielmorris8748

6 ай бұрын

​@@epronovost6539Yeah competent people never seem to be in the places they are needed most.

I think we are too obsessed about the economy crashing. In the right sense, the economy never crashes. It just undergoes cycles, and almost always recovers. So I really don't care what the predictions are. I just want to grow my portfolio. I read that people are pulling in massive profits despite the downturn. Any tips on how they do it?

@fadhshf

6 ай бұрын

The market will always recover. The goal is to find quality stocks with long term potential. It's hard for the average Joe to do this, because it involves following a lot of industry news, following up with earnings, etc. It's easier to invest through an advisor who knows how stuff works, and make rocket returns.

@hasede-lg9hj

6 ай бұрын

Investing in quality stocks with long-term potential is a good strategy, but it can be challenging for the average person to do this on their own. Keeping up with industry news and earnings can be time-consuming and difficult. That's why it's easier to work with an advisor who can help you make informed decisions and potentially achieve high returns.

@lowcostfresh2266

6 ай бұрын

@@hasede-lg9hj Well if isn’t that the hard truth…this investment-adviser that guides you must really on to something…who is he?

@hasede-lg9hj

6 ай бұрын

It’s a She actually, Vivian Carol Gioia I initially came across her on a CNBC news report then on smartadvisors and I decided to hit her up. Best decision I made to stay afloat 2020.

@leojack9090

6 ай бұрын

Thank you for sharing; I will need all the help I can get because I recently sold some of my assets in order to invest in the stock market.

Perun discussed some of this before but given the complexity of the topic, its always nice to go over it again.

“Macroeconomics puts people to sleep” me with an economics degree :O

@matfax

6 ай бұрын

You don't complain about his outdated monetarist views on inflation?

@Vinzmannn

6 ай бұрын

And he was right. Rather than go hungry because you can't find a job, you sleep ;)

@tuqe

6 ай бұрын

@@matfax Oh absolutely, the right wing ideas around supply side economics and the subsidy machine as a form of governance are silly. Demand side economics recognizes the reality of a consumer economy

@matfax

6 ай бұрын

@@tuqe It's funny because in Europe, this basically has become the new justification for the same useless inflation mechanism. Instead of monetary supply, we're now trying to "calm the markets" by setting the right "expectations". Which is supposed to become sort of a self fulfilling inflation mechanism. It only works as long as people keep believing in the false myth that key interest rates were important. Without any ground truth (or barely any), it still roughly works because of the psychological effect of prevalent monetarist views. All that, of course, at the cost of destroying the economy that relies on cheap money for investments, which might eventually lead to even greater inflation because people have less income, which lowers demand. Key interest rates are a slippery slope.

@tuqe

6 ай бұрын

@@matfax Its almost like government can direct spending through the taxation of abnormal profit makers (usually monopolising) and direct that money to real infrastructure (built with wages that, through progressive taxation immediately fund future works (Fiscal Multiplier)). Or heck even yknow, borrow on the assumption that highly directed investment will grow an economy over the record low interest rates weve had over the last decade and have the bond markets fund an economic miracle. But no lets make it cheaper to produce things through massive handouts or hand waving (even though through labour right inequalities we can never compete on price) with the hope that it will just be fixed. Fuck I hate right wing economics

Excellent as always; some of the deepest and most comprehensive analyses I'm able to find anywhere.

@spudwesth

3 ай бұрын

B S

You call it black magic, but this is one of the most clear explanations on how an economy functions I’ve seen on KZread, excellent presentation

@kn9ioutom

6 ай бұрын

PUTIN IS A DICTATOR ! TRUMPSTER IS A WANNA BE !

@samuela-aegisdottir

6 ай бұрын

agree

One thing to clear up - Russia did not do an “oil export ban”. Rather, they temporarily banned export of REFINED oil products like gasoline and diesel.

The video is a great summary. A lot of people don't understand percentages in the context of inflation.

@spudwesth

3 ай бұрын

B S

your content is so good i watch it with my parents when i visit weekly

Sick information my dude

16:22 That's not at all how exponentiation works. It isn't linear. Say the monthly inflation rate is 1%. That means every month, the price of a good will be 1% higher, or 1.01 times as high, as it was the month before. After 12 months, the price will be 1.01^12 ≈ 1.127 times as high, that is 12.7% higher. You need 12.7% more money to buy the same good as you did at the start of the year. This is close to, but crucially isn't 12%.

