The UK suffered exactly the same thing with the discovery and exploitation of North Sea oil and gas. The government gutted existing industries of coal, steel, fishing and neglected others like ship building and manufacturing.

@AmazinglyAwkward

Жыл бұрын

Yep. I think the UK was also sort of isolationist, being it was a tiny island just outside mainland Europe and so we had to rely on ourselves and our communities for things, until the EU started to grow. And that’s what also led to the downfall of British seasides in the 80’s as European holidays became cheaper and more accessible. Not that I’m advocating that Brexit was a good idea, especially how it was implemented and nor am I suggesting we should’ve kept coal mines open but it is quite stark how fcked we were in the 70’s/80’s and we’re now seeing parallels in 2022 going in 2023

@pp2021

Жыл бұрын

Was a time when ships were British, the rest were boats. Manufacturing went east to China. We, the public also have a lot to answer, we want everything cheap, now, and on easy payments

@charlesdale1462

Жыл бұрын

The coal industry was destroyed out of Tory spite. Strategic energy reserves? The public couldn't give a toss.

@markblanch2905

Жыл бұрын

@@pp2021 yes, we 💩 in our own beds. We unemploy our society and fund dictators war plans

@B-A-L

Жыл бұрын

I want to know how Britain managed to totally destroy its heavy manufacturing base in less than two decades. It went from being a world leader in car, train, plane and ship building to absolutely nothing!

The Dutch Disease is not the "Norwegian Disease"... The Norwegians bought securities on foreign financial markets to offset the 'imbalance of trade,' causing the national currency to weaken and keep the country competitive for exports. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund now holds over 1 Trillion USD in assets.

@hkchan1339

Жыл бұрын

Norway is the only one smart enough to do so, all the governments who caught the Dutch disease just lost manufacturing jobs , govt massively increased public spending and faced inflation when prices for commodities dropped

@alanburke1893

Жыл бұрын

Excellent point. The bureaucrat administered Norwegian 'Future Fund' has out-performed most private equity funds in the last 30+ years. From the same North Sea reserves, the UK under Thatcher et al subsidised mass unemployment in the post-industrial North, inflated several short term property bubbles and acquired just enough military kit (aircraft carriers, nuclear subs etc.) to maintain the facade of a first tier military power. Even the vaunted NLAW system deployed in Ukraine was derived from Swedish R&D.

@hlim431

Жыл бұрын

Australia was gifted exactly what Norway had, not in oil but iron ore, coal & gas. Norway built a Trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund because Stat oil was a government owned corporation but Australia had BHP Fortescue etc… and all the taxes that John Howard received was given back as tax cuts to get him a 4th term! Australia had 30 years of China that allowed Australia to have the longest economic boom in history 3 times longer than US ever had… look where we are now? Completely squandered

@57thorns

Жыл бұрын

At the same time costs are higher, and the Krona has increased significantly in value. But the effects are much less severe than for nay other oil nation. And I believe Norway also made a conscious effort to keep domestic industry alive.

@luciferaurum

Жыл бұрын

@@57thorns The Norwegians are great at taxing their people (like all Nordic countries), but the taxes are often well-spent and they are among the most prosperous, free and happy. Point in case: The Norwegians still have much. if not increased, their profits from their natural resources' extraction. When you invest abroad, you exchange currencies for purchase of foreign financial securities; The currency exchange weakens your own (like China has done by buying US treasuries). When these assets have a return, money flows back to you, so an appreciation in that case, after a currency exchange from foreign back to your own, could be expected, depending on the choice of reinvestments abroad (snowballing your profits) or not. It wasn't unwise of them though to refrain from introducing the Euro, which has its own myriad of problems. Also, a strong currency makes imports cheap; When it occurs gradually and local industry can adapt through productivity advances (quantitative) or product innovations (qualitative), it won't pose a problem. When you combine that with profits earned in foreign economies flowing your way and leaders down-to-earth enough not to spend oil revenues like a drunken sailor on personal toys or vanity projects (I won't name names here), you have a (truly) prosperous mix! (We, the Dutch, didn't weaken our currency with purchase of foreign securities to gradually appreciate our currency: natural gas gone, money gone, Groningen earthquakes.)

Exactly what Thatcher did in the 1980s. During the 60s & 70s the Labour governments encouraged the development of North Sea Gas from 1965 and Oil from 1975. By the time Thatcher came to power the income revenues from taxation was producing new huge inflows of WEALTH. Thatcher squander that benefit by wreaking manufacturing & coal & steel production, creating UNEMPLOYMENT in MANUFACTURING during the 80s whilst substituting it for Financial Services, which failed in 2008.

Here in Scotland we have Aberdeen which is the oil capital of Europe. Me and some friends were invited to the Marshall farm trailers factory in Aberdeen for a tour. The owner told us of how hard it was to get good men as most were working in the oil industry for a far higher wage. As a result, quite a lot of his staff are not maybe the brightest and/or come from Eastern Europe. They also heavily utilise robot welders and cutters to make the most of what manpower they have.

Spain had the same problem, in the 16 century, when the influx of silver and gold into the coffers and pockets, it was cheaper to buy foreign goods from the enemy the Dutch than to grow manufacturing skills in the Spanish empire. So inflation started without control!

@randyeduo

Жыл бұрын

THIS FOOL IS JUST A WESTERN PROPAGANDIST WHO WANTS RUSSIA TO DO BAD, BTU RUSSIA IS NO LONGER ON THE WESTERN SYSTEM, IT HAS A GOLD BACKED CURRENCY

@stevenhombrados1530

Жыл бұрын

@XiKLeR The present Spanish government is the worst, Spain ever had, and for the next generations ahead, if the Spaniards do nothing.

@stevenhombrados1530

Жыл бұрын

@XiKLeR No, your right, many Spanish governments from the left to the right has had, and have, helped corrupted Latin America governments to continue to be corrupt. Thou their influence is less now, since the CCP government is taking over complete Latin American nations. Which may be worst.

@damiendeharo8135

Жыл бұрын

Yes you are wrong and ignorant.

@inconnu4961

Жыл бұрын

@XiKLeR Spain hasnt had much influence in Latin America over the last 100 yrs (that im aware of) so perhaps other nations have been a source of issues for Latin America, plus their own corruption!

As a Dutch person, Ive never heard of the phrase Dutch disease yet, very interesting. As far as I understand the concept is actually pretty simple. The discovery of a very valuable natural resource has a ripple effect through many different domestic industries. Yes, on the net level you're making more money as a country but if trends reverse you have a domestic labor force that has shifted to an ill-suited position to recover effectively to reverse a setback trend. Making your domestic economy relatively weak to negative trends.

@ls200076

Жыл бұрын

Funny Dutch people and their economy.

@teunu9806

Жыл бұрын

...resulting in an earthquake economy

@HermanWillems

Жыл бұрын

You never heard of this??? Those boomers try to keep their failing secrets hidden. Boomers have messed with Netherlands and lived on the gas bubble money as lazy beasts just spending it all without doing anything. After we found the gas our economy literally went down... lazy boomers. Never forget. They are not the people who bould up our country. Their parents did. Boomers just enjoyed a life without worries and too much money.

@roland9367

Жыл бұрын

The currency value is also a huge player here. It probably also hurt our import and export business at the time.

@dennisbakker5262

Жыл бұрын

Misschien de zwakte om de regering af te zetten om wanbeleid

I have noticed the same effect in Croatia but in their case it is the tourist industry. While working there I met waiters, who had academic degrees in economy, law and engineering. They all told me that they make more money as waiters than they do in their educated field. Of course it is quick money but it gets you hooked. You have a pretty good life style in a short period without a lot of struggling. In other Eastern European countries it is often real estate. Selling some land to a retail chain like Aldi, Lidl, Spar, Ikea, ... will make you very rich in comparison to your other country men. The "Dutch disease" is nothing else but a sudden source of easy revenue. Everything else just becomes a burden.

@wanderer2688

Жыл бұрын

Turns out Croatia and Spain have the same exact problem. A junior engineer makes less money than most people on the service sector. (I speak from experience sadly)

@thomasprogli3372

Жыл бұрын

@@wanderer2688 I once read that Spain has a lot of academics in comparison to, let us say, Germany. Could the case in Spain be that its workforce is overeducated?

@wanderer2688

Жыл бұрын

@@thomasprogli3372 It definitely plays a role. Here everyone who finishes high school is expected to continue into university, since it's paid by the government for anyone who needs financial help. Basically the entire society has the idea that any other options (trade schools or directly starting to work at 18 yo) is only an option for "dumb" kids who barely could finish high school. So yes, most of the population ends with an university degree, increasing a lot the supply of highly qualified professionals while we have killed most of the demand for them in favour of building more and more beach hotel resorts. Although my personal opinion is that it is always better to have an educated population, so the main problem is that we as a country do not invest into increasing the demand for qualified professionals.

@thomasprogli3372

Жыл бұрын

@@wanderer2688 I agree that an educated population is better than an uneducated but I think the definition, of what education is, has become distorted. Going to trade school does not mean you are not getting a good education. I personally think that anybody who wants to go to university should first have learned a trade. I also agree with the problem of focusing on tourism instead of other more profitable industries. I consider the tourism industry to be one of the least profitable and most wasteful business concepts. It has more to do with national pride.

