I didn't think I'd laugh during this episode but the "one shot one opportunity" part had me rolling😂

@TheRedLinePod

14 күн бұрын

You would be shocked at how many times Michael sneaks lyrics into questions as little Easter Eggs. Eg : kzread.info/dash/bejne/loiKztCNeqvFibw.htmlsi=EwHCCZDZH8z6qv-h&t=3355

@defective6811

7 күн бұрын

Mom's 炒麵?

I didnt even know I was a Patreon!

Absolutely great work, enjoyed every minute of the talk! I have never seen a wargame or thought about strategies, this was enlightening. This video alone is worth being a Patreon!

Great job on this, love the excel spreadsheet. Let's hope none of this ever happens.

Supurb video. Makes it very tempting to join patrion of this is the type of content I'm missing out on.

Ive just found this channel and have immediately subbed like 8 minutes in. I love the modeling approach. My concern is that for us in the west the 'Taiwan Question' is a bit of a geopolitical three body problem, with dramatically different outcomes depending upon our initial assumptions in modeling. For instance, if we presume that Xi feels comfortable with his personal power within the PRC we can assume that war might come later, likely at what the PLA would feel the most optimal military timing. If on the other hand we change only our presumption about Xi's perception of his own power, the Taiwan Question becomes one of political optimization instead of military, and could come at a dramatically different timing. I fear we are too comfortable applying western cultural causal reasoning to the situation, which often does not match the causal reasoning of the Chinese.

Awesome talk. Two things that I didn't hear you really discuss, maybe because their relevance to this conflict is minimal, were cyber and space. You kinda took as a given that US satellites would operate with impunity and provide real-time surveillance of Chinese naval forces in the strait. Can China destroy or degrade that ability enough for it to make even a slight difference? I can envision Xi giving the order to aggressively knock out US space assets once he casts the die, do we have any good ideas on how that might play out/what kind of escalation that would represent? The cyber domain seems, to me, like it would play a small role in any conflict, maybe only being useful in sewing propaganda within the enemy's population, but maybe I'm not giving it enough credit. We have virtually no idea how far both the US or China has penetrated the other's military infrastructure. Could it be so deep that when someone presses the button to launch a missile, it doesn't fire? Unfortunately for us on the outside, we don't even know how to bound our imagination on this front. And maybe in light of the fundamental issues of supplies on the island you highlight, it may not be possible for cyber to make any impact. Would love to hear your thoughts. Love the podcast!

@plebius

14 күн бұрын

Using lasers, no. They might be able to temporarily blind them, but that is not a given either. Using missiles, they have demonstrated the ability in the past by blowing up one of their own satellites. It is however wrought with danger. As it could cause a cascade effect and block any launches by anyone for any purpose for a long time, worst case scenario blocked forever. It could also knock out a lot of others just with debris. That's my limited understanding of it.

You model Chinese supplies buy what of Taiwans? Hows their stockpile?

Do you play wargames? Any off the shelf games you recommend on this conflict?

Nice

Out of interest what do you think Australia's foreign policy should be?

If north korea opens its guns towards south, how would it affect the taiwan invasion?

I have a question though, how is a surprise missile strike even a possibility when, as you said invasion force will take 6 months of I assume quite visible preparation? And I assume just the missile strike and then waiting for an invasion for 6 months would be pretty stupid so that scenario is out...

@omarrp14

15 күн бұрын

They hide the build up behind military drills. They had a record size drill a few years ago, they’d have to of course surpass that last drill in size & length.

@user-zn7rg4uu3c

15 күн бұрын

The Russians built up on the border with Ukraine for months before invading and it was still a surprise

@concretedonkey4726

15 күн бұрын

@@user-zn7rg4uu3c and the US was telling everybody that they will do it daily.. for quite a while before that.

@plebius

14 күн бұрын

​@@concretedonkey4726China regularly does massive drills there. So they could just pretend it's one of these drills, and attack.

@concretedonkey4726

14 күн бұрын

@@plebius sort of the same scenario as russia did, but if I was military I would be on alert even for a drill ... not sure how much on alert but still more than usual. I would guess the key is exactly how much on alert would US be.

don't tell him im not from the patreon

Had Russia taken Ukraine in a few weeks, I think the invasion if Taiwan might be attempted. But seeing how much Russia has suffered as a result, I can't imagine China taking the risk with an invasion.

