How does our Climate System Evolve as the AMOC Shuts Down?

Ғылым және технология

In my next to last video (not the Newton one:) I talked about the profound slowdown of Antarctica Bottom Water (AABW) recharge, weakening the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) system of the global oceans.
In this video I revisit the key peer-reviewed scientific papers of Antarctica changes, and then expand this to additional research on the Southern Hemisphere Meridional Overturning Circulation, and then connect it to the northern hemispheric AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation).
I ask the simple question: how does the system change when the AMOC shuts down?
We don’t have all the answers, but we have some. Essentially the Northern regions go into a deep freeze (coastal Norway drops 20C), sea ice extends to Ireland, the tropics heat up a huge amount, the Walker Circulation strengthens, so we lose El Niño’s and get many more La Niña’s.
Everything changes, and we have trouble growing enough food for the planet. Reference 15 is the key paper: if you read only one this is the one!!
Links:
1) Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes: www.nature.com/articles/s4155...
2) Recent reduced abyssal overturning and ventilation in the Australian Antarctic Basin: www.nature.com/articles/s4155...
3) Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century: www.nature.com/articles/s4155...
4) Large-scale drivers of the exceptionally low winter Antarctic sea ice extent in 2023: www.researchgate.net/publicat...
5) Impacts of recent Antarctic Sea-Ice Extremes: agu.confex.com/agu/OSM24/meet...
6) Observational Evidence for a Regime Shift in Summer Antarctic Sea Ice: journals.ametsoc.org/download...
7) Thermohaline circulation: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermoh...
8) The Global Conveyor Belt: oceanservice.noaa.gov/educati...
9) The Thermohaline Ocean Circulation
A Brief Fact Sheet - by Stefan Rahmstorf: www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/th...
10) Thermohaline Ocean Circulation: www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Pu...
11) Slowdown of the Motion of the Ocean: climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-...
12) Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean www.nature.com/articles/s4324...
13) Southern Ocean overturning circulation: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Souther...
14)The weakening AMOC under extreme climate change: link.springer.com/content/pdf...
15) Interbasin and interhemispheric impacts of a collapsed Atlantic Overturning Circulation:
www.researchgate.net/profile/...
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

Пікірлер: 170

  • @PaulHBeckwith
    @PaulHBeckwith2 ай бұрын

    In my next to last video (not the Newton one:) I talked about the profound slowdown of Antarctica Bottom Water (AABW) recharge, weakening the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) system of the global oceans. In this video I revisit the key peer-reviewed scientific papers of Antarctica changes, and then expand this to additional research on the Southern Hemisphere Meridional Overturning Circulation, and then connect it to the northern hemispheric AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation). I ask the simple question: how does the system change when the AMOC shuts down? We don’t have all the answers, but we have some. Essentially the Northern regions go into a deep freeze (coastal Norway drops 20C), sea ice extends to Ireland, the tropics heat up a huge amount, the Walker Circulation strengthens, so we lose El Niño’s and get many more La Niña’s. Everything changes, and we have trouble growing enough food for the planet. Reference 15 is the key paper: if you read only one this is the one!! Links: 1) Slowdown of Antarctic Bottom Water export driven by climatic wind and sea-ice changes: www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01695-4.pdf 2) Recent reduced abyssal overturning and ventilation in the Australian Antarctic Basin: www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01667-8.pdf 3) Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century: www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf 4) Large-scale drivers of the exceptionally low winter Antarctic sea ice extent in 2023: www.researchgate.net/publication/378403026_Large-scale_drivers_of_the_exceptionally_low_winter_Antarctic_sea_ice_extent_in_2023 5) Impacts of recent Antarctic Sea-Ice Extremes: agu.confex.com/agu/OSM24/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1485667 6) Observational Evidence for a Regime Shift in Summer Antarctic Sea Ice: journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/clim/37/7/JCLI-D-23-0479.1.pdf 7) Thermohaline circulation: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation 8) The Global Conveyor Belt: oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/tutorial_currents/05conveyor2.html 9) The Thermohaline Ocean Circulation A Brief Fact Sheet - by Stefan Rahmstorf: www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/thc_fact_sheet.html 10) Thermohaline Ocean Circulation: www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Book_chapters/rahmstorf_eqs_2006.pdf 11) Slowdown of the Motion of the Ocean: climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3266/slowdown-of-the-motion-of-the-ocean/ 12) Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00727-3.pdf 13) Southern Ocean overturning circulation: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Ocean_overturning_circulation 14)The weakening AMOC under extreme climate change: link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-023-06957-7.pdf 15) Interbasin and interhemispheric impacts of a collapsed Atlantic Overturning Circulation: www.researchgate.net/profile/Andrea-Taschetto/publication/361134395_Interbasin_and_interhemispheric_impacts_of_a_collapsed_Atlantic_Overturning_Circulation/links/633621dc76e39959d6857360/Interbasin-and-interhemispheric-impacts-of-a-collapsed-Atlantic-Overturning-Circulation.pdf?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6Il9kaXJlY3QiLCJwYWdlIjoicHVibGljYXRpb25Eb3dubG9hZCIsInByZXZpb3VzUGFnZSI6Il9kaXJlY3QifX0 Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos joining the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

