It is not that they make few EVs since they lose money on each, rather they lose money on each BECAUSE they make so few. Tesla lost money on each car too, until they ramped up to make a lot of them.

By the time legacy makers are convinced there is demand, it will be too late. Why? They are already in debt. Who will invest in a business that has lost its big lead and is falling behind every day? This was predicted years ago based on the statistics.

@singed8853

Ай бұрын

Yes you know better than the entire executive team at Toyota. Even though Toyota just had the best 2 years of profitability in its history (2022 & 2023). Clearly they don’t know what they’re doing. They should probably take advice from you on this matter.

@ZoomZoomMX3

Ай бұрын

EVs make no sense in Canada

@davidbrayshaw3529

Ай бұрын

The problem is not enough demand and the fact that there are a whole lot of new players in the market. One in six cars sold in Western markets is a BEV. It is a tiny market, especially when you factor in the "new boys on the block" in the likes of BYD, CATL, MG etc. The reality is that there is very little demand spread across a large number of manufacturers. Think about it. What would you do if you were in business? Would you cater to the 1 in 6 or would you cater to the 5 in 6? And would you spend hundreds of millions of dollars on capital to appease that one in six, given the existence of other players, especially keeping in mind the number that are going to the wall in China (no pun intended). Investors seem to be pretty happy with how legacy auto is tackling this issue, Toyota in particular. Legacy auto haven't lost a "big lead". The likes of Tesla and BYD, the biggest EV sellers, are still light years away from VW group or Toyota in sales volume. And the sales volumes of many (not all!) of the legacy auto manufacturers is still growing at a very healthy rate.

@alankehiayan5527

Ай бұрын

​🎉e3

@michbenny1363

Ай бұрын

United States will completely change the demand for EVs if Republicans take over the government. Some are pushing for a dismantling of the administrative state, which includes the Department of Environmental Resources and fuel consumption reduction requirements.

Just checked BYD seagull price in China, start from RMB69800, that is AU$14815 for a small hatchback 305kms range.

@nfzeta128

Ай бұрын

yea those prices are honestly criminal. Wish they made it around the world nearer to that price.

@tonywei423

Ай бұрын

@@nfzeta128 They started sell that in Brazil, selling like hot chips, 7600 units in 4 days.

Legacy auto is in danger of sitting on the side lines as the future passes them by.

@robertfonovic3551

Ай бұрын

Legacy nokia kodak blah blah blah

@chillfluencer

Ай бұрын

Legacy auto is a threat to every country it is parasiting in and on.

@singed8853

Ай бұрын

Toyota just had the best 2 years of profitability in its history. 2022 and 2023.

@scoty_does

Ай бұрын

@@singed8853 The future is EV's. At some point that future is going to speed up and Toyota specifically is deeply intransigent.

@davidbrayshaw3529

Ай бұрын

@@scoty_does The future is a balance of EV's and ICE. We're just yet to find out what that balance is.

Toyota loses a lot more than that on each hydrogen fuel cell car they sell (which is not very many, because HFC cars are a gigantic flop). All BEV EVs lose money at first, just like Tesla did for the first several years. It's a new technology that takes a while to recoup the costs on. If Toyota had not wasted so much time and money on HFCs (that they STILL waste time and money on!) then maybe they would already be in the profit stage and giving Tesla a run for their money. Instead, the entire Japanese auto industry is *WAY* behind most of the rest of the world in this area.

@ouethojlkjn

Ай бұрын

It is a strange thing, but the human condition is when you get very good at something you don’t want to change and get very good at something else. Companies enjoying long-term success these days, know very well the importance of adapting. Bill Gates famously stopped, his developers working on their profitable Microsoft exchange email system to work full-time on Microsoft internet explorer - which they gave away for free - because he saw where the competition was, and Microsoft were in danger of becoming irrelevant, and bankrupt.

@robertwoodhouse-bm7kt

Ай бұрын

Japan/Toyota did not want to make BEV cars as China was so far in front in terms of materials and battery development. Japan/Toyota would be dependent on China. Toyota made the Japan government build a hydrogen fueling net work in Japan. They still insist that BEV will only be 30% of the new car market as a maximum and ICE and Hybrid will always be part of the customer choice. In 2024, in the UK, 22% of new cars sold must be zero emission or pay a fine of $19k per car. By 2028 the target is 52%, 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2035. Zero emissions means hybrids don´t count. In the UK a large gas station company is having Tesla install chargers in their gas stations.

@justinr9753

Ай бұрын

How much power has fusion produced? It's always 20 years and billions of dollars away. The first iPhone was expensive for the time, only on AT&T, didn't have GPS, didn't have tethering, and was so fragile a dropped call could break the screen. Evs made up the first cars but had many of the same problems of today so when the electric starter was invented they were soon phased out, and that was at 38 percent adoption rate. The article says nothing about Toyota, it talks about Ford, GM, Hyundai, and Tesla. You fault Toyota for their first prototype hydrogen car sold only in select markets for losing money and in the next sentence say evs lose money. At work, we had $20,000 equipment that was soon phased out with something way better and cheaper, but it was that equipment that paved the way for the next generation. Will hydrogen work? Idk, but you didn't know either

@ChickensAndGardening

Ай бұрын

Toyota's big enough that they can afford to waste a few billion on H₂. The question is whether they can catch up with Tesla/BYD/CATL in BEV.

@ouethojlkjn

Ай бұрын

@@justinr9753 I believe the original iphone did not have wifi either and limited battery life. Last time I checked they had 25% of the entire market..... a couple of bigger and smaller versions of exactly the same phone using the same operating system - I wonder where I have seen that before...

It’s not just legacy auto makers loosing money on the sale of EVs but that dealers are not able to make it up on the service and renewables

In theory an EV should ultimately be cheaper to manufacture than ICE vehicles. The manufacture of the actual IC engine is more difficult to automate for one, where as automating production of electric motors and batteries better lends itself to automation.

@fredbloggs5902

Ай бұрын

They already are

@blogattacker

Ай бұрын

No, the key is in the battery tech,

Saying they are losing money on every car sold needs to stop. This is just the breakdown of development costs per car. The billions have already been spent, so it is now time to sell more EVs.

