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Forecasting: Weighted Moving Averages, MAD

Moving Averages in Excel: • Moving Averages in Exc...
See Moving Averages, MAD, MSE, MAPE here:
• Forecasting: Moving Av...
This video tutorial covers
*Weighted Moving Averages
*Determining which forecasting model is better based on the Mean Absolute Deviation.

Пікірлер: 233

  • @shadowhalk225
    @shadowhalk2253 жыл бұрын

    Sir, I'm not exaggerating when I say you've saved my life. God bless you

  • @kingchisale4605

    @kingchisale4605

    Жыл бұрын

    Ndipo sukunama😂

  • @dafulegend5905

    @dafulegend5905

    Жыл бұрын

    I know this is old, but like because of this channel, I was basically able to get 3.0 with a terror prof. For more context, the professor grades infamously low, but I still managed to get a score of 3.0, which is around 85%, or a B - B+.

  • @philippalaribambilla8439

    @philippalaribambilla8439

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you sir, this is very interesting

  • @mehdirahan6943
    @mehdirahan69432 жыл бұрын

    If only professors could be as clear as this video as well as Joshua's other videos. Thank you so much sir!

  • @ivageorgieva2985

    @ivageorgieva2985

    9 ай бұрын

    Rightttt our professor literally makes it sound so much more difficult ..explaining such a simple thing for over 30 min when it can be shown for 5 minutes ..

  • @mehdirahan6943

    @mehdirahan6943

    9 ай бұрын

    @@ivageorgieva2985 It's also why I believe actual experience is worth way more than knowledge for the most part.

  • @issact5932
    @issact59326 жыл бұрын

    You are a better Professor than MY professor !!!! more clear and easy to understand!!! 100% GOOD for international students!

  • @connornicholas8628
    @connornicholas86284 жыл бұрын

    You have saved me! I've been stuck on a problem like this for hours!

  • @krisramirez7139
    @krisramirez71395 жыл бұрын

    Thank you! I was so confused by this in my textbook. You broke it down to where I can understand the material!

  • @kanhaythakore8136

    @kanhaythakore8136

    Жыл бұрын

    lode ka textbook mai galat diya hai sab loda bhenchod bakwaas hai

  • @fadzreenamyra7919
    @fadzreenamyra79192 жыл бұрын

    thank you sir, it took me 5 min to understand it clearly, u deserve everything in this world 😭🙌🏻

  • @apple_yt7122
    @apple_yt71222 ай бұрын

    Thank you. You literally explained something that my professor couldn't for 2 straight hours. Thanks a lot.

  • @Skiiandme
    @Skiiandme3 жыл бұрын

    Saved me 5 hours of reading a complicated book. Thanks!

  • @alehegnasmie6628
    @alehegnasmie66282 жыл бұрын

    Sir, I'm not exaggerating when I say you've saved my life. God bless you You Give me So much better than my teacher's explanation. Thanks! a lot

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    2 жыл бұрын

    Glad to help Alehegn.

  • @triciaeisaac
    @triciaeisaac3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you sir! Your videos are clear and I always leave smarter than when I first arrived!

  • @immaculatechelangat2729
    @immaculatechelangat2729 Жыл бұрын

    Now I can pass my exam! Phew... Thank you for this. Very clear

  • @P_sh9
    @P_sh97 ай бұрын

    Legit needed this vid. Thank you. If it wasn't for this vid I'd be stressed as hell.

  • @kaelynf12
    @kaelynf123 жыл бұрын

    this was very helpful before I had to take an exam. Thank you!

  • @twylahjanet
    @twylahjanet17 күн бұрын

    Awesome job of breaking it down!

  • @NaveenBali4
    @NaveenBali45 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for this simple and straightforward explanation. I have a question on when do we use MSE vs MAE for error calculation

  • @jonathancaicedo5105
    @jonathancaicedo51054 жыл бұрын

    Your videos are amazing and really easy to understand, do you have anything about Simple Linear Regression?

  • @AdamELclon
    @AdamELclon6 жыл бұрын

    well explained and very helpful, Thank you so much Joshua

  • @pagalhokya
    @pagalhokya2 жыл бұрын

    You're a legend! I wish my professor was like this :(

  • @muhammadtahakhan8388
    @muhammadtahakhan83885 жыл бұрын

    Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with α = 0.2 to develop a demand forecast for period 7. (Forecast for Period 1=10).

