The first 100 people to use code MONEYMACRO at the link below will get 60% off of Incogni: incogni.com/moneymacro

@mageshpandian2544

11 ай бұрын

4:00 I like how the domestic activity tracker only tracks a single day yet shows such great variations 😯

@alisonhilll4317

11 ай бұрын

All wars are bankers wars and all bankers are international zionist bankers working for the Rothchilds.

@davidwheatman2042

11 ай бұрын

The graphic at 4:00 has an error on the horizontal time axis

@donotlike4anonymus594

11 ай бұрын

Well hold on here yet for a second... You can't just ignore such massive factors as the societal backlash Just like you can't separate a sanctioned reality and a control reality you can't just attribute everything to the sanctions by themselves The war itself has an impact Be it by causing supply chain disruption by taking away materials inferstracture and young productive workers Or by other factors such as boycotts... Or more specifically individuals avoiding Russian products And etc (Sure all thoes small factors aren't significant on they're own but they add up) From investors pulling away because of the lsck of confidence in the economy to small businesses leaving and etc etc all of that has both a short and a long term economic consequence And you can't just attribute all of that to the sanctions It's hard to say just how big of an impact they had but just because the dconomt contracted doesn't mean much What if in an alternative reality control The economy would've even subtracted more because of the reaction to the war and lack of sanctions There's always a bit of randomness and there's always human behavior Just like people stopped giving money to charities because society got used to the idea that there's a government and a welfare safety net... Doesn't mean that in a case of emergency society won't support itself Sure if governments were to collapse/drop all welfare. There will be a temporary shock to the system and a lot of people will suffer as a consequence But eventually people will rebuild the good old charity community support structures and life will go on as before... Who knows how'd humans react if there were no sanctions maybe it'd drive people to go the extra mile to boycott Russia and avoid the Russian economy Russian oil and etc... Who knows

@TheManinBlack9054

11 ай бұрын

Sanctions never worked and they never will. The only real target that they reach is the under class that is severly overimpacted, neither the police nor the military will ever feel the force of them, its the least well off member of society that will.

Who would have thought a private military would put their business interest over national security?

@-kenjo-421

11 ай бұрын

Its safe as long Wangner worked for its oeiginal purpose in Africa and Syria, when its so close to the moscow and recruts thousants of people, and finally left the front to the camps after capturing Bakhmut it became out of control Its very unclear what Wangner future in Belarus would be, we could only imagine what happens this time

@cloudsstar

11 ай бұрын

whats that say about blackwater in the usa

@weirdo1060

11 ай бұрын

Nicolo Machiavelli mentioned how mercenaries are loyal to the prince that sent them (Prigozhen), not the prince that uses them (Putin)

@SetTheCurve

11 ай бұрын

Who would think that armies would be loyal to politicians? Especially when they don’t believe their orders are in line with what helps the actual country.

@sechran

11 ай бұрын

The Russian Oligarch chose money over matters of national impact!?! * Surprised face *

As a political scientist, I really appreciated the disclaimer at the end about the limits of economics in explaining things. Too many economists miss this bit and just forge on with predictions that leave me shaking my head for how divorced from any political context they are. Great analysis and communication as always.

@MoneyMacro

11 ай бұрын

Thank you. Very happy to hear that!!

@eedobee

11 ай бұрын

As a a scientist, I find your use of the word science makes me shake my head. It has all the rigour of humanities and none of the authority of a true science. It’s use of the name is a theft of valour.

@jeanpierreledouche4807

11 ай бұрын

@@eedobee lol butthurt much?

@TheManinBlack9054

11 ай бұрын

Sanctions never worked and they never will. The only real target that they reach is the under class that is severly overimpacted, neither the police nor the military will ever feel the force of them, its the least well off member of society that will.

@Ghoddal

11 ай бұрын

​@@eedobeeAh, always nice to spot arrogant yet apparently clueless people when it comes to social sciences and their work.

Gazprom just declared it would not pay its dividend for 2022, saving it $13.2 Billion. Simultaneously, the Duma passed legislation levying a new 1.2 trillion ruble tax on Gazprom. Over the past 9 months, the founding CEO and 5 other senior execs have died under unusual circumstances. At the time of the war, a significant portion of Gazprom's shares held by foreign interests were essentially confiscated. It's not a particularly big mystery what's going on here, and that adds back a non-trivial amount to Putin's treasury.

@eca3101

11 ай бұрын

he put them there, he owned them.

@maggieliz1059

11 ай бұрын

Wow. I was just about to ask if there has been any analysis of shareholder interests in important Russian companies. If sanctions are having the effect of denying dividends, enough rich folks will force Putin out, slowly but surely, and then all at once.

@casteretpollux

11 ай бұрын

Russia's reserves were seized and its Nordstream blown up. Its war.

@giannislainas5187

11 ай бұрын

Gas exports were going to EU mostly,after NS being blown up its obvious that Gazprom would have losses. All the other conspiracy theories i dont care to follow myself,but be my guest. Russian oil companies on the other hand,since oil is more easily trasported and stored than gas is by ship or in general,they are doing more than fine.

@blink182bfsftw

11 ай бұрын

​@@giannislainas5187cope

The intellectual humility from an economist is shocking. You earned a sub just for that. Excellent video!

@braveshine2579

11 ай бұрын

he so so biased person in uk or some european. take like boss terms in his videos.

@TheManinBlack9054

11 ай бұрын

Sanctions never worked and they never will. The only real target that they reach is the under class that is severly overimpacted, neither the police nor the military will ever feel the force of them, its the least well off member of society that will.

@michaelkirk4173

11 ай бұрын

Eh, they still released a video where they used 3 basically non-sensible number and took an average.

@ChasmChaos

11 ай бұрын

@@michaelkirk4173 the wisdom of crowds

@neolexiousneolexian6079

11 ай бұрын

@@michaelkirk4173 Yeah, but he contextualised the lack of any better data... Probably had too many sigfigs or whatever in his final average, but other than that I think it's understandable as a best-effort estimate?

Sanctions never squeeze an economy enough to stop bad behavior on their own, and I don't think anyone believed that Putin would be stopped by sanctions. Still, Russia is uniquely sensitive to oil price caps and to the exodus of young educated men who are avoiding mobilization.

@insomniacresurrected1000

11 ай бұрын

Putin could have stopped this exodus like Ukraine did. He didn’t. 😂

@macmcleod1188

11 ай бұрын

Sanctions work but they take time. At a minimum, they degrade a nation's ability to wage war.

@hanifarroisimukhlis5989

11 ай бұрын

​@@macmcleod1188eh not really, at most it promotes isolationism and self-sufficiency. Russia is already cautious with US movement, so they probably had prepared.

@RealLifeIronMan

11 ай бұрын

​@@insomniacresurrected1000Putin isn't very competent. That is why he couldn't stop the exodus.😂

@insomniacresurrected1000

11 ай бұрын

@@macmcleod1188 Russia was always under some form of sanctions, it didn’t help shit.

I am so glad you mention that economics is not exact science.

@-kenjo-421

11 ай бұрын

Social sciences in general cant be exact, not only its an experement in real time but human behaviour can be absolutely random, its like pedicting the lottery outcome without knowing numbers

@overman2306

11 ай бұрын

​@@-kenjo-421Social science is not science. That's why.

