Cascading Tipping Points and Early Warning Signals showing a Critical Slowing Down

Ғылым және технология

I chat about tipping point cascades in the climate system and Early Warming Signals that show we are rapidly approaching a multitude of tipping points.
A good analogy is that of dominos, we often think of one chain of dominos, where one topples the next, and so on until they all fall down. Some tipping points are like this, but the AMOC collapse would be more like parallel chains of dominos, where one domino tipping hits 2 or 3 other dominos simultaneously, causing a multitude of tipping chains, which is a greatly magnified effect.
Let’s say the first thing that tips is the Arctic Sea Ice loss and then massive Greenland Ice Sheet calving. This would inject large amounts of fresh water into the Arctic, and the lighter water could shut down the AMOC. This would cool the whole high-latitude Northern hemisphere. Thus, it would stabilize and regrow Arctic Sea Ice, Greenland, and slow down and even reverse permafrost loss. The Southern Hemisphere would warm, the ITCZ would shift southward, tropical monsoons would shift southward, the ENSO would likely change to a near permanent El Niño, and we would really be in a different world. Eventually, the warming in the north would re-establish itself and come to dominate the cooling effects with a vengeance.
Via statistical analysis on the dynamics of system change, we have various Early Warning System (EWS) indicators that give us some clues as to how close we are to thresholds of various Earth system tipping elements. Importantly, most systems exhibit a critical slowing down as they lose resilience when we near threshold of tipping; this is reflected in an increase in the autocorrelation functions. I chat about the many tipping elements that are showing these EWS signs in an alarming way.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

Пікірлер: 227

  • @PaulHBeckwith
    @PaulHBeckwithАй бұрын

    I chat about tipping point cascades in the climate system and Early Warming Signals that show we are rapidly approaching a multitude of tipping points. A good analogy is that of dominos, we often think of one chain of dominos, where one topples the next, and so on until they all fall down. Some tipping points are like this, but the AMOC collapse would be more like parallel chains of dominos, where one domino tipping hits 2 or 3 other dominos simultaneously, causing a multitude of tipping chains, which is a greatly magnified effect. Let’s say the first thing that tips is the Arctic Sea Ice loss and then massive Greenland Ice Sheet calving. This would inject large amounts of fresh water into the Arctic, and the lighter water could shut down the AMOC. This would cool the whole high-latitude Northern hemisphere. Thus, it would stabilize and regrow Arctic Sea Ice, Greenland, and slow down and even reverse permafrost loss. The Southern Hemisphere would warm, the ITCZ would shift southward, tropical monsoons would shift southward, the ENSO would likely change to a near permanent El Niño, and we would really be in a different world. Eventually, the warming in the north would re-establish itself and come to dominate the cooling effects with a vengeance. Via statistical analysis on the dynamics of system change, we have various Early Warning System (EWS) indicators that give us some clues as to how close we are to thresholds of various Earth system tipping elements. Importantly, most systems exhibit a critical slowing down as they lose resilience when we near threshold of tipping; this is reflected in an increase in the autocorrelation functions. I chat about the many tipping elements that are showing these EWS signs in an alarming way. Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.

  • @JimmyMarquardsen

    @JimmyMarquardsen

    Ай бұрын

    Dear Paul, I want to give you DKK 1000 (Danish currency), but I don't have paypal (and I refuse to use it), so what do I do?

  • @johnkintree763

    @johnkintree763

    Ай бұрын

    We may cross this year, 2024, a threshold for networked digital agents that run on smartphones and other personal computers that can build a merged graph representation of the entities and relationships in the things we say and do, a fact checked shared world model for planning collective action.

  • @paxwallace8324

    @paxwallace8324

    Ай бұрын

    So is there a PacMOC or SOMOC ? Southern Ocean Overturning Current

  • @andrewtrip8617

    @andrewtrip8617

    Ай бұрын

    Sounds like a misuse of the words tip and cascade . They both imply a decent or fall from a high point downwards .,.They are not applicable in this context .what exactly will fall after we reach the tip .what will cascade to the bottom when we tip ?How cold is it going to get ?

  • @paxwallace8324

    @paxwallace8324

    Ай бұрын

    @@andrewtrip8617 There's no simple answer that's easy. So once Venus had running water now the surface temperature is the melting point of lead. Venus had run away green house effect. When folks use the words cascade or tipping point they're saying separate positive self reinforcing feedback loops can and will begin to amplify each other. The result of this can be exponential.This kind of process brought about the Permian Extinction 250 million years ago. It's no joke.

  • @rolandgo6744
    @rolandgo6744Ай бұрын

    Paul, you labored too much to inform us. Thank you very much. Very much appreciated.

  • @Spice1_
    @Spice1_Ай бұрын

    Thank you Paul

  • @TheDoomWizard
    @TheDoomWizardАй бұрын

    "Negative warning signals. So we got all of these different factors." On repeat. It's just too much sometimes. Thank you for your work and dedicated.