@war-painter

Ай бұрын

Here in the USA, some of the most intellligent, educated and well mannered gentlemen I have met were managing gas stations. These were guys with multiple Engineering degrees from Iran that managed to escape with their entire families and needed a job. Hardworking! Some of them had wives who were doctors, still struggling to learn English. I can’t imagine taking the DMV test in English having just arrived from another country and passing on the first try. American citizens now btw. - Immigrants, they get the job done! 🇺🇸👍🏽🇺🇸

I love the "Dutch Disease" cause & effect" visual with narration he did because it helps those that learn better with visual aids. I think those trying to make videos explaining how the economics of an economy really works should deploy this for people that don't learn concepts as easy with just text books or lectures.

Great video, You missed a few other points... One of Russia's main manufacturing exports is the defense industry. This is important in three ways. After this war is over, Russia will need to rebuild a lot of their own equipment leaving less for export. At the same time, their equipment has performed poorly, so a lot of buyers might be switching to other countries. Finally, many of the eastern NATO members saw the dangers of having Russian equipment in their military, so will be switching over to NATO suppliers. In the end, one of Russia's only real important manufacturing businesses is going to take a huge hit. The other point is that oil prices have dropped, which adds onto the fact that Russia has to sell at $35 below market values. When oil was $120, they were selling for $85... now that oil is $90, they are selling for $60. We are basically at the point where Russia is now selling their oil cheaper than they were selling before the war and at lower production levels. Also important to note that it takes 80 days round-trip for a tanker to get to India or China compared to 8 days to get to Europe. Just in tanker costs, this amounts to an 8% reduction in profits,and that percentage will go up as oil prices decrease. Finally, you never see this mentioned because the USA doesn't want any appearance that we are fighting because of energy (again), but the fact is the Donbas holds HUGE amounts of natural gas, that haven't been used because of the continued fighting in the region. If and when Ukraine scores a decisive victory and not only frees the Donbas, but can secure it, even the hint of future gas production from there would immediately cause a drop in natural gas prices. And FWIW, I think the gas in the Donbas and the competition it poses for Russian gas is the biggest reason Russia invaded Ukraine. They don't necessarily want the gas themselves, but they want to avoid Ukraine from being able to use it.

@startingbark0356

Жыл бұрын

Their equipment hasn’t performed poorly, many destroyed “russian” vehicles are in fact ukrainian

@ingbor4768

Жыл бұрын

I read one recent analysis to the Russian hardware and missiles and most of it is made with western and Asian allies of the USA components, like chips. It is so bad the Russian industrial military complex that Russia needs the Iranian drones now.

@lubricustheslippery5028

Жыл бұрын

And there is pipelines for gas from Russia to the rest of Europe. That is not easily replaced with tankers from Saudi Arabia and other places, they need to liquefy the gas... It both means it hard for Russia to sell it somewhere else and for Europe to buy from somewhere else.

@ingbor4768

Жыл бұрын

@@lubricustheslippery5028 It seems 80% of the Russian gas exports will vanish if the Europeans stop to buy the Russian gas. Most of these fields will be shut down because the lack of storage to keep producing. The sanctions are made to kill the Kremlin regime in the medium and long term, not in the short term. And the sanctions are working.

@PeterSedesse

Жыл бұрын

@@startingbark0356 ah yes.. Russia is obviously winning the war, which is why we are talking about bombs in Moscow and Crimea today, and a parade in Kiev.

"Dutch desease" makes it sound we hare having a horrible time in the Netherlands... We are not! Thanks to minimizing the production we have a booming import and export and service economy. I just wish we could have spend the income not on fixing budget gaps but having an investment fund like Norway instead.

@raishaferreira8099

Жыл бұрын

North sea! Have petrolatum!

@francoiskeulen

Жыл бұрын

The population of The Netherlands has a very large amount of money saved in private pension funds. The relative value of Dutch pension funds is the highest in the world with more then 200% of its GDP. This will make it much easier to pay pensions to retired people in the future. www.oecd.org/daf/fin/private-pensions/Pension-Funds-in-Figures-2021.pdf

@Headhunter_212

Жыл бұрын

Norway: A GCC-level extraction economy with snow and a small population

@niio111

Жыл бұрын

Dutch disease was in the 1940s, not today. The country has had seventy years to adapt. He is saying Russia is 1945 Netherlands.

@mikitz

Жыл бұрын

@@niio111 Let's wait for it to become the 1945 Germany.

When I was young, Dutch Elm Disease was starting to spread in the area where I grew up. You just don't see elms there anymore.

@arranshirovay4064

Ай бұрын

Noticed the Ash dieback yet?

“Pipeline exports were unaffected….” That didn’t age well!😮

@bluewinterwolf

Жыл бұрын

😂 Ain't that the truth.

@NymdaFromDeepSalad

Жыл бұрын

I mean, he said "unless [the situation] changes"

@TimeSurfer206

Ай бұрын

Or all that long, either.

Interesting economic analysis. Too bad for Germany that they have been decommissioning their nuclear industry before fully weaning themselves from fossil fuels. This highlights the need for accelerated R&D for small modular reactors, including molten salt reactors. These would be inherently much safer, especially in a war zone, such as we now face in Ukraine.

@crossthread42

Жыл бұрын

Correct.. The Germans are too Cucking arrogant to think about it.. Instead They'll keep tilting at Windmills.. Watch them freeze this Winter. 🤣🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶

@Argosh

Жыл бұрын

That's nonsense. Yes, if we had turned to new nuclear reactor concepts 50 years ago we'd not be in this particular pickle. But that is spilled milk under the bridge. Right now new nuclear reactors would need about a decade before they could theoretically provide a single Watt of electricity. Other technology would be far more useful. If every house in Germany had a bunch of solar panels and a 2kWh battery that would already more than solve the issue. Why is that number significant? Well, for the past 10 years Germany had been losing a fighting retreat against small private solar installations. As per EU rules such installations should be completely free of boilerplate. In Germany they're kept in a grey area leafing to very low adoption rates.

@wirrwarr8834

Жыл бұрын

There was once a calculation according to which 1 nuclear power plant blew up every 10,000 years. So I'm already over 30,000 years old. If these idiots put all the money for the war into fusion technology, we would be carbon neutral a long time ago.

@harenterberge2632

Жыл бұрын

Too bad the previous governments slowed down the energy transition towards renewable technologies.

@raishaferreira8099

Жыл бұрын

God bless ukania family and volunteers 💙💛 salmo 37 for protection

An up to date example of the Dutch Disease is Australia. Manufacturing increasingly lost, the recent closedown of production of vehicles by GM under their local Holden brand being notable, but far from exceptional. If Australia ever found a need to gear manufacturing up again, as it had to do in the WW2 environment when access to supplies became disrupted, it may well be impossible.

@donaldmackerer9032

Жыл бұрын

That is scary.

@Almahdi-kq9ox

Жыл бұрын

Dutch disease?

@radiotelegram

Жыл бұрын

Sweden does well with high tech things like world class cars, submarines and even Gen 4 fighter jets with just 40% of Australia's population and a small fraction of Australia's resources. Aussies are as smart and hard working as anyone and it's a shame that they aren't making world beating products in the post-protection era. It just doesn't make sense to me.

@toi_techno

Жыл бұрын

Australia needs to be have itself then. Something the russians seem to find impossible to do. Like Iraq, Syria and Libya, russia needs to be reduced to a failed state in order to make it safe for it's neighbours and the world generally. The russian population living in poverty is far more preferable to their neighbours living in constant fear.

@SIG442

Жыл бұрын

Holden can become huge, but only if they focus on vehicles that would work in Australia, New Zealand, Asia and Europe. The chances in North America is pretty slim if they can get a foothold at all. They really need to focus on cars that will work for specific markets and be cheap to buy at the same time. But unfortunately that will likely never happen due to greed and not looking at the bigger picture.

An excellent explanation of the Dutch effect which I first heard of in connection with Venezuela, a "Catch 22" indeed, manufacturing goes down the tubes, the service sector increases but with less economic input, the loss of jobs means less economic activity. A horrible spiral going down.

Very informative. One item that was not foreseeable was the construction of LNG processing facilities in Germany and Europe so LNG could be shipped to Europe to completely replace Russian natural gas imports and to provide the much needed natural gas for heating. This is something that had been discussed at the time of this video, but not much progress had been made at the time. I believe the construction of facilities and infrastructure to be able to process LNG were more in the discussion stages rather than actual action.

@miramuchachito296

Жыл бұрын

? Germany has already built two facilities and their are operational. Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel. Three more are being build, the second one in Wilhelmshaven is preview to open end 2023

@TheRezro

Жыл бұрын

@@miramuchachito296 Take a note that video is from seven months ago (to I point I write this post). At the time actions of West were seen as reluctant. People didn't account that Germans were buying time and actually major moves were done in the shadow to counter the problem. In fact as of now and after giving Putin chances to pull back, West doubled down on exploiting what they described here.

@marymcardle1646

Жыл бұрын

Or that nord stream was done by the us

@ruud195

Жыл бұрын

No it cant replace it, Shortage are there in 2023 until 2033

@TheRezro

Жыл бұрын

@@ruud195 You mean money shortage? Europe has no shortages.

