Dealing With Poker Downswings Like a Professional
More tips on poker ending downswings: automaticpoker.com/strategy/p...
If you play poker long enough, you will deal with a soul-crushing downswing.. in fact, you will deal with soul crushing downswings multiple times a year. Playing poker professionally or semi-professionally is unique to other jobs in that, day to day, you never know whether you will actually make money or lose money. So being able to mitigate the losing periods we encounter is an extremely important skill to master. In this video, I give you 3 tips on how to navigate those times when everything just seems to be going the wrong way, help you minimize the losses you sustain, and get back on the winning track asap.
I have had some pretty crazy downswings over the past few years. The most recent occurred during my spare change challenge. After a few really bad days, I took a deep breath, called upon my mental reserves and and managed to get back on track.
Tip 1- The best way to deal with downswings happen before your next downswing. Most people fail at poker because of mental weakness and not understanding how poker works on a fundamental level. Make sure you understand that a long term poker career is actually just a series of upswings and downswings. No one runs exactly their expected value or expected win-rate day in and day out. One day you might run 50bb/100 and the next day 45bb/100.. while the -45bb/100 day really suck, you are still, after those two days, a 5bb winning player. It's when several of those losing days come at at once over consecutive days, that mind games can start and we get tricked into believing something is wrong with us, or that we are just unlucky, etc. etc. etc. Solution Actively work on the mental side of poker. Try to distance yourself from the hand to hand and hour to hour results. You might do this by not looking at the cashier. I used to only look at my cashier once a week,.. its really libertaing to remain ignorant of how you did on a particular day. Does your daily poker result determine your mood? If so.. avoiding looking at day to day results is probably a good idea for you. Even during sessions we can use this tactic. If you stack your tables, or stack and tile your tables, don't watch individual all-ins to see if you won or not. Just move on to another hand on another table and focus on making the most +EV decision you can. It'd be nice to be a vulcan and be able to remain detached and completely logical all of the time, but unfortunately, we are humans. Focusing on each little result is the road to mental destruction. Remain positive, learn to think long term, stop worrying about short term results, or stop knowing about them altogether, and you will find you are tilting less, and not exacerbating the downswings you endure.
Tip 2- Follow a reasonable bankroll management plan and stick to it. Don't chase losses, just move down, maybe even take a break, regain some confidence and grind it back up. My advice is to be very deeply bankrolled, making it less likely to ever sustain a downswing that requires moving down. If you are a part-time player, it's a good idea to keep the same amount you have online. In other words, if you have 3k online and grind 100nl... have 3k behind. If you hit a huge downswing down to like 2k online, you can move 500 from the bank account and lessen the period needed to rebuild. Just make sure you replenish the "emergency fund" once you are able. And be sure to bolster it during the good times. If poker is your sole source of income, I suggest always having at least 6 months of living expenses behind, preferably 1 year or more. You never want your poker downswing to put pressure on real life or force you to change your lifestyle.
Tip 3- Make sure you continue to study and improve. Make sure you invest a portion of your bankroll to coaching and getting better. In fact, it's no secret that, the better you are, the less awful your downswings will be. I once went 18 months running about $20,000 under ev.. but still managed to win money during that period. How did I do this? I had a 10bb ev winrate during that period but a 2bb actual win-rate.. ouch right? All of those early years I spent building a solid foundation and my consistent daily study paid off. Imagine if I had a 4bb win-rate and had the same type of disparity between my ev and actual win-rate.. I would have probably been down to playing micros again and likely wouldn't be making this video.
In summary, the best way to deal with a downswing actually has nothing to do with mitigating it when it happens. With proper preparation and knowledge, you can actively plan for downswings and understand that they are just part of the game. We do this by actively working on our mental game, following a conservative BR management plan, and working hard to become the best player we can be.
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I built a 40 big blind chart-based cash game strategy that takes advantage of poker population errors. Perfect for those that prefer a straightforward math-based strategy! automaticpoker.com
@ernestsolomon2481
2 жыл бұрын
Sorry to be so offtopic but does any of you know a method to get back into an instagram account? I stupidly lost my password. I would love any tricks you can offer me
What is this "upswing" you speak of?
@AutomaticPoker
5 жыл бұрын
lol indeed
This video is so, so helpful. Thank you
Well done, sick amount of videos that you've uploaded over the years!