  • @BROWNDIRTWARRIOR
    @BROWNDIRTWARRIORАй бұрын

    The mother of all tipping points meets the mother of all special interests -- the global economy. Who will win out. I think we know.

  • @rickszarlu9201

    @rickszarlu9201

    Ай бұрын

    Yeah, Capitalism is not suitable for sustainable human society, neither is authoritarian regime (like the USA) so we are f*d!

  • @haitianhoodoo265

    @haitianhoodoo265

    Ай бұрын

    Mind boggling , truly .

  • @protodvd

    @protodvd

    Ай бұрын

    I mean... they both lose

  • @BROWNDIRTWARRIOR

    @BROWNDIRTWARRIOR

    Ай бұрын

    @@protodvd The planet has been through geological upheaval before many times and will bounce back over geological time. In the sands of time, we are but a one-off hour glass.

  • @billpetersen298

    @billpetersen298

    Ай бұрын

    You can’t really blame the economy. As technology advances, more billions of us, have access to houses refrigerators and cars. The desire for a better life, and a family. Is our downfall. Irony.

  • @roberthornack1692
    @roberthornack1692Ай бұрын

    Even if the AMOC shuts down the Earth will still continue to heat, even more so when farmers are impacted & store shelves are empty & businesses close. Less economic activity creates less cooling aerosols which creates increased heating!

  • @maxsmith695

    @maxsmith695

    Ай бұрын

    What are cooling aerosols?

  • @NimbleBard48

    @NimbleBard48

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@maxsmith695 You can see it in IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM on page 9 (Figure SPM.2): - sulphur dioxide - nitrogen oxide - organic carbon - ammonia Although sulphur dioxide is ressponsible for majority of the cooling effect.

  • @sobolanul82

    @sobolanul82

    Ай бұрын

    ​​@@maxsmith695I don't know why but I cannot put a link from Vimeo. There is a BBC documentary about aerosols pollution which has the reverse effect of cooling the planet. It's called Global Dimming - The Cause of Contrails&Chemtrails.

  • @pedromarrero

    @pedromarrero

    Ай бұрын

    Pollution ​@@maxsmith695

  • @ferrreira

    @ferrreira

    Ай бұрын

    @@maxsmith695aerosols are fine particles that stay in the atmosphere for a long time, they are known to have an atmospheric cooling effect because they reflect sunlight back into space. Paul has shown numerous papers which have demonstrated that a reduction in the sulfur content in fuel for ships has caused an increase in heating, since there's less aerosols over the oceans now. Less aerosols > less cloud formation > sunlight hitting dark oceans instead of white clouds > more energy being absorbed.

  • @bipl8989
    @bipl8989Ай бұрын

    I live in the Canaries, right under that big dot in the Atlantic. Its happening. This "winter" the lowest temperature I measured, 15°C, was 5°C higher than it was in the last 7 yrs.

  • @PurplePeopleEater_0_00_07

    @PurplePeopleEater_0_00_07

    Ай бұрын

    and what was it 8 years ago?

  • @jrgenvansligtenhorst4640

    @jrgenvansligtenhorst4640

    Ай бұрын

    @@PurplePeopleEater_0_00_07 I think 5 degrees Celsius lower:)

  • @irenafarm

    @irenafarm

    Ай бұрын

    I noticed that the normal hurricane path across the Atlantic and then northward was looking very weird last year. One data point has exactly zero relevance, but it makes me really uneasy.

  • @JimmyMarquardsen
    @JimmyMarquardsenАй бұрын

    I send a loving thought to Gaia: Protect all life. I get a loving thought back from Gaia: I can't. And I feel Gaia's pain...and then I cry. Because I understand why.

  • @andrewphilip3308

    @andrewphilip3308

    Ай бұрын

    The only thing which will extinguish life is a 150 ppm or less CO2 in the atmosphere.

  • @hooplawithbilliesue8143
    @hooplawithbilliesue8143Ай бұрын

    Thanks Paul

  • @CandC68
    @CandC68Ай бұрын

    Thank you Paul.

  • @maxsmith695
    @maxsmith695Ай бұрын

    At what point did the scientific community begin to take notice of climate change, start publishing papers and comparing data points. I have read that Exxon established a department in 1977 to track world wide emissions and climate change. Their numbers and forecasts turned out to be highly accurate. By the time the public was catching on to climate change as a serious matter to deal with, in 2003, Exxon flipped its effort to funding climate skeptics, as they would stand to lose the most with regulations added to their industry.

  • @andrewphilip3308

    @andrewphilip3308

    Ай бұрын

    Their numbers and forecasts turned out to be highly accurate --- I don't believe you --provide proper references

  • @ferrreira

    @ferrreira

    Ай бұрын

    Scientists have talked about climate change at least since the 19th century. But "progress" always seems to be more important

  • @jayleeper1512

    @jayleeper1512

    Ай бұрын

    The effect of CO2 on climate and the potential for climate disruption was discovered and postulated by a French scientist in 1837.

