Did India Really Witness An Exit Poll Stock Market Scam? A Look at the Suspicions And Concerns
Between 31/5 and 4/6 did India witness its first exit poll stock market scam? Praveen Chakravarty, Chairman, All India Professionals' Congress, explains his suspicions and concerns to Karan Thapar for The Wire.
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In an interview to discuss both his and Rahul Gandhi’s reasons for suspecting that India may have witnessed its first exit poll stock market scam between 31/5 and 4/6, Praveen Chakravarty, Chairman, All India Professionals’ Congress, gives details of the facts that are a cause for concern.
First, the buying and selling of shares on the National Stock Exchange on the 31st of May suddenly doubled compared to a day earlier i.e. 30th May. This he says is “very rare”.
Second, 58% of the stock market activity on 31st May was because of foreign investors. This is established by NSE data. But during the previous week they were not buying in such large proportions and, in fact, were “net sellers”.
Third, 24 hours later on 1st June the exit polls were published almost unanimously giving a huge majority to the BJP and in some cases up to 400 seats to the NDA. Thereafter the stock market boomed to a record high.
Praveen Chakravarty asks is this chronology a coincidence or could there be more to it which we need to investigate and discover? As he puts it: “Surely, it cannot be a mere coincidence that an extremely rare event like doubling of stock market trading happened exactly one day before multiple exit polls unanimously projected an enormous victory for Modi.”
On the 3rd of June, after the exit polls, the stock market skyrocketed and so if foreign investors, who bought shares on the 31st, sold on the 3rd they would have made a very substantial profit. Does that explain their activity on the 31st of May? Is there any connection between the exit polls and foreign investors? Could foreign investors have commissioned their own polls? And who are these foreign investors? Were they acting for themselves or might they have been proxies for someone in India? Finally, is a JPC the best way of investigating this matter rather than leaving it to SEBI to do on its own?
The interview also discusses how ordinary investors fared between 31/5 and 4/6. Finally, it briefly touches upon a much more technical and complex issue i.e. the sharp increase in the trading of derivatives. Was a lot of money made or lost through derivatives as well?
Though this may sound like a very complicated and technical subject it is actually not difficult to follow at all. Mr. Chakravarty has explained things simply and clearly and in a very balanced manner. There is also a 4-minute video that sets out the facts before the discussion begins.
If you want to understand the reasons for concern and suspicion - and I repeat this is only concern and suspicion - then this is a simple and easy 30-minute way of informing yourself.
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Пікірлер: 257
And we have the most important issue being discussed once again by the wire.. Excellent Karan sir 👏👍
@hbl695
11 күн бұрын
Absolutely true
We need more Karan Thapar to get true spirit of India.
@rajkumarganesan9417
11 күн бұрын
Rightly said brother 💕
When two hard-core criminals are sitting at the helm what else can citizens expect
@ivangomes2411
11 күн бұрын
The irony is that the "two hard core criminals" are voted to power by the people of India. Its so sad that so many in India believe in these two persons. Its a breakdown of the democracy, engineered by these two people.
@user-vj4zc8em5m
8 күн бұрын
101% Right.
Being an Investor and trader since last 5 years, I cautioned in my own level on 3rd June itself that it's a scam, market is going to fall on 4th june post result and it's being done by BJP through its machinery to earn money for buying MPs. I was confident because once Mukesh Ambani was penalised by SEBI for insider trading in the past.
@prince141080
11 күн бұрын
If Mukesh Ambani had done the insider trading in USA, he would have been in Jail. But in India, SEBI just fines them.
Absolutely correct BJP is never interested about common peoples. They are business minded peopels And any thing we can expect.
@Chucku153
11 күн бұрын
They use religion to manipulate the voters
Never in the history of the world has there ever been a head of country talk about the stock market like this. Think about the impression it creates in the world.
@chineduogbonna6947
11 күн бұрын
You don’t want the truth to come out? That’s even more dangerous for stock market.
@ivangomes2411
11 күн бұрын
Modi has used his position to pratically sell out the country to his allies. For what gain, is the question we need answers to..!!
@sandeepverma.official
11 күн бұрын
The head doesn't care at all. We had a chance to change it, but that too faded away!
2 honest professionals contributing to the real democracy of India🎉🎉🎉
@PraakashRanjann
10 күн бұрын
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Excellent discussion - with a person who was on Bombay Stock Exchange board. His credibility is excellent. And his observations, including that everyone in the market knows who benefitted is very interesting. Go JPC!!!
This is an extremely serious issue. If the NDA government is a party of the people and by the people and for the people, they must allow for a JPC into the Stock Market scam and the JPC must keep the public informed of the proceedings on a regular basis.