Toyata had a good run with the Prius between 1997 to 2012. But in 2009, Akio Toyoda made himself CEO and started doing dumb things. Example: Toyota Mirai - 2014 to 2022 R.I.P.

@avdp9095

Ай бұрын

The new Prius is an immense succes, Toyota is investing more than 100 billion dollars in Bev's. They will even change tge production development to AI design and gigacasting. They are magnificent

@bruceburns1672

Ай бұрын

Dumb things, hardly, go and order any Toyota and see how long you have to wait to get it, no other manufacturer has this dumb thing hanging over it, one model about 2 years, RAV here in OZ, 6 months, yes real dumb.

@upsidedown5618

Ай бұрын

You are 100% correct

@upsidedown5618

Ай бұрын

@@bruceburns1672I used to work for Toyota for over 20 years I know how they work , the long wait is to keep the price up , when they were here in Australia if the demand was there they would increase production

@avdp9095

Ай бұрын

@@bruceburns1672 in Europe we always have to wait for our new car.....because, when ordered, it us not manufactured yet.... . Delivery time between 4/5 months up to a year. Demand for Toyota cars is immense, tgey cann't keep up with the production...

The largest manufacturers assume they can manage the market as they always have. They can make EV's whenever they want. There were 3,000 carriage and cart makers in the US in 1903. By 1920 there might have been 200.

@1voluntaryist

Ай бұрын

In 1901, the car had 1% adoption. In 1913, it was 99+%. By 2029 the ICEV will be history.

@robertfonovic3551

Ай бұрын

@@1voluntaryist in 5 yrs ? your of your rocker

@danharold3087

Ай бұрын

@@robertfonovic3551 Sounds fast but market disruption is fast . Of course we need to get off our butts and build the chargers and educate people to the fact that most will only use fast charging when traveling out of town. Th bad PR from the Oil companies are effective.

Legacy auto makers have earnt that name. They have missed the boat and will be fondly remembered in history.

@johnb7794

Ай бұрын

@@Markcain268 electric will be the cheapest and best value... that's why ICE will die or become niche.

Paying Tesla for credits is crazy thinking. It means you have less money to finance updates and Tesla now have a lot more and can innovate faster!

I have an EV for just about 4 years now. I love it, but I know its limitations and I’ve gotten used to it. But then again I live not far from work and do my errands nearby. I just need to recharge once a week, unless I decide to travel farther than my usual routine. Never needed to recharge outside my garage.

I haven't figured out how to charge one up in my apartment complex in Las Vegas, yet.

@bearcubdaycare

Ай бұрын

A quick web search showed 1278 apartments in Las Vegas with EV charging, so if willing to move...

@robertfonovic3551

Ай бұрын

@@bearcubdaycare great research. but how many are available to rent ? LOL

@mauriceharting5877

Ай бұрын

Charge your EV at work or at your business.

@Michael-yi4mc

Ай бұрын

Live over a radioactive radon testing site in Nevada.

@Pneuma40

Ай бұрын

Lame talking point.

Newcomer that don't know about EVs are missing out. The idea of solar panels on my home in SF Calif means I almost don't pay for electricity and I charge my Tesla Model 3 Standard for free with so little maintenance that it's a no brainer. Once more people adopt the EV car, they will be mad at the dealers that put out false information about EVs ignorer to maintain their ICE car business. It's only a matter of time and America looks at countries like Norway and how Europe is going with more solar and wind power that the world can truly save money on transportation plus the benefits of living in clean air. It will be in the history books that yes time does eventually do take the right course and go EV.

@mauriceharting5877

Ай бұрын

Electric power is now and growing in the future ... you are absolutely correct.

@Gazza-rv8ud

Ай бұрын

Yes we also have rooftop solar in Australia to charge out Tesla Y and about to fit a Tesla Powerwall. The amount of misinformation being spread mainly by guys fearful of EV's is surprising. None of them have any experience with EV's other than what some other guy has told them but doesn't stop them talking nonsensical trash.

@kennyloong90

Ай бұрын

new ev with V2L gonna save you powerwall too

@snowranger69

Ай бұрын

Really hate that pg&e is screwing ev adoption with the highest power prices in the mainland us

@prilep5

Ай бұрын

That no brainer is because you can afford a solar panels and electric cars. People use public transportation don’t have money to feed their family many are homeless or live in a car. Your solar installation 15kw cost you 150k$ car at least 60kw your wife and teenagers want one 2x or 3x. Even if i want to buy electric im renting where I am going to charge- you’ll say superchargers. That is not cheap and it has potential to become more expensive when one day they will start charging pick surcharge plus degradation of the batteries. Resale value drops like Mercedes 20k$ a year.

They’re playing the long game. They’re betting that the technology will allow lower production prices as the technology matures. And it will, it’s just a ‘when’ thing.

I looked, but couldn't find, the amount car companies pay to purchase carbon credits. One site, without documentation, said about $3k per vehicle. If so, that's half of the $6k loss. Think about how many years Tesla suffered losses before they were able to scale up to profitability.

@elduderino7767

Ай бұрын

carbon credits are to offset ICE not EVs, the 6k loss figure sam mentions here is based on legacy EVs not ICE so the likes of toyota are still making profits from ICE even after offsetting with carbon credits, they probably aren't building EVs because they can't do it profitably atm they might be waiting for a new standard in battery tech, which makes sense with LFP and now sodium ion coming in full commercialisation in the past couple of years - even EV specialists like Telsa and BYD have to invest massively to make the switch, so it seems like an ideal time to transition also you have specialist battery companies like northvolt which legacy can use to temporarily delay the massive capex of building out battery tech infrastructure, less risk but a loss in long-term competitiveness due to lack of vertical integration, but you mitigate massive risk in the short term, especially if you go all in at the wrong time you'd think with time in market and existing infrastructure legacy automakers can offset lack of vertical integration of battery tech and still remain competitive but that remains to be seen, but maybe that was due to lack of off-the-shelf options, now they exists in the form of BYD and northvolt so who knows, might see some massive changes in the next couple of years as legacy catch up

@1voluntaryist

Ай бұрын

They legacies are NOT just way, way behind, it's worse than that. They have big debt and have failed to even come close to Tesla or the Chinese. Moreover, they are falling behind daily and need not one miracle, but many big breakthroughs. "It's all over now, baby blue."