Problem with Iran is they have a nasty habit of inviting foreign investment, and then nationalizing the new industries leaving the foreign investors out in the cold. No rational investor is going to want to start anything big in Iran.

@seed_drill7135

Жыл бұрын

That's what happened to Gulf Oil back in '79.

@FrancescoDondi

Жыл бұрын

They should pay for the investment while it's built in free crude. If they do that, afterwards the profits are all theirs.

@DSAK55

Жыл бұрын

Meshugah

@aaronbaker2186

Жыл бұрын

yeah, and now Russia is in the same boat.

@goldenphoenix4475

Жыл бұрын

China and Russia have invested hundred of billions of dollars in Iran last two years alone signing huge deals on different sectors mainly energy, technology, and manufacturing as well as infrastructure. Iran doesn't want western investments. Iran nationalized its energy companies decades of British and USA pillaging of their resources.

The prospect of lifting sanctions on Iran may even be enough to persuade the Saudis to increase production alone.

@8kuji

Жыл бұрын

Yeah, that's true, but honestly I don't think our western leaders would do all of this, their too busy with their own agenda

@MK_ULTRA420

Жыл бұрын

Maybe, but they're not enemies.

@tonyh8510

Жыл бұрын

Saudi Arabia are just as bad when it comes to murdering people as Iran so why not trade with them. Yhe price at the pump would be half of what it is with No Need for Russian Oil.

@smeff099

Жыл бұрын

Ah yes, let's do grater business with terrorist regimes because that worked out so well in the past.

@Tribuneoftheplebs

Жыл бұрын

@@MK_ULTRA420 they are competitors for hegemony in the middle east. Just look at Yemen

I enjoyed this. Thanks. Really helped me understand this.

Absolutely on point mr. Spaniel; the discovery of the Dutch ‘milk cow’ of natural gas in Groningen and the frame of mind of Dutch politics to exploit the natural resource to its fullest potential, is indeed the very starting point of the Dutch stagflation from the 70s and 80s. Outsourcing manufacturing is still ongoing since those decades. The one sided focus of the Dutch on the service and logistical aspects of their economy, an utter degradation of the once innovative manufacturing economy it used to be. Even the focus on the so-called ‘gas roundabout,’ with the Netherlands as a logistical hub for foreign gas(read gas from the motherland) is a politically induced incentive, bordering on a Fata Morgana. Especially where the energy transition comes in full swing, it kind of reminds of the 19th century saying; ‘that when the world as we know it will be lost, it’s best to move to the Netherlands, because this nation always lags behind some 50 years.’ If the Dutch in the 60s would have chosen to invest any of their gained assets from their Groningen gas, in the propagation of renewables, it would have meant that their entire energy consumption would have become self sustainable for a long time ago. And that manufacturing wouldn’t have been diminished as it has been. Unfortunately, Dutch politics from 1945 onward, only served and serves the short term windfall instead of the long term vision. Hopefully, that will finally change. Especially in Europe there is no other country like the Netherlands which truly faces the incentive of sustainability, where it’s soils only subside further into the swampy underground it bases its existence on. The fact that there are so many Dutch voices in the comments, who vent their offense on the simple name ‘Dutch Disease,’ shows in my humble view, how very historically unaware these Dutchies are, and outright prejudiced against any criticism of the way their nation has been governed the last 60 to 70 years. Significant is that almost none of ‘m speak of the period of stagflation, which indeed was called Dutch Disease in the 70s and 80s. A short term memory span is apparently another factor in this nation’s character. Cheerio

I've always said, never depend totally on any one country for anything!!. We've made mistakes in the past due to importing cheaper manufactured goods instead of keeping up our own industry and people having to pay the higher price. 🇬🇧

@macky4074

Жыл бұрын

Like relying on Taiwan which the Chinese claim as their own for 'super' semiconductors.

@archlich4489

Жыл бұрын

Most of the things in my house read "Made In China" somewhere. I am increasingly unhappy about this. Don't quite know what I'm going to do...

@annaplot2073

Жыл бұрын

it is not about relying on one country. it is about relying on someone and spitting in their face at the face time.

@amacca2085

Жыл бұрын

@@archlich4489 what do you mean you don’t know what’s going on ? Also why you bothered

@phillup453

Жыл бұрын

I agree its time Australia gets its manufacturing back,, ans accepts China is not a friend,, its using us,, and will play the money off on us,, time we walk away regain our independence

For those who follow Jake Broe's channel, he's being citing the oil chart & declining crude prices as the harbinger of Russia's downfall.

@jahazbrooga309

Жыл бұрын

Exactly what I was thinking

@cyrilio

Жыл бұрын

He’s a national treasure. Following his channel for a while now and can highly recommend it to anyone that hasn’t heard of it yet.

@crossthread42

Жыл бұрын

NOT going to HAPPEN.. Russia has Europe & the EU,, By the Balls.. Wait when they start squeezing them this Winter.. Read some other stuff.. the EU & German's are going to freeze🤣😂 this winter. 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶

@robinbreeds9217

Жыл бұрын

I watched most if his videos as what he was saying about banking

@jenniferclark9842

Жыл бұрын

@@cyrilio Same here. I’m not sure how I came across him (probably because of another channel that I follow, Operator Starsky, who I also recommend), but I’m glad I did.

I found your video very enlightening. Thank you.

great "connecting the dots" video - thanks so much

Secondary sanctions are happening already. Most of maritime insurers are European and stated that will not insure vessels trading with ruSSia, meaning those vessels could not enter western seas.

@JLSMaytham

Жыл бұрын

a) Russia's foreign exchange is healthy enough to self-insure. b) Lloyds of London are now insuring anything that doesn't travel directly from Russia to UK by boat.

@PeterSedesse

Жыл бұрын

Yep, I invest in an oil tanker company, the same is true with oil tankers. Not only is the route to China and India much longer than going to Europe, but the ships they are contracting are charging much higher prices. Most of the oil tanker company are europe or western based and simply stopped dealing with russia because there are safer trips going from the middle east or USA to Europe.

@tom201090

Жыл бұрын

That isn't the same as a sanction. This is the insurer's saying 'No we won't' rather than a country/countries/political union saying 'No you can't.'

@smoothsailor5101

Жыл бұрын

Ships can do without "western" seas. Sea routes are in international waters and solutions are open.

@sdr24

Жыл бұрын

No rational maritime insurer is going to insure tankers sailing into a war zone - which is what the Black Sea is right now. So, unless the importing nations offer national indemnification of the tankers, no Russian oil comes out of the Black Sea. Which leaves the highly problematic ports at Leningrad and Kaliningrad in the Baltic.

I'd say Russian manufacturing is vulnerable not as much because of the Dutch disease, but for two reasons: - prevalence of imported raw materials and machines - poor business climate where having a capex-heavy enterprise is not a good idea (due to general uncertainty, rampant corruption, risks of losing your business to the siloviki, and the like)

@ironman8257

Жыл бұрын

Why are you using,, siloviki'' its just russian for force organization. You like the word?

@jmitterii2

Жыл бұрын

Sounds like my country here in the USA. LOL!

@Gamez4Evar

Жыл бұрын

@@ironman8257 in our society “siloviki” represent more of separate social stratum, than the profession itself. It’s a bit more complex than just “force organisation”

@carlthor91

Жыл бұрын

@@ironman8257 If an Oligarch wants, an Oligarch takes, force organization, no?

@ironman8257

Жыл бұрын

@@carlthor91 ok

Looks interesting all your points. Thanks

How economic knowledge can be used as an strategic weapon. Great material, congrats...

As a Dutch person i never even heard of the term Dutch disease. So thanks for teaching me about it.

@riconl2937

Жыл бұрын

So I'm not the only one that didn't know the expression.

@scalarnai

Жыл бұрын

He made it up. Anti-Russia propaganda.

@jpablo700

Жыл бұрын

In the US, "Dutch disease" is taught in pretty much any economics curriculum. Not sure how widespread the term is used elsewhere. The impetus for the term was the NL gas/energy industry boom causing the decline to domestic manufacturing, such as in this video's example on Russia. Probably some western economists coined it and thus entered book publishing. Sorry your country is stuck with the label.

@youtubewatcher2

Жыл бұрын

Dutch elm disease on the other hand .....

@clivemitchell3229

Жыл бұрын

I hadn't heard of it either but it explains in part the decline of UK manufacturing alongside the discovery of North Sea oil and gas.

Manufacturing is downplayed way too much. Never depend on other countries.

@theobserver3753

Жыл бұрын

Can you name a country that’s not dependent on other countries for anything because I can’t think of any?

@evolassunglasses4673

Жыл бұрын

@@theobserver3753 it's the scale of outsourcing that's the problem.

@jaykellett2327

Жыл бұрын

So...globalization was not such a good idea after all? Once again...the "experts" get it wrong. In a "perfect world" socialism sounds great....in the real world it sucks. When countries go to war....everyone loses. This is on you Russia!

@jorgejustin461

Жыл бұрын

@@theobserver3753 if you CAN make something yourself you should. Even if only a little so that you have the expertise to rapidly scale up production should something go wrong.

@tomlxyz

Жыл бұрын

If all manufacturers were in your own country you wouldn't be able to afford as many things as you currently do

I learned something today. Never heard of Dutch disease before.