Mainstream media could never cover this. Sad state of affairs. Much power to the Wire but more people need to know about this
@sureshmurty6523
11 күн бұрын
This is the real media now. Only bhakts watch tv news. Hundreds of channels are controlled by Modi and his regional friends in politics. He has tried to kill news completely but technology has come to the rescue by way of social media. All these yellow channels and print media will eventually go bankrupt as KZread and more advanced platforms develop. Musk is already talking of a global mini satellite system with thousands of them beaming down programs to Earth. We will have global hand held devices costing about fifty dollars per year.
Will the Supreme 'Joke' of India woke up after Modi's significant drop of strength in the Lok sabha?????
@jattworld1984
10 күн бұрын
Unlikely
Rahul Gandhi ji was right.
@patrioticindian57
11 күн бұрын
Is right I would say. This stinks.
@Letstalkaboutit-vividly
11 күн бұрын
I admire Rahul Gandhi.. but people need to stop making all this about him... it's not just him, but his team of people who work together as well as experts and (unbiased) journalists.. If we worship RG just like BJP supporters did Modi, he can also become a megalomaniac in no time... Indians need to learn to stop worshipping famous and powerful people..
@PraakashRanjann
10 күн бұрын
Who is this?
@ashwani1948
9 күн бұрын
@@patrioticindian57 ok
It means Rahul was always right PM is a puppet in the hands of Ambani and Adani
@rajkumarganesan9417
11 күн бұрын
Oh my goodness 💕 Unbelievable hidden truth brought out by u brother. Yes the culprits none other than the Adanis and Ambanis henchmen of Modi.
@chiragmahabal8678
11 күн бұрын
Anyone who comes into power will bend to corporate money. Rahul Gandhi PM ban gaya toh he will have to be nice to them as well. It's just how the world works
@Dadasahab1234
11 күн бұрын
Congress has always bowed before industrialists .Adani, Ambani , Azim Premji, Tata,BIRLAS ,K.P singh etc .They became billioner s during their regime.
@radoprado1552
11 күн бұрын
@@Dadasahab1234 u didn't understand it fully still
@radoprado1552
11 күн бұрын
The difference between modi and rahul is that rahul is not fake person as like modi
Salute to Thapar sir good to see you
This is very very insightful......being a son of a middle class family, this erroneous comment about purchase of stocks had directly affected me .....please do continue this factual research if it was done with malafide intent to scam the middle class of India since we act and behave like a herd of sheep and follow and this time I feel like I have followed directly to the butchers shop to be slaughtered financially.
What is the use of winning the whole world but losing thy soul.....?! Thank you wire.....
Have a JPC ask SEBI for kyc of top 5 FII sellers on June 04, you will have your answer...FII don't buy sell PSUs unless they are shell accounts
Proper Investigations must be made to come out with truths in the interest of the country.
JAIL for Modi Shah & Nimmo tai
First ask the PM and HM if they had followed their own advice and purchased stock, if not why not?
The fact that Modi amended the rules in the SEBI to facilitate Adani Groups to violate the mandatory requirement of 25 per cent shares in the hands of the ordinary public shareholders is undoubtedly a blatant bias in favour of Adani and Modi should be investigated by Lokpal.However, the Chairperson of Lokpal currently is former Supreme court judge A.M. Khanwilkar, who in his entire stint never gave a judgement that went against the interest of the BJP and Modi.
@PraakashRanjann
10 күн бұрын
Cutlet🤣🤣🤣
My humble request to "The Wire". Please start a new podcast. "Water with karan Thapar". It will be all time of
@rayzimmerman6740
11 күн бұрын
as opposed to "Koffee with Karan"? How Unique!
When PM and HM incites investor to buy stocks on a particular time and the market crashes after two days what does it mean?
@batauri
11 күн бұрын
Proxy investors were to sell...
SEBi has banned stock market advice by entities not registered with SEBI. Both Modi& Shah gave stock mkt advice. SEBI has recently fined many imcluding well known brokerages crores for this, most well known case PR Sundar fined 60 crore. Now let us see how much SEBI fines thes two.
@rayzimmerman6740
11 күн бұрын
This wasn't professional advice, and no fees was charged. If you are at a social gathering, and someone gives similar advice, you can't hold them accountable.
*Every Indian must watch this episode to understand Biggest Stock Market SCAM* 🙏
I am giving data set what I usually study. Open Interest (OI) of NIFTY CE 22500 June series increased by 8,11,900 at a price range of Rs. 581.45 to Rs. 708.95 on 31-05-2024 and on 03-06-2024 the OI decreased by 8,12,000 at an average price of 850.00 to 1092.85. Generally, if it was the sellers activity, they shifts their CE position to higher strike price , i.e., OI of CE of lower strike price decreases and OI of CE of higher strike price increases. But, surprisingly the OI of CE 23000 decreased by 710325 on 03-06-2024 which was also increased by 451925 on 31-05-2025. This is clear that the action was of buyers and they knew the exit poll forecast was a mockery and they exited from their position.