Love the analysis, keep these videos coming!

Thanks. I understand a bit more about inflation. The graphics did help.

Thanks for the interesting video.

As a life long D&D gamer...when you said dice weren't for sale in Russia, it took me far longer than it should have to realize that was a rhetorical example...and was very sad... Because this is a "heart-warming" topic to begin with!

True numbers are being reflected in the cost of living A loaf of bread, a bag of potatoes, a bucket of apples, a Kwatt electricity

Best one yet

the segway into the book plug has become like a little treat at the end of the video :D

Really appreciate the education -- eyes glazed over a few times -- but such a critical area to follow! Thank you for taking the time to explain in simple terms for those of us who need it...

@Taletad

6 ай бұрын

Basically, the takeaway is that the Russian economy is suffering massively and the government is running out of options to postpone the negative effects on the population

@EdT.-xt6yv

6 ай бұрын

No tourists is a negative for their great museum?

@atomic_bomba

6 ай бұрын

@@Taletad Food is still cheaper than it is in America, and so is housing, and so on. I pay roughly 2USD equivalent (218R) for 4 liters of gasoline. Americans are critiquing our situation while their own is vastly worse and crumbling right before their very eyes. But all's ends well when military investors get their cut of the pie at the end of the day, at least as far as Israel and Ukraine investors are concerned.

@Taletad

6 ай бұрын

@@atomic_bomba americans earn 10 times more than the average russian. If your groceries are only half price compared to americans you’re still poorer Edit : the mean salary in russia (50% russians earn more, 50% earn less) was $500 per month in 2021. In the US at the same time it was $4700 dollars, so 9.4 times more In fact, if you account for purchasing power, Russia is still poorer than the US, Canada and all the EU countries except for Bulgaria who is very close (Google : "gdp per capita ppp europe", ppp = purchasing power parity)

@jonathanbowen3640

6 ай бұрын

@@atomic_bomba Average salary in Russia. 1,240,000 Rubles (RUB) or USD 14,771 (according to the exchange rate in June 2023). Average Salary in the US $53,490 per year Not really comparable. The average US citizen earns many times more $. Way beyond small price differences in food and gas. You dont get many US citizens moving to Russia to have a higher standard of living! LOL

Thank you 💛 so much for your excellent work! Your explanations are so valuable for understanding what is happening in the world and especially the wars. I prefer to stick with Ukraine, rather than Israel. I refuse to get sidetracked. I will stand with Ukraine every day and night. Hoping that peace will come. Thank you again Sir, i enjoyed your excellent video.

@SianaGearz

6 ай бұрын

Israel is one of world's strongest militaries backed by one of world's most productive economies. In spite of mistakes that have been obviously made, it can very much fend for itself, it doesn't really need our worry.

@olgierdvoneverec

6 ай бұрын

As a ukrainian, it is a pleasant thing to read words of support from a stranger on the internet after so much time since the invasion broke out, thank you for that. The peace is not coming anytime soon though, not in a nearest couple of years.

@SianaGearz

6 ай бұрын

@@olgierdvoneverec Not to give you too much false hope, and not something you can count on, but things tend to be impossible to predict. There is a possibility that Russia starts crumbling from the inside, and then it can go awfully quick. We don't know where the limit is, but there is an inherent limit to how many people can be meatcubed before it's enough. A key point is Putin's re-election early next year, it might go "smoothly", it might very well not. It sure would help if Europe and USA were more proactive than reactive with their supplies... huge mistakes were made this and last year by undersupplying Ukraine - this isn't gonna be any cheaper for them in the long run either, there isn't even a tangible reason for all this slow shuffling. Other than bureaucrats' standard instinct to do as little as possible, just so they aren't taking any excessive blame one way or another.

@spudwesth

3 ай бұрын

I stand with Russia ; their cause is just f head

Great content thank you

I can not understand everything right away. But I watched this video two times and it starts to make more sense. Impressed by your informative videos

16:18 The yearly to monthly inflation calculation is wrong. The monthly inflation is the 12th root of the yearly inflation, because each month it's inflation upon the inflation of the previous months. 1.035^(1÷12) ≈ 1.00287 i.e. 0.29 %

Nice job!

