Install Raid for Free ✅ IOS/ANDROID/PC: clcr.me/CovertCabal_Mar23 and get a special starter pack with an Epic champion ⚡ Kellan the Shrike ⚡

@gnombtw8931

Жыл бұрын

You should really make a Video for IFV's, APC's and Artillery.

@111076tom

Жыл бұрын

Why do you not mention the fact that they are producing 125 tenks pr month? And the tanks out of storage are more likely being upgraded than sendt directly to the front...

@naponroy

Жыл бұрын

Gayd Shadow Losers strikes again. If this game were any good, why would they need to push it so hard? *SCAM*

@gnombtw8931

Жыл бұрын

​@@111076tom Source? 125 This would be cold war production Level. Impossible to achieve without the Soviet industry and sanctions. They are maybe restoring and upgrading 125 Tanks per month. Also there upgrades are worse compared to pre-war level.

@andreylucass

Жыл бұрын

​@@naponroyit's not a scam, it's just another pay to win mobile game. Satellite footage is very expensive and they pay youtubers well to promote it, so just ignore it. War Thunder is awesome btw if you're interested in good war games.

As someone who grew up in the cold war, the fact that a random youtuber can task a satellite that has enough precision to make an educated guess as to the type and condition of imaged tanks is either one of the most impressive or scariest things that I can imagine. And you should really do a colab with Perun.

@MrAjmay1

Жыл бұрын

Would 100% support the teamup w/Perun. Y'all are 2 of the best, and could pool resources.

@Oldsmobility98

Жыл бұрын

Perun is a Ukrainian propagandist. No need to bring that dogma to this channel of objective analysis.

@militantcapitalist4606

Жыл бұрын

@@Oldsmobility98 your cope is so god damn hard and edgy, you should market it to the ruzz army, I heard they need weapons badly; also, wagner need good strong vatnik men ready for adventure!

@panderson9561

Жыл бұрын

As someone who also grew up in the cold war, I concur.

@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714

Жыл бұрын

@@Oldsmobility98 Perun is a military economist, he says things as they are.

It's just amazing that we are living during a time when a private citizen can get a hold of military intelligence that 50 years ago would make generals piss their pants from excitement.

@Holuunderbeere

Жыл бұрын

Well wait 20years and it will be way more scarier

@dudududu1926

Жыл бұрын

@@Holuunderbeere You will be able to ask ChatGPT what's the US nuclear launch codes.

@grobbs666

Жыл бұрын

​@Holunderbeere heck, wait 6 months and AI is gonna take over half the jobs in the world! My friend had Chat GPT write him a 20 page legal document contesting a will. Goodbye to the legal industry, where 99% of the time they just do research and write legal documents. Countless other industries too

@rowdyzack5914

Жыл бұрын

Thanks the folks paying to win at Raid Shadow Legends for the satellite photo funding

@egregius9314

Жыл бұрын

@@Holuunderbeere In another 20 years we'll ask the then current version of ChatGPT to provide an estimate, and it will provide an accurate and easy to understand infographic.

Jaw-dropping intelligence gathering. You've literally done a whole department's work single-handed. Incredible job.

@dixonpinfold2582

Жыл бұрын

Hard to tell, really. I notice he says "ga-RODGE", which is not the most promising sign.😄

@tbas8741

Жыл бұрын

People don't make these channels alone, He will have researchers, Editors, 3D Artists, Quality control team.

@CZOV

Жыл бұрын

And the sponsors of this video - the Pentagon :)

@hydrolifetech7911

Жыл бұрын

Salty vatniks and MAGAts strong in the reply section

@true_xander

Жыл бұрын

Not really. Guy just said his data is unreliable and counting are pretty approximate cuz he often couldn't even decide if he sees a tank or something else.

The kind of work you’re doing is beyond amazing. I’m an 80s/90s kid, and the fact that you can now get these images , let alone commission a company to get them is unreal. Love your channel!

You should have a job as an intelligence analyst for the level of detail you’ve made into this project.

@jivakanl7387

Жыл бұрын

Yeah he does, and he should be president of the United States for the excellent leadership skills he has.

@2x2is22

Жыл бұрын

I've said it before and will say it again, if intel agencies aren't putting these videos in their briefings then they need to start

@nathanielalaburgDelhi

Жыл бұрын

Never too late

@ferdievanschalkwyk1669

Жыл бұрын

​@@jivakanl7387 so you are saying Covert Cabal is secretly Jack Ryan?

@garnetmichel5517

Жыл бұрын

Maybe he is in the intelligence business you think the CIA will ever be caught lacking 😂😂😂

Great video! No baloney, straight to the point, a cool balance of facts and educated guesses along with a little bit of why... Thank you for sharing this information and for doing the nightmarish part!!😬

