Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem. I often talk about how large Arctic temperature amplification we are experiencing risks a near term Blue-Ocean Event, and further slowing of the jet streams. Increased waviness of the jet streams increases the frequency, severity, and duration of extreme weather events, plus they are happening in regions they never happened before. But…. If the AMOC slows faster, and exceeds a threshold causing an AMOC shutdown (actually rewiring to lower latitudes) the Arctic will quickly cool and the jet streams will quickly strengthen and Europe goes into a deep freeze. No Blue Ocean event for a long time. It’s like the climate system is a finely tuned Swiss watch, and we hit it with a sledge hammer. Everything changes and the system is highly nonlinear so strange things happen. Where we end up all depends on which part of the climate system breaks first. And it is breaking. In this video, I chat about a recent paper that divides the North Atlantic Ocean into 5 different sections (boxes) and examines temperature, salinity, density, and ocean currents over 5 to 6 decades within each section, and within the overall North Atlantic Ocean. By examining these so-called ocean fingerprints, the hope is that we can see how quickly changes are occurring, and how long it might take before the AMOC fails, and what I call “the mother of all tipping points” is triggered. Exciting times… Links Study Documents Slowing of Atlantic Ocean Currents phys.org/news/2024-03-documents-atlantic-currents.html Earth NullSchool earth.nullschool.net/ Maryland Today today.umd.edu/study-documents-atlantic-currents-slowing World Ocean Database www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/world-ocean-database World Ocean Atlas www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/world-ocean-atlas www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/world-ocean-atlas-2018f/ Main Peer-reviewed paper Revisiting the multidecadal variability of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and climate www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2024.1345426 Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w.pdf The Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Diminishes Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105929#:~:text=To%20summarize%2C%20our%20results%20suggest,during%20the%20past%20four%20decades. Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem

@yliannamarie403

2 ай бұрын

An observation I would like to share with you about Water is to refrain from using the word ‘the” before Water. For example, Drink more Water, now. Thank you for listening and keep breathing.

@GhostOnTheHalfShell

Ай бұрын

Too bad we don't have science based (economic) damage functions. Keen and Lenton have a proposal to do this, but other than scientist crowd sourcing the research getting funding is tricky. Mainstream economists will thwart it.

Hello. I'm Paul Beckwith. CLASSIC.

@EmeraldView

2 ай бұрын

Who?

@nativespiritindian8278

Ай бұрын

used be hello I'm Paul Harvey good day

The model looked at sea surface temperatures and wind patterns. This seems to follow a pattern where there is no consultation with an oceanographer. The Deep Ocean has been our heat sink, absorbing over 90% of all heat energy in the last 4 decades. It's no wonder that all of these models have shown "unexpected" results.

@margaretneanover3385

Ай бұрын

The source is the issue under some circumstances of observation. The water always had some absorption. What changed?

Thanks for introducing us to these fascinating and useful tools to understand our complex climate system.

i just started the video, but I already love your organized desktop behind you! I know, it's trivial, but visual clutter is hard for some of us. Thanks for all you do Paul!

Really appreciate your work, Paul. Keep at it! 🎉😊

thanks Paul

Great video. I had downloaded the Mishonov paper but hadn't read it yet. Thanks for making so many videos, they are a constant instigation for me to continue close attention to the AMOC and understanding its complexity. So many people are dismissive of nearly all the science but I think lay people like myself should attend to all of it most closely for our own decisions. We should all be talking about it, all the time. Maybe then more people around us will feel this is something real they are missing out on completely. FOMO, or whatever young people call that. I see American migration patterns are more public, new book by Abrahm Lustgarten, and there are Dr. Emily Schoerning's painstakingly detailed videos based on American Climate Change Assessment reports. With the 5th report now out she is re-making her state-by-state videos and they are now very detailed. She plans to scale these up. I often wish to know more about Canadian climate predictions, as their data seems excellent to me. Americans may end up on their doorstep but I fear Canada won't escape dire impacts either.

Thanks Paul

"...aptitude, bent and interest..."❣

Beautiful office Paul!!!

Very interesting!!!!!!! I live in Sweden and try to understand the geopolitical and geoeconomic consequenses of a AMOC shutdown in the North East Atlantic. What does a AMOC shutdown mean? - Murmansk is no longer a ice free harbour. Might be so thick ice that Russia can't use Murmansk as a naval base. Might be good but what will the maniac Putin do? - No more oil and gas for Russia and Norway from the Arctic region. Good for the climate. - What will happen with the very important hydro power in northern Norway and Sweden? Very important for the EU energy system. I must read this paper in detail. I'm not sure but I have a theory that AMOC will stop in northwest Atlantic and that means that the cool bottom water will reach up to zone 5. So we will in other words still have cold water at the bottom of zone 5. We will also have a MUCH warmer surface water in the Atlantic close to Spain. My theory is that this will create a new circulation that is much smaller and more local than the AMOC but is big enough for save zone 5 from cooling down in the near future (before 2100).

@thunderstorm6630

2 ай бұрын

it will mean, problems with growing food in sweden

@tomaseriksson4533

2 ай бұрын

​@@thunderstorm6630 Missed that aspect. It will be harder to grow food even if most areas with food production are in southern Sweden and "only" will see around 4 degree lower temperature.

