How We’re Fooled By Statistics

Is punishment or reward more effective as feedback? Do new medical treatments really work? What about streaks in sport? Without considering regression to the mean, we are prone to making significant errors.
Check out Audible.com: bit.ly/ZJ5Q6z
Filmed at Perimeter Institute: pitp.ca
Is punishment or reward more effective for helping people learn. A lot of people would say different incentives motivate different people, or in different circumstances, but in psychology there is a sizable body of evidence that in order to learn skills, positive feedback is more effective. This fining has been verified not just with humans, but also with other species.
It was strange then that after Daniel Kahneman discussed this research with Israeli fighter pilot instructors that he was met with resistance. They found the opposite was true: when they reprimanded a cadet for performing poorly, he invariably improved, but if they praised a cadet for an excellent performance, the next attempt was not as good. In order to solve this apparent contradiction we first need to understand regression to the mean.
Teacher study: bit.ly/1h8puVT
Rugby player study: bit.ly/1aNSrBI

Пікірлер: 4 900

  • @seifer666
    @seifer66610 жыл бұрын

    One of your better videos It is unfortunate that your next likely will not be as good.

  • @veritasium

    @veritasium

    10 жыл бұрын

    let's hope skill plays a much larger role in my video creation than luck! ;)

  • @elijahfoster2

    @elijahfoster2

    8 жыл бұрын

    ***** I don't think you understood the video

  • @umnikos

    @umnikos

    8 жыл бұрын

    and you were right ;)

  • @codelab7379

    @codelab7379

    8 жыл бұрын

    +Veritasium exactly what i thought of when i saw the RtotheM concept. where does skill come in? - Carol Dweck's science seems to indicate one must praise the effort (though that too with a pinch of salt). Chess GMs become better by consistent application of certain principles - why not fighter pilots too? how does RTTM stack up in case of skilling? how much can things be applied to luck? is it always a lack of skill?

  • @xelaxander

    @xelaxander

    8 жыл бұрын

    +Ravi Srini I guess skill determines how high the average is. If you can achieve a high average quality in videos, as it is on this channel, your youtubing skills can't be particularly bad. XD

  • @littlebrother82
    @littlebrother823 жыл бұрын

    The book "the talent code" talks about the appropriate style of feedback according to skill level. A beginner needs more encouragement to improve, regardless of immediate outcomes, but relative expert is engaged and needs no encouragement, but they still require detailed feedback in order to correct their mistakes. Reversing those, I could see beginners giving up out of frustration, and experts rolling their eyes, feeling like their time is being wasted.

  • @danaolsongaming

    @danaolsongaming

    3 жыл бұрын

    Also check out "Thinking Fast and Slow." It's an amazing book that discusses the way our mind operates and how we trick ourselves constantly with data-related events.

  • @notyetdeleted6319

    @notyetdeleted6319

    3 жыл бұрын

    Mmmm, think it works better to pick apart every fail and flaw of beginners, they improve faster, work harder, and the ones you don’t want, (people who give up) leave due to frustration. Everyone is frustrated, everyone is unhappy, but results improve.

  • @TheKripox

    @TheKripox

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@notyetdeleted6319 This just seems silly. As Veritasium mentioned, most research indicates that positive feedback is more effective than negative feedback. Obviously if something is being done wrong it needs to be corrected, but leaning more towards praise than reprimands is widely believed to be the way to go. This idea that beginners will work harder when harshly criticised MIGHT have some merit in cases where they were already highly motivated to begin with, since at least then they are unlikely to quit immediately, but even then it seems suspect. Besides, results are never the best when everyone is frustrated and unhappy. Unhappy people are unproductive people in the long term, misery isn't good and misery isnt attractive. If the place makes everyone feel bad then people will want to leave. Why do something/work somewhere that makes your life worse when you could do something more enjoyable, right. Those who have the option to leave likely will.

  • @FairyRat

    @FairyRat

    3 жыл бұрын

    Makes a lot of sense.

  • @ericdew2021

    @ericdew2021

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@notyetdeleted6319 That's not going to work. Beginners (in a sport, say) have options. They have no interest in working harder or improving faster if they're being nitpicked at every step. They'll pick a different sport, or a different coach.

  • @Krekkertje
    @Krekkertje3 жыл бұрын

    Can we all take a moment to appreciate how good Derek is at drawing bell curves?

  • @haulin

    @haulin

    2 жыл бұрын

    Just look at that steady hand 2:15

  • @davidenatoh359

    @davidenatoh359

    Жыл бұрын

    @@haulin SHESH!!!

  • @ultimateman55

    @ultimateman55

    Жыл бұрын

    Unfortunately after he draws a particularly good one the next few seem to be not quite as good...

  • @lucienz1846

    @lucienz1846

    Жыл бұрын

    @@ultimateman55 Pretty cool how this kinda applies to the topic of the video. A cool coincidence.

  • @liptontea4876

    @liptontea4876

    11 ай бұрын

    @@lucienz1846that’s the joke

  • @MilanVucic94
    @MilanVucic942 жыл бұрын

    I read about this exact example in Daniel Kahneman's book "Thinking, fast and slow". It is an amazing example of a fallacy we're primed to believe since a young age, which actually proves detrimental to both the performance and mental well-being of a person always being reprimanded. It is just one of the many quirks of our mind that Daniel explores in the book, a big recommendation.

  • @Alex-fu4md
    @Alex-fu4md9 жыл бұрын

    2:13 Question #1 was really, really, really, really unfair.

  • @Aweseb64

    @Aweseb64

    9 жыл бұрын

    Most of them actually have no answer, that one is just a more well known paradox.

  • @albertpolak786

    @albertpolak786

    9 жыл бұрын

    And the first student (the good one) circled both answers in that question and scored 1/2 point. WTF? I should try this tactique at school.

  • @trulyUnAssuming

    @trulyUnAssuming

    9 жыл бұрын

    ***** but if it is true that it is a lie and a lie is another word for wrong, the statement is also wrong. So you can't really say it is true. Can you?

  • @trulyUnAssuming

    @trulyUnAssuming

    9 жыл бұрын

    ***** The point is - how can you correct an answer if there is no correct answer? So which one in the test was true? Would I have to tick true or false to get full points. Becasue in theory you would need to tick both. But Albert Polák said for this you would only get 1/2 points. So what is someone expected to do? So I thought you might have proof, if you state with that much conficence that it was true. But it doesn't seems like it ;-)

  • @BlueSun_

    @BlueSun_

    9 жыл бұрын

    Alex Jones The answer is simple it's false. Because the statement is referring to itself saying that it is both true and false (whenever you state something your implying that it is true [there is a bear here = it is true that there is a bear here]). Since this breaks the law of noncontradiction, the statement is false.

  • @BhanuPChauhan
    @BhanuPChauhan8 жыл бұрын

    2:22 Name: Jimmy Neutron Student # : 1.675 x 10^(-27)

  • @vibodhj349

    @vibodhj349

    5 жыл бұрын

    lol

  • @aidanginise

    @aidanginise

    5 жыл бұрын

    Thank you

  • @coolmodad

    @coolmodad

    5 жыл бұрын

    Clever

  • @divyanshasthana3014

    @divyanshasthana3014

    5 жыл бұрын

    Thats a good eye you got

  • @Sgrunterundt

    @Sgrunterundt

    5 жыл бұрын

    @@deletedchannel9945 And he got a point for answering that Veritasium is a real element in question two. You can see the questions at 2:10.

  • @misery8264
    @misery8264 Жыл бұрын

    I started a new job and my confidence in my skills isnt that high yet, but the guy teaching me believs in me. He sends me off doing stuff as if its nothing, even though it makes me nervous. That makes me proud, and I want to prove myself. So I try very very hard until I get it right. If he wouldnt believe in me, I'd be discouraged.

  • @rsedan
    @rsedan3 жыл бұрын

    A great video. I kept wishing that you would clarify that it isn't that *the next* event is likely to be better (after doing unusually poorly) or worse (after doing unusually well). It is that *any* event is likely to be average (by definition). There is nothing special about the next event. Thanks for a thoughtful video!

  • @dallaswood4117

    @dallaswood4117

    2 жыл бұрын

    Yep I caught that too it isn’t up down up down like wave lengths around the mean it is that most outcomes will be around the mean with more infrequent extreme highs and lows that’s literally what the bell curve shape represents

  • @disklamer

    @disklamer

    Жыл бұрын

    There is a great likeliness of the next performance being somewhat different though. Different within the average, but still.

  • @whippycream1
    @whippycream14 жыл бұрын

    I appreciate that you had to film yourself 49 times for those classroom shots!