  • @maxsmith695

    @maxsmith695

    Ай бұрын

    @@ferrreira The only climate issues I can recall getting any press coverage in the 1970’s and 1980’s were air pollution and water pollution. The media centered their focus on NYC and LA. The culprit for this pollution was cars. Once cars emitted less pollution and skies cleared, the pollution worries for most waned. The concern over climate warming, in the past 25 years, has always been met with a larger and louder voice from the doubter world, uniformly claiming it is a big bad tax shakedown. I liken that crowd to the bar patrons on Key West drinking on the pier, as a Cat 4 is headed their way. When the storm moves east or west, and the winds do not make the person a decal on a building, they proclaim the weather forecasters are fear mongering.

  • @grahamthompson2594

    @grahamthompson2594

    Ай бұрын

    Wallace presented the science to the British Parliament in 1904

  • @Spice1_
    @Spice1_Ай бұрын

    Amoc shutting down!

  • @lightclawshadowmarsch8167
    @lightclawshadowmarsch8167Ай бұрын

    Got to love all these volcanic eruptions there triggering a new ice age

  • @VideoconferencingUSA
    @VideoconferencingUSAАй бұрын

    Nice job

  • @chrisf1761
    @chrisf1761Ай бұрын

    Thank you for informing us

  • @enochpage1333
    @enochpage1333Ай бұрын

    Thanks for giving things to watch out for.

  • @ankhenaten2
    @ankhenaten2Ай бұрын

    I love it

  • @A3Kr0n
    @A3Kr0nАй бұрын

    It sounds like we're going to have to wait and see what happens since there are so many possibilities.

  • @user-zb1yy2xm9v

    @user-zb1yy2xm9v

    Ай бұрын

    🤍 I'm not going to be here for the end result 🤍

  • @Jaopazo
    @JaopazoАй бұрын

    Awesome talk, thanks a lot for talking about this. As a person with litle time I preciate this work a lot.

  • @JimmyMarquardsen
    @JimmyMarquardsenАй бұрын

    Dear Paul, I want to give you DKK 1000 (Danish currency), but I don't have paypal (and I refuse to use it), so what do I do?

  • @PaulHBeckwith

    @PaulHBeckwith

    Ай бұрын

    Thanks Jimmy, you can try an e-transfer

  • @JimmyMarquardsen

    @JimmyMarquardsen

    Ай бұрын

    @@PaulHBeckwith I think the easiest and safest way is for me to transfer the money directly from my bank account to your bank account. I just need your IBAN number/account number, BIC/Swift code and bank code.

  • @frinoffrobis
    @frinoffrobisАй бұрын

    the mother of all amoc's,, yes I've heard him say that in the past

  • @petrlonsky2332
    @petrlonsky2332Ай бұрын

    AMOC collapse is not only Mother of tipping points, but also very controversial topic to discuss with climate change deniers. Already in these cool days is quite hard to discuss the topic of planet warming with anybody who freeze outside. I hope you will emphasize in the next episode, how profoundly AMOC collapse will change lives of ordinary people in north hemisphere. And that AMOC collapse isn't something what will reduce impacts of warming planet or cool it down and we should wait for it with hope for deus et machina....

  • @punditgi
    @punditgiАй бұрын

    Paul, is this your personal tipping point to install a heat pump? And should you go with air source or ground source? The latter is more expensive but should work better for you up there in Ottawa. Stay warm, monsieur! 😊

  • @alanlu8625

    @alanlu8625

    Ай бұрын

    Might be local heating: no need to heat the whole space if the only heating service you need is to stay warm personally

  • @alanj9978

    @alanj9978

    Ай бұрын

    @@alanlu8625 In Ottawa you have to heat the whole house unless you like frozen/broken water lines and living in mould.

  • @alanlu8625

    @alanlu8625

    Ай бұрын

    @@alanj9978 true, but beyond equipment maintenance, local heating services for biological function is more frugal than heating the whole house for one person

  • @MichaelTBishop
    @MichaelTBishopАй бұрын

    What is the link to the report?

  • @KarsonsChannel
    @KarsonsChannelАй бұрын

    Hi Paul, about how many years do you think we have left approximately?

  • @ashergoney
    @ashergoneyАй бұрын

    Monsoons In the Region Of Indian Ocean Is From July till End Of November or till December.. 2 Winter Months Followed by 2 Summer Months May And June at Peak High Humidity and Temperatures

  • @suzzalaska
    @suzzalaskaАй бұрын

    Place looks good tho!

  • @tomaseriksson4533
    @tomaseriksson4533Ай бұрын

    Stupid question but can the shut down on AMOC also mean that Antartica get cooler? If both Arctic and Antartica get cooler and the Equator get warmer at the same time as circulation of deep water ends it will mean: - Larger differences in surface temperature between the pools and the Equator. - Change from deep water circulation of heat (AMOC etc) to surface/wind transportation of heat I think that it is more complex than the tipping point model. I think that some of the tipping points is rather a temporary stage. I think the end game is a change from deep water circulation (AMOC etc) to a more surface temperature driven climate. This means that a lot of more energy will be transported above or at the surface rather than as deep water streams. My theory is that Antactica and Artic will see cooler winters and warmer summers if the future. This means that we will see a lot of more extreme weather in the future, and this is the danger for our civilisation.