Ok covert cabal. When I first looked at this video I decided I needed to come back and have a careful look with a clear mind. Now, 4 months later what I see is the following. 1. The Military Balance figure for 2023 has 1,800 in service, 5,000 in storage so 6,800 in total. And that's presumably after a year of attrition. 2. Your figures for 2022 (pre war, or sometime during 2022?) Good 4696, Bad 2,380 - this is not counting those not in storage. Timestamp 4:41 3. Your figures by type for earlier in 2023 (added up). Good 3,911. So 785 fewer "good" tanks. Timestamp 9:29 And then apart from some other minor issues, this is really the only useful figures I can extract. So, we're back to the fundamental question: How many tanks did Russia have pre-invasion? Your 2022 figures are 4696 "good" tanks. In a previous video you came up with something like 2,800 active (iirc). Creating a baseline figure of 7,500 tanks. Subject to the caveat of when in 2022 this applies to The figures from the Military Balance (for 2023) are somewhat at variance, when you think about it. But not hugely so. To be honest, I think your figures are likely closer to the mark and Military Balance are still being a bit generous. So what is the basis of the variance between your original video and this one? In the original video you had 6,000 tanks in storage in total and in this one it's 7,000 total. You also had 3,000 "good" tanks in the original video, now 4,696 "good" tanks in this video. Clearly the classification of good vs bad has shifted and I'm not entirely sure how you did this, though the social media pictures of the bases might have come into that. I'd submit that there are plenty of tanks that probably look good on the outside, but are suffering ageing (or theft) in ways that can't be seen. So I'm still sceptical of the overall good/bad ratio. I'm also basing this scepticism on the number of tanks that have been pushed around. Obviously seeing if they'll start, what bits are missing, then parts hunting. What I'm going to do here is to accept that your total figures for 2022 (again, not sure if this is pre-war or not) as reasonably reliable. Along with the figure from the other video about the number of tanks in active service. So 10,000 tanks (7,000 storage + 3,000 active) of which "bad" accounts for at least 2,380, but again, I'm inclined to believe more are "bad". In other words, we are looking at a baseline of somewhere around 7,000 recoverable tanks that Russia had pre-war. Give or take some uncertainties about the dates. That compares to the 5,800 total usable tanks, which was my "take home" figure from your original video. I have every reason to believe that Oryx is a substantial under-count. Oryx itself says this. In any case, the ratio of Russian tanks destroyed or captured, according to Oryx versus the tanks counted as taken off the Russians by the Ukraine Ministry of Defence has typically been around 1:1.9 but I think this ratio shrank a bit in recent months (haven't checked). As has been noted, not everything that blows up in Ukraine gets shared on social media. So I have reasonable confidence in the official Ukraine MoD figures. So let's proceed from there. Now, what this means is that as of today (19th Aug 2023) Russia has remaining 7,000 - 4,332 = 2,668 tanks. The 4,332 is the official Ukr MoD figure. In the last couple of months, the average rate of attrition for Russian tanks has been about 12 per day (since the start of the war, the average was 8, but it has gone up in recent months). At this rate of attrition, Russia will end up with zero tanks in 222 days. Now three more factors 1. Russian production of tanks. I believe its dozens per month, not hundreds. Against an attrition of 360+ per month. In other words, we hit zero in 266 days, not 222. 2. Attrition will climb as Ukraine breaks out and we see more manoeuvre warfare. The rate could double. 3. Russia doesn't need to run out of tanks for the situation to become critical. Hundreds, maybe closer to a thousand remaining. And I'm even this time ignoring the notion that Russia needs tanks in reserve for it's own territorial defence, because I think that Russia is now that desperate it would actually leave it's borders (and Moscow) poorly defended. Bottom line: 2,000 more tanks will disappear in 120 to 180 days (depending on your assumptions including production). Yes, that's December to Feb. That may bring Russia to "critical". We may even see signs of weakening, like more older tanks, during fall. We'll see. Meanwhile I'm going to sit back and watch that tank counter tick over to 5,000 sometime in late Sep/early Oct and it'll get to 5,500 in mid to late Nov. And meanwhile, the count of dead armoured vehicles has reached 8,410 and at current rate of attrition that will be 10,000 in November. Russia can mobilise all it wants, but those fresh mobiks are going to have to walk.

OK, hiring a satellite to take custom pictures is not something I expected from a YTer. Impressive.

@elektrotehnik94

Жыл бұрын

Suchomimus (on YT) does it from time to time 👍 From countring aircrafts & choppers on RU airports, to RU naval port analysis, to covering interesting "behind the Russian lines" attacks etc

@Schmidty1

Жыл бұрын

@@elektrotehnik94 yes but he takes publicly available satellite info and other info to do it. This is a little different as he specifically asked a satellite company to do this and paid for it with his own money for a video.

@Winter-CIG

Жыл бұрын

It's probably not as tricky as people think. We used to do it for high res plates for VFX shots as Google Earth and Bing aren't by default high res enough or commercially licensable. It can be a bit pricey though. Probably not as pricey as people think when they think "hiring a satellite" but more than what you'd expect for what is essentially a more detailed Google Earth image if you aren't particularly interested in them being super up to date.

@gusgone4527

Жыл бұрын

@@elektrotehnik94 Both of them must have national security jobs.

@gusgone4527

Жыл бұрын

@@SimoN-vf8ps What will the pigs do all day?

I don’t think I have ever seen so much work put into a 14 minute KZread video. Truly impressive work.

@CovertCabal

Жыл бұрын

Thank you! I'm glad the work paid off. It honestly had to be around 200 hours total. Half of it double, triple, and quadruple checking my work to make sure I didn't forget anything or miss something obvious

@carkawalakhatulistiwa

Жыл бұрын

@@CovertCabal how many tanks did the Soviets keep under the ural mountains.

I believe the Russian MoD watches this video to get an idea of how many tanks they actually have in storage

@yamoto1833

Жыл бұрын

Lolll

@alvinhang8721

Жыл бұрын

If I work for the Russian MoD, I would use any resource I can. This video is one of them. The Russia Federation is so huge, with so many depots spreading everywhere, nobody really knows how many tanks, trucks, APC, and artillery pieces are in working order. It will be a difficult jot to bring them together and in working order.