@danharold3087

Ай бұрын

The government wants car companies to build Zero Emission Vehicles. To that end the created the ZEV credit system. Ford and GM could have and should have gotten the hint. Instead they opted to buy credits. Now who's fault is that. Tesla had to learn to make cars. They did. They were also building a product without an established market. They sold them.

Very good points in this video; 500k in China is a number I've heard as well for profitability. Regarding the BCG study, 40% is a solid percentage! IONIQ 6 is one of my favorite vehicles. ~9% to 20-30% in 18 months sounds about right in the U.S. Regarding "EV demand waning" (LOL), it's all about specs, technology, and pricing. If an EV is struggling, that means one of the above is not competitive. Thanks, Electric Viking!

I'm sure BYD and Tesla are happy to eat up the market share these other companies are leaving on the table.

Over 90% of US buyers are still buying ICE. Toyota's share price in the last 12 months is up 107% by being very cautious on EV. Even with Tesla, where I live there used to be a waiting list, not anymore, they are available now, despite the discounting. The demand will surely come but it is not there yet, for legacy auto the numbers are just not enough for them to get too involved.

@danharold3087

Ай бұрын

OIl and natural gas are working hard aka spending money to ensure that BEV is a bad word in the US.

@jamie-ck6js

Ай бұрын

@@danharold3087 But even if true, if you were CEO of a company, you are not going to bankrupt it by making a product 90% of people don't want to buy yet. In 2030 yes, maybe, but even that is unknown at this point. For example, where I live the cost of public charging is very expensive, far more expensive than filling with gas. Therefore if you live in an apartment then there is simply no advantage at all to owning an EV, only downsides.

@kennyloong90

Ай бұрын

if you remenber how fast kodak and nokia phase out

@danharold3087

Ай бұрын

@@jamie-ck6js All the legacy needed to do was to continue BEV development. Maybe 1 car with low production numbers if that. You don't learn how to build better BEVs by lobbying congress. But if you do get that compelling design you can crank up a line. Yeah the cost of public charging being high relative to gasoline is not the free market at work. Oil controls the gasoline and Natural gas controls the power plants. Great way to keep people buying ICE. It will take time but when apartments w/o charging fail to rent landlords will install charging or sell them.

@Klargus

Ай бұрын

It was 98 percent 5 years ago. Change is happening fast. Imagine where the sales will be in 10 years. Also, US is kinda slow in most other major markets EVs have much higher share

Great update

The preported new batteries from CATL and SK may be cheap enough and dense enough to put an end to consumers concerns regarding range and charging speeds. Lets make sure we revisit this same issue in 12 months.

People who live in units or only have street parking will not be charging at home. No idea where you get 99%

@christophertan3195

Ай бұрын

u dont need it if infra is there

@antoncojo2854

Ай бұрын

Don't think that the average person will be driving in the future, the working class will be expected to take public transportation, bike or walk... You will own nothing and be miserable !

@jamesmcneal1821

Ай бұрын

My best friend in CA did most of his charging at work, and it was free for him. As EVs pick up market share, charging infrastructure will need to improve for all Americans.

@williammeek4078

Ай бұрын

People who own cars keep them somewhere. That is where they will charge.

@neildolan7177

Ай бұрын

@@williammeek4078 🤣 my point is the presenter is saying 99% of people charge at home. This can never happen & is not true.

Interesting, but it occurred to me here (in the USA) that while EV’s are growing in sales, they are not nearly reaching projected volumes because our government is attempting to force a market transition from ICE to EV, yet didn’t fulfill infrastructure obligations. Some companies made the leap to abandon ICE in favor of EV’s like Ford. They were manufacturing greater volumes of EV’s based upon expected demand only to have the rug pulled out from under them. While government incentives can be tolerable, and sometimes beneficial, government mandates have no place in the market.

@robertfonovic3551

Ай бұрын

agreed. and taxpayer funded subsidies are worse.

@danharold3087

Ай бұрын

Ford did a 2nd rate job on the Lightning and Mach e. Ford as admitted mistakes were made.

I feel many have postponed vehicle upgrades because of the crazy market at present. If Tesla can introduce the $25,000 model and are able to oroduce large numbers it will be the best selling EV ever.

@robertfonovic3551

Ай бұрын

possibly. but the model does NOT exist

@danharold3087

Ай бұрын

@@robertfonovic3551 Does not exist as a production car. I am sure it has existed as a virtual car for some years. Undergoing continual improvement. They are building the physical production line in Texas so I would expect they have or soon will have early physical prototypes of the car in the works. In part it depends on how many new things Tesla introduces with this car. Some of the stuff was tested in the CyberTruck. But what past that. The chassis casting for a start. But if it takes an extra year and results in a better car that Tesla can sell for less. Worth the wait. But hope not.

@ouethojlkjn

Ай бұрын

The model Y is already the best selling car in 2023. Not the best selling EV the best selling car.

@raymonddsouza8948

Ай бұрын

One huge factor in Tesla's favour is that they are constantly implementing new ways to reduce the cost to produce their cars, from sourcing/recycling batteries, through material costs, efficiency on the factory floor in production, reduced number of parts, etc. So, as other car companies are just starting to produce EVs (and at a loss), Tesla is already making them at a profit, and is constantly jumping ahead with each vehicle produced. They don't even wait for the usual yearly cycle, they simply implement improvements on the fly, as needed and as soon as possible. Legacy car companies, with the burden of dealerships, factories set up for ICE production, union agreements to adhere to, and quite slow to implement changes in their products and processes, simply cannot keep up.@@robertfonovic3551

@therebel5320

Ай бұрын

​@@ouethojlkjn no its not. mg4 ev is the best selling car in both australia and germany for 2023.

There is a fundamental principle of business called "opportunity cost", the basis for investing in any enterprise; "For what price progress"($?) Because there is no payback/return until the product comes to market, particularly in the case of new technology, that can make you uncompetitive. There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for winners-and-losers[Buffet/Berkshire >$150B]. The winners, like the "Magnificent Seven" are already peak valuation. So buying the best 'cash-poor' losers is an "opportunity cost" to maximize profit, with lower risk; "pennies-on-the-dollar".

I love the ioniq6 style. They're just too expensive for me. If they were around Toyota Camry price I'd buy one.

