How To Calculate Intrinsic Value (AMZN Stock Example + Excel Template)

Many wonder what is intrinsic value or how to calculate intrinsic value. Well, this video will define intrinsic value, explain the key factors you need to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock, give you a great intrinsic value excel template you can use and discuss it all on a Amazon stock intrinsic value calculation.
0:00 Intrinsic Value
0:45 Intrinsic Value Definition
1:27 Key Elements
1:58 Earnings
5:38 Growth
6:24 Certainty
7:41 Discount Rate
9:08 Intrinsic Value Formula
10:13 AMZN Stock Intrinsic Value
Intrinsic value is defined as the number that you get if you can predict all the cash the business can give you between now and judgement day, discounted at a proper discount rate. This is how Warren Buffett put it in his speech: • Warren Buffett | Intri...
The formula to calculate intrinsic value is the discounted present value of future cash flows.
To apply the intrinsic value formula you need to understand its main components which are the cash flows or earnings, the future growth rate, the probability and the discount rate.
Here is the intrinsic value formula:
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This intrinsic value calculation video is part of my free stock market investing course - check it out for more content like this:
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#intrinsicvalue #stocks #warrenbuffett

Пікірлер: 836

  • @matthewng9322
    @matthewng93222 жыл бұрын

    Been following you for a year now and I have to say that the content you provide is hands down the best. Thanks Sven!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    2 жыл бұрын

    thank, really nice to hear!

  • @beshoymeleka34
    @beshoymeleka343 жыл бұрын

    Hi Sven, after trying to learn about the stock market for a year now, I have to say you are providing a great value and information. Greatly appreciated :)

  • @mcthomps
    @mcthomps3 жыл бұрын

    In case it helps anyone else, I copied the spreadsheet to google sheets and then used the googlefiance operations =googlefinance(A4, "eps") where A4 is the ticker symbol. I then found a list of the russel 1000 and copied it into column A. I used Sven's operations and then had it compare the price today =googlefinance(A4, "price") with the green cell in Sven's spreadsheet (present value sum) then made another column where it divides that cell by the price today. You can do conditional formating in google sheets (under the format tab) and make it color the cell green if it is over 100%. Googlesheets will update each time you open it and run the operations, then you can scroll through and see if anything is showing up as green.

  • @sekroz896

    @sekroz896

    2 жыл бұрын

    Could you give a link to download this sheet? I would greatly appreciate it

  • @dsmudger

    @dsmudger

    2 жыл бұрын

    Does this mean you have (/had) to make your own estimates for growth rates and terminal multiple, each times three, for the best, worst and normal cases, for each of those 1000 companies? Or did you (/can-one), do that in a formulaic way? Like taking a mean or median of past growth rates, and then x0.75/x1.5.. Not sure off the top of my head how one might estimate terminal multiple, in a similar way however.

  • @mrsdbrc
    @mrsdbrc3 жыл бұрын

    For this video I have been waiting 2.5 years druze moj... I have put mean while my own spreadsheet... I can send it to you...

  • @Turtl3Velocity
    @Turtl3Velocity3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for your content! You've provided a great introduction for your audience to get more pragmatic instead of just studying the markets and valuation methods. I would really appriciate more content like this, as seeing how you approach your research within Excel, would add huge value to my own investment analysis. I am at a stage where I actively read 10Ks and 10Qs to understand the company, its opportunities and its risks but am unsure how to take my research to the next level and begin modelling and documenting the research myself. I do however i appreciate this may be proprietary research or outside the scope of your audience. Thanks again Sven, and Merry Christmas!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    thanks, will focus more on this as I am getting bored of just entertainment.

  • @45138449
    @45138449 Жыл бұрын

    Amazing video, very helpful and useful!!! Thank you very very much!!!!!!!!!!!

  • @jaimelopez3101
    @jaimelopez31013 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the value you add to this world.

  • @GusEmprende
    @GusEmprende3 жыл бұрын

    This is the best value investing channel. I work as an analyst for a Investment Bank and get value here

  • @snirzelig
    @snirzelig3 жыл бұрын

    Great video. Thank you !

  • @ernestoperez5756
    @ernestoperez57568 ай бұрын

    Fantastic video introducing the aspects and factors of a DCF model. I believe the discount rate is the most challenging aspect of a DCF model. Cost of equity or WACC may be used if you are doing FCFE or FCFF. May you do a video about discount rates and real methods used in the industry and by some of the best valuation thinkers out there?

