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Professor Hanke is a great analyst with a clear and rational perspective - thanks.

Prof Hanke is brilliant. Thank you for setting up the interview.

@Wealthion

Ай бұрын

Glad you enjoyed the interview!

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! I always enjoy speaking with Steve and wish I was back at uni!

This was one of Prof. Hanke's more comprehensible explanations of his theory. Thanks for asking him the right questions, to pinpoint it. He is just about alone now in still calling for recession by year end, based on his monetary model. Will be watching closely, to see if he is on target, or too old school.

@alexisboucher523

Ай бұрын

I hear you I've had to hear him several times myself but today was pretty good.

@davidlai399

Ай бұрын

When the government borrows a trillion dollars every hundred days to prop up the economy…

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the positive comment and taking the time to view our content!

@bs2951

Ай бұрын

jibb bh

@bs2951

Ай бұрын

bj bibj bhbj bibj bjii bh i j j j

Best interview if seen in a long time. I really appreciate how the interviewer lets the expert time to explain. Thanks so much.

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor from Wealthion, thanks for the positive comment! We don't get enough of them.

loads of respect to hear an expert say "i dont know!" there is something to be said for honesty. and then he pivots to what he can deduce. thank you for the interview!

Applaud the Professor ❤

@Wealthion

Ай бұрын

👏

So what’s happening with savings? Aren’t they very low? In Canada it’s an accelerating demolition of the economy by Federal Budget policies

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment/questions! There is $6 trillion sitting in savings and short term money markets in the US so a lot of money sitting on the sidelines.

The Best!

@issenvan1050

Ай бұрын

🐐🧿

In a normal world Janet Yellen would be a janitor in a university!

@crash4dafun

Ай бұрын

Yup 😂, wouldn't even let her teach kindergarten now...

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor from Wealthion, thanks for the comment! Always good to have a sense of humor!

There is no battle. It is like telling .

always enjoy prof hanke

How does this fit with the bull case for gold as a protection against negative interest rates, inflation and debasement of the money supply?

So many good points, including the FED and the party! I love it an F, I'd give them the same.

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor from Wealthion, thanks for the comment! Yes me too!

Good to see Steve mention the Smoot-Hawley tariff tax instigating the 29 crash and depression.

@michaels4255

Ай бұрын

Wrong! Smoot/Hawley was enacted AFTER the Great Depression was already underway! Furthermore, 80 years of research by economic historians has concluded that Smoot/Hawley had very little influence on the subsequent course of the Depression, and of course no influence at all on events that happened BEFORE Smoot/Hawley was passed.

Wish someone could explain to me the difference between the money supply (prof. Henke) and liquidity (Michael Howell, Crossborder Capital). Prof Henke is making the case that shrinking money supply always led to recession, but last time it happened was in 1948? Lots of things are different now

@mountainman9145

Ай бұрын

Liquidity: the capacity of money to flow between and within sovereign nations, into and out of financial markets. As liquidity operates on financial markets it has impacts on asset prices. M2 has a small impact on liquidity however it mainly impacts the real economy. Liquidity initially affects financial markets which then,in turn, works its way into the real economy. Due to this lag effect you can have a booming stock market while the real economy can be struggling.

@ediddysmith2500

Ай бұрын

Watch Ted speaks ,he explains everything

@RichardTN

Ай бұрын

Yeah, it's a lot worse now. 😅

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and great point! I will bring this up with Steve the next time we chat.

@johnnycactus5140

Ай бұрын

​@@mountainman9145 so is this all the euro dollars flooding back in cause we (us) cleanest dirty shirt?

" My baby does the Hanke Panke." Tommy James and the Shondells.

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Robert! Now I cant get that song out of my head!

Im strugling to understand the contrast between Hanke's shrinking M2 thesis and Michael Howell's increased liquidity thesis. Is it a matter of timing or do they see things completely differently? I think the latter given Hanke thinks rates are too high and cross border capital think the Fed needs to keep rates where they are. I would love to get them together. Both are so smart.

I love the way economists take their competing schools so seriously! They are like adherents of rival religious sects, it's hilarious! But I really do like listening to Prof. Hanke and hope you can get him on again in future episodes. It would be really fun to hear a debate between a monetarist, a Neo - Keynesian, a Post - Keynesian, a Neo - Paleo - Keynesian, an Austrian, a developmental economist such as Ha -Joon Chang, and an economic historian, but only via video conferencing because if they ever came together in person it might end in a blood bath or some poor economist getting burned at the stake. I am surprised the economics departments of the U of Chicago and MIT have not issued mutual anathemas of one another, but maybe it is only a matter of time.