The average price of the top ten electric vehicles in the US is about $53,758, with an average of $48,430 for the low end trim of each model and $64,936 for the high end trim of each model. Where you can purchase a New 2024 Toyota Corolla for around $24,000. For the average consumer the price of an EV has to come way down for it to be appealing for most to consider purchasing.

Sam. You should read The Innovators Dilemma by Clayton Christensen. Clayton was a professor at Harvard Business School and examined why New Technologies cause Great Firms to Fail

EV sales growing that rapid in the USA? Forget it. The growth in EU is only for a small part responsible by attractive models of green motives; only because of the hideous fuel prices. And China wants only to reduce its dependency upon oil.

Thx Sam! Great job covering: scale, consumer aversion to EVs, EV mfg risk, EV mkt share & Legacy's failure to overcome them. Tesla, on the other hand, succeded. Accordingly, the info you provided supports Elon's strategy of scale through price cuts vs short-term profits. As the latter is what Legacy chose.

At least Toyota will only offer hybrids for the next Camry. It Honda and Toyota alone offer only hybrids, that will go a long way to fuel reduction.

@whowhy9023

Ай бұрын

Plug in hybrids are worse for the environment than ice cars. They typically also consume more fuel than an equivalent ice car… Most people just can’t be bothered to plug in for just a few miles of electric range…

Hyundai and Kia are great for the perception of selling their electric cars. They have really been delayed deliveries to many customers, to the point that people have bought other cars. A win win for them, not loosing as much money as being perceived as popular and selling out and delivering many cars.

@EnriqueThiele

Ай бұрын

Wait for the $51 billion investment of hyundai for ev technology and manufacturing. The plant will be just a giga factory.

@randy74989

Ай бұрын

Hyundai and Kia are not ready for prime time with their EVs and are overcharging customers for low quality. Do not buy.

@stefan2796

Ай бұрын

@@randy74989 Prices of their EVs are competitive. And they have many happy customers, including taxi/uber drivers.

The OEMs will never catch up, IMHO, unless they become what they aren't. A technology company which Tesla is. They happen to make the best car in the world as you and I know. Even if they do they would have to merge to get a foothold in battery tech., robotics, chip production, solar power and I could go on. Ford solar panels? GM solar panels? Stellantis space program? It'll never happen and it's too late for them.

@1voluntaryist

Ай бұрын

EXACTLY. Bottom line: They don't have Elon Musk!

@mikeosgood3846

Ай бұрын

@@1voluntaryist Elon is not a god. He's just another Edison.

@user-zo2pc5lu5q

Ай бұрын

@@mikeosgood3846 blasphemer 🤣

@1voluntaryist

Ай бұрын

@@mikeosgood3846 Edison was an immoral jerk who used dirty politics (a redundant term) and reneged on his promises. It cost him a partnership with the Da Vinci of energy a century ago, Nikola Tesla. Elon is the opposite. He inspires the best and rewards it.

I do love this image of paying Tesla to help them make better/cheaper EV’s and put them even further in the lead. It’s a crazy model but that’s what Toyota and others are thinking of doing!

40% are considering to buy an EV as their next vehicle? I would bet that this is not even remotely true, at least not in the US. While I know a lot of people, many of them interested in my decision to drive a Tesla, I have yet to meet a single(!!!) person who seriously considers buying an EV. I’m predicting that most OEMs will scale back their EV plans to an absolute minimum and that they will quietly ramp the development of ICE vehicles back up.

@robertfonovic3551

Ай бұрын

that 40 percent figure may well be true, however there is a difference between considering and making an actual purchase. i have considered mowing my lawn today ,but its not going to happen. lol

@danharold3087

Ай бұрын

Considering and doing are a world apart. Ramping up the ICE cars will work for a while. Then they will not meet emission standards. They need to be working their butt off on BEV development.

@gpsfinancial6988

Ай бұрын

1,189,051 people bought an EV in USA last year, so there must be some interest.

@ohyesitsme

Ай бұрын

I reakon governments will revise their ZEV mandates as they see that most auto manufactures will not be able to meet the targets as consumers still have no faith in EV's

@tesla_tap

Ай бұрын

@@jprt3270 - One reason Hybrids are doing well - more and more automakers are making the hybrid variant the only choice so they can keep there average MPG up high enough. Has less to do with demand and more with what they allow the consumer to buy. It's also far easier for them to make a hybrid than a good EV.

Good stuff!

@electricviking

Ай бұрын

Glad you enjoyed it

The ionic 6 looks amazing! And the numbers on it are great too. What a shame that it's not selling

@antoncojo2854

Ай бұрын

It starts at 57000$ Canadian, that is not affordable, especially for a Hyundai. Imagine a company like Daewoo selling cars for 5000$ and then a few years later expecting customers to pay 60000 for an electric version

@justinr9753

Ай бұрын

You can lease one for $239 down and monthly. I actually considered it until I saw World Car of the Year on their website, seeing that it was in the same category as BYD to win the award they gave to the i-Pace so it doesn't seem like they give it to good cars.

It’s a volume game - scale up to make profit or burn cash on each one sold. The latter pushes you into bankruptcy.

@sparkysho-ze7nm

Ай бұрын

Definitely is not a effective business model

Do automakers go for long term profits or long term vision? Legacy automakers all have geriatric board members who only want one thing: to be profitable one quarter to the next. There is absolutely no incentive to invest heavily on new and disruptive technology. Yes, they all make a few EVs but it's just window dressing. Already future regulations have been dialed back in the US and EU, bending to the pressure of auto makers, unions and dealerships. When push comes to shove, it's obvious who has the real power.

ICE cars price hikes , but EV price cuts everywhere

@ouethojlkjn

Ай бұрын

Yes first the media complain EVs are too expensive, now they claim they are too cheap.

@Fanta....

Ай бұрын

EV makers are not listening to their customers. they want cheap cars that can do local runs around town. 20k max. Instead they are selling overpriced turds in an inflationary market where nobody can afford to buy them.

These projected sales numbers will never be met unless the charging infrastructure is improved dramatically. You will have some areas of the country. The USA am speaking about that may hit those numbers, but the majority of the country will not.