  • @neurofiedyamato8763

    @neurofiedyamato8763

    3 жыл бұрын

    I appreciate you counted.

  • @SuperMaDBrothers

    @SuperMaDBrothers

    3 жыл бұрын

    I would like this comment but it has 49 likes

  • @pratiklomte

    @pratiklomte

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@SuperMaDBrothers then what's the problem?_

  • @kentvincentllano

    @kentvincentllano

    3 жыл бұрын

    I appreciate your appreciation for him!

  • @cesaralvarez202

    @cesaralvarez202

    3 жыл бұрын

    I appreciate that you appreciate the appreciation

  • @besmart
    @besmart10 жыл бұрын

    So, theoretically, we could watch or not watch this video, like it or dislike it, share it or not share it, and the next Veritasium video will either be better or worse? :)

  • @meh23p

    @meh23p

    10 жыл бұрын

    Only if you find it to be either, respectively, significantly worse or significantly better than usual.

  • @sydthegoat6773

    @sydthegoat6773

    10 жыл бұрын

    meh LOL

  • @summershine0360

    @summershine0360

    10 жыл бұрын

    @morris994 Hi there time to clean the browser history again :/

  • @bigballsgame5591

    @bigballsgame5591

    10 жыл бұрын

    :))))))

  • @hypercuriosity9828

    @hypercuriosity9828

    6 жыл бұрын

    It's Okay To Be Smart I love your channel Bro

  • @mattskord9178
    @mattskord91783 жыл бұрын

    “The negative feedback was a harsh reprimand and the positive feedback was a 👍🏻” Seems uneven but ok

  • @markplain2555

    @markplain2555

    3 жыл бұрын

    Exactly my thought. The school policy of emphasizing positive feedback is as effective as negative feedback. How about a balanced approach: you got it wrong your are told, "you got it wrong". You get it it right, "you are told you get it right" . As for 'encouragement': the more you practice, the luckier you get.

  • @TheBaggyT

    @TheBaggyT

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@markplain2555 As a Maths teacher (not in the US), I feel devastated every time I hear of people simply being told "you got it wrong". To me, that's a terrible teacher. Whenever I use that red cross of doom, there is always a comment next to it which explains what the issue is. A cross by itself is ridiculous and never helps anyone learn. But then, maybe I'm the exception... I don't know if many other teachers do the same. All I know is that many of my students tell me that I give the best feedback of any teacher they've ever had. Negative feedback sounds like an insult. Getting something wrong should still have positive feedback with it.

  • @deletioninducedin7days919

    @deletioninducedin7days919

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@TheBaggyT I feel like you're kinda "detrementing" them for the future of their education (no offence). Imagine that same class going on to have another teacher who puts a cross instead of any positive feedback on wrong answers. Anyways, have your students performed better in other tests because I find this topic very interesting? lol

  • @TheBaggyT

    @TheBaggyT

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@deletioninducedin7days919 Not sure what you're getting at, but yes, my students regularly perform better than other students in their year. The only exception is when I'm teaching a very low ability class, but even then, they often out-perform the expectations of the head of maths.

  • @tatri292

    @tatri292

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@TheBaggyT Tests/exams are a learning experience too. Obviously you should already know the material for best results but that's not always realistic. People learn from their mistakes but not being told what went wrong hampers that learning.

  • @ubaft3135
    @ubaft31353 жыл бұрын

    Selecting both answers on the question "This statement is a lie" and receiving 1/2 points is next level IQ

  • @guilhermebarcelos115

    @guilhermebarcelos115

    3 жыл бұрын

    Or maybe just leave them blank

  • @stevenscott2136

    @stevenscott2136

    2 жыл бұрын

    Those questions aren't all truly meaningless. For example, someone with a moderate knowledge of the periodic table (or Latin) will know that Veritasium is NOT an element. So there is a non-random factor in this allegedly random test.

  • @Unh0ly0ne

    @Unh0ly0ne

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@stevenscott2136 The premise was that the people taking the test do not know any answer and therefore have to guess everything, thus making it completly random. The questions provided on the test prop were a gimmick for your entertainment, or lack thereof.

  • @VVayVVard

    @VVayVVard

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@guilhermebarcelos115 Not answering usually means 0 points. But if you choose both, one of which must be true, by definition, you will necessarily be awarded 1/2 points. And this is the maximum you can obtain on this question; after all, if you only choose one, it will instantly become the wrong answer.

  • @guilhermebarcelos115

    @guilhermebarcelos115

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@VVayVVard I think it would be paradoxical and neither of which are correct, so leaving them blank would be “more correct”, specially if the wrong answer has a negative connotation. With that said, when choosing both you would not be half right, you would be double wrong!

  • @Yerg20
    @Yerg207 жыл бұрын

    That distribution at 2:18 was drawn brilliantly

  • @derbasti1586

    @derbasti1586

    3 жыл бұрын

    unfortunately it wont be drawn as brilliantly next time

  • @WilliamBradey
    @WilliamBradey8 жыл бұрын

    I wish my dad was smart enough to know this when I was growing up.

  • @dbgrfdg

    @dbgrfdg

    7 жыл бұрын

    :'(

  • @pawelregulski8967

    @pawelregulski8967

    6 жыл бұрын

    dbgrfdg Your profile picture contradicts your comment.

  • @snoopl2898

    @snoopl2898

    6 жыл бұрын

    With most negative parents it wouldn't have mattered.

  • @srinivaskari

    @srinivaskari

    5 жыл бұрын

    dad....I wish my teachers in school and college were smart like Derek while I was growing up. Fathers being smart is a matter of luck. Teachers being smart is a matter of government policy.

  • @Philo-ul2uq

    @Philo-ul2uq

    5 жыл бұрын

    @@srinivaskari government policy often fails.

  • @jerryoconnor9133
    @jerryoconnor91332 жыл бұрын

    I feel like regression of the mean is something I’ve applied so much in my life but never actually knew about.

  • @swaminathan_r1

    @swaminathan_r1

    4 ай бұрын

    Yeaa Yeaa, you know everything

  • @jerryoconnor9133

    @jerryoconnor9133

    3 ай бұрын

    yes! @@swaminathan_r1

  • @shawnyellowbird5358
    @shawnyellowbird53583 жыл бұрын

    This is ALOT of effort to explain our last Golf outing, dude...

  • @SenorJoeBiden

    @SenorJoeBiden

    3 жыл бұрын

    lol

  • @Wifi_Cable
    @Wifi_Cable10 жыл бұрын

    This is why I love science. I clicked on this video thinking... why is a physicist talking about psychology? Why? Because science has to take into account all sides, this is one many people probably overlook.

  • @amaldabe
    @amaldabe7 жыл бұрын

    I wish my teacher would say "Great work!" whenever I got a 61/100.

  • @archockencanto1645

    @archockencanto1645

    3 жыл бұрын

    Well that's pretty bad soo... Donno why he would (if he genuinely said that instead of just blurting put good work to every student regardless of their scores).

  • @TrickShotKoopa

    @TrickShotKoopa

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@archockencanto1645 It would be a lie to make him feel better. The original comment is clearly for humorous purposes anyway, so I'm not sure why you're taking it so seriously and acting rude.

  • @archockencanto1645

    @archockencanto1645

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@TrickShotKoopa What a snowflake generation. Now this is called rude and everything ever is a joke so some weasel has a way out always. God help us from the hole we're going to.

  • @TrickShotKoopa

    @TrickShotKoopa

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@archockencanto1645 Not everything is a joke. I find it unfortunate that you are incapable of distinguishing between a joke and a statement. Regardless, you seem quite pessimistic about life, so I hope you find something which makes you happy.

  • @archockencanto1645

    @archockencanto1645

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@TrickShotKoopa You just lack the experience because of your age. You will realise reality in 10-15 years.

  • @lucyfyrearchoftwilight1760
    @lucyfyrearchoftwilight17603 жыл бұрын

    I'm surprised he didn't bring up the fact that the test was poorly executed anyway. What they should have done was to give negative feedback to both groups and then, to other test groups, give positive feedback to both groups. That would help reduce "regression to the mean" as a factor.

  • @Mothuzad

    @Mothuzad

    3 жыл бұрын

    I was thinking along these lines as well. It's not even that controlling the test would mitigate regression to the mean, but it would eliminate the bias of selecting pilots for praise/reprimand based on their skill level.

  • @melkbot

    @melkbot

    2 жыл бұрын

    Wouldn't this just increase the group size, rather than solving regression to the mean?