@frankrenda2519

Жыл бұрын

one thing is for sure the russians have more tanks than the collective west

@gaborenyedi637

Жыл бұрын

No offense, but this is bullshit. We're speaking about less than 10k tanks, they should be able to count them. This is not a huge number. Just allocate 100 Ivans to check them, each of them needs to check just 100 tanks, say 1 per day, and they are ready in 100 days.

@gryph01

Жыл бұрын

Funny, but probably true. 😁

Love the content! I don't see too many Content Creators actually going into depth with research like this and explaining it. Most of the time, they just speculate and move on. So this kind of dedication is appreciated.

I don't know if I enjoy that image at 4:04 per se, but I certainly appreciate what you had to do to get it. Keep up the good work and I for one, will keep watching.

You're probably the only youtuber I've seen that actively uses the revenue to provide us with more content, You're a real gem Covert Cabal

@yoshibobo

Жыл бұрын

You’ve never seen jerma985??

@MrPOODYMan

Жыл бұрын

Mr Beast has left the chat

@RaggedsEdge

Жыл бұрын

Torque Test Channel & Project Farm come to mind though he’s probably making more than he can put back in.

Russia NEVER said it was 800 t62 They said that they were going to modernise 800 tanks Now t80, t 72 and t62 have been seen coing into that factory in the far east

As a former tank mechanic and systems technician, the one major issue, among many, is barrel droop. Gravity is a bitch on long tank main guns and nothing is immune to the effects of gravity. Tanks being stored that long will need to be totally overhauled including replacing the barrel for barrel droop. Those systems used to keep a tank in useable shape does nothing to mitigate barrel droop. A bad barrel will render the main gun inaccurate and useless regardless of how well it is stored and the pictures in the video show no attempt to prop up the barrels at all. I can say from experience changing out a barrel is a bitch. At the point of +/- 5,000 shots in the 120mm barrel of an M1A1 and M1/A2 is replaced to be refurbished and if the droop detector registers the barrel to be out of spec, it is also removed to be refurbished. If it is an M1A1 the tank is just sent to the factory for an upgrade to the M1A2 latest model. Just from a turret perspective, I hope Russia has a lot of spare barrels, main gun breach assemblies, race rings, and bearings. Along with many, many other parts. All those old tanks are good for, at this point, is for scrap steel. And whatever old ass crap they manage to get running and field are only good for being tank crew coffins! As any mechanic will say, if you let an engine, transmission, and trans axle sit too long, the fluids, grease, and oils will gum up and the seals will dry up or just rot or turn to goo as well depending on the material used to make the seal. I can go on and on, but I firmly believe all those older tanks in storage are just scrap at this point. Just speaking from experience. I feel pity for the crew for any old tank being put in the field to fight. For several reasons that I mentioned, your numbers are way too high in attempting to count serviceable and operational tanks that Russia can field.

Regarding the tank storage sheds, it would make sense to me that the tanks stored in those would have been the first tanks to be taken out and shipped to be upgraded or direct to front line units. If they're pulling tanks out of storage areas that have been sat in the open for years I'd be surprised if there are many left in those sheds.

@skitidet4302

Жыл бұрын

But when you pull the good ones out of the sheds, you put the nicest ones outside in to the sheds... Whatever, continue coping if you are so inclined. Russia is not even going to run out of tanks in storage before Ukraine runs out of Tanks, IFVs, artillery shells, AA systems and men as all of those things are already severely depleted.

@Amann0407

Жыл бұрын

@@skitidet4302 Don't think Ukraine is running out of tanks or IFVs. They just got a few hundred western IFVs and about a hundred modern western tanks recently. While artillery ammo is in short supply, the same is true of Russian equipment and storage. Russia is likely to run out of tanks on the front line before it runs out of overall tanks due to simple production and refurbishment limitations. You can have 4,000 tanks, but if you can only refurbish 20-50 per month and are taking 100+ tank losses per month, eventually you won't have any left. And Ukraine has more anti tank weapons than there are tanks in the world currently.

@skitidet4302

Жыл бұрын

@@Amann0407 They seem to lose a couple hundred every month, so if they reservice a batch of 100 every 3 months, that means they are losing them 3 times as fast as they are getting them. There's also strong indication that they are very low on those things already since you for the most part see pure infantry actions that have to rely on civilian pickup trucks for mobility. "And Ukraine has more anti tank weapons than there are tanks in the world currently." Then where are they? In some kind of storage in Lviv or Kiev? Because you don't see that many at the actual front.

@skitidet4302

Жыл бұрын

@@Amann0407 Also, anti tank weapons aren't even close to Ukraine's biggest problem because artillery is the MVP of this trench warfare and Ukraine consumes way more ammo than NATO can produce and they still shoot way less than Russia does. To make things even worse, as of late, Russia has gained enough air superiority to start doing a lot of airstrikes to complement the artillery strikes, oh and Ukraine is running on fumes when it comes to medium and long range SAM missiles. Those things are probably connected...