  • @robertforsythe3280

    @robertforsythe3280

    2 ай бұрын

    We all know what concerns you most. I might want to keep tabs of the number of views you obtain as time goes by. My Focus is on Thwaites as well as the weather patterns that are changing, like Panama and its water shortage. How fast will this active change take to affect all the planets Biomass and species. How many human lifetimes will it take to happen?

  • @pascalblackmore8098

    @pascalblackmore8098

    2 ай бұрын

    *A*nt *A*rctic Bottom Water AABW. *A*rctic Bottom Water ABW.

  • @OpenToInfo

    @OpenToInfo

    2 ай бұрын

    ​ @robertforsythe3280 When and how fast is a socio-psychological framing that is particularly endemic to the US' TV induced culture and its constraining of 'common sense' to what can involve a 20 minute attention span (plus commercials). Also, while view numbers are relevant, they are also irrelevant. Physics does not care if we are watching or not. It simply dances with what we do …and in the case of the climate system, this is - like the climate models - sans tipping points, also what we did. 2014 and the collapse of the AABW recharging is a tipping point, passed. The common sense I feel is relevant acknowledges that, by socio-psychological convention, a thirty year running average. I add to that a conservative 20 year lag due to the system’s resiliency concerning perturbation. This AABW tipping point was not even a known when “After the Warming” was produced for the 1992 COP in Rio. That docu-drama (available on KZread) speculated that this deep water data would not respond to anticipated [common sense] changes in human behavior for at least 50 years after a concerted effort to decrease emissions started. In the “After the Warming” production, significant shifts (emissions declining choices) did not start until around 2000. Today, in 2024, it remains our policies to have emissions yet increasing. The US’s 2022 IRA law includes exemptions for fossil fuel companies. “Common sense”/propaganda/clever wordsmithing that allows emission exemptions enacted in our 1964 Clean Air Act, pre-qualify fossil fuel companies for 100% of both ‘clean’ hydrogen tax credits in the six pages of the IRA law that relate to hydrogen. This occurs when these fuel companies decide to call themselves energy companies. Read the nefarious snookering and weep. @PaulHBeckwith, this appreciated “Dead Mother” video lead to an ‘interesting’ weekend for me. Like 2000 is now understood to be when the Greenland Ice Sheet irreversible tipped, 2014 is now a date I can state as “common sense” to be the year the AMOC irreversible shutdown; the Gulf Stream shifted to a more directly easterly surface current. (I am suspicious that the plausible southern shift in the northern sea ice extent mentioned in one of the papers is based on dated assumptions of climatic conditions that were normative to the Holocene.) =)

  • @HoserEh82

    @HoserEh82

    Ай бұрын

    @@OpenToInfo After stumbling across the potential AMOC collapse from my other interest (younger Dryas event) a month ago, I read a multitude of papers while getting a translation from those of Pauls education, I have come to the uneducated conclusion that you sir have reached as well. From what I can understand ( I am passionate but not trained in any scientific field) that the AMOC started its collapse roughly 2015, I am looking for more papers on the subject to confirm or rather refute my assumption, but there seems to be a bias towards IPCC modeling and thinking. I am hoping for more science to be done on the subject as the results would be massive for us and our children.

  • @mathematiknet

    @mathematiknet

    Ай бұрын

    At the moment the AMOC is cooling but the arctic and greenland ice are melting? This is a contradiction: de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:Amoc-index.svg

  • @solarwind907
    @solarwind9072 ай бұрын

    Paul, I was one of the ones that did not care about your clutter. However, I’m going to try to use you as an inspiration to clean up my messes. I’ll need a lot more than four hours! Maybe it will help keep me sane, in this insane world. Thank you again,

  • @nicolatesla5786

    @nicolatesla5786

    2 ай бұрын

    Scientist are not about being being a beet freak lol

  • @andyh9381

    @andyh9381

    2 ай бұрын

    I always thought he did it intentionally as an allegory for how messy the world has gotten

  • @walkerdb84

    @walkerdb84

    2 ай бұрын

    Most of the time I just listen to these videos.... I treat it more like a podcast just because I have other things going I can't always stop to watch videos. Keep up the good work!