@virtual-viking

Ай бұрын

The US is following the same S-shaped adoption curve as all the other countries, albeit with a couple of years delay compared to some other countries. One such country being mine. Here in Denmark, right now about 50% of new cars sold are EVs. Here you can charge at the supermarkets, curbside, workplaces or even at other people's private homes using an app. Still, most people charge at home. People without EV experience tend to think you charge an EV similarly to how to fill an ICE car at a gas station. In reality you only do that when you go on a road trip, which for most people is a couple of times a year, at most.

The Ionic 6 looks like somebody took a BYD Seal, cut off the back end, and grafted a 911 back end onto it

@dangosypethau

Ай бұрын

and that's being generous

@ivalterbaptista2305

Ай бұрын

Agreed. That’s one ugly car.

Legacy considers going full in EV as betting the farm, but are still in denial that their current farm is burning down. Still having painted themselves into that corner it may well be far too late already. So that leaves them to enjoy the ICE ride while it lasts as the only option left.

I think batterys will get super cheap and if any car maker can get them cheap enough they will start making money.

@tesla_tap

Ай бұрын

BYD and Tesla are already profitable making EVs. One key is making the car lighter, so you don't need as large a battery to get the desired range. Taking an obsolete ICE platform and stuffing in a battery and motors, makes for a very inefficient design that requires even more batteries. The costs will never be competitive.

This next few years are going to set the die for Legacy Car makers, it's going to decide whether they survive and what size they will be in future. They are going to have to understand that the way they currently design and manufacture cars isn't going to cut it. Farming out much of what you produce to third parties is throwing away profit that needs to be kept in house. Their pace of development is way too slow for this new reality, and that's going to be extremely hard to turn around.

While I would agree with you, Sam, about practically every other legacy automaker selling BEVs, it particularly grinds with Toyota. Why? Because Toyota traditionally leads. Where Toyota leads, others follow. They've brought many improvements to the masses, from Hybrids to super reliable motoring with less servicing. Toyota also has had a dream which was to go from ICEVs to FCEVs through clear steps which they planned from decades ago. Simply, it went ICEV > ICEV Hybrid > ICEV H2 > FCEV. The last two steps they have been experimenting with for several years, race testing the combution H2 engine, and testing the market with their H2 Fuel Cell vehicles. They are heavily committed to this step by step progress. And Toyota doesn't like shifting from the plan. So, for them it's not about profits, it's about dictating the future of transport. Plus, Japan was committed to going H2, though I'm not so sure now. And you can bet that Toyota's darling friends in the Oil/Gas Industry are backing Toyota with every anti-BEV movement they make. The problem the O/GI and Toyota have is the lack of H2 infrastructure. The O/GI want it for transport, industrial, domestic applications. Toyota wants it for transport. Nobody wants to pay for it when the numbers are so bad against straight electricity, supplied by renewables. You'd think they'd change, but their sheer stubborness has helped them succeed in the past. To be honest, we need to be aware of them because they are ramping up their resistance, rather than pivoting to cleaner energy.

Averages are meaningless in this context. You need to know, at the minimum, the amount PER manufacturer and even better would be the amount per model, like MachE, Lighting, Lyriq, Blazer EV, etc. If GM hadn’t made the stupid move to tie themselves so tightly the to the Ultium battery chemistry, a chemistry that was out of date before the factories to make them were even built, they could have partnered with CATL and be at least breaking even per car until they could get their software debugged and start producing cars at a price and volume where they could make money.

Morning mate

Legacy automakers (unlike start ups) still have to pay the costs to design, develop, build, market, maintain and retool for the 90% of the automotive market that start ups don’t have to worry about. Legacy automakers have decades of product out there that must be maintained and warranties. Legacy automakers have decades of former employees who are entitled to retirement pensions and benefits. Legacy automakers have unions and operate in some of the most expensive jurisdictions in which to manufacture high tech products. Most of these legacy manufacturers are operating in jurisdictions which are phasing out coal fired generation in favour of less emitting and much more expensive alternatives. Energy is a huge input cost to manufacturing. Most of these legacy manufacturers can’t sell the EVs they make…and lose money on every unit. All of these unique features are highly valuable to the societies that have these organizations. Once destroyed by the EV mania, these societies will be much poorer.

Hey Sam, Hope your foot is healing well! As for Toyota, no matter all the gloom & doom being wished on them, the fact is... Toyota Motor Corp is an immensely smart and powerful market leader. In my humble view, they are intentionally choosing to pay the lesser price on the road to transformation. Smart. And when it comes to what most consumers Truat, hybrids, Toyota is right there in that sweet spot. Smart. When they move, it will be the right time for them. Cheers

@ouethojlkjn

Ай бұрын

They are certainly number one at something - spending someone else’s money. Toyota are the most indebted company in the world. VW is not much better in third place. Time is running out.

@tesla_tap

Ай бұрын

I worry when Toyota finally offers compelling EVs, it will be too late. They have already given up the China market. Seems like they are giving up the US and EU markets too. I suspect they will do well in Japan continuing with Hyrdogen and ICE, but that's a tiny market. Maybe they will do well in Africa?

@mobayguy

Ай бұрын

@tesla_tap I think it's fair to say that none of us, me first, know what Toyota's detailed strategy is, but clearly, they're up to something. At the simplest; let others spend to the right solution and place in time, then use the "too big to fail" approach along with their manufacturing & marketing excellence to catch up. I humbly offer that consumers who've purchased Toyotas for literally generations will flow right back to them for two good reasons - Trust & Value. I firmly believe Toyota knows exactly what it's doing. Put it this way, if you had all of what they have, how would you approach the evolution of motorized transportation? Again, they'll nestle nicely with hybrids until they re-emerge into an EV leadership position. Great conversation 👍 it will be interesting to watch it all unfold in time.

@ouethojlkjn

Ай бұрын

@@mobayguy The tragedy with Toyota is they are EASILY CAPABLE of making a world class EV RIGHT NOW - for whatever reason, and it isn't waiting for some as yet undeveloped mystery secret technology, they don't want to do it. Similarly, when Herbert Diess tried accelerating the switch to EV at VW, he was unceremoniously sacked. As I mentioned, VW are third in the rankings of spending someone else's money.