  • @lucyfyrearchoftwilight1760

    @lucyfyrearchoftwilight1760

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@melkbot Yes but it would also reduce undesirable factors that would taint the results.

  • @MaxLohMusic

    @MaxLohMusic

    2 жыл бұрын

    He did briefly mention that this is why control groups are so important

  • @WTFBOOMDOOM

    @WTFBOOMDOOM

    2 жыл бұрын

    And the testosterone thing... Chances are that the players with higher testosterone generally are better.

  • @michaelmontgomery5141
    @michaelmontgomery51413 жыл бұрын

    Like your channel. As a manager and scientist, the most important idea is to maintain communication with direct reports. Staying out of blame and asking questions help staff focus on the important things like values and group culture.these studies are important yet they isolate behaviors without context to the whole. Thus the point is well made. And what is also important includes perception of and individual performance to the group. And if done correctly, group influence actually means more than just my impact.

  • @chungdha
    @chungdha10 жыл бұрын

    I have to say constructional feedback is the best I hate when teachers give me an a- without explaining why it's not an a+ just because they say there is room of improvement or it's a way so I would keep try harder. It's better to actually know what I did wrong and how it can improve.

  • @Agnemons

    @Agnemons

    3 жыл бұрын

    You need to figure out for your self what you need to do to improve. You won't always have a teacher there to guide you.

  • @SherrifOfNottingham

    @SherrifOfNottingham

    3 жыл бұрын

    I had a teacher that would give you a 93 whenever you had a perfect score, there was no way to score higher. It bred a hostile environment where no student strived to even try leading to her class eventually having the worst grades of all the other teachers of her subject. Fact is, if you want to motivate students you can't use negativity to hope to get anywhere, that myth that "there's always room for improvement" makes no sense on a test where a perfect score is a 93, all it does is mean that one failure is a B, making the goal beyond perfection leads to being a demotivational tool. It's like forcing your first year science kids to land a probe on the moon, they are going to take one look at the goal and blow your class off to watch cartoons since doing the impossible isn't worth thinking about.

  • @chungdha

    @chungdha

    3 жыл бұрын

    ​@@SherrifOfNottingham Yes, that is what happened as I clearly took a lot of time for a project and made it as best as possible and next kid who just flunk something together get same score. I was like damn I don't need to do my best, just deliver something that is good enough and not even care about that class anymore. It only demotivated the good students and not even motivate the bad students to do any better. While teacher that really improved the class motivation to improve their work showed the best projects to the class after, so all can learn differences between their own project with theirs and know how to improve or strive for.

  • @zappyapp

    @zappyapp

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@Agnemons I hate the "You won't always have a ___ with you" argument

  • @SgtSupaman

    @SgtSupaman

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@Agnemons , yep, nothing teaches better than the ole "figure it out yourself" method... \s The entire point of having the teacher there is for them to teach. Don't excuse them not doing their job.

  • @kikook222
    @kikook22210 жыл бұрын

    I was told, by many psychology professors, that punishment is very effective at promoting or deterring behavior, it's actually too effective. However, negative reinforcement and positive reinforcement are usually better at keeping the desired behavior more habitual. When using a punishment paradigm you risk the chance the undesired behavior comes back when the punishment is no longer present. It's true to positive and negative reinforcement, I believe they call it extinction, but it isn't as detrimental as punishment. Just to clarify, negative reinforcement is not punishment. It is escaping a stimulus that is aversive, which ends up becoming a behavior. Ex. Some people put their seat belt on because they don't want to hear the sound of the seat bell alarm. They are trying to escape that stimulus but aren't being punished by it. Punishment is a stimulus given after a behavior that's meant to be aversive but isn't present before the the behavior.

  • @ii795
    @ii7952 жыл бұрын

    It's interesting, I actually read Kahneman's book, but I still find your way of presenting this idea very fresh. You are a really good educator.

  • @MrAmrmnabil
    @MrAmrmnabil3 жыл бұрын

    I love this video, it's amazing. Though i understood every word of it. I am replaying it over once again.

  • @shorifulhaque5137
    @shorifulhaque51373 жыл бұрын

    2:20 That's a nicely drawn curve, Derek. Well done.

  • @nathanwaltrip7220

    @nathanwaltrip7220

    3 жыл бұрын

    But then the next curve he drawn was pretty crappy. I guess his video right then ehh?

  • @shorifulhaque5137

    @shorifulhaque5137

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@nathanwaltrip7220 Circle of lif- regression

  • @DaniloSilva-wf2zp
    @DaniloSilva-wf2zp5 жыл бұрын

    This was such a serious lecture. Congrats for the work done

  • @30110CKs
    @30110CKs3 жыл бұрын

    Having spent decades training people in both technical fields and martial arts, my experience is that it depends on the type of person you are. Most people are encouraged by positive feedback, some are encouraged even more by negative feedback while others are discouraged.

  • @pegasisilver6249

    @pegasisilver6249

    3 жыл бұрын

    This is what the topic should be about. Personally i hate to get positive feedback. it makes me uncomfortable. Constructive negative feedback is my bag.

  • @mavvos

    @mavvos

    3 жыл бұрын

    Sure it makes sense to be subjective with each interaction but we need to have a method that statistically works better with a greater population, in this case positive feedback, so even in this example you have a higher chance of hitting the right method from the start

  • @bobcatgaze
    @bobcatgaze2 жыл бұрын

    The United States Army has already developed a solution to this. It's called the "After Action Review" and I find that it's a wholly superior method. It consists of the following phases. 1. Review of what our goals were. 2. Review of what actually happened. Did we accomplish those goals? 3. What did we do well that helped us accomplish those goals? 4. What did we mess up, and how can we improve more for next time? 5. Develop a more refined game plan for next time. This takes the 'punishment' element and puts it in a more constructive light. One takes an honest look at what actions could have resulted in failure, but ONLY with the understanding that we're in a learning process. Punishments/chastisement rarely ever logically work anyway, because: 1. All chastisement runs the risk of demotivating anyone. 2. Those who are truly motivated to do better will continue to do so in spite of the chastisement. 3. Those who are NOT truly motivated to do better will not improve anyway... and require a better incentive (i.e a reward) in order to improve. This is why the Army focuses on positive feedback, and straightforward constructive criticism. Now, before anyone starts telling me "Then why do Drill Instructors always yell at new enlistees?" That is because they are being trained for stress resilience. It is mental hardening. That's a different exercise entirely.

  • @Fai9aalTS
    @Fai9aalTS5 жыл бұрын

    This concept is very underrated and is really hard to integrate from a raw thought into an explainable concept

  • @deschia_
    @deschia_5 жыл бұрын

    Man these veritasium videos from the ancient times sure are starting to surface again on my feed.

  • @Miju001

    @Miju001

    2 жыл бұрын

    Oh man I hadn't even noticed this video was so old

  • @enriqueflimberger
    @enriqueflimberger9 ай бұрын

    When watching your videos I usually like them, then start to watch in full screen. Then for 3 or 4 times during the video I will go out of full screen wondering if I already liked the video. I wish I could like it multiple times. Excelent video.

  • @leonbaumann3343
    @leonbaumann33432 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for explaining! This has helped a lot.

  • @ashwith
    @ashwith10 жыл бұрын

    What I learned from this video: Derek has the ability to take something which I found really dull (statistics) and turn it into the most interesting thing I've seen today :-)

  • @Sammysapphira

    @Sammysapphira

    10 жыл бұрын

    Statistics ifs far from dull. The only difference is it's not a 60 year old downie reading facts from a book.

  • @ashwith

    @ashwith

    10 жыл бұрын

    benblue3 I don't disagree with you after watching this video :-)

  • @Kram1032

    @Kram1032

    10 жыл бұрын

    The thing is, he started with the motivation to a subject, and it is a good motivation, so the way in which it relates to statistics actually is interesting.

  • @AngleCoreWow
    @AngleCoreWow10 жыл бұрын

    THE DIFFERENCE IS GROUP VS SINGLE CADET.... a group is able to converse and feel an emotion towards something in unison, thus strengthening said emotion. A single cadet is alone and unable to feel with his comrades, making it an all around internal battle, rather than external,(as a team would do). It's really easy to think about if you just put your self into those situations.

  • @attilagergely6734
    @attilagergely67343 жыл бұрын

    Inspirational and instructive video. Thanks.

  • @nicholasherrera1785
    @nicholasherrera17852 жыл бұрын

    Thank you, i appreciate your videos. You have a great job!