  • @nancylaplaca

    @nancylaplaca

    2 ай бұрын

    Me too! I have a messy office - too much information and too much to do to stop the utilities from destroying our future…

  • @amcreative3784

    @amcreative3784

    2 ай бұрын

    Solarwind, Do you find that you can't find anything after you have cleaned up? I find that.

  • @juliebarks3195
    @juliebarks31952 ай бұрын

    Well done for cleaning your room Paul Have an award.

  • @jcgirton
    @jcgirton2 ай бұрын

    When I was growing up my mom had a plaque that said “An immaculate house is the sign of a misspent life.”

  • @nancylaplaca

    @nancylaplaca

    2 ай бұрын

    Love it!

  • @JackFrost008

    @JackFrost008

    25 күн бұрын

    :)

  • @Througe
    @Througe2 ай бұрын

    PB: "Civilization will collapse soon. We're all doomed." PB: "My son needs to have a tidy workspace when civilisation collapses."

  • @rdallas81

    @rdallas81

    2 ай бұрын

    There will be a lot of that. People will try to hang onto their lives- like Lots wife did in the bible when God destroyed Sadom and Ghomorah for their perverse wicked ways. People will be having parties as the water rises into their yards. Panick selling all coastal properties, great lakes will pour into the gulf.

  • @musicaismylovica

    @musicaismylovica

    2 ай бұрын

    Lmao

  • @Knifymoloko

    @Knifymoloko

    2 ай бұрын

    As modern amenities fade away, I'll be putting on my favorite playlist, smoking all my remaining ganja, then finally meditate alongside all the chaos, turmoil, and suffering as I accept what an interesting reality I was born into.

  • @solarwind907

    @solarwind907

    2 ай бұрын

    Real funny. You could’ve been a comedian on the titanic. Wait…, I guess you are!

  • @solarwind907

    @solarwind907

    2 ай бұрын

    @@Knifymoloko no, when the climate migrants come, starving and desperate, they will take whatever they want from you, including your ganja, leaving you to bleed out in peace if you’re lucky. Interesting times indeed.

  • @vernonbrechin4207
    @vernonbrechin42072 ай бұрын

    I have much more clutter. Congratulations on getting your background more organized.

  • @adrianoaxel1196
    @adrianoaxel11962 ай бұрын

    - Hey guys, temperatures keep rising, the whole biosphere is at risk, ice is melting faster everywhere, climate is out of control, humanity is in denial about this, burning more and more oil and gas and getting lost in stupid wars, and here is the latest detailed scientific data on this! - Yes yes, but first of all, your room is messy. .... humanity ❤

  • @peterjones4180

    @peterjones4180

    2 ай бұрын

    God you are gullible. Ice IS NOT melting faster everywhere. Antarctica has been COOLING for more than 35 years the last few years have have seen record cold there. The AMOC paper he is reading s SPECULATION not observed reality. They keep trotting this out every few years and it NEVER happens.

  • @JackFrost008

    @JackFrost008

    25 күн бұрын

    yea but it isn't "getting warmer" except for the natural season of spring and summer.

  • @adrianoaxel1196

    @adrianoaxel1196

    25 күн бұрын

    @@JackFrost008 Hi Jack, how are you? I would like to remind that "warmer" in therms of climate is different from "weather". It basically means "more energy in the system". The same way a swing with more energy will swing in both directions, we can expect a warmer climate to be producing more extreme weather events. It is possible to experience extreme cold seasons and also extreme heat, but whar matters is the global average and this number is going up all the time regardless of local weather phenonema suggesting otherwise. Right now, for example, multiple cities in the south of Brazil were completely destroyed by unpreceedeny rain, whereas states more to the north of the country are dry and warm. For curiosity, google or search on YT for "chuva RS Brasil 2024"

  • @user-yv6vx
    @user-yv6vx2 ай бұрын

    I'd love to see a video from you about what to expect the year we have a Blue Ocean event and the years immediately following. Is it independently civilization ending?

  • @Knifymoloko

    @Knifymoloko

    2 ай бұрын

    What a fun suggestion 😉

  • @WoodstockG54
    @WoodstockG542 ай бұрын

    Now I should do mine.

  • @gehwissen3975

    @gehwissen3975

    2 ай бұрын

    Upload a video. The petty church will decide.... 😂

  • @christopherspavins9250
    @christopherspavins92502 ай бұрын

    I'll miss your pile of textbooks. Noticed Ruddiman's, Earths Climate : Past and Future 2nd edition. I particularly enjoyed reading the chapters on weathering and oceans, and I should get his 3rd edition. He also has a lecture on U tube about agriculture, and it's importance to climate change ongoing back over 24k years.