  • @Investobooks
    @InvestobooksАй бұрын

    Thanks for all the value delivered over the years, for sure hard work to prepair , really helpful!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    Ай бұрын

    Glad it was helpful!

  • @hanoielectronix
    @hanoielectronix3 жыл бұрын

    Another great video Sven. Could You please explain how to calculate value for stock which also pays dividend using Your excel spreedsheet ?

  • @saidkms8710
    @saidkms87103 жыл бұрын

    Hey Sven! Thanks for the video, the file and the efforts!! One of the best value investing videos I have seen!! I have a question regarding the calculation file. I am looking into the file and I see you multiply year2029 earning by PE. I was expecting 2030 to be multiplied by PE as we are discounting for 10 years. Can you explain why? Also I put the exact same values in the spreadsheet (you made available) and noticed cell N 7 has a different value than the video maybe you adjusted but can you tell me if any tweeks are needed? I am welcoming everybody's input on this

  • @importedmusic
    @importedmusic2 жыл бұрын

    Great video as always thanks. When estimating future growth rates, just wondering why we use the % change in revenue as opposed to % net change in revenue, after all isn't EPS calculated using the net change? Thanks.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    2 жыл бұрын

    ???

  • @gorkemorhon5600
    @gorkemorhon56003 жыл бұрын

    Thanks you! It is a great video!!!

  • @MrGrindub
    @MrGrindub3 жыл бұрын

    This is crazy value you're giving here, thank you. Merry Christmas

  • @a1e2r3
    @a1e2r33 жыл бұрын

    One of your best Vedios, thanks 👌🏻

  • @marcoaraujo4771
    @marcoaraujo47713 жыл бұрын

    You just moved your channel a notch above the competition.

  • @engage3085
    @engage30853 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Sven! In a crazy market like this it's great to get a tool to help ground investment decisions. Keep up the excellent work!

  • @Politik-mit-Kopf
    @Politik-mit-Kopf3 жыл бұрын

    Good content and thanks for the template!

  • @pieterdaems7030
    @pieterdaems7030 Жыл бұрын

    love all your videos!! But a question why do you use EPS and not FCF? I thought companies could bend it a little ?

  • @jomii9
    @jomii93 жыл бұрын

    This video has a tremendous intrinsic value! Thank you for all your work, it's really teaching me how to explore the world of investing.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    My pleasure!

  • @prashunpcchakraborty70
    @prashunpcchakraborty703 жыл бұрын

    Very cool stuff Sven can't wait to play around with the template provided. Kudos.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Have fun!

  • @andreventinhas5507
    @andreventinhas55073 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Steve...god bless you

  • @toniomiklo2406
    @toniomiklo24062 жыл бұрын

    Seems excellent. Thank you. I subscribed.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for the sub!

  • @eduardocoello1909
    @eduardocoello19092 жыл бұрын

    thank you for the template and the great explanation.. how do you come up with the terminal multiple??

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    2 жыл бұрын

    again an estimation, the lower the better!

  • @heisenberg7153
    @heisenberg71532 жыл бұрын

    Amazing video 🔥🔥 Very well explained

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    2 жыл бұрын

    Thank you 🙌

  • @franckarauld3536
    @franckarauld35363 жыл бұрын

    This is free. Thank You g 🙌🏿

  • @Reinindiereuse
    @Reinindiereuse3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much for this, very nice introduction into the topic.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Glad it was helpful!

  • @MannedSoldier
    @MannedSoldier3 жыл бұрын

    Hello! Great video! Is there a significant difference between using earnings per share or free cash flow per share? Thank you in advance!

  • @cristobal666
    @cristobal6663 жыл бұрын

    this video is great!

  • @anthonygagnon7914
    @anthonygagnon79143 жыл бұрын

    OMG thanks Sven I was just reading your book and I was confused on the insintric value part and I was thinking in my head I wish he made a video on this, YES!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    :-)

  • @puremathematics8683
    @puremathematics86833 жыл бұрын

    thank you once again from malaysia

  • @scottscriticalmass
    @scottscriticalmass3 жыл бұрын

    I hope people realize and appreciate the level of education they're getting from you Sven. Cheers to you!

