As a beekeeper myself I confirm that population can decline very very fast

@selaluoposisisiapapunpresi7982

2 жыл бұрын

we have a solution

@johndodson8464

2 жыл бұрын

Well, just like an over-taxed population, maybe you're taking all their honey, and they cannot afford to start a hive! Liberals are like proverbial honey badgers.

@Celis.C

2 жыл бұрын

@@johndodson8464 Pollution and the use of pesticides are the problem for the decline of bees, which are one of our most critical partners in agriculture. Assuming someone dedicated to the craft to make beginner mistakes is rather insulting and shortsighted.

@johndodson8464

2 жыл бұрын

@@Celis.C 😏 Perhaps the problem started when the queen left her role and tried to be a worker drone.

@melelconquistador

2 жыл бұрын

Playing banished has taught me that if younger people cant have a home with room to have kids, they simply won't pump out croch goblins. Had towns dying because I didn't build enough housing.

I'm from Australia, my parents bought a home for $180k in the 90s, the same home today, 24 years older is $1.4Million. I'd have more kids if I can buy a home for $360k, but it just ain't so.

@cfletcher1030

2 жыл бұрын

I’m planning on emigrating due to the stupidity of the Australian housing market. Any country where I can make good coin and live cheaply is an option.

@chemtrooper1

2 жыл бұрын

I agree with your sentiments. I feel that economic disparity has more to do with this topic than is given credit.

@anthonycoyle2889

2 жыл бұрын

give it 5 to 10 years

@CelestialWoodway

2 жыл бұрын

Why would you want to bring kids into this shithole world?

@jeanwagner1977

2 жыл бұрын

ICZOTDHTIO

I am disgusted with economists who insist that "growth" is the be all and end all. Not even throwing in climate change and ecological considerations, an economist who isn't looking into how to make a sustainable economy work is sticking their head in the sand.

@toriknorth3324

2 жыл бұрын

must...appease...corporate...overlords...(read that in a zombie voice)

@chris5649

2 жыл бұрын

very true sir, willful ignorance is contribution

@MorganLeFay1

2 жыл бұрын

You're a person with a brain! Refreshing. Myopia is all too common and willfull ignorance is bliss. I completely agree with your comment. Economic expansion ("growth") is all this man is pushing.

@JP-JustSayin

2 жыл бұрын

We need a class of people with triple PhD's in climatology, demographics, and economics ... that are also science communicators, to help us figure this out. So yeah ... we are in trouble.

@WLF0X

2 жыл бұрын

Come again I'm a little slow

In China, in my village are full of orderly but not many young people at all. More orderly dies every now. it’s rare for a new born baby. Perhaps the city is different but still lots of individuals are just not wanting having baby or kids when people of the society turn out to be so shitty. It’s not like the old days. It’s sad that childhood from the past is happier then these days. Something went wrong in this world. Dreams are all fake unless you are rich and you know people. Or the world is not for you. It’s a pity. How human as evolve to such selfish specie. No one is friendly anymore. It’s all about “this is mine” “that’s the law” “let’s put all this restriction” “application for profit” “scam anyone who is stupid” “ so superior to have poor people wold like slaves” and on and on. It ends up like rotten fish, if alien people visited earth, they probably laugh their ass off on humanity. In the past I hard great story how people meet and started a family, now days, none, just quick marriage or spent how much money getting a wife. That just kill the story. Anyways have a good day. I going for a smoke and a cup of coffee , perhaps I feel better not think of why I am not marry or have any kid.

@rayn3038

2 жыл бұрын

Yes Sir…this overeducated Idiot…did not mention…the wonderful things about Humanity ….that have been Lost the last 50 years…while the greed and materialism and Growth…..ran like a Disease across a Corn Field….modern Life is a Rat Race….overpriced…..few have quality Time…or a relationship with Nature….they do-not Read the Classics to become Wise…or find Reality….they chase a dream to be Rich…and not have to Work….but that is Insane….the World is Not for…loafing and bumming around….every Animal…every Insect….every Tree and Plant does it’s Work…serves a Purpose….Humanity….has lost its Way….and Civilization will Fail and Crumble….billions Die.

@calanjameshunt

2 жыл бұрын

ily mate you hit the nail on the head very well and your english is very good so im sorry for any mannerism i use... English is a hard language from a Mandarin language ect starting point is a pain from what ive heard so again i applaud you... bravo friend... yea im 30yrs old the world is a far far cry from just 20years ago... and people are very very sad and empty... i do sadly doubt that when the governments and powerful try to counter the predicament we are in they will forget that we are emotional people that such rampant push's for advertisement of you needing this and that are and have disconnected people for being very aware they need another human first and foremost above all else... i think the youth of the world including my fellow peers have never sat down and considered the thought of dying alone without anyone to remember them or take on their memory into the future many forsake it all for the joys of now with such fruitless lust... people with no thought for the weigh of another life possibly being more valuable then their own... every person in our lives add value and all the applications, dating apps and games are not that... no time to focus on the things we had in our youths.. i believe fixing what has been lost in the last 20-30+ years would bring us back from what we will soon enough face us a species...

@stillwatersfarm8499

2 жыл бұрын

In the US I definitely am loosing more members of my family than I am gaining, and there aren’t enough children to care for those who are aging. In fact the aging are usually still trying to care for the children! Every store or business I go to has a sign that we don’t have enough people to work. The change I have seen in the past decade is sobering.

@skylinefever

Жыл бұрын

Why have children if you have reason to believe the children will have an awful life?

I'm 72 years old and I ride my bicycle a couple of times each week. It's great exercise and lots of fun.

@didforlove

2 жыл бұрын

your at the end of your life enjoy

@linmal2242

2 жыл бұрын

Me too, but I do not ride. More power to you !

@FF-ch9nr

2 жыл бұрын

Based

@karlmiller5009

2 жыл бұрын

In fact, his bicycle comment was what I found most skeptical. As a 44 year old, I often bike places as it’s the easiest way to get around the city while also good exercise. If more people biked, we would collectively, definitely be in better shape and live longer.

Well no sh*t, nobody can afford anything anymore.

I keep seeing comments (from young people, I am as well) speaking about the cost of living today. I just turned 29, the reason I don't have kids is because I can barely afford the one bedroom rental house attached to my landlords working full time. The last decade has constantly felt like my generation cannot build a real family like my elders unless you come from a well off family. I want kids, but I am just scraping by. I pay over $24,000 a year for rent, this doesn't include food, gas at almost $5 per gallon, car insurance, internet, utilities, etc. Basics. It costs easily $3000 per month (or $36,000 per year) for a two bedroom house. That is more than I make in a year. I cannot get a loan because I have $20,000 in student loans (which is very low comparatively). I have never had a credit card because I cannot get one since I have no credit and do not have parents helping me for co-signers. It costs about 800,000 for a basic house where I live, many basic houses are easily over $1,000,000. I make about $40,000 a year, with a college degree. How in the world could we possibly afford raising a single child in this mess? I am not alone...my whole generation is in this mess. It is depressing, no wonder no one is having kids...

The concept of a smaller population being a problem is truly preposterous. We do not have populations that are too small. We have economic structures that are too big for relatively smaller populations.

@niklasmolen4753

2 жыл бұрын

The problem is that population change is happening too fast.

@nobullshoot

2 жыл бұрын

well stated

@chriswatson1698

2 жыл бұрын

@@niklasmolen4753 The world's population is still growing.

@niklasmolen4753

2 жыл бұрын

@@chriswatson1698 It is only in Africa that the population is growing. Almost everywhere else the population is shrinking or has stagnated. But Africa is growing so much that the total world population is growing. But in 30-40 years, Africa's population is also expected to decline. In the rich world, the population is declining rapidly, and even in many middle-class countries. Russia is declining by 1 million a year.

@darrylmacdonald6159

2 жыл бұрын

Well said.

He is SO wrong that people not wanting children because of a probably horrible future are narcissistic. It’s very beneficent actually. Who wants to bring a child into the world that will suffer from poverty, violence, war and starvation? If countries want people to have kids they need to get their acts together and provide incentives and a safe secure future; the opposite of where we are heading right now.

@aparuvlad51

Жыл бұрын

For most of universal history, having numerous kids was greatly needed and promoted to the point of being a mandatory part of life. Everyone was purely aware of the upbringings the children would have, but there was need for physical labor in farmlands and not only Industrialization and urbanization simply means less kids and for good reason. Few people in the west even consider the probability of war poverty and starvation, it's simply a matter of economical opportunities in industrialized societies. Parents personally cannot afford children and they would be better off without them. Let alone the lack of incentives to have children considering current society

One issue I have with his thesis is the total neglect of the fall in infant and children death rate. When almost all your children will live women don't have to have many children. It's not just education.

