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Forecasting: Weighted Moving Averages, MAD
Moving Averages in Excel: • Moving Averages in Exc...
See Moving Averages, MAD, MSE, MAPE here:
• Forecasting: Moving Av...
This video tutorial covers
*Weighted Moving Averages
*Determining which forecasting model is better based on the Mean Absolute Deviation.
Пікірлер: 233
Sir, I'm not exaggerating when I say you've saved my life. God bless you
@kingchisale4605
Жыл бұрын
Ndipo sukunama😂
@dafulegend5905
Жыл бұрын
I know this is old, but like because of this channel, I was basically able to get 3.0 with a terror prof. For more context, the professor grades infamously low, but I still managed to get a score of 3.0, which is around 85%, or a B - B+.
@philippalaribambilla8439
Жыл бұрын
Thank you sir, this is very interesting
If only professors could be as clear as this video as well as Joshua's other videos. Thank you so much sir!
@ivageorgieva2985
9 ай бұрын
Rightttt our professor literally makes it sound so much more difficult ..explaining such a simple thing for over 30 min when it can be shown for 5 minutes ..
@mehdirahan6943
9 ай бұрын
@@ivageorgieva2985 It's also why I believe actual experience is worth way more than knowledge for the most part.
You are a better Professor than MY professor !!!! more clear and easy to understand!!! 100% GOOD for international students!
You have saved me! I've been stuck on a problem like this for hours!
Thank you! I was so confused by this in my textbook. You broke it down to where I can understand the material!
@kanhaythakore8136
Жыл бұрын
lode ka textbook mai galat diya hai sab loda bhenchod bakwaas hai
thank you sir, it took me 5 min to understand it clearly, u deserve everything in this world 😭🙌🏻
Thank you. You literally explained something that my professor couldn't for 2 straight hours. Thanks a lot.
Saved me 5 hours of reading a complicated book. Thanks!
Sir, I'm not exaggerating when I say you've saved my life. God bless you You Give me So much better than my teacher's explanation. Thanks! a lot
@joshemman
2 жыл бұрын
Glad to help Alehegn.
Thank you sir! Your videos are clear and I always leave smarter than when I first arrived!
Now I can pass my exam! Phew... Thank you for this. Very clear
Legit needed this vid. Thank you. If it wasn't for this vid I'd be stressed as hell.
this was very helpful before I had to take an exam. Thank you!
Awesome job of breaking it down!
Thanks for this simple and straightforward explanation. I have a question on when do we use MSE vs MAE for error calculation
Your videos are amazing and really easy to understand, do you have anything about Simple Linear Regression?
well explained and very helpful, Thank you so much Joshua
You're a legend! I wish my professor was like this :(
Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with α = 0.2 to develop a demand forecast for period 7. (Forecast for Period 1=10).
thank you for the explanation. this was soo easy to understand.
thank you so much this was really helpful, it was loud and clear...
Hello Joshua,I would like to thank you for wonderful explanation.i have a question will the smaller value of m will give good forecast if so then how.
Very incredible, wish you include more topic in that video lecture
The 4 weeks percentages were already convent to a percentage, that's why it adds up to 1. That's also why you divide the WMA by 5 for week 2. 3(x)/5 + 2(y)/5 = (3x+2y)/5 I think the important part to remember is to convert to percentages
Man, good job. It was helpful.
Thank you so much I understand everything keep up the good work 👍
i just fall in love with your method of explaining🙈🙈🙈
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much 😀
Very helpful video. This channel must be located by students.
Well Explained, if i have the Data and i should put the weight values how i can calculate them ! i just have Data for sales last year and want to use this method it's applicable and how ! thank you very much for your support
thank you for this amazing explanations 👌
Thank you man tomorrow is my exam. It helped me. Great video.
Can we using the method for seasonal data where the irregularity can be extreme? For example, can we know that next week the sales would be 60, which is very different than the rest of your data?
This was very helpful. Thank you.
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
Glad it was helpful!
Thank you, that was useful for my study!
That was very comprehensible. Like it.
Big thanks you are GREAT , VOICE, VERBAL , SMOOTH EXPLANATION, THANK YOU :)
@user-wh4ke3rd5u
3 жыл бұрын
Thank you
thank you for your deeply help.