@issenvan1050

Ай бұрын

Monetarists vs. Eurodollarists

Over capacity will be the situation where a country over produces products in order to drive competitors out of business so they can eventually gain Monopoly power. It's not that hard.

Steve is the Yoda of the modern economy... listen what the master has to say.. “Inflation is the path to the dark side... the key money supply is"

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Sebastien and I love that quote!

For the last ten years or so before retirement, I made loans to rehabbers and landlords. I observed that they would attempt just about any project for which they could get financing. From this I inferred that money equals permission to spend. If you earned it, you can spend on what you want whether wisely or not. If you borrowed it, the scope of spending might be limited. In the aggregate, an increase in money supply gives players in society permission to spend. Hence we see the effects which Dr. Hanke describes. That's my take on money as a former lender.

Contraction of the moneysupply is clear. But the deffecit and the national debt now is much bigger. What does that tell us?

sure, commercial banks create the bulk of the currency, but they are enabled by the Fed with things like ZIRP and QE. they are even backstopped with things like BTFP. and it's all funneled to the wealthiest first, then they take it to the Wall St casinos. or at least they did. now, they appear to be switching to gold. they're all quite aware of the pending disaster they've engendered.

@crash4dafun

Ай бұрын

Great comment!

My note on Dr Hanke, is when he advise the president of Ghana concerning the mismanaged economy of this west African country, when he asked (Mr Nana Akuffo Addo,) to not go to the IMF/world bank for a new loan for a ( bailout), for thayt would mean a default on the old loan, which will trigger IMF penalties and fees, which will hurt the country such as lower its forex exchange rate, and cause even more hardship to millions of Ghanians, unnecessarilly but to instead go back and do a self (Austerity) in his country s economy. By freezing further hiring, cutting back on contracts and new goverrnments programs, infact , trimming the excess fat on his countrys economic expenses, which would had been the right thing to do, but Mr Addo foolishly ignored him and went ahead for an IMF bailout loan, which end up collapsing his countrys economy in bigger debt, and hardship with a low were currency value and lower purchasing power for 30 million Ghanians and severe hardship.

The rate of economic growth impacts the money supply - not the other way around.

@LunaLapin-ho5tk

Ай бұрын

Not when you use accounting methods to hide printed and borrowed money into earned income like the gov't does.

There is no real battle, just deceit.

I don't understand his point of view regarding the prices of assets. could someone please explain it?

The rate of change in money supply affects asset prices after long and variable lags.

does quantative easing increase M2?

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment/question Mike! I don't know the answer to this but I will ask Steve the next time we chat.

@mikemarshall35

Ай бұрын

@@BloorStreetCapital Thanks for a great interview of Professor Hanke!

@jvz28az

25 күн бұрын

Yes, it does

Since there's all these lags shouldn't we include the drastic rise in the m2 before it's slight dip to try to predict future and learn from past? We're not close to the long term M2 trend line, still above it.

Changes in asset prices reflexively impact economic growth and inflation after long and variable lags.

“Change money supply by 10%, you’ll get 10% increase in inflation”, or different percentages for different countries?

How do you measure the depth of a recession: GDP?

So, Volcker grew M2 by 6%, in addition to the rate hikes?

Would more people in the system soak up money supply?

Where does the funds rate fall under in Hanke’s monetarist equation?

"suffering"? LMBO They dumped steel and other products at below cost value. That is evil. They don't play by the rules.

Who believes the inflation rate as stated by the government? In my world it seems a lot higher!

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor from Wealthion, thanks for the comment and I fully agree! Whatever their number x it by 2 or 3.

Well Volker used interest rates to do it.

Who are these people who run the FR? Who are these people that are causing war in the ME?

@ecosignals

Ай бұрын

Clearly, big money. It's so insanely geopoli tied now, it's not even funny. "The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist”-Charles Baudelaire “The second greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he is the good guy”-Ken Ammi It is indeed very sad, that the firms, the rich, and powerful have got us so mind numbingly sheeping around, that we're oblivious to them blatantly DOING all the things they say to be afraid of! Question Gov, ok. But FEAR corps & Wall St.

1.8% growth in M2 translates to 0.6% CPI, then, for recession?

So 76% of peoples money is in banks, and you wonder why people stay poor.

Wasn’t the YoY M2 contraction 4.5%?

Why should there be a recession if CPI is below-2%?

Steve!!!!!

How should BTC behave during the next recession & with lower rates?