@Nevio197

11 ай бұрын

Social sciences test hypothesis starting from theories through the scientific method, of course they are science

@SeanCSHConsulting

11 ай бұрын

@@overman2306 dumb

@overman2306

11 ай бұрын

@Nevio197 Only physics, chemistry, biology and possibly astronomy are science. Everything else is just political hacks trying to pass off their theories as science. Science exists without humans existing.

Love the increased pace of video release. This is the only economics channel that I personally trust. I hope that you keep growing and that you are able to produce more content :)

@MoneyMacro

11 ай бұрын

Thank you!! I am on a 2 video pm schedule at the moment and for the upcoming months. Had to actually scale back a little bit in March & April because of my duties as a new father.

@kiroomghaha

11 ай бұрын

Congratulations macro, family first afterall🎉🎉

@carkawalakhatulistiwa

11 ай бұрын

​@@MoneyMacroThe United States and Britain could attack Iraq without any consequences. while Russia attacking Ukraine could get economic sanctions. really western hypocrisy

@dudejaca04

11 ай бұрын

@@MoneyMacro congrats 👏 💖

@carkawalakhatulistiwa

11 ай бұрын

​@@MoneyMacroWhen Ukraine sent their troops to Iraq, they had no problem with invasions or not respecting other countries' sovereign territory. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq%E2%80%93Ukraine_relations#:~:text=Approximately%205000%20Ukrainian%20soldiers%2C%20in,Iraq%20%282003%E2%80%932011%29

I am so glad to have an economist so confidently state the flaws of the discipline. Many economists overstate what they can deduce and would probably leap at an opportunity to explain the Wagner coup as a purely economical phenomenon. I still think this is very useful analysis and can paint parts of the broader picture.

@noirekuroraigami2270

10 ай бұрын

Did you actually listen to Progozhin??? He thinks Russia should take of the Kid Gloves and wreck Ukraine😂

Yes. Russian economic statistics were pretty decent before 2022. Probably one reason why the IMF continues to trust them for too long.

I find the political explanation WAAY more convincing. Prigozhin has been openly criticizing and competing against the RU military for at least 10 months. In the last few months he really became outspoken and was openly saying that the ministry of defense are incompetent and corrupt fools. With that, they decided that Wagner has finished its job and is ready to be integrated into the regular armed forces. Then he revolted because his company would be absolved and his power that he fought so hard to achieve will be gone now.

@harku123

11 ай бұрын

In the end it's a combination. Money is power and more power is more money, fundamentally. Everything he said building up to it can be used as his justification for his actions because saying "you don't give me enough money" doesn't sound as convincing with his clout. I'm not saying you're wrong at all, you're probably right but it's almost always a combination of things and almost never a single reason. Politics and economics go hand in hand

@bcotrim12

11 ай бұрын

Multiple things can be true. Another non-sanction related possible cause could be the loss of young men either to battlefield or fleeing to other countries, who are extremely important to any economy Russia could also benefited from record prices in oil and gas last summer that could've helped them offset some effects of the sanctions The Russian economy is definitely not as good as it should've been if no war took place, at least the commercial part, as the video states. Plus, this video only focused on GDP growth, as other metrics are either unavailable or not viable. Sanctions also give diplomatic power that will be really important in the eventual negotiations that will take place some day

@arthas640

11 ай бұрын

Agreed. Wagner has control of some extremely rich African mines and places like the Central African Republic have corruption similar to Russia's meaning it would actually be shocking if Wagner wasnt receiving tons of money outside of what the CAR and Russian governments are paying them. Prigozhin uses mostly Russian equipment and supplies, and he's been carrying out a lot of his combat lately with unpaid conscripts and unpaid prisoners, and knowing Russia it's also quite possible that he's not paying for the voluntary soldiers under his command if they die. Prigozhin and Wagner were being paid pretty good before the war, estimates vary wildly but Prigozhin is estimated to be worth hundreds of millions and perhaps even over a billion, one of the few things he really lacks though is safety and stability since all of his power and all of his wealth are at Putins whim and it wouldnt take much for Putin to take it all away from him so building some public support and asserting his position in the country like with this "coup" or by being one of the few who's criticized Kremlin elites or Putin and survived

@maggieliz1059

11 ай бұрын

Both are true. Look at the timing. Shoigu was trying to take over Prigo's private army AND economic enterprise by breaking Wagner up. Prigo said no way and launched the mutiny even a little early to prevent this. He may have had political support lined up in certain Generals and Kremlin insiders, but that support didn't hold. Luke sees an opportunity and says, I'll give you legal status here, so you can continue your global enterprise... and give me kickbacks. It's both political and $$.

@ChucksSEADnDEAD

11 ай бұрын

​@@arthas640 But Wagner's control of the mines is, on paper, based on Prigozhin's shell companies that connect to his catering business. Wagner becoming part of the MoD means squat, Progozhin is the money man. And I'd be surprised if Russia actually went mask off, the mines will most likely be held by shell companies rather than the Russian state.

Paying Wagner an allowance gives me the image of a neighbor paying his kid an allowance to break windows in the neighborhood. Of course, when I was a glazier, we all thought of this as a way to create more business, but we never actually did it.....

@jeremyj5932

11 ай бұрын

Huge mistake by Putin admitting this after denying it previously. That along with Wagner admitting the justification for invading Ukraine is a lie = stick a fork in Russia the fat lady sings.

I admire this channel because it is one of very few KZread economy channels (or social science in general) that openly admitted the science of macroeconomics, which "cannot explain the global affairs without the political context."

@cjohnson3836

11 ай бұрын

Ultimately, economics is nothing more than a special case of ecology applied to a single species (our own). Sociology is simply a sub-discipline of anthropology, which is itself a sub-discipline of ecology. Again, simply focused on one species, our own. A lot of things that happen both domestically and geopolitically make sense once you correctly place these things into this hierarchy, assuming you know some fundamental ecological theory.

@Descriptor413

11 ай бұрын

@@cjohnson3836 I think there's a trend in general now of looking more at human systems in an ecological lens. Urban planning is another area that is undergoing this perspective shift.

@cjohnson3836

11 ай бұрын

@@Descriptor413 There is, its yet a bit superficial though. People aren't yet ready for topics like the evo-eco implications of cultural inheritance and multi level selection on a frequency dependent fitness landscape that, for instance, means that authoritarian dictatorships are a necessary component in maintaining democracy elsewhere. Or that social punishment is a necessary component in the maintenance of cooperation and this fact predicts things like the anti-trans blowback we are currently seeing in western countries. [Not saying its a good thing, good is relative to one's values. Just saying its a feature of the system]

@TheManinBlack9054

11 ай бұрын

Sanctions never worked and they never will. The only real target that they reach is the under class that is severly overimpacted, neither the police nor the military will ever feel the force of them, its the least well off member of society that will.

The explanation you're doing in this video is excellent! I'm usually always lost at some point because you sometimes mention things you assume the viewer knows. But as someone who was very science-heavy in my high school, this was very very easy to understand, and the explanation was crisp, to the point. I'd almost argue you're adding too many "grains of salt" disclaimers. The methods explained in this video are pretty solid. As long as you're not saying "this is definitely the state of the Russian economy" and use careful language like "it is estimated" you're in the clear. I mean anyone who understands basic economics and science will get what you mean - meanwhile those who love gripping headlines like "chocolate causes cancer" would point out how "evolution is just a theory" when in reality they really could use some reality based info... I mean after all, even weather is a forecast, a prediction based on simulation. But we don't just discard it - it's useful even when slightly inaccurate. But yeah, props - my new respect for this channel... Economists tend to not be as careful as scientist, so I appreciate your effort to address this 'dogma'.

