good topic. Agree with Eric, you need holding power. Also agree with Kelvin, you need a big buffer for your monthly mortgage vs your income or you will live a very "exciting" life.

@learninvestearnsave

Ай бұрын

Definitely 💯

One can make millions from property investments if one does it in a carefully planned asset progression way, and started off young. From BTO HDB or EC to 2 private condos for a couple and upgrade along the way to bigger sized condos, and then for a small handful of property investors, they can finally reach the landed freehold category which is the cream of the crop in properties. This is because of the smallest supply of landed properties in land scarce Singapore. And when the property is of a premium nature in physical aspects as well as in perpetual great demand to supply ratio, the long term value of it will rise at a good rate of return. And we are talking about a high quantum value in a landed property of average 4 million sum. Even if the rate of return is just 3% average per annum along the way during the asset progression plan, compounded for two to three decades, it can easily make a few millions for that entire span at the end of day when the person decides to call it quits to end the whole property asset progression plan. This is because of the usage of leverage on high quantum value of assets that can result in large absolute returns at the end of a long period.

For property prices to go down, one or more out of the three must happen: 1) interest rates to go significantly higher 2) govt draconian cooling measures 3) deep recession. 1) we have likely seen the peak of rates. Even if rates go higher, I doubt it will be very much higher. And even with higher rates over the last few years, it didn’t create a single dent in the property mkt at all 2) for govt to roll out very harsh measures, it will also imply that prices have to go up a lot higher than current levels. So either way, it won’t be good to wait, solely based on this factor alone 3) my guess is as good as yours. However, would need to remind everyone that prices can remain stagnant before going down, go up first before correcting or straight go down shall a deep recession hits now. If it’s for own stay, then no point speculating, especially if buying a very low volatile property such as hdb or have negative cashflow from renting a place. Over the long term, if u are in the camp that next decade will be generally higher interest rates on average (due to loose monetary and fiscal policies by central banks and inflationary environment due to multi polar world), buying a property for rental yield is no longer as attractive as before due to lower nett rental yield moving forward Hence to buy a property to invest, I will have to go for capital gains. Hence either must be undervalue (good safety margin) or something with strong demand and low supply dynamics (landed, 3-4 bedder units in highly sought after projects etc.)

Very balanced discussion. Most people tend to be overly obsessed with profits & quick gains, ignoring the downsides. Price appreciation is not guaranteed. When one sells high, he/she also buys at higher price for the next property, whether it's downgrading or upgrading. There're other costs involved which people usually do not factor in, such as interest payment, stamp duties, agent fees. There're also forgone opportunity costs if the $ for paying property can be invested elsewhere, such as S&P 500, etc.

When speculating on SG properties, people always seems to focus on the supply scarcity without realising its sg economy that powers the demand. SG economy has been growing exponentially as it transformed from 3rd world country to first world country, however can it sustain this rate of growth? Can we really judge the consistency of returns based on track records in the growth phase? Properties only stand out from other assets class because of leverage and ease of holding (provided no over leverage). My take is that the ease in holding properties is the true reasons for its perceived consistency in returns, as owner occupied properties owners r not affected by any price fluctuations and continue to commit to the forced saving, in this manner capital gains r only a matter of time. The same rule applies to most asset class beside commodities

I think there’s very vague understanding of the entire property planning game. We can have a chat over this HDB upgraders group perspective.

I believe property price will continue to increase in the short term. Demand continues to increase and in my opinion, one very key reason is: Realtor agencies aggressively recruiting agents. This led to (1) more people to paint beautiful stories in order to entice the general public to upgrade and (2) these newly recruited agents are being "psycho" to upgrade as well, thus entering the upgrading game. However, I also believe the property price will reach a point where even those above-average earners start to struggle with the price point and some even have to default (of course, we have very good govt. that always roll out support in downturns). Once that happens, good luck to those in this upgrading game. End of the day, realtors benefit. That's why huat kuay ma

@christyhilton1919

Ай бұрын

Totally agree. No transaction, no food on the table for agents. That's why they have been pushy. Lots of people don't get it and commit beyond them. Then, they start to complain. So stupid..

A few thoughts to share: 1. On the topic of property price forever rising, i believe the gov implement cooling measures to make sure property prices do not rocket way beyond some sort of median income. There must be some link to the income level. Sg labour cost has been increasing tremendously over the past years, making sg becoming more "saturated" in rise of income. I believe this rise cannot go indefinitely, which means at some point, property price will plateau also. 2. On the topic of holdong power, property investment involves heavy leverage which does not come for free. The longer you hold, you are actually paying a lot of interest as compared to buy and hold for stocks.

I think buying property has many factors for price increase, but some factors like common sizing for most buyers, right beside MRT, near to good school. All these factors will ensure housing price stay high. That is why is important to choose the right property to suit for own needs, the bonus will the the above factors.

First Cooling Measure for SG private property market started in Dec 2011 not 2009…

MSR is more stricter than TDSR.... so it means u can loan more on TDSR than on MSR.... very obvious some have ambitions to upgrde and some dont, and to maintain some form of harmony, the last portions of the video seems restraint on all....

boon tee is right, ultimately the advantage is using leverage buying property. If can leverage same amount as property to buy s&p 500 then the property seems a lot less attractive already

Wah you guys need to invite Eric or somebody the got the numbers. HDB and EC can borrow up to 30% of your income. Private can borrow up to 55% of your income IF you have no debt. A lot of condo in the 1.2-1.3m 3 bedder resale….