  • @Pallasathena-hv4kp
    @Pallasathena-hv4kp2 ай бұрын

    As long as the space you live in suits your mental health and you are happy and efficient in your actions, I wouldn’t worry too much about it. Sure, there was clutter, but I’ve stayed for the quality content. Good work! 👍

  • @Corrie-fd9ww
    @Corrie-fd9ww2 ай бұрын

    This video is epically important, thank you Paul!

  • @kbmblizz1940
    @kbmblizz19402 ай бұрын

    A messy desk is one sign of genius according to science

  • @robbenfelix

    @robbenfelix

    2 ай бұрын

    I've heard something similar but in this form: "A clean work-desk is a sign of mental illness."

  • @MrGman6897

    @MrGman6897

    2 ай бұрын

    ‘If a cluttered desk is a sign of a cluttered mind… what then of an empty desk?’

  • @diversie509

    @diversie509

    Ай бұрын

    Whoever said that never saw my office.

  • @frankboff1260

    @frankboff1260

    2 күн бұрын

    Can’t believe people are rude enough to mention it. It’s none of anyone’s business. And btw Paul you could have just put up a green screen and changed the background. lol

  • @basilbrushbooshieboosh5302
    @basilbrushbooshieboosh53022 ай бұрын

    Excellent ep. Paul

  • @dougdelane3642
    @dougdelane36422 ай бұрын

    Paul you're awesome keep doing what you're doing.

  • @musicaismylovica
    @musicaismylovica2 ай бұрын

    I never minded your background either. At first I noticed it when I very first discovered you, but it’s actually been like….”Wow that guy doesn’t care at all about what other people think of him” in like a positive way. Not that you shouldn’t tidy up, it’s good you did! I just always thought you were the stereotypical frazzled Einstein type haha I hope you take all this as a compliment I mean it in the best way. I’m messy too haha ADHD be like

  • @jnyc
    @jnyc2 ай бұрын

    Not only is the Greenland ice melt freshening the North Atlantic, but the significant increase in atmospheric water and shift in weather patterns off the East Coast of America that are sending tremendous amounts of fresh water rainfall towards the UK. It’s easily seen on global weather maps. And I’ve lived in the NYC metro area my whole life (50 years) and in the last maybe 8 years, when it rains it’s much more torrential than it was for most of my life. Things have absolutely changed.

  • @investigator2016

    @investigator2016

    2 ай бұрын

    Upstate Ny here. The snowfall for the last 8 years has dwindled every year significantly. This year our winter consisted of three weeks of sticking snow. This is a big change from 5 to 6 months of consistant snow on the ground. This has been the warmest winter that i can remember.

  • @wendydelisse9778
    @wendydelisse97782 ай бұрын

    In order to imagine a total shutdown of the AMOC on a city like Copenhagen to the east of the North Sea, one merely has to look to Canadian seaside towns facing westward toward Hudson Bay at about the same geographical latitude. Hudson Bay is almost isolated from the rest of the world ocean, and therefore sees little influence from the AMOC. For Copenhagen, a good analog is therefore the Quebec seaside town of Fort George. Some 20 years ago, Fort George in western Quebec had an almost indisputably continental climate, due to Hudson Bay being frozen over during much of the year. A fictional shutdown of the AMOC 20 years ago would have turned Copenhagen into another agriculturally destitute location like Fort George was then. Now in the mid-2020s, the ocean in the southern Hudson Bay just to the west of Fort George has begun to show notable resistance to being close to completely being frozen over in months other than February and March and April, meaning that the North Sea would likely also likely resist being almost completely frozen over except during those 3 month. Dairy cows near Copenhagen would at least have a chance to survive in the event of an AMOC shutdown. In the next 20 years, global warming will result in Fort George transitioning into a partially maritime climate, with much higher temperature in March, due to the seawater to the west of Fort George then being mostly unfrozen even in the month of March, and therefore being able to moderate the temperature of frigid near polar cold air masses coming in to Fort George from the northwest even during the month of March. By analogy, an AMOC shutdown 20 years in the future will not be the near apocalyptic disaster that would have happened in northwestern Europe that would have happened if an AMOC shutdown would have happened 20 years ago. In the meantime, northwestern Europe has to hope that the AMOC does not shut down during the next 20 years. People in Europe to the east of the North Sea need merely look to the climate of Fort George in Quebec in order to get a reasonable idea what a full AMOC shutdown would do to regional agriculture near the North Sea.