@EnemyOfEldar

11 ай бұрын

"Economists tend not to be as accurate as scientists... My brother, music to my ears. Thank you.

@D-E-S_8559

11 ай бұрын

@@EnemyOfEldarBY @ymirheimmusic959 --- song performed by UB40 Dedicated to prigozhin, with no malice... [Chorus:] There's a rat in mi kitchen what am I gonna do? There's a rat in mi kitchen what am I gonna go? I'm gonna fix that rat thats what I'm gonna do, I'm gonna fix that rat. When you open your mouth you don't talk, you shout And you give every body the blame, But when they catch you up, They will shut you up And you got no one to blame [Chorus] When you out on the street, You practice lies and deceipt And you scandalize my name But when I catch you up I'm gonna pull you up I'm gonna check-out inside your brain [Chorus] When yo deh pon the scene, You make everyone scream Because they know your so unjust But when they catch you up They will kick you up Because you someone they cannot trust [Chorus] You invade my space Make me feel disgraced And you just don't give a damn If I had my way If I had my say I'd like to see you hang

@musicexams5258

11 ай бұрын

admittedly, chocolate does cause cancer because EVERYTHING causes cancer

Whenever they say “It’s not about the money”…it’s about the money. 🤑

As Lewis Black once pointed out, economists can never be too sure about anything because economics classes are always taught at 7:00 AM. But I do appreciate the explanation that economics can't really be quantified the way normal scientific observations can.

@-whackd

11 ай бұрын

The science of economics is about finding economic law. Laws are regularities that occur in nature, in this case, in economies. For example, laws of supply and demand. The law of comparative advantage. Someone who calls themself an economist and records historical monetary data and makes a guess about a growth rate in one country is not really doing "economics", but is accounting data, such as aggregating trade inflows and outflows. Theyre doing some accounting. This type of accounting doesnt require an economics education, it requires the ability to add and subtract and then report a single number for someone.

@johnstevenson9956

11 ай бұрын

@@-whackd Quite true. I did study economics but unlike Lewis Black, I had the advantage of not studying it at 7:00AM.

@polarvortex3294

10 ай бұрын

I wish the people who believe that we're cooking the planet had the same humility. There exists, of course, no parallel Earth where humans never experienced the Industrial Revolution that we can use to observe the composition of the atmosphere and the nature of the climate to compare to the like phenomena of our own industrialized earth. There are models, of course, that can't compare at all to the imagined Earth doppelganger -- that are like a child's drawing compared to the Mona Lisa, really. But millions believe in them implicitly.

@Account.for.Comment

10 ай бұрын

​@@-whackda common phrase in the FT comment section is that "Economics are just politics with a calculator." The law of supply and demand was created to justify the price, but the actual pricing was always done based on how much its sellers think they can get away with.

Excellent, balanced and rational assessment without clickbait nonsense. Highly recommended.

@Homer-OJ-Simpson

11 ай бұрын

Gave you the facts, gave the potential problems, showed many studies, and was consistent with saying that it's evidence but not a smoking gun. I think it's enough evidence to draw a decent conclusion that the war has indeed had a major negative impact on the economy but determining that exact number is very difficult and determining how much of it is from the sanctions and how much from other variables related to starting a war is also difficult.

The Russian monthly balance sheets (which contain some potentially manipulated figures but harder to tweak the totals) show the impact of sanctions pretty well and you can just look at the monthly impacts.

2023's planned deficit was exhausted by May. We will see whether gas and oil flow extraordinarily well, but reserves will be depleted by the middle of 2024 at this rate. There are, however, already plans to do budget cuts on healthcare and whatnot.

@jamesmeow3039

11 ай бұрын

Sure the Russian population will love it

@memofromessex

11 ай бұрын

Are the pension cuts still going ahead?

@RipMachine1

11 ай бұрын

@@memofromessexthey wont “cut” the pensions but rather they will not be indexed to inflation this way the majority of the pensioners will blame the evil “speculators” for raising the prices while the government will be blameless in their eyes plus add some good ol propaganda for good measure. Women above the age of 50 is putin’s core electorate.

@MrEstarion

11 ай бұрын

@@memofromessex I don't recall anything new, but remember that they have been suspending people's mandatory personal contributions to pay current pensioners for 10 years. It's normally 16% to cover others and 6% toward your personal pension plan, but it's been all 22% to others. No pension indexation for people that continue to work after reaching retirement age either.

@kev792

11 ай бұрын

@@MrEstarionJesus. Does the public know about this, or do they just don’t care? Or can’t do anything about it even if they did care?

Perun made a good video about country economy during war time , he made a point that economy rarely collapse due to war

@casteretpollux

11 ай бұрын

The British economy collapsed post WW2. US emergency loan only recently paid off.

This channel is WAY better than Economics Explained!

@midamida915

11 ай бұрын

This channel is MILES ahead of EE - that channel is mediocre imho

@memofromessex

11 ай бұрын

@@midamida915 Yeah, EE is flawed pop economics

@ibfreely8952

11 ай бұрын

Economics explained is trash

@aman_2002

11 ай бұрын

​@@memofromessexfr

@mrjjman2010

11 ай бұрын

@@ibfreely8952the Dave Ramsey of economics focused channels

Thanks for the video. The x-axis of your chart at 4:00 mislabels dates. I'm pretty sure that data starts at January 2021 and ends at March 2023. The title of that graph also has a typo.

@davidrowland6

11 ай бұрын

The graph is a mess, not only from top to bottom but also from left to right. I was scrolling through the comments to see if somebody had already pointed this out, but your criticism doesn't come close to this abomination of a graph! That this was apparently missed by 99% of viewers would seem to indicate the power of cognitive biases and a compelling narrative - perhaps because it uniquely offers an alternative to the more mainstream contention that Russian economic output is roughly on par with that of the German economy. You're right ofc, the first piece of evidence presented to support this contentious narrative is a simple graph - it is mistitled, it has mislabelled axes, and the x-axis range is arbitrarily selected such that the lines of best fit for each model correlate well. But more importantly, potentially significant deviations between the model and the official data can be seen from the very first data point (Sep '21), long before Putin's invasion of Ukraine, where both empirical models *overestimate* Russian economic output compared to Rostat GDP estimation. Logically, it seems unlikely that Rostat would deliberately *understate* Russian GDP, so this would imply that the model is not especially accurate - perhaps consistently overestimating Russian economic output, or perhaps the model variably deviates from Russian GDP measures of output. We cannot infer which is more likely, due to the narrow selection of date ranges from 6mo before the invasion till recently: i.e. more datapoints should be shown on the graph from when Rostat could be trusted to fairly calculate/ accurately present Russian GDP data, as these datapoints provide a accurate baseline comparator vs the post-invasion Rostat data (hypothesised by M&M to be doctored but not proven herein). Significant deviations between the two empirical models used can also be seen at specific mislabelled timepoints (2nd, 4th and 6th) in the same graph - time points where the more parsimonious model actually estimates GDP to be closer to the Rostat estimation than to the less parsimonious model. But if one empirical model is more accurate than the other, then why bother including both on the graph? This isn't to say that the hypothesis is wrong, but it's better to engage in empty speculation than to present models as though they are proof that the hypothesis is correct.