Thank you for a very interesting analysis, particularly when you mention to Iran

The UK suffered similarly with the rise in value of sterling following the discovery of North Sea oil and gas. UK manufacturing had long suffered chronic under-investment and in 1978 as the first oil began to come ashore, Labour government minister Tony Benn set up a national investment bank/sovereign wealth fund to counter this. Tories got in in 1979 and one of their first actions was to abolish this bank/fund. Tory boom in the 80s relied on sterling rise (and oil revenues boost tax income) to enable a consumer boom and widespread overseas investment. New financial liberation - eg 1986 'Big Bang' - and widespread privatisation of state functions masked UK mfg decline, industry being seen as unnecessary, with new emphasis on service sector. Now UK oil and gas in decline - and Brexit impact too.. the future's not looking good...

@DrRusty5

Жыл бұрын

I was thinking exactly the same.

@toasteddingus6925

Жыл бұрын

What!? Why not!? Ask anyone who voted for Brexit and that dummy with the tussled hair, Britain is going to GROW! and be even more IMPORTANT! hahahahahha

"Easier to exploit fools, than to convince them they can be any other way."

@greymatter6834

Жыл бұрын

Saves money. Profits before people. The concept is to live with that social design, or self governing imposed chaos. The disease is the excuse to continue war for profit, and easily feed misinformation to grab brainwashed citizens by the cortex. Total insanity amongst said population. 🌻🌾

@Georgious

Жыл бұрын

That's pretty good, who said that?

@youtubewatcher2

Жыл бұрын

@@Georgious i think he inspired some greeks 2200 years ago to write that

@Georgious

Жыл бұрын

@@youtubewatcher2 Inspired them a whole bunch, those Greeks

@Theire1

Жыл бұрын

Many would rather be fooled than admit they were fooled . so the foolishness continues.

What a great insight in today's turmoil!

Loving the education, thanks 👍

I live in The Netherlands and I think it’s insane that we aren’t opening the Groningen gas field up again just because some small houses suffered some damage from the drilling. If we fully open it again it could supply Europe with a lot of gas.

@Maarten-Nauta

Жыл бұрын

Just wait. When winter comes we'll probably start pumping. But yes its absurd that we haven't already started. Not only could we do damage to Russia but we could profit so much in the current economy with gas that every house owner in Groningen could be bought out and we'd still have more than half of the profits haha.

@ThePepsicola1995

Жыл бұрын

The Groningers don’t mind it either, if they get properly compensated for the damages

@eustatic3832

Жыл бұрын

Otherwise you get it from Texas,where it hurts many more people on its way out

@markvanmaldegem5364

Жыл бұрын

@Mark have you ever been in groningen, its not some small houses. Its whole towns

@noirekuroraigami2270

Жыл бұрын

They stopped because they would have run out of gas in 20 yrs

This could also be applied to Australia. We import "everything" from China (cheaply) so no need for manufacturing. This is supported by export of coal, gas and mineral ores. Until we free ourselves from this situation China has us over a barrel.

@JeanLucCaptain

Жыл бұрын

let me guess... your government says China is evil for making that kind arrangment?

@fuzzblightyear145

Жыл бұрын

LEt me guess, China restricts what you can sell back to them ( apart from your natural resources of course)?

@moebrunette9304

Жыл бұрын

Understood! But fortunately for you YOU don t have a Trudeau in the circus

@godfreyberry1599

Жыл бұрын

Exactly the same situation in South Africa. We depended too much on gold which would naturally be depleted over time. The revenue was used to develop excellent & innovative self sufficient industries over the apartheid sanctions years. Notably, the oil from coal process, the arms industry and state of the art electricity supply with a myriad of support industries. Due to a completely inept and short-sighted, again race based government policy all of this aside oil from coal, motor assembly and rampant coal exports that's all South Africa has left besides being beholden to China for all our imported manufactured goods.

@nvelsen1975

Жыл бұрын

@@moebrunette9304 No, they have worse. Australia already had race laws, but they're about to become a race-based oligarchy with a commission of tribe members who get special powers, being elevated above the Australian people. Meanwhile NSW is basically a mafia state de facto run by gambling empires, where thugs will be sent to burn down your house if you criticise it and the police go 'arson? Naah mate, it's just like those smoking accidents near ammo depots in Russia'.

2:16 is why economics is so fascinating. Makes see you the world from a totally different perspective.

Thank you for explaining the "Dutch disease".

This is exactly why Norway sells oil in US dollars. (And other countries.) Stronger and stronger Norwegian krone due to energy export would kill all manufacturing and other sectors of the economy and finally the oil sector itself.

The problems are somewhat different. Oil can mostly be imported from other countries. Ports are mostly available and prices will fall eventually. Gas can also be imported in the form of LNG, which the EU currently lacks enough infrastructure for, but thanks to floating LNG terminals that should be mostly fixed soon. Basicly next winter is going to be hard, but Russias gas exports to the EU are down by 2/3 and with the currently insanly high gas price everybody is looking for alternatives. That means that only 14% of the EUs gas imports currently coming from Russia. No matter what either prices will come down or Russia has to lower supply. They are not going to make as much money with gas as they did the last couple years. Also energy is much more then just electricty.

@markhugo8270

Жыл бұрын

Our problem in the USA (as in Europe) are the Greenie Wienies who have THROTTLED our Oil, Gas, and Coal (and destroyed our Nuclear in the USA).

@trevorsomers8344

Жыл бұрын

Europe currently imports more LNG than the gas received from Russia!

@Vgallo

Жыл бұрын

Spot on, also if Russia stops their pumps in the perma frost they’ll probably never come back on, also germanys petro chemical industry is based upon Russian oil, there’s no where else they can source that amount and it provides the foundation for most of their oil based commodities- without it there is no German industry.

@bobmorane4926

Жыл бұрын

@@trevorsomers8344 It's all about competitivity. Does LNG cost 5 to 10 times more than russian gas ? Duh, how is that sustainable and it seems that most other major Gas producers like Qatar and Algeria want long term contracts and not willing to accomodate short term contracts at discount prices. And locking in long term contracts at high gas prices would be a boon for those Gas producers at the expense of Germany or Europe ...

@robertarnold1303

Жыл бұрын

@@bobmorane4926 ok I'll o

this was very interesting. well done.

Nice video, as a recommendation it isnt intuitive when you have the graphic @4:20 slide to make room for the oil and gas. The text on the bar can float underneath and the oil and gas blue can fill the bar, but the sliding action muddies the meaning for a quickly shown graphic.

I think there is a lot of panic caused by industry lobbyists. The margins are dropping and the lobbyists do what they are paid for: they flood the news and magazines with horror scenarios about empty gas tanks and cold winters, but all they actually want is public money. And between all the horror headlines, you can read a small headline that the process of filling up the reserve tanks goes absolutely fine and according to the plans. They calculated that a big household has to pay around 2000 euros more for gas and energy in the coming year. Sounds a lot, lets calculate with 1000 Euro in average per household * 40 million households (in germany) and we end up with 40 billion. The government can easily carry that. Compare it to other spendings governments around the world are doing for corona.it`s peanuts!

@Slavic_Goblin

Жыл бұрын

It's not just gas and energy that will go up. With energy going up, everything will go up. That's just how it works. What happens when everyday products go up? Your economy becomes less competitive. And that's called a snowball effect. And maybe Germany can deal with that, but EU is more than just Germany.

@eeeertoo2597

Жыл бұрын

@@Slavic_Goblin Fairly certain Germany is one of the less prepared countries to deal with it alongside poorer balkan nations. France, for example, have been using nuclear reactors for decades and have many LNG terminals.

@gerdokurt

Жыл бұрын

@@Slavic_Goblin Gas is not that relevant for electricity for households and common industrial consumersin many countries. And it can be substituted pretty good. Stopping shut down plans for existing power plants alone can cover most of it. It`s important for heating private households and extremely energy consuming industries (which often use own power plants with gas). steel, chemics etc etc. It only looks like gas is very important for electricity in europe as a whole because some countries with own gas resources (e.g italy gas makes up 40% of electricity "production"). Countries without gas resources dont use it that much. Beside of that (even if the result is the same for the people), we have to separate what is russia related and what is post corona related (skyrocketing demands, but not enough workforce is the main driver behind the global inflation). e: the thing is: take a second and think about why putin starts the gas black mailing in the summer instead of winter. surprising gas stops in winter and he could dictate europe whatever he wants. the only reason why doesnt wait for winter: he cant!

@eaman11

Жыл бұрын

@@Slavic_Goblin Only Germany has such problem with Russian gas. Italy, Spain, France and UK can do fine as long as we put a stop to price increase. Problem is speculation there, not lack of gas.

@Slavic_Goblin

Жыл бұрын

@@eaman11 Why do you think prices are going up?

Great video. Thanks for your hard work. You did a lot of research for this.

@soroosh82

Жыл бұрын

He did absolutely zero research on this and that only shows your complete lack of world affairs. Read a book first.

Seems like an update video on this topic is in order.

Very interesting and informative. I also have never heard this phrase before.

Great video, very astute and insightful. I am sure the EU leaders know full well where they are and how their monthly payments to Russia continue financing Russia's war on Ukraine, and it comes down to "how to inflict pain to your opponent while not self-inflicting so much pain that you can't fight anymore". It took a lot of courage and determination for them to even get consensus on the December and February deadlines, and only time will tell whether they will be able make good on these deadlines, do better or having to push them out. Biden did a great thing negotiating with the Arabs an increase in production and the consequent drop of oil prices, it was a necessary element in the strategy to exploit Russia's "Dutch (not the Dutch Elm!!!) disease".