  • @Edo9River
    @Edo9River2 ай бұрын

    Yeah, I now realize the tension from that previous clutter. Good job 😢😊😊

  • @eattheright
    @eattheright2 ай бұрын

    There was no need to clean up, but hey. We're here for the information. 😂

  • @karencrecco2922
    @karencrecco29222 ай бұрын

    What do they expect from a scientist?🤣🤣🤣 I noticed it, but chalked it up to your priorities. So glad you are organizing, however. You will feel better.🤣🤣🤣Gotta love you, Paul! ☺️

  • @VideoconferencingUSA
    @VideoconferencingUSA2 ай бұрын

    Nice job with the clean up. We all want to see you do well with these videos.

  • @JCGErvin
    @JCGErvin2 ай бұрын

    Beautiful office! 😁 And I enjoyed it messy, too

  • @amohican8379
    @amohican83792 ай бұрын

    It's a beautiful room. I also noticed the mess and cleanup and found both charming .

  • @19jepoy86
    @19jepoy862 ай бұрын

    On my desk it's not the clutter I dislike but the dust that settles on everything

  • @javiersantos4385
    @javiersantos43852 ай бұрын

    Thank you! for clearing the space, it was making me anxious

  • @kti5682

    @kti5682

    2 ай бұрын

    The toppled over shelf thingy was really annoying.

  • @graemeguy341
    @graemeguy3412 ай бұрын

    Thx Paul for walking us through the High brow science. 10 bucks coming your way. I'm not convinced the predicted ice sheets extending across to Europe makes sense. You've got Arctic amplification of the air temperature, massive heat accumulation at all levels within the oceans and a climate that is getting rapidly warmer from combined ghg emissions and earth energy imbalance. Where is the cold going to come from? Yes the increasing fresher water at the surface will be more prone to freezing but how does that occur in an increasingly warm atmosphere and oceansphere where the albedo effect is reducing constantly. Can you clarify this? Thx in advance

  • @petrlonsky2332
    @petrlonsky23322 ай бұрын

    Thank you very much for this video. I think really important. Most have seen cited film about ice age in New York or in London in another version. I think such prognosis are very important. Hope at least estate owners will realize changes what will happen to prices for their parcels and got finally panic about climate change. 😮😮

  • @lawrencetaylor4101
    @lawrencetaylor41012 ай бұрын

    I downloaded those papers and will read them later. Maybe the day after tomorrow?

  • @Zotar1
    @Zotar12 ай бұрын

    I liked the chaotic vibe from the mad Professor. lol

  • @UC-Love
    @UC-Love2 ай бұрын

    Most of us just enjoy the information you provide us.

  • @djmouseshadow4735
    @djmouseshadow47352 ай бұрын

    This is the most frightening video yet.

  • @larry785
    @larry7852 ай бұрын

    "The vortex changed direction around March 4th," reports Dr. Amy Butler, author of NOAA's Polar Vortex Blog. "It was a substantial reversal, reaching -20.5 m/s a few days ago, which puts it in the top 6 strongest such events since 1979."

  • @michaelschiessl8357
    @michaelschiessl83572 ай бұрын

    Paul I have always been here for what you say and speak to us about..I do know that alot of people were triggered by the clutter..I looks much better I'm working on mine as well..Many Thanks for all you do for us Paul

  • @davida.bishop4024

    @davida.bishop4024

    2 ай бұрын

    People are so dumb

  • @TheGary600
    @TheGary6002 ай бұрын

    Appreciate your work and analysis Mr Beckwith. Awesome insights to the state of the climate. Thank you!

  • @jrgenvansligtenhorst4640
    @jrgenvansligtenhorst46402 ай бұрын

    Hi Paul.Last week i wrote about you chaotic background and now i noticed that you already cleaned it up.Just as your work you did a fantastic job!I really apreciate it.I just was concerned about your wellbeing.Thanks for all your hard work and have a great day.

  • @texasrefugee7888

    @texasrefugee7888

    2 ай бұрын

    I think you're just intrusive and controlling

  • @rogermooijman1333

    @rogermooijman1333

    2 ай бұрын

    This must be a fake account with Paul’s wife behind it.

  • @dayofthejackyl

    @dayofthejackyl

    2 ай бұрын

    @@texasrefugee7888Texas is gonna collapse first.

  • @user-lw6qj1yn7h
    @user-lw6qj1yn7h2 ай бұрын

    I remember you used to have loads of beautiful plants

  • @destinyrae69
    @destinyrae692 ай бұрын

    A dirty desk is the sign of a busy mind is my mantra. The surroundings mean nothing, I appreciate your content. That clean office looks very nice too. 🎉

  • @dawnalbright
    @dawnalbright2 ай бұрын

    The part we see on camera is clean. Love it!