My understanding of the Prigozhin situation was 1) Prigozhin openly criticised Gerasimov and Shoigu in public, calling them negligent, incompetent, and saying they only got their jobs because of corruption. 2) WPMC forces were withdraw fron the line and told they would be sent to a much less active part of the front in Belarus 3) Prigozhin was told the Russian government would not be renewing his contract meaning that he would soon have no money to pay his troops and so hold his organisation together 4) Prigozhin accused the Russian command of making a missile or rocket attack on one of his bases, possibly implying there was an attempt by them to assassinate him. This was almost immediately followed by him marching on Rostov, Gerasimov flying out, and WPMC seizing control of the Army HQ at Rostov. This was then followed by the "march on Moscow". This was all clearly a desperate attempt by Progozhin to protest and demonstrate about events and to try to save his own skin personally and hold his organisation together. It really was desparate, because it had little chance of succeeding.

This is what I love about economics. Aggregating peer reviewed, flawed research to come to a pretty decent estimation

@leodler

11 ай бұрын

What I don't love about economics is the amount of specious/flawed research that makes it through peer review!

@rainman1242

11 ай бұрын

That was sarcasm right ? Please tell me that was sacasm and that you do not really believe that averaging 3 turd magically produce roses.

@Emanon...

11 ай бұрын

What I hate about economics is political ideology disguised as a science. You should always doubt a person in a position of authority that never uses the phrase "I'm not sure".

@timjrgebn

11 ай бұрын

​@@Emanon... 100% this.

@TheMahayanist

11 ай бұрын

Economics usually is filled with bullshit, but yes, when economists actually do empirical work then it's very interesting.

As a natural scientist, I commend your clear explanation. One remark, however. The figure 7.37% makes no sense because the error in the estimate is much bigger than 0.01%. The figure 7% would be accurate enough.

@terry9397

11 ай бұрын

Yes, exactly. I just commented to point this out also (guess I should have read a few more comments first). Give a range of 7% to 8% would have sufficed. No point in giving an estimate to 2 decimal places given the size of the uncertainty.

How did the two researchers get hold of the data set from the Union Pay system(credit card), Yandex(search engine), now that Russia is not connected to the SWIFT system or use Google anymore for example?

@PT5-Shorts

11 ай бұрын

The secret ingredient is crime

@XGD5layer

11 ай бұрын

What does Google have to do with anything?

Nice video and explanation, Joeri. And great that you mention Vlad Vexler. Another expert that is happy to admit any limitations of knowledge available about specific topics. The intellectual honesty of both of you is well appreciated!

@puretone4970

11 ай бұрын

@@defcreator187 Sorry, I can't help you with your mental issues. You will need to contact a professional for that.

Finally a great video about the mercenary revolt. As all previous mercenaries revolts, it is all about payment delays

An economist has two jobs: making predictions and explaining why they didn't materialize

More than GDP, it is the fiscal deficit that is the ticking time-bomb for the Kremlin. By far their most important source of revenue is the hydrocarbon industry. Much their most profitable sector was the sale of refined products to the EC, which is now close to 100% sanctioned. They can't pivot these sales to Asia because China and India have their own refining capability and are only buying crude. Gas sales to the EC are also crippled, and the ability to pivot to Asia is limited by the lack of suitable pipelines. And finally, Russian oil production costs are very high, so price-caps and discounting mean that sales are barely covering costs. This means that while GDP is just about holding up, taxable profits have been slashed. Government revenue is down around 40% while war costs have driven up outlays by 50%. With half of their reserves frozen overseas, the remaining pot is haemorrhaging, with informed voices inside Russia warning that it will be exhausted well within the next 12 months. At that point they will have to resort to printing money, triggering ruinous inflation. The sanctions are biting hard, and the Kremlin is in very deep trouble indeed.

@innelator6941

11 ай бұрын

We have seen same words year ago. And as I can see Russia is still on the map and not planning to go bankrupt

@falloncj

11 ай бұрын

​@innelator6941 the crude sanctions were only introduced in December. The gas and refined sanctions in February of 2023. That's enormously relevant here. The EU and ROW didn't/couldn't decouple immediately and Russia was able to benefit from high prices last year. That's no longer true and their monthly deficits at the moment are crippling them. They've got 8 months maximum of reserves left to cover their current deficits and there's no sign of how they could plug the gap with current sanctions.

@SpaghetteMan

11 ай бұрын

its already been proven that the petrol sanctions and cap do nothing; the gas is just being rerouted to Turkey, India, and China who are then reselling it to the European and America at market rate. Whenever the US pulls more from the petrol reserves, OPEC+ immediately cut further productions to keep petrol prices up. the US can't hold back the petrol prices for long; those reserves will be depleted eventually. You're seriously misunderstanding the current situation.

@innelator6941

11 ай бұрын

@@falloncj the thing is that data varies from source to source. One source says that everything is not that bad, just changing markets. Another says that Russia will collapse in like 2 seconds. It’s all about the source. The info about reserves can be nothing but propaganda. This topic is THE WORST as you can’t escape propaganda from both sides

@ionnanskilliorus6877

11 ай бұрын

@@SpaghetteMan No I think it's you who has the misunderstanding. The price cap was never there to stop russia selling oil, it was to do the exact opposite. It can't choke supply to drive up demand because it only gets so much for what it sells. Which means there's plenty of oil on the market and the US won't have to dip further into its reserves.

Thank you for explaining and showing us where you got the prediction.

acknowledgment of limitation - spoken like a true academic. as always, informative and entertaining and just enough space to ruminate on the discussion.

Historically, not paying mercenaries has never ended well

Dankjewel voor uw analyse!

That was a good video. I am a complete airhead when it comes to economy but you explained it so well, even I understood it!

Did some researchers use light at night to estimate GDP? This approach seems promising as well.

Another excellent and intellectually honest video. I was pleasantly surprised by the Vlad Vexler shout out! He has been one of my favourite channels when it comes to gaining a better understanding of the Russian political situation. Maybe the internet isn't doomed to be a hub for bad media diets after all.

@jeffhicks8428

11 ай бұрын

Find better sources. I'd suggest learning some basic media literacy skills and critical thinking.

BBC: "What was your rank, soldier?" Average Wagner SS-NKVD conscript: "I think the judge called it First Degree Murder, Armed Robbery and Sexual Assault ...and the medic told me that I am HIV and TBC positive. That's why I got this job: I passed all the tests."

@allent.g560

11 ай бұрын

And the "Nato-trained, highly motivated Ukrainian soldiers" lost a city to them so what is your point? Oh wait, your profile pic checked out. My bad.

@gatocochino5594

11 ай бұрын

@@allent.g560 NATO this NATO that *inhales copium* NATO NATO NATO we're winning the war against NATO *inhales more copium* I am not coping!!! NATOfashfiljasfkl

@haruka6672

11 ай бұрын

​@@allent.g560a town for 8 months of fighting and now they already lost part of it

@hybridarmyoffreeworld

11 ай бұрын

@@allent.g560 ivan 🐐, your horde is c r a p !

@hybridarmyoffreeworld

11 ай бұрын

@@allent.g560 ордынские танки это конечно же далеко не лучшие в мире, но вот зато безусловно самые вежливые , которые ведь всегда общаясь с HIMARS снимают башни.