@Amann0407

Жыл бұрын

@@skitidet4302 We have no indication that Ukraine is losing a couple hundred tanks every month. Confirmed losses is about 495 Ukrainian tanks versus 1937 Russian tanks thus far. Thanks to western supply of T-72s and Ukrainian captures of Russian tanks (which are higher than confirmed losses), Ukraine might actually have more tanks than Russia does on the battlefield now. Where Ukraine is probably having issues is IFVs. Much of their force is BMP-1s and M113s, and no way was their pre-war force enough to outfit 700,000 Ukrainian troops. They need to expand like 3-4 times to get everyone mechanized. Russia also has the same problem. And you are high. I saw a trench warfare video with 2 Ukrainians in a trench shooting off 3 or 4 RPGs in about 5 minutes. If a pair of Ukrainian troops are that well equipped in a hole in Bakhmut, then they got a fair bit of anti tank weaponry. We also have plenty of evidence of Ukrainian hunter killer teams sneaking up on Russian tanks and blowing them up with Stugna's and Javelins. Keep in mind that anti tank weapons are often used in anti infantry roles like AT-4s and RPG-7s. This is JUST the US aid to Ukraine btw. www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/

I'm very impressed with the dedication you have put into making this video. Keep up the good work!

Covert Cabal on a date: Girl: so, what do you do for a living? Covert: I spend money to aquire satellite imagery of Russian tank depots in order to count them and make free to watch videos about it Girl: You got me at satellite imagery

@CovertCabal

Жыл бұрын

Haha my fiancé actually showed me your comment! I. Sure she gets annoyed by me always trying to show her stuff

@markusz4447

Жыл бұрын

@@CovertCabal glad to hear the two of you are having a good time together! :) keep up your great work!

Insane amount of work you put into your videos! Thank you!

@Dmitry..592

Жыл бұрын

Ложь. Автор рассказал что не знает.

People hate on t62 tanks but they do a great job of behind the line security like sitting at a checkpoint that wont see combat

We appreciate the effort and hard work you and your team put in to create quality content! Keep up the great work!

The original news report in Russian originally said "800 vehicles", it did not say 800 T-62s. This got mixed up as other news outlets picked up the story.

@user-dl3nc4jx7k

Жыл бұрын

it was said that 800 t-62s would be upgraded in 3 years

@rafa-qq7xm

Жыл бұрын

​@@user-dl3nc4jx7k no i it was said 800 tanks will be upgraded in 3 years and T-62 was showed as an example of modernisation but it doesn't mean that all of them will be T-62.

@kuunoooo7293

Жыл бұрын

Yeah a lot of people indeed get this mixed up, they would modernise 800 tanks in total, not only t62's, it would also be t80bv's > t80bvm's and t72b's > t72b3's And some more upgrades

@user-dl3nc4jx7k

Жыл бұрын

@@rafa-qq7xmyou are wrong, I watched a report on TV from a tank repair plant there it was clearly said that 800 pieces of T-62 will be upgraded in 3 years.t-62s are being upgraded only at one tank repair plant No. 103 in the Far East, because there is a t-62 storage nearby. This year 1500-1600 tanks will be produced and modernized in Russia (1500 tanks were named by Medvedev, 1600 tanks were named by Putin).These are all repair shops (where tanks are repaired and upgraded) and the Uralzavod in Nizhny Tagil, where tanks are also produced. All types (T-72 B3М, T-80 BVM, T-90 M Breakthrough, and the remnants of T-62 (about 270 pieces per year))

@r200ti

Жыл бұрын

Yes, a rather deliberate mix up to continue western public support. And even beyond the mix up, they are also making up stories on the reasons and how each tank will be used. I guess the mainstream media play on the fact few people actually understand how warfare on a Russian scale and doctrine actually works.

Thanks for providing us a clear picture through the fog of war. It's amazing what you do. Thanks as well to everyone supporting the work you do, enabling us all to enjoy your incredible content.

A few years ago I saw a report about how a Russian hunter found a whole field in a Siberian forest with Russian tanks in good condition. I also remembered the story of the Russian RD-180 rocket engines, which supposedly should have been destroyed. But the Russians suddenly offered to sell them to the USA. The American representative said: But you don't have those engines! Then they brought him to a large hangar and opened it. He said that he saw this huge hangar with rows of RD-180 engines going into the depths of the hangar... There were dozens or even hundreds.. You never know what and where is hidden in Russia, given their tendency to distribute weapons in unexpected places. It would be necessary to scan the entire territory of Russia. But this is physically impossible, even if the tanks are in an open field.

@sH-ed5yf

Жыл бұрын

Well, this Story could be just pure bs, but fine lets asume it is true. If you would "find" tanks out in the siberian tiga, they would have been their for years, out in the open, exposed to the elements and Not checked on. Meaning they are in very bad shape, and require massive repairs

9:45 it sems that the "800 T-62" news was missreported. 1. Andrey Gurulyov, former general/now politician, visited the 103rd Armored Repair Plant. 2. That repair plant was modernising T-62 at the time (you can find video footage of that visit and see the T-62). 3. Gurulyov announced that 800 tanks would be modernised at this factory over a time of 3 years, INCLUDING T-62. He did not say that ALL 800 would be T-62! That said, the number was just one claim by one politician anyway. He might well have missunderstood it himself, exaggerated, or straight up made it up. Yet it was generally reported as a plain fact.

@CovertCabal

Жыл бұрын

Thanks! I saw the video, and had it downloaded in case I needed it for this video... but never bothered to really look into what he said. It sucks trying to pay attention to every tiny remote detail, just to miss something obvious like that! Haha

@joestrat2723

Жыл бұрын

@@CovertCabal You would probably have lost count of the tanks. :) Great video btw.