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
Subscribed for the good content mate!
Great stuff. People often ignore this aspect of poker. Downswings are inevitable, pretty often at times too. My new fave poker KZreadr , wish I found you alot earlier man.
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
Thanks, that means a lot to me!
Just found this. I am a professional trader and only a recreational poker player. But the messages in this video are just as applicable for either activity - great video - thanks and I just became your 1000th subscriber! All the best, MV
Bro, I love your videos.. Thank you... You remind me of myself. I grind micros, been playin since 2003, just lost my job so I'm like 6-10 tabling 10NL, 20NL and 50NL. Thanks for your effort, hope to talk to you more.
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
Sorry about your job! Good luck at the tables, I hope you run it up quickly.
great video Dude lots of great info
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
Good video, thanks a lot.
I play live poker and it is impossible to not be affected by swing. Main issue for me is that I start to have doubt about my game fundamentals...here I am reflecting and learning
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
Thanks for commenting! It's something we all struggle with. Try to keep your head up and remember to have fun.. although that's hard when running bad.
@MugenTJ
5 жыл бұрын
volcano hi - wow that was a year ago. I had another swing few months ago. No longer I doubt my game but definitely tried to move it a step up. The past 2-3 months has been great. Looking to end the year with another milestone.
Sound levels are good in this video.
I've found that having 1 year of living expenses and 100 BI's helps me to reduce tilt very very well.
@AutomaticPoker
4 жыл бұрын
Agree 100%, thanks for commenting!
@isntit8107
3 жыл бұрын
Cash game, right?
Much better 👍
nice video, thanks!
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the comment, and you're welcome. :)
Great video. Downswings, truly are inevitable. I play 1-2 live cash. I play around 20-30 hours a week for the past 6-7 months. I've played nearly 15-20k hands. I'm currently exactly break-even. I had 4 winning months and about 2-3 losing months. For example: first month in i lost 2,000$ couldn't believe it i was devastated. 2nd month i won 3k, 3rd won 900, 4th won 500, 5th break-even, 6th I've lost 900. Leaves me at about 1,000$ profit. After what 1,000 hours on the felt?. Very swingy game.
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
Aaron Soto Indeed. All we can do is focus on each hand and enjoy the ride.
@Camcolito
5 жыл бұрын
The problem is 20k hands is a tiny sample. It really is. It can take live players a long time to play that many hands, but you could be running +- 10bbs/100 for that sample easily.
@MugenTJ
5 жыл бұрын
Camcolito - 6months is a long time, 20k hands is also a lot of hands. Ppl seem to have different perspective of what is considered ‘short term’. Yeah I lost over 30k playing 100-300NL first 3 months, as a beginner (little to no experience). I continue the same game and starting to profit as end of 1st year. 2nd and 3rd year I already quit my job and pay the bills. 4-5th year saving to pay off student loans on top of the bills. If my game can’t win me money monthly I would have been fucked! My longest swing last at best a month , only lost 2.5k, and I felt it was my fault to let it last that long. Granted we are all different, that could be why this game is not so boring and has great potential. Personally I can’t tolerate a 3 month swing, with a negative cash flow. If that happens sure it could be just pure bad luck, or I need to step up my game.
How do you feel about taking time off of poker during a downswing? I feel it helped my mental game a lot to take a few months off playing and do some other things. I would play a few freerolls and started playing a few small stakes games after a month of collecting change while goofing around and found some joy in the game again, and things seem to be working well down the road. I was for sure playing too many tables as well, that's a huge problem during prolonged swings, play less tables and focus more on all decisions and your tilt should be minimized.
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
I'd say that as long as you are enjoying yourself, breaks are never necessary. Since volume is the biggest weapon we have against variance, I am not a big fan of prolonged breaks. However, your mental health comes first.. you will have to be the judge of whether that is in jeopardy. If a day or two break isn't enough to overcome tilt and come back fresh, then you might have more deep seeded problems that need addressed. My advice is to focus on the reality of where money comes from in poker, and, spend 90% of your study time focusing on the basic strategy to beat the games you play in. The other 10% is spent on specific adjustments. These are not hard and fast numbers, find what works for you.
Most people do not know what truly running bad is. The way to survive in poker is too play a ton when you run good amd stop playing when your running bad. Anyone who says otherwise is wrong
Poker took me in the back room, and beat the shit out of me. I have to get 4 jobs now!