Well done William 👍

Sanctions are a creeping form of political enforcement. They also don’t run true to course all the time, with the sanctioned national pushing back with workarounds and back doors etc. But overall, given the determination and economic superiority of the Western coalition, Russia will suffer considerably, over time. They’ll face two problems, popular discontent (which they can probably shrug off to some extent) and diminishing ability to support their military aims, which may not be so easy.

@mryouben

6 ай бұрын

I am wondering if the rf will morf into something resembling more to north korea or iran? It will depend on how long putler is alive.

@Conservator.

6 ай бұрын

@@mryoubenPutin doesn’t have enough power to become a next North Korea or China. Not at the moment anyway.

@Doomrider47

6 ай бұрын

Probably closer to Cuba on much larger scale. Making do with what they have available@@mryouben

@wolfswinkel8906

6 ай бұрын

Sanctions are overrated, especially when we're talking about superpowers like Russia and China with considerable international trade relations with multiple continents. It's arrogant delusion that makes people think that cutting others off will make them "suffer", as if the other 6 billion people on the planet don't exist. Sure, there are arguments to be made about losing access to certain markets, but other smaller economies with untapped potential are wildcards that no one can possibly predict the magnitude of trade benefits they offer.

@AndreLuis-gw5ox

6 ай бұрын

​@@wolfswinkel8906no offense, but if these so called "untapped markets" were really worth a damn, they would already be clogged by western and chinese companies. Truth is, being sanctioned by the larger part of the world economy means you will be dealing in scraps.

Russia has been suffering from deflationary as well as inflationary pressure. At times, demand fell so drastically from Russian consumers that deflation occurred, This was because many consumers were paying only for bare necessities and was purchasing very few "discretionary" items, Deflation resulted, at least for a while.

@kompatybilijny9348

6 ай бұрын

Yeah, it's honestly amusing, but it literally works like climate change. You get global warming, but you also get extremely low temperatures in times and places and also other kinds of extreme weather,like winds and tornadoes. A system thrown out of balance behaves very randomly.

@DavidHalko

6 ай бұрын

@@frankfkling304- he explained it in the video

@EverythingCameFromNothing

6 ай бұрын

@@frankfkling304The ruble has not bounced back, 1 ruble equals 0.011 American dollars. Before Russia invaded Crimea it was around 0.031 USD, representing a lose of two thirds of it’s value!! The Ruble/Russia is in trouble because of Putin!!

@ilyakasnacheev

6 ай бұрын

@@EverythingCameFromNothing Turkish Lira has surely lost way more of its value during the same time, an it's not like they even annexed anything.

@EverythingCameFromNothing

6 ай бұрын

@@ilyakasnacheev what does the turkish lira have to do with anything? This is whataboutism at it’s finest Google says the lira collapse is due to a combination of a sizeable budget hole, an inflation problem and thanks to a couple of years of highly questionable policies, a puny pile of FX reserves…. Sounds a lot like Russia to me 🤷‍♂️ Shame on Russia Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

On point as ever sir.

Wow fantastic video !!

Oil sellers in Russia didn't prefer to export rather than sell to the domestic market solely due to difference in the currencies' purchasing powers. There is a domestic price cap in place, has been for years! Therefore, when the cap didn't change even though the global prices increased, sellers decided to sell abroad for greater prices and thus greater profits.

After all, no matter what is your view on the whole situation in general, you gotta agree that brand new 100 ruble banknote design looks beautiful

@SianaGearz

6 ай бұрын

It should have been a coin, not a banknote.

@LaughingStock_

2 ай бұрын

I wouldn't use it to wipe my arse. I want nothing from that terrorist state anywhere near me.

great info again

Loved this ❤

Macroeconomics is actually pretty good at predicting what will happen; it’s just not very good at predicting when. Therein lies the rub. 😂

Outstanding visuals, excellent narration and clear explanations. A+++

Are there good historical examples of wage-price spirals during wartime that might give us an idea of what could trigger it here? (Not sure exactly how to word that but I hope the question makes sense)

Excellent!