@T33K3SS3LCH3N

Жыл бұрын

​@@CovertCabal you're doing the heavy lifting here, I really appreciate the video series! Just wanted to add some background on that detail, now that we have an even better idea what distribution of tank types we're dealing with.

Out of curiosity, how much money did it take to make this video?

Incredible work! Thank you so much for doing this!

your videos are amazing. That takes a LOT of work and patience. Well done, please keep up the hard work you do!

Absolutely superb OSINT - invaluable and one that can be used as a reliable source. Thanks for your time, effort and expense in doing this. Cheers from Oz :)

Could barely wait until another one of these was released, thanks for all the hard work!

Good work! Most excellent dedication, massive kudos to you. I would only make an editor's note: reduction in countable items goes "fewer", instead of "less" like with substances. Anyway, top job!

Russia is now confirmed to have lost at least 2405 tanks in Ukraine.

Perun: Military economics analyst and PowerPoint king Covert Cabal: satelite imagery specialist with a pathological counting fetish.

I have watched other similar videos that you’ve done and I am totally impressed with the attention to detail and use of rational analysis. I tip my hat 🎩 to you and yell Thanks!!

@CovertCabal

Жыл бұрын

Thank you! I love to hear people enjoy the work! It makes the sleepless nights worth it. Plus I get to show these comments to my fiancé to show not coming to bed paid off haha

@elektrotehnik94

Жыл бұрын

@@CovertCabal Please give our thanks to the fiancé. ❤ We collectively get a better picture of how to (politically) wage this war, thanks to your work. At least hundreds of thousands, if not millions of us (through word of mouth) We might be strangers & insignificant - but we see the effort & truly are grateful! ❤

@edyknight9218

Жыл бұрын

@@CovertCabal Those T-80 tanks that hadn't moved in years may have had their engines stripped out to keep other T-80s in action since the T-80s turbine engine was hard to find spare parts for.

This project is really a great contribution to the OSINT information on the war and helps the understanding of those who are not in possession of official intelligence. Obviously, assessing these things from a distance has its limitations, but the educated estimate you provide is still invaluable.

@KVX21

Жыл бұрын

Right, but none of you seem to understand what is really happening. Amazing!!

@CovertCabal

Жыл бұрын

Thanks! I also found out another OSINT person, who has a different method of determining tanks, came up with a real similar number of each type as me! So it's on the right track at least!

here in Slovakia we have underground bases for tanks or former mines repurposed as storage facilities or huge hangars inside Mountains, which where used during Warsaw pact times to store all type of weapon systems and ammo...so I assume Russia will have such bases as well and you with your satellite imagery will not find them...and god knows what is inside them

ı love this guy and his obsession of remaining russian tanks

Regarding the 800 T-62 being modernized is not accurate, the original source said they were going to modernized 800 tanks from the storage, including T-62, the translation was Just wrong.

How many "really old tanks" that have been in storage for ever, are actually good ? Its the engines that may be quite difficult to get going... its going to be far easier to refurbish the armour and guns on a running tank given its had the engine kept running, and various equipment updated,, than to transplant a working engine and various updates into a tank that is in long term storage ...

Fantastic analysis once again! Well done...thanks for sharing!

Thanks! For your satellite picture fund.

Great video! Thanks for the update! Can't wait for the next

Wow. That's an amazing amount of effort! Thanks for the great report and analysis.

Brilliant analysis as usual my friend, you're one of the few most rational, most accurate and most consistent military content makers around mate, well done!!

Outstanding (and generous) work. Thank you

In the plant showing the upgrade of "800 T62" also shows them upgrading T80B its not only T62 and they will be done in like a year

@r200ti

Жыл бұрын

yeh but thats what the western media need us to think - Russia is desperate so keep on supporting project Ukraine. No mention Russia can crank out T-90's by the hundreds and bring thousands of T-72's upto Leo 2 matching specs.

Thank you Great work on this. God Bless Happy Easter.

Did you include the T-34’s there are lots of museums they could pull those back into service from!

Finally. Thank you! Can't wait to watch this 🙏 please make these a quarterly update if you can!

@elektrotehnik94

Жыл бұрын

Every 6 months seems fine 👍 You know how to manage finances regarding buying sattelite images better than we do, I'll trust it into your capable hands. ❤

Those +250 T-55 can be used as indirect Artillery if they still have enough 100 mm ammo or converted to the heavy infantry fighting vehicule BTR-T (Small brother of the terminator) or any other vehicule (engineering/logistics...).

@jamesmarkov9570

Жыл бұрын

Iran still produces that ammunition for some of its own tanks

@nihluxler1890

Жыл бұрын

Apparently, they still have around a million rounds of it.

@joseavila5747

Жыл бұрын

And are also a cheap counter for lightly armored vehicles

@zbigniewmalec4816

Жыл бұрын

​@@joseavila5747 they dont have fcs. Hard to hit a moving target without it.

@OrIoN1989

Жыл бұрын

T-55 is still dangerous if have modern optics.

Excellent. One more future factor will be the proprtional time/work it takes to get stored tanks ready. When reserves are called, the guys from the shop are first going to prepare those with the least problems before taking those with bigger maintenance needs. That means, the more you draw on reserves, the longer it will take to get a tank ready.