@bogdan78pop

2 жыл бұрын

God you are thick....at 14.500$ a year per kid average USA...what do you expect....it's not how many you want...it's what you can afford...It took me 17 years to become financial stable in USA as an immigrant,....now in our late 40's we can afford 2-3 children....but not able to make them them.....we are too old to have them...It's all about money...look at the Kardashians ...they keep pumping babies ..!!!

Uh what? Life expectancy in the United States will suffer in the long run due to the incredible percentage of obesity in the young, and it keeps getting worse. COVID-19 deaths in the US reflected this. I dare people to go to any US community college and prepare to be shocked just how obese are the young people who in theory should be in the prime of their life. They're not just a few pounds overweight. They are by any earlier standard morbidly obese, keeping going only because of their youth. Now imagine how it is like for those young people who aren't even going to community college.

@jeanwagner1977

2 жыл бұрын

Reply added

@jeanwagner1977

2 жыл бұрын

1

a decline in population would be a relief for the planet and all living things.

@davidlafleche1142

2 жыл бұрын

The world is not overpopulated.

@millenialmemoirs

Жыл бұрын

This is an easy to believe but unsubstantiated myth.

India fertility rate is already lower than 2.1 as per latest 2021 data, happening faster than people thought.

@miliaurora1038

2 жыл бұрын

It's 2 now

@jmitterii2

2 жыл бұрын

Why should it be higher. It's too expensive everywhere to have children. And technology makes needing children as beasts of burden obsolete.

@blueberry4082

2 жыл бұрын

India is overpopulated

@prostspezi5

2 жыл бұрын

@blooming hummock if every people invest then who would consume? That why school don't teach you financial literacy. They are the true sheep of economy.

@nobullshoot

2 жыл бұрын

2021 stats are off because of covid. no one wanted to have a baby in a period of uncertainty. everything shut down, loss of work, travel bans, shortages, hospitals overloaded and very short staffed, everyone getting sick. There may be a post war boom coming like after ww2. unless there is a global recession, wars, famine, etc. i expect any is possible after covid…

As a fan of Star Trek I can see a day when consumerism will be obsolete and we will live a life just for living and not just buying stuff, mind you I'll be long gone by then.

@DinoCism

2 жыл бұрын

We could do that now if the people selling the stuff would let us, but how else would they control the world? Much easier to just brainwash people with advertisements and make them irrational with artificial scarcity.

@johnashton4086

2 жыл бұрын

Star Trek is not real….

@wuwei1846

2 жыл бұрын

We are in a demographic collapse. there will be no startrek universe. At least not one with people in it.

@JeroenGeldhof1

2 жыл бұрын

you'll own nothing and you'll love it. Except, people love owning things... and everyone has different interrests and taste.

@gilraybaker826

2 жыл бұрын

As a fan of Marvel Comics, I can see a day where everybody is eight foot tall, wears colorful clothes, and flips quips while beating the piss out of one another .

Brilliant discussion, thank you to the organizers & fellow Canadian Dr. Bricker!

People on KZread should have to pass a test showing that they actually watched and understood the presentation before they can leave a comment.

@calanjameshunt

2 жыл бұрын

thats very restricting friend... perhaps they should just be good peons and sit down and read a book? maybe one they can colour in? regarding your sentiment restrictions on anything bother me... put enough on forums and they are no long forums... nothing on the internet bar dirty shiz that should be here in the first place should be barr'd at all it defeats the idea of the internet the simple idea of sharing information... discussion is a important part of giving and receiving information... informed or not prior someone could say something senseless and have a conversation with someone who might be better informed and learn from that interaction is something that needs to not be forgotten... p.s. im not sure if i spotted him mention the requirement of 2nd and 3rd world countries requiring higher then 2.1 growth due their death prior having mated... so even if there are countries that are carrying the population growth even if its as high as africa it might be worse then first gauged due the though "o its not that bad africa is carrying us"...

@DinoCism

2 жыл бұрын

It would certainly cut down on all the feminism-bashing, "great replacement" fearing white supremacists in the comments bitching about how the muslims are gonna take over cause good aryan bitches don't wanna have their babies... Because if they watched to 38:35 they would know that births are down in the Middle East too. But why let facts get in the way of a good ol fear and hate circle jerk?

@__Wanderer

2 жыл бұрын

​@@DinoCism Using ctrl-f to find any comments that *mention immigration most are simply pointing out the fact that using immigration as a stop gap /temporary solution is a flawed method of solving population decline... precisely for the reason you mention. I mentioned that in NL there is a large (relative to population size) amount of immigration, this is perfectly fine, I have no issue with this but it is not a long term solution (100k per year for a population of only 17 million)... it is slapping ducktape on something and hoping it will hold. It does not fix the societal structural problems. In my comment I mention the cost of having a child... (1300 per month for day care alone) that makes it almost impossible (next to every day expenses) to even consider having a child... This is not fear or hate just pointing out the system is broken and that it is a failure to everyone, including those who are seeking a better life.

As a healthcare professional the best thing that could happen is for those 38 year olds to start riding bikes and walking now so they don't need those mobility devices. The majority of all healthcare spending is for chronic lifestyle disease (read obesity). 73% obese or overweight in the U.S. #1 in the world. And you don't need spandex to ride a bike. Travel a little and you'll see this.

@skylinefever

Жыл бұрын

Such people will die younger and there is an advantage. They won't be in the 24 hour a day dementia ward.

@chriswatson1698

8 ай бұрын

I wore out my knee cartilage by walking to stop weight gain.

Quantity of the population is not all, there is also the quality and it is deteriorating. The Scholl program in Germany is a disaster, instead of useful knowledge kids are fed up with nonsense. Asking a kid "what is math?" you likely to get an answer like "they got a triangle there but this still has to be proven.." the education of the university enrollees is terrible. They will never be the same quality replacement for highly qualified retirees. We have to count on the stop of technological progress in 10-20 years. The free market ideology does not seem to understand that. If you become unemployed at the age of 45 you will have hard time to get back. No matter how bad the demographic of the country is, Italy, Spain, Russia or Germany. On the other hand, the number of permanent contacts is steadily sinking.. noone knows what things will be like in 5 years How many people needs Russia? Only 12-15 millions produce something of the value. Plus three-four times this number for their family members. Plus 3-5 Mio who serve them. That's it. It's roughly 60-70 mio. Still less than a half of the shrinking population.. The rest will have hard time to make living. The same procentually in Germany. In Poland even worse, what is the countries niche in the world economy? The emigration isn't working. The millions who came to Germany 2015 are still largely unemployed and on the roadside of the society. To different is the average education level, too different are the basic cultural and behavioral norms. It will never merge into a single conglomerate for sure. So why worrying about the shrinking numbers? It's either the intellectual inertness or, that's more probable, the fear of the capitalistic "elites" of running out of the cheap voiceless slave-like labor force. Sorry, but this is our response to your fuc....ng charlatanry and demagoguery. You don't give us decent human worth conditions, you think you can manipulate us the way it's most suitable to you? No! we will destroy you by cutting short of your main resource, the steady influx of the cheap labour force. We'll fuc...ing die together .

@skylinefever

Жыл бұрын

You understand it well. People have gone on strike. We won't give the overlords more future wage slaves and future cannon fodder.

A trend with these discussions is a focus on women. The family. The single mothers. The struggles they have. Almost as though the expectation is the men are inconsequential. Fathers are still important. The mother is, obviously, more important. However, why would a woman decide to have a family and have 2, 3 or more children if the expectation is they would be raising them as single moms? Wouldn't it be a good idea to promote men to be fathers? To make fatherhood a bonus, a positive, and not the biggest financial risk of their lives? Seriously, it would be tough to find any single, prime-age, males who would want to take on that risk after witnessing a day in a 'family' court setting.

@a.person1723

2 жыл бұрын

you make a really good point here

@gregory-of-tours

2 жыл бұрын

I think Bricker is sort of trying to push people into thinking about that at the end, but also trying to avoid saying anything that implies women don't have a choice.

@chriswatson1698

2 жыл бұрын

Exactly. My daughters saw how the Family Court rewarded the cheat and punished the faithful wife who worked hard for the benefit of her family, and made the cheat's career possible.

@ethanstump

2 жыл бұрын

i am a extremely left wing straight white male in my 20's who believes in gender egalitarianism. at the same time though, you will never catch me ever married with kids and in a family court, because I've seen what that crapp did to my parent's and siblings. I'm at target weight, exercise and eat well, slightly above average iQ, live in an 1 bed apartment unit downtown that's a few blocks away from the luxury apartments. i make sure to read, cook for myself, and cycle regularly. i don't smoke, drink or do drugs. i make sure to go to bed at about 10, and get a full 8 hours. i say this not to brag, but to indicate that even though I'm pretty plain, I'm still slightly above the national average, and yet i Still have issues with finding someone reasonable. and the ones i do find, are either overweight, single moms, smoke or clearly have TBI. it's crazy how unhealthy our society is. but our society isn't designed around health, but profit.