Thanks!

@Gametheory101

6 ай бұрын

Thank you!

Good video, keep it coming

I am intrigued William why you have not included the work of Johns Hopkins Professor Steve Hanke in your discussion on inflation? He created the Hanke inflation dashboard and stated back in August that the real rate of inflation was around 60% in real terms. Considering the excellent work that Johns Hopkins did on monitoring the COVID-19 out brake I for one would consider his work more than credible and worth including at a future date. Other than that I found the presentation excellent Thank you so much.

@RichardTaylor1630

6 ай бұрын

".....work that Johns Hopkins did on monitoring the COVID-19 OUTBREAK...." Automobiles have brakes, except when they are broken.

@neonKow

6 ай бұрын

For anyone reading this, if you think John's Hopkins did good work, you should immediately be suspicious of Steve Hanke, who was and is a vocal covid denier, and has repeatedly been pro-Russia and anti-sanctions during the war in Ukraine. Any good JHU did while tracking the pandemic was IN SPITE of Hanke, not because of it, and he had to be censured for spreading misinformation about Vietnam's covid response because it didn't fit his narrative.

thanks for your video. new subscriber, btw.

Thanks for the video. I appreciate your witty take on issues.

Guys i think this 3 day special military Operation is more than 3 days now or is it just me?

@babanagrahim5439

6 ай бұрын

Russia never put a date on this war however Russia really was sure it will be a short one which did backfire for a while but they have balanced themselves

@benverboonen1108

6 ай бұрын

​@babanagrahim5439 they literally said it would only take a couple days...

@abodabalo

6 ай бұрын

@@babanagrahim5439 Maybe Putin did not explicitly mention 3 days. But many other "official figures" did, on camera.

@giovanni-ed7zq

6 ай бұрын

@@babanagrahim5439 you know what happened in 1990 when the ussr went bankrupt, prostitutes increased and girls were spreading their legs as they always do for money when the economy tanks. you can get your sons butt plugs for the times that are coming also, as they too will have to take that type of work up. let them get use to it early.

@andresr.viguera9791

6 ай бұрын

@@babanagrahim5439 Because nothing screams "short campaign" like sending your soldiers underprepared and with police equipment rather than long campaign supplies, right?

"..Rouble to rubble.." 😂 Touché!

Great video 🎉❤

russias "low inflation" is also because they started with a lot of shrinkflation which they don't take into account as for example. You now buy 0,9L of gasoline instead of 1,0 L. So a 10% increase but their data would show no change. russian youtuber show 40-200% increases of most stuff.

Excellent discussion of core macroeconomic concepts. Thank you.

@alexandertimoschuk8470

6 ай бұрын

The commentary could apply to all countries

Excellent explanation thanks

Amazing ❤️

why ban it totally only to reinstate it? Why not limit exports by less than the current 50% all year round. Wouldn't that reduce the need for a damper payment? since internal prices would remain low(?)

@lepetitroquet9410

6 ай бұрын

The main problem is probably corruption. It's easier to find ways around a 50% ban (numbers are so easy to modify...) than it is to circumvent a total ban.

The lack of a high resolution image spells disaster for Russia

@mindaza0

6 ай бұрын

Windows 95

I like your economic analysis. Please repeat. Thank you

The Yeltsin-Gagarin scale is brilliant! ROFL

I've been anticipating the collapse of Russia to look vaguely like a negative logistic curve. In case you don't know what that is, a logistic curve is an S-shape curve, where the slope increases in an exponential nature until a certain inflection point, after which the slope starts to stabilize once again, but not surpassing a certain limit. The negative curve is the same thing, but in the opposite direction. I suspect that Russia was in the slow section of the negative curve up until now, but now the speed of decline is starting to pick up. My novice hypothesis is that Russia will bottom out in late 2025 or early 2026, assuming this continues with the current state of affairs. But of course, my strength is in mathematics, not geopolitics, so there are a number of things that could cause that curve to look very differently. And I'm happy to hear other perspectives.