@sullivanrachael

Жыл бұрын

Restoration of old vehicles is one thing. But the vintage tanks are still vintage tanks. Older technology. I’m not saying old equals rubbish. It’s just, they need modern thermal imagers and communications to be more effective. Or maybe Russia is just playing a numbers game and doesn’t care about technical effectiveness.

@MrRjizz

9 ай бұрын

@@sullivanrachael installing new thermals isnt that much of work. they been doing 20-30 t62's a month, they have also ramped up tank productions 60 t-90's were made last year and 80 have been made this year so far

Amazing work, thanks for all that time and sharing your findings.

Yes, this is what I have been waiting for. Thank you Covert Cabal!

Thank you for the effort, work and time you put into preparation of your videos. I am completely amazed! You're awesome

Amazing work! To be fair, it's pretty hard to tell the condition of a tank from any image, not just satellite. Decent paint doesn't mean decent mechanical condition. I'm sure they don't completely disassemble and reseal every engine. I can only imagine how many "refurbished" tanks roll out with massive oil leaks and a note taped to the inside to top up the fluid every 100km hahaha.

"I tasked a satellite..." that is an awesome thing to be able to say.

Can you make video on how many tank Great nation of Wadiya have? President prime minister general Aladeen says 50000 but it's little hard to believe.

@ChucksSEADnDEAD

Жыл бұрын

It's actually 20,000 but 10,000 are in very Aladeen state.

@kurousagi8155

Жыл бұрын

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD very Aladeen or just Aladeen?

Love the detail and dedication for the topic especially from one person doing all of this research

That's the problem of making conclusions from space photos. My father and my two uncles served in Soviet army. They have told me that back then at least a third of stored tanks would never move ever ever, and that was like 35-40 years ago.

Amazing work, thank you for your effort!

Dude your research on this is incredible. Hats off to you sir.. subbed and liked...

OMG,this guy can give oryx a run for their money.A lot of respect for the work you put in @ Covert Cabal.

So these numbers assume that the garages actually have tanks in them. That’s the smart thing to do but also it’s possible that it an overcount.

Well, six months later now. Time for the update!

Amazing job, couldn't imagine the work to do this, well done sir

Bloody hell mate you are doing more research than most European national armies are doing! hahaha Keep it up buddy.

@elektrotehnik94

Жыл бұрын

Most EU national armies are small - that's why we share (a lot of) intelligence NATO-wide. 🏆

One theory as to why the T80s haven't moved much is that because they have gasoline engines, while most other Soviet/Russian vehicles have diesel engines, including most of their military trucks and vans. I seem to recall seeing somewhere that most of the T80s were in the Artic units as the gas turbine engines handled the extreme conditions a little better. Don't quote me though.

Appreciate the work you did putting the numbers together

thank you for going through the effort to do this the tedious and expensive way so that we can get the best information possible

U do a wonderful job man! I absolutely LOVE the theme music you chose and look 4ward 2 every single new vid u put out. TY. Seriously!

Thanks for the thorough research. Appreciate you buying the satpics. For us.

Very impressive video & underlying due diligence. Respect! Thanks.

This is a top notch breakdown of the details. Very professional ❤

Fantastic work! really appreciate your effort! Have shared with my friends.

Giving a like for a ton of effort-good on you. My understanding tho is many tanks need parts that aren’t available, which makes some % not usable.

Amazing video. I can't believe the amount of effort you put into this! Holy cow, you sir, are a legend. I'm here from Ryan McBeth's community post shouting this video out btw.

Really appreciate your seriously dedicated work on this. I did a really rough back-of-the-envelope estimate, and made it about 70-80% of your number... 2 years seems a reasonable estimate of the theoretical supply of Russian MBTs. However, given the current loss-rate, it's unlikely that Russia can refurbish tanks fast enough to keep a constant number of tanks on the front line. From public sources, I estimate they can bring about 30-40 a month from storage to the front line. That means a net loss of MBTs of perhaps 80-100 a month (assuming Oryx gets about 70-80% of actual losses). I know this is a gross estimate - do you have a better calculation?

@kurousagi8155

Жыл бұрын

I looked up the number of Russian losses of tanks as of anniversary on Oryx. Only counting destroyed and captured T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s (not including unknown variants), the total number of losses was 1,221 tanks. Of those, 528 were T-72B3s, T-72B3 obr 2016, T-80BVM, and T-90M tanks. According to Russian state media, Putin put out a statement that Russia will build and refurbish 1,600 tanks a year. Rounding up to 1,700 tanks, that is 567 tanks a year. So 1,221 tank losses with 567 replacements is 654 losses that need to come out of the reserve. Per the video, Russia has a maximum of usable 4,500 tanks in storage. So that is 7 years worth of tanks. However, this is the best case scenario for Russia. First, we don’t have a complete picture of all of Russia losses, Oryx is a low estimate and the Oryx team estimates they miss 30% of losses. Second, “refurbishing” tanks might mean to make old tanks operational again and have nothing to do with modernizing an old tank, thus the Russian active duty tank force could be notably smaller than prewar. Lastly, there are no estimate figures in the public domain for the number of damaged tanks that Russia recovers from the battlefield requiring factory repair. For that last point, there could be a huge number of damaged Russian tanks that need to be replaced while they are being repaired. For example, in Iraq the Americans had 530 damaged tanks from March 2003-Dec 2006 to 17 Abrams destroyed from March 2003-March 2005. While the Russians do face a more destructive combat environment with more artillery and ATGMs, the number of tanks requiring factory repair should not be discounted as insignificant.