  • @lauraspruell865
    @lauraspruell8652 ай бұрын

    Your studio looks great! A contrast to previous back drops to your videos indicating a studious if disorganized method to your research. Appreciate your commentary on current research and findings regarding climate change.

  • @amckinstry2
    @amckinstry22 ай бұрын

    I think the simulations presented are missing an important point: the absorption of CO2 at depth. The current work shows atmospheric and ocean circulations, you need to include a full biogeochemical ocean or carbon model to really see what happens with AMOC shutdown. Essentially what I think you'd see is a drop-off of CO2 absorption by the oceans (which currently absorb half the CO2 rise, the rest staying in the atmosphere), so an acceleration in greenhouse warming. This would definitely accelerate us through remaining southern hemisphere tipping points (Amazonian drying and die-off, for example) - fast enough to undo the 3C/decade northern cooling? Also with a hi-res model you may see more detailed extreme storm effects. All that surface heat in the tropics should lead to more hurricanes forming, which should transport more heat northerly via the atmospheric route to compensate for lack of oceanic heat transport.

  • @andrewpaterson5192
    @andrewpaterson51922 ай бұрын

    I should do my office. The philosophical concept of the priority of personal actions is in play here. Save the planet or tidy the office? Tricky one!

  • @seidemsh
    @seidemsh2 ай бұрын

    Thank you for sharing this material. 🙏

  • @richdiana3663
    @richdiana36632 ай бұрын

    Paul, how about an update on Arctic methane being released at an ever accelerating rate. Keep up the good work. You are appreciated.

  • @pinkgarage
    @pinkgarage2 ай бұрын

    okay, 1st, now i have to clean out my stufF, your gonna make me look bad, lol, but seriously, looks nice but am more interested in your detailed summary. thank you Paul!

  • @basilbrushbooshieboosh5302
    @basilbrushbooshieboosh53022 ай бұрын

    Nice and loud Paul

  • @deniserosburg9663
    @deniserosburg96632 ай бұрын

    You no longer have the messy desk/office of an absent-minded professor. Fantastic!

  • @robbenfelix
    @robbenfelix2 ай бұрын

    "Honey! We broke the climate." had me laughing into my tea!

  • @juliandowen1621

    @juliandowen1621

    2 ай бұрын

    Whoops 😅

  • @reuireuiop0

    @reuireuiop0

    2 ай бұрын

    Honey, we shrunk the Arctic

  • @forcingclimateinfo7014
    @forcingclimateinfo70142 ай бұрын

    !!....Good paper to read, listen to. Thanks Paul!

  • @OrangeRoses6
    @OrangeRoses62 ай бұрын

    Oh no! Totally loved the messiness of it all, it's like a reflection of the chaos of the climate crisis! I guess the challenge is, how long would this new look last? Thanks for everything though! That's the important part! 😊

  • @Lorne.Mccuaig
    @Lorne.Mccuaig2 ай бұрын

    Good to hear that you are back in the harness when it comes to housekeeping. It's a tough slog, but it is rewarding. I'm betting that the watered cactus thinks so too. 🙂

  • @squeaker19694
    @squeaker196942 ай бұрын

    Loved your clutter because there were plants, books etc. Things I love. If your space were full of empty beer cans and sporting paraphernalia, that would look gross.

  • @climatebreak
    @climatebreak2 ай бұрын

    more reasons to transition away from fossil fuels sooner than later? if you get some direct sunlight through those windows you could have small solar panels in the window pane and connect them together to charge a 12 volt battery and output hundreds of watts of ac power with an inverter. would you consider adding solar to your scene?

  • @mamapretz
    @mamapretz2 ай бұрын

    Thank you for another important video 👏🏻 and for providing all the links too

  • @robertcartwright4374
    @robertcartwright43742 ай бұрын

    I'm guessing the acronym for Antarctic Bottom Water is AABW to differentiate it from Arctic Bottom Water.

  • @amcreative3784
    @amcreative37842 ай бұрын

    Funny Paul. I find as an artist that I am doing what the Swedes call a 'death cleaning 'especially after every Unit with study or major project. it is an attempt to regain the space after allowing yourself to spread out, allowing the enjoyment of the mess making when creating. Really appreciate you sharing your 'research finds' they are an invaluable resource. I am just building up the 'guts' to put something together. My version would be more like the 'beginners' guide to WTF is going on. I have been sharing with facebook friends in the hope of getting the message out there to others who can interpret and share. I think that has worked.

  • @johnthomasriley2741
    @johnthomasriley27412 ай бұрын

    West Antarctica is an archipelago. If the sea ice melts, it will look like the Philippines.

  • @Nehner

    @Nehner

    2 ай бұрын

    The average yearly temperature in antarctica is minus 32 degrees Celsius. What goofballs do believe that there is something melting.