The title seems a bit clickbaity :) While I appreciate the many disclaimers and limitations of data sources where they are due, the sudden switch from "the effects of sanctions AND war efforts" to "the effects of sanctions" was somewhat unreasonable. I'm not arguing the -7.4%, but rather the credit given to the sanctions. For all we know, the impact of sanctions could be anywhere in between 0 and the -7.4%. And while it is highly unlikely, purely for the purpose of theoretical entertainment - it could be the case that the sanctions actually had a positive impact of 7.6%, while the switch to a war economy, emigration and other war related issues had an impact of -15%

I think the mutiny was some combination of all those factors, still, it's good to know that the sanctions had an impact.

@mrmuffins4224

11 ай бұрын

They haven't really had much of an impact. Take it from someone actually living in Russia 🤣

@MonsieurDeVeteran

11 ай бұрын

@@mrmuffins4224 sure botsky, suuure, now, go be a good peasant and go kiss Lenin's hand

@mrmuffins4224

11 ай бұрын

@@MonsieurDeVeteran Cope harder 🤣 we still have all the Western brands, too! They never left! 😝

@blink182bfsftw

11 ай бұрын

​@@mrmuffins4224ruskies coping on KZread never stops being funny

Big fan thanks a lot for the videos

Is there any way to tell the difference between economic contraction due to sanctions from a contraction that happens after the invasion, whether or not it is a consequence of the invasion, and is not a result of sanctions?

@dicknijmegen

11 ай бұрын

I think Money&Macro avoided this point so as not to muddy up his explanation of the counterfactual. I would imagine measuring this difference is even harder. Maybe you can try to make historical comparisons or something. Very unreliable.

This guy is great. I remember a macro econ professor saying economics and the 'invisible hand of the market' is valid because people act in their own best interest. I raised my hand and asked, "What about credit cards? And why does advertising work?"

@arthas640

11 ай бұрын

Credit cards can be in a persons best interest, all they are is a way to loan/borrow money and the vast majority of loans are taken out to pay for something you cant afford upfront or for some form of investment. Credit cards used by the working and middle classes make a lot of money for banks but they pale in comparison to the loans given to big businesses or to governments who are both using those loans primarily to invest in major purchases or to pay for some massive thing they lack the liquid capital to use. Advertising works by raising awareness for the product or service and by showing some benefit to the consumer. Quiet often they're trying to show you their product/service is cheaper and/or better than the competition, they're trying to show how it's in your interest to buy their product. They may say it's on sale, that its recommended by some authority (like "9 out of 10 dentists agree"), or they'll just try to show how amazing it is like the idealized fake food they use in restaurant ads. Also the "invisible hand of the market" does describe how individuals will act in their own self interest it's more about the market effects as a whole rather than strictly describing the behavior of an individual. It more describes the free market as a whole.

@kriptoniteXD

11 ай бұрын

I didn't get the point of credit cards. What is the connection between credit cards and best interest?

@emperorarima3225

11 ай бұрын

​@@kriptoniteXDi assume the point about credit cards is that people sometimes use them sub-optimally, incurring debt without gaining enough to warrant it.

Summary: are sanctions impacting Russia’s economy? Yes. How much are sanctions impacting Russia’s economy? Yes.

@TheBikeOnTheMoon

11 ай бұрын

every action has the reaction, Just look at EU economy after sanctioning Russia, it's going down hill.

@lokilaufeyson7035

11 ай бұрын

@@TheBikeOnTheMoon if only ruzzians weren't nazzies...

@dirckthedork-knight1201

11 ай бұрын

​@@lokilaufeyson7035*Ukrainians there fixed it for ya

What an amazing video. Discusses the most important studies, their major flaws, and mentions that while the specific numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, most of the data suggest a similar story of a sizeable drop in GDP relative to what is expected. I do want to add somethings and reiterate other things which were discussed at times but that people generally forget. The gist of it is that effect on 'true gdp' could be around 11-12%pt drop compared to a situation where Russia doesn't invade and all that happening while Russia's budget deficit is soaring in order to pay for the war, pay to prop up the economy, and reduction in tax revenue. 1. Russia's reported GDP is very likely being manipulated...there's all the incentives to and stopping the release of several important pieces of data would also suggest they are trying to hide data in order to manipulate GDP numbers. 2. GDP is being 'supported' in a large way by the heavy increase in government spending for the war. This is not healthy GDP growth, it's mostly an illusion. It's buildings things to destroy those things and those products add no value to people. Several estimates indicate Russia has spent over $100 billion on the war so far. That is about 30% of annual government spending pre-war. Some estimates say it's about 3% of GDP increase from war spending. 3. Russia got a boost in 2022 simply from re-opening of the economy post Covid. 4. Some of the GDP is being replaced with lower quality goods and services. 5. Government budget deficit is rising fast and not sustainable for long time. High spending on the war and trying to prop up the economy while tax revenues are down and half their currency reserves are frozen. The way I see it, Russia would get 4-5% growth in an alternate world where it doesn't invade. Russia it'self reported about -2% GDP growth (decline). Given item 1, it's likely approximately 2%pts lower. That gets us to 4%. That puts Russia at 8-9%pts lower than what it would have had if it didn't invade. But another 3% is being spent on things that don't add value which means the effect is probably more around 11-12%pts drop in GDP. All of that as government is having major issues with budget deficits. If this continues another 2 years, the Russian population will no longer be able to say "the sanctions aren't having an effect". I don't see how Russia can maintain this economy for more than a couple of years.

In a kleptocracy, there are no state or national interests. There are only individual oligarch interests.

Very good video. Thank you. Very clear.

My biggest advice to all western youtubers, that try covering topic of Russia is get some russian speaking to filter news. If anyone relies on the words of Kadyrov; then his knowledge of situation is absent Prigozhin’s behaviour has nothing to do with money as they’ve got plenty. There are many theories. Two of them are solid. But nobody thinks that he started it because he wasn’t getting paid

@meatrealwishes

11 ай бұрын

I thought he was supposed to get shares from the captured Ukrainian mines. He happily took pictures in the salt mine only to realize later it was gonna require too much work. Russians were highly disappointed by that news.

Great video! I definitely think that the Wagner incident is multi faceted but this economic analysis was superb.

Prigozhin rebelling because he and his troupe not being paid enough doesn’t make a lot of sense towards explaining his behavior. If mercenaries aren’t being paid enough, the typical responses are 1. To stop fighting, withdraw and move on, or threaten to do so until they get more money 2. Start contacting the enemy and shopping around for their deals. That doesn’t align well with the demands and statements put out by Prigozhin who demanded the leaders of the military be replaced, stated multiple times they were going back to the frontlines and were doing what they could to not impact the frontline, etc. Obviously Prigozhin could be and is likely lying about some of this (his threats about Russia having a new president indicates he probably was planning for the likelihood of taking out Putin well in advance), but if Putin had followed through on the official demands Prigozhin would have had very little room to negotiate for money behind closed doors. The fact that we know Wagner was officially to be rolled into the military by July 1st with Prigozhin no longer being independent, with him being the biggest and most vocal critic of the Russian government within Russia, that seems more like the existential risk to his life and influence that would cause him and his troupe to march of Moscow.

Thank you for a good, easy to follow explanation.

Some of the gaps in sanctions are being sealed, Russian oil sales are still happening. The STS (ship to ship) at sea oil transfers are being curtailed by banning the ships involved from docking in harbours. Some ecological restrictions are starting to bite after the Malaysian zone tanker fire.