  • @descai10
    @descai1010 жыл бұрын

    Its simple. When you get good feedback, you think you do really good at it, and because of that, think you don't have to try as hard. But it can help you have some confidence in yourself. Negative feedback will make you try to get better to make sure you do it better the next time, but to much negative feedback can make you give up. The best is a mix between the two.

  • @BaieDesBaies
    @BaieDesBaies3 жыл бұрын

    "This statement is a lie" True/False LMAO dude you got me 😄

  • @holl0918

    @holl0918

    3 жыл бұрын

    "Nothing is true all the time."

  • @capitaopacoca8454

    @capitaopacoca8454

    3 жыл бұрын

    Is Veritasium a real element?

  • @bruhbroham8760

    @bruhbroham8760

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@capitaopacoca8454 no

  • @BrianOSheaPlus

    @BrianOSheaPlus

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@capitaopacoca8454 Veritasium is a made-up element name. It's a pun on the Latin word for truth, and is meant to convey the meaning of "an element of truth". For some trivia, they gave it the atomic number 42 as a reference to Douglas Adams' book The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. However, 42 is actually the atomic number of the real element molybdenum.

  • @capitaopacoca8454

    @capitaopacoca8454

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@bruhbroham8760 I didn't ask this. It was on the test.

  • @online6348
    @online6348 Жыл бұрын

    I feel as though we as humans love to have shortcuts and clear answers that are either black or white, but in real life, finding a balance in the middle is key in almost everything. I feel like the positive/negative feedback debate shouldn’t be about which one is better or which one helps more. I think it should be about which one you should choose in each different situation that requires feedback. For example, if you have two pilots training for the same exercise and one is doing great while the other isn’t, you shouldn’t use exclusively positive feedback or vice versa. You should adjust your method of giving feedback based on the performance of the person. Because even though in this exemple, both people are doing the same exercice, they do not have the same needs in their understanding of the exercice for them to be better at it. I feel like for example, the one who’s doing good would benefit more from (not negative but) constructive criticism, so that the person can still find ground to evolve from and not get stuck in a lazy place because they were great from the start. Giving exclusively positive feedback to someone who’s doing good can easily make them fall in a confort zone because the mind stops working to find ways to surpass itself (and with time it can regress) and same goes for the person who’s struggling and how negative feedback can affect their ability to trust themselves and concentrate on doing better. Sometimes when you are too stuck in a negative cloud, you can’t see anything positive anymore and you can get lost in a desperate state where you think you are inherently bad at something because of that initial experience and response that you had. Finally, i think the danger lays in thinking that there is ONE better way, its either positive or negative but no, we should always adjust. (I havent watched the video yet so I might change my mind after this if I discover something i didn’t think about :3 )

  • @lillifohrer365
    @lillifohrer3652 жыл бұрын

    Nice explanation!! Thank u so much

  • @phillipjones2278
    @phillipjones22783 жыл бұрын

    It’s important to qualify that the concept of regressing to the mean is only as powerful as the inherent variability in case-by-case performance. Human behavior is not entirely dictated by random chance so this concept doesn’t necessarily speak to the effectiveness on negative or positive feedback in relatively controllable circumstances (such as encouraging or discouraging behaviors brought about by conscious choice)

  • @tahroo4262
    @tahroo426210 жыл бұрын

    Most of my thought pattern on this video went from "Hey, this is like what Jeffrey Lin is doing for Riot and League of Legends!" to... "Woo, where did he find chalkboards?"

  • @electablebee
    @electablebee3 жыл бұрын

    I've noticed there are so many videos on this channel about the book, Thinking Fast and Slow. I'm reading it right now and these are super cool to watch and recap!

  • @bobl1769
    @bobl17692 жыл бұрын

    Brilliantly presented.

  • @blackboxdisease
    @blackboxdisease10 жыл бұрын

    I believe that the only thing learned through reward is how to get a reward. I suppose it's all about what we are learning as well. When we learn not to do something, it is usually through negative re-enforcement and the opposite through positive re-enforcement. However there are so many variables that it becomes hazy to know when negative or positive re-enforcement should be used for improvement. It is also expected that by using both, eventually an equilibrium is created and each persons equilibrium can be different and can change from time to time, that equilibrium being the point where one is content with oneself at the moment where one doesn't feel the need or expect a reward for learning something, and is also aware of possible consequences which is reward in itself, because one then avoids that which may cause harm, be it mental, physical, or psychological. I realise as well, that those who always seek reward tend to be self-centered, and greedy and often are not aware of or care for consequences resulting in their need for reward. These people I believe to have great difficulty with the negative aspect of learning and have emotional imbalances. When I became aware of this subject, it was hard not to notice it, see it in action and the results created, in my workplace and with the daily interaction of people. This also allowed me to know each persons state of equilibrium and the amount of balance or imbalance, and how it affects the person which in turn seems to effect their personality traits and reveals the level of aptitude they may have.

  • @user-lv7bo3bc8d
    @user-lv7bo3bc8d10 жыл бұрын

    What if it has to do with how much respect people have for the instructor? I know that for teachers I dislike and don't respect, negative feedback makes me contentious and positive feedback makes me annoyed, but with teachers I do like, negative feedback makes me want to try harder and positive feedback makes me lax. In the case of the fighter pilots, the pilots are trained to respect and not fail the instructors, so maybe they'll try a lot better to not disappoint and to not be reprimanded. Meanwhile, many students loathe their teachers, so they wouldn't care. However, for the sports team, it could be a case where the players don't want to let their coach down, and those who are castigated actually feel letdown and they perform better because they are depressed a bit. Just a thought.

  • @jacobpaint
    @jacobpaint3 жыл бұрын

    Thinking Fast and Slow is a great book and the Israeli pilot training is a memorable analogy. I wonder what the studies say about the type of positive feedback and the longer term affects. If you give students a participation award and praise them for average or even below average work then maybe they do find encouragement in that the first couple of times but they might soon adjust and realise that the praise is empty.

  • @BigBundy82
    @BigBundy823 жыл бұрын

    I love this episode- Awesome. Accurate. thank you for making this!)

  • @AmazingHaloForges
    @AmazingHaloForges10 жыл бұрын

    This video was fascinating, but I feel like it wasn't really about punishment vs. reward so much as positive feedback vs. negative feedback. I guess I'm just curious to see how (for example) kids might react to discipline or candy.

  • @niqhtt

    @niqhtt

    10 жыл бұрын

    not trying to be a generic non-answer, but i truly believe they need both. Although some will respond more to another based on their personality. Overall they need love and acknowledgement, but they also need to know failing is ok and part of life and that in the end they aren't less because of it.

  • @AlexanderZapataIndividual

    @AlexanderZapataIndividual

    10 жыл бұрын

    If you seek to programm behaviour into people, I suggest you look into ridiculing [The Effects]. Straight off the bat this sounds evil but its effective and can be used for good.

  • @MrWorldWide581

    @MrWorldWide581

    10 жыл бұрын

    Make sure to check out Plethrons . They have some pretty good content!

  • @alejandrinos

    @alejandrinos

    10 жыл бұрын

    Itsover ninethousand That comparison is ridiculous. Punishment is meant to teach a lesson to the kid. You don't punish your girlfriend or your friends because it's not your job to teach them how to behave. It's a completely different relationship.

  • @itisdevonly

    @itisdevonly

    10 жыл бұрын

    alejandrinos Children deserve to be treated as people, too, though. When they misbehave it's not like they're doing it out of malice. It's that it takes time for them to learn. Punishing them distracts them from the lesson and teaches them to look at situations selfishly, as in "how will this affect me?" instead of its larger impact. Talking with kids is a better way to improve their behavior, and it promotes a better parent-child relationship as well, which is important if you want your kids to keep listening to you as they get older.

  • @BobbyOfEarth
    @BobbyOfEarth10 жыл бұрын

    I can personally relate to this statistical phenomenon. After not having done so for months or even years, I've gone out to shoot a couple rounds of Trap (its shotgun shooting sport) or had gone rolled a couple games of bowling. In every case, my first round of Trap, I would shoot 23-24 trap out of the 25 targets and likewise my first game of bowling, I'd score of 195 or above, however, any following attempts at either sport, always yielded a less impressive score....15 for Trap and 123 for bowling. After years of seeing this phenomenon, (I'm 60 yrs old) I discovered that there were two common denominators in each sport. Firstly, I had developed the biomechanical skills from years of practice. Secondly, I had experienced a sense of greatness with the results of the first attempt relative to each sport. As I became more intent in subsequent attempts, my desire to improve the results had shifted me away from my naturally developed skills. I realized that by not being trained as an professional Athlete, I did not have the concentration skills necessary to maintain the results and would consistently do much better by utilizing my naturally developed skills, rather then forcing myself to perform.