@SodiumIodider
11 күн бұрын
Absolutey! Perfect analysis. I wish I had bought a few ITM calls on the 31st of May just before markets closed.
Adani himself is the foreign investor via shell companies . He and his family has a reputation for it. Doesn't he?
Shocking
@rajkumarganesan9417
11 күн бұрын
Shocking to the core. Rightly said brother 💕
We will never know like Pegasus or hindenburg or rafael or PM Cares etc, to name a few, as the current Govt will not allow any investigation.
Why Is this Issue not all over social media ?
Country’s financial affairs run by proxy Adani/Ambani
Major Game was played in Options Trading.
Good Karan Sir.
Very very poor leadership by our top politicians who commented on the stock market. SEBI is very tough on companies on compliances so that the markets are not subject to fraud and insider trading. And here is Modi, Amit & Seetha all commenting on the market. What's going on? I heard that Amit's son is a big player. This certainly needs a JPC enquiry, if nothing else but to send a signal to future manulators and reinforce the faith in the markets.
बड़ा गोलमाल है, 'जानकारों' की ये सीधी चाल है, सिर्फ थोड़े लोग ही, हुए मालामाल है, बड़ा गोलमाल है
Sure it is.. It is time to have Strong and solid OPPOSITION... Do not let indians /India taken for a ride. Need Merit based Economy; All work; all employed; Free and fair. Manipulating STOCK markets is the Greatest Scam.at the cost of poor innocent People? Never
Unbelievable 😮 Thank you for bringing this Karan 🙏
Good work Mr. Karan!!! Thankyou for it ❤🍀
Does the same foreign entities bought the shares again when the market tumbled? If yes then this would be certainly an insider trade act!
Please start a new podcast Water with karan Thapar
They were artificially lifting the sensex and exited before the results. We can make out a lot from this.
When no channel is discussing about this issue, thank you THE WIRE for bringing this in your channel. We people from andhra know about this scam happened, we common people were discussing but none media. Who can solve this and it must be proved to make our democracy alive. I request your channel to make this a news all over the world, bring truth in real and make repolling happen🙏
Media needs to cheer for this investigation. Follow up persistently. Rather than run horoscope series on when NDA allaince will fall apart.
This is an era of a new beginning . Extremely excellent and in depth analysis of the matter under deliberation with logic and justification . Your fearless and meanlngful journalism with substance as usually enlightens your viewer's with the truth . Many thanks for your sincere and hard work .Journalism in this country is alive because of brave intelligent and experienced journalist like your good self .satyamev jayate. Vande mataram .jai hind .
Question is: were exit polls on purpose falsify the prediction?
Periyar, a tall dravidian leader expressed dissent for southern states to be forcibly coerced under "one Indian" nation. He wished they remain like Taiwan under UK. Many now wish it had happened 😂
Brilliant answers by Pravin C
There should be playlist for ALL Karan Thappar interview apart from the 34 interview playlist.. So we dont have to scroll through many other videos while ssearching for Mr KARAN Thapar interrviews.. Thanku
Mutual funds are custodians of public money so loss is of investors and not of MFs
Only ONE BHAKT COMMENT TILL NOW?? Come on guys, it's no fun without you....
It was a scam , i guess..
Proper investigation is must. If BJP is clean, they need to co-operate with the investigation and prove themselves innocent
I believe, today, or yesterday, PM has mentioned the names of 2 PSUs and has suggested people to buy.
I have started watching these interviews with a glass of water😂😂 dosti bani rahe 🤔
Insightful
Excellent discussion on a substantial issue. Very educative too. An investigation is a must.
Before 2024 👉Where lies flows continuously and truth stops continuously too 😀👈 But now Truth roaring like a Lion 👉 it's just like an INDIA 🇮🇳🫵
Is there any reason for EC for selecting Tuesday for counting.
How come Sebi circuit did not cut off in face of such volatility?
Thanks
Pradators rule the day !?.
Excellent talk
Best Anchor of the era
Very clearly explained. Absolutely no doubt.
When three top level leaders were giving an advisory and encouraging people for investing in stock market, there’s every reason to suspect a scam. The best way to get right answers is a JPC. Mr. Praveen used very polite words to describe SEBI. Another question, as I’m not much aware of the rules. Why SEBI doesn’t have regulations of ‘full disclosure’ for FIIs. Will it not help in bringing more transparency and minimize the chances and magnitude of market manipulation?
What another minister said after the crash is a wonderful example of our bankrupt mind?