  • @wendydelisse9778

    @wendydelisse9778

    Ай бұрын

    On the whole, Antarctica will keep getting warmer. The Southern Hemisphere, in which Antarctica is located, has a higher percentage of ocean than the Northern Hemisphere, meaning that ups and downs in surface temperatures on a time scale of roughly 90-years or less have less of an effect on the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere. Ocean regions are good heat sinks, absorbing heat in hot years and decades, and releasing heat in colder years and decades, moderating year to year and decade to decade planetwide temperature trends. Also, there is close to 360-degree access by ocean heat to the Antarctic Circle, very much unlike the case with the Arctic Circle which has about 60 degrees of access to ocean heat, most of which access is in the North Atlantic Ocean and would therefore be strongly affected by an AMOC shutdown. One can expect continuation of near universal Southern Hemisphere surface warming, whether or not the AMOC is mostly shut down. In fact, most of the world outside of the North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic Ocean will continue to get warmer when the AMOC mostly shuts down, as well as the Chukchi Sea region of the Arctic Ocean north of the Bering Strait, since that portion of the Arctic Ocean is little affected by the AMOC.

  • @tomaseriksson4533

    @tomaseriksson4533

    Ай бұрын

    @@wendydelisse9778 Thanks for the long answer. You had some really good arguments against my theory. I'm no expert so it is hard to understand all relations.

  • @wendydelisse9778

    @wendydelisse9778

    Ай бұрын

    In the short term, the injection of SO2 into the atmosphere by the Indonesian island volcano of Gunung Ruang, located to the south of the Philippine island of Mindinao, will have a retarding effect on warming in the polar regions in 2024 and 2025. That volcanic island, which formerly had a peak at an altitude of 725 meters above sea level, began the process of blowing its top on Tuesday April 16 2024. Longer term though, beyond the year 2025, the CO2 from the combustion of some 100 million barrels per day of world liquid fuel production will continue to cause warming of the region within the Antarctic Circle. The eia dot gov SHORT TERM ENERGY OUTOOK, Release date: Apr. 9, 2024, predicts Global liquid fuels consumption (current forecast) (million barrels per day) of 102.9 in 2024 and 104.3 in 2025. Short version: Despite the occasional volcano, the long term trend is that more CO2 results in more warming within the Antarctic Circle. Mankind's continued addition of CO2 into Earth's atmosphere results in an ever increasing "equilibrium mean surface temperature" for Earth. Roughly speaking, if CO2 were to suddenly become constant rather than increasing, Earth would gradually increases its temperature in a process taking about 600 years to achieve a value almost reaching its equilibrium mean surface temperature. The majority of the warming process of nearing the equilibrium mean surface temperature takes place in the first 240 years or so, and will include a "meltwater pulse", a geologically sudden rise of sea level.

  • @AGWUK

    @AGWUK

    Ай бұрын

    I think the key points are that, firstly, nature works to achieve balance; secondly water moves a lot more heat than air and therefore the AMOC is much more effective at moving heat poleward. It follows that if the AMOC moves less heat from the equatorial regions towards the poles then the heat imbalance will grow and the climate system will find other ways of moving that heat. I’m sure this has been modelled but I don’t know what the models predict - but nothing good, I am certain.

  • @wendydelisse9778

    @wendydelisse9778

    Ай бұрын

    If less heat gets transported poleward by the AMOC from tropical and subtropical latitudes, then temperature builds up in the already warm tropical and subtropical regions, until a new balance is reached. Such a temperature build up would likely make some low altitude locations too hot for humans on a season basis, or even in some cases on a year round temperature average basis. Some extra heat would simply benignly radiate from the surface into outer space. Some extra heat would use strengthened thunderstorms to loft "latent heat" to high enough altitude that the amount of CO2 is close to negligible, where that latent heat would convert to sensible heat when water vapor condensed out into some mixture of rain and snow, and then radiate into outer space from high altitude with little interference from CO2. At first, this process might sound benign, but especially in maritime regions that are not especially close to the Equator, it is often not benign. Strong inflow can lead to "vortical" thunderstorms, which in turn can lead very quickly to severely powerful tropical low pressure systems, in a temporarily runaway process referred to as "rapid development". Near the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, a sea surface temperature at or above 29 3/4 degrees Celsius (85.55 degrees Fahrenheit) makes rapid development much more likely than at lower sea surface temperatures. For a given set of pressure and windspeed and temperature and relative humidity conditions, evaporation of ocean water is approximately proportional to wind speed. Wind speed goes up, evaporation rate increases, the amount of latent heat increases allowing thunderstorms to become more powerful, and then wind speed goes up even further, beginning the rapid intensification cycle anew. That is the rapid development cycle. The result can be a category 5 storm with less than 2 days notice to coastal communities. When air is warmer at the tropics, there is on average both more "sensible heat" and more "latent heat" that gets aerially conveyed to the polar regions for any given set of global wind conditions. That is the main remaining way that the extra heat in the tropics would escape from the tropics in case the AMOC mostly shuts down. Technically, a very very tiny amount of the extra heat would get "conducted" poleward by way of the lithosphere. Conduction is a great heat transfer mechanism when only a fraction of a meter of distance is involved, for example when boiling water in a metal pan that conducts heat from a burner or heating element to the water being boiled. However, temperature studies of cave systems reveal that with 120 meters or so or greater of cave depth, seasonal temperature variation is close to zero when there is no significant wind flow within the cave. It is many millions of meters from the tropics to the poles, meaning that while there is technically some conduction of heat poleward by way of the lithosphere, the amount of heat thus conducted from the tropics is small enough to be disregarded for practical purposes. If the amount of heat conducted by way of the lithosphere is negligible for a distance of 120 meters, then it will also be negligible for an even greater distance that is on the order of many millions of meters.