  • @tocaciulevente992

    @tocaciulevente992

    3 жыл бұрын

    He is one of the bests! thanks Sven again!

  • @chrisapplebach4756
    @chrisapplebach47563 жыл бұрын

    Best Channel on KZread

  • @mariodauria5426
    @mariodauria54263 жыл бұрын

    Grande Sven! Adoro quando fai le interviste con Domenico in Italiano! Contenuti da Top KZreadr!

  • @conwaytravel3224
    @conwaytravel3224 Жыл бұрын

    Great Video!!! 😀😀😀

  • @Legui1231
    @Legui12312 жыл бұрын

    Excelent work! I am really happy to have this tool Its going to help my investmente decisions.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    2 жыл бұрын

    happy to hear that!

  • @Andolini13
    @Andolini133 жыл бұрын

    Brilliant 👍! Great content Sven

  • @danielrambela7217
    @danielrambela72173 жыл бұрын

    One of the best videos !

  • @gabrielauger6343
    @gabrielauger63433 жыл бұрын

    Thank you Sven, very instructive video

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Glad it was helpful!

  • @tattooedinvestor5015
    @tattooedinvestor50153 жыл бұрын

    Great video, Sven! You provide so much value to the people that want to learn

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks - hvala!

  • @bartluca
    @bartluca2 жыл бұрын

    Grande Sven... Video di grande value...

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    2 жыл бұрын

    grazie!

  • @fergspotato162
    @fergspotato1623 жыл бұрын

    Amazing video as always! The only KZread channel i found so far with substance. Puno hvala!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    hvala!

  • @bougy126
    @bougy1263 жыл бұрын

    Very valuable 👌

  • @jdr4674
    @jdr46743 жыл бұрын

    Fantastic, thank you very much for the free calculator Sven!

  • @91vicky
    @91vicky2 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Sven, terrific video and excel template!! Had a question - I thought for discounted cash flows, you typically take "free cash flow" as the starting point. Does taking an earnings-based number like EPS (instead of free cash flow) affect the accuracy?

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    2 жыл бұрын

    I use different things depending on the company, but the results should be similar always!

  • @Thedrifter1

    @Thedrifter1

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Value-Investing What if the company is cooking? They can't cook cash flow.

  • @joepistone8922
    @joepistone89223 жыл бұрын

    Appreciate. Thanks

  • @raj1raj
    @raj1raj3 жыл бұрын

    This is super helpful!

  • @FireProductionz
    @FireProductionz3 жыл бұрын

    Ti si kralj🔥♥️

  • @hugomotacarmo8485
    @hugomotacarmo84853 жыл бұрын

    Great video Sven! Thanks for sharing. Happy Holidays 🎄

  • @emilpitschujew3018
    @emilpitschujew30183 жыл бұрын

    Awesome content. Thanks a lot Sven!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    My pleasure!

  • @swphilosophy3040
    @swphilosophy30403 жыл бұрын

    Fantastic video, Sven! Super useful spreadsheet, too!

  • @kaanerdogan3204
    @kaanerdogan32043 жыл бұрын

    Thank you! It is very useful for me.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Glad to hear that!

  • @michaldanco2848
    @michaldanco28483 жыл бұрын

    Damn this is amazing. You are doing this stuff for free. You need a patreon. Thank you for doing this for us.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    thanks

  • @pankajverma8080

    @pankajverma8080

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@Value-Investing Was that 8% your expected return on the investment??? Plz clarify

  • @teddyface4972

    @teddyface4972

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@pankajverma8080 It will be 8% annualized

  • @damianobottini2029

    @damianobottini2029

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@Value-Investing You are the best Sven

  • @SanjayChauhan-cg2zi

    @SanjayChauhan-cg2zi

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@pankajverma8080 Yes Pankaj, the Discount rate is the actual returns what the investor expects from that particular investment. Warren used to use 15% as expected returns in a business ...