@mobayguy

Ай бұрын

@ouethojlkjn Hi Ouethojlkjn, You make some good points & agree on the facts. In my opinion, Toyota has defined for themselves (and that's key), what will be the right combination of market conditions and technology they want to launch on scale. Also, and this is key also; despite what they say publicly, corporations are motivated by theor own self-interest, never the 'collective' good and not always what may seem obviously reasonable to we, the public. In summary, time will reveal Toyota's strategy, and the result will wither be success or failure if that strategy. Companies of such scale are always trying working the future and they either succeed or fail. Great conversation, Thanks.

EV's only make sense in countries with excess electricity. Otherwise hybrids are the way and Toyota wins that one.

Motortrend just release a dual-motor duel with the Model 3 LR Highland, Iconiq 6 Limited and Polestar 2 Performance. Tesla was #1, Ioniq 6 #2, and Polestar #3. (Spring 2024 issue).

Nailed it.

It’s counter to the corporate culture of legacy OEMs to take the risks necessary to dive in with both feet into EVs. They risk alienating their supply chains for ICE with whom they have long term contracts. Moreover they don’t have the engineering to design software-based EV platforms to compete with Tesla and other EV only brands.

Imagine I spend over 300.000 € for my company to buy VW Cars. They become cocking, annoying at the local store and I had so many repairs to make, I drove me crazy. Then I need another VW T6.1 for 70.000 Euros. They told me I can get one in about 1.5 years ! - Then I bought a Tesla within 4 days for 40.000 Euros and I am carrying my stuff in a trailer. Works great so far and within 8 month I drove about 35.000 kilometers.

Everyone is losing with every EV sold, even Tesla. That is why the market is highly subsidized and receives regular money from the states. They survive by financing.

I think when blue oval city is done, ford is going to ramp up production and there be sales will go up a lot.

You say 99% will charge at home but what you forget is that there are millions that have no off road parking so 99% is a misleading figure, like most of your blogs.

350 mi of EPA range is tough to come by so far. Mercedes EQS, Tesla Model S, Lucid and maybe a couple other German models can do it. Lucid isn't a sane choice anymore unless you're ok with owning a car you won't be able to get parts for. It would be nice if people could get over this range thing. It's really mostly about charger availability and charging speed for long range travel. Urban dwellers have a huge advantage in not needing much range, so they can get much less expensive EVs. Chinese cars are all hearsay so far. EPA testing is the minimal standard, and the auto magazines come down even harder on range in their own testing.

@dollarmerchtree4587

Ай бұрын

I think the range anxiety comes from the reports of the early EV buyers and comparison with ice vehicles. Instead of charging often, they are used to filling up and driving until near empty. Any EV research shows that the true range is not even close to what you are expecting. 300-mile range becomes 240 miles at 80%, then 240 miles becomes 200 miles with normal highway driving. Not to mention the charger locations can cause extra stops because of availability. All we see is delays when driving EVs on the highway. But it is true we worry more about the 5% highway driving vs the 95% everyday driving. This should change whenever we get more charging options.

@robertfonovic3551

Ай бұрын

YEP. I would consider buying an EV with a 200 mile range if the charging infrastucture and recharge times were as good as ICE. However its not, and may never happen.

And that’s the whole reason there’s a smear campaign going on concerning Chinese EVs. Don’t know it’s the case in the US or Australia, but here in Europe for sure.

@tesla_tap

Ай бұрын

No smear compaign about Chinese EVs in the USA, since there are no China brands selling here (yet). Only Tesla is the brunt of smear campaigns from oil interests, dealers and competitors.

Without doubt there will be a lot of EV development work going on at Toyota. They will simply not produce them in large quantities until they can produce an EV that has the required long term reliability and make a profit. Until then they will rake in the profits from hybrids, trucks etc.

@ouethojlkjn

Ай бұрын

I noticed that Toyota is the most indebted company in the world. So they wanna get a move on - maybe it’s just too easy spending someone else’s money?

@john1701a

Ай бұрын

​@ouethojlkjn That debt is an asset, not a liability, since a big chunk ofit is financed sales.

@ouethojlkjn

Ай бұрын

@@john1701a Last time I checked, the word Debt means Debt. It does not mean Asset. A Debt means you owe money to someone else. I don't go walking around claiming my Mortgage is really an asset because I have a house in North Wales that covers the debt. Sure, the debtor will take your assets off you to recover their money, thats different. Toyota will have to refinance this debt based on current interest rates. the easy fat years of zero interest are gone. Along with Toyota and Co. if they are not careful.

@john1701a

Ай бұрын

@ouethojlkjn Depends on what column it is listed on the balance-sheet.

That’s AFTER the $7,500 incentive.

Aptera is looking to be profitable after just 6000/year. And they will have 400 miles of range and be under $40k.

@FriedChairs

Ай бұрын

Those numbers are meaningless until they actually start shipping product.

@robertfonovic3551

Ай бұрын

Aptera... the trycycle coffin.

@danharold3087

Ай бұрын

@@robertfonovic3551 They say they will crash test the production units. Wait and see what happens.

Surely the startup manufacturing costs always reduce profits for a considerable period? Perhaps 10 years. Pharmaceutical industry reports losses for 20 years until products get on line. It’s about the long game.

These companies make back the money through their affiliated finance companies that provide hire purchasing at high pretty high interest rates. Not many of us can cough their lump outright to pay for a car.

My high end EUC costs $4000 new and it's all wheel drive. I charge it with sunshine Beat that. It's a King Song S 22 Pro.

@Clyde-2055

Ай бұрын

How many people even know what an EUC is ? And even fewer care …

I’m part of the new potential EV market segment. Have always bought Honda and Toyota in the past and drove to 200k miles each. My next car will be the $25k Tesla when available. I will keep one ice vehicle for road trips, but use the EV for daily commuting. I will charge overnight and not care much about charge time and range. Cost savings could be significant when factoring in the high cost of basic maintenance for the ice vehicle.

@tesla_tap

Ай бұрын

It can be a good strategy to have both EV and ICE to start to get over the concerns. Almost all owners I known who start with both an EV & ICE find the ICE sits unused and they end up using the EV for everything. Just more fun and less cost to drive the EV. I got rid of my ICE after it sat for 3 months and I used it for about 10 miles to keep the 12v battery charged. Been EV only ever since and never regretted it.