  • @JackHHartnett
    @JackHHartnett3 жыл бұрын

    connection! Regression to the mean begs redemption day by day. Thank you for your work, the message at the end was great too

  • @elijahullmann6231
    @elijahullmann6231 Жыл бұрын

    This is one of my favorite videos of all time!

  • @beegum1
    @beegum110 жыл бұрын

    I believe in consistent honest feedback. Consistency is actually the key to whole thing. Also, the notion of one disciplinary technique is the best fit for all people is flawed at the most basic level.

  • @veritasium

    @veritasium

    10 жыл бұрын

    Couple points - I agree consistency is important. But when you say "the notion of one disciplinary technique is the best fit for all people is flawed at the most basic level" it sounds like a hypothesis. Studies across species have shown that to help individuals, say, find their way through a maze, rewards work better than punishments. There may be exceptions, but I don't think they break the rule.

  • @beegum1

    @beegum1

    10 жыл бұрын

    Veritasium As a matter of fact, I recently heard tell of an article wherein a study cherry picked well behaved children to see how they were disciplines. 60% had parents who spanked them, this discipline normally dies out between 6 and 8 years of age. One must be careful that their understanding of disciplinary studies isn't colored by media editing based on flawed assumptions regarding normal human development. If, for instance, you're under the impression that children 'learn' to misbehave, rather than are born with their own personality, you would appear to be making a mistake, although one inexplicably common amongst many intellectual elites, but, not shared by the actual clinicians who do the actual work. 

  • @ShougoAmakusa
    @ShougoAmakusa10 жыл бұрын

    An important video for people currently in university or otherwise writing scientific papers. You'll understand why when you watch it. Also when it comes to positive vs negative feedback to students and players, keeping someone's attitude and outlook on life feels more important than rubbing in their performance on previous tasks(both positively and negatively).

  • @shawnhughes7760
    @shawnhughes77602 жыл бұрын

    This is fantastic! I have done many statistical studies, and you have challenged my thinking! Shawn R. Hughes, Ph.D.

  • @EEvilG
    @EEvilG3 жыл бұрын

    This very interesting video could be even more interesting if it addressed how the mean moves over time. Since nothing exists in a vacuum, our attempts to measure and influence do, eventually, move the mean one way or another. The way this video was presented, and I'm sure that wasn't the intent, kind of made it sound like the mean eventually overpowers any attempt to derive meaningful information from cause and effect studies. One place where this becomes extremely obvious is in the movement of price for currencies on the foreign exchange market. There, there is a very strong tendency for price to revert to the mean and revisit previous price levels, but the mean is constantly moving, since price is constantly moving. It becomes much more challenging to figure when things are at an extreme, and when they are actually not because the mean has slowly shifted due to the repetition of certain events (price points) being over represented. Derek you are an excellent communicator and you make amazing videos. Even though this video is 8 years old, I would love it if you made one addressing the points I mentioned above, namely the movement of the mean and moving averages over time, as sample sizes increase and feedback loops are introduced.

  • @hiwayM9
    @hiwayM910 жыл бұрын

    Wonderful video, wonderful. As a parent of an autistic child, I struggled with this scenario and could have used this knowledge decades ago when she was young. Being a communications disease with many a spectrum under it's umbrella, autism tests the parent's ability to dole out any lessons in cause and effect to the more severe of it's victims. I went from both ends of the range on positive and negative reinforcement over the years attempting to teach my daughter some sort of social cohesiveness- at no point, or at any time in all those years (she is now grown and struggling as an adult) did I ever feel as if either option offered any progress. I came to the conclusion that ultimately, negative reinforcement is far more draining, exhaustive, and generally debilitating to all parties involved, and especially to those souls who live and are part of the fringe and outer circles of that relationship. Negativity breeds a dark environment where at the very least, positivity shines a little light on an otherwise cumbersome day.

  • @veritasium

    @veritasium

    10 жыл бұрын

    I'm glad this video was relevant to your life. As I thought more about the statistical phenomena we are exposed to everyday, I was startled to realize all the things we mistakenly interpret as causal, which actually aren't. And I wholeheartedly agree that negative feedback is draining so it's always important to comment on the positives.

  • @hiwayM9

    @hiwayM9

    10 жыл бұрын

    Sai While I will grant you I walk the line in my post regarding equating punishment with negative reinforcement- it is out of a desire to communicate succinctly with a broader audience who may or may not consider the nuances between the 2. I assure you though I am still on point as to contemplate, and continually devise new reinforcements, or to make adjustments is "cumbersome" which makes for a very negative environment when you also consider the fact that my daughter, and many other people under the autism umbrella, do not respond to any reinforcement or punishments- there seemed to be no way of motivating, or focusing my daughter to maintain any sort of consistent socially acceptable behavior that would allow her a productive participation in society. I respect your desire to clarify- and I agree that there is little of that in these modern times- but at what point does over clarifying become no different than over simplification? Are you positively reinforcing my post, or are you punishing me for not being as definitive as you feel one should be? Who set the standards in the goal of the post, and whose criteria is used to judge it's worth to the world? Me thinks the masses make this determination- the readers do- but still- is that a positive reinforcement that I am right? If no one commented, or "+1" my post- does that make it irrelevant? Please do not answer those questions as they are only to help point out how finding the line between reinforcement and punishment can be a chore- seeing as you are "in class" ...I on the other hand, speak from experience.

  • @hiwayM9

    @hiwayM9

    10 жыл бұрын

    Sai Unfortunately- my lack of financial resources did not allow me to explore as many options, or even the select few as thoroughly as they may deserved- basic survival was the norm for us. So I cannot safely insinuate I was successful or imply I found any solid evidence of any specific method. She currently struggles tremendously- and with the country having become less tolerant of social programs in general, and with austerity mechanisms implemented, her life is not remotely a good experience. Now- if I could speculate on what I believe are factors to a successful approach in these matters (and at the risk of being labeled a utopic son of a bitch) I would say that most important would be community- meaning that the old adage, "It takes a village to raise a child" will always be true in the human creature- we need the social or tribal resources and no person is truly an island. Within that community there needs to be a consensus on cause and effect- regardless of specific special needs- there can be no shades of effect based on some arbitrary criteria. By the same token- expectations should match the rules- parents should carefully pick and choose their battles. If a parent is going to hand out an effect at every instance of what they see as misbehavior, well, I hope they can give up sleep as well as sanity. I could go into an entire monologue on bio-ethical viewpoints- but then I would absolutely cause readers to cringe, and not because I support them, but because those opinions do exist, and lend themselves to current animosity to the poverty and downtrodden, I leave well enough alone.

  • @danheidel
    @danheidel10 жыл бұрын

    One thing that could also influence the effectiveness of of positive/negative feedback is the personality of the people involved. For example, fighter pilots tend to be super alpha males with big chips on their shoulders. Positive reinforcement may not have much effect on them as they already view themselves in a very positive light. Getting them to change via smacking them down a peg or two may in fact be what works better. On the other hand, using boot camp techniques on a bunch of grandmas in a yoga class is probably not going to have a very good result.

  • @UniversalPotentate

    @UniversalPotentate

    10 жыл бұрын

    EXACTLY!! To extend on your idea, there are probably a variety of factors involved. Skill might also be an issue. People of low skill (students) might need positive reinforcement to continue to engage in the activity as their results don't show competence. People of high skill (fighter pilots) might need negative reinforcement because the only thing they could improve on is how much their "head is in the game." Ego, Skill, what they had for breakfast and the precession of Venus might all be factors which must be controlled to gain the best outcome.

  • @MeisterHaar

    @MeisterHaar

    10 жыл бұрын

    UniversalPotentate there is even more. you should take into account what the person is doing. in school you might get bored students to work in a subject with using positiv feedback, but you only become a pilot when you are really into that and you really want to do that so if you did something poorly you want to improve next time.

  • @scharftalicous
    @scharftalicous3 жыл бұрын

    Wow! you've been at this for this (and more) longer!? no wonder you got viral, your content is clean.

  • @MattFitzgerald
    @MattFitzgerald3 жыл бұрын

    This book completely changed my outlook on life. It’s pretty crazy.

  • @VictorCaldo
    @VictorCaldo4 жыл бұрын

    Coming back to clarify some concepts, still an excellent explanation full of relatable examples. Thanks!

  • @acruzp
    @acruzp9 жыл бұрын

    I'm torn between my love for Veritasium and my love for Vsauce.

  • @danesebruno

    @danesebruno

    9 жыл бұрын

    Toss a coin and see which one you like best.