Came here to see the pain. WHERE IS THE PAIN!
i have started bk playing short stack strategy in this year after 2.5k hands in 888, my green line is losing around 50 and the all-in eq line is about -15... it is normal, or either i am the one who are causing this problem (like shoving too light post-flop) or is the problem of 888 poker? since i have hear there are some kinds of problems happening in the site :(
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
stanley fok Without seeing your graph and stats it's hard to say what's going on. I understand that 888 is still fairly soft, but not positive. All you can do is keep studying and plugging leaks and the rest should take care of itself. Make sure you are focusing on table selection and adjusting to the dynamic on every hand. Good luck and let me know how it goes!
I’m coming to poker stars to try and grind out a profit playing nl20/30 or there about I want to play 4 tables minimum , what’s the story with rake ? On poker stars any help ? Thanks guys
@AutomaticPoker
5 жыл бұрын
www.pokerstars.com/poker/room/rake/?no_redirect=1 Unable to play on Pokerstars, live in the US.. sorry I can't help more.
How to not look at your cashier when you see your balance every time when you join a table? I lose all my profit on sports bets, its my biggest issue right now...
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
If there is an auto buy-in feature, you can just avert your eyes while it buys in at the table. I have to not look at my balance and drag the client partially off screen to avoid it. It can be done, just takes some discipline. Sports betting is the devil btw. :) I would avoid all table games as well as sports bets, stick to skill games.
i can tell that I am talented, but i do lack on the mental weakness. any tips for me?
@AutomaticPoker
5 жыл бұрын
One thing that has helped me is to play as if you're almost in a third-person perspective. Pretend like there is a poker angel on your shoulder who makes the decisions for you, making you incapable of making a decision that you know is minus EV. Sounds ridiculous, I know. But that crap works for me LOL. Other than that just avoid looking at results while you play. In fact, I only check my results once per week and avoid looking at Holdem Manager or my cashier during that period. Each week is a reset and then I play out my weekly sessions and then see how I did. Rinse repeat. Oh, and make sure you have a super deep bankroll. Shallow bankrolls are only for the super mentally tough.
@Insanity-vv9nn
5 жыл бұрын
@@AutomaticPoker thanks for the help
What stakes and format do you play?
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
I'm primarily a cash game player, although not playing much lately. Up to 600NL. I am learning Spins currently, as time allows.
bro my downswing is like 2 years now and still continues .. you can imagine how much mentally fucked i am right now. its a fking downswing for sure because i had 120k mtt cashes total until before 2 years ,from then i cant make any ft with an expeption of 1 ft last year(did i forget thegame?lol)... the mentality breaks with the way i lose you know what i mean..i always lose from a donkey fish from 1 and 2 % on ft bubbles etc . my problem is that i cant handle mentally my downswing anymore i think my fking heart will stop in sometime from the anxiety .what do you suggest for this thanks
@AutomaticPoker
3 жыл бұрын
I feel your pain.. I was about 30k under even over an 18-month stretch. It sucks hard. What seemed to help get me out of my funk was to return to the fundamentals and simplify my play for like 10k hands. At the same time, I worked hard on my mental game. Basically, I decided to just stop whining about losing and have more positivity. It worked overnight.. my win-rate went back up immediately. Long story short, there are 3 things to try: 1. Take a step back and simplify your poker process. Try to go back in time to how you were playing during the winning period. 2. View bad beats and losing as part of the natural course of a poker career. Focus on not caring if you lose term and instead look at the big picture. Most of all, get control of any emotional issues or tilt. 3. Have faith that you re making +EV plays. If you aren't sure if you are still using a winning strategy, get professional help.
so, im a weaker mental player. no matter how my br its im always going broke, because idk, i have ansiety to win more and more, and no stick to a level. I never have a single bankroll for 1 month, i was crushing nl10 but any win i made i go to a mtt like bounty $109. The thing is im like desesperate to hit a bomb, idk how to be pacient (no in the game) on the long terms. If you can give me some advice i will apreciate good videos!