@epiclighthd7655

6 ай бұрын

I would say it might be a bit different. During WW1, in order to fund its war machine, Germany issued war bonds and took on debt with the German Central Bank. This debt and the interest on it starts that vicious cycle of having to take on more debt in order to fund the war AND the increasing interest payments. Back then, politicians decided to let the Allies pay off the German war debt (once Germany would have won). In order to keep inflation artificially low, they instituted price controls and left the Gold Standard (which allowed everyone to exchange their Reichsmarks into Gold) in order to avoid a liquidity crisis. This worked out pretty well during the war, where you convert your industry to serve the war effort. But it also decreases the "useful" GDP (useful as in consumer goods or services that increase living standards), so even if your GDP increases (or at least doesnt collapse), it is kinda just inflated. When the war ended, the inflation in Germany was definetly not low, but it also wasnt a Hyperinflation. But thats where the catch is for both Russia and Germany after WW1. (Even though for Germany it was probably worse as the war effort was much more total and war reparations were a huge issue) When the war ends, you have to at some point remove capital and price controls, and prices will necessarily increase (in Macroeconomics, you differentiate between products with high and low Price elasticity of demand, and food prices have a very low price elasticity, so the demand for it wont really decrease that much when the prices increase) because of a economy with a really high money supply (due to government spending towards the war effort), a demand shifting towards consumer goods again (while the supply declined massively) and high government debt. When the war ended in 1918 (obviously it did end in 1919 but in 1918 the demobilisation starts so thats the interesting date in economics), this held-back inflation turned into Hyperinflation, because of the above mentioned effects. And I do think there is a chance the same will happen in Russia. It might not be as bad as it was in Germany, but there will be a really strong increase in inflation once the war measures end and the economy converts back into a civilian time economy.

@Eian_Anderson

6 ай бұрын

What is this curve? What is it plotting?

@vbrotherita

6 ай бұрын

Thanks for this comment, factual and modest.

@me0101001000

6 ай бұрын

@@epiclighthd7655 I guess something similar could take place with the Ruble and either real gold or liquid gold (petroleum). But I see a few factors standing in the way of both of those. First, the fact that gold has been replaced with the US dollar, and that's a matter of deep resentment in Russia. Petroleum because of OPEC's omnipresent influence on anything to do with it or its products. Plus, Germany's case is from a time where macroeconomics was very much in its infancy, so I'm sure with our current knowledge, the case may not be nearly as chaotic, but the impact of the situation will likely be felt many times over around the world due to how interconnected everything is.

@me0101001000

6 ай бұрын

@@Eian_Anderson x axis is time, y axis is GDP. It's not my favorite metric, but it's a pretty solid indicator, all things considered.

Those oil prices though. For real

I do like your analyses.

Danke!

I am. You got me engaged and excited when you started talking about second derivatives.

This is a brilliantly explained analysis. Thank you!

@mortenvikene228

6 ай бұрын

not at all. this is fiction :) and that you belive it, just shows how little you actually know about economics :'D

@markb8468

6 ай бұрын

@mortenvikene228 Could you elaborate, please? Which parts did you disagree with and why?

@mortenvikene228

6 ай бұрын

@@markb8468 well whats the point, if you dont understand how russia's economy is doing today, then ill need to teach you basic world economics first, and i got the feeling you dont want to understand, necause all you want to hear, is "russia bad, russia loosing, ukraine good, and so on.. :) it would be like explaining the law of thermal dynamics to a deaf dumb and blind piglet :'D

@markb8468

6 ай бұрын

@@mortenvikene228 maybe you could point me to some sources then?

@mortenvikene228

6 ай бұрын

@@markb8468 imf is a good start, global gdp, global trade, the fct that eu and usa inflation is critacally high, use google

Suggest to also refer to the non-convertibility problem of huge parts of the Russian oil and gas exports to their „new“ customers. E.g. all exports to India were paid in Indian Rupies in India. Due to the currency control of Indian Rupias, Russia can‘t convert these funds, hence not make any practicable use of it, but only re invest the money within India. So in their books Russia may have created huge export income - just in reality a big part is sunk money, useless for Russia intentions

@advancetotabletop5328

6 ай бұрын

I remember this from Joe Blog, I think. I’m just gonna add that, although the Indian govt authorized Indian companies (banks?) to accept rubles, none of them did. So much for BRICS unity.