  • @kennyrandall4538
    @kennyrandall45382 ай бұрын

    Good Stuff Paul. I will say that I think you are wrong on the "AABW" meaning "Antarctica". The two "A's" at the beginning are for "Ant" and "Arctic" the word is a combo meaning "opposite of north" or "opposite of Arctic." You can check the Entomology on Wikipedia for this info. Small thing, but it bugged me. Otherwise, all good. Keep it up.

  • @Jay...777
    @Jay...7772 ай бұрын

    Looks nice.

  • @andyh9381
    @andyh93812 ай бұрын

    I get that the ocean currents move slowly, but my intuition says if the AMOC slows/stops, it all stops. Still feels to me that for any given conveyor belt, if a part of it stops, it all stops. I get that it won't happen immediately but if parts aren't moving out of the way, where does anything move to? Unless it starts some new conveyor belt somewhere to alleviate the flow and pressure?

  • @mellowInventor

    @mellowInventor

    2 ай бұрын

    There might not be enough water for a circuit to generate, and just have placid, hot waters in the equatorial regions

  • @christopherstorey1125
    @christopherstorey11252 ай бұрын

    Hello! Thanks for this! I am wondering if these cooling projections have the expected warming from GHGs factored in; do you think so? If they don't, what do you think we might expect that interplay to look like?

  • @paxwallace8324
    @paxwallace83242 ай бұрын

    1st of all as a dyslexic ADD jazz pianist composer who's now 64 I think it's completely understandable your outward mess. Especially given the scientific insights you're living with on a daily basis. Regardless Your old buddy Guy seems to think that any cooling effect AMOC shut down will be mitigated by other factors. I could easily imagine the Climate literally spinning outa wack as the old stability goes through it's death throws. EG the Polar Vortex being permanent evicted from the actual North Pole and sideling south along the Greenland Ice Sheet until it sorta freezes out Europe for a while. I just can't imagine the horrible state of humanity regarding; food, water,and political stability, during that tremendous degree of destabilization.

  • @drewjackson987
    @drewjackson9872 ай бұрын

    Europe Would Be Buried In Snow If AMOC Shuts Down

  • @alexg1153
    @alexg11532 ай бұрын

    Congratulations once again.

  • @jessieadore
    @jessieadore2 ай бұрын

    I liked the book stacks :(

  • @sergioperezio5523
    @sergioperezio55232 ай бұрын

    Its frightening that geo politics is on fire also. It would be nice if the left and right could fullly focus on the environment.

  • @aztec8888
    @aztec88882 ай бұрын

    Bravo 🎉

  • @punditgi
    @punditgi2 ай бұрын

    Keep up your fine work. The office will take care of itself 😊

  • @GlobeHackers
    @GlobeHackers2 ай бұрын

    Hehe, that's cute; good cleaning job. I hope you feel better in your workspace now. :-) We are heading into uncharted territories. We won't prepare for it. We can't prepare for it. We have no clue how radically things will change.

  • @Jimabie
    @Jimabie2 ай бұрын

    By their way... nice chess clock!

  • @measterpool
    @measterpool2 ай бұрын

    When will shipping lanes in the artic become usable for shipping. What will hapoen to fishing industry?

  • @TheDoomWizard
    @TheDoomWizard2 ай бұрын

    Mind effed

  • @AH-gk9we
    @AH-gk9we2 ай бұрын

    So does warmer southern waters and high winds make for more and stronger hurricanes?

  • @user-ee9xd4gr2k
    @user-ee9xd4gr2k2 ай бұрын

    Your office is cleaned up…but now your professor status is in question. Real thinkers don’t clean up

  • @PrinceGeorge1
    @PrinceGeorge12 ай бұрын

    Nice presentation. Can you please tell how will a collapse of AMOC affect the climate in South Asia and Australia?

  • @grahambibby1895

    @grahambibby1895

    2 ай бұрын

    Bad

  • @bremensname6057
    @bremensname60572 ай бұрын

    Nooooo u buckled to the tidy people, now I gotta find another messy smart person to make comparisons to 😅

  • @oiseau21100
    @oiseau211002 ай бұрын

    How would you grow food in colder Europe and how would you grow food in warmer equatorial regions? Is there any way to revert Amoc halting? It seems driven by Arctic Warming and by icemelt...

  • @wendydelisse9778

    @wendydelisse9778

    2 ай бұрын

    For a colder Baltic Sea region in Europe, perhaps one or more Icelandic gardening hobbyists who might sometimes grow potatoes and peas from the previous year's seeds will have a type of pea or potato that is unusually reliable in a shorter growing season. Also, the Norwegian government has made attempts at creating cultivars that will grow in the Svalbard islands.