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
Hi and thanks for commenting. I understand how tough it is to not take shots in order to try and hit a big score. Actually, if you are a recreational player and do not play poker as an income, it's okay to just take shots for fun as your main income allows. However, if you have aspirations to start having a steady income from poker, you will need to work on bankroll management. One idea is to just grind the level that you are bankrolled adequately for, and at the end of each month set aside half your winnings for "shots." Leave the rest in your main bankroll and once you are rolled for 25NL, or whatever, move up. I recently finished a 4 part "tutorial" on building a strong foundation for poker. Since you are an advanced player, I recommend starting on part 3. automaticpoker.com/how-to-play-poker/basic-fundamentals/ I have a section in there on the mental game and bankroll management. Good luck and let me know how it goes!
@patriciofalotico1940
6 жыл бұрын
AutomaticPoker wow what an answer thank you so much, you are my second favorite poker KZread playwr (first its ben from raiseyouredge) lol, I will watch it, thanks
@WooHooWooM
5 жыл бұрын
Nice BRM :)
my question is: I make +ev plays most of the times, like 95% or more I guess. Still: I always get crushed by lucky players all the time. Even if I have some good days, after that very bad days come for sure where I lose like 5 or 6 buy ins for no f cking reason because a random guy called with J8o or some shit and then hit twopair vs my AA or KK ... it never gets better. I still play my solid game and keep adjusting the raises (make it bigger for fish), and still I lose.
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
Hi DJ, thanks for commenting. If you are making almost all +EV plays, then the money will come. However, I would encourage you to always be trying to make better +EV plays. Study study study your HHs.. because there is always a slightly better way to play every hand. I am 100% sure that 95% of my plays could be much better. Don't worry about "lucky" players, since they are where profit comes from. In fact, letting what they do bother you in any way is possibly affecting the quality of your plays via hard or soft tilt. Try to get past getting frustrated by results, and instead try to learn from every session, especially bad ones. Check out this video if you havent already. kzread.info/dash/bejne/imGmmJhqfNuagNo.html Thanks and let me know if I can help, I'm here anytime!
@ifiity6147
6 жыл бұрын
Thanks a lot!
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
No problem and good luck beating up the fish!
@ifiity6147
6 жыл бұрын
Thanks, well, I applied everything. I am still losing. If I am on a downswing, then I lose every pot. I made the raises bigger, they still call and win.
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
I'm gonna give you a bit of tough love, please don't be offended. The statements you are making shows a bit of lack of understanding on how poker works. It simply doesn't work the way you describe. "Applied everything", "I am still losing", "made the raises bigger.." all of these things sound like "tilt talk" and really won't help you turn around the downswing. I have gone through miserable periods of time and had downswings of several thousand dollars. It happens to everyone. My advice is to get back to the basics and fundamentals of position, initiative, and pressure... forget winning or losing. If the amount you are losing hurts, drop down in stakes. Make sure you are focusing on the EV of every single situation and not be worried about losing or winning. Losing or winning this hand does not matter at all! All that matters is that you make the best +EV decision you can. The devil is in the details.. focus more on working on you and less on others. (except in adjusting to their style of play) I am only saying this because I want you to succeed.. not to belittle you at all, so I hope you take this advice in a positive way and buckle down on overhauling your mental game asap. Recommended reading (besides my book lol) is Professional No-Limit Hold'em, amzn.to/2FLnd3o. Also, here is an article I wrote on downswings. automaticpoker.com/stopping-poker-slump.html Good luck and try to be positive (I know it's hard when lots of bad beats happen)
good video, you have to sweedish right? haha
Called Bots
Live poker is great but online.... i get the feeling that it’s more about rake, action action. all is good till the turn and river... runners impossible bad beats. it’s hard there to understand how to play, because seems to me the book of poker what is the best hand doesn’t work... if i have 4off a kind on flop & something happen and i loosing to running straight-flush. if i have pair of 44 wins against AA. KK are the worst. always looses. somebody have A-something and it’s on the flop... 2pairs loosing to higher 2pairs due to runners ... and so on... It’s fun but the resolution is WTF? this is a game of pure luck... right. ? how can you be professional in Luck? i don’t get it... you lucky you professional player, you unlucky you looser...