@ExtraRice365

15 күн бұрын

Especially since the Chinese military has essentially zero actual combat experience for however many decades

@KrolKaz

10 күн бұрын

If anything the prolonged war in the Ukriane has aided China, the west has shown it's cards in terms of what sanctioned would occur. Chinese officers are taking notes on how a 21st century war would be fought, and NATO has quickly burned through any equipment it could've sent to Taiwan had an invasion occurred. Plus Russian military industries are churning out war equipment like never before, which it could use to aid China in a war. Thier economies have grown closer together as a result too. Plus China is in no position to launch an invasion, they simply don't have the transport ships needed to send a million men across the sea in short notice. There's no need for China to invade anyways, all they'd have to do is put up a naval blockade, a capability which they do possess. Just like sanctions against Russia, US and its client states sanctioning China would do more harm to themselves as we are very reliant on Chinese goods for our own economy. Even If the US had the equipment to send to Taiwan during a war it would be logistically impossible, the Ukraine benefits by being bordered to numerous nato states, Taiwan is a lone island with ships carrying war goods being spotted miles away and easily destroyed. Look at the ruckus the houthis have created and they don't even possess anti shipping missles as capable as Chinese ones.

@ExtraRice365

7 күн бұрын

@@KrolKaz so why do you think hasn't China acted yet? What could they be waiting for?

Danke für 26 Jahre Leben in Frieden und Freiheit in der DDR!

Putin or xi?

@ch1m1ch0nga

15 күн бұрын

They're both easterners, so I choose the western alliance.

Should focus on CW2.0 which is more like to happen. Taiwain stuff is plain joke.

Your analysis is interested but flawed in too many ways. If you are going to create scenarios then you should consider the potential players, the politics, their capabilities (present and wartime potential), their likely behavior/history, economic consequences, preparation, allies, geography, logistics, national cohesion, ...... Most basic logic, if the US do not intervene, Taiwan don't stand a chance. Taiwan is an island close to mainland China within range of everything that flies or swim. China can starve Taiwan to submission or can take its time to bomb Taiwan to oblivion using only MLRS drones. Taiwan air-force and air defense will last at most a few days and its navy less than 24hrs. So the only meaningful scenarios to model are the ones where the US does intervene and I would argue that the China's military strategy is structure around a war with the US not Taiwan. And if the US intervenes, so will Japan, Philippines, Australia, Canada and UK. I will assume that South Korea will abstain because if they get involved so will North Korea and this will drains the US coalition more than it add. The facts on the ground, China is a nation of one child families, with lots of missiles, ships, planes, submarines, satellites, gadgets like drones by DJI and many others. China is determined but will be cautious and pragmatics. China is the world's factory plus the world biggest exporter and importer. China needs to trade to survive but not necessarily with the west, the reason for the BRI. How will it begin. Cautiously. China will take the Kinmen Island and blockade Taiwan. Possible respond, Taiwan surrenders, Taiwan breaks the blockade, US breaks the blockade. Only the last possibility result in future scenarios. It is illogical for China to preemptively strike the US bases first, this will make China the aggressor and affect China's rep with the BRI partners. And why pick a fight if you may not need to. If the US intervenes. All its allies are valid targets, China will initiate strikes on Taiwan, US bases in Japan, Guam and the Philippines. Australia and other allies are of very little relevance from both a firepower or logistics point of view. The battles. China will do a Desert Storm on Taiwan and Okinawa. It will do a blocking strategy on US reinforcement and logistics, it will block the commercial air and sea routes. Chinese economy will suffer but Japan, South Korea, Taiwan economies will collapse. All of these countries have little to zero energy resources, no metals, insufficient food. They will take the Battanes islands from the Philippines. They will do a bombardment of Japanese naval and airbases if Japanese forces are involved. It will be an attrition and logistics war that will likely last years. The weapons. China has everything that the US has. Chinese weapons are made where they are used, the US weapons has to be shipped from the US mainland or Europe. The economics. Once the war starts, little and no air or sea traffic will occur. China will fallback on its reserves and land routes. China will assume a war economy, with rationing and all factory are either serving the population or partners or its military. Expect millions of military drones, thousands of missiles, hundreds of ships and planes manufactured a year. The End. Nukes are highly unlikely. A ceasefire after the US runs out ships or weapons. The result, a devastated coastal China, Japan, Taiwan and likely the Philippines. Lots of casualties, sunk ships, destroyed planes and maybe satellites. Economically, a decoupled bipolar world. Taiwan will be administered by China and Japan will never recover, they are already a country of old people. I don't see how the US can win in a conventional war, they are 10,000 km away. They have to cross the Pacific to fight China. China don't even need a Navy to beat the US, just look at the Ukraine example. The US do not have an army or an air force to fight China. Everything will have to come over the Pacific ocean. It is the US Navy against the entire PLA and the Chinese industries. China don't want any part of Japan or the Philippines which they don't already control so No large scale land war.