  • @Treblaine

    @Treblaine

    9 жыл бұрын

    Subscribe to both so that youtube can hide both of their latest updates from you. Seriously youtube. I subscribe and my homepage is entirely full of "Watch it again" "Recommended" and other crap OTHER THAN MY ACTUAL SUBSCRIPTIONS!

  • @acruzp

    @acruzp

    9 жыл бұрын

    Treblaine well change your settinfs

  • @Treblaine

    @Treblaine

    9 жыл бұрын

    Andres .C I fiddled with them before and got nowhere. I guess I'll try again.

  • @WinterandNoodle

    @WinterandNoodle

    9 жыл бұрын

    Treblaine There is a thing called "My subscriptions." it will show the latest video of the channel that you subscribe. kzread.infosubscriptions

  • @dd_the_dd
    @dd_the_dd Жыл бұрын

    I think there is many factors involve in learning. But in the case of positive and negative feedback, the biggest difference between positive and negative feedback, is that positive can increase your motive to learn what your learning. Because positive feedback respond to the human's need to feel good, feel love, get attention and believe in our potential, even if all of this is intense, it is also more pleasant to be suround with positiveness than negativeness. So in general, in your group, the mean should increase if you use positive feedback because you augment the motive and the feel good feeling of the student. A student motivated or that feel good gonna put more effort, more focus and maybe gonna practice on is own. Feedback is feedback so if you have relevant feedback, you still gonna be listen by those who are motivated. But positive is in the most case the best. But why then the jet student has different results. I like the explanation of the video, but still, I believe there is a causal explanation. I tougth first, that the motivation of a jet class, since you have a hard process to be there, would not be a random sampling of the population motivation that you would have most of the time in other studies. But then a remember that in my high level badminton class I would see the impact of a coach with positive vs negative feedback. So that is not it because a pleasant environment is still really important. However there is an extern variable in the case of the jet learning. Driving a jet is dangerous, we all know that if you do a bad move, you can die by screwing up. So I think that a negative feedback when you do those class make you remember the relevance of the information that's gonna come if you do not wanna die. So in that case, remembering you could die, gonna put your focus on the highest you have. The think is a negative feedback in a situation so relevant like that doesn't event feel unpleasant and it increase focus. The idea actually come from my lesson from lead in climbing. I had that focus that I do not have as high as when I knew the feedback couldn't save my life. It would be interesting to test another jet class or another class of something dangerous to see if we observed the same behavior of if the statistique gonna win again ;) It is not base on any paper or something, and I'm open to change my tought :)

  • @williammccay5903
    @williammccay59033 жыл бұрын

    Awesome content. Thanks veritassium!

  • @TheHiddenbox1
    @TheHiddenbox110 жыл бұрын

    as a highschool student i can tell you now that we tend to do better if promised a reward

  • @isa.sharif

    @isa.sharif

    10 жыл бұрын

    I see the same thing in my school, when a teacher promises us a reward, everyone tries his best to be the winner, even when we find out the reward isn't really valuable. But when the teacher whoever doesn't do well in an exam, or a class, it makes most students don't even try answering, because they fear to make a mistake, which really doesn't help them. But a teacher once told a student who has bad grades and never does a good thing in class to solve a problem(in math) to let him go out of class early, he handed his solved problem before any other student in the class.

  • @asket6509
    @asket65095 жыл бұрын

    "Not Quite my Tempo!"

  • @--.._

    @--.._

    4 жыл бұрын

    If you get this reference, you the man.

  • @Ignirium

    @Ignirium

    3 жыл бұрын

    "why do you suppose I just hurled a chair at your head Neiman?"

  • @whispersilk
    @whispersilk3 жыл бұрын

    I read about this like two weeks before seeing this video in Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, good stuff.

  • @cal1k
    @cal1k3 жыл бұрын

    I really wanna say you do a fantastic job at making your videos timeless. I can never tell when they were made until I look at the date.

  • @julianzacconievas
    @julianzacconievas10 жыл бұрын

    Excellent video, man. You nailed it. Positive reinforcement with dogs has proven to me a lot better at teaching them new tricks, while negative reinforcement has proven more effective at interrupting unwanted behaviour. So for me it would be "if you are trying to teach how to do something, use positive reinforcement; if you are trying to teach not to do something, use negative reinforcement" .. Of course you could say "we are teaching pilots not to make mistakes".. Still I think my idea has a little something to it..

  • @anthonyred3991
    @anthonyred399110 жыл бұрын

    just because many of the data we collect fits a normal distribution, doesn't mean that the normal distribution is some kind of natural law that governs performances of humans. complex actions cannot be easily quantified in that respect- it's very hard to evaluate objectively which performances are good and which are bad. also: it doesn't violate any physical law, if a novelist is getting "better" with each book, or an athlete with each competition et cetera.

  • @KageRyuu6

    @KageRyuu6

    10 жыл бұрын

    First thing, much, not many. Second, statistics in general are about as objective as it gets. Lastly, using artists, as that is what authors are artists of the written word, in an analogy about statistics is about as subjective as it gets given one's enjoyment of their craft is dependent entirely upon each individual, however the performance of an athlete can be quantified given the rules of the game they play, so comparing them in the same analogy is a fallacy.

  • @anthonyred3991

    @anthonyred3991

    10 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for correcting my grammar. Being not a native speaker of the english language, it's always helpful to get advice in that regard, so please also keep an eye out for potential mistakes in this comment. I have to add though, that "data" can be seen to be either plural or singular, so my version is also correct, albeit maybe a little unfamiliar to you. Now: 1) What did you mean to imply with the remark "Second, statistics in general are about as objective as it gets."? I don't see any connection to what I said, or any meaning behind these words in general. Did you mean the mathematical field of "statistics", or the results of satistical analysis of certain phenomena? I certainly didn't criticize statistics in general, just that the conclusions about reality, that were drawn in the video, were drawn from mathematical concepts, not empirical measurement. That is: Regression to the mean is not a universal law of nature- I could for example built 5 towers in my life, each one bigger than the next. This is an obvious fallacy in my eyes. 2) The evaluation of the performance of a pupil in class is also massively subjective (I'm not talking about tests here). As is the evaluation of most complex human activities- this was my point. So whereas the performances of individual athletes in certain disciplines can be quantified with ease, in many other disciplines they cannot- for example: football, boxing, dancing, etc. Of course quantification of many single aspects of the performances is straightforward, but it's certainly not easy to attach a single number to each performance. Therefore talking of athletes and novelists in the same sentence - I didn't compare them explicitly, by the way, they were just part of the same enumeration - doesn't constitute a fallacy, and I could have also legitimately added scientists and painters and whatever happens to cross your mind.

  • @elliottmcollins

    @elliottmcollins

    10 жыл бұрын

    Regression to the mean works with any distribution, not just the Normal distribution. And if everyone is getting better over time, it means that the average itself is changing. The lesson still holds at any given time that the ones scoring much higher than average today will probably not score as high above average tomorrow.

  • @anthonyred3991

    @anthonyred3991

    10 жыл бұрын

    +Elliot Collins I'm not an expert in math, though I'm not sure if what you said holds true for power laws. Also: Your comment doesn't touch on the issue, my main argument, that it's hard to quantify most human actions (I'm not sure, for example, how you could rigorously quantify the performance of jet pilots for example...), therfore you mostly don't even get a distribution (as you have no data). We don't have "laws" of human behavior, that mathematically model our actions, so the whole thing about regression to the mean is more of a metaphor, than an actual law that could be violated. Therefore I don't take it too seriously. No more than that, did I intend to say! If you still disagree, it's okay

  • @elliottmcollins

    @elliottmcollins

    10 жыл бұрын

    ***** I agree that it's hard to quantify behavior, but that doesn't mean it's impossible or unreliable. We quantify performance on tests, amount of money made or spent, popularity of youtube videos, percentage of times a fighter jet's maneuver works, etc. etc. There aren't deterministic laws for social science, but when we measure outcomes of behavior, we see distinctive and useful patterns. And when we use those patterns to improve fighter performance or road safety, the principle of Regression to the Mean is important to remember.

  • @studyonly9857
    @studyonly98572 жыл бұрын

    I love you bro!!!!!! Just keep making interesting stuff!

  • @azazaelmaher6468
    @azazaelmaher6468 Жыл бұрын

    i wished you also heavily emphasied on the skill and luck factor too. great video.