  • @0MVR_0
    @0MVR_0Ай бұрын

    the author of the book is a journalist

  • @yorkiebuck
    @yorkiebuckАй бұрын

    Yes it's unusually cold in Europe right now that is true especially after this non-winter we've had. Bit early to call an AMOC shutdown though, But certainly it rivals any corresponding cold spells I can remember in the late 70s/80s/mid 90s. We are going to beat near zero with -3C here tonight. Best of Luck with the boiler!

  • @BufordTGleason
    @BufordTGleasonАй бұрын

    What effect will the rapid unexplained jump in seas surface temperatures in 2023 have on future predictions?

  • @alanj9978

    @alanj9978

    Ай бұрын

    Don't think anyone knows yet. Everyone's waiting to see if it was a one-off or if all the models are blown out.

  • @jajajaja2606
    @jajajaja2606Ай бұрын

    I've noticed on Windy weather app that the surface temperatures of lakes and other bodies of sweetwater throughout out the world are almost uniformly lower that the surface temperature of the closest ocean/sea. While I'm not a specialist in the field, it seems really weird, as on a sunny day I'd expect the smaller body of water to be warmer. I wonder if this couldn't be a symptom of another tipping point - connected to depleted heat capacity of the oceans. I do hope it's just a weird coincidence, because I guess this would be a very significant event. Do you have any thoughts on that?

  • @chriswarren-smith62
    @chriswarren-smith62Ай бұрын

    Dramatic footage from Dubai in other channels. Lots of comments about god etc but no mention of CC.

  • @gehwissen3975

    @gehwissen3975

    Ай бұрын

    "?Cloud seeding? " is their top talking point. Just as if Arabs are dumb like sh_t. 'The rate of change is to high for any adaptation'... Fits as well with mental adaptation.

  • @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    Ай бұрын

    Scapegoats are very popular: God, ExxonMobil, you name it. In reality, the enemy is us.

  • @baneverything5580

    @baneverything5580

    29 күн бұрын

    See the very old news about weather manipulation there. Even CNN reported on the "cloud zapping."

  • @jimtaggert42
    @jimtaggert42Ай бұрын

    thank you

  • @dyslexicdays
    @dyslexicdaysАй бұрын

    Please talk about the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Number. 2019. Hot climate models predict weather.

  • @hbath1
    @hbath1Ай бұрын

    Thanks Paul. It would be great if you could share screen so the material is easier to read, rather than video your screen?

  • @AH-gk9we
    @AH-gk9weАй бұрын

    So if the north cools doesn’t that mean that all that warmth is circulating in the south? And won’t Antarctica melt faster?

  • @EmeraldView
    @EmeraldViewАй бұрын

    Cascading tipping points tipping is going to be an epic event. Geologically it will happen in the blink of an eye.

  • @user-jk3ht5hn3m
    @user-jk3ht5hn3mАй бұрын

    Run to failure for to many is the nature of their being.

  • @rdallas81
    @rdallas81Ай бұрын

    Hello. I'm Paul Beckwith! CLASSIC😊

  • @DrSmooth2000
    @DrSmooth2000Ай бұрын

    No heat pump?

  • @Thorny_Misanthrope
    @Thorny_MisanthropeАй бұрын

    If the AMOC shuts down, wouldn’t it be possible that albedo would increase and cause more cooling overall?

  • @earthsystem
    @earthsystemАй бұрын

    As usual scientists never say, “Enough is enough, STOP & let the climate heal.” Scientists (I AM ONE) just keep analyzing the damage to publish-or-perish. Scientist will keep writing papers scrutinizing environmental damage until extinction. As a scientist, I am disgusted by scientists.

  • @tsg2009

    @tsg2009

    Ай бұрын

    Nah mate, clowns don't know how or want to listen

  • @BufordTGleason

    @BufordTGleason

    Ай бұрын

    How do you propose to stop emissions yet able to fertilize grow water transport and refrigerate the food that is required to keep 8 billion humans alive…. that would result in a mass starvation event probably not too different than crop failures brought on by climate change.