  • @nathaliyaminukshi8630
    @nathaliyaminukshi86303 жыл бұрын

    thank you for the explanation. this was soo easy to understand.

  • @mishellwadzanai92
    @mishellwadzanai92 Жыл бұрын

    thank you so much this was really helpful, it was loud and clear...

  • @anuragsrivastav2131
    @anuragsrivastav21316 жыл бұрын

    Hello Joshua,I would like to thank you for wonderful explanation.i have a question will the smaller value of m will give good forecast if so then how.

  • @gooddaniel8603
    @gooddaniel86037 жыл бұрын

    Very incredible, wish you include more topic in that video lecture

  • @PhrAntoine
    @PhrAntoine4 жыл бұрын

    The 4 weeks percentages were already convent to a percentage, that's why it adds up to 1. That's also why you divide the WMA by 5 for week 2. 3(x)/5 + 2(y)/5 = (3x+2y)/5 I think the important part to remember is to convert to percentages

  • @Rambowayne
    @Rambowayne6 жыл бұрын

    Man, good job. It was helpful.

  • @novagamer6198
    @novagamer61982 жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much I understand everything keep up the good work 👍

  • @adnandanisubhanallah8218
    @adnandanisubhanallah8218 Жыл бұрын

    i just fall in love with your method of explaining🙈🙈🙈

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much 😀

  • @ShinEKMG
    @ShinEKMG Жыл бұрын

    Very helpful video. This channel must be located by students.

  • @mohameddesouky4898
    @mohameddesouky48986 жыл бұрын

    Well Explained, if i have the Data and i should put the weight values how i can calculate them ! i just have Data for sales last year and want to use this method it's applicable and how ! thank you very much for your support

  • @hSep-or5sh
    @hSep-or5sh7 жыл бұрын

    thank you for this amazing explanations 👌

  • @md.yousufalamin6348
    @md.yousufalamin63483 жыл бұрын

    Thank you man tomorrow is my exam. It helped me. Great video.

  • @susah135
    @susah1357 жыл бұрын

    Can we using the method for seasonal data where the irregularity can be extreme? For example, can we know that next week the sales would be 60, which is very different than the rest of your data?

  • @tharmasilan.v335
    @tharmasilan.v335 Жыл бұрын

    This was very helpful. Thank you.

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    Glad it was helpful!

  • @alviandarif3220
    @alviandarif32204 жыл бұрын

    Thank you, that was useful for my study!

  • @bibekanandabhattacharjee952
    @bibekanandabhattacharjee9523 жыл бұрын

    That was very comprehensible. Like it.

  • @emanfahmi84
    @emanfahmi844 жыл бұрын

    Big thanks you are GREAT , VOICE, VERBAL , SMOOTH EXPLANATION, THANK YOU :)

  • @user-wh4ke3rd5u

    @user-wh4ke3rd5u

    3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you

  • @ntakirutimanaeric5819
    @ntakirutimanaeric58196 ай бұрын

    thank you for your deeply help.

  • @syedabrar9431
    @syedabrar94318 ай бұрын

    Out class video... My exam will be conducted in a few hours I'm seeing this video all concept cleared. Thank you. God bless you dear. More n more shared in my class mates Whatsapp group

  • @sophietan2652
    @sophietan26523 жыл бұрын

    Great explanation!! Thank you so much :)

  • @talatuhassan6469
    @talatuhassan64696 жыл бұрын

    How to find exp entail smoothing regression analysis, Markov chain, simulation. Thank you

  • @user-so1bq6tq2o
    @user-so1bq6tq2o Жыл бұрын

    Very good explanation

  • @Dan71Pel
    @Dan71Pel5 жыл бұрын

    Great vid. Thank you so much!

  • @shaikhashab9697
    @shaikhashab9697 Жыл бұрын

    you are a great teacher sir everyone is a teacher but everyone is not have a Idea how to teach you teach very well sir

  • @Qadaqido
    @Qadaqido2 жыл бұрын

    how simple and easy!!! Thank you

  • @pibidenalanka987
    @pibidenalanka98711 ай бұрын

    Thank you very much, Sir for explaining well.