@adamkohalmi7180

Жыл бұрын

Umm, yeah….I don’t think the price decrease had ANYTHING to do with Biden dude. It has more to do with action taken by the Fed Reserve, which will likely push you into full blown recession with a very rough landing. You will doubtless be ecstatic for the 5 mins that your 10% fuel decrease lasts, despite the DOUBLING since Biden took office. I applaud you for your “glass half full” attitude about fuel prices, but deride you for your delusion over your failed government.

@MrTaxiRob

Жыл бұрын

There are gonna be a lot of LNG ships leaving the US between now and then. And Biden could do a lot more about oil prices with Venezuela (and even Libya,) not just Iran if he wasn't such a dullard. It's almost like he expects to run for POTUS in 2024, but without actually DOING anything. He's covering the same old ground that Obama did, just begging the Saudis to increase production instead of making better diplomatic connections elsewhere. The Saudis need to be kept in check too.

@icosthop9998

Жыл бұрын

When I clicked underneath it I said 2 replies, I don't see them. are they there ❓️ I Wanted to read them.

@icosthop9998

Жыл бұрын

. *#Joe_Biden* help Create the high gas prices on day One, by shutting down the "Keystone Pipeline" , stopping the drilling on Federal land and putting an end to *#Fracking* . Under Donald Trump America was the number one exporter of crude oil and natural gas. With the Donald Trump fuel Initiatives still in place, we could be supplying EU with a lot of natural gas and oil and the EU Nations would not be scrambling for these Commodities for Winter use.

@adoatero5129

Жыл бұрын

@@icosthop9998 - “Under Donald Trump America was the number one exporter of crude oil and natural gas.” The strong growth of US export of petroleum products started at the end of the presidency of G. W. Bush, and continued to grow strongly during the Obama era. The growth ended in the middle of Trump’s presidency. So no, you can’t sensibly give the credit for it to Trump. In addition, the import and export of petroleum products in and out of the USA are currently about equally large. The domestic production and consumption are also equally large. To increase export the USA should increase either import or domestic production. Apparently the current initiatives aren’t enough for US production to increase. - “With the Donald Trump fuel Initiatives still in place, we could be supplying EU with a lot of natural gas and oil” The US production grew during the whole Obama administration, but stopped during the Trump administration. Something else than current initiatives (Trump’s initiatives consisted mostly of weakening environmental standards) is obviously needed. President Biden already released 5 billion barrels of oil from the emergency reserves, which helped to bring down the global price of oil and increased availability. Biden also already promised a couple of months ago to increase export of LNG (liquefied natural gas) considerably. The export will grow as soon as the receiving countries have the infrastructure ready to receive the increased amount. [Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration: Oil and petroleum products explained - Oil imports and exports]

If Russia cant sell its oil their wells will freeze up, ruining 30 years of investment. If someone decided to take out their sea to sea tanker transfers of oil, Russia would lose its transit mechanism. Its all about the tankers right now. Uninsured tankers doing illegal, sea to sea transfers. Sometimes right off the coasts of NATO countries.

@jamesgarner327

Жыл бұрын

Yep, latvia's been selling latvian blend to shell and bp, every body knows it's russian oil, but every body just pretends...

@TheKamiran85

Жыл бұрын

There are already watched several meetings between tankers in the front of Greece. They are pumping the oil to other tankers and then it's clean....

@TheKamiran85

Жыл бұрын

There are already watched several meetings between tankers in the front of Greece. They are pumping the oil to other tankers and then it's clean....

@crossthread42

Жыл бұрын

but WAIT Russia's Oil & Gas exports are hitting records! Buyers, Chindia/China/and NON-Member NATO countries..

@eeeertoo2597

Жыл бұрын

@@crossthread42 Fairly its because Europe still hasnt phased out Russian gas, not because other countries are buying it

Amazing....Thank You

i'm amazed at the rational, unpolitical, frankly scientific approach to geopolitical situations. as obvious as it is to the layman that putin must be dethroned to restore peace. the layman will always have at least a little "us or them" bias. your take on the situation re-iterates the problem to it's base components. you help us fight bias. fight racism against layman russians festering within ourselves. kudos

@mortophobegaming6454

Жыл бұрын

few weeks ago i attended a speeddate event where one ukrainian and one russian girl were in front of me. i got so conflicted about geopolitics. when i was like: their descent neither judges nor victimizes either of them. i'm here to fall in love, what the hell am i doing letting the war have anything to do with whom i like

It takes time to undo 30 years of unwise reliance on Russian energy resources. The will is there in Europe. For example, this month the UK imported zero Russian energy for the first time ever. Other European nations have their own differing Russian energy reliance issues. The desire and necessity to cut dependency is not simply support for Ukraine via sanctions. It is a final realisation that a provider such as the Russian state leaves European countries vulnerable to extortion. The governments of these counties know that this a direct threat to economic stability and their own political ability to stay in power. The driving force behind disentangling from Russian energy is an absolute domestic need. It is not simply about punishing Russia. It will happen, but will take time. It is frankly naïve in the extreme to think otherwise.

@tbr7035

Жыл бұрын

The UK uses far less Russian energy than the likes of Germany though and Germany have been lukewarm at best regarding the support of Ukraine.

@-Deena.

Жыл бұрын

@@tbr7035 Very true. I fear that Scholz is a coward!

@nvelsen1975

Жыл бұрын

@@-Deena. Meanwhile German aid to Ukraine has outstripped British aid by about a factor of 3.... The difference is the Germans just do it, and the British talk about it loudly while doing it. A lot of Russian tank crews have discovered that bushes in Ukraine suddenly begin speaking German....before spewing AT projectiles. Courtesy of the DM-22 mines that Germany supplied to Ukraine.

@-Deena.

Жыл бұрын

@@nvelsen1975 Who even mentioned Germany? Odd.

@bernardocoto8519

Ай бұрын

Unwise? What you european are realizong now is the price of relying on Americans for your security, and allowing a stupid alliance provoque the current war situation.

Good discussion. You made it easy to understand. Thanks.

Great comments. Pat

I am glad I subscribed to your channel.

Very well done explanatory video. Another aspect not touched upon here is that the Russian manufacturing sector is also very hard hit by sanctions which make getting certain essential components almost impossible.

@zackattack635

Жыл бұрын

Lol, meanwhile Germany’s industry is dying because they let the US blow up their natural gas pipeline with terrorism. Russia is beyond sanctions at this point, they have plenty of resources. Now they can partner with China and other BRICKS nations while America and Europe commit suicide. Russia won the war. Ukraine isn’t gonna be a country by next Christmas. Good riddance.

@chi-8289

Жыл бұрын

Dude, 50 years you couldn't do anything to Iran or North Korea despite being the most sanctioned countries in the world. Iran doesn't have food and North korea doesn't have much energy. But both these countries survived and are surviving well. Russia is a food surplus, energy surplus, weapons surplus country with socialist universal education and well educated population, a well developed medical system, nuclear technology from energy to fuel and military use, and one of the biggest and the most experienced militaries in the world. West may be able to break it's economy to a large extent, but it'll never be able to bring it down to its knees. This is the country which brought down the Nazi Germany while 70% of it destroyed by the Nazis, with a little help from the Americans while the British were scared and holed up and getting bombed everyday. This is a nation with immense pride and its a country used to extreme difficulties for over centuries. On the other hand, the Europeans and the Americans had only been used to luxury and comfort for the last 3 generations. Already many of my relatives living in the western countries with very high paying jobs are feeling the pinch of inflation. Some of them in the UK told me at least 6 months ago that their lives have become so difficult and the government is constantly increasing the prices of everything . On many items, prices have gone up to 300% while fuel is anywhere between 70-80% high In fact, many of the UK companies are in turn buying these refined oil from India and selling it to various countries and making huge amounts of money as middlemen while UK mercenaries are going and getting captured or killed shamefully for a few bucks. You can't even get your acts together and you expect to win this war? Already a huge amount of public disapproval and protests are seen all around Europe against this war. This is the beginning of the end of western supremacy, Biden administration has done everything possible in these short times to end the western supremacy, from handing over Hong kong to China, Afghanistan to Taliban, re ignited Israel-Palestine conflict after 7 years of peace, and started this war. Open your eyes and see what's happening. The woke liberals are destroying everything you built for the last many centuries

@geroutathat

Жыл бұрын

@@chi-8289 You don't seriously think USA or UK wants to win do you? How it works, USA says they will give 10 tanks to Ukraine, the Tanks are given from US Army stock, and the USA cuts check to have the USA army get 10 brand spanking new tanks. All the money is staying in the USA and UK. They have basically been given free unlimited resources to upgrade every section of the British and US army. They tell people "Oh its vitally important we support them", but really, they do not care, they just dont care. If they cared, they would go to war for them. This is the USA who bombed Syria over a youtube video of a crying child. But 300,000 dead in ukraine? not one missile shot by them? If the EU cared then Russia would not win, they barely survived the Germans who were fighting on several fronts, they wouldnt Survive, the EU/UK/USA/Can/AUS. They would have to nuke, they simply could not survive any other way. Ukraine will collapse, and no one really cares, thats the truth. Russia will bleed a lot more than it had to for it, and that will be it.