  • @wikimon
    @wikimon10 жыл бұрын

    both positive and negative feedback work. it's not a matter of which is better, they BOTH should be used for maximum effect. punishing failure in addition to rewarding success provides a better gain than simply rewarding alone

  • @santiagoacosta777

    @santiagoacosta777

    10 жыл бұрын

    "punishing failure in addition to rewarding success provides a better gain than simply rewarding alone" got any data to back that up?

  • @miinyoo
    @miinyoo10 жыл бұрын

    Negative feedback encourages strength and fortitude. Positive feedback encourages compassion and acceptance. Both are necessary in education. The externalities are totally irrelevant in aggregate preferably in a controlled study for which I'm sure there is ample referential evidence. But where do you draw the line? It depends on both the pupil and the challenge at hand, directed or not. It is up to the mentor to be the fountain of wisdom, not the pupil. That has quite a few variables of personality associated with it, but over time and many observations it is largely consistent through many studies. Interdependence is not an alien result. Self education is very tricky, however, in this respect because they must rely on their material to be the mentor in both respects. They must be able to scold themselves and reward. It can happen but it is a very wary and uncertain road since there is hardly measurable a developing of a bonding and trust throughout the process other than in the knowledge itself and the reaction from the outside world. I'm curious of your opinion on this, Mr. Muller. I am sure some of your readers can provide their insight too since they have myriad scenarios to offer to the conversation.

  • @shrikanyamshet
    @shrikanyamshet2 жыл бұрын

    I never knew I needed this. Thank you

  • @kathybrocato5148
    @kathybrocato514823 күн бұрын

    IMO, I believe that some of the effects that you are assigning to chance are actually due to not considering how individuals are motivated. Here's how I would conduct the pilot experiment based on info in the video and assuming sufficient pilots were available to be part of the trial(s): 1) Establish objective criteria for success/competence if not available, and measure each pilot before the trial begins. 2) Administer personality tests to determine the extent to which pilots are motivated by external feedback--either positive or negative. 3) Develop the statistical plan including group comparisons before the trial begins. I would propose assigning pilots randomly to 6 groups (more or less motivated by external feedback) and then randomly assigned to positive, negative or neutral feedback (either the instructor delivers results without emotion or pilots are just given their results by computer with no positive or negative feedback). Conduct the trial, measure improvements, analyze and then determine if changes are needed for subsequent trials.

  • @zacharycarolus7385
    @zacharycarolus73859 жыл бұрын

    This video literally just made my day. I've been struggling with depression a lot lately and it just makes me feel like things will always average out to be better. Like I'm getting all the bad days out of the way now, so I can live a happier life later, ya know?

  • @giampaolomannucci8281

    @giampaolomannucci8281

    4 жыл бұрын

    So, 4 years later, did it work that way or what?

  • @windowsxseven

    @windowsxseven

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@giampaolomannucci8281 unfortunately Zachary has passed away a few months ago

  • @giampaolomannucci8281

    @giampaolomannucci8281

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@windowsxseven How do you know? Seems like he updated one of his playlists a couple days ago

  • @fakjbf
    @fakjbf10 жыл бұрын

    The difference between Regression to the Mean and the Gambler's Fallacy is sample size. In GF, it's only one random event, so the probability isn't changed between the past and present. But in RM, it's a collection of random events. So while one event isn't dependent on it's past, it IS dependent on the average performance of the present, because the probability will be that it is in the middle, regardless of where it was before.

  • @josephsvideos8156
    @josephsvideos81562 жыл бұрын

    Here's a thought from the webcomic prequel: You find a four-leaf clover, this increases your chance of finding another four leaf clover, which increases the chances of you finding another, and another, and eventually you build up so much luck that the only clovers you can find are four leaf clovers.

  • @joaobraganca8509
    @joaobraganca85092 жыл бұрын

    Good video, I learned something. In real life, like the fighter pilots or team players, it seems that constructive criticism is key to improve skills. Highlighting good behavior can be a buffer for the constructive criticism "You did this very well, but you need improvement in . . . "

  • @ArtemSmaznov
    @ArtemSmaznov10 жыл бұрын

    It would have been so much better if everyone understood this. I've been thinking about this for a while and tried to explain it my acquaintances, but you can't change that in a day. Thank you for making the first steps to bringing that understanding to the majorities. A lot of people think that a 50% change of getting head or tails means that if you flip a coin 100 times it would result in 50 heads and 50 tails, but in practice that is not exactly true. There is even a small change that all of 100 flips it will result in only one of conditions. As they say - there is a big lie, a small lie and statistics. And true and at the same tame false this statement is.

  • @yonyosk
    @yonyosk10 жыл бұрын

    As an IDF former fighter I'd propose a different reason for the success in negative feedback. The fighter jet recruits have a very hard competition which determine who will stay in the program and who will be kicked out. Their for they are looking to improve their flight technique and prefect it. Additionally positive feedback may encourage them to do better, but they won't know what they need to improve either. And last but not least, the army system works completely different then any other system. You can not make a soldier out of a civilian only by positive feedback, you have to have negative feedback. For those reasons and more the ground for comparing the army and any other system is very small. Thou I do agree with your call for positive feedback, it simply differs from the army system.

  • @sriharshacv7760
    @sriharshacv77603 жыл бұрын

    Such an insightful video. Saved it.

  • @donwolfkonecny6727
    @donwolfkonecny67273 жыл бұрын

    I love the thumbnail because the time duration partially covers the text such that it reads "Regression To The ME"!!!

  • @dannyduchamp
    @dannyduchamp10 жыл бұрын

    Brilliant video. I felt like just liking wasn't enough so I'm commenting that I like it as well.

  • @veritasium

    @veritasium

    10 жыл бұрын

    thanks man!

  • @notjustin2167
    @notjustin21675 жыл бұрын

    This is a fantastic video...I know I'm late to the part here, but keep up the good work!

  • @michaelmiller5566
    @michaelmiller55662 жыл бұрын

    Awesome video and great book. Read it in 2017

  • @RayDrouillard
    @RayDrouillard3 жыл бұрын

    My cousin and I used to play a lot of backgammon, which has elements of luck and skill. We were evenly matched, having pretty much taught each other the strategy that we used. We started keeping track of our scores, including the use of the doubling cube. The results swung rather widely, with one of us being well in the lead one week, and the other being well in the lead another day. But neither of us ever got a consistent lead.

  • @TransparentLabyrinth
    @TransparentLabyrinth10 жыл бұрын

    Something was bugging me about the logic of this video and it just hit me what it is. (Bear with me - this is a monster of a "comment.") Assuming that you're right with your standardized test example, it makes sense that if - for instance - you get 100/100 on a test, and then you retake it, chances are (speaking in terms of probability) you're going to get less than 100/100 the next time. This works for quantifiable ceilings (and floors - such as 0/100) because the inherent belief is that you can do no better than 100/100 and no worse than 0/100. But if we delve into more subjective examples, where the ceilings and floors are highly arbitrary and ill-defined (such as acting) the logic of it becomes increasingly psychological. Matthew McConaughey, for example, won an Oscar this year. Imagine if he were to say "that was the peak of my performing ability" (the acting equivalent of a perfect score - 100/100). Using the logic from before, that would mean that he's likely to do a somewhat worse job in his next big performance. However, the real McConaughey said that his hero is himself in 10 years. What this means is that there's an older, all-around-better version of himself that he believes he can always reach. In other words, he doesn't believe that there is a ceiling for his abilities. So the "ceiling" logic of his next performance being worst than his last may not actually apply because he doesn't believe it was his best possible performance. I think this psychological distinction is important to note because standardized testing internalizes this idea that you have a floor and ceiling to your abilities, and you can't stretch above or below those areas, which is incredibly limiting to believe! And if you apply the logic of your video here to a ceiling that you believe you have, then it makes sense why some people fail before they even get started: They don't believe that they can grow beyond a certain point. It also adds some weight to the motivational tough-coach routine, like the techniques used in the movie "Miracle." The coach provided some harsh feedback and some kind feedback, but that ultimately wasn't the point. The point was that he wanted them to believe that they could get better. And better. And better. And he insisted that he knew they had more ability in them than what they were offering. In short, he broke their limiting, psychological ceiling.

  • @idong1224

    @idong1224

    10 жыл бұрын

    wow, you just blew my mind. Thanks.