  • @limi-shen5225
    @limi-shen52252 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Sven for the template. i have question about your method of calculating intrinsic value. why we need to sum up the discounted rate of each year and discounted rate of terminal value.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    2 жыл бұрын

    depends on the company, will make a new intrinsiv value template soon

  • @Value-Investing
    @Value-Investing3 жыл бұрын

    Here is the intrinsic value excel template - have fun and you can immediately use it as you watch the video: svencarlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/INTRINSIC-VALUE-CALCULATION-FORMULA-SVEN-CARLIN-2.xlsx

  • @peckess

    @peckess

    3 жыл бұрын

    thanks very much

  • @Erikkii

    @Erikkii

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks you so much for this. I earlier rested my efforts to make my own spreadsheet a while ago.

  • @realgest5369

    @realgest5369

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you very much Sven. Do you have something similar to evaluate junior gold mining companies/ Exploration gold companies? It could be intresting a video about that type of valuation.

  • @balazszentai3364

    @balazszentai3364

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much, Sven. I've been following your channel for two weeks and I I really appreciate your work. This is the best value investing KZread channel, especially for non-native English speaker viewers. Greetings from Hungary :)

  • @HaiTran-fi1uc

    @HaiTran-fi1uc

    3 жыл бұрын

    Hi Sven spreadsheet is in EUR, is this same for dollars as well or do we have to convert it from the intrinsic value number we get.

  • @vickyshort5682
    @vickyshort56823 жыл бұрын

    I actually listened to info about your course. Maybe first finance/stock youtuber that has made me interested

  • @diegohungriabarboza2270
    @diegohungriabarboza22703 жыл бұрын

    Great video!!!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    thanks!

  • @lukasdi3623
    @lukasdi36233 жыл бұрын

    awesome video!! thanks sven

  • @PUGSLTD
    @PUGSLTD3 жыл бұрын

    You are a genius thank you for sharing so many useful information

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Glad it was helpful!

  • @jonathankr
    @jonathankr3 жыл бұрын

    Excellent video.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you very much!

  • @kmusiclover
    @kmusiclover3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you very much ! very detailed.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Glad it was helpful!

  • @Lucianoprx
    @Lucianoprx3 жыл бұрын

    Sven, what do you think about the Dhandho Investor formula? The only difference is in the terminal value’s multiplication factor: in this formula, they put 15 for a good business and 10 for a bad/not-so-good business

  • @conlethkennedy2713
    @conlethkennedy27133 жыл бұрын

    Hi Sven great news I got the promotion! Thanks for this video it was incredibly useful! Will start your free course over my time off!

  • @taygakaan
    @taygakaan3 жыл бұрын

    Love ur channel ! Great work, learning so much, thank you !

  • @alessandrochiacchiaretta8142
    @alessandrochiacchiaretta81423 жыл бұрын

    Amazing video Sven Thank you!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you too!

  • @ismaisma4944
    @ismaisma49442 жыл бұрын

    nice video ,thanks for your wonderful work sir, I have a question though regarding the intrinsic value calculator ,is the final intrinsic value in euros? dollars coz it says euros but input is in dollars.thanks

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    2 жыл бұрын

    depends on the input :-)

  • @randomdre9537
    @randomdre95373 жыл бұрын

    I like how you point and say Warren

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    hehe!

  • @Local.Motion
    @Local.Motion3 жыл бұрын

    Must have read my mind, was researching AMZN this morning.

  • @Bogdanbmm
    @Bogdanbmm2 жыл бұрын

    Great stuff Sven as always, by chance do you have a video on how to value growth/unprofitable companies yet ? that would help a lot and many people would like it also I think

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    2 жыл бұрын

    one day those should be profitable - so it is about potential earnings and the chance of hitting those

  • @Bogdanbmm

    @Bogdanbmm

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@Value-Investing got it, fair and square ... just wondering how can one put that into an excel and do some basic modelling with it ? :P that would be very nice :)

  • @BartlomiejSzymanski
    @BartlomiejSzymanski3 жыл бұрын

    Master , thank You

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    happy to help!

  • @BRTAMK
    @BRTAMK4 ай бұрын

    Thanks a lot

  • @CraigTaggart
    @CraigTaggart11 ай бұрын

    Sven great analysis! how do I get this model can somebody share this with me on the chat. Thanks Craig

  • @herotiramisu
    @herotiramisu3 жыл бұрын

    Someone who is actually specialized in the field sharing knowledge to the green.... he is for real !

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    thanks!