Dutch disease? Sorry, but as a dutchman I have a few remarks on that. One: manufacturing went down in that same period across western europe and the US as well, not just in the Netherlands. High wages and the availability of cheaper wages elsehwere (like eastern europe or SE easia) contributed to this in a much greater degree. Two: the Netherlands have always been more of a trading nation than a manufacturing nation. Calling it the Russian Disease is probably much more accurate as it has become much more dependent on selling oil/gas and other raw materials than the Netherlands have ever been.

@strange4you

Жыл бұрын

This is Amerikanen Chanel..... lot of bulshit

@JesseMartinez-cm7tl

Жыл бұрын

You tell em

@ronaldderooij1774

Жыл бұрын

Well, you may be right, but the term "Dutch disease" for this phenomenon is widely accepted in economics worldwide.

@BojanBojovic

Жыл бұрын

No need to take it personally. :)

@EhEhEhEINSTEIN

Жыл бұрын

Somebody always gotta be offended..

Thank you

Never heard of this but related to Dutch Elm Disease.👍⭐️

Russia has 4 major economic sectors: Energy, Manufacturing, Services (which includes tourism) and RESOURCE EXTRACTION. Manufacturing runs off of the energy and resource extraction (iron, wood, titanium, gold, etc.)

@stevenmoore3480

Жыл бұрын

Ahh resource extraction, that'll be the one turning RuSSia slowly but surely into a toxic wasteland.

@wecare838

Жыл бұрын

Wow op has evil plans...

Great informative video. Never thought of it this way, The Dutch Disease. Learned alot keep up the work/videos.

@sudhirraghubir

Жыл бұрын

HOW DO YOU EVEN DARE TO SANCTION INDIAN TRADE???!!! YOU SMALL LITTLE MINDS,''EUROPE BUYS(TILL FEBRUARY,24 2022) MORE OIL IN AN AFTERNOON THAN INDIA USED TO IN A WHOLE YEAR. AND NOW YOU LIFT SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA,SO YOUR OIL AND GAS CAN FLOW CAN BE RESUMED.I PRAY THE RUSSIANS DONT,AND YOU FREEZE ,EVEN THINKIG ABOUT HOW TO SANCTION INDIAN,YOU POOR LAP DOGS OF USA. THE AMERICANS ARE SITTING PRETTYLAUGHING AT YOU SHIVERING,DYING OF HEAT AND THEN FLOODS. VERY VERY TRAGIC,BUT THIS IS WHAT BEFALLS A ''TRYANNICAL MENTALITY''THAT YOU,EUROPE PRACTICE,AT THE DROP OF HAT. SANCTIONS ON INDIA ,MY FOOT.!! YOU ARE DREAMERS ,LIVING IN COLONIAL TIMES. FOOLISH THINKING,WORSE,YOUVE LEARNT ZERO...NOTHING EXCEPT TO EXPLOIT PEOPLE OF COLOUR . WE'LL PAINT YOUR ASSES BLUE AND BLACK ,TRY US.

@thomasdoubting2730

Жыл бұрын

And I thaught "Dutch disease" only affected Elm trees... 🤔

@jorgegonzalez-larramendi5491

Жыл бұрын

happened in the usa. distracted by an idiot iraq war, the usa oligarchs closed factories gleefully, and sent them to maochina. each was copied repeatedly.

@jeffreydonlin3112

Жыл бұрын

@@thomasdoubting2730 lol...good one...

The analysis is interesting; the disruptive nature of a dominant industry, usually natural resources, is well explained. However what might need some follow up is tempo/urgency of it. So how long would it take Putin's Russia to adapt. Can that process be derailed as well. Compared to the self damage of all those measures in the west&allies. Are we talking months, yes urgency, years okay some moderation is posible. Even from a Ukrainian point of view; the ending of the war as quickly as posible would be nice. But the ending of the threat even better.

We now had two winters without Russian oil and gas in Europe, and we definitely weren't freezing. Winters don't tend to be very cold, and secondly, there were plenty of alternative options on the world market, so Russia can only sell to India and China with its shadow fleet.

Europe needs to balance energy security and sanctions. I think the prevailing sentiment is that Europe will take a few years to pivot, but Russia will not be able to find other markets at the same pace.

@florkyman5422

Жыл бұрын

Do they even have the skill and technology to keep pre-war energy flowing?

@cirno4820

Жыл бұрын

Green energy policy is gonna wreck Europe.

@numbersix8919

Жыл бұрын

Russia already has its new markets. I think the prevailing sentiment is that Europeans are doomed to freeze while they pirouette or whatever.

@numbersix8919

Жыл бұрын

@@florkyman5422 Do they have stuff they can burn is the question.

@cirno4820

Жыл бұрын

@@numbersix8919 Yes, but they're not allowed to. People are expected to sacrifice their lives "for the planet."

"While all excesses are hurtful, the most dangerous is unlimited good fortune." Seneca If they had no oil or gas they would had to learn to make something or provide a useful service.

3:20 You are wrong though in your description. While those things do matter a far bigger problem is underinvestment. Something you usually see is that investment in all other sectors dries up as it's more profitable to invest more into the extraction of resources. This is a big reason why Norway has been able to avoid the Dutch disease while Britain couldn't because the Norse government levies very heavy taxes on the oil sector and invests that money into other sectors.

here in mexico we have been having chrinic dutch disease since very very long and the result has been disastrous, only NAFTA has been able to partially buffer against it and avoid total disaster, like Venezuela

Great video. Seemed non-biased with just economic facts. Am interested in seeing videos like this that benefit or don’t benefit any nation in general.

@chi-8289

Жыл бұрын

Dude, 50 years you couldn't do anything to Iran or North Korea despite being the most sanctioned countries in the world. Iran doesn't have food and North korea doesn't have much energy. But both these countries survived and are surviving well. Russia is a food surplus, energy surplus, weapons surplus country with socialist universal education and well educated population, a well developed medical system, nuclear technology from energy to fuel and military use, and one of the biggest and the most experienced militaries in the world. West may be able to break it's economy to a large extent, but it'll never be able to bring it down to its knees. This is the country which brought down the Nazi Germany while 70% of it destroyed by the Nazis, with a little help from the Americans while the British were scared and holed up and getting bombed everyday. This is a nation with immense pride and its a country used to extreme difficulties for over centuries. On the other hand, the Europeans and the Americans had only been used to luxury and comfort for the last 3 generations. Already many of my relatives living in the western countries with very high paying jobs are feeling the pinch of inflation. Some of them in the UK told me at least 6 months ago that their lives have become so difficult and the government is constantly increasing the prices of everything . On many items, prices have gone up to 300% while fuel is anywhere between 70-80% high In fact, many of the UK companies are in turn buying these refined oil from India and selling it to various countries and making huge amounts of money as middlemen while UK mercenaries are going and getting captured or killed shamefully for a few bucks. You can't even get your acts together and you expect to win this war? Already a huge amount of public disapproval and protests are seen all around Europe against this war. This is the beginning of the end of western supremacy, Biden administration has done everything possible in these short times to end the western supremacy, from handing over Hong kong to China, Afghanistan to Taliban, re ignited Israel-Palestine conflict after 7 years of peace, and started this war. Open your eyes and see what's happening. The woke liberals are destroying everything you built for the last many centuries

@burtharbenson8860

Жыл бұрын

@@chi-8289 I think maybe my sarcasm was a little too dry. Read some of my other posts and you’ll get a clearer picture of what I think rn as an American.

This summer and autumn is a perfect time to super-insulate homes, offices, factories. I don't hear of a single person talking about this. Europe has done a lot to build high efficiency homes. But this is a perfect time to do a lot more.

@0799qwertzuiop

Жыл бұрын

Thats just not possible to do on a large scale, there is not enough labour. The only short term option is to use less gas. Long term Europe will go renewable anyway.

@gugas3013

Жыл бұрын

Who the fuck has the money to do so?

@ChucksSEADnDEAD

Жыл бұрын

Because it's cheaper to wait for an old building to get knocked down and put the insulation on a new building.

@VeniVidiAjax

Жыл бұрын

Europe does have a general mild climate. All homes from 1995 and up are very well insulated. Most older homes have too. Southern Europe really doesn’t need that much insulation stuff. Northern Europe already has insulated homes and own their own ways of producing energy. So it comes down to Germany and Eastern Europe that are heavily reliant on Russia’s energy industry. Those country’s need ways to get their shit together.

@dougwedel9484

Жыл бұрын

@@VeniVidiAjax I don't know how much natural gas European homes use for cooking and heating but when people say Russia will turn off the gas and leave them in the cold that suggests a lot of people rely enough on it for heat and cooking that it will be a concern. That's what I was thinking of. It makes no sense to me hearing people say Russia will cut off the gas and Europe will freeze this winter but no one saying, do something to save yourself, stop depending on Russian gas. It could be Germany and Eastern Europe who rely the most for heat and cooking, I am not aware of this. It makes sense as they are closer to Russia, so they would get access to pipelines first, physically/geographically.

Very well presented…

Good report.