Is it fair to say current ev are mainly for city driving. Yes if the real highway range is 500km then inter city driving is possible. At the moment battery is still too expensive That is why lately, Toyota and Lexus hybrid sale are high. Eventually how much ev can take over hybrid cars is questionable because charging in many countries are still a rare occurrences and if they manage to put in more charging station many countries do not have enough electricity capacity.

@geraldbutler5484

Ай бұрын

A 70 year old woman from Queensland Australia drove right around the coast in an EV five years ago after her husband died. She did it easily and many places she stopped for the night were impressed and gave her free charging. Now we have alpha male’s quibbling about how scary buying an EV is.

@HLC64

Ай бұрын

@@geraldbutler5484 try that in other countries mate!

@HLC64

Ай бұрын

@geraldbutler5484 Can you do that in other countries ... if there are not enough charging station there you just cannot do it .... Ha ha No changing no travel

@ouethojlkjn

Ай бұрын

Tesla has a very popular and profitable, well established global supercharger network. It’s easy to do manufacturers should’ve done it a long time ago. They are just waiting for some kind of magic to happen.

@geraldbutler5484

Ай бұрын

@@HLC64 No oil from the Arabs, no travel. Countries have to build more charging but 90% of charging will be done over night at home.

30% or even 20% in the US is unlikely. Cost is too high and the average American is too poor. It can happen only if Chinese cars enter the market.

Just Saying - Buying emission credits can lead to a death spiral. In 1990 Intel's market share was 72% and TSMC was 10%. Today Intel's market share is 5% as they buy emission credits to add FABs to existing sites and TSMC's market share is 53% without the need to buy any emission credits.

This is why manufacturers start with the luxury/performance markets. They can add farkles to justify the increased cost.

Arcimoto, Tesla should buy Arcimoto, electric and fun vehicles at a reasonable size !!!!!

$50,000 is way beyond the affordability of Million’s of People.

@tesla_tap

Ай бұрын

I'm sure millions of people can't afford a car at any price and use public transit to get around. There are used EVs for $20K now which may be more affordable for some. $49K is the average new car price (USA), and there are plenty of new EVs priced well below that.

Any car manufacturer that currently has an electric car offering will be fine. There's 5 years until its starts to get hard to sell ICE cars, which is plenty to catch up to Tesla (in fact Tesla currently has stiff competition).

Just driven all across France on Motorways. Availability of fast charging is good. Peak travel time for easter holidays and I did not have to wait anywhere. More chargers are still bring build. However, 99% charging at home sounds high. Drive through any city and it looks hard to achieve this given the infrastructure. What are European cities doing to support EV charging at home?

@kaxin1367

Ай бұрын

In Portugal every new building has to be prepared (ready to install) for EVs.

@Popdog76

Ай бұрын

Think you misunderstood he said a typical EV driver does 99% of charging at home. The average of current EV drivers being those that have the ability to charge at home

OEMs are including EV related amortised investment costs in these numbers, they would do this when assessing the financial performance of any other ICE models. Unrealistic data.

07:41 - July/August 2024 - BYD and CATL halving their battery prices...

Your comment section is getting wilder by the day Viking. Great job educating people on the issues but I don't think it's getting through to everyone. Main issue with profitability has to be outsourcing the costliest parts like battery production & pack building. Bring it in house and there is at least a chance at profits.

Not Hyundai-Kia: they've announced they are cash flow positive on all their EV models even with the incentives and price cuts they've done

I’m getting tesla ads on your videos, that’s pretty cool.

@robertimrie3710

Ай бұрын

I got an advert for a Toyota Prado. 💩 I want my 10 seconds back .

@electricviking

Ай бұрын

Glad you like them!

Golf carts with zero resale value

I just don't get how EV's cost more to build, than an equivalent combustion car. Take apart just an engine, lay the parts out on a table, and count the number of precision moving parts there are. Or, take apart a modern transmission, and let's get a parts count on that. then, let's get a total cost on the emission controls components of a combustion car. With an EV, you're getting rid of the engine, transmission, and pollution control systems. The savings there should be more then enough to offset the cost of a couple of very simple (albeit powerful) electric motors, and a pretty good size battery. The difference in cost with the electronics isn't as much as you might think, it's much easier to electronically commutate a rotating magnetic field, than it is to maintain perfect fuel/air ratio, optimum ignition timing, and apply just the right amount of exhaust gas recirculation, to make the engine deliver the performance, while maintaining emissions within acceptable limits.

@johnhoover7869

Ай бұрын

Must be cost of batteries and engineering new production methods. EVs not quite as simple in real life as it seems they should be. Remember as well how expensive flatscreen LCD TV's were at first.

@js69927

Ай бұрын

It's not just about the materials and labour, it takes a mammoth amount of person hours and $ to transform entrenched multi trillion dollar companies that have been around for donkeys years. Factories (closing old ones, opening new ones), tooling, supply chain, hiring people who know what they're doing, dealing with unions, training service and sales departments not to mention the products have to be reliable and something people want to buy.

@drakepayung7204

Ай бұрын

Just like it cost 20k a night at the emergency ward.

@js69927

Ай бұрын

Good analogy ​@@drakepayung7204

If you want to make all cars EV, the problem will always be the charging. Charging at home is just not an option for the majority of people.

@fredbloggs5902

Ай бұрын

63% of all occupied housing units have a garage or carport in the US.

@TheObserverIsTheObserved

Ай бұрын

@@fredbloggs5902 Exactly, in the US, not the world. And that still leaves 37% of US without at home charging. 61% if you only look at the renters. Who, most of them, can't even afford to buy a home, yet are expected to pay for an expensive EV?

@fredbloggs5902

Ай бұрын

@@TheObserverIsTheObserved 37% is NOT ‘the majority of people’. You just lie and lie.

@TheObserverIsTheObserved

Ай бұрын

@@fredbloggs5902 You do understand that US statistics only represent a very small part of the world's population, right?

@TheObserverIsTheObserved

Ай бұрын

@@fredbloggs5902 And let's say, that it is "only" 37% of the world that couldn't get at home charging. That is still almost 3 billion people, to whom it is not sustainable to have a battery-driven EV.

I don’t believe sales of electric vehicles will reach 30% here in the U.S. in the next 2 years. It’s a shame that Toyota doesn’t take EV manufacturing seriously. They build very reliable ICE vehicles, and could build great electric vehicles if they really set their minds to it.