Tariffs on China are ridiculous. They are building out manufacturing in Mexico. 🤦🏻‍♂️

Money supply contraction &c. Simply look at the reaction of the people in an ordinary market. When the consumer has less money in his pocket, he can spend less money on the groceries. When the grocer gets less money from the consumer, he must raise his prices to make the same amount of money, or the grocer has less money in his pocket. When the consumer looks at the prices going up, he realizes that he will have less money to spend if he pays the higher prices. When the consumer cuts back, the grocer has to lower his prices, or business stops. When the consumer sees that the inevitable result will be lower prices, he will stop paying the grocer, and "see what happens." Everybody 'wins' with a lose-lose outcome: the consumer eats less, and the grocer goes out of business, and Happy Days are here, for the next generation! What do you think the FED and the banks are afraid of?

Quantity of money slowed down in Volcker’s time, but didn’t shrink, now?

Not trying to be disrespectful but what is the value of the wishy washy analysis presented ? Strong or weak recession end of 2023 or end of 2044 now? 12 mos. or 24 mos. lag but maybe longer this time? I can predict this (eventual recession) without a PHD and 30 graduate assistants with some certainty (subject to change with new data). Another good Fed economist candidate which is why we are in the financial quagmire we are in.

How does cash “drain out?”

Is irrational exuberance the “animal spirits?”

Was Greenspan a monetarist?

There will be a collapse, he just doesn't know when 😂😂

@RichardTN

Ай бұрын

Yeah, big haha. What if you have terminal cancer and the doctor says, i don't know when you'll go. Don't make plans then since it's real funny.

Why recession EoY, not sooner?

How about RRP?

Stronger or weaker the economy is in a NOMINAL sense, right?

Why is 2% important?

M2 ignores the trillions in money markets.

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor from Wealthion, thanks for the comment Stephen! I will bring this up during our next chat.

well he has sure walked back the major recession he was touting to at least a slow down! A bit more humility is needed professor!

@brianoleson9224

Ай бұрын

its bs , its clear it will happen in the short term 4 years after the pandemic the length before its known in your home and your neighbors home is no longer 5-10- 15 years away

"The facts were changed" - The facts didn't change. There were a few of us who were yelling from the roof tops "higher for longer" this whole time so not to have inflation come back but here we are... Bad players pumped the stock market while tricking retail traders and investors that AI technology was the next big thing. Now the big whales have sold off the top and the market is now dropping leaving retail holding the bag again. Also the increase in money supply started way before the pandemic...

The host said things look pretty good???

He sounds like Ben Stein

In spite of the cunning of art- ful political leaders, these three gifts from God precede all human legislation, and are superior to it. Life, liberty, and property do not exist because mankind have made laws. On the contrary, it was the fact that life, liberty, and property existed beforehand that caused men to make laws in the first place.

Except for fiat money printing by sovereign states.

Just love old guys who don't give a crap what everyone else is saying. EVERYBODY is saying rates aren't high enough and cuts aren't coming until 25 or 26. Hanke comes out and says Rates are way too high. Hahaha. He's correct BTW. Rates are getting cut this year. Probably in the next few months.

@LunaLapin-ho5tk

Ай бұрын

Don't underestimate the damage the DC clown show will do. Even if it's not working, the feds will probably keep increasing the interest rate to collapse the real estate market. Our gov't has no problem doing the same thing over and over always expecting a different result.

Monetarists vs. Eurodollarists debate

American will get big bobe

Summer.madness.comming.june.people would see the light of day.civil resulation.to.destution 😮😮😮

America dollars will.only be used in america.no.more.i.m.f or world bank sovereign debt.never ending inflation to failed state.😂😂😂

👍👍🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦➕️👏👏✌️✌️

The big reset

hes smart but he doesn't manage OPM

@FreedomAtRisk

Ай бұрын

@@geocam2 He's smarter than us.

That is simpy not true.

Steve, you are intentionally dismissing the method by which China overproduces. They essentially used slave labor. Yes it’s good for people like you in the wealthy, but what about the working class?

Steve Hanke is not trustworthy

We must print and type in more money and have price controls

@JohnReynolds-ni5lv

Ай бұрын

Price controls fail every time. Venezuela, Germany come to mind.

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and taking the time to view our content! I disagree with price controls. You have to let the market dictate prices. If prices are too high people stop buying,

@LunaLapin-ho5tk

Ай бұрын

Printing just increases inflation in every country that has tried in throughout history.

@MrXXY-yx8qr

Ай бұрын

Not if they have price controls

@LunaLapin-ho5tk

Ай бұрын

@@MrXXY-yx8qr Then you have absolutely nothing. Price controls just means that it will not be produced and that includes housing. That just makes the problem worse.

Lol when will recession begin is a joke question

@BloorStreetCapital

Ай бұрын

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Richard! Agreed but always good to put people on the spot.