@antonyjh1234

2 ай бұрын

"Maniac" is a subjective term, they will probably become a gas giant, supplying China which will supply Africa which will be almost half the world by 2100. Give a lot of people around the world 5$ and you have doubled their consumption, the last 200 years could happen in the next 100.. If you think permafrost melting making rigs impossible before and the world seemingly running out of cheap oil is going to mean no more gas for Russia or even USA in Alaska, then no, sorry, if you live in Sweden, you would be better off getting used to warmer winters and a longer growing season. A slower Amoc could be the natural thing that causes ice ages, we also are putting enough heat in that it stops completely and still sweden becomes a food bowl of tropical fruit.

@thunderstorm6630

2 ай бұрын

@@tomaseriksson4533 why 4°C lower? When seawater is lower 4°C it will be much lower on land! I saw documents with lower temp. of -12°C for Oslo, isn*t that close to south sweden?

@thunderstorm6630

2 ай бұрын

I mean arkopia

Paul , with all due respect NOAA is not a division of NASA . Love your channel and your dedication .....

I'm so scared of AGW. It's not like humans have gone through much more severe climactic changes many times in our 300,000 years of walking the earth, including warmer temps...

Thanks Paul, I read the paper and the main message I took was the strength of the Gulf Stream element continues to be robust, even as it adjusts, so I think you might be reading a little too much into some of your talk if you think it supports imminent collapse of the AMOC.

Great presentation by Faculty Member Paul Beckwith.

Its not just in the atmosphere, but a incoming above reaction too. Movies or not, the situation is surreal to be concerned

Great explanation breakdown of all data.

Thank you Paul

Merci beaucoup

Thanks! 🙂

The massive accumulation of heat in the ocean makes it really hard to believe this ice creating fantasy. Recent paper that GM presented on NBL shows consistent correlation between Greenland meltwater, winds and exactly what areas of Europe will heat the following summer. It says Europe will continue with warmer drier summers with heat waves and drought ...and that makes a hell of a lot more sense.

I think I am correct in understanding that ice core samples from the Arctic and Greenland have been used to determine atmospheric conditions from previous ice ages. Is it therefore possible to use this type of analysis to glean understanding of sea level salinity and density levels from ice ages to give some indication of what could potentially happen currently?

Go ahead, Paul. Rip what's left of my heart out.

As I understand it, Greenland ice melt has to keep feeding the slow down so may keep warming, but Norway to Ireland may get the ice sheet? An author of an AMOC paper did an interview with Nick Breeze not so long ago. So, I imagine, one day the ice sheet melt from Greenland rate slows down to a certain point eventually, the AMOC might then eventually start turning on again? The guy on Nick Breeze's channel said it was not a thing to worry about right now as it needed 80x more melt in the model? iirc, so more of a 2050 and on problem.

@user-ym5hx6ky2m

2 ай бұрын

Can you have a problem if there is no one around to realize the problem? Hmmmm.

@robertcartwright4374

2 ай бұрын

I think the paleo evidence from previous AMOC shut-downs is the re-start takes hundreds of years.

Is there any information on the possible effect of the weakening of the AMOC on the migration of european eels from the west Atlantic to the east? Or of the weakening of the AMOC on ocean trophic relations and migrations overall?

The slowing of ocean currents will be another gut punch to the biosphere, and the hits will keep coming and with more rapdity. We're doing nothing.

youtube is fast make the comment 1 will watch it now, before home office.

While we won't get The Day After Tomorrow if the AMOC shuts down I'm afraid of the UK & Ireland becoming like Labrador, Labrador becoming like Baffin Island, New Jersey becoming like Labrador, and Georgia becoming like New Jersey. During the most recent glaciation however New Jersey was like Baffin Island!

does a slow down of the AMOC mean the trend is leading towards an inevitable shutdown?

@jerrylyns7331

2 ай бұрын

Yes.

My money is on a BOE happening before the AMOC shutdown.

Is the depth more? That's a water movement needing answers. Is sea level changing? Because depth might mean deeper ground, or higher water. Which is a form sphere protocol aspect. Add the search for actual earth center of gravity as it's understood. That has varied aspect so think it over maybe.

The level of agreement between papers is tiring. The idea of global warming kicking off a mini ice age in the north is creative

@solarwind907

2 ай бұрын

When peer reviewed papers come to the same conclusions independently, that’s tiring?

@graemeguy341

2 ай бұрын

I'm also surprised there could be more polar ice considering both the rapid atmospheric and in particular the ocean warming. It implies that all the heat is contained in the tropics. I'm sceptical

@rdallas81

2 ай бұрын

Wishful deception.. The stage is already set. Disasters of biblical proportions is coming. Just look at things such as the permafrost melting in Russia- and Siberia. Huge holes opening up. Massive sized pockets of gas created by thawing bacteria creating high enough pressure its literally exploding massive craters in the ground.

@rdallas81

2 ай бұрын

​@@graemeguy341not. Global water temps are increasing all around the world.

The Heinrich Bond cycle in sync with the Milankovich cycle is the cause.

@whatabouttheearth

Ай бұрын

😂 Your comment displays your ignorance of basic science. There is no such thing as the Milankovitch Cycle sans plurality.

@whatabouttheearth

Ай бұрын

😂 Your comment displays your ignorance of basic science. There is no such thing as the Milankovitch Cycle sans plurality.

@whatabouttheearth

Ай бұрын

😂 Your comment displays your ignorance of basic science. There is no such thing as the Milankovitch Cycle sans plurality.

blue kachina is here now and they will not change their ways so the blue will bring the red kachina to reset mother earth Mother earth will move A ho

> 😂😂😂

Beautiful office Paul!!!