The reduction of pollution is a serious sign of economic crash when they are trying to produce large amounts of new military hardware. High energy use.

@christopherbate6248

11 ай бұрын

Population or pollution ?

@trashtrashisfree

11 ай бұрын

@@christopherbate6248 both but specifically coal-burning is required to produce large amounts of Steel to produce tanks and other equipment.

Bedankt voor het delen 👍👍👍💯

Nice POV and perspective.

Great video. This video is quite enlightening the macro situation of Russia Federation after few, if not absence, of credible state's economic data.

I'm following William Spaniel, from (youtube.com/@Gametheory101) and connecting from the arguments of how autocratic governments work (The dictator's handbook from Smith and Bueno de Mesquina)... and your analysis makes total sense. By shrinking the treasury, the fight for the control of those resources becomes harder to manage. This is the economical aspect of it. We should expect more revelions like this, as long as the west emphasizes that sanctions are "temporary". Because a contester to power can just withdraw from Ukraine, not suffer the political cost and profit from the growth of the economy (and enlargement of the treasury) to "buy" more loyalty that currently Putin is able to afford

@TrollOfReason

11 ай бұрын

If true, than Kadyrov is likely already under scrutiny. His fighters are personally loyal to him, he's regularly paid off by Moscow, & is a profligate spender. Especially on his men, which he's already known to have blinged out with stockpiled western & chinese tacticool kit.

Bedankt for the concise succinct video. From an aussie born in Amsterdam. Good video.

Hi, how about making a video about worker cooperatives? About the good and the bad sides.

Personally I think the recent insurrection is a political play rather than an economic one and reviewing economics is a moot point. The benefits of consolidating Wagner into the Russian government is very easy to see because it expands its influence into a great many nations Wagner has strong ties in. The oil industry, which Wagner has its hands pretty involved in (Syria, Central African Rep.), is one Russia is not historically afraid to nationalize. So when the Wagner group started being used as a battering ram to take casualties and then had their ammo taken away, well, it’s not a surprise the fate of the group today is one being swallowed by Russia. And what can the WG do to stop it? It needs the Russian government to exist and survive.

@arthas640

11 ай бұрын

The whole reason they've been using Wagner is because it's technically separate from the army, that way they dont have to disclose casualties and have some limited deniability for atrocities or crimes committed by Wagner. Wagner does have business ties all over but those were mostly Russian operations, like in Sudan they aided the president after he requested aid from Putin and in the Central African Republic they were guided by a Russian government advisor helping the CAR president. In Syria they've often been used to supplement the existing overt and covert Russian units, used mainly in areas where Russia wants to claim deniability or to commit war crimes like clearing neighborhoods by destroying the buildings with civilians still inside. They're already effectively a special forces unit what with the military support coupled with limited autonomy, but by keeping them _technically_ a PMC it not only keeps them more under Putins control than the military's (Prigozhin owes his position and survival to Putin personally), it also bypasses red tape like having to report casualtieis to the military or risk having the public find out, as well as bypassing some government oversight, it also gives them the deniability. Nationalizing the company removes what little deniability they have and eliminates most of the reasons to use the PMC especially seeing as they're not even particularly effective a fighting force after losing so many men and being forced to take raw conscripts.

@bobbyaxelrod5959

11 ай бұрын

This is the dumbest take I’ve seen yet that completely lacks any understanding of what Wagner has been to Russia before now.

@nadtz

11 ай бұрын

But given Wagner has by all accounts doing the states bidding since 2014 what was the impetus for Russia to absorb Wagner now? That very well might be economic as well as political.

@TheSwedishHistorian

11 ай бұрын

well Russia always had influence because of Wagner, its just that Wagner is not trustworthy anymore

I don't necessarily know if it was about sanctions but it was definitely about money. The Russian government has not been paying soldiers what they agreed. It must have sucked for Shoigu to send millions of dollars to Wagner so they could prance about in night vision goggles. Meanwhile his own soldiers couldn't afford boots.

@trololoev

11 ай бұрын

Man, some russian marine group has more equipments that anyone in the world. So it depending of who exactly are you talking about, but so far civilian support with mostly with small drones and sniper rifles, because in everything else supportin from MoD is ok.

@augustusomega4708

11 ай бұрын

@@trololoev he is bullsht man, dont worry, we know Russia is strong. He say that to pray for his unicorn angel to help Ukro nazi

@epicmonkeydrunk

11 ай бұрын

@@trololoev some not all.

@kingace6186

11 ай бұрын

Reportedly, the reason why Russian soldiers didn't stop Wagner's advance from Ukraine to Rostov-on-don to Moscow was that they were underpaid and underequipped than they're Wagner counterparts. Essentially, "I don't get paid enough for this shit."

@augustusomega4708

11 ай бұрын

@@kingace6186 whatever the Russian military do or dont do, I assure you my speculative turnip friend, is what President Putin authorized.

This is the first video of yours I have ever seen, and wow! Your presentation is so well done, even though I am not even slightly interested in the subject, I am watching intently. You are incredibly intelligent and I think I am impressed by your very healthy pragmatic considerations.

Thanks for your work

"The day we took hostages, we became mercenaries. And mercenaries get paid!" -Captain Frye "The Rock" 1996

Great video. I know of some of these statistics (like the industrial pollution one) but had not seen all and had not really put them into this context before. As you said, political context is important though. I would personally not think Prigozhin's personal bank is the single catalyst, but it likely played a role. I think what we are seeing is a increasingly squeezed political system. Putin, his military commanders and the oligarchs are squeezed from sanctions, from supporters because of few results in Ukraine and from internally as they are fighting over who gets parts of the dwindling money in their system.

I really enjoyed your analysis. The calculus of corruption changes dramatically when there's nothing left to steal. I think a lot of Russia's elites are going to be in turmoil as the sanctions bite and Russia's economy shrinks. It would be interesting as a follow up video if you analyzed the economics of corruption and how economic growth or decline affects corruption and corrupt governments, especially as regards Russia.

Awesome video! ❤

Wagner lost ~25k people in a year and had 25-50k before the mutiny. 1 billion dollars for 50-75k people does not split well (~13k-20k a year in pay/incentives on average)

@guydreamr

11 ай бұрын

Maybe, but let's not forget that Wagner has major concessions in gold, diamond, and mineral mines in Africa which generates large amounts of revenue as well.

@neodym5809

11 ай бұрын

Wagner has other sources of revenue (African gold and Diamant mines), and for Russia, this is a good wage.

@totalnerd5674

11 ай бұрын

If we consider that only the survivors are paid anything, and taking the average of ~37000 men, each guy gets about ~$27000 a year or $3 an hour, assuming they don't pay anything on equipment.

@puretone4970

11 ай бұрын

Were the freed convicts paid? I mean with money and not just with their freedom? I'm not sure about that.

@iambicpentakill

11 ай бұрын

We'd need to know the cost of living in the places where the soldiers came from, to know what is a good wage to them.