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    11 ай бұрын

    You are most welcome

  • @margaretrajski4808
    @margaretrajski4808 Жыл бұрын

    Excellent explanation!

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    Thanks, Margaret.

  • @freddy1599
    @freddy15993 жыл бұрын

    Thank you. Which formula can I use in predicting the overhead budget. Thanks again

  • @froilansalac6030
    @froilansalac60306 жыл бұрын

    thanks! i Got great ideas for this videos!

  • @joelopez3552
    @joelopez35523 жыл бұрын

    i love this dude

  • @ellisakerragasajo7889
    @ellisakerragasajo78892 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for this, Sir!❤️

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    Жыл бұрын

    My pleasure, Ellisa!

  • @PhrAntoine
    @PhrAntoine4 жыл бұрын

    I would suggest changing the values for weeks to a date structure. It makes it easier to follow. The term "next most recent" is an odd way to say the previous week

  • @kermit8556
    @kermit8556 Жыл бұрын

    you are AMAZING

  • @Lelogram_superstar3
    @Lelogram_superstar32 жыл бұрын

    You saved me. Merci beaucoup!

  • @chrislainma5997
    @chrislainma59975 жыл бұрын

    Very good explanation, thanks

  • @ThePhysics1234
    @ThePhysics12345 жыл бұрын

    How do you differentiate Mean absolute deviation vs Median absolute deviation which is also short for MAD

  • @CUTECAT59036
    @CUTECAT590363 жыл бұрын

    Thank you very much

  • @ArslanJapani
    @ArslanJapani4 жыл бұрын

    That Really helped alot sir! Thankew

  • @Firestarter009
    @Firestarter0096 жыл бұрын

    hi joshua could you further evaluate for Normalised weighted Root Mean Squared logarithmatic Error,please

  • @paradox9295
    @paradox92959 ай бұрын

    Thank you sir!

  • @NiksterInspirations
    @NiksterInspirations7 жыл бұрын

    Very helpful, thank you.

  • @mayceperalta520
    @mayceperalta520 Жыл бұрын

    Thank you for thisssss 🥰🥰

  • @hydershaikh83
    @hydershaikh837 жыл бұрын

    ur great.thanks a lot . awesome explanation

  • @Deebz786
    @Deebz7868 жыл бұрын

    Joshua you are the man

  • @andaydeniz
    @andaydeniz Жыл бұрын

    Thank you !

  • @ketlercajuste6591
    @ketlercajuste65918 жыл бұрын

    well explained! thank you

  • @tanaman7111
    @tanaman71114 жыл бұрын

    May the force be with you Joshua

  • @irisht.mascardo8616
    @irisht.mascardo86162 жыл бұрын

    thank you for this

  • @HealthyFoodBae_
    @HealthyFoodBae_3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you! 1. Is weighted moving average, or moving average really a forecasting method? Or is it a way of smoothing the data? (I am trying to learn and understand. ) 2. How do you determine which weight value to use? Thank you for the insight.

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    3 жыл бұрын

    1. They are smoothing methods and can be used for forecasting. 2. Typically you choose your weights in a way that minimizes error. Methods used will vary by context.

  • @haticekubragurses8568
    @haticekubragurses85686 жыл бұрын

    can u explain decomposition on your nex video

  • @ravenmateo9454
    @ravenmateo94542 жыл бұрын

    really helped well sir thank you t__________t

  • @HealthyFoodBae_
    @HealthyFoodBae_3 жыл бұрын

    How do you know which weight values to use?

  • @amaligamage937
    @amaligamage9373 жыл бұрын

    Thank you sir..❤️

  • @MuznyMalkan
    @MuznyMalkan4 жыл бұрын

    Thanks a lot 😊

  • @nikkinikki8745
    @nikkinikki87454 жыл бұрын

    Please Josh how would interpret the 2.92 result?

  • @FuatEnesARICI
    @FuatEnesARICI4 жыл бұрын

    how to decide of their weights ??

  • @hassanalianees5530
    @hassanalianees55302 жыл бұрын

    How can we know what weights should be used?

  • @nourkhawari5168
    @nourkhawari51685 жыл бұрын

    what if the ( 4 weeks ) is not given, the question only says find the forecast for a specific month? how can i solve ?