  • @stefanobautista5535

    @stefanobautista5535

    Ай бұрын

    Amen.

  • @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    Ай бұрын

    Isn't science the reason we're f__ked?

  • @andrewmeiklem5098

    @andrewmeiklem5098

    Ай бұрын

    If I have children, will they one day ask me why?

  • @OpenToInfo
    @OpenToInfoАй бұрын

    The twice seasonal Arctic tropopause heat lift and the added planetary insolence that is not in the models -is not even possible to be included in them due to assumptions and constraints - which the Inuit observations concerning this additional heat prove, needs to be factored in (where the sun sets for the annual polar day has moved to an opposite side of a mountain; a couple more hours of hunt-able twilight; polar night navigating stars in the wrong place). The SOUSY radar on Svalbard documents this double seasonal lift. That installation (if maintained) will provide helpful data to test the assertion that the AMOC shutdown process will be as significant as assumed factor in cooling the Norther Hemisphere (as currently understood, it is large/dominate). The shutdown cooling will be countered by the insolence of the increased refraction, and the permafrost (land and sea bed) will add methane which will impact everywhere, but first, in the Arctic night. The 2022 IRA, which has afforded fossil carbon companies pre-qualification under the exemptions in the 1964 Clean Air Act for 100% of both tax credits and hydrogen means that the hidden-in-plain-sight policy of ‘clean’ hydrogen is the means to extract and burn every drop of petrocarbon that can be tapped. It also means that a militarized sulfate injection into the stratosphere is the default policy to “mitigating" the mess. Hydrogen’s CO2e of 11.8, due to its outcompeting methane for the OH radical, defines much of what is felt to be a known - this based on past climatic dynamics - to be other than, and significantly so, motivated reasoning …especially since prior to the G7 in 2006, the GMT that science held to be an upper boundary for the resilience of the Holocene climatic system was 1ºC. The AMOC remains key, but with the AABW injection ceasing in 2014, how much of an observer bias about the dominance of the AMOC an assumption that what occurs in one of the thee ocean systems that the Southern Ocean impacts is as causal as it is assumed?

  • @donaldkupczyk8284
    @donaldkupczyk8284Ай бұрын

    Do you think that the current global radioactive uranium ash emissions from coal fired power stations being around 1 million tons in 2023 is having effects on any of the tipping points mentioned.

  • @daveyboon9433
    @daveyboon9433Ай бұрын

    If the blue and red arrows cancel each other out its the ENSO that matters.

  • @TennesseeJed
    @TennesseeJedАй бұрын

    Paul, things ain't lookin' too good, are they?

  • @JimmyMarquardsen

    @JimmyMarquardsen

    Ай бұрын

    I answer not for Paul, but for Gaia: No!

  • @TennesseeJed

    @TennesseeJed

    Ай бұрын

    @@JimmyMarquardsen I know Gaia, I know.😞

  • @TennesseeJed

    @TennesseeJed

    Ай бұрын

    @@jeanlabaut5242 Led Zeppelin says in their song "When the Levy Breaks", -cryin' won't help ya, and prayin' won't do ya no good-

  • @JimmyMarquardsen

    @JimmyMarquardsen

    Ай бұрын

    @@TennesseeJed You can't let go and you can't hold on, You can't go back and you can't stand still, If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will. The Wheel Lyrics: Robert Hunter Music: Jerry Garcia, Bill Kreutzmann

  • @TennesseeJed

    @TennesseeJed

    Ай бұрын

    @@JimmyMarquardsen I believe that song was inspired by the laws of thermodynamics as the beatnik poet Alan Ginsberg saw them.

  • @ashergoney
    @ashergoneyАй бұрын

    Sound Amplification On The Video is Very Low. Good Going,..

  • @ashergoney

    @ashergoney

    Ай бұрын

    B positive blood type both Toxic and Radioactive at 32 Litres of Total Alcohol Consumed at 41plus, Height And Weight Since October 2001 Is 95kgs at 5 feet 7 inches Without Shoe Soles, Shoe Size 8

  • @shawngrinter2747
    @shawngrinter2747Ай бұрын

    Where’s Shackleton?

  • @PaulHBeckwith

    @PaulHBeckwith

    Ай бұрын

    I’ll get him on soon!!

  • @danielfranklin2344
    @danielfranklin2344Ай бұрын

    your boiler hit a tipping point :(

  • @user-bp8vy5gy5n
    @user-bp8vy5gy5nАй бұрын

    So goodbye to chocolate then.

  • @noahking4725
    @noahking4725Ай бұрын

    Behemoth the most high is capable of bringing his sword upon him.

  • @thomas52905
    @thomas52905Ай бұрын

    Your sound is always low.