«Вечно пьяный, до оскотинения, завистлив, жаден, злобен, туп. Миф о русской бане мгновенно рассеивается после того как пройдёшь мимо типичного русского. Запах перегара и давно не стираных порток отвратителен сам по себе, но к нему примешивается ещё и запах кислой капусты и прокисших щей, до которых он, русский человек, большой охотник. Любимое занятие - лежание на печи и мечты о лучшей жизни. Эти мечты постоянно подогреваются правящей верхушкой. К наукам не склонен, по причине своего отупения в следствии неумеренного потребления браги. Брагу потребляет по причине того, что не может выгнать самогона. Не хватает терпения. Из разнообразия языков, на матушке Земля, в совершенстве владеет одним - матерным. Физически вроде и здоров, но в то же время страдает манией величия и шовинизма. Причисляет себя к третьему Риму, а являет собой вторую Содом и Гоморру. Агрессивен. Очень агрессивен. Что подтверждается его постоянным захватом чужих земель, при этом утверждается там как хозяин и всё вокруг считает своим. Описание портрета русского можно дополнять бесконечно, однако это будет не столько утомительно читателям сколь противно. Увы». Максим Горький, «Собирательный образ русского человека»

@innelator6941

11 ай бұрын

Это всё классно, но зачем ты хохла описал? Ты когда в России последний раз бывал? Или у тебя такой круг общения, с перегаром и обосранные?

This was a very enlightening video. Good point about how estimates are generated.

Great piece..!!

Albeit true, there is a bigger reason the cash payments were not happening and it is because Wagner and Russian MoD head Shoigu were in a shadow war with each other. Wagner was going to be turned into a part of the Russian Army as well and their command put under Shoigu, which Prig would not allow. Basically it is two generals fighting over control on the army as well as how the war will go.

Love your very humble explanation. It doesn't scratch the itch we all have for certainty but it is much more intellectually honest. It also reminds me of an old joke. If you laid all the economists in the world head to foot, they would never come to a conclusion.

BRAVO! VERY INSIGHTFUL!

Like they say.....follow the money. It makes sense that Prigohin would be upset about not being paid or not having enough money and/or military equipment. And also the war isn't going well. All that adds up IMO.

I wish your discussion about the difficulty in creating absolute certain TRUTH in cases where one has bad data, flawed models, no counterfactuals, and various confounding variables should be presented to every adult human being at least one per day. Many people are just too stupid to ever understand, but even if just few more did understand, then I think the world would be in a much better position to solve problems. Thank you.

An economist in an interview to dw news said Russia isn't making any money by selling oil, what do you think?

@libryttrs7881

11 ай бұрын

😂🤡

@Peter.F.C

11 ай бұрын

I think Germany isn't making any money because it doesn't have any Russian oil (or gas) and they can thank the Americans and the puppet government they put in place for that! 😂🎉😅 What a pathetic vassal state Germany is, that the Americans blow up your gas lifeline and there's not even a murmur of protest!

@haruka6672

11 ай бұрын

They are making money but way less than half from before.

@panzerschliffehohenzollern4863

11 ай бұрын

They made money sure. But the buyer also lowballing the price and milking Russia for all it worth in oil while doing it.

@innelator6941

11 ай бұрын

Idk why, but all west name Russia a petrol station, like 100% of budget is by oil. But from what I found, it’s around 20 or 30 % (varies from source)

Wow, shouting out Vlad, well done. I love it when my favourite youtube channels acknowledge each other!

cool analysis ❤

It's always about money. The source of all the worlds problems.

@casteretpollux

11 ай бұрын

Money is essential for large scale exchange of goods. At least it was, pre A1. It should now be possible to develop new forms of distribution, not profit based.

That's very bold assumption. Sanctions make things harder, but can't destroy economy. Far poorer countries like Iran and North Korea learned to bypass them, and I'm sure Russians will find a way) As for conflict Wagner vs MOD you completely missed the point.

@HeadsFullOfEyeballs

11 ай бұрын

Right, but Iran and North Korea absolutely wouldn't be able to fund the kind of war Russia is currently fighting.

@dirckthedork-knight1201

11 ай бұрын

It already has found many ways to get by them

Excellent explanation!!!

Very interesting, thanks 🙏

There is another thing reducing russia's GDP; workforce. In 2021 the workforce was 73,368,000 who created a GDP of 1.779 billion $; i.e. 22,247.6 $/nose. russia lost 200k kia and 600k WiA, 50k were thrown into prison for protesting, and 800k fled the country. Though many of those to replace the war losses weren't working, a 2% loss of workforce will reduce GDP accordingly.

@kev792

11 ай бұрын

Wait Russia lost 200k Kia?? I thought it was around 50,000-70,000 ish kia and the rest wounded, for a total of about 200,000-300,000 casualties?

@dirckthedork-knight1201

11 ай бұрын

Are you seriously believing all these ridiculous numbers

@andreasarnoalthofsobottka2928

11 ай бұрын

@@dirckthedork-knight1201 The 800k refugees came from the respective UN- organisation, the 50 k came from a human rights watch organisation, for the 200k KiA I developed my own way to figure out (with help of Oryx) and the 3 WiA for each KiA has been a constant for all wars since the Russo- Japanese war of 1905 and was confirmed by a russian separatist leader. You can question my method of calculating the KiA, but then you really should come up with s/th better.

Sanctions are just one more failed weapon used by the US against its enemies. Wagner's importance decreased as the Russian military operation grew to the desired level to take up the work load from the PMC. As much as the British and Americans would like to convince themselves to the opposite, their own economies are in a perilous situation, while the Russian economy is growing.

@robertfarrow5853

11 ай бұрын

Wow, lay off the wacky baccy! Half your best young innovators and tech savvy left the minute Ukraine was invaded, at least a quarter jumped before the first mobilisation. You can't grow without intelligent staff and company set ups. Your death rate is below the birth rate. Your people are unable to grow without consumers.

_"Was it this or that?"_ I have no idea!! I'm collecting information about this unfortunate war from various sources, but I'm pretty sure I won't do it fast enough to be able to predict until after history itself explains what will already have happen.

Could you do a video on circular economy or buying second hand clothing?

-Ваня, пора на войну -А с кем воюем? -С фашистами 🇷🇺. - Отлично! А против кого?"

@wilsonball7171

11 ай бұрын

против xixлов

@hybridarmyoffreeworld

11 ай бұрын

@@wilsonball7171 Сползает по крыше, старик кривоногов, пронырливый наш кэ-гэ-бист... Ползёт злато-ёршик, мокры его брюки, он стар и желает в сортир...

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@mathewlark8448

11 ай бұрын

She's frequently engaged on the platform known as TelegramS, utilizing the aforementioned username ....

@mathewlark8448

11 ай бұрын

DIXONINVEST that her user name

@Henrygeorge67

11 ай бұрын

This is the kind of information that we don't get from most KZreadrs I will get in touch with her right now

@levidaniel46

11 ай бұрын

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@Winifred_Wood

11 ай бұрын

I had bad experiences investing alone until I met Ms. harriet I started my stock trade within 7 Weeks after trading with Ms. harriet dixon again I recovered with more profit

So it’s a pointless job, in Russia even before the Sanctions there was a GIGANTIC shadow sector of the economy, but now to bypass the sanctions they use it all in a row; it’s impossible to calculate the exact data. For example, the illegal alcohol market is 30-40%, the illegal segaret market is 13-15%, despite the fact that both products are subject to mandatory registration and marking with excise signs. We are not supplied with spare parts for sports cars and therefore now everyone who can and wants makes them themselves, no one cares about patents and intellectual property rights. Also, for example, in Russia it is now prohibited to use foreign software at critical information infrastructure facilities (CII) and services for its use without agreement with the authorized body. That is, the growth of production of domestic software that you cannot see from a satellite and cannot be understood by gas emissions. .