@user-qn3xu5ee3t

Жыл бұрын

Oryxx migh have 120% of the losses, tbh

@MrNicoJac

Жыл бұрын

Does your Oryx estimate include tanks lost by the Ukrainians? I mean, _most_ of Russian tank losses were actually abandoned, rather than destroyed, right? Presumably, the Ukrainians are more motivated to die than run, especially compared to the Russians, but undoubtedly Russia must have captured _some_ Ukrainian tanks that were abandoned, too, over the course of the war. Might those numbers be high enough to postpone the point where Russia is unable to refurbish old tanks at the speed required to keep as many armored divisions in the field? (and, if First Guard Tanks or whatever got mostly destroyed, would Russia even want to fill it with fresh conscripts and give them new tanks, or would they just field fewer tanks actively, going forward?) Sorry to be so nitpicky on your methodology - overall it sounds okay :)

@tomk3732

Жыл бұрын

Western sources estimated at least 600 tanks from storage. Actual number is probably higher. So at least 50 tanks per month. They also estimated at least 250 new tanks per year. These are bottom of the bottom numbers.

@gareththompson2708

Жыл бұрын

@@user-qn3xu5ee3t Oryx is constantly checking that they haven't double counted any vehicles, and eliminating any that they find from their count. The reason that you'll see their loss counts go down every once in a while is because they found a double count or two in the last check. So It's pretty safe to say that very few of the tanks they have listed are double counts at any given time. In fact the Oryx count is almost certainly an underestimate. I seriously doubt that most tanks that get knocked out get photographed and uploaded to social media.

Wow, truly love your dedication to this subject and getting the answers

Amazing insightful research work. Thank you

Dang. You put a lot of effort into this video...lol. Back in my military days I took a course on reading satellite imagery. It was pretty cool...Mostly... Obviously we couldn't use the internet, but I remember how big of a pain in the butt it was to have to count and identify things using the goofy goggles-on-legs contraption we were issued. Man, what a pain...lol Good job, especially with regard to how thoroughly you looked for answers.

Your dedication is crazy, thank you so much for the interesting content

Really impressive job! But I think the real values are known even more exactly by US, using really good quality satellite images and a lot of trained personnel. Plus a lot of time lapse / "historical" images taken through the years. I do respect your invested amount of work. Keep it up and good health!

@grobbs666

Жыл бұрын

Well I hope so! Billions of dollars in budget and unlimited access to the most advanced and highest resolution satellites better produce results! I'd lose all faith in my country if some dude with a mobile game sponsor for a budget can come up with better results!!!

@andrew9371

Жыл бұрын

with how corrupt russian society is it wouldent be hard to pay a general or two a few thousand bucks to disclose their readiness levels and equipment counts obviously we wouldent ever really know but im sure the CIA has a few russians on payroll to get the information we need to measure russia's military capabilities

@buttyboy100

Жыл бұрын

The Pentagon is happy to piss tax dollars up against the wall to achieve inferior results to a civilian project. It's what the Pentagon does best in order to keep the US industrial/military complex producing obscene profits. Never before in history has so much been spent to achieve so little. For example, when was the US on the winning side in a war? I mean a clear win, 1945 style, not stalemate, defeat, on going chaos or the creation of an even bigger threat as the result of a military adventure? Answers on a postcard please. A very small one should suffice.

Remember the storage & repair bases may use other tanks to scavenge parts to make other tanks work so that can screw up those numbers.

@ctdesing

Жыл бұрын

because they don't produce those parts? lol

@LS-jv9hp

9 ай бұрын

@@ctdesing not to the level to outfit 1000+ of tanks in a short time period all the while supporting the thousand plus tanks in theature.

@Comm0ut

8 ай бұрын

@@ctdesing You obviously never worked on military equipment or major civilian fleet maintenance so why do you permit yourself an opinion? Cannibalization has always been key to buffering supply issues. That's why tank recovery is critical to sustaining combat forces. Unless a vehicle or system is k-killed it's either repairable or an organ donor. The idea that all new parts for everything would remain in production after decades of Russian economic neglect, oligarch looting etc and selling off equipment is absurd. Ukraine was the heart of USSR manufacturing. There is no more USSR, no more Warsaw Pact, and Putinist Russia has a lower GDP than California.

Instantly subbed, fantastically well done video

I just don't think the pentagon has more up-to-date information than you've just given us Please don't go crazy counting tanks Absolutely fantastic work

@cenccenc946

Жыл бұрын

I don't think the russians have a more up-to-date estimate either. 🤣

@Ganiscol

Жыл бұрын

Well, the Pentagon has it much, much easier. They dont have to shop around for half decent sat images, they got the best on hand and the only common issue is overcast. But they just keep looking until its clear. Which makes his effort command even more respect!

@SamtheIrishexan

Жыл бұрын

The pentagon has live feeds anywhere in the world lol, with resolutions to where they can tell how many tanks may be serviceable. I have no doubt Ukraine has access to this info, and will probably and hopefully have access to those satellites before performing their counter attack. 10km deep and they Cann roll up the Russians.

@MrCantStopTheRobot

Жыл бұрын

They probably have higher resolution cameras and more consistent coverage, catching cloudbreaks more often. This would aid positive identification as long as they assign enough Privates / Agents.