  • @tunneloflight
    @tunneloflightАй бұрын

    Individual pieces of a complex dynamical system can serve as indicators of the state of the system and warnings. However, doing simple linear analysis is generally not useful or effective. i.e. Seeing that AMOC shutdown leads to a cooling of northern Europe in a simple linear analysis does not mean that is what will happen. The complex reactions throughout the interlinked systems can cause that or nothing, or the reverse. This is NOT an argument that this isn't important. To the contrary, it is a caution NOT to take such simple analyses at face value and to presume that things won't be so bad, because .... For example, shutdown of the AMOC will cool the North Atlantic through loss of the heat from the Gulf stream. That will lead to that heat going eastward to Spain, and/or stagnation leading to grave rises in heat in much of the eastern and southeastern US. Each of those will destabilize aspects of the global circulation in the atmosphere. Exactly what that may do we cannot adequately predict. All of our atmospheric models are based on regimes so different from this that they are likely to not produce valid results. One impact may be heating of the equatorial atmosphere up to 35-40 degrees north. That may then deepen the atmosphere and take us past the thermodynamic limits that constrain the atmosphere to a three cell system. If so, that may cause the heat to flow north destabilizing the three cells and collapsing them to one. This is not a prediction. It is only to point out that the system may behave in ways nothing like the simple analyses suggest. Pursuing that thought a little... If the atmosphere converts to a one cell system, all agriculture is over in the northern hemisphere. The rain bands those depend on will be gone, replaced by more massive cyclonic systems moving much further north. Add to this that the dying oceanic circulation likely leads to dramatic oxygen level reductions leading to anoxic zones along upwelling areas at coast lines and giant anoxic whirlpools lethal to most life in the ocean. And that may lead to purple cyanobacter production, further decreasing atmospheric oxygen production and release instead of H2S, along with iron raining out in the oceans. Complex systems are complex. They must be handled as such.

  • @gwoodlogger4068
    @gwoodlogger4068Ай бұрын

    The world population will make a new layer of carbohydrates 😶‍🌫️

  • @JohnnyMotel99

    @JohnnyMotel99

    Ай бұрын

    along with a thin layer of gold, silver, cobalt, lithium, tantalum, indium, gallium, niobium, selenium and zirconium....

  • @philwilson609
    @philwilson609Ай бұрын

    Paul, the volume on your videos is so quiet that even at full blast I can barely hear you.

  • @joeyjennings9548
    @joeyjennings9548Ай бұрын

    volcanic 🌋🌎 global cooling?

  • @terencefield3204
    @terencefield3204Ай бұрын

    Oh dear me Paul! I hope you dog and Shackleton are going to be ok. Freezing every day in northern France. Dreadful and from for old farts like me,

  • @toram6210
    @toram6210Ай бұрын

    30 years later : nothing changed

  • @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    Ай бұрын

    Maybe you need to get out of the house? Out here in nature, my house, everything is changing, fast.

  • @rogermooijman1333

    @rogermooijman1333

    Ай бұрын

    I hope for you you got wiser

  • @nightcrawler2937
    @nightcrawler2937Ай бұрын

    Are you saying humanity has another million years left considering all things?

  • @lightclawshadowmarsch8167
    @lightclawshadowmarsch8167Ай бұрын

    Snow pack in Alaska as of today is 126% above normal. And Greenland ice pack is. Gained 500 million tons of snow. Over winter. Equal to the year without a summer 1815

  • @kti5682

    @kti5682

    Ай бұрын

    According to nsidc the overall artic ice cover is still lower than the previous minimum year, so the energy imbalance is still arriving at the Arctic.

  • @kilobravo737

    @kilobravo737

    Ай бұрын

    All of Alaska or the Anchorage bowl. I am on the Kenai and there is essentially no snow pack.

  • @gehwissen3975

    @gehwissen3975

    Ай бұрын

    It looks like you've drawn some conclusions from your regional observations... What does the present have to do with a volcanic eruption?

  • @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    Ай бұрын

    Guess what! I just discovered an endless supply of magic pixi dust under Kansas! You wanna buy in?

  • @lightclawshadowmarsch8167

    @lightclawshadowmarsch8167

    Ай бұрын

    No I use my radar app and global temperatures an satellite live feeds MyRadar Tutorial - Radar Layer / MyRadar Weather News kzread.info/dash/bejne/fH2rvK-se8bFfqQ.html Radar & Satellite Imagery | MyRadar Tutorial / MyRadar Weather News kzread.info/dash/bejne/kYqnw5RwmcLVfKg.html

  • @JimmyMarquardsen
    @JimmyMarquardsenАй бұрын

    I do not care. And I'm nothing. I am only an infinitesimal drop in an infinitely large ocean. And I'm insignificant. I have no influence on anything. But I might be a tipping point, to be fair. And I still don't care.

  • @andrewphilip3308

    @andrewphilip3308

    Ай бұрын

    you have an issue with your moods, friend

  • @JimmyMarquardsen

    @JimmyMarquardsen

    Ай бұрын

    @@andrewphilip3308 I mean it honestly: Tell me about it. Please. Friend.

  • @CatsInHats-S.CrouchingTiger

    @CatsInHats-S.CrouchingTiger

    Ай бұрын

    @@andrewphilip3308he is in a state of helplessness

  • @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    Ай бұрын

    I. I. I. I. Your narcissism is overwhelming.

  • @JimmyMarquardsen

    @JimmyMarquardsen

    Ай бұрын

    @@user-ym5hx6ky2m Yes it is, tell me about it.