@tesla_tap

Ай бұрын

Hard to say what the timing will be. Here in San Jose, EV sales were already 25% of new cars last year. I expect the mid-west states will the be slowest to adapt due to the common mindset that gas is king and few people care about pollution or climate change. In Norway new car sales are already at 90% EVs. Other countries are moving ahead at a rapid rate.

In other words legacy auto makers are too spoiled and don't know how to make an actual investment. Too accustomed to guaranteed or heavily subsidised investments or easy ones the government have already done all the heavy lifting for.

Things are not going well for Tesla. Between bad press about the electric vehicles themselves and the chaotic whims of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Tesla's stock value has dropped this year by nearly 30%. Tesla's sales have gotten so bad that the company has resorted to advertising - something Elon Musk famously said he can't stand. "I hate advertising," Musk posted on Twitter, now X, in 2019.

If legacy carmakers actually have production lines working and are working towards lowering costs overall via some kind of learning curve (like Kia/Hyundai), falling battery prices might save them. Shuttering production lines until they get a better plan like GM/Toyota did will drop them out of the race.

EV in the US is done. only Tesla and many Nokias

@clroger4

Ай бұрын

This scam is almost over 🎉

If Ford are losing $30,000 then most companies will be losing a lot less than the average. I saw somewhere cars are traditionally sold at cost and profit is made in spare parts. Tesla's disadvantage wasn't that EVs don't have much to go wrong but that they don't have that many old cars on the road.

@tesla_tap

Ай бұрын

Another factor often missed is companies like Ford and GM get the equivalent of $10K in ZEV credits for each EV. If they don't produce enough EVs, they have to buy those credits from someone else like Tesla. So they can easily afford to lose $10K on each EV and still come out ahead.

In the U.S., Tesla could end up being practically a monopoly.

@Clyde-2055

Ай бұрын

That would be horrible … Like catching a flight from an airport only serviced by one airline …

I actually prefer an EV that was made out of an ICE car. I have a Mini and the big attraction to it was that I have a fighting chance of converting it to an ICE car when/if the batteries or expensive battery charging/ management electronics die before I'm ready to scrap the car.

@davidlloyd1526

Ай бұрын

That would almost certainly cost more than a new car, unless you do the work yourself.

@fredbloggs5902

Ай бұрын

Wow! Totally delusional 🤣🤣🤡🤡

Embarking on a new product, with obvious initial losses, in what reserves are for - to tide them over the start before profits come in. Problem is legacy makers haven't innovated, like Tesla. They follow the same old path, hoping to succeed. No way.

Thanks so much Sam

@electricviking

Ай бұрын

You are so welcome!

The Model 2 better be out by early 2025 as well as the Juniper this year or Tesla sales growth will be stagnant.

You actually have it backwards most automakers actually right around Breakeven with their Eevee sales the problem is when you factor in the capex which is pretty much a one-time expense that's where the massive losses come in generally in the world of manufacturing every time you double sales you increase profitability by anywhere from 5 to 10%.... everyone knows this but when Ford has all the dealers telling them hey we've got enough EVS on our Lots they're not selling they have no choice but to cut back production and the more they cut back production the more it actually ends up costing them per unit a car like the ionic 6 is a perfect example the ionic 6 is about the same price as a Tesla Model 3 however the model 3 is about the same size as a camry inside while the ionic 6 is about the same size as a Corolla. So people look at both and choose the model 3

Instead of comparing all EVs losses compared to Tesla you should be comparing all EVs compared to regular cars, then it's EVs that loose money.

Those who can’t change at home don’t have to go to high speed chargers. The level two charger is nothing more than a range receptacle like most people have at home. If your car gets 3 miles per KWH you don’t need much time to replace the energy used for a nine mile round trip to the fast food restaurant or retail store . An hour’s worth of charging at 50 A x 240 v is 12 KWH. That’s 36 miles of range so 15 minutes on the charger in the parking lot covers the energy cost of the trip. If the store charges $.20/KWH ,that’s $.60 for the trip. Bring your own cord ,leave the camera on in the car to catch copper thieves, and roll the dice. The store owners should be willing to install the charging port and recover the expense through the small mark up on electricity. It’s a good way for them to attract customers also.

Having engaged with many people who are under the spell of ICE car experience and propaganda, the charging, and range 'requirements' that US consumers demand are silly. They simply can't conceive of a change in their habits that actual EV owners soon realize - 85% (not 99%) of their charging will be at home and 15% will be at chargers. Over and over again, I get nasty commenters insisting that I'm spending half my life charging my car. It's similar to when cell phones replaced land lines - a lot resistance until one actually had a cell phone. Then one realizes that they just don't use their home land line anymore. But Americans are stubborn.

@SanePerson1

Ай бұрын

@@Markcain268 Of course, and I've always acknowledged that as really the only legitimate reason to worry about charging issues with EVs (especially Teslas). People who can't charge at home have a strong reason to hesitate - I always admit that up front.

legacy might be waiting for a new standard in battery tech, which makes sense with LFP and now sodium ion coming in full commercialisation in the past couple of years - even EV specialists like Telsa and BYD have to invest massively to make the switch, so it seems like an ideal time to transition also you have specialist battery companies like northvolt which legacy can use to temporarily delay the massive capex of building out battery tech infrastructure, take a hit to long-term competitiveness due to lack of vertical integration, but you mitigate massive risk in the short term, especially if you go all in on battery tech infrastructure at the wrong time you'd think with time in market and existing infrastructure legacy automakers can offset lack of vertical integration of battery tech and still remain competitive but that remains to be seen, but maybe that was due to lack of off-the-shelf options, now they exists in the form of BYD and northvolt so who knows, might see some massive changes in the next couple of years as legacy catch up

@mikeosgood3846

Ай бұрын

You can build all the ev's you want. They are still charged by fossil fuel. That's the sticking point.

@danharold3087

Ай бұрын

Waiting while they should be building their BEV engineering moxy. Bad idea. Good cells in a poorly engineered car is still a fail. Battery companies sell to the companies that can buy the cells in number.

@kennyloong90

Ай бұрын

most new ev need good ai which legacy maker still bad at. unless google step in