@fredferkel9604

Жыл бұрын

@@Ganiscol also an army of russians keen on making some bucks:)

This is peak research and reporting, well done, I hope this does well enough to cover the cost of the satellite images.

@Contractor48

Жыл бұрын

One thing this guy misses is that the Russian and Ukrainian army recaptures the tanks and armored vehicles damaged in the battlefield and repair and reuse them. So the number of destroyed is not accurate where it has counted the same tank as destroyed multiple times.

@jayhill2193

Жыл бұрын

​@@Contractor48 I think that perticular website differentiates between destroyed and abandoned/captured, making it possible to double count the latter but not the former.

@SimoN-vf8ps

Жыл бұрын

@@jayhill2193 Oryx is not a reliable source.Oryx has been caught lying many times. It suggest 3:1 to one loss of armor in favour of Ukraine.Something impossible with the amount of mass graves of Ukrainian military.

@grobbs666

Жыл бұрын

@@Contractor48 he doesn't count combat losses. He just uses Oryx number who does that. Maybe Oryx is wrong and counts duplicates, and maybe there is many, many destroyed Russian vehicles that were never taken pictures of so Oryx couldn't count them. The point is that Oryx is the best we have. If you have actually specific proof Oryx is wrong... then show it! Tell him! He works hard at making sure his number is close as it can be. He publicly states when a duplicate is found and deletes it. If you know a source that's better established and has facts and proof to back up claims... let me know! Otherwise, all complaints about Oryx just reveal you're own bias, shows you are unable to rationally judge the situation, and should seriously take a look at their decision making ability

Absolutely amazing detail and research you earned a follow my friend. It amazes me why they even have t-54/55s t62s t64 even in storage. That would be like us having m60s and m48s in storage in such numbers that would suggest we’d plan on using them again.

@lance3540

Жыл бұрын

We do

@lance3540

Жыл бұрын

Sierra army depot has hundreds of them in storage in many varieties m60 m60a1 m60a2 and even m60a3

@KolyaNickD

Жыл бұрын

Just need to think how they would be used. Most likely as self propelled artillery or as a secondary line of defence along quieter parts of the contact line. It forces your opponent to use their own tanks and bring atgm crews for any breakthroughs, which means that resource isn't available somewhere else and increases the pressure on them. Of course you would use them in some way if you could - ukraine is doing the same thing

Amazing and informative video, I really appreciate the hours and skills you commit to providing facts and information to the rest of us, Thank you!

Excellent update. Can't get over how much work you put into this. Congratulations! Something to keep in mind when thinking about rates of repair and refurbishment is that Russians will have been prioritizing the easiest and quickest to fix tanks to pull out of storage, so as to get them into service as quickly as possible. Going forward, it will get more and more challenging, time consuming and expensive to refurbish each additional tank. Availability of new parts will dry up due to sanctions, and of salvaged parts as the pool of remaining tanks is depleted.

@CovertCabal

Жыл бұрын

That's a good point! I've seen many people asking why Russia is restoring T-62s if they have so many T-72s available. I think you answer that pretty well!

@jiminverness

Жыл бұрын

That's right, the better tanks will get harder and harder to mobilize, and as the tank demographic gets older while Ukraine's tanks get newer, the Russian tanks should should get easier and easier to neutralize.

@amacca2085

Жыл бұрын

Well it depends doesn’t it they will have to find another way I mean they have they resources maybe just not the know how at the moment sanction hurt in the mean time but they have a lot of the stuff they in country depends how far the relationship with China goes

@Valhura77

Жыл бұрын

I think at this stage Sanctions have little effect. Russia just buys what it needs from China or has actively started producing what it needs, it may not be to the same standard, but a tank with slightly worse "insert part" is better than no tank and if its new tanks surely still better than the majority of old junk Ukraine are receiving like the leopard 1s

What a tremendous amount of work you put into this topic. It is unparalleled anywhere on the English speaking internet. Keep up the great videos.

THANK YOU for doing this research dude

Would be interesting to do a similar comparison with US tank stocks.

One our so so neighbor in Czechoslovak Group-Excalibur said, rebuild old rusty T-72 to excellent quality ready to fight(from T-72M/T72Ural to T-72Avanger) is more time demanding than making new tank.

@tomk3732

Жыл бұрын

Yes, correct, as they take tank apart piece by piece. Upgrade and then reassemble. Russians do not do such deep mods.

@SCH292

Жыл бұрын

Russian Tank fan boys and Russian cock suckers all have this sort of mind set. They all seem to be believe that it's super fast to refurbish, easy to refurbish and super fast to "upgrade" the older tanks ASAP. Yep. They believe that you can drag in that old ass tank to the shop on Monday and have it ready by Friday.

I gain the impression that you open the hatch and there is a foot of water in there you move to the next one. And if the engine rotates then they take it in for repair? The buildings might be full of new spare parts?

Excellent work !!!!! James.

It's still fascinates me how a single individual can just go I would like a satellite here to take pictures of this location. And they'll just drop a number. And if you can pay it it'll happen. What strange times we live in.

Does comparing questionable tanks in images with/without snow help glean any insight for edge cases in the count? (Like the same items but before and after snowfall/melts etc)

Thank you so much Cabal for all your work. I wish you the best. God bless you. 🎉

I'm not particularly interested in military and weaponry but your videos are on a different level. Simply phenomenal shit👏👏👏