Property will nvr lose money in SG. It’s foolproof

Eric you need to use your business to buy industrial / commercial property with 120% loan. business owners can own alot more properties easily using their business than employee and self employed

Property is mainly for living. Similar to stocks, there are projects that appreciates and those that lose money. But unlike stocks, you cannot afford to lose. As it requires high capital investment plus leverage.

passing the baton till it crash, see who is the unlucky one

Kelvin kena bombasted by property agent already? All must be eager to intro Kelvin which condo to buy 😂

if we just want to have a place to sleep then we aren't progressing in life. Is fine if one uses this as a bottom line but is a bottom we need to agree with.

Buying properties is like buying Bonds and equities. Be patient and wait for the crash to buy to get big profit. Some wait can be more than 10 years. In the meantime enjoy other types of investments

@xfall86

Ай бұрын

Properties will never crash lol. Esp in sg

@Farmersyoungseniors

Ай бұрын

@@xfall86 🍀

@Stat8989

Ай бұрын

If you have to take a mortgage, age is crucial for loan tenure. Not many can afford to wait 10 years.

"Staying in landed house in Singapore or Malaysia is difference", Eric don't be "Sohai la".

@MingJianYap

Ай бұрын

malaysia 3rd world country, singapore is the land of milk & honey. that's the 4D chess logic 😂

@Xamael666

Ай бұрын

Exactly! Was a wtf moment & Kelvin (including myself, S'porean btw) was offended when he said that....like a house is truly, only a house...Ppl in the US, Canada, Msia etc. don't make such a big deal about property....it's only in land scarce SG that property seems more "valuable"....like frogs in a small well thinking their well is so much more valuable lol

Same same but different....

Property market is cyclical

What if the market doesn’t crash … ask Warren Buffett. 😂

Unless financially you are comfortable to buy a condo. Why must be condo if you are just ok ok only and stress out yourself??

I don’t think we will see HDB prices keep increasing as what we've seen in the past few decades. 1) Political pressure. Property market is not like the stock market. If property prices consistently outpaces nominal GDP growth, it means that affordability is getting worse and it will create social tensions and political pressure. That's why the government steps in from time to time to cool the market, and now they are introducing new HDB policies (Standard, Plus and Prime which even have income ceiling for resale, renting restrictions, clawback etc). 2) Economy. Singapore's economy is already mature, growing at an average of ~2%pa. We're not returning to the days of double digit growth. 3) Demographics. Our citizen population growth will eventually slow down and level off, simply because our TFR is too low. Our TFR is currently ~0.97, while the replacement TFR is 2.1. Which means to say, in absence of immigration, each generation will be ~50% smaller than the previous generation. Sure, we're topping up our population with immigration, but there's also a limit. Just to stabilize our population in the long term, we have to accept close to ~50% foreign-born in our citizen population mix (because each generation of born Singaporean is shrinking by almost 50%). If we want to grow our citizen population, we have to accept maybe 60 or 70% foreign-born in our citizen population mix, which is unlikely because it's not sustainable and it creates a lot of political pressure/social tension. 4) Still demographics. The Baby boomer generation is going to naturally shrink in the coming decades. As Singapore's home ownership rate is very high, their kids will already have their own HDBs when they pass down their flats and they have to sell away one of their flats when inherit their parents' HDB flats. This is going to release greater supply from our existing housing stock, which puts downward pressure on prices. I'm not saying our housing market is going to crash. But those days of "Wah, my parents buy their HDB for $50K, now worth $500K!" days are over. Prices may fluctuate in some years (like last few years), but long term wise I think it's largely going to keep pace with nominal GDP growth (real GDP growth + inflation), which may be around 4% pa. But bear in mind that you have to adjust your capital appreciation for other costs. Eg; higher property taxes, interest expense, renovation, maintenance fee for Condo, etc. If the rate of appreciation is 4% pa while the interest rate is >4%, you’re actually making a loss. If you look back in history, there are many long periods where the property market is stagnant for many years, despite higher population and GDP growth in the past. And that’s not considering the cost of opportunity by investing in the stock market. If I’m not a high income earner, which most Singaporeans aren’t, I would rather buy HDB and invest the rest. There’s too much concentration risk and lack of liquidity for kinda subpar expected returns, even with leverage.

Singapore is primarily a rentier economy. We don't create much value from productive work or products. All these people constantly speculating and flipping property for profits are essentially parasites who do not contribute any value to the economy. As for how long this charade can on, who can say. But we are already one of the most expensive cities on Earth. Wages are already sky high yet the government constantly talks about ever increasing wages. At what point does the cost of doing business becomes so high it is no longer feasible to operate in Singapore? Property will keep rising forever?? Is it healthy for anything to keep rising forever? You want an example of something that keeps growing without limits, how about cancer?

Singapore property UP ONLY and TO THE MOON!!!!

SG landed and Msia landed is different la hor!

Property investment are for ppl that are very stable with financial matters and have lots of savings behind...for ppl that just upgrading and for own stay i dont think is consider as investment.. cos you still have long way to go with the loan or load ...

Upgrade for family use dont need think too much

I think private property can use TDSR vs HDB use MSR for loan

First!

Buy EC means you have to sell current one. Then stay where? Condo is more flexible

Condo absolutely is safer than baba