  • @kingngote5201
    @kingngote52015 жыл бұрын

    How can you calculate the sales for week 9 and 10.

  • @AnAyahaDay
    @AnAyahaDay4 жыл бұрын

    What if we want to forecast more than one values in future. For example 21 future values in future? considering we have enough past data.

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    4 жыл бұрын

    You cannot forecast more than one period into the future with this method.

  • @averyperosa3052
    @averyperosa30524 жыл бұрын

    thank you very much for this video, why is 45 the most recent value to start?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    4 жыл бұрын

    Of all the recent periods, 45 is the closest the period we want to forecast.

  • @eriol33
    @eriol333 жыл бұрын

    if I got my next job, I must thank you

  • @toes5032
    @toes50325 жыл бұрын

    Very good video thank you

  • @anchalmishra
    @anchalmishra3 жыл бұрын

    on what basis you calculated weights

  • @charelynmullaneda3018
    @charelynmullaneda30184 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for this 😊

  • @sonikx38
    @sonikx387 жыл бұрын

    great help ... thank you

  • @linhnguyen-qr6dp
    @linhnguyen-qr6dp3 жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much for the videos. But I’m wondering if we could calculate week 8-10? how could I do that?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    3 жыл бұрын

    No, you cannot. You can only forecast one period into the future using this method.

  • @noorulrimsha
    @noorulrimsha2 жыл бұрын

    thank youu Sir ❤️

  • @sethephraimtetteh-quaye8508
    @sethephraimtetteh-quaye85084 жыл бұрын

    great with the second tutorial.

  • @mbekezelencube437
    @mbekezelencube4373 жыл бұрын

    HOW DO I CALCULATE THE FORECAST GIVEN 3 WEIGHTS ONLY?

  • @user-lp3mj6nw2v
    @user-lp3mj6nw2v2 жыл бұрын

    How about there is no given weight average but we need to calculate the three months and six montsh weighted moving averages?. Can someone help me/enlighten me please. THANK YOU

  • @hadytannir9248
    @hadytannir92482 ай бұрын

    LEGEND!

  • @sushmabalakrishnan4909
    @sushmabalakrishnan49096 жыл бұрын

    Hello.. The video is great explained very clearly But I had a doubt, when "we assume the weights of different values the sum of their weights should be equal to 1", Here It is satisfied for 4week but not in case of 2week??

  • @nikitaagrawal9472

    @nikitaagrawal9472

    4 жыл бұрын

    Because in 4 weeks the sum of weights are 1.

  • @nikitaagrawal9472

    @nikitaagrawal9472

    4 жыл бұрын

    Because in 4 years week, the sum of weights is 1.

  • @TrangNguyen-si8ru
    @TrangNguyen-si8ru4 жыл бұрын

    Hi, How can we decide the weights?

  • @christophercostello2713
    @christophercostello27132 жыл бұрын

    Nice thank you

  • @MindBeliever
    @MindBeliever3 жыл бұрын

    Anyone know how it work on "optimum weighted moving avarage". There is no weights?? 🤔

  • @hassanalianees5530
    @hassanalianees55302 жыл бұрын

    What is the benefit of taking Moving Averages? How can we interpret MAD?

  • @RichaHanda
    @RichaHanda7 жыл бұрын

    if i increase number of weeks then error will decrease or increase. if error is increase as shown in ur example that 2wma give better smoothing than 4 wma then it means as number of periods increases the smoothing error get increased.

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    7 жыл бұрын

    Not at all. The errors depend largely on the data you have.

  • @jjjahed7272
    @jjjahed72728 жыл бұрын

    If there three weights in question but two of them are given. How can I calculate the third weight, since it wasn't given. Thanks

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    8 жыл бұрын

    +MD Jahedul Islam Just make sure the they add up to 1 (or 100%).

  • @fajarjavid4651
    @fajarjavid46513 жыл бұрын

    Thankyou.👍

  • @krissydeebeachgirl
    @krissydeebeachgirl6 жыл бұрын

    How do you determine the weight values - .4, .3 etc? Or are they just a given?

  • @joshemman

    @joshemman

    6 жыл бұрын

    Yes. They are given.