Really, really interesting analysis

It's almost laughable how far from reality most of these stories about the Wagner incident are. The beef seems to be between Dmitri Utkin, the founder of Wagner, and Shoigu. Utkin, a former GRU (military intelligence) officer who Prigozhin refers to as his commander, is the one calling the shots. Prigozhin is just doing what he's told. If he ran off like a loose cannon and did this on his own over money, Putin would never have let him just relocate to Belarus, he would be long dead by now. Even if you don't know the back story, common sense should tell you there's more to the story than what is being reported in western media.

@advancetotabletop5328

11 ай бұрын

One YT video speculates that Prig is a public hero enough that Putin’s not going to kill him off until a few months ago. I guess we’ll find out in a few months! :/

@cptrelentless80085

11 ай бұрын

Isn’t all media western? Who is watching Russian media? It’s banned everywhere

The objective was not to cut costs, but to bring the various PMCs, under the MOD umbrella for better unified control. Wagner was the only one which refused to sign the contract and from August they would not receive any funding. Prighozin saw this as a threat to his earnings as well as looming loss of control of his own men, especially as he was recently even banned from recruiting convicts, which made up the bulk of his forces fighting in Ukraine. It was sheer loss of monetary gains & loss of control of his own militia that made him the sworn enemy of the generals whom he regarded as the architect of this policy to undermine him financially & militarily. Putin was never challenged, but this rivalry did create a huge PR debacle for him and since perceptions and optics from the exoskeleton of political power, that visage was certainly tarnished, even though his authority was not diminished in any way (except in the wishful thinking of his adversaries (and even some allies) in govts and media which were hostile to him) and is expectedly being flogged for all it is worth as a propaganda weapon.

@chrissmith2114

11 ай бұрын

It was a cost cutting measure by Ruzzian military, the fact is that they had to pay Wanger, but they do not pay Ruzzian soldiers.

@ChucksSEADnDEAD

11 ай бұрын

​@@chrissmith2114 if the contracts are issued by MoD the pay should be similar. It's in Russia's interest to have a small army of high skill, high motivation and highly paid soldiers which are superior to mobilized men.

@chrissmith2114

11 ай бұрын

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD Try telling Ruzzian conscripts and their families that they got paid.... If Wagner did not get paid they go home, If Ruzzian soldiers not paid what do they do - complain to Putin ?

@Crudebug

11 ай бұрын

@@chrissmith2114 The main objective was to bring all PMCs under the MoD's command. There is no clarity if those contracts only applied to the chain of command or also reduced payments to those contractors who signed up. All PMCs signed up, except the Wagner Group. Apparently (not confirmed) under the new contracts, the fighters would be directly paid by the MoD. Wagner paid a fraction of the money assigned for wages, especially to their convict cadres in Ukraine, who only received fighter wages after their 6 month term expired after which they were free men who could return home or join as regular fighters. Most stayed on. Prighozin did not like the terms of the contract and believed this was dine deliberately by the generals to undermine his financial profits and military clout. So cost reduction was not the primary aim of the policy, but a welcome and beneficial result of the new policy. Note that the Russian Forex reserves are climbing, despite the war expenditure. So a few millions more to the PMCs, were not really a cause of concern for the MoD. But their defiance certainly was.

@dirckthedork-knight1201

11 ай бұрын

​@@chrissmith2114Cringe speech cringe beliefs

Whoa dude! Love the science education/explanation. Completely underutilized in mainstream reporting... Keep it up!

All this really shows is that economics done in a western fashion is about as useful as reading entrails. Sanctions did not hit Russia very hard (once Swift had been replaced) because it is a mega-mixed economy crammed full of natural resources wanted by everyone. Russia could feed and water vast areas of Asia, the middle east and Africa with good old fashioned engineering so staples get from its vast lands to customers. Anyone studying Russia will be aware that it had already become a Eurasian economy when it, sensibly and simply, weighed up western and eastern market health and likely futures. Few realize that gas/oil products to Germany etc were from its surplus at a few places in its western regions. Russia clearly anticipated lessening trade with Europe when its containerized gas and different grades of oil production dwarfed what was sold to especially Germany. Re cereals, while traditionally produce from the chernozem belt in 3 countries (but with Russian consortia owning approx 40% of Ukraine's production) traveled by sea to southern Europe we saw that the mined Black Sea obliged Russia and Kazakhstan to explore different routes. While over half of production still went via Turkey in coast-hugging southern routes we also saw surprisingly efficient using rail and accessing deeper seas in the Gulf and Arabian Sea and huge ships which were probably Chinese or were Russian and adapted from grain products. The context of this trade brings us close to China's BRI plans, a Caspian Leg, Turkey being important still but Iran being vital. Russia has also made more Arctic progress than is typically reported and its list of customers not counting China [the "near Arctic partner"] is impressive. Finished goods from Asia use this route and can receive additional cargo from the 3 'gigaports' Russia opened in the last 7 years. Picking you up on one point, automobile production was indeed down but Russia was a never much in that arena. Have you not wondered how come Chinese EVs are now flooding the European and N.American markets and how this was timed? It is worthwhile you economists having a close look at Russian hybrid military/civilian aviation and report what you find.

There is absolutely no way Russia couln't afford to pay Wagner their salaries, 1 billion is very little in this context. I believe there were other factors. Interesting video though, especially the part with satellites collecting industry data from space :D

@macmcleod1188

11 ай бұрын

Russia is running a deficit of 26 to 40 billion dollars *per month*. So yea... they are having money problems.

@davieb8216

11 ай бұрын

Yep, might not have been just a billion

@skp8748

11 ай бұрын

​@@macmcleod1188you got a source on that?

@SeanCSHConsulting

11 ай бұрын

lulz cool story

@macmcleod1188

11 ай бұрын

@@skp8748 It's russian published economic data and available thru an easy google for russian deficit spending from many sources. Since it's russian published data- it's an underestimate.

overall I'd say Ukrainian war efforts have costed us WAY more than western sanctions most companies when pulling out of Russia simply sold their assets to local companies and other international companies willing to stay without disrupting the production in any way

@Iamkcs2c

11 ай бұрын

Good to see someone say "us" with reference to the RF ... And to followup with a relevant observation. I wish bad things on the RF, but you remind me not to get too carried away.

@ArawnOfAnnwn

11 ай бұрын

I heard the Chinese have simply replaced many western firms. Like Alibaba replacing Amazon.

@rogofos

11 ай бұрын

@@Iamkcs2c did a thought ever occur to you that I may be living here? I dont support the invasion of Ukraine and never really supported Putin but I'm still Russian

@shooster5884

11 ай бұрын

@@ArawnOfAnnwn but chinese companies are charging a fortune because they now have a monopoly into the Russian market with many essential products..

@OctavChelaru

11 ай бұрын

Help to Ukraine compared to the impact of the Russian imperial war on the global economy is literally peanuts. LE: Now I understand you are Russian and against the war which changes the perspective, agreed with OP.

I think this analysis was fascinating. As always❤

3:49 has a typo on the Title of the graph

Yale School of Economics HAS PUBLISHED peer-reviewed studies that demonstrate that Russia is manipulating its statistics. These have been published for a while now, and just because you are ignoring these studies, does not mean they do not exist.

@aleksandarstojanovic6248

11 ай бұрын

can you mention a few?

@guydreamr

11 ай бұрын

Names? Titles?