I read Empty Planet a while ago, it's a brilliant read. This lecture was really interesting as well, thank you.

Why does Dr. Bricker assume so casually that economic growth is a necessity?

@Stefan_trekkie

2 жыл бұрын

Because the capitalist system needs it.

@davidford694

2 жыл бұрын

@@Stefan_trekkie Good point, but no one asked him to be an apologist for it.

@ShrekMeBe

2 жыл бұрын

the capitalist model is partly what brought us here. i would argue it needs a boot, creating place for something new and better and in tune with the new challenges

@Stefan_trekkie

2 жыл бұрын

@@ShrekMeBe That is absolutely true. The cap. system prays on people and making the value of human life to go down

@ShrekMeBe

2 жыл бұрын

@@Stefan_trekkie same a communism or socialism or national-socialism, friend. All very bad, expired eggs. But yeah, the need is real for something that rings true and resonates in a sentence or two. Like live and let live (half joking only)

I bought a copy of the UN World Population report in 1980, where they predicted that the world's population would peak at around 10 billion around 2100 and then decline. As it turns out the decline in birth rates has been a little faster than predicted. In my opinion, birth rate won't turn up again until the cost of housing falls and the incomes of young people (relative to the average) rises so that the ratio of housing cost to young adult income makes it possible for people in their 20s and 30s to afford a nice house (according to the local culture and middle class expectations) on a single salary.

@jandrews6254

2 жыл бұрын

I’ve heard that Chinese couples have rejected the three child goal of the ccp due to the huge cost of having and supporting children making the larger family unviable

@Thingsyourollup

2 жыл бұрын

20's or 30's? Hell, i'm almost 40 and still can't get a house. I mean, I almost had one. I had a down payment and a mortgage approval, but then Covid happened, the buyer decided not to sell, and then the price of houses shot through the roof and now i'm back at square one again. The problem I'm finding, is if I want an affordable house, I have to buy some tiny shack dump that was built in the 60s because no new housing developments are building starter homes, it's all 3-4 bedroom "luxury communities".

@tonycatman

2 жыл бұрын

The cost of housing is disproportionately demand led. I need a roof over my head, and I will pay what it takes in order to get one. So the price of a house, at the marginal level, is based on the most that the least affluent person can pay. You only need a tiny reduction in population for there to be spare houses, and for there to be a massive downward swing in price. But this is not what dominates the birth rate. For an example of both assertions - check out Japan. You can buy a rural house for next to nothing, due to falling population. Yet this hasn't corrected the birth rate.

@Alex_Plante

2 жыл бұрын

@@tonycatman can young adults in rural Japan have jobs that pay well, so that the average salary can support a family of 4?

@tonycatman

2 жыл бұрын

@@Alex_Plante The simple answer to your question is 'yes'. The geographical location of an office worker is increasingly irrelevant. I work for a company in the UK, despite the fact that I live in New Zealand, and have done for 10 years. The company has over 100 branches, so my location is irrelevant. If we were in the same time zone, it would make things much easier. I work with other people who live in the UK - I've no idea where, and I don't think they ever go into the office. Nor do I care.

Absolutely fascinating presentation, masterfully done. This podcast is worth watching several times. Bravo!!

@MichaelBrown-sh8yh

7 ай бұрын

I concur.

Thank God someone is finally talking about this. We were supposed to pass 8 billion in 2010. In 2012 we found out more than half the world population was already over 50 (red flag). Most of the West has been replicating BELOW Replacement rate since 2000. The peak of the bell curve has already been passed.

@julianskinner3697

2 жыл бұрын

No the median age on 2015 was 29.6 years old not 50

@tamadeus7189

2 жыл бұрын

@@julianskinner3697 That's bull$#!+: Look up NYT & Time Mag article "Our Aging World".

@skylinefever

5 ай бұрын

Indeed, only people on the trash end of the bell curve can be bothered to repopulate. Brawndos got what plants crave!

the housing point is interesting everyone tells I should only buy a place with 3 bedrooms minimum, and I'm thinking who wants that?

Are we sure that a declining global population might not be a good thing? Easier to feed and house? Less pollution?

Minimalize living, less waste, ghost town, tiny homes, less eating, less home less, less greedy people, faith on gods will decline, no more war.

when 1% of people suck up 50% of the wealth (or whatever these crazy statistics are at today) the rest of us don't have enough excess wealth to be able to afford having kids until we are 30. Unlike those who came before us, we don't have kids because we expect those kids to take care of us when we are old, or to provide value to us as little child laborers. we also recognize that having kids and raising them in poverty is a really crappy thing to do. My generation is more educated than any that came before it. During the great depression they didn't have as many kids because they didn't think they could afford to feed them. Back then all you needed to provide was shelter and food and if you did that, you were a good parent. Today, my generation tries to aim for finishing college and obtaining a middle class lifestyle before they settle down and raise kids. I know that's a far cry from not having kids due to starvation, but the standard of living has risen a lot, and so has has what parents are expected to provide for their children to be considered good parents. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see why younger generations are not having kids. 1.) we aren't taking advantage of our kids as some sort of extra labor like many used to do in a rural environment and we don't expect them to provide for us in old age, etc. 2.) we have a much better and much more expensive standard of living expected for our children and most young people can not afford that until they are 30 due to college and establishing a career.

@melelconquistador

2 жыл бұрын

All this education but no balls to do something about it. You know what we did to the dozens or so of elites that bought up most of the land? We disposed of them. I agree that when parasitic elites suck up the wealth it put everyone through the wringer. Especially so with degrowth, that is when they execute out-sourcing, de-industrialization and consolidate.

@dr.livesey7595

2 жыл бұрын

You can live like a Farmer without Lots of Money. But good luck finding a wife nowadays for that. Amish people in america do that and they have on average 6-7 Kids. This is absolutely crazy, they are the fastest growing religious group in the US.

@jmsgrdner2379

2 жыл бұрын

Agreed. The American baby boomer generation controls most of the world's wealth. Capitalism has really morphed into a form of national and generational feudalism. It is very telling when you consider this author, a boomer himself, says that the best solution to population decline, is to "accept it." There is a solution to this problem - USA stop printing money, other countries stop using the dollar as a reserve, everyone stop the corporate and generational welfare programs and return to a free market system built on a large prosperous middle class working real jobs, not remote jobs.

I love this.... The population is getting to large for the earth to handle.... Next week, the declining global population will lead to great consequences. Next.....

@Sam-tz8ou

2 жыл бұрын

😂😂

@mrpablomx

2 жыл бұрын

Good for the Planet, bad for a Country's Economy.

@skylinefever

5 ай бұрын

Ecologists like lower human populations. Economists hate fewer wage slaves and cannon fodder.

You know the one thing is not declining? The wealth of the top 1% When you purposely redistribute the wealth from the poor and middle class to the rich and corporations, this is what happens. When you keep interest rates at 0, print trillions this is what happens. This is being happening for a long time. You can thanks the master mind of all this, Alan Greenspan

Older people need to save money for the insane medical bills they are surely facing, at least in the US. They don't need to be buying a bunch of crap to fill the smaller houses that they will move into.

@mysterioanonymous3206

2 жыл бұрын

Haha, savage... It's true though.

In any ecological system, organism grow fully into their food source, then die in the waste products. Look at a closed system like yeast and alcohol production.

@calanjameshunt

2 жыл бұрын

regarding that... there is bacteria that they have been running research on for many many generations of a culture... they eventually mutated to be able to survive on things they prior couldn't absorb allowing it to continue to thrive in condition that the prior variant of the culture couldn't survive eg the lack of the original food source... i found it to be quite interesting... hope you see that clip some time its fricking awesome...

@dorkladytravels

2 жыл бұрын

@calan, perhaps in our scenario, the equivalent to that bacteria would be the cockroaches... ;)

@tonycatman

2 жыл бұрын

Doesn't apply to humans.

Funny he forgot to post the most important option as an alternative. End the economic system based on eternal growth. The economic system must change because endless growth is not possible with limited space and resources. Immigration is not a solution. When the immigrants becomes old we then need more immigrants and then more and more. We will hit a point where it can't be sustained and the bigger the population is when that happens the worse it will be. Automation will take over more and more as well. In 50 years half of all jobs will most likely have disappeared and not been replace with something else that is not at best made up work that actually is not needed to be done. When AI can do anything we can but better most people don't need to work anymore.

Kinda strange that among the option there's nothing about correcting domestic fertility rate with some well-thought policies.