  • @wendydelisse9778

    @wendydelisse9778

    2 ай бұрын

    Regarding food calories from hotter tropical regions, where conditions become too warm for humans to plant rice, coconut palms and tapioca (cassava) can be options in those regions. In drier regions that become too hot for permanent human habitation, olive trees might be an option. Perennial plants, unlike rice, often require only irregular care from humans.

  • @idontthinkthatsphilosophy829
    @idontthinkthatsphilosophy8292 ай бұрын

    What would that northern hemisphere cooling do for global average temperatures?

  • @catseyeknows4168
    @catseyeknows41682 ай бұрын

    my room is a clutter mess and I love it, if someone breaks in they won’t know how to find anything to steal, lol

  • @georgewaters6424
    @georgewaters64242 ай бұрын

    I miss the clutter....

  • @geoff3ry
    @geoff3ry2 ай бұрын

    What ice ?

  • @pnwadventures2955
    @pnwadventures29552 ай бұрын

    Your office looks nice today

  • @scottflick5758
    @scottflick575816 күн бұрын

    No wonder my spidey-sence was tingling..

  • @carinwiseman4309
    @carinwiseman43092 ай бұрын

    I beg to differ. Antarctica would refer only to the continent. Antarctic would refer to that region, so I think they were correct.

  • @thomasmeester9798

    @thomasmeester9798

    2 ай бұрын

    I think the first A stands for Ant and the second for Arctic, making ABW Arctic bottom water

  • @davidwatson7604
    @davidwatson76042 ай бұрын

    Algo b-b-b-boost! For one day Plaza Del Rey Plaza Del Rey

  • @TheJgibbons
    @TheJgibbons2 ай бұрын

    lol about the room

  • @WTF00007
    @WTF000072 ай бұрын

    When is this likely to occur ?

  • @solarwind907

    @solarwind907

    2 ай бұрын

    Watch the video. That’s why he posts them.

  • @rdallas81

    @rdallas81

    2 ай бұрын

    Already happening

  • @alexandrabryden6143
    @alexandrabryden61432 ай бұрын

    Youre all tidied up 👍💚🎶💚

  • @ronaldturner4849
    @ronaldturner48492 ай бұрын

    There's a marvelous b&w Japanese movie from mid century titled Ikiru wherein a messy desk plays a central role in the story. If you haven't seen it, check it out.

  • @user-qd1zm6zm2m
    @user-qd1zm6zm2mАй бұрын

    We GOT 3 years !!!

  • @NickBrowning-lk1oj
    @NickBrowning-lk1oj2 ай бұрын

    I always kinda liked your jumbled office. Hehehe. But tidy is good too, especially for your own well being. Your Greta and appreciate allyo

  • @JackFrost008
    @JackFrost00825 күн бұрын

    It will get colder than it already is.

  • @didforlove
    @didforlove2 ай бұрын

    I think where already seen the climate change effects

  • @tiwiatg2186
    @tiwiatg21862 ай бұрын

    I've always noticed your background and I couldn't care less how you wish to arrange your living space 😄 highly appreciate your work btw 👍it's awesome, although the content is depressing

  • @johnm1030
    @johnm10302 ай бұрын

    Was that Trudeau peering in? Paul you’re not safe. Start stacking!😂

  • @henninghusum
    @henninghusum2 ай бұрын

    Clutter. Sometimes I manage to use the pomodoro technic like this: 30 minutes work, 5 minutes declutter, repeat

  • @Silks-
    @Silks-2 ай бұрын

    Imagine if, when you first started making your videos, the background was immaculate. As time went by the order and messiness of the room became more chaotic in line with the climate 😅

  • @Silks-

    @Silks-

    2 ай бұрын

    But I suppose you don't want to be recording videos partially submerged with a load of fire encroaching you as you talk

  • @Silks-

    @Silks-

    2 ай бұрын

    Talking with a snorkel on in 5 years

  • @lacha608

    @lacha608

    2 ай бұрын

    Talking through a snorkel would only work in a cartoon. Great image, though. If aliens ever stumble upon our artifacts they will be rolling their eyes at our barbaric foolishness...

  • @gregwilvert

    @gregwilvert

    2 ай бұрын

    Entropy

  • @independent9245
    @independent92452 ай бұрын

    😀😀😀💪💪💪👍👍👍

  • @thefishisdead
    @thefishisdead2 ай бұрын

    ...but I also loved the messyness in Your videos background.

  • @mjb5922
    @mjb59222 ай бұрын

    ArcticBottomWater ABW AntArcticBottomWater AABW

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