@AutomaticPoker
5 жыл бұрын
Hi Janis. Profit in poker comes from making profitable decisions over and over again against opponents who are making unprofitable decisions over and over. The worse your opponents, the more you make. Check out this video kzread.info/dash/bejne/imGmmJhqfNuagNo.html
@fundiver198
5 жыл бұрын
Live or online. Variance, bad beats and coolers are part of poker, and thats just the way, it is. If it feel like, there is more of it online, its because of the much higher volume of hands, you can play. Online its possible to put in the same amount of hands in just a single day, as would take a live player a whole month. This mean, that your brain has much less time to absorb the negative feeling from a bad beat, before the next one will happen.
@yowild9629
5 жыл бұрын
@@fundiver198 it does make sence. Man but it doesnt answer my bigest q here. Is or is it not a game of luck... how much is luck and how much is the odss for you to get the nuts on flop and loose at the river. Or vice verse. What im getting here It makes sence for online poker as in any business that do not value farness to adjust the coming flops to the player cards to improve on their income. How sure are you than its legit? Just a thougth
@AutomaticPoker
5 жыл бұрын
@@yowild9629 Poker profit is determined by which player makes more profitable decisions.. a profitable decision is defined by "expected value", or "EV". In other words, if you make a bet or call that will win money over an infinite amount of instances, it is +EV.. if it loses money, its -EV. EV is always measured over the long term, never the short term. Short term, luck makes a big difference... since +EV decisions can lose several times in a row. That's what is so attractive for some people, the fact that they can win against the best player in the world over one or two sessions. However, over 10 sessions, 50 sessions, 500 sessions, the skilled players rule the day. Put another way.. poker is a game of decision points. Each poker hand typically has between 1 and 20 decision points. Multiply that over a 200 hand session and you usually have over 1000 individual decisions made. If you make a more profitable decision 700 of those 1000 times, you are going to crush someone who makes a profitable decision 500/1000 times. And the 500/1000 person is going to crush a 3000/1000 person. On down the line. Does that make sense?
Dealing with a rigged software sounds a better title. Do you really dream to be a professionnal or to become one? You have to win AT least 50 k a year during 5 years to pretend to. Under this balance it s just a waste of time compared to an "ok" job considering how much time you will spend in front of a computer...
@AutomaticPoker
6 жыл бұрын
It certainly seems like it sometimes, but that's perception only and not reality. I have no aspirations to be a poker player only.. it's just a hobby for me and has been a nice supplemental income over the years. Mostly, I enjoy it.. and as long as that's the case, will keep at it.
Im down 13 BI's today. Not a single good hand is holding up. Jesus fkn christ -_-
@AutomaticPoker
3 жыл бұрын
Sorry to hear that. We all have days/weeks like that :/ Tomorrow is another day though.. you'll hopefully be up 15+ buyins tomorrow. :)
Too many ads
@AutomaticPoker
4 жыл бұрын
I took some out, thanks for letting me know.
This is Bullshit sorry - I have friends who run bad ALL THE TIME, for years. One of them got the nickname "Suckout". Im a pretty reasonable person .... but i have seen so much bullshit with SUCKOUT - that i dont believe that there is math behind "LUCK". I play with him for over 10 years now and ive seen him win with the best hand on a preflop shove - just twice as far as i can remember. Seen him got 3 outed 4 times in one Session tho... :D shout out to Suckout - Thomas by the way :D :D :D
Why to play poker to make a living then? It doesn't make sense in anyway!
@AutomaticPoker
Жыл бұрын
I don't, it's a side income only. For those that do, it's the hourly rate that matters.. I know people with 1000/hr hourly rates.. not too shabby
@FreeFlow__
15 күн бұрын
cause you make money?! 😂
Sounds a little like living as a functioning alcoholic….
@FreeFlow__
15 күн бұрын
shut up man
You lose all credibility early on in the video by saying you have had "more than your fair share" of downswings. You haven't. Everyone thinks that. Maths & statistics work the same for us all.
@AutomaticPoker
5 жыл бұрын
Sorry, didn't mean to imply that.. I agree completely. That was more of a shout out to people who have followed me for years and know how far under EV I have run over that period. Sorry for not clarifying that in the video.
Liked the talk but you tilted me when you said the best players are those who can "minimize their downswings". ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME? MINIMIZE MY DOWNSWINGS? PLEASE GIVE ME THE FUCKING PILL THAT CAN MINIMIZE MY DOWNSWING. THERE IS NO FUCKING THING IN EXISTENCE THAT CAN MINIMIZE DOWNSWINGS.
Terrible advice