@nobullshoot

2 жыл бұрын

china recently ordered all party members to have 3 children. they have abandoned the one child policy. Germany has great policies in place. mostly the immigrants are taking advantage of it. Religion served a purpose in its day. But governments waged war on the nuclear family for decades. Largely to free women for the workforce, women’s rights, women’s choice. In masculine societies birth rates are still high. Only in feminized societies has it fallen to below replacement levels. Its natures way. Masculine societies in the end will impregnate fem societies.

@goldassayer93555

2 жыл бұрын

It's real simple, you get what you pay for! When the government or businesses pay families to have more kids. When the family income rises as the family has more kids then the population will rise. China's one child policy was counterproductive. America's falsified "Cost of Living" numbers have reduced family income from where one man working could support a wife and 2 kids and buy a home and a car in 1950 to now it takes two incomes and soon it will take more than 2 incomes to have kids. The politicians in both cases do not want to pay people to have kids. So now they have achieved what they wished for, oops!

@andyd568

2 жыл бұрын

@@nobullshoot sadly your point is too politically incorrect to be discussed.

@chriswatson1698

2 жыл бұрын

The political and economic elite are perfectly happy for the descendants of the people who built western countries, to die out. It is an opportunity to replace white people with cheaper labour from fast-breeding, low wage countries.

@krystelhardesty9960

2 жыл бұрын

It is much easier to import people then to wait for kids to grow up. It takes a good 25 years before a baby that is born today to be productive in the economy. But an immigrant coming over is pretty much ready to go especially the ones that come over with a job already like the doctors that we get from India or South America. Its even better if they come over as a family a husband wife and a few kids. The country they came from all ready paid for a lot of the stuff that goes along with raising kids, like schooling and services. I think it has more to do with greed than anything else at lest in the US it is.

A very insightful program. Thank you for posting,

Good questions. Thanks for the talk

Currently millennials are delaying marriage and children given the economic conditions.

@xaxfixho

2 жыл бұрын

Do you mean millennial men, from what I heard women are getting more educated and thier economic opportunities increased/ing?? In the US seems most student loan debt is from the same group. As women age thier health care costs tend to be higher than men's. Not factoring in that economic output and innovation tends to slant towards men???? I'm lost here.

@chriswatson1698

2 жыл бұрын

The absence of any kind of legally binding marriage contract makes bearing and caring for children fraught with danger: the possibility of poverty.

Almost like there might be external, environmental, and socio-economic pressures influencing population trends. Either way, aiming to maintain unsustainable growth, regardless of external pressures, is how you ensure your population graph spikes and plummets instead of plateauing. Why can't we accept that a plateau is winning? Why do we need to constantly increase?

@avernvrey7422

2 жыл бұрын

The axiom is, "if you aren't growing, you're dying."

@thirstfast1025

2 жыл бұрын

Maybe for an organism you could simplify it down to that, but not for populations. Plateu is the only sustainable model. Continued growth leads to catastrophic collapse, even extinction.

This is an amazingly ironicaly judgmental and narcissistic statement he made near the end (61:40): "I don't want to put any value judgment on it but the the logic of saying that you know I'm not going to have kids simply I'm going to deny myself the pleasure of having children simply because I think that the future is um is is terrible is such a uh uh a millenarian narcissistic kind of way of looking at things and there has to be a better view of the future." It's like opposite day. How dehumanizing is it to be only considered a breed animal to make more consumers? What a disturbing ideology he must have. Quality of life over quantity of life. This population decline is a great opportunity to lift up so much humanity who has been left behind and clean up the environment/stave of the worst climate change. We can reinvasion the way society & the economies, that should be supporting not exploiting them, are structured. I'm in my mid 40s. I got fixed when I was 18 as I decided at around the age of 10 it was unethical to have kids (environmentally etc) & I had absolutely no interest in having any. I have no regrets of this nonsensical "missing out" I have had by not having kids. People who have kids have also miss out on things too. Look up the % of parents who regret having kids vs those who chose not to have kids. Any path your life takes mean you will do some things & not others. Life is to short to do it all. Perhaps, someday, every individual with have the opportunity to live the best life they can imagine that is fulfilling for them in a healthy world filled with abundance both natural & planned. Hopefully, by me not having kids & trying to live modestly, I have contributed in some small way to this.

This was more interesting than I was expecting it to be! Great talk. Thank you for sharing.

Dr. Bricker doesn't seem to be aware of the cycling culture that exists in many northern European cities such as Copenhagen and Amsterdam. Cyclists span all ages. The idea that parking spaces are more important than bike lanes for the elderly is nonsensical. A person who lacks the visual acuity and coordination to operate a bicycle probably should not be driving a car. The best solution is a good public transit system.

@toycarpgmr

2 жыл бұрын

Bicycles are possible in small compact cities but not possible for long distances in larger areas. Public transit has the same issue.

@gregvassilakos

2 жыл бұрын

@@toycarpgmr More than a billion people across western Europe, Japan, South Korea, and now China are having their daily urban and inter-city transportation needs met by walking, cycling, public transit, and high-speed rail. Their cities are more pleasant for it. Unlike many American cities, their cities are not chopped up by highways and large parking lots. A further advantage is that their transportation infrastructure works for those who are either too young or too old to operate a car.

What might help is if men put more value on women and treated them better. I remember years ago when I was fishing Sockeye Salmon in Haines Alaska with my two boys who were 7 and 8 at the time. By the way, I loved the North then ( having just moved there from Ontario, I was 37 then and am 74 now) then and I love the North now... Women have so much freedom here. Anyway, there were people, mostly men fishing there from the lower 48 and I was the only women in hip waders fishing in the river for Socyeye on that particular day. I got to talking to the man beside me, who was American ( I live in the Yukon) and at some point he marveled at how independent I was. That was a nice compliment until he went on to say something like if women get independent like me who is going to bear their children and take care of them and the house. It's aways about them with men. Look at how poorly women women are treated by men around the world....raped in India if they are caught out alone, beaten on the legs and or killed in Afghanistan for nothing at all, murdered on a regular basis in Mexico, strangled with religion in the bible belt of the USA. Maybe more monetary value should be placed on women.. Pay a woman a wage for staying home, raising children, cooking, etc. Maybe women might feel more valued and actually chose to stay in the home. Just think of all those prospective consumers paying the governments back with taxes.

I thought that this was a very good program right up to the end where he lost it answering the last question. When asked about a woman who didn't want to have children because of the condition of the world he stated that he respected her viewpoint but then went on to disrespect every aspect of her viewpoint by saying that she was illogical because "what if everybody felt that way, it would be the end of humanity in 100 years". That's a fallacious argument in that "everybody" doesn't just feel one way, it's never happened and to use that line is silly. He goes on to denigrate her further by saying that her reasoning is illogical and implies that she is embracing a false "virtue." He claims that there needs to be positive attitude towards humanity's future and that we should not "deny ourselves the pleasure of having children," and goes on to say that seeing the future as "terrible" is a "millenarian narcissistic" way of looking at things and he claims that there "has to be" a better view of the future. I would like to politely suggest that he does not have a clear enough perception of the issue of climate change and the rapidity of its approach. We may well have no future and I for one have no children partly for the very reasons put forward by the woman asking the question. His blind optimism is Pollyanna-ish.

@skylinefever

Жыл бұрын

I'm thinking about how much he would hate having to disprove David Benatar. He might as well say that people still need to have children, whether the children will enjoy life or not, the feudal overlords demand more serfs.

We haven't always figured out a better way, every previous human civilization has collapsed, we are likely the same.

@alexanderlavrinovich7408

2 жыл бұрын

Yes, we will go with a big "boom" as we are very equipped for it. :)

Do high house prices cause low fertility? If couples take longer to establish themselves surely that will affect when they have children and how many they will have?

@calanjameshunt

2 жыл бұрын

i think alike other issues its something they dont want to or wont acknowledge until they need to... "do it for denmark" and the baby bonus's of 2009-2010 in australia

@chriswatson1698

2 жыл бұрын

@@TheClownWorldShow The idea of living in a flat with a baby and a toddler fills me with horror. I had a back yard where the kids could run around outside while I did the housework.

@melelconquistador

2 жыл бұрын

Yes, a good game that simulates this is called Banished. When I dont build enough housing, the youth cannot establish their own families until houses become available. This happens without a market and more so commune economics with no monetary system. Take the idea that youth have to compete for housing availability and apply it to our economic model with currency and now youth also have to bid for affordable available housing.

I will not bring new life into poverty! People need to stop bringing blessings into cursed situations! My mother bought a three-bedroom house earning minimum wage in the seventies. I will never have that opportunity.