@majorkaios

11 күн бұрын

I like the jist of your analysis

@bobmorane4926

11 күн бұрын

Sounds much more reasonable than the clownish scenario being narrated !!!

Watching from Kaohsiung, guess I'll die

I think you might want to consider what side Australia is going to be on as you know that the both sides of the political divide are coming towards agreement that china is more of a friend

@ch1m1ch0nga

15 күн бұрын

Ha! Good one, "mate."

The key flaw in your analysis is the failure to take into account the manufacturing might of Chinese economy. The same assumption was made about Russia that they can’t sustain their weapon and equipment losses and they will no choice but to give up once their stockpile has dwindled. The fact has turned out that it is west who had trouble to keep up supplies to Ukrainian forces. US’s reliance on advanced and expensive weapons is their advantage and Achilles heel as shown in Ukraine they take a lot money and time to replenish. If China direct their manufacturing base to support war efforts can you imagine how many drones and missiles it can produce a year. They don’t need quality they need quantity which they will get. Once the American navy runs out their million dollar a pop missiles to shot down the Chinese cheaper and mass produced drones and missiles, they will be sitting ducks.

2:29 "central tenement of the party's platform"? I must have misheard. 2:30 Reading: I didn't mishear. tenET = "one of the principles on which a belief or theory is based" tenANT = "a person who pays rent for the use of land or a building" tenEMENT = "a room or a set of rooms forming a separate residence within a house or block of apartments" or "a piece of land held by an owner."

I still think this would happen with Russia simultaniously invading the baltic. This would change everything and US forces would be heavily strained. Also euro allies would not be able to spare anything for the pacific. Also I dont think it would be a short war. History showed that these cases are almost everytime wrong. I also think an invasion of malaysia and parts of indonesia is a must for china in case of a long war. This could also effect india and pakistan and I can imagine a new axis being founded. When the US looks like i lost the first weeks it could draw a lot of other countries onto the side of china. If China starts this it has nothing to lose. They would attack everyone not allied around them.

Xi's isolation? Are you nuts? How many leaders went to see him? How many he is seeing in early May? What isolation? Update how much China semiconductor industry will be grown by 2026 according to current trend for more accurate predication. "Taiwan will medium-low stockpile of gas" - you skipped that very quickly but current situation is that Taiwan only have 13 days of gas supply before running out. Electricity will be down on the first day. "How many people are aware (China)" - in case you forgotten, reunification with ROC is always in the cards for PRC. They teach this constantly in schools for at least 6 decades. People may not know the specifics but if the target is Taiwan then people would know exactly what this is for. This is quite unlike for Russia-Ukrainian situation. "What has US sent to Taiwan" - given the current trend, almost all the weapons US send to Taiwan is short ranged for urban warfare and likely will remain so in the future. "Casus Belli" - you fumble that one really really badly. By ROC constitution, all mainland Chinese are considered citizens of ROC. PRC already has the anti-succession law of 2005. The only casus belli is when DPP formally declare independence or change their constitution . Nothing short of that will give a proper Casus Belli to PRC. From Casus Belli, I see you know nothing about PRC or ROC internal workings or culture while substituting them with a Euro-centric view which most western analyst tend to do anyway. Thus around at least 30% of your total analysis will be wrong. Most likely scenario in your mind is Case IV? Total war with nuclear states? That's voiding another 50% of your analysis. If PRC is taking Kaohsiung on Day 1, then it is impossible not to take the Penghu Island if you look at the geography. There is simply no way to ignore Penghu for any Southern operations. If US planes are flying in Taiwan strait, it is not going to avoid any planes or AA from China at all.

Delusional. Lol.

Trade Kinmen for Hong Kong.