Out class video... My exam will be conducted in a few hours I'm seeing this video all concept cleared. Thank you. God bless you dear. More n more shared in my class mates Whatsapp group
Great explanation!! Thank you so much :)
How to find exp entail smoothing regression analysis, Markov chain, simulation. Thank you
Very good explanation
Great vid. Thank you so much!
you are a great teacher sir everyone is a teacher but everyone is not have a Idea how to teach you teach very well sir
how simple and easy!!! Thank you
Thank you very much, Sir for explaining well.
@joshemman
11 ай бұрын
You are most welcome
Excellent explanation!
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
Thanks, Margaret.
Thank you. Which formula can I use in predicting the overhead budget. Thanks again
thanks! i Got great ideas for this videos!
i love this dude
Thank you for this, Sir!❤️
@joshemman
Жыл бұрын
My pleasure, Ellisa!
I would suggest changing the values for weeks to a date structure. It makes it easier to follow. The term "next most recent" is an odd way to say the previous week
you are AMAZING
You saved me. Merci beaucoup!
Very good explanation, thanks
How do you differentiate Mean absolute deviation vs Median absolute deviation which is also short for MAD
Thank you very much
That Really helped alot sir! Thankew
hi joshua could you further evaluate for Normalised weighted Root Mean Squared logarithmatic Error,please
Thank you sir!
Very helpful, thank you.
Thank you for thisssss 🥰🥰
ur great.thanks a lot . awesome explanation
Joshua you are the man
Thank you !
well explained! thank you
May the force be with you Joshua
thank you for this
Thank you! 1. Is weighted moving average, or moving average really a forecasting method? Or is it a way of smoothing the data? (I am trying to learn and understand. ) 2. How do you determine which weight value to use? Thank you for the insight.
@joshemman
3 жыл бұрын
1. They are smoothing methods and can be used for forecasting. 2. Typically you choose your weights in a way that minimizes error. Methods used will vary by context.
can u explain decomposition on your nex video
really helped well sir thank you t__________t
How do you know which weight values to use?
Thank you sir..❤️
Thanks a lot 😊
Please Josh how would interpret the 2.92 result?
how to decide of their weights ??
How can we know what weights should be used?
what if the ( 4 weeks ) is not given, the question only says find the forecast for a specific month? how can i solve ?
How can you calculate the sales for week 9 and 10.
What if we want to forecast more than one values in future. For example 21 future values in future? considering we have enough past data.
@joshemman
4 жыл бұрын
You cannot forecast more than one period into the future with this method.
thank you very much for this video, why is 45 the most recent value to start?
@joshemman
4 жыл бұрын
Of all the recent periods, 45 is the closest the period we want to forecast.
if I got my next job, I must thank you
Very good video thank you
on what basis you calculated weights
Thanks for this 😊
great help ... thank you
Thank you so much for the videos. But I’m wondering if we could calculate week 8-10? how could I do that?
@joshemman
3 жыл бұрын
No, you cannot. You can only forecast one period into the future using this method.
thank youu Sir ❤️
great with the second tutorial.
HOW DO I CALCULATE THE FORECAST GIVEN 3 WEIGHTS ONLY?
How about there is no given weight average but we need to calculate the three months and six montsh weighted moving averages?. Can someone help me/enlighten me please. THANK YOU
LEGEND!
Hello.. The video is great explained very clearly But I had a doubt, when "we assume the weights of different values the sum of their weights should be equal to 1", Here It is satisfied for 4week but not in case of 2week??
@nikitaagrawal9472
4 жыл бұрын
Because in 4 weeks the sum of weights are 1.
@nikitaagrawal9472
4 жыл бұрын
Because in 4 years week, the sum of weights is 1.
Hi, How can we decide the weights?
Nice thank you
Anyone know how it work on "optimum weighted moving avarage". There is no weights?? 🤔
What is the benefit of taking Moving Averages? How can we interpret MAD?
if i increase number of weeks then error will decrease or increase. if error is increase as shown in ur example that 2wma give better smoothing than 4 wma then it means as number of periods increases the smoothing error get increased.
@joshemman
7 жыл бұрын
Not at all. The errors depend largely on the data you have.
If there three weights in question but two of them are given. How can I calculate the third weight, since it wasn't given. Thanks
@joshemman
8 жыл бұрын
+MD Jahedul Islam Just make sure the they add up to 1 (or 100%).
Thankyou.👍
How do you determine the weight values - .4, .3 etc? Or are they just a given?
@joshemman
6 жыл бұрын
Yes. They are given.