@baw-mq4bt

2 жыл бұрын

Amen, don't breed them if you cant feed them. You're a smart cookie!

@transforgoku

2 жыл бұрын

Ok but then who's going to take care of you and the majority of elderly people in the next 40 years? I don't think robots will because there won't be enough young and capable people for their maintenance, just let time pass by and maybe you'll think otherwise by then, I'm not saying you and everyone else must go have offspring right now, but instead give it a good thought and stop defaulting to the mathusian propaganda of "there's too many people on the planet"...

@AdelTheForsaken

2 жыл бұрын

@@transforgoku I have accepted that if I do not have children to look after me in my old age is throw my old ass in the nursing home I have lived my life. Yes I know what goes on in nursing homes my mother worked in one for 10 years. Honestly when I get that old where I can't take care of myself I wouldn't be mad if somebody took me out back and just shot me. Iv lived a decent life. Could it been better? Yes! But if I cannot provide a better life for my children the what I had what's the point of bringing them into the world? To suffer?

@transforgoku

2 жыл бұрын

@@AdelTheForsaken But dude, at this rate there won't be anyone left to work in nursing homes, let alone to drag you out and shoot you, you'll have to do it yourself, it's ok if you don't want to have offspring, but consider the consequences it will cause if a massive number of people decides to go the same route (which they are already doing), society as we know it will crumble and most 1st world countries will turn back into 3rd world ones since there won't be any money if very few young people work and pay taxes...

@AdelTheForsaken

2 жыл бұрын

@@transforgoku i grew up poor. I refuse to be a single mother struggling to make ends meet. I watch my mother abused and abandoned despite her best efforts. I will inherite nothing. Im not academically inclined, was never good in school. So money is the issue. I wanted to be a stay at home mom, but most men cant afford to do that. Not even my wonderful fiance! He would be a good dad but hes a truck driver and makes decent money but it cost 250,000 or more to raise a kid. My mother by herself bought a house earning 3.75 an hour. Id have to give up all of my hobbies , what little free time i have for myself and look after elderly parents. On top of taking care of home and keeping it hot for my man!?! Nope not happening. Im not going to be the only one sacrificing everything to make anyone one happy! ME FIRST!!!!

You don't even make it possible for one adult working full time job to support them self's. Why would people be having kids they can't take care of knowing they already can't take care of them self's.

Sorry you lost me at "IF you're one of the people who believes that the activity of human beings is having an impact on our environment." Is that really something we have to do??? Do we have to say "this is a low birth rate, IF you're one of the people who 'believes' that 1.6 is less than 2.1"? Also, climate models don't need to take declining population into account, because per capita emissions vary enormously and a population can go down while its carbon emissions go way up.

@tofu_whisperer3325

2 жыл бұрын

I agree. I read the book shortly after it came out. I found it to be really interesting, but I could tell at the time that the authors are not climate change guys. The fact is, all that really matters is carbon emissions. There is enough carbon in the atmosphere now to raise global temps by 1.5 C. We continue to burn more and more fossil fuels every year, so that number is due to be higher. With lots of “breadbasket” areas of the globe drying up, I wouldn’t be so sure we won’t be facing food insecurity regardless of a shrinking population.

@kenpumford754

2 жыл бұрын

So you put absolute faith in climate models, which have to account for many hundreds or thousands of variables and attempt to model a system with an almost infinite number of feedback loops, even after seeing the abject failure of models of covid-19 spread and death, a far far far simpler proposition? That takes religious levels of faith.

@tofu_whisperer3325

2 жыл бұрын

@@kenpumford754 are you saying there are feedback loops that, once triggered, will reduce the amount of carbon in the atmosphere? The feedback loops that I’m aware of (thawing tundra releasing trapped methane, melting ice lowering Earth’s albedo and absorbing more sunlight as heat) will only make climate change worse. Which ones are you talking about?

@burgeaccount

2 жыл бұрын

@@kenpumford754 Covid-19 is a new disease, being modeled in real time as it mutates. Anyone decently acquainted with the scientific method would expect predictions to be varied, and quite rough. Climate change is something that people have been studying for fifty years, involving molecules that do not mutate. Carbon dioxide and methane have the properties that they have. They hold excess heat. The complex climate models can't predict exactly where and when the consequences will show up - they can't tell you "cyclone on Tuesday in Mumbai." But they can tell you, the world will heat up, and it will cause weather systems we rely on for food and housing to shift. And guess what? They were smack dab on the money, with the last ten years being the hottest years on record and with long-stable weather patterns, including the gulf stream and Western snowpack, starting to fall apart. I don't need faith, I have evidence, and a basic understanding of chemistry.

I said to a boy, "What will happen if you love me"? Now, as a man, he is by my side.

@FF-ch9nr

2 жыл бұрын

What the fuck

Very interesting and a very positive change.

Because kids, house, health are extremely expensive now and no one can afford it anymore! That's your number one problem! 🙄 We the average worker can not afford it!

Old women as a massive politic block. That’s the ultimate Karen Party 😑

I don't know why I bother watching this stuff, apparently all the real experts are in the comments

Low births show the irrelevance of relationships amid rampant female promiscuity, women living their best lives beyond reproach and the anti male divorce / custody bias.

@linmal2242

2 жыл бұрын

That sounds like a particularly North American problem !

@lilrog0909

2 жыл бұрын

@@linmal2242 no that is a universal problem. Just wait until India uses Tender to its full potential. Chinese women are demanding insane provider standards because chinese women are working... Hypergamy is in women DNA letting women work in corporate world was a big mistake.

@texaspatty4697

2 жыл бұрын

@@lilrog0909 Letting?

@whyaminotoriginal

2 жыл бұрын

You also see this with men...but go off

@skylinefever

Жыл бұрын

@@linmal2242 He mentioned Japan and South Korea having low birth rates. Saying this is a North America thing is messed up. Also, how about Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan?

It's simple. If you can't afford kids please don't have them. The taxpayers are done feeding kids that are not there's. Practice birth control until your sure you can afford them. Do the math. We never had kids because we are just average working people. We love each other but having children would put us in the poor house. We simply don't have the money. We struggle to make are mortgage payments sometimes. It's a nice home. It's a good problem. It's worth it. I work lots of overtime. No college for ether of us. We could not afford it. Someday it will be paid for. Then the house is ours. Bringing a child up in poverty is a choice. Getting pregnant is a choice. Practice birth control.

I would just like to mention that existence is exponentially more expensive now than it was even 20 years ago. Why would one bring kids into a world where you have to work 2 jobs just to meet their basic needs?

Good report. I have been watching Peter Zeihan's reports on demographics and China in particular. The latest from him is that China has been overcounting their population by about 100 million so they are estimated to currently (2022) at 1.1 billion and your estimate of a 50% decline would bring them down to 550 million by 2100. Another factor that should be considered is that their demographic balance of old to young will shift radically toward old age needing the young to carry a larger burden of retirees while their international trade will decline so coal, oil, gas and fertilizer will taper off. This decline in energy imports will cause a decline in food production and food imports. If China starts a war to take Taiwan those energy import will go to zero and the trucks and lights and heat will go offline in 6 months. Famine will follow. This makes the calculation of the 2100 population problematic.

@sweden_is_xxxx

6 ай бұрын

For those of us who will live another few decades it will be spectacular to watch. I think already by 2050 we will see some really nasty things happening. Especially in Europe and East Asia. Maybe sooner than 2050. We're definitely not going to have to wait until 2100 to see the disaster.

I’m curious about where the reduction ends - what is humanity’s minimum, the level of population below which we won’t fall, simply because SOME people will always have kids.

@StressRUs

2 жыл бұрын

In the many crowded animal researches over the past 70 years, these rodent populations became massively overpopulated, the family structures deteriorated and they ALL became extinct in the end. Watch the movie "The Children of Men". Stress R Us

@nobullshoot

2 жыл бұрын

Its based on external forces. We have no struggle now, no need for family. Few deaths, children born survive. In such situations nature seeks balance. There is no need for more people. Corporations and governments are freaking out because they either grow and expand or die. If a disaster occurs and external forces return the need for family, community, children then it reverses. Current environment is feminized freeing women from childbirth. Masculine dominated societies still gave very high birth rates. Climate change, war, disease, some reset will occur and pendulum swings other direction

@alexlazar4738

2 жыл бұрын

This question has been puzzling many declining civilizations in our galaxy for hundreds of thousands of years. And the answer was always the same. Cloning.