@gingernutpreacher

6 ай бұрын

Surely there is a load of Indian crap they can buy with it like cars

@TheOneAndOnlyOuuo

6 ай бұрын

@@advancetotabletop5328 Those banks probably want to be able to transfer funds to western banks and have access to the western financial markets instead of losing all that just to support a rogue state waging war.

@romanshatalin7077

6 ай бұрын

​@@advancetotabletop5328um, there was any BRICS unity at all? In comparison, IMF provided much more financial help all around the world.

@MSDGroup-ez6zk

6 ай бұрын

Putin has made a brilliant move tested how deep the USA pocket is. Now the world knows that the USA can only afford one war only.

Man, you're brilliant.

@atomic_bomba

6 ай бұрын

This video is wishful thinking. Russian resilience is not to be doubted. But stifle away as the American oil prices already are double, often triple that of here.

Thanks

War is an incredible waste of human lives and resources.

The fact that we get free videos on KZread by William Spaniel is truly a gift. 👏👏👏

Great great content

Gawd man, you made my head hurt with that inflation talk... 😅

The people at the Russian equivalent of 4chan, dvach, are indeed complaining about egg prices. Would be interesting to see how their CPI is actually moving.

Perun made a comment about the relative attention of things in the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine: the bigger things explode, the more attention of gets. Economic war is just too boring to cover. Better to just trust Russian numbers with no amount of verification, like WTO did, i guess.

I, for one, love macroeconomics.

Mr Dore God Bless you, you are on the spot talking about Ukraine, thanks very much💖

@spudwesth

3 ай бұрын

Lies

Great video William, a very insightful look at the growing dilemmas in the Russian economy, would be appreciated if you could ke a close watch on this as seems likely that those stresses are going to become very obvious in the next 6 months…

@steephanroy8461

6 ай бұрын

Ukraine lost.. the West has already ditched them

@Conservator.

6 ай бұрын

@@steephanroy8461 How are food prices Ivan?

@steephanroy8461

6 ай бұрын

@@Conservator. Quite normal cheap infact.. How's your Medicare and flat earther education.. oh right ur elites stole them and added more zeros to their corporate account books.. still living in a house?

@thinkingonesec

6 ай бұрын

​@@steephanroy8461what are you going to vote for Stephan?

@steephanroy8461

6 ай бұрын

@@thinkingonesec we don't have sleepy joe or a blond idiot here for that circus.. Its not as glamourus as yours but Putin was elected to power.. Russians elecct the puppet master to power But for u.. no matter who u vote for.. all of them will be the puppets of oligarchs...

I seriously didn't care about geopolitics or economics in any real way before finding this channel. Glad I did, I've learned a lot, and it has made me very interested in it.

@SupremeRTS

6 ай бұрын

I'm the exact same way, its become a bit of a hobby of mine since I found this channel

good video :)

Look forward with your people we have the answer coming out very good reviews on going message

Billy for an Aussie, you are very intelligent. Well done again. Keep pushing the Rubble crash and it will be self fulfilling, ending this war in 10 months. 150 Rubbles to the USD is the crash dummy wall.

@masterlightjames950

6 ай бұрын

Not a bright one here at all. Probably intoxicated 😂

This is among your best productions and a highly recommendable explanation of the western goal of crippling the Russian economy as a way of crippling the Russian war effort. Bravo!!!

I love it how you warn the viwers. 'This might be borking' I didn't find this boring at all.

@Lucyhehe_

6 ай бұрын

Ur pretty

@marshallb5210

6 ай бұрын

bork bork

Riveting analysis. Well done

Standing with Ukraine!🇺🇦

I have a bachelors degree in economics. They never taught me that there was any rule that high interest rates eventually leads to people taking their money out of the bank to spend it on goods. I always thought that perpetually high interest rates = perpetually high savings rates, because it means a higher opportunity cost for consumption than if interest rates were low. Edit: Also, how does Russia solve the arbitrage problem? i.e. Armenia and the other countries where the ban doesn't apply to sell to the rest of the world, so the money goes to Armenians and other people in the rest of the former soviet union instead of to Russians?

@jaysdood

6 ай бұрын

The problem with academics is they see the world as it "should be" rather than how it is. This is how you have a large cadre of academics that think communism is practical. The issue of high inflation leading to people hoarding tradable goods is both well established and understood.