MSCI rebalancing happened on 31st May. That brought in a lot of foriegn investment as weightage of Indian stocks was increased in several global indexes.
Very informative. Thanks.
Excellent.
Sebi chases and penalises small unregistered advisers even who advise on telegram gps. But here sebi itself seems to be involve itself in cheating and inside trading. Sebi has its credibility as a public institution. It's proving to an economic ally of BJP like CBI, ED, IT, RBI, SBI etc.
It's interesting to note that the FIIs were net sellers for many days preceding 31st. Presuming that this would have been the case on 31st also by the actual FIIs, then we are not looking at a mere 3000 crore buy but much more than that by the so called cronies or what ever.
Sebi should have the list of biggest buyers and sellers of this week. And for future have a week of no trading window
Very important talk
Thanks!
Am I correct in assuming that People trust Modi administration for better market conditions vs Gandhi? Will Gandhi Admin not be good for strong markets? Markets like Modi over MMS Administration. Is it correct?
A comprehensive investigation is a must to find out the truth
At that time I thought it’s one of those Jumlas but now I realize how sinister it was
very good explanation
Very nice
Political leaders are not supposed to give stock advice to people. Nowhere is that done.
There are few fallacies Plz specify what was the position of FIIs (bought and sold) on Monday and on Tuesday. That would clear the position
Que. How did All the Exit Polls come out Exactly on the Same Day ⁉️
Time to conduct elections online on Saturday and declare results by the same day by midnight. ..no exit poll business and no speculations......EC needs to modernize totally and scrap all these 3-month political mela...Modi needs to give the guarantee on foolproof digitization of elections. RaGa needs to fight for the total digitalization of voting.
Does the MSCI rejig including Indian stocks have something to do with this?
Those, and not ordinary people, who exhorted the investors in media to indirectly buy shares on hinting that the market will boom are in violation of the regulated rules of which they are supposed to uphold and follow.
Funny that he was mentioning Austria, yes that case happened and another fun fact .. prior to this in 2019 the same chancellor had to step down because he partner in the government, got caught up in some scam, where he wanted to buy in himself in some media companies and make them the leaders in the market, kind of what happened in India now and he wanted to make .. the last few years were crazy in regards of corruption, in Austria :D
It could have been very well buying in cash and futures and sell far of puts in down prices....the puts were being sold at high premium before election and then the next day when the market surged..the puts crashed they would have covered those sell postions..
FPI volume fell on 3rd June from 58% to 20%...so safe to conclude that fpi did not sell to make profit. So the volume of retail investors on 31st may and 1st June needs to be looked at for this allegation to be sustained
Retail investors might have gone broke on 4th June and FIIs might have had a windfall by buying at much lower prices. That's beside the question. The real and important issue is: Was it legal and ethical for the PM, HM, FM, who have all inside information, to speculate a bull market and exhort the public to buy stocks l?
Definitely a scam happened. I trade in the stock markets and I saw massive buying volumes on the charts on the 31st of May in the last 30 mins before markets closed. Check it out for yourselves in Nifty charts. People sold Puts or bought Calls on the 31st of May and exited on the 3rd of June with HUGE profits. Anyone who held on expecting more profits got slaughtered on the 4th but the smart folks booked profits and exited on the 3rd itself.
"outstanding" is not a good enough descriptor for the quality of this interview
PM & HM had suggested to buy stock. But I guesss both of them are not stock brokers so it was illegal for them to give such a suggestion to public and they are subject to legal action by the authorities??
Selective talk. What about movement for the week till 5th June. Govt coming back 3rd time is as big a news like 2014
Keep going
Sucheta Jalal of Money Life had called for a SEBI enquiry immediately after this to find out who were the FIIs who invested heavily on 31st, 3rd and 4th. Rahul Gandhi also asked for same. SEBI must disclose who are these FIIs to satisfy the public to have confidence in the share market. Only a JPC investigation can get to the bottom of this alleged scam as we have seen what happened with SEBI’s Hindenburg enquiry.
Peculiar people!!!
Yes definitely! Get an independent inquiry you see !!!!!
A common citizen will never know how much he doesn't know under an inhuman government like this. We are doomed to suffer.
The Hindu says retail investors invested in stock market when it fell n mutual funds actually sold the funds , is the loss to retail investors notional ? The retail investors lose money only if they bought when it was high and sold when it was low , don't get what loss is here notional or real ? But I do agree govt should not tell people when to or not to buy stocks but did it really influence people would only be told if retail investors bought a lot of stocks after exit polls if it's not then I don't think it really influenced his or her decision making
A story doing the rounds is that FII's did do their own polls, which gave results closer to the reality and were surprised with the exit polls; which did not tally with their results.