@nobullshoot

2 жыл бұрын

@@alexlazar4738 then we will have clone wars

@StressRUs

2 жыл бұрын

@@alexlazar4738 All humans living today are indeed "clones", we have 99.9% of the same identical genes. So, we only vary in 40 of our 40,000 genes. Only one other mammal is known to science with this level of genetic identity (aka cloning), the blind mole rat. Why? The human population was decimated by the super volcano Tuva, 73.5Kya, when our ancestral numbers plummeted to just 2,000. The resultant inbreeding created veritable "clones", and we have been doing so ever since. You are having my child and I am free to have my own life free of the need to clone. Sadly, I only came to this knowledge late in life. Don't make the same mistake. Stress R US

Instantly a like before even listening no ads!!!

Let me see if I’ve got this straight. The greatest explosion of humans in all of history has occurred in the last 70 years. There are ~8 billion of us on a planet that might be able to sustainable support a 1/4 of that. This has caused: climate change, a million species to be going extinct, the greatest extinction since the dinosaurs, the loss of open space, the depletion of the oceans fish, pollution on an unimaginable scale and the loss of coral reefs, the depletion of resources including water and on and on. And someone thinks a decline could be bad!? If it doesn’t decline we and most life is done for.

@Stefan69whatever

2 жыл бұрын

The book Uninhabitable Planet looks at the future from the opposite direction. This is probably more relevant. Of course we need nothing more than a population contraction. the sooner the better. This talk gives us hope.

@Stefan69whatever

2 жыл бұрын

The book Uninhabitable Planet looks at the future from the opposite direction. This is probably more relevant. Of course we need nothing more than a population contraction. the sooner the better. This talk gives us hope.

@peteralund

2 жыл бұрын

Malthusian

@thegeneralist7527

2 жыл бұрын

The counter narrative to this is the Earth can support a vastly larger population. Urbanized people have much less environmental impact. Industrial agriculture is far more efficient and returns habitat to nature as land use decreases. CO2 climate change is a myth, Life evolved at much higher CO2 levels and has no impact on weather or climate. You only need look at the weather 100 or 200 years ago to see that. Fewer species are going extinct because we now preserve them and their habitat. Even coral reefs have never been healthier because of the plentiful CO2 and there is a greening of the Earth. Which is the truth? Which can you disprove?

@amylee9

2 жыл бұрын

@@thegeneralist7527 do you have a comprehensive book I can read about all the wonders of CO2?

Why have the bio-tech companies who conducted the initial trials with the covid drugs have withheld important data?

@calanjameshunt

2 жыл бұрын

because they are scared... children with they're faces covered in icing from the cup cake they partook will stare you dead in the eye and lie without remorse while you hold the remains up and ask them if they did it... they want 75 years... pop quiz whats the average lifespan of a human... cant face trial if your long dead right XD

@skylinefever

Жыл бұрын

Because when a few companies own a huge amount of the market, they can afford to bribe most politicians.

The big problem for both research and business is that human intelligence is not increasing significantly and the population of high and very high intelligence people is shrinking at the same rate as the general population. That part of the process that is the most difficult to automate will suffer an intelligence deficit. At the moment we have the situation of trying to develop AI at the same time as the population available to develop AI is going into decline. We will also struggle as resistance to change becomes stronger as the population becomes more geriatric.

@dinsel9691

2 жыл бұрын

Intelligence is highly correlated with low fertility. Out of all polygenic scores, the ones most quickly being outbred are the ones to do with high IQ. Maybe in the future our dumb kids will not know what to eat, and will have to eat the elderly.

@theother1281

2 жыл бұрын

@@dinsel9691 Perhaps we should focus on cloning technology rather than AI?

@Zenmyster

2 жыл бұрын

There is both a misallocation and an under appreciation of educational resources. There are steadily fewer people qualified to work in computer science, including AI. Due to two things. One, education is expensive in spite of the total number of spots available. So, poorer people in North America are less likely to avail themselves of higher education. Second, higher education in applied sciences is under appreciated in North America. Which leads to the distrust of vaccines among a notable, and vocal, segment of the population.

@Zenmyster

2 жыл бұрын

As a corollary, people who do go in for higher education are encouraged to go in for law instead of accounting, and sociology rather than computer science.

@theother1281

2 жыл бұрын

@@Zenmyster Same problem in the UK. Well law is a valuable service industry, at least pre Brexit, in the UK. But the devaluation of applied skills in UK pre tertiary education has been a problem for at least 60 year. Which in turn has shaped the evolution of tertiary education.

The important number about a population is income per capita, not its total size. What's wrong with a smaller, richer population?

@dhutch71

2 жыл бұрын

Physical labor will always be needed.... who will do that? You? No... you'll be busy counting your money.

@parrotraiser6541

2 жыл бұрын

@@dhutch71 My robot will be doing that for me.

@antoniogutierrez5344

2 жыл бұрын

@@parrotraiser6541 You will be a human pet for them

Super good interview!

Sounds like there will be a great need for a host club targeting older females. We will have nice young men, all neat and tidy, ready to open jars and serve tea in butler outfits.

The sooner the capitalists understand you can't have endless growth both economically and demographically on a finite planet, could give us a chance to save the Earth until then forget about the future generations.

@DinoCism

2 жыл бұрын

They only understand when people make them understand. They never do it on their own.

@dlewis8405

2 жыл бұрын

Baloney. There are plenty of good business models that don’t involve endless population growth.

@socialistsolidarity

2 жыл бұрын

@@DinoCism True!

Why do I get the unpleasant feeling that the assertion that educating women results in a lower fertility rate, will make a certain type of person try to cut down on that education and coerce women to become pregnant? It’d never happen. Right?

@calanjameshunt

2 жыл бұрын

better then the idea of mandated breeding... if right now isnt a slither of the idea of what our governments would do if they thought they were "protecting us" just let your mind wonder mate... consider what those clowns might not do to "save the human race"

@calanjameshunt

2 жыл бұрын

not gona lie... i hope your a female so that sets in a little deeper... probably wouldnt hit home quite as hard if you were a bloke... and yes i dont fancy that idea its quite vulgar im just a pessimist... "better to be wrong and be pleasantly surprised then be surprised and not be prepared..." anyways theyll backtrack on allowing that sentiment being construed as such as its refined... in regards to educated women... itll just become some mantra about doing your part for your country or being treated similar to a anti vaxer...

@calanjameshunt

2 жыл бұрын

and i was thinking about it a little more... legit if it did go down in such a fashion though... mandated... remember how the schools in america were like "the children are ours" along with said mandates took the kids after birth citing property of the country or what ever... i mean women wana work ect... the government could get the minimum amount of children out of its citizens and raise a entire generation to be the perfect citizen... all the lads and ladies that wana work till they drop then they can... population would be sustained...

@richardscathouse

2 жыл бұрын

It has proven so in much of the western nations. When women become men, who will have the children?

@skylinefever

Жыл бұрын

It wouldn't surprise me. Keeping women's options closed would be easier for leaders to do than to actually make women want to have children.

If you don't have a job you can not provide for yourself. If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child. There are too many jobless, hungry and homeless people in the world today. Education and birth control are key to reducing poverty and hunger. There are way too many charities that would argue that there are too many hungry and homeless people in the world. A declining population would be a good thing. Maybe visit some of the slums and poverty ridden places where people are struggling to survive.

@hellbythedashboardlight1730

2 жыл бұрын

that's what welfare is for. the people who have the most children have the least ability to provide.

@KJSvitko

2 жыл бұрын

@@hellbythedashboardlight1730 Every additional child reduces the resources. Cut a pie into 3 pieces. And see what you get. Then cut a pie into 8 pieces and you see everyone gets a smaller piece. Every additional mouth to feed, clothe and provide schooling for costs more money making poor people even poorer.

@hellbythedashboardlight1730

2 жыл бұрын

@@KJSvitko people create wealth. Where do you think wealth comes from? People like Edison, Tesla, Watt create wealth through ingenuity.

@JM-cu6ex

2 жыл бұрын

@@KJSvitko the pie isn’t fixed thought, economic growth is the creation of more pie, and a declining economic growth declines the growth of the pie/shrinks the pie so it’s not that simple. In places like Italy that has had low birth rates for the last couple decades, many young people can’t find a job and many are leaving the country. Less people should mean more jobs to go around, doesn’t seem that way in reality?

@KJSvitko

2 жыл бұрын

@@JM-cu6ex Quality of life is more important than quantity of life. If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a family. No sense having more hungry and homeless people.

I still think about being lectured by my teachers in school about how people were going to starve because the population would just keep rising. Just another thing they lied about.

@rayn3038

2 жыл бұрын

What makes you Think they Lied ? Starvation is Coming …..the more the merrier…..Monsanto warded off the previous predictions with high yield Crops.but ..in India…they learned that the GMO is a dead end street…the phosphate fertilizers …destroying their Soils…it will be Drought…and Volcanic events and Locust….that will ring in the new Millennium….denial will not be an option.