  • @andrewphilip3308
    @andrewphilip3308Ай бұрын

    You are making love to your anxiety.

  • @zrebbesh
    @zrebbeshАй бұрын

    Stop with the "it might happen" or the "we might head it off if we try really hard." It's too late. It has happened. We did it. We are now in an ice age termination event.Our post-eocene ice age could have lasted another million years, but we screwed it up. We melted the permafrost and now positive feedback via methane release will finish the job no matter what.

  • @therealdesidaru
    @therealdesidaruАй бұрын

    "The climate is going to change." Is the response that I get from young people. I'm in the "Let it Rot" camp now. I just dont care anymore. 😊

  • @Nero_1069

    @Nero_1069

    Ай бұрын

    Me too, but i do still hope we get a zombie apocalypse as well.

  • @therealdesidaru

    @therealdesidaru

    Ай бұрын

    @@Nero_1069 Nah. I just want to chill out fish and get high.

  • @QueenoftheStarrySky-tf7ro

    @QueenoftheStarrySky-tf7ro

    Ай бұрын

    You definitely care if you are watching this

  • @QueenoftheStarrySky-tf7ro

    @QueenoftheStarrySky-tf7ro

    Ай бұрын

    You want to forget but you can’t. And as you get high, you can’t free yourself of the thoughts of climate that ruin the whole trip

  • @volkerengels5298

    @volkerengels5298

    Ай бұрын

    " chill out fish and get high" - is enough. "Let it Rot" - is an unnecessary curse that only reduces the high. May be the fish as well.

  • @JackFrost008
    @JackFrost008Ай бұрын

    the ice isnt melting anyway... no matter what they spout.

  • @dorsetbigcats6292
    @dorsetbigcats6292Ай бұрын

    No don't worry, it'll be grand. Tell you what, I will come back here in 5 years and am willing to bet real money all will be more or less the same.

  • @user-co7qs7yq7n
    @user-co7qs7yq7nАй бұрын

    - We live in the same climate as it was 5 million years ago - I have an explanation regarding the cause of the climate change and global warming, it is the travel of the universe to the deep past since May 10, 2010. Each day starting May 10, 2010 takes us 1000 years to the past of the universe. Today April 22, 2024 the state of our universe is the same as it was 5 million and 96 thousand years ago. On october 13, 2026 the state of our universe will be at the point 6 million years in the past. On june 04, 2051 the state of our universe will be at the point 15 million years in the past. On june 28, 2092 the state of our universe will be at the point 30 million years in the past. On april 02, 2147 the state of our universe will be at the point 50 million years in the past. The result is that the universe is heading back to the point where it started and today we live in the same climate as it was 5 million years ago. Mohamed BOUHAMIDA.

  • @alanj9978

    @alanj9978

    Ай бұрын

    Who would upvote this babbling nonsense?

  • @user-co7qs7yq7n

    @user-co7qs7yq7n

    Ай бұрын

    @@alanj9978 Anyone who does not believe that the climate changed for the reason I mentioned should wait for cancer to disappear very soon because of this reverse movement, I will explain: the human body's immune system will be stimulated, activated and stronger as a result of this reverse process, which results in the disappearance of the cancer.

  • @DrMichael-T-7777
    @DrMichael-T-7777Ай бұрын

    Aren’t you embarrassed to peddle this unscientific drivel? Where is the application of the scientific method ? Where is the solid science supporting that these chain of exaggerated sensational speculations has any connection to physical reality?

  • @vincentkosik403

    @vincentkosik403

    Ай бұрын

    If you demand links to scientific papers that are based on the scientific method and peer review, along with evidence on the field studies, link up to NATURES BATS LAST WITH PROFESS OK R GUY MCPHERSON. He does so...other than that, don't be lazy yourself and cry about not having them

  • @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    @user-ym5hx6ky2m

    Ай бұрын

    Allow me to answer all of your questions, my son: Reality. Try it, you might have fun.

  • @rogermooijman1333

    @rogermooijman1333

    Ай бұрын

    Just watch the previous video’s for all your questions. You might start to feel embarrassed about your tweet though

  • @MaxMitch22

    @MaxMitch22

    Ай бұрын

    You're sounding rather irrational now

  • @john-lenin
    @john-leninАй бұрын

    Sound is working for me.

  • @haitianhoodoo265

    @haitianhoodoo265

    Ай бұрын

    Now it's working . Excuse me. Thank you, Paul .

  • @earthsystem

    @earthsystem

    Ай бұрын

    @@haitianhoodoo265 you probably haven’t noticed, KZread turns off sound until the video is vetted, which might take 15 minutes or so

  • @haitianhoodoo265

    @haitianhoodoo265

    Ай бұрын

    @@earthsystem oh wow, thanks so much

  • @eriklaken1025
    @eriklaken1025Ай бұрын

    Thank you Paul

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