In a way the US tech industry has had the same effect on US manufacturing as gas had in the Netherlands

@jpablo700

Жыл бұрын

Yes. One could argue its a "Wall Street" disease. The unique thing about the US is how diversified its economy is, though. However, not everything is what it seems. The "rust belt" (old manufacturing sectors) are upset at job losses and our previous president tapped into the sentiment to win the 2016 election.

@whosrevxnge5582

Жыл бұрын

@@jpablo700 please seek a therapist

@harenterberge2632

Жыл бұрын

@@benchoflemons398 manufacturing used to be 27% of US economy. So there is a decline.

@j3i2i2yl7

Жыл бұрын

Good comment, but I wonder if the tech sector saved the US from faster decline. Since the 80's the US entertainment industry has grown and heavy industry has fled. Well paying manufacturing jobs have shrunk and part-time minimum wage jobs with no benefits have increased. Would these trends have beendifferent without the internet snd smsrt phones?

@harenterberge2632

Жыл бұрын

@@j3i2i2yl7 there is always multiple factors at work. In the Netherlands it was not just gas, manufacturing jobs would have moved to low salary countries anyhow, the presence of gas just accelerated it.

You got it wrong on the definition of dutch diseas. This phenomenon is mainly linked to the national currency : if a country produces a large amount of natural ressources , and then sell them on the global market with its OWN currency, that one currency will increase in value (appreciation). Hence, the manufacturing sector becomes less competitive as its production appears "more expensive" due to the nationnal currency appreciation. This is why the dollar comes handy when setting gas deals...

@davidhimmelsbach557

Жыл бұрын

Bingo, Louis.

Very intelligent discussion every bit helps.

@chi-8289

Жыл бұрын

Ya very intelligent! And completely wrong. Dude, 50 years you couldn't do anything to Iran or North Korea despite being the most sanctioned countries in the world. Iran doesn't have food and North korea doesn't have much energy. But both these countries survived and are surviving well. Russia is a food surplus, energy surplus, weapons surplus country with socialist universal education and well educated population, a well developed medical system, nuclear technology from energy to fuel and military use, and one of the biggest and the most experienced militaries in the world. West may be able to break it's economy to a large extent, but it'll never be able to bring it down to its knees. This is the country which brought down the Nazi Germany while 70% of it destroyed by the Nazis, with a little help from the Americans while the British were scared and holed up and getting bombed everyday. This is a nation with immense pride and its a country used to extreme difficulties for over centuries. On the other hand, the Europeans and the Americans had only been used to luxury and comfort for the last 3 generations. Already many of my relatives living in the western countries with very high paying jobs are feeling the pinch of inflation. Some of them in the UK told me at least 6 months ago that their lives have become so difficult and the government is constantly increasing the prices of everything . On many items, prices have gone up to 300% while fuel is anywhere between 70-80% high In fact, many of the UK companies are in turn buying these refined oil from India and selling it to various countries and making huge amounts of money as middlemen while UK mercenaries are going and getting captured or killed shamefully for a few bucks. You can't even get your acts together and you expect to win this war? Already a huge amount of public disapproval and protests are seen all around Europe against this war. This is the beginning of the end of western supremacy, Biden administration has done everything possible in these short times to end the western supremacy, from handing over Hong kong to China, Afghanistan to Taliban, re ignited Israel-Palestine conflict after 7 years of peace, and started this war. Open your eyes and see what's happening. The woke liberals are destroying everything you built for the last many centuries

@sashathedonut

Жыл бұрын

@@chi-8289 well there is one thing but its a little drastic and i dont support it, invasion. invasion allows you to force these things directly onto their country (assuming you win)

Greatest channel on KZread. Epic stuff William. Between the arrival of further armament, the February (and forthcoming additional sanctions) and time itself, Russia's economic collapse will arrive sooner than my inaccurate 4-5 year projection. Great information and projections.

@chi-8289

Жыл бұрын

This analysis is completely wrong. 50 years you couldn't do anything to Iran or North Korea despite being the most sanctioned countries in the world. Iran doesn't have food and North korea doesn't have much energy. But both these countries survived and are surviving well. Russia is a food surplus, energy surplus, weapons surplus country with socialist universal education and well educated population, a well developed medical system, nuclear technology from energy to fuel and military use, and one of the biggest and the most experienced militaries in the world. West may be able to break it's economy to a large extent, but it'll never be able to bring it down to its knees. This is the country which brought down the Nazi Germany while 70% of it destroyed by the Nazis, with a little help from the Americans while the British were scared and holed up and getting bombed everyday. This is a nation with immense pride and its a country used to extreme difficulties for over centuries. On the other hand, the Europeans and the Americans had only been used to luxury and comfort for the last 3 generations. Already many of my relatives living in the western countries with very high paying jobs are feeling the pinch of inflation. Some of them in the UK told me at least 6 months ago that their lives have become so difficult and the government is constantly increasing the prices of everything . On many items, prices have gone up to 300% while fuel is anywhere between 70-80% high In fact, many of the UK companies are in turn buying these refined oil from India and selling it to various countries and making huge amounts of money as middlemen while UK mercenaries are going and getting captured or killed shamefully for a few bucks. You can't even get your acts together and you expect to win this war? Already a huge amount of public disapproval and protests are seen all around Europe against this war. This is the beginning of the end of western supremacy, Biden administration has done everything possible in these short times to end the western supremacy, from handing over Hong kong to China, Afghanistan to Taliban, re ignited Israel-Palestine conflict after 7 years of peace, and started this war. Open your eyes and see what's happening. The woke liberals are destroying everything you built for the last many centuries

@chi-8289

Жыл бұрын

Also, what makes matters worse for the Europeans is that, Russia doesn't import much of Essential stuff like food or fuel, what it imports mostly is luxury goods from EU, which includes French perfumes, Italian luxury fashion, German luxury cars etc,. Now you're creating a vacuum and giving great opportunities for the new Chinese car and luxury manufacturers as they are already trading in Yuan

Jake Broe has a great video with graphs showing what has happened and what is happening, and what's going to happen.

Such a educational video. You explain the economic consequences so clearly

@andreycham4797

Жыл бұрын

Piece of western propaganda . What ever he says about dutch disease was relevant till 2014 I stop watching this nonsense after he said Russian energy sector survived . Russians make record profits in revenue from gas and oil by 40 percent higher this year then a year ago in spite cutting supplies by up to 50 percent

@akulkis

Жыл бұрын

International sanctions have NO consequences for Russia, because the only things that Russia imports are bananas, avocados, German luxury cars (over-engineered and more expensive to maintain and repair than they are worth) and Italian leather goods (women's shoes and handbags). Not a single one of these items is necessary to the health of the Russian people nor their economy nor their military. Try again. They have EVERY natural resource necessary for a modern economy and a modern military. And 2/3 of the country hasn't even been explored, let alone surveyed by minerologists.

@ananke2104

Жыл бұрын

Not really .

@stevenmoore3480

Жыл бұрын

@@akulkis you(tuber) vs experts LMFAO 🤡 ego.

@triplemania5550

Жыл бұрын

@@akulkis That's what the Russian propaganda says. In the meanwhile, they're struggling with production because they did import more stuff than the items you mention. Worth mentioning: semiconductors! Which are indeed necessary for their economy and military. Another example, Russian airline industry is looking which aircrafts they can take apart for parts to keep other aircrafts flying. Last time I checked, avocados weren't on the part list for aircrafts. You can have zero natural resources and still have a modern economy, while just having natural resources is not sufficient for a modern economy at all. Making everything yourself is so incredibly inefficient compared to trading that you simply can't have that fortress economy and expect to have a modern economy at the same time. To expand the example of semiconductors: Plenty of silicon all around the world, but it does take the latest EUV machines from ASML (Netherlands) to produce modern chips. Yes, the chip industry of the entire world depends on machines from just this one manufacturer. These machines use state of the art mirrors from Zeiss (Germany). Russia can't produce any of that. Good luck with your fortress economy, North Korea II.

Great discussion.

Europe can substitute electrically-powered heat pumps for gas furnaces, and get the electricity by large increases in distributed solar energy (sufficient to also power the vehicle fleet, once it is converted from fuel to full battery-electric, with newer, better, cheaper batteries) and in wind farms. Both solar energy and wind energy need to be stabilized with large amounts of distributed batteries, and more batteries near wind farms and solar farms. This technology can be rolled out in India too. That permanently kills the Russian fossil fuel industry.

"...easier said than done." Understatement.

I’m a Dutchie and never heard of the term “Dutch desease” did’nt knew this was a thing.

Great analysis

I usually hear this referred to as the 'Natural Resource Curse' or something similar. Never heard of it termed like this. But the proposed solution would be a non-starter. Unsanctioning Iran without a nuclear deal of some kind (even if it's relatively ineffective) would be politically suicidal in the US especially. And since Iran is now fairly close to a nuclear weapon, they have less incentive to deal rather than just getting over the line.

If the West wants to take down Russia by energy sanctions, to the dislike of some environmentalists, lots of fossil fuel sources such as coal plants would need to be restarted to meet the energy demand. Otherwise, large investments into nuclear power would need to be made. Which wouldn't be as easy as probably restarting fossil fuel industries like coal.