@StreetcarHammock

2 жыл бұрын

An incorrect projection is different than a lie

Harry Dent and some others have been saying this for 8 years or more. Harry Dent even published a book about it back then. It was more about the economic side of it though.

Great Video ….. Thank you very much …. Awesome 👏

I don't take population decline as a bad thing, but a good thing for the earth. Far too many people on this planet as it is.

@richardscathouse

2 жыл бұрын

Perhaps you could show us by example. I'm sure there is a bridge nearby.

@edwardjohannes360

2 жыл бұрын

@@richardscathouse You first.

I forgot to say thankyou ... to Dr. Darrell Bricker and to you Vail Symposium for a truly enlightening report. I am a babyboomer in the 'first' cohort, but my two(of course) children who are now in their20/30's have not got partners or children and will have a very lonely future !!! Just one little example from the other side of the planet.

Even if there's a peak that supposedly will wither down, how do we know that earth's resources won't be completely stripped before then?

@linmal2242

2 жыл бұрын

Well, it will to some extent, but the Earth, Gaia if you like, has a habit of bouncing back over time from asteroid impact, ice ages, extreme global warming. We, Homo Sapiens (ha), are but a little blip on the biosphere; yes a significant recent phenomenon, but we will expire and the planet will persist, with life in all its majesty reasserting itself long after we are gone ! The rainforests will regrow, the Bison will return, the wolves will hunt, and we will diminish ! (Ignore Musk !)

@nobullshoot

2 жыл бұрын

Its called “carrying capacity”. In 2100 with the earth having 10-11 billion city dwellers. The projections are based on stable climate. If climate change is real there could be massive droughts in one place (africa) and massive floods in another. all destroying crops. Africa population is exploding and they will b forced to migrate out of Africa in mass. Iraq had very little water now and yet explosive population growth.

@L0stEngineer

2 жыл бұрын

Earth thinks in eons, we think in minutes. Of course there are destructive habits (like overfishing) that we need to break, but with declining demographics environmental collapse isn't your closest danger.

@chriswatson1698

2 жыл бұрын

@@nobullshoot Africans are already migrating en mass to Europe. They just claim asylum. It is time for those countries that have reined in their own reproduction, to ditch the UN Convention on Refugees. How is it fair for those people who have fewer children than they wanted, to be required to supply a western living standard to the excessively large families of Africans?

@lacy4035

2 жыл бұрын

@@chriswatson1698 Africa these , Africa that ..maybe tell ur government to stop meddling in there land and natural resources....smh U guys are the reason for climate change, small population consuming what an entire continent cannot...if u knew u didn’t like ppl in ur land , go back and tell ur forefathers to sit their azz in their land , u thought after causing havoc in other place urs would be safe...smh

We went from population bomb to population bust, what a time to be alive!

A lot of Europeans ride bikes, and bike lanes are open to other mobility devices. The key is shorter travel distances thanks to less restrictive zoning laws.

@christopherellis2663

2 жыл бұрын

Trams and buses are better in winter, or in the heat of summer.

@-whackd

2 жыл бұрын

Yes, in countries where the people are not fat disgusting pigs, they move around a bit with their bodies each day.

@nunyabidness3075

2 жыл бұрын

Europeans are much better at big government. Most the people who came to the US for a long time rejected government power so it’s no surprise. It’s been shown that there is actually a genetic component to those attitudes. Unfortunately, The early 20th century saw a rejection of small government principles and government has grown and grown ever since. Part of that was housing subsidies that came with zoning restrictions. We now reap what was sown.

@tommyodonovan3883

2 жыл бұрын

I live in Victoria BC, everyone walks, bikes or Bus

@theIdlecrane

2 жыл бұрын

European cities have population like 500k, American Cities, are multiples larger, it just doesn't Work.

As far as I can see it's all good news that is being told here. I'm happy the outlook is not as bleek as it could have been. As far as I'm concerned a world population of about 1 billion is ideal for the planet.

@Subhumanoid_

2 жыл бұрын

500,000,000 but sure, 1 billion is better than 5.

@jesuisravi

2 жыл бұрын

Provided, of course, that you are among the lucky few. My feeling, for what it's worth, is that we have advanced so incredibly fast so incredibly far BECAUSE of the population expansion of the last 2 or 3 hundred years not despite it.

@jeroendebruyne2165

Жыл бұрын

But who is going to grow your food, mine your rare darth metals, assemble.your phone, maintain your roads and take care of you when you are older? A steep population collapse is very problematic. But hey, if you really think less people is better anyways, you can personally contribute to this by a rope, a gun or just an overdose 🤜

Someone, please tell home builders to make small homes with 3 car garages. People need space to store the accumulated junk but small living space that can be easily cleaned by the old person living there.

@StreetcarHammock

2 жыл бұрын

You want half of your home to be garage?

Decreasing the population would be the best, and maybe only solution to a whole host of problems. Climate change, species extinction, resource depletion, pollution, conflicts over territory, and immigration just to name a few.

Very interesting talk.

Bet governments will start forcing people to date within their country and to actively date. I never chase women in USA why cause their ridiculous high standards, requirements and constant nagging. So i go to colombia every 6 months. Ill keep traveling to Colombia every time i can and never spend my money on women in the states.

@davidmarjason4222

2 жыл бұрын

Brother!! I'm the same, I'm so glad I'm not the only one thinking that. 😢

@transforgoku

2 жыл бұрын

They already are doing it, look at Japan, Denmark and Italy, they don't necessarily force their youngster to date but dating services are subsidized by their respective governments, in Spain they even pay for pairing old men from the countryside with spinsters from cities...

@Mosquito-balls

2 жыл бұрын

@@transforgoku thats why i love seeing declining population in developed countries, women with their ridiculous standards all want to date the %1 i hope for our extinction

@Mosquito-balls

2 жыл бұрын

@@davidmarjason4222 before you go be careful i heard more theft and robberies in colombia 🇨🇴

@transforgoku

2 жыл бұрын

@@Mosquito-balls Well, women will be women, they've always been like that, it's just that nowadays open hypergamy it's publicly accepted and normalized through culture. China is currently trying hard to make their citizens breed and have at least 3 children through state-sponsored propaganda and other "incentives", the one child policy there really screwed them up demographically speaking and there's no easy way out of their current demographic winter, if there's any at all, they shot themselves in the foot by agreeing with the pro-malthusian propaganda machine, the country is already becoming Japan 2.0.

Nothing but good news! This video kinda made my day.

@Shikuesi

Жыл бұрын

Sounds like you didn't watch it with any great attention. What do you think the massive aging is going to do to countries' pension and health systems? This is going to be hugely disruptive at so many levels, but what are our governments doing to prepare for it?

@Subhumanoid_

Жыл бұрын

@@Shikuesi Oh no, I watched it with _great_ attention while smacking my lips.

Fertility is linked to EROI (Energy retruned on Energy Invested). In the the sixties EROI was over 100 to 1. Today it is under 17 to 1 and falling. As EROI falls, and it will, populations will fall. In the nineteenth century populations went from under a billion to over 7 billion because of fossil fuels.

@stefke5862

2 жыл бұрын

Don’t forget Western medicines, hygiene and fertilizer, less people dying and more food

@ethanstump

2 жыл бұрын

i mean the rate of profit naturally declines at about .3% per annum. the way we boomed was due to fighting economic systems with a build up of wartime fertility rates in both the capitalist and communist countries. and as you point out, energy costs declined due to oil and gas over coal. as we switch to solar which has an even lower cost per kilowatt hour of 4 cents as compared to fossil fuels 11 cents, we might see a slight bump once again, however i don't think it would be as big as the last bump, but that's just speculation on my part.

@movieklump

2 жыл бұрын

@@ethanstump Without fossil fuels there is no solar. In the 19th century humans found millions of years of energy compressed in oil, gas and coal. Since then the population has grown 8 fold. Solar is like putting a band aid on an amputation.

@dorkladytravels

2 жыл бұрын

Well said, this was an important connection not addressed. So I wonder, as easy, cheap oil runs out, how will the population cope with the fallout?

@ethanstump

2 жыл бұрын

@@movieklump Without fossil fuels there is no solar. that's as old-fashioned as saying without coal there is no oil. many countries use oil and gas only, and have no need for coal. with solar and wind generation, many new storage options are coming online every year, such as vanadium flow batteries, and flow batteries using much cheaper components and materials are exiting development. couple that with the constant power load of a nuclear fusion plant, and no fossil fuels are needed. and sure, you can say this is at least two decades out, however two decades isn't that long in the whole scheme of things. solar and wind already cost less than fossil fuels and based on cost alone, are superior to these other forms of energy. i thought the market was supposed to come up with new innovations? or are you one of those luddites who hated the moon landing? solar is already feasible and more cost effective than other methods at scale, why all the hate? many of the problems of solar have been fixed, are in the phases of being fixed, and some never before seen problems have tons of talented people working on fixing them.