  • @bryanmitchell6075

    @bryanmitchell6075

    10 жыл бұрын

    In line with your thinking, I feel that much of my success has come from not setting limits on my own capabilities. I do not always have the ability to do something, but I believe I have the capability to acquire that ability if I desire to. "That sounds hard" and "I could never do that" are not thoughts I entertain. I think I've traced this thought process back to a single moment of realization. When I was in high school (went to a computer science school), a friend of mine said to me, "You know, as programmers, we're just not creative people." I didn't disagree, but on the inside I rejected that idea completely. Later that year I went and got an internship as a graphic designer. I learned how to use illustrator and photoshop. I learned how to be "creative." I majored in Computer Science and Film. I can program, draw, animate, write, film. Every hobby, skill or talent I've acquired crosses over and lends itself to every other area. The end result is that I am capable of developing games entirely on my own. Better still, when working in teams I have an understanding of the work that each element of a game requires and I understand how to fit everything together cohesively on a project because I've done those jobs. The idea that a programmer and artist cannot do both well because it requires two different types of minds is something I reject. I truly believe this comes down to personal philosophy. All it takes is refusing to set those limits for yourself. Anytime I've needed to do something, I've opted to learn how to do it. On the other side of the coin, I think there's a lot of positive feelings to take away from this video. I was not familiar with regression to the mean before watching this video. I am happy that I did. As a very serious 10-pin bowler, I have the occasional 250+ game. When I bowl in the 170s after that I feel like I might be getting worse. That I'm not improving. I think having a conscious awareness of regression of the mean may eliminate those feelings. I'll have bad games and I'll have good games, but you can't measure the highs and lows relative to each other the way that I've been doing. So I thank them for this video, and I also thank you for your thoughtful comment.

  • @TransparentLabyrinth

    @TransparentLabyrinth

    10 жыл бұрын

    Idong Itauma Happy to. Blew my mind too when it occurred to me.

  • @TransparentLabyrinth

    @TransparentLabyrinth

    10 жыл бұрын

    Bryan Mitchell Thanks for sharing your experience. I agree with you that not setting limits greatly changes what you can and can't learn. I think people who have disabilities and learn to work around them are a great example; they could opt for saying they're crippled and avoid doing most things, but instead they often push past the hardships and figure out ways to complete the tasks they want to get done.

  • @opus5770

    @opus5770

    10 жыл бұрын

    Bryan Mitchell Thanks for sharing -- I'm really impressed with what you've accomplished! Your comment on bowling scores reminded me of what my music teacher told me about performing. He basically said that you have good performances (like a 250+ bowling score) and bad ones (in the 170s), but whatever happens, every guitarist has a "bracket." Brackets have both a range and a central tendency. For example, if you rated someone's performance on a scale from 1-100, the very best guitarists will almost always hit 95-100; small range (consistent) at the top of what is possible. Lesser-skilled performers might range from 70-90; larger range (less consistent, having more to do with luck) at a lower over all level of skill. And even good students shouldn't be surprised to range from 40-80, until they learn to hone their craft.

  • @CorvaireWind
    @CorvaireWind10 жыл бұрын

    Both positive and negative feedback can be subject to the person who is receiving based on environment, history, lesson, application, outcome & desired results. In other words, both forms can be beneficial as long as the homework is done on the above criteria prior to lesson plan.

  • @pedro-ue9iv
    @pedro-ue9iv2 жыл бұрын

    JESUS I LOVE YOUR CHANNEL YOU ARE SO DAMN GOOD I GET IMPRESSED EVERY TIME OMG

  • @isabellecoleman2692
    @isabellecoleman26923 жыл бұрын

    This is a great principal for simply statistical outcomes like the coin toss but doesn't work with human performance. We consciously and subconsciously perform better at physical tasks simply by repeating them in spite of whether we fail, succeed, or simply improve.

  • @benmorris1953
    @benmorris19538 жыл бұрын

    take a shot everytime he says feedback

  • @sammyboyth453

    @sammyboyth453

    8 жыл бұрын

    I'm not 21...

  • @wahngott4711

    @wahngott4711

    7 жыл бұрын

    +Sam Blough Poor american...

  • @sammyboyth453

    @sammyboyth453

    7 жыл бұрын

    Wahngott Or 19

  • @Heligoland360

    @Heligoland360

    7 жыл бұрын

    +Sam Blough 18*

  • @suwinkhamchaiwong8382

    @suwinkhamchaiwong8382

    6 жыл бұрын

    Duke Of Spook Don’t.

  • @UltraWindow
    @UltraWindow10 жыл бұрын

    when i had my last math course in school, i failed every test before the exam, if i failed the exam i would fail the course. but being me i was not affected by my previous preformance and stayed calm and positive during the exam. in the end i got better results than my friends who studied (i didnt study at all which explains how i failed those tests). in conclusion, preformance depends on how well you handle each situation, or atleast in my case.

  • @aymanbenbaha
    @aymanbenbaha7 ай бұрын

    Veritasium your videos are ridiculously good to watch. It’s crazy to think this was published 9 years ago, when life was simple.

  • @sashasmusic2463
    @sashasmusic24632 жыл бұрын

    I was just thinking about this today. Positive feedback reactions may be inspiring for learning, but i think trusting someone to do a task will really boost their confidence and ability to perform.

  • @touristguy87

    @touristguy87

    2 жыл бұрын

    I think that's an interesting opinion but I doubt that it's universally true.

  • @lokynokey4822
    @lokynokey482210 жыл бұрын

    That's it, schools should stop punishing for bad performance but only give awards for good performance. If you keep punishing people then they will do anything not to get punished but they won't care about performing more than just the minimum because the not getting punished is the focus. If you add reward together with punishment then there will be something to strive for but not getting punished is still the main focus which interrupts with the idea of striving for the reward . If you have only rewards then people don't have to worry about being punished and because someone get's more rewards than others competition emerges. The best thing is that no punishment means freedom to choose how to compete and which rewards should the person be going for.

  • @localatticus4483
    @localatticus44838 жыл бұрын

    For me, negative feedback can really demoralize me over time. For the first or second times, it can make me feel like I'm proving them wrong and I do better, but after too long I just shut down and say "I don't need to please this person" and end up not wanting to do anything they say. On the other hand, sometimes with positive feedback I know I'll have to up my game to impress again, so I'll try to do so. Of course eventually that becomes difficult and I level off again to reestablish myself before trying again. Both forms of feedback are beneficial for me in small amounts. Too much negative and I'm less likely to complete the task in the first place, too much positive and I know I can't always do better.

  • @mikeyo1234

    @mikeyo1234

    4 жыл бұрын

    Truly successful people don't give care about feedback. They will do their best no matter what. Hard to achieve that confidence though. Set your own goals and congratulate yourself. People who rely on other's opinions are screwed.

  • @bigben8129

    @bigben8129

    4 жыл бұрын

    @@mikeyo1234 That's too oversimplified buddy. It is dependent on your expertise what kind of feedback you prefer to a certain task, together with your confidence. So basically the felt confidence to successfully deal with something is the important thing. People low in expertise and confidence obv need positive feedback to reassure them they are doing fine. But people with very high expertise are different. They (usually) really happy when they get constructive negative feedback because it rarely happens when you are super good in something and this gives you a chance to even get better. So when expertise increases in people there comes a turning point where they actually prefer negative feedback. Still, surely the negative feedback should be phrased nicely like "I think you should try dadada "

  • @koralee8135

    @koralee8135

    4 жыл бұрын

    I work well with negative feedback personally.

  • @jdgower1
    @jdgower13 жыл бұрын

    I take a tact with raising my kids that, outside of some especially egregious errors they make or undeniably commendable successes they have, I remain pretty much neutral in our "post-event analysis" and let them decide how negative or positive the lesson will be. Anytime one of my kids screwed up, I would first make sure they were OK, and then make sure they realized what the mistake was, but then I would simply ask them, "What did you learn from this?" - and then I won't let them off the hook of answering that question until they answer it. The best teachers I ever had didn't try to drill knowledge into my head - they just forced me to teach myself in ways that are best suited to how I tend to learn. And they stuck with that tact as long as they saw it was working with me. That's what I did with my kids, and luckily for me, it has worked out very well.

  • @gray_mara

    @gray_mara

    Жыл бұрын

    That seems incredibly sad. I feel sorry that your kids have to work so hard to impress you. There is something pitiable in learning from a young age that the people who should love us most are not much moved by us.

  • @jdgower1

    @jdgower1

    Жыл бұрын

    @@gray_mara You must have meant to put that reply on another comment. If you think teaching a kid to learn from their mistakes is 'pitiable', then we come from different worlds.

  • @NSAhitLIST
    @NSAhitLIST Жыл бұрын

    I have experienced this a lot with my video games, if someone praises me i feel like i can do anything and it's now expected of me, but when i do wrong and someone calls me out i now feel the need to protect my pride by proving them wrong and doing what they thought i couldn't.