@old_grey_cat

6 ай бұрын

Think of it in the context of you as a person saving and buying only the bare essentials. If your savings grew faster than inflation, would you buy birthday presents? In the case of Russia, if the savings gave you the chance to go somewhere safer, would you? If relatives were at the fromt line, would you buy them things the military hadn't supplied? P.S. Also, if you distrust government claims, because reports from friends in business or at the front are different from the news...

@julilab

6 ай бұрын

I think we are talking about small investors who, with high interest rates, tend to save until they have saved enough for a car or a 60% house. They save up money to spend it on consumer goods later on.

@mortenvikene228

6 ай бұрын

that bachelors aint worth anything, if you actually belive this nonsense :) so either you are lying about that education of yours, or idk. you are slow in the head or somthing :)

@MSDGroup-ez6zk

6 ай бұрын

Putin has made a brilliant move tested how deep the USA pocket is. Now the world knows that the USA can only afford one war only

"Few things put people to sleep faster than the word, Macroeconomics" Me in AP Macro 💀

Macroeconomics is not "black magic". Monitoring economic fluctuations already is a difficult task, responding to such fluctuations is not easy. If I remember right, it was J. K. Galbraith who compared monetary policy to driving a car at full speed, guided by what the driver sees in the rear-view mirror.

Russia's doing pretty good all things considered. Vast majority of world countries won't follow through on sanctions, that's a big part of it.

@neutralevil1917

6 ай бұрын

Yup. Even NATO member Turkey spits in the face of the West and trades with Russia even more

@diogorodrigues747

6 ай бұрын

I wouldn't say they're doing pretty good, as we don't really have an access to most economic data coming from Russia.

@ChucksSEADnDEAD

6 ай бұрын

Vast majority of countries in the world can't afford to replace Europe or deal with uninsured Russian tankers.

@neutralevil1917

6 ай бұрын

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD Nah, it's quite the opposite. 7/8 of humanity don't give a damn about Western sanctions and trade with Russia as they see fit

@RichardTaylor1630

6 ай бұрын

Losing 30,000 men per month in the prime of life as in kaput, plus another 50,000 per month with life-altering injuries, while burning through the nation's military hardware at a rate not seen since Saddam Hussein took on NATO and friends, does not qualify as "doing pretty good" in my book. Ruble revenue can be replaced. Losing upwards of 500k men per year to death or debilitating injury in a nation that had already been suffering from sever demographic shrinkage -- not so much.

The Russians should feel every bit of the economic squeeze

@glintongordon6811

6 ай бұрын

But they are barely feeling anything... There are multiple videos of them on this app living better than most of us

@senpalma

6 ай бұрын

cry about it

@benverboonen1108

6 ай бұрын

@@glintongordon6811 bro fell for propaganda.

@Alitacyan

6 ай бұрын

@@glintongordon6811lmao where do you live? The Russians outside of Moscow and stpb live like animals.

@armandoventura9043

6 ай бұрын

​@@glintongordon6811 A Russian who lives in a country that sees him as an asset lives better than a guy on the internet who speaks English and possibly lives in a Western democracy? How does this work?

a sudden change in inflation rate indicates a much, much bigger spike in the rate for that one month - what's the average of 11 5's and a 22 - you have to try very hard to get a 1% increase in estimated inflation in 1 month, on an annualised basis..

Great report. Please do a report on the national wellfare fund and the strange development og export increase of commodities.

That Saudi Arabia part made me burst out laughing. So its not only India making money off cheap Russian oil Poor Putin 🤣

@borali26

6 ай бұрын

Also India is paying with discount and with rupees.

@rubenssilva6902

6 ай бұрын

India truly is the embodyment of scamming And ngl, i reapect it lol, its too based

@prizefighter8699

6 ай бұрын

I think its a good deal for Russia coz the closer the india s will be

@advancetotabletop5328

6 ай бұрын

India (and China) haven’t done a thing for Russia. All they want is cheap oil. Russia’s had to rely upon Iran and North Korea.

@masterlightjames950

6 ай бұрын

Poor fool. Putin is making huge profits while you fools are losing big money with the expensive sales.