@PeterMuskrat6968

Жыл бұрын

Not as easy but well worth it. I mean an investment for Decades that has the ability to power multiple towns or cities and with a pretty safe record. Sucks that most “green” people will scream about Solar or Wind like it’s the be all end all solution

@GCarty80

Жыл бұрын

While I love nuclear power, it sadly can't be built in time to affect this war.

@scottwillie6389

Жыл бұрын

@@GCarty80 Which is the same excuse they were giving 20 years ago, that had we ignored, we'd have enough nuclear power plants right now! Nation states can not be effectively run by people who can only think on timelines of weeks or months. We can't go back in time and fix the mistakes of the past. But we absolutely can prevent the mistakes of the future. All our efforts right now should be focused on designing and building next generation nuclear reactors.

@AverageUsernames

Жыл бұрын

@@scottwillie6389 u sure?

@Utrilus

Жыл бұрын

Germany has been actively trying to get rid of nucler power for decades, the green initiative, and just when they are about to achieve no nuclear power and only power through coal and gas... their gas supply gets cut off...

This channel is invaluable. Thanks William!

@DonutsIceCreamAndCottenCandy

Жыл бұрын

I like that song

@themapleleafforever1526

Жыл бұрын

@@DonutsIceCreamAndCottenCandy t'was our national anthem before Oh Canada.

@chi-8289

Жыл бұрын

But this analysis is completely wrong. Dude, 50 years you couldn't do anything to Iran or North Korea despite being the most sanctioned countries in the world. Iran doesn't have food and North korea doesn't have much energy. But both these countries survived and are surviving well. Russia is a food surplus, energy surplus, weapons surplus country with socialist universal education and well educated population, a well developed medical system, nuclear technology from energy to fuel and military use, and one of the biggest and the most experienced militaries in the world. West may be able to break it's economy to a large extent, but it'll never be able to bring it down to its knees. This is the country which brought down the Nazi Germany while 70% of it destroyed by the Nazis, with a little help from the Americans while the British were scared and holed up and getting bombed everyday. This is a nation with immense pride and its a country used to extreme difficulties for over centuries. On the other hand, the Europeans and the Americans had only been used to luxury and comfort for the last 3 generations. Already many of my relatives living in the western countries with very high paying jobs are feeling the pinch of inflation. Some of them in the UK told me at least 6 months ago that their lives have become so difficult and the government is constantly increasing the prices of everything . On many items, prices have gone up to 300% while fuel is anywhere between 70-80% high In fact, many of the UK companies are in turn buying these refined oil from India and selling it to various countries and making huge amounts of money as middlemen while UK mercenaries are going and getting captured or killed shamefully for a few bucks. You can't even get your acts together and you expect to win this war? Already a huge amount of public disapproval and protests are seen all around Europe against this war. This is the beginning of the end of western supremacy, Biden administration has done everything possible in these short times to end the western supremacy, from handing over Hong kong to China, Afghanistan to Taliban, re ignited Israel-Palestine conflict after 7 years of peace, and started this war. Open your eyes and see what's happening. The woke liberals are destroying everything you built for the last many centuries

@chi-8289

Жыл бұрын

What makes matters worse for Europeans is, Russia doesn't import much of Essential stuff like food or fuel, what if imports mostly are luxury goods from the EU like the French perfumes, Italian fashion, German luxury cars etc,. Which people can live without and people won't buy as you destroy their disposable income more and more. Infact, you're creating a vacuum and providing a new market for the new Chinese automobile and luxury manufacturers

Thanks!

@Gametheory101

Жыл бұрын

Thank you!

The same has happened in Norway, where people are demanding excessive pay rises.

When I was working on one of the first computer aided instruction systems in the mid 1970s most, if not all, integrated circuit chips were domestically produced. Somehow, that technology has trickled outside of our borders in the intervening decades. Now we are experiencing a chip shortage. So, we, as well as many other industrial nations, set ourselves up for economic vulnerabilities for other short term gains.

@feedyourmind6713

Жыл бұрын

Labor's expensive in the US.

@ibubezi7685

Жыл бұрын

Europe not being able to (fully) function without Russian gas - which started during the Cold War. It was cheap, so let's not think of any strategic consequences... 'Each country gets the government it deserves' - can't think of any country where the intellectual level of its leadership exceeds that of Joe Sixpack.

@ronblack7870

Жыл бұрын

it's because wall st and MBA's . they only care for quarterly profits and MBA's led to all the offshoring to cheaper countries.

@davidhimmelsbach557

Жыл бұрын

The shortage is ENTIRELY due to an explosion of demand. Global chip output has been expanding at a phenomenal rate for decades. The US lost its hyper dominance -- having created the entire industry (Texas Instruments patent, especially) -- when Asian governments force fed money into their national favorites. This reached its extreme in South Korea and Taiwan.

Increasingly I think it's being seen that all this fun we've had in the past 100 years has led us to a position that it makes more sense for us to be peaceful and sensible about our relationships.

@Linogewillkillallofy

Жыл бұрын

No not really. Wars have been going on for thousands of years, and will never change. As long as there are countries with only one person in charge, or religions there will be war.

@Rondo2ooo

Жыл бұрын

Most take that seriously, but some are delusional. That's the issue when somebody stays too long in power.

As a Dutch imagrant to the USA yes oil drove out Farmers and boat builders that now produce in the USA

Awesome Mini Documentary.

Iran has been selling oil while under sanction already. It’s speculated that they have maybe 1-2mmbpd spare capacity. I think it’s overly optimistic to think they’ll be able make a meaningful impact on supply if a nuclear agreement can be made.

@MrTaxiRob

Жыл бұрын

it's more about having it available in the domestic markets of the West than about total output. We'd pay them more than whatever black market rates they're getting for their current output. Who is even buying their shit, DPRK maybe? Russia of course? When the Imperial Core representing half the Earth's GDP opens its collective wallet, everybody listens. If I'm wrong, then explain how Ukraine has lasted so long against Russia in the first place...

@stanspb763

Жыл бұрын

But they are fully aligned with Russia and China so there will be no interest in ending western sanctions because they are not trading in dollars. They have a whole different second pole of a multipolar world that has formed. India and China are better customers and treat Iran well. They would gain nothing from being tied to the US.

@MrTaxiRob

Жыл бұрын

@@stanspb763 how do you know what currency they are trading in? China is still buying US dollars, and so is Iran. Russian rubles aren't worth much. And China reigns over them in terms of GDP, but still hasn't reached GDP parity with the US. That makes their little world still less wealthy overall compared to the US and EU combined. They're just not the big deal you seem to think they are. And Iran has quite a bit to gain by trading with the countries that comprise fully half the world's GDP compared to a bloc that represents at best 17% of it collectively.

@VeniVidiAjax

Жыл бұрын

@@stanspb763 that’s because of sanctions. If sanctions are lifted, import and export of Iran will increase massively. China doesn’t want troubles not a fight with the west as both are quite important to each other. More important than Russia is. It’s only the oils and gas that makes china support Russia.

@noirekuroraigami2270

Жыл бұрын

@@MrTaxiRob China and Russia have had opened BRICS like 5 yrs ago. It allows them to trade without using USD

Thank you for this clear concise explanation. My fear is 'what's good for the goose can be good for the gander'! I see similarities to my nation (UK) Mrs. Thatcher decimated our manufacturing sector in favor of the financial sector. If EU decides to take this from us we are screwed and will need to rethink our whole economy.

@sogghartha

Жыл бұрын

the EU isn't 'taking' anything from the UK, the companies are deciding for themselves where is most profitable for them to have their headquarters

Replace Iran with Venezuela and I can agree. Thumbs down for mixing up both countries.

Since you wrote this 6 months ago, Europe did not need Russian oil after all. Russian oil sold to Turkey and China will be continue to be sold to them at a big discount. Russia loses more revenue of a dwindling supply due to a declining oil sector, a double whammy. The U.S. was able to furnish the deficit with its oil and gas exports. The impact of sanctions also applies to the weakening of the oil sector and manufacturing sectors, more losses in the Russian economy. Russia already cannot use much of its manufacturing sectors due to a lack of parts also due to sanctions. China is selling Russia cars since they cannot make their own cars, OR TANKS.

I am upset there weren't any lines on maps.

Thank you for the content. You do a good job explaining your views in a way that’s easy to comprehend.

Electricity production is a minimal problem (small amounts of gas are used to support renewables, but that can be replaced with storage and interconnects), the main issue is the dependence on Natural gas for heat, you cannot just replace that with electricity.

@stevepowell6503

Жыл бұрын

Yeah. You can replace it with electricity, but at a much greater price.

@tonystanley5337

Жыл бұрын

@@stevepowell6503 Its not that easy, I mean its too big a mountain, we don't have the renewables capacity (any time soon) and it would be pointless and more environmentally damaging to use fossil produced electricity for heating. Heat pumps are going to be too big a demand if everyone uses them. You need to use shallow geothermal for cities and communities to hit the bulk of homes, as well as thermal storage.

@stevepowell6503

Жыл бұрын

@@tonystanley5337 all true.

How does it come? Most Dutch people have never heard of all these terms named after us. I know of "going dutch." but this one is new to me. What other "dutch" terms are there, that a dutch person probably doesn't know of.

@neilmanhard1341

Жыл бұрын

"Dutch Uncle". Generally referring to an older, wiser gentleman dispensing prudent advice. That's the only other additional "Dutch" term I know.