  • @glenngiesberts1118
    @glenngiesberts11183 жыл бұрын

    Hey Sven, if I put the same numbers out of the Amazon sheet in the input cells in the empty sheet (2) in your latest excel file I get a different stock price. What’s the difference on these two sheets? Is the empty sheet the one to use?

  • @wilwilson8146
    @wilwilson81463 жыл бұрын

    Thank you sir.

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Happy to hear that!

  • @joshe7
    @joshe73 жыл бұрын

    Thnk you Sven!!

  • @joaquimricomartinez3711
    @joaquimricomartinez37113 жыл бұрын

    Sven your material is fantastic. I am a big fan of your KZread channel and a few weeks ago I bought your book "Modern Value Investing" and I have loved it as well. Thank you for all the value you provide us!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks! Great to hear!

  • @waynetang2918
    @waynetang29183 жыл бұрын

    Hi Sven, can you explain why you choose net income instead of free cash flow and why sometimes you delete the present value of cash flow / earning for the 10 year period and only leave with present value of terminal value? Thanks!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    you have to think about the company, what it is doing with the money and how it rewards you!

  • @phongthienphihong7649
    @phongthienphihong76493 жыл бұрын

    Great content

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks!

  • @overnightgrowth
    @overnightgrowth3 жыл бұрын

    Exactly what I’ve been looking for lately. Getting more into the actual numbers of understanding value investing.

  • @SamuelRobitaille
    @SamuelRobitaille3 жыл бұрын

    Sven You are too good!

  • @daviddelacruzmorales5102
    @daviddelacruzmorales51023 жыл бұрын

    Really useful, thanks a lot!!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Glad it was helpful!

  • @oscarmagolo
    @oscarmagolo3 жыл бұрын

    Nail It Again Sven, you have been working like crazy. Tks.

  • @tamershahin2172
    @tamershahin21723 жыл бұрын

    Amazing video Sven

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks!

  • @enricmiralles8542
    @enricmiralles85423 жыл бұрын

    Thanks a lot for the video amazing!!!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Glad you liked it!

  • @peterpires
    @peterpires3 жыл бұрын

    Merry Christmas Sven! Thanks for sharing!

  • @Tyler-tl3nj
    @Tyler-tl3nj3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for making this. It's going to help a lot of people. Great video

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    happy to hear that

  • @aprqqq
    @aprqqq3 жыл бұрын

    People have been waiting for this video for a years :)

  • @Deskzor
    @Deskzor3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you very very much Sven. Best Christmas gift! This template is amazing!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    happy to hear that!

  • @mahmoudalsaif6841
    @mahmoudalsaif68413 жыл бұрын

    Brilliant! I’ve heard a lot about DCF and heard Buffett’s definition many times but never really understood it until now. Thanks Sven!

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Glad it was helpful!

  • @KzLollapalooza
    @KzLollapalooza3 жыл бұрын

    Good day Sven! Thank you for the video!

  • @bbalintka
    @bbalintka3 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for the great value you provided!

  • @abhisheknandi7932
    @abhisheknandi79323 жыл бұрын

    also, if time permits, can you show us techniques for valuing a company with decreasing(GM) or negative cashflow?

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    same, you estimate the value of the cash flows-)

  • @jang203
    @jang2033 жыл бұрын

    Thank u .

  • @heloworld1000
    @heloworld1000 Жыл бұрын

    Thank you very much. Do you think that I should calculate the discount rate a little bit higher than 8% in such times like nowadays with high interest rate? somewhat formula of: discount rate= 8%+(interest Rate) Hence today my discount rate will be 13%? (8%+5% interest rate)

  • @JackieLeeChoonYau
    @JackieLeeChoonYau3 жыл бұрын

    super like and thumbs up. thanks Sven

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    Many thanks!

  • @hetarthkamdar8707
    @hetarthkamdar87073 жыл бұрын

    Thank you Sven. This is great.

  • @hugomeza2910
    @hugomeza29103 жыл бұрын

    Great video! I like it! I will be ordering your book soon. 👍 Did you use free cash flow in your spread sheet or net earnings? Do you personally always use 8% discount rate?

  • @Value-Investing

    @Value-Investing

    3 жыл бұрын

    depends on the company - I personally use 10% or even higher:-)

  • @hugomeza2910

    @hugomeza2910

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@Value-Investing what’s your opinion on Phil Town on always a 15% discount rate?