Fewer people in the future world, how can that be bad news.

I'm surprised he did not mention the Amish, Mennonites, Laestadian Lutherans, Hasidic, and other orthodox Jews, whose populations are still growing a good a pace and how long it will take for them to reverse the downward trend in the USA. I think totaled they are about 1 million today but are doubling every 25 years or so.

@christopherellis2663

2 жыл бұрын

Drop in the bucket

@WAL_DC-6B

2 жыл бұрын

This is great news for buggy whip manufacturers!

@amylee9

2 жыл бұрын

You wrote down my exact thoughts. I live close to an Amish community and it’s amazing how many children they still have.

@antoniogutierrez5344

2 жыл бұрын

@@amylee9 The meek will inherit the Earth

@skylinefever

Жыл бұрын

Yes, they will have children. However, I wonder how many are having wonderful family lives? How many just have a bunch of children they hate, and having them repeat a cycle of abuse? What good is a high birth rate if life sucks?

Some of the issue with marketing to older people is as he said, older peolle don't buy as much...so industry is just doubling down on the segment that buys more.

@jandrews6254

2 жыл бұрын

Industry might try looking into what the older generation does want to spend money on. Trouble is, we’re pretty much invisible

many seniors (I'm 92)and could work to use my high level of education by working * this is a nugget that should be exploited!!!

Apparently, these people have never heard of Africa, India, or South America.

Talk to me about a world with less than a billion people in it and I see a paradise compared to today's world. The only hope for human survival is a world with far less population.

@RecklessRusty

2 жыл бұрын

You’re going to love the great reset! That’s the same number the new world order wants as well.

@wisemanwalkingdowntheroad4275

2 жыл бұрын

@@TheClownWorldShow If you have to ask I can't give you an answer.

I don't know how date or feel anything toward humans anymore anyway. I wouldn't know what a baby is too because I sense them from far away and it scares me off. In addition value is inversely proportional to quantity, I'm simply not interested

Minimum replacement birth rate: 2.1 EU birth rate: 1.53 Canada birth rate: 1.47 USA birth rate: 1.70 Russia birth rate: 1.50 Australia birth rate: 1.66 Israel birth rate: 3.00

@weasel9062

2 жыл бұрын

Yeah and the US birthrate is only marginally higher since it's mass importing from the 3rd world.

@calanjameshunt

2 жыл бұрын

while keeping in mind minimum replacement birth rate: requires to be at 2.1 one must keep in mind in 3rd world countries where the death rate prior to procreating is higher then the others... meaning the required minimum birth rate is required to be higher while looking over the worlds current mrbr ratings XD

@LucasFernandez-fk8se

2 жыл бұрын

What are the Jews doing so right?! How’d they get the balance so much better than here ?

@skylinefever

Жыл бұрын

@@LucasFernandez-fk8se When religions demand people make babies or burn in hell, and that is driven into the minds of children, it has a positive effect on birth rates. It might lead to more people with symptoms of paranoid schizophrenia or cPTSD, but apparently those are less bad than a population decline.

@skylinefever

5 ай бұрын

​@@LucasFernandez-fk8sethey are probaby stuck in a "Go forth and multiply or burn in hell" religion. It was common in the USA up until about 40 years ago.

" The pleasure of having kids"? Most of the parents you see in the street with their kids are snapping or yelling at them; the parents look exhausted, miserable or just plain bored.

@AlienGrade

2 жыл бұрын

Bad parents are everywhere, like bad servers at restaurants. But if you see me on the street with my children you will see no yelling just having fun and Yes enjoying my kids is the Ultimate satisfaction this world can ever give me.

@donquiotedoflamingo8960

2 жыл бұрын

@@AlienGrade Children are the wealth of the poor. They are supposed to make us happy.

@AlienGrade

2 жыл бұрын

@@donquiotedoflamingo8960 why did you have to reply? Just to hurt my brain?

@jimlambrick4642

2 жыл бұрын

That is mostly a function of how kids are raised these days. I'm old. In the 50's if a kid was acting like snotty brat he or she would be getting a severe cuff across the ear or behind. Now a parent like that gets send to jail.

@DDSMASH74

2 жыл бұрын

@@AlienGradeI was mainly meaning parents with young kids. Parents with tweens or teens are just ignored/ barely acknowledged. You are an "active" parent. Most people are not and either ignore their kids or coddle them. Just IMO of course.

We listened to experts and PhD's 30 years ago, whining about overpopulation being the root of all evils, this caused today's problem. But I suppose, it's more about being right every day for the day. Partage of labour is anyway in it's last spasms of political, partisan death. I see small agriculture in the future.

I am a millennial in the Netherlands and housing is far too expensive. It has gone up 20%+ for three years in a row :( average house now costs about 500k euro (570k dollar). Taking into consideration overbidding (now the norm 30-100k) and real estate costs (25k) a house is about 550-600k euro (600-700k usd). This is absurd. The average dutch salary is 35k before taxes, 28k after. After living expenses you can maybe save 10k per year... It is simply not mathematically possible anymore for the young generation to buy a house. I am so incredibly depressed about it. I will never own a home. I will never have children. I will never have a "normal" life. It has simply become too expensive.

@daniellathen8798

2 жыл бұрын

That sucks, I'm sorry. And at the same time, attitude is everything. If you think you can't, you can't. If you believe you can, you'll find a way. A way to get a better job, for example, or if they don't exist, start your own company. The average is just that, an average. You are not the average.

@__Wanderer

2 жыл бұрын

@@daniellathen8798 Definitely looking for ways to grow and expand. Although I have a decent job for NL standards (programmer / engineer) it is still not compensated the same as in the US. Will have to look around for sure / start some sort of side hussel because the future is quite bleak otherwise. Thanks for your confidence :)

@curiousbystander9193

2 жыл бұрын

decreasing populations may be the big balancing act to counter all this real estate inflation.....hang in there, stay healthy..... it may happen sooner than you think.

@SC-sh6ux

2 жыл бұрын

I agree, what is the point of boomers driving up house prices if it kills their lineage. Boomers are better off passing money down to their kids now.

@__Wanderer

2 жыл бұрын

@@SC-sh6ux I also think gov. inaction over the last 10 years is to blame. Since 2008 rates have been at zero percent fueling this insane bubble. They have let the fire rage and added trillions (gasoline) to the mix. The result: The highest inflation rate in 40 years. It is so shocking I am not sure if it is greed, corruption or incompetence - or perhaps a mix...

How about a $25,000 per child deduction. It's preposterous to have deductions less than the cost to raise a child.

I am one of six children, my parents were encouraged to have large families by giving them money ( family allowance ) just after the war, perhaps this should be encouraged. The issue which you eluded to is who is going to pay for state pensions when the majority are retired.

@maplenook

2 жыл бұрын

Pensions are a last century concept

@calanjameshunt

2 жыл бұрын

@@maplenook sadly we cant just throw old people in a ditch and call it a day... we will all too soon be old ourselves friend... australia is fazing out the old age pension for superfunds... gota work to fill said fund... those who cant work will still in one way or another be a burden... single mothers are a pretty interesting topic regarding the fazing out of old age pension... career baby makers will be left with no superfund and possibly no old age pension if they never manage to secure a partner....

This is good news. The planet, and us, have a chance.

@calanjameshunt

2 жыл бұрын

going the way of the panda boo... remember that quote regarding panda's from fight club???

If we want women to have babies, we need to support them financially and with enough facilities to make their life easier.

@toriknorth3324

2 жыл бұрын

Supporting women financially? sounds like socialism, no way that would happen in the US

@chriswatson1698

2 жыл бұрын

What happens to women in capitalist countries when they have completed the task of raising their children? Does the government con women into having children, then abandon them when all their career prospects are gone?

@toriknorth3324

2 жыл бұрын

speaking of machines, I predict that test tube babies are only a few decades away. that way anyone could have babies whenever they want. biologists are already growing lambs this way so it's not too farfetched. government support for having babies would need to be done carefully though. we already have examples of potential problems from the US foster care system. some foster parents try to get as many foster kids as possible and spend as little as possible on them so that the parents can keep the remaining government stipend for themselves.

COVID 19 is more arson than wildfire :)

Also, we all need to stop consuming so that we don't suffer complete ecological collapse.

@davidlafleche1142

2 жыл бұрын

Tell that to greedy Republicans and Democrats. Quite a few of them are overweight!

@elinope4745

2 жыл бұрын

I don't know a single western woman over the age of 30 who has a smaller greenhouse footprint than me in my 40's. Compare your trash and footprint to women